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Corraleno

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Corraleno last won the day on April 1

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  1. Seattle (King County) and Portland (Multnomah County) are at 78% and 76% — and that's fully vaxed, not just one dose, so the one-dose rate is probably a few points higher. Most of the counties in the CA Bay Area are in the 70s or 80s; ditto many counties in the northeast.
  2. RE: the vaccine only preventing 40% of cases: The Israeli figure of 39% efficacy against Delta is the lowest number suggested by any current study. Other recent studies have provided much higher efficacy rates against Delta: 79% (Scotland), 87% (Canada), 88% (England). Canada: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.28.21259420v2.full\ England: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891 Scotland: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
  3. At this point I'm pretty much resigned to the fact that the "let-'er-rip" folks have won, and this is just going to get really ugly. I'm privileged that I can just keep getting groceries and other supplies delivered and literally never have to leave the house if I don't want to. And frankly my opinion of the human race is so low right now that I really wouldn't miss the interaction. But I am so sad for my kids, as well as my parents. This will be DS's senior year of college and he already lost a chunk of his sophomore year and all of his junior year, with no in person classes or athletic competitions, and he will lose his mind if covid shuts down all classes and competitions again. DD learned last year that she cannot handle online classes, and was excited to register for in person classes at the CC this fall, but I think the odds are really high that they will just end up online again (probably right after the refund deadline). My father and stepmother are in their 80s and in very poor health; my stepmom is not likely to make to Christmas and I doubt my dad will last much longer than that either. But they're in FL and I'm on the other side of the country and there's no way I'm going to Florida right now. Ditto with my exMIL in the UK, who desperately wants to see the kids, and me, before she dies, but that seems unlikely too. The fact that we're in this situation, with places like FL literally worse than ever despite safe, effective, free vaccines, is just pathetic and inexcusable. How many more children need to be orphaned, how many more elderly people need to die without seeing their families, how many more teens and young adults need to miss out on irreplaceable experiences, because a large percentage of Americans just plain don't give a shit what happens to other people as long as they think (often incorrectly) that it won't affect them?
  4. It's not too early for them to test if they are already having symptoms. Average time from exposure to symptom onset is 4 days with Delta (vs 6 with the original strain), and the range also seems much wider (e.g. some people not showing symptoms or testing positive until 10 days or more after exposure). I'd test towards the end of the week, or sooner if you develop symptoms..
  5. This study found that 27% of patients who were never hospitalized developed long covid, and fully 1/3 of those were asymptomatic 0-10 days following a positive test. They also cite research estimating that 10% of hospitalized patients go on to develop long covid, suggesting that even asymptomatic cases may have equal risk to hospitalized patients. (Note: I have not read the cited papers that estimate 10% for hospitalized patients, so the numbers may not actually be comparable, but I haven't seen anything so far suggesting that severe cases are much higher risk for long covid than mild or moderate cases; if you have a link to studies on that I would love to see them because long covid is my biggest concern.) The articles I've seen recently specifically on cognitive issues also did not find a correlation between severity of symptoms and brain changes. For example the UK Biobank study found significant brain changes, compared to matched controls, in a population where <5% were hospitalized, and AFAIK they did not find significant differences between hospitalized and nonhospitalized patients. There was also a paper presented at the International Alszheimer's conference in Denver last week that found the best predictor was loss of smell, even in people with very mild symptoms. There is a summary of it here: "Dr. Gabriel de Erausquin, a professor of neurology at the University of Texas Health Science Center, and colleagues studied more than 200 adults 60 and older from Argentina who were infected with Covid-19. Those who had a persistent loss of smell were more likely to experience cognitive issues, they told the Alzheimer's Association International Conference. Three to six months after they were infected, more than half of the patients still struggled with forgetfulness and about a quarter experienced additional cognitive challenges. How sick a patient was with Covid-19 was not an indicator of whether they would experience cognitive decline. "The severity of the initial disease does not predict who is going to get this," Erausquin told CNN. "In fact, many of them had minimal symptoms -- just a cold or loss of smell." The cognitive issues --including persistent forgetfulness, difficulty sequencing tasks, and forgetting words and phrases -- are similar to those seen in Alzheimer's patients. Erausquin noted that the parts of the brain responsible for sense of smell overlap with those impacted by Alzheimer's disease."
  6. This is my biggest concern, especially in light of the data coming out on significant cognitive issues (including physical changes in the brain verified by pre- and post-covid brain scans), not to mention the "basic" long covid symptoms like severe fatigue, breathlessness, depression/anxiety, etc. The fact that severity of symptoms is not necessarily correlated with the risk of cognitive issues or long covid does not make me feel less cautious just because I'm likely to have "mild" symptoms. Until I see data showing that vaccination specifically protects people from long covid, I'm going to assume that I am at risk for that and will do whatever I can to avoid infection, no matter how "mild" it's likely to be.
  7. When you look at those stats you posted on a per capita basis, not raw numbers, you see that the rate of serious illness in unvaccinated people is 4-5 times higher than in vaccinated people, and that the risk of serious illness for both vaxxed and unvaxxed is vastly higher in the elderly, who (1) have more risk to being with, (2) generally have lower immune response to vaccines anyway, and (3) were vaccinated earliest so their immunity is waning sooner: Seriously ill, age <60: Unvaccinated 0.8 per 100K is 4x higher than vaccinated at 0.2 per 100K Seriously ill, age 60+: Unvaccinated 45.7 per 100K = 5x higher than vaccinated at 9.4 per 100K
  8. I assume you meant less likely, not more likely?
  9. Rather than try to convince him that his preferred youtuber is "wrong," I'd focus on the idea that the advice is outdated, because Delta is far more infectious, with viral loads more than 1000x higher than previous strains and mutations that specifically help it evade antibodies, including antibodies acquired from previous infection with other strains. Has he checked to see whether his favorite Youtuber has updated the advice recently? If he doesn't trust the CDC, would news stories about actual increases in reinfection with Delta be more persuasive? E.g.: "the risk of reinfection with Delta may be 46% greater than with the Alpha variant, with the highest risk seen six months after a first infection – when second cases caused by Delta were 2.37 times more common than with Alpha." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/phe-upgrade-delta-variants-risk-level-due-to-reinfection-risk "All those who think you have natural immunity, you don't," Stack said. "If you got infected and it was six months ago and you think you're bulletproof, you're not. This virus is reinfecting people at a much higher rate than the previous versions. Even if you've had COVID, you should get vaccinated." https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/2021/07/26/covid-19-delta-variant-kentucky-how-to-watch-beshear-update/8090806002/
  10. So on a per capita basis, the rate of serious illness is 4-5 times higher in unvaccinated vs vaccinated
  11. I'm so sorry he's still in pain, but glad they seem to have figured out the cause. I hope they can fix it without surgery, but if surgery is needed then I hope they can fit him in quickly and that it resolves the issue.
  12. It's still there, but he really should delete it because it's junk.
  13. 39 year old father of 5 texts "Oh my [expletive] God. This is terrible. I should have gotten the damn vaccine,” before dying of covid. His fiancee said "We were just holding off and now to think that if we just had gotten the shot ... he could still be here. He is only 39. Our babies now don’t have a dad." I don't know how people sleep at night knowing their lies and disinformation are killing people and destroying families. https://ktla.com/news/nationworld/i-should-have-gotten-the-damn-vaccine-las-vegas-father-of-5-dies-after-contracting-covid-19-in-socal/
  14. So glad he is feeling better, that must have been so scary for all of you.
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