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At what point would you lock down again?


Not_a_Number

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Back to the lockdown question, we've decided we're about to the point with high cases and high hospitalizations that extra car trips will be off. We had to do this during the last surge as well, which really delayed my son getting his driving hours for his permit. Last time, the police were not doing as many traffic stops, and it got really hairy to drive at all. So far, they are out, and it makes a big difference in the number of reckless drivers.

DH still has quite a bit of driving time for work--last time, he worked in a facility very close to home. 

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12 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

School outbreaks and what it means for hospital capacity - by Katelyn Jetelina - Your Local Epidemiologist (substack.com)

Well, to no one’s surprise, we’re setting records for kids across the nation as schools re-open. We have no national COVID19 school surveillance program in place, so we’re relying on anecdotal evidence, state-level data, and data gurus in the private sector to piece together an epidemiological picture.

Mississippi also has a pretty great school case tracker. Schools reported 1,118 COVID-19 outbreaks infecting 18,825 students and 3,600 teachers/staff in the month of August. In the past week, they reported 123 school-related outbreaks infecting 2,869 students and quarantining more than 15,000 students.

Thanks to Burbio's K-12 School Opening Tracker — which actively monitors 1,200 districts, including the 200 largest school districts in the U.S.— we have a national picture of school closures. More than 1,400 schools across 278 districts have closed in 35 states. Unfortunately, this is just the beginning as many schools in the West and Northeast have yet to start.

Last week there were 251,781 new pediatric cases in the United States. This is an all time record for the pandemic. According to the American Academy of Pediatrics, kids represented 1 in 4 Americans testing positive for COVID-19 last week. Unfortunately, this isn’t a complete picture; it’s likely an underestimate because Texas only reports 3% of pediatric cases and Nebraska isn’t reporting COVID-19 data since June.

As COVID19 is introduced into pediatric populations, we should closely follow the capacity of pediatric ICUs’ (PICU). While the pediatric hospitalization rate is holding steady at 0.8% (1 of ~125 pediatric cases are hospitalized), this could really start adding up. If an estimated 34 million kids are susceptible to COVID19 and 33% of the hospitalized kids go to the PICU, that means we will need 6,800 PICU beds. The U.S. only has 4,500.

I tried to get an understanding of where we are at with PICU capacity. Unfortunately, the CDC and/or AAP and/or anyone else isn’t publicly reporting this data. The NYT ICU bed map is fantastic, but doesn’t allow the reader to display just pediatric ICU’s.

If we zoom on specific hospitals, we can start seeing the problem emerge. For example, Texas Children’s Hospital — a Houston hospital system that has more than 4.3 million annual patient encounters — currently has 150 COVID19 patients and reporting zero available PICU beds. Their PICU is at 100% capacity.

It's getting harder and harder for me to be patient about kid vaccine approval. 

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3 hours ago, ktgrok said:

One the one hand, asking them to prove it reduces viral load, if they are saying it reduces viral load, makes sense. 

On the other hand, asking for the specific farm the grapefruit was picked and on what day, meh. And asking for safety data is weird - shouldn't that already exist if they were already on the market? OR, are they considered a supplement so never had FDA approval for the original intention, so having to start from scratch?

FDA approval of a drug includes approval of very strict manufacturing methods. They inspect factories, look very closely at supply chains, standardization of materials, etc., and any changes to manufacturing methods or materials must be submitted to the FDA in writing. This nasal spray company is basically saying "we just buy grapefruit seeds from some company, we have no idea where they're from or when they're harvested," which may be fine for an OTC nasal spray with no medical claims, but not for an FDA-approved drug.

I haven't read much about XClear in the last few months, but when I last looked into it, the evidence for efficacy consisted of an in vitro study showing it could kill the virus and a study with only 3 subjects (not blinded, no placebo). And I believe the guy who conducted that study was associated with Xclear in some way (consultant or former employee or something). It would be great if it works, but we've seen plenty of substances that seemed plausible in a test tube but were ineffective in proper RCTs. And if Xclear wants FDA approval as a drug, then they need to meet the manufacturing requirements that go along with that.

ETA: People can still buy Xclear over the counter, if they want to use it, so the lack of FDA approval isn't preventing anyone from getting or using it.

Edited by Corraleno
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17 hours ago, TexasProud said:

So it is homecoming week. Facebook is full of pep rallies at high school and junior high . Stands are packed inside the gyms, no masks.  A senior adult group is packed in a bus to go to Branson. Life goes on.  

Our positivity for the two counties is close to 20 percent.  One county 234 cases per 100,000 the other 175. 

Well, not for everyone. There will be deadly consequences for many. Needless deaths, at this point.

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School started this week here in upstate NY. I’m a teacher- sent home a sick kid this week, have another out on quarantine. My own child was quarantined today from a positive case in her classroom from the second day of school.   The first time she’s been in a classroom since March 2019 😞

People- keep your kids home if they have symptoms. 
It’s going to be another long year.

We didn’t even make it a full 5 days before we had kids with Covid in our rooms. At least we have mask mandates and testing or vaccinations required here. 

(we chose not to homeschool this year because my parents who were watching/ homeschooling the kids during the day can’t do it any longer, it’s just too much for them)

But going on year 3 of this from the teacher side is feeling overwhelming today. I really thought about taking a year leave of absence…

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2 hours ago, Dynamite5 said:

Well, not for everyone. There will be deadly consequences for many. Needless deaths, at this point.

The posted who said that has been careful and stressed about the pandemic. I think it was an expression of frustrated futility about how others view their libertine actions, not saying that she agrees. 

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7 hours ago, cintinative said:

FYI--new initiative from the President to provide at -cost home COVID testing kits:

To improve access to rapid tests for all consumers, top retailers that sell at-home, rapid COVID-19 tests—Walmart, Amazon, and Kroger—will offer to sell those tests at-cost for the next three months. This means that Americans will be able to buy these tests at their local retailers or online for up to 35 percent less starting by the end of this week. The Administration has also taken action so that Medicaid must cover at-home tests for free for beneficiaries, and that states should ensure that any tools they use to manage at-home testing do not establish arbitrary barriers for people seeking care.

This is fantastic news!! Ds came home from the first day of school with a fever of 102F and other symptoms. We ran a Binax—negative—but those are pricey—especially if you do the proper followup three days later.

ETA: his only outings in the past few weeks were to the dentist and to school for orientation—so I am feeling 0% excited about all of the exposures our kids are having right now. 
 

 

Edited by prairiewindmomma
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20 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Yes, the mob behavior aspect is what bothers me. What happens if the employers/ mob switches over to favoring being anti-mask, pro-let-er-rip (or whatever the current issue might change to)?  I might agree with the "mob" right now but I don't agree with mobbish behavior. 

In my estimation the "mob" is already where you fear they might be: anti-mask and pro-let-er-rip.

Nothing remotely mob-like about those in positions of authority acting to defend lives in alignment with the science.

There is no equivalence in the positions.

Bill

 

 

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17 hours ago, Spy Car said:

In my estimation the "mob" is already where you fear they might be: anti-mask and pro-let-er-rip.

Nothing remotely mob-like about those in positions of authority acting to defend lives in alignment with the science.

There is no equivalence in the positions.

Bill

 

 

I was referring to the mob behaviors of doxxing and publicly shaming people who behave badly. I never said or even intimated  that authorities putting into place and enforcing policies to protect public health was mob like. 

Edited by Jean in Newcastle
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2 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I was referring to the mob behaviors of doxxing and publicly shaming people who behave badly. I never said or even intimidated that authorities putting into place and enforcing policies to protect public health was mob like. 

You did say, "What happens if the employers/ mob switches over to favoring being anti-mask, pro-let-er-rip (or whatever the current issue might change to)?"

And I think the "mob" already is anti-mask and pro-let-er-rip.

So I see false equivalences.

Bill

 

 

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2 hours ago, Hilltopmom said:

We didn’t even make it a full 5 days before we had kids with Covid in our rooms. At least we have mask mandates and testing or vaccinations required here. 

 

Same. Covid case by day 3. Maybe it came from outside of school, but still. 

Apparently because we're masking except during lunch and snack, and "distancing" while eating, none of us will be close contacts unless we are closer than 6 feet for longer than 15 minutes, or something like that. 🤔 

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46 minutes ago, Spy Car said:

You did say, "What happens if the employers/ mob switches over to favoring being anti-mask, pro-let-er-rip (or whatever the current issue might change to)?"

And I think the "mob" already is anti-mask and pro-let-er-rip.

So I see false equivalences.

Bill

 

 

Nope.  Selective quoting makes it very easy to make someone say what they weren't saying at all.

"

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23 hours ago, SeaConquest said:

Good. SAP fired the coughing Karen in the grocery store too, Janene Hoskovec.

About time we get serious with these people. Play stupid games; win stupid prizes. 

I am conflicted on this trend.  On one hand, I don't think that people should be able to get away with such bad behavior.  And the threat of "being thought badly of" is no longer a deterrent from bad behavior.  But on the other hand, I don't really like the thought of people being doxed and shamed.  So I am conflicted. "  (My reply to SeaConquest about the shaming of the women who were laughing at a teen sharing his grandmother's death)

"Yes, the mob behavior aspect is what bothers me. What happens if the employers/ mob switches over to favoring being anti-mask, pro-let-er-rip (or whatever the current issue might change to)?  I might agree with the "mob" right now but I don't agree with mobbish behavior."  My second complete quote which you did not quote in it's entirety. 

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55 minutes ago, Kanin said:

Same. Covid case by day 3. Maybe it came from outside of school, but still. 

Apparently because we're masking except during lunch and snack, and "distancing" while eating, none of us will be close contacts unless we are closer than 6 feet for longer than 15 minutes, or something like that. 🤔 

Yup that’s how it’s working here too… cuz you know, Covid isn’t airborne & kids don’t get in each other’s faces outside at recess when they aren’t masked. Err, not.

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19 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

I have already done that. See my vent thread. But I am bored with no one to talk to. Nothing i can do. And I am really, really angry.

I am so so terribly sorry, Texas Proud. I've always been pretty open about who I am. If you want someone to talk to, please feel free to friend me on FB. I am moving this weekend, but can be a friend if you need one. https://www.facebook.com/monique.b.labarre/

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https://www.npr.org/2021/09/10/1035885306/san-francisco-children-schools-vaccinated-covid-outbreaks-none-pediatric?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_term=nprnews&utm_campaign=npr&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR13F40NHf0BjCB_qDBVvg7Zt4h7BjTz9StBFLxqxTCN_GEnuog7kDbGdpg

Quote

There have been no COVID-19 outbreaks in San Francisco schools since students and educators went back into classrooms on Aug. 16, the San Francisco Department of Public Health announced Thursday, noting that about 90% of children ages 12 to 17 are fully vaccinated.

An outbreak, the department said, means there are "three or more cases in non-related households in which the source of infection occurred at the school, and not another setting."

While the department reported there have been 227 COVID-19 cases — out of 52,000 students and nearly 10,000 staff — the "vast majority" of those cases are occurring outside of schools.

 

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4 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

I mean, this was OBVIOUS. It was obvious that as soon as schools reopened, there'd be an incredible number of kids getting sick. This is why I felt so impatient in the first place... 

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/exclusive-us-decision-pfizer-covid-19-shot-kids-age-5-11-could-come-october-2021-09-10/

 

This is paywalled for me so hard to know how much faith to have in it but might be positive.

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17 hours ago, Hilltopmom said:

Yup that’s how it’s working here too… cuz you know, Covid isn’t airborne & kids don’t get in each other’s faces outside at recess when they aren’t masked. Err, not.

Yeah. Obviously they need to eat, but I wish they would at least acknowledge the risks of eating in a classroom. People seem to be pretending that it is safe. 

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So my area has been trending down for 3 weeks now, but yesterday Halloween Horror Nights started. My friend went and said it was a superspreader in the making. No attendance limits, people shoulder to shoulder, maybe 1/5th had on masks, etc. She double masked even outdoors, and is vaccinated, but man. I'm not looking forward to a spike from this. 

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1 hour ago, Innisfree said:

43.hospitals.with.full.ICUs.turned.him.away.

I would love to see data on adverse events from shots compared to adverse events from full hospitals in some way that is scaled for proportionality (obviously full hospitals are due to confluence of several factors in a way that adverse events are less likely to be).

I feel bad for people who do have real potentially vaccine-related complications, but TBH, even someone who develops Guillain-Barre or something it was likely primed to develop it the next time they fell ill or when they got their next vaccine for something "normal." It's not specific to vaccines. 

Also, I think the death rate from "no room at the hospital" is likely to be much higher than the death rate from even the worst vaccine complications. GBS has something like an 80% recover rate (I looked this up after someone whose relative got it post-Covid shot was warning everyone away from the shot. She has spoken out with misleading information about all kinds of vaccines before this though, so if her relative's GBS is actually due to another factor, she probably wouldn't entertain the idea.) 

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1 hour ago, Dynamite5 said:

This. This is my fear. I desperately wish hospitals could triage non-Covid patients over non-vaccinated Covid patients. 

People think of this stuff as happening in a perfect sequence, but in reality, beds open, beds fill. People who are appropriately triaged die while waiting. The person in front of them might be another heart attack victim or someone with a stroke, not someone with Covid. 

I am sure people move up and down the triage list as events unfold in real time. 

If it's really truly crisis care standards, I think there is some talk of "survivability" being the deciding factor between relatively equal claims on an ICU bed (or a vent, etc.), but again, that's assuming the patients you have that are being pitted against one another are vaccinated vs. unvaccinated, and not vaccinated vs. heart attack. There may be times the heart attack patient gets a bed and not the person with Covid that is vaccinated and vice versa.

So, yeah, the unvaccinated are driving the overwhelm, but de-prioritizing any individual who is unvaccinated might not even be beneficial in the big picture. 

I suppose if they start pulling the unvaccinated out of beds they already occupy, it might lead to a different outcome, but I don't know if they even entertain that idea with crisis care standards. At the very least, I can see it being more like, "we need this vent, and they have extensive lung damage; we've let them stay on it because 5% of people survive at this point, but now we have someone who is 75% likely to survive."

People in the know, feel free to correct me on this. 

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The UK tried survivability (specifically, a "fragility index") as a method of triaging people with COVID in the first lockdown. It ended up with a lot of people with autism and learning disabilities being wrongly refused ventilation due to being perceived as less able to survive (their disabilities meant they needed accommodations to give the expected result to indicate survivability on the tests, and none were available, not even the chaperoning they would usually have had in hospital).

There was quite a bit of scandal when a month afterwards, the NHS banned the index, but there is evidence some hospitals reintroduced it in the second wave, with the same result.

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Ok, tell me if I did the math correctly.  We had a HUGE, and I mean HUGE jump over the last week in cases.  Looking at the current cases ( I guess they consider all positives in the last 10 days to be current cases.)  I divided that number by the total number of people in the county.  My little town is in two counties. I did that and both of the counties have 2.5 percent of the total population that currently have Covid.  That seems ridiculously high, but maybe not?

Oh I looked at cumulative data and 6.7 percent of one county and 7.5 percent of another county have had Covid if you count from the beginning.

Edited by TexasProud
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2 hours ago, TexasProud said:

Ok, tell me if I did the math correctly.  We had a HUGE, and I mean HUGE jump over the last week in cases.  Looking at the current cases ( I guess they consider all positives in the last 10 days to be current cases.)  I divided that number by the total number of people in the county.  My little town is in two counties. I did that and both of the counties have 2.5 percent of the total population that currently have Covid.  That seems ridiculously high, but maybe not?

Oh I looked at cumulative data and 6.7 percent of one county and 7.5 percent of another county have had Covid if you count from the beginning.

About 10% of my county has had Covid, based on confirmed cases. The real number is likely higher because a lot of people here don't bother to test everyone in the household, (or even test at all). 

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46 minutes ago, MissLemon said:

About 10% of my county has had Covid, based on confirmed cases. The real number is likely higher because a lot of people here don't bother to test everyone in the household, (or even test at all). 

Same here. Confirmed is almost exactly 10%. The former county health department director estimated that another 10-15% had contracted it but never tested. She is probably right. For about the first three months of the pandemic, it was nigh unto impossible to get a test without going to the ER. There were definitely more cases. But, nowhere near anything super high because we are rural and except for a brief ramp up around the holidays 2020, because there was mask mandate and that included schools with other protocols as well, we didn't have another wave in this county. Then we came through spring and summer masks didn't come off until everyone was already outside A LOT and schools were letting out. Delta didn't really get here significantly until August. Schools started and Labor Day weekend, and boom, our numbers are going up a good bit. I suspect now we are going to have a nasty wave. Sigh. And who knows what the actual numbers will be? Our health department is currently without leadership, most of the employees quit and took good jobs with health departments where the county commissioners don't treat them like crap. There are no in testing sites, no vaccine sites. The pharmacies are stocking Pfizer and Moderna and many of them are walk- in vaccines, but of course not tests. Our little county hospital has a small number of tests and they are rationing them. I don't know why they have so few. The colleges in other counties have huge stockpiles and test all unvaxed students twice per week. Maybe they just contracted for them in bulk back in the spring. Certainly these colleges have a whole lot more money to play with than the podunk stitch and ditch station.

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We have been doing regular things: school/tutorial, scouts, church. Masked indoors. We are vaxed. Our family suffered  massive, long term, negative effects from last year’s shut down and need to be out, with people.

BUT, Dd and I are planning to attend an outdoor skills competition in another state with a team from our AHG troop in two weeks. So she and I are doing life by Zoom for the next couple weeks. Not taking any chances on exposure or actually getting covid and having our camping trip ruined. We live in a low vax state and some of our circles have little masking or significant unvaxed populations (mostly children rather than anti-vaxers). Thankful that we can zoom classes and meetings, livestream church, and facetime friends. Also glad it’s just for two weeks.
 

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32 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

Same here. Confirmed is almost exactly 10%. The former county health department director estimated that another 10-15% had contracted it but never tested. She is probably right. For about the first three months of the pandemic, it was nigh unto impossible to get a test without going to the ER. There were definitely more cases. But, nowhere near anything super high because we are rural and except for a brief ramp up around the holidays 2020, because there was mask mandate and that included schools with other protocols as well, we didn't have another wave in this county. Then we came through spring and summer masks didn't come off until everyone was already outside A LOT and schools were letting out. Delta didn't really get here significantly until August. Schools started and Labor Day weekend, and boom, our numbers are going up a good bit. I suspect now we are going to have a nasty wave. Sigh. And who knows what the actual numbers will be? Our health department is currently without leadership, most of the employees quit and took good jobs with health departments where the county commissioners don't treat them like crap. There are no in testing sites, no vaccine sites. The pharmacies are stocking Pfizer and Moderna and many of them are walk- in vaccines, but of course not tests. Our little county hospital has a small number of tests and they are rationing them. I don't know why they have so few. The colleges in other counties have huge stockpiles and test all unvaxed students twice per week. Maybe they just contracted for them in bulk back in the spring. Certainly these colleges have a whole lot more money to play with than the podunk stitch and ditch station.

I don't know the details on testing here, but I can tell that test capacity is about 1000 tests a day in my county right now. The total number of tests never exceeds 1000 new tests per day. 

And we don't have a health department. 😕 Emergency Management and the fire marshal handle covid response here, and neither of those offices have ever given a flip about it. They are anti-mask and think vaccines are a matter of "personal choice".  They post more often about the weather (daily) than they do about covid (maybe once a month).

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11 hours ago, TexasProud said:

 

Oh I looked at cumulative data and 6.7 percent of one county and 7.5 percent of another county have had Covid if you count from the beginning.

You're very lucky to live in an area where the cases have been so low. For comparison -- slightly more than 13 percent in my county have had Covid.

ETA: That's confirmed cases. I'm sure the real number is significantly higher.

Edited by Pawz4me
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The CDC was estimating that 1 in 4 cases were being caught with testing as of late July on average.  I am sure this varies by area and what their surges and testing availability and compliance look like.   Where positivity is regularly over 5% and vax rates are low,  I really wouldn’t be trusting the numbers.   You a also look at death or hospitalization rates over a time period to get a sense of case number.  Though those estimates are off too.  
 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

Edited by FuzzyCatz
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1 hour ago, Pawz4me said:

You're very lucky to live in an area where the cases have been so low. For comparison -- slightly more than 13 percent in my county have had Covid.

ETA: That's confirmed cases. I'm sure the real number is significantly higher.

3000 cases in 10 days diesnt feel low. 

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32 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

3000 cases in 10 days diesnt feel low. 

Given Texas is running over 10% positivity the past month, that is likely an underestimate as well.  They are over 14% this week, ugh.  As high as 20% at some points.  That is really awful.  
 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/texas

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UGH.   The hospitals in the area just put out a thing saying they are having high patient volumes and limited resources and may get critical with the way things are headed.  

Then the next article on our city website is the high school football team hosting a breakfast for the moms.  Indoors.   NOT ONE MASK!!     Like I thought the schools do not have a mask mandate in our city.  PERFECT.  

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