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At what point would you lock down again?


Not_a_Number

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18 hours ago, FuzzyCatz said:

Given Texas is running over 10% positivity the past month, that is likely an underestimate as well.  They are over 14% this week, ugh.  As high as 20% at some points.  That is really awful.  
 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/texas

Yeah our positivity for the 2 counties has been running between 16 and 21 percent. Our daily cases in one county around 145/100,000 and the other 244/100,000 ( number one in the state of Texas).  At least those were the figures a couple of days ago. 

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Confirmed cases in my county are at over 18% of the population. Positivity rate has been between 20-30% almost the whole time. Dipped down to about 12 % briefly before this wave hit. 
 

I know so many people who had all the symptoms and refused to be tested. At this point it seems like everyone should have had it.  Mind boggling. 

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23 hours ago, FuzzyCatz said:

Given Texas is running over 10% positivity the past month, that is likely an underestimate as well.  They are over 14% this week, ugh.  As high as 20% at some points.  That is really awful.  
 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/texas

Yeah, we just dropped down to 14% in my county and I'm thrilled given we were at 20%. And hospitalizations are dropping steadily, finally! Deaths still rising...

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In happy news, the new church we tried DID have everyone masking! A few brought insulated cups of water in and were lowering it to drink, and obviously babies didn't have them on, but that was it. Oh, and the pastor takes his off for speaking from the pulpit, but distanced from everyone there and he is vaccinated. As is most of the church, likely, given how much it is promoted there. And I figure, if you are not Covid cautious you wouldn't be there, you'd go to a church that doesn't require masks of everyone. 

I even saw that people put them on in the parking lot, well before going inside. And the kids stuff was outside, and I fully expected they would take masks off outside but they didn't! When I went to get the kids off the playground at the end almost every kid still has a mask on. And then we ate outdoors - some sat closer than I'd be comfortable with but we found a ledge to sit on where we could distance. 

At youth group kick off it was again outdoors almost entirely and masks were mandatory inside, and optional outside, and still people wore them outside! Like, they CARE!

Oh, and the outside seating area does have a roof over it (shade is important) but they put in big ceiling fans as well, so air doesn't get trapped under there with covid particles building up over time. 

They did have a choir and singing again in church, all masked. Congregation sang two hymns. Choir sang the rest on their own, and the air intake that goes to AC filter is right above them, and not a large choir. And the songs the congregation sang are old hymns, not the kind of praise music you belt out as loud as possible, lol. Not perfect, but honestly, the best I'm going to find  and my kids NEED some exposure to other human beings. These are probably the safest ones I'm going to find for them to have that. 

And they have a backup plan for virtual if cases go back up - they did a full virtual sunday school program, youth group, etc last year and can do it again. They evaluate once a month. 

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On 9/12/2021 at 1:51 AM, Tanaqui said:

Ieta_cassiopia and others: Just a note, what the UK calls "learning disabilities" is what the USA calls "intellectual disability" or, formerly, "mental retardation" (a now dispreferred term). USA learning disabilities are learning *differences* in the UK.

Just to make it more complicated, in the UK, learning differences are classified as a disability under the law. (Although I would not expect people with most specific learning differences - which is what the part of the UK I am in calls USA learning disabilities, and for anyone from other parts of the world, that distinction's about issues making particular types of learning more difficult that don't involve IQ or general/developmental disabilities - to have had problems with the fragility index). A specific learning difference that hit the ability to process verbal information would have endangered the person who had it in this context, however, since the fragility index was mostly given verbally).

 

To clarify, the people who were demonstrably suffering under the UK "fragility index" were people whose disabilities affected IQ or were general/developmental disabilities. Not people who had dyslexia or things like that.

Edited by ieta_cassiopeia
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Interestingly, San Francisco schools aren't having much COVID at all. I was feeling very pessimistic about school safety measures making enough of a difference, but it looks like I was wrong -- with safety measures and low levels of community transmission, things seems like they can at least be OK for a bit. 

We have lots of friends in the SF schools (although only some in the public schools), so I'm really hoping this can stay true. 

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12 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

I’m confused, and the article didn’t clear it up. How does one just “pause“ deliveries of babies? It’s not like the babies are going to get the memo and just wait. Obviously, babies can be born at home and will come wherever the mom happens to be, but I presume they must have some kind of other plan than just telling the moms not to come in.

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1 minute ago, KSera said:

I’m confused, and the article didn’t clear it up. How does one just “pause“ deliveries of babies? It’s not like the babies are going to get the memo and just wait. Obviously, babies can be born at home and will come wherever the mom happens to be, but I presume they must have some kind of other plan than just telling the moms not to come in.

I caught a quick second if this on TV today and I think they said they were not letting in maternity patients because they didn't have the staff. 

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15 minutes ago, KSera said:

I’m confused, and the article didn’t clear it up. How does one just “pause“ deliveries of babies? It’s not like the babies are going to get the memo and just wait. Obviously, babies can be born at home and will come wherever the mom happens to be, but I presume they must have some kind of other plan than just telling the moms not to come in.

I presume they will send them elsewhere. Hopefully it's not too long of a drive.  

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16 minutes ago, KSera said:

I’m confused, and the article didn’t clear it up. How does one just “pause“ deliveries of babies? It’s not like the babies are going to get the memo and just wait. Obviously, babies can be born at home and will come wherever the mom happens to be, but I presume they must have some kind of other plan than just telling the moms not to come in.

I assume they go elsewhere? 

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12 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

I caught a quick second if this on TV today and I think they said they were not letting in maternity patients because they didn't have the staff. 

Wow. What is a woman in labor supposed to do then? The ER would have to take her, wouldn’t it? Ugh, what an awful situation. I would stay home to birth rather than give birth in an ER full of Covid patients, if at all possible 😢

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So, not to derail the thread, but because I don't want to create a new one and want this to get buried.  Asking for prayer.

My husband said the efficacy of masks has not been proven. I said it has, and provided many links to studies. He called this forum my echo chamber.  

So, (sarcasm) welcome to my echo chamber y'all. We have some lovely epidemiologists, doctors, hospitalists, public health experts and scientists among our ranks. 

I need to find a way to navigate the rest of the pandemic without talking to my husband about it. Not looking for advice, just prayers. 

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Just now, cintinative said:

So, not to derail the thread, but because I don't want to create a new one and want this to get buried.  Asking for prayer.

My husband said the efficacy of masks has not been proven. I said it has, and provided many links to studies. He called this forum my echo chamber.  

So, (sarcasm) welcome to my echo chamber y'all. We have some lovely epidemiologists, doctors, hospitalists, public health experts and scientists among our ranks. 

I need to find a way to navigate the rest of the pandemic without talking to my husband about it. Not looking for advice, just prayers. 

oh I'm so sorry. Praying for peace in your home, and wisdom for your husband. 

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21 minutes ago, cintinative said:

So, not to derail the thread, but because I don't want to create a new one and want this to get buried.  Asking for prayer.

My husband said the efficacy of masks has not been proven. I said it has, and provided many links to studies. He called this forum my echo chamber.  

So, (sarcasm) welcome to my echo chamber y'all. We have some lovely epidemiologists, doctors, hospitalists, public health experts and scientists among our ranks. 

I need to find a way to navigate the rest of the pandemic without talking to my husband about it. Not looking for advice, just prayers. 

Oh, wow! I am so sorry. 

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5 hours ago, cintinative said:

So, not to derail the thread, but because I don't want to create a new one and want this to get buried.  Asking for prayer.

My husband said the efficacy of masks has not been proven. I said it has, and provided many links to studies. He called this forum my echo chamber.  

So, (sarcasm) welcome to my echo chamber y'all. We have some lovely epidemiologists, doctors, hospitalists, public health experts and scientists among our ranks. 

I need to find a way to navigate the rest of the pandemic without talking to my husband about it. Not looking for advice, just prayers. 

I have no advice to give.  Just sending you some hugs.  That has to be so stressful to deal with.  I am glad you can vent here some.  I hope it helps to get it out sometimes.  

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Ugh My area.  We have a statewide mask mandate but people/events don't care.  Huge rodeo this weekend that advertised their covid precautions was all lies.  It was 100% capacity and the staff at the doors handed out masks but said you could take it off as soon as you were inside.  People were posting about it all over social media.

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7 hours ago, cintinative said:

So, not to derail the thread, but because I don't want to create a new one and want this to get buried.  Asking for prayer.

My husband said the efficacy of masks has not been proven. I said it has, and provided many links to studies. He called this forum my echo chamber.  

So, (sarcasm) welcome to my echo chamber y'all. We have some lovely epidemiologists, doctors, hospitalists, public health experts and scientists among our ranks. 

I need to find a way to navigate the rest of the pandemic without talking to my husband about it. Not looking for advice, just prayers. 

Well our school is fully masked and yet we now know enough kids who got infected from the classroom contact (sitting next to an infected kid). And kids we know were vaccinated. So draw your conclusions. My DS has come into contact with lots (10+) of kids who ended up with Covid including his lab partner he eats lunch without the mask. He seems to be OK. He is vaccinated. 
I personally wouldn’t go into a room full of Covid patients with a surgical mask or a cloth mask, because like your husband, I don’t think they will help me much. N95s are a different story. 
good luck to you guys now with stone throwing. 

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18 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:


I personally wouldn’t go into a room full of Covid patients with a surgical mask or a cloth mask, because like your husband, I don’t think they will help me much. N95s are a different story. 
good luck to you guys now with stone throwing. 

Even so, they are designed so that those wearing it prevent spreading it. You would need the covid patients to be wearing masks, as well. 

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3 hours ago, Hilltopmom said:

Yes, they have to go elsewhere. But this is a rural hospital in a very rural area- the next hospital is a ways away.  (I know a few people who live there)

Where I used to live, years ago they closed every maternity ward in the county except for one in the far north.  It's not that unusual apparently.  People who are pregnant just have to make a plan to drive farther ... usually an hour or more.  It sucks.

I hope they gave expectant mothers enough time to make a new plan.

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1 hour ago, Roadrunner said:

Well our school is fully masked and yet we now know enough kids who got infected from the classroom contact (sitting next to an infected kid). And kids we know were vaccinated. So draw your conclusions. My DS has come into contact with lots (10+) of kids who ended up with Covid including his lab partner he eats lunch without the mask. He seems to be OK. He is vaccinated. 
I personally wouldn’t go into a room full of Covid patients with a surgical mask or a cloth mask, because like your husband, I don’t think they will help me much. N95s are a different story. 
good luck to you guys now with stone throwing. 

If they are eating lunch without masks, it doesn't sound like the situation is saying much at all about the efficacy of masks.    And that's not counting if there are sports or other extra curriculars happening, or gatherings outside of school.  

I'm curious how they would be positive the infection contact definitely happened in school. 

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2 hours ago, Roadrunner said:


good luck to you guys now with stone throwing. 

What's with that?  We've had HCWs here attest to low rates with the surgical masks, but no one cares if someone wears heavier masks.  The point is that masking is one way to mitigate risk in a pandemic. 

Personally, I don't really care if people think that masks don't work well, as long as they obey mask mandates.  But I am blessed to live in a state that has one.  But as another poster in my state has posted repeatedly, not all areas here abide by the mandate.  And they don't have as good vaccination rates as my area.  And their numbers unfortunately reflect that. 

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1 hour ago, SKL said:

Where I used to live, years ago they closed every maternity ward in the county except for one in the far north.  It's not that unusual apparently.  People who are pregnant just have to make a plan to drive farther ... usually an hour or more.  It sucks.

I hope they gave expectant mothers enough time to make a new plan.

An hour or more will mean more ambulance call outs and car deliveries 

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2 hours ago, Roadrunner said:

Well our school is fully masked and yet we now know enough kids who got infected from the classroom contact (sitting next to an infected kid). And kids we know were vaccinated. So draw your conclusions.

I mean, you can't actually conclude anything from that other than the fact that masks aren't perfect (which we do know.) But to think about whether they are efficacious, you'd have to compare to a situation without masks. 

I've been very heartened to watch the SFUSD COVID numbers. No outbreaks so far, amazingly. It's clear that precautions DO help. May they help as much over here, where it gets cold... 

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9 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I've been very heartened to watch the SFUSD COVID numbers. No outbreaks so far, amazingly. It's clear that precautions DO help. May they help as much over here, where it gets cold... 

https://www.sfusd.edu/covid-19-response-updates-and-resources/health-and-safety-guidelines/when-someone-gets-sick/covid-19-testing-dashboard

“This dashboard reflects COVID-19 positive cases that have been reported since August 16, 2021, the start of the new school year. 

Reported COVID-19 Cases
REPORTING METHOD

TOTAL CASES SINCE 8.16.21*

COUNT
Staff Self Reported          34 ~9.8k staff
Student Self Reported         188 ~53k students
COLOR Testing Reported          16 *see below
*Total Reported         238 ~62.8k students and staff

… Last updated: September 11, 2021 @ 21:30

*Case numbers are cumulative since August 16, 2021.“

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6 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

https://www.sfusd.edu/covid-19-response-updates-and-resources/health-and-safety-guidelines/when-someone-gets-sick/covid-19-testing-dashboard

“This dashboard reflects COVID-19 positive cases that have been reported since August 16, 2021, the start of the new school year. 

Reported COVID-19 Cases
REPORTING METHOD

TOTAL CASES SINCE 8.16.21*

COUNT
Staff Self Reported          34 ~9.8k staff
Student Self Reported         188 ~53k students
COLOR Testing Reported          16 *see below
*Total Reported         238 ~62.8k students and staff

… Last updated: September 11, 2021 @ 21:30

*Case numbers are cumulative since August 16, 2021.“

Yes, there are obviously some cases, but it sounds like spread has been VERY limited. 

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20 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Yes, there are obviously some cases, but it sounds like spread has been VERY limited. 

I wasn’t sure how you define outbreak. My district is further south of SF and they have been backfilling weekly numbers as they get the information. 
 

SF hospitalization data is looking good in terms of available ICU beds.

https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19HospitalsDashboard/Hospitals?:embed=y&:showVizHome=no

ETA: the bulk of reported cases in SFUSD is from K-5 schools.

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10 hours ago, rebcoola said:

Ugh My area.  We have a statewide mask mandate but people/events don't care.  Huge rodeo this weekend that advertised their covid precautions was all lies.  It was 100% capacity and the staff at the doors handed out masks but said you could take it off as soon as you were inside.  People were posting about it all over social media.

This is why I go almost nowhere. Not even when friends say their get together will be outside, because that’s wound up untrue, too.

There was to be an oldies music group playing at our clubhouse this weekend. Our clubhouse is taking no precautions. Event just got canceled for half the group getting Covid. Somehow, nobody thinks, “Gee, what if it had been a week earlier and got spread right here? Maybe we should be more careful.” 😒 

We’re planning to attend an outdoor event, and I’m nervous. It’s genuinely outdoors, with no buildings, just empty acres and a camper with a bathroom (woods for boys) and a small group of people we love. Still, trust issues have just about become my entire personality!

All that said, my Dominos delivery guy wore a mask to hand me my pizza outside the other night (as did I), and now I’m afraid we’re going to have a lot of Dominos even though I think it’s trash. I’m just THAT grateful for their basic decency.

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8 hours ago, SKL said:

Where I used to live, years ago they closed every maternity ward in the county except for one in the far north.  It's not that unusual apparently.  People who are pregnant just have to make a plan to drive farther ... usually an hour or more.  It sucks.

I hope they gave expectant mothers enough time to make a new plan.

I’ve never been in that specific situation, but I did have providers who were being dropped from privileges at my preferred hospital right around my due date with #5.  
That hospital was already about an hour away, depending on traffic, and it was winter.  My providers’ plan was “Well, if you’re late, drive another 30-40 minutes to our new hospital.”  With a 5th baby? Potentially in snow?  
I fought for an induction, and still only got it on the last day possible.

At least I had a potential back up plan of going to a crappier but closer hospital. (Where I’d have strangers instead of established providers, but still.)

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2 hours ago, Carrie12345 said:

Still, trust issues have just about become my entire personality!

All that said, my Dominos delivery guy wore a mask to hand me my pizza outside the other night (as did I), and now I’m afraid we’re going to have a lot of Dominos even though I think it’s trash. I’m just THAT grateful for their basic decency.

Again, this sticker fits https://www.redbubble.com/i/sticker/I-m-Vaccinated-but-still-wearing-my-mask-cause-i-got-trust-issues-and-y-all-nasty-by-3bderhmane/83469756.EJUG5

And I know what you mean. A guy bought some stuff from me off of Facebook Marketplace and as he walked up he saw I had on a mask and threw his on well before getting close to me, without me asking. For that, I gave him $5 off and sold him more stuff he hadn't asked about at a discount as well. 

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13 hours ago, rebcoola said:

Ugh My area.  We have a statewide mask mandate but people/events don't care.  Huge rodeo this weekend that advertised their covid precautions was all lies.  It was 100% capacity and the staff at the doors handed out masks but said you could take it off as soon as you were inside.  People were posting about it all over social media.

This is the main reason we never returned to co-op after Covid started. Unmasked (we had a mandate at the time), building limit set to 10 people by the church we met in (there were way more than 10 people in the single line I was in at the time) in order to pick up end of 2020 school year stuff. I was appalled, still am, that it is the Christian co-op for the area - blatantly lying about their precautions. 

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We are choosing to do things in a different county that is an hour away (at least each way) because they have a mask mandate and for the most part everyone there follows it.  I feel way more comfortable going into a store there then I do in my own county.   I went to Walmart in my county and other than the staff there were maybe 4 people in masks in the really busy store.  Went to Walmart in the county with a mask mandate, and there was 1 person (other than kids under 2) without a mask.  He had a profane shirt on that was talking about non masking.   They even have it outdoors at schools.  So the Nature school we went to have it for indoor and outdoors.   Our schools don't even have it at all.   This county is the first in the state to get to 70% of the residents in the state vaccinated.  

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Drastic shift for pandemic preparedness: But something is missing - by Katelyn Jetelina - Your Local Epidemiologist (substack.com)

Diseases are jumping from animals-to-humans. With climate change, people are moving into areas that have never been inhabited before; animals, like mosquitos, are also shifting. An example is unfolding in real time. An outbreak of Nipah virus has caused hundreds to quarantine after a 12-year old died of the disease on Sept 5, 2021 in India. Nipah virus jumps from animals-to-humans, such as bats or pigs, and then is easily transmitted human-to-human. Nipah virus has a 45-75% mortality rate.

Humans easily spread the virus. Due to globalization, humans are able to travel more than ever, so viruses will be introduced in places that they’ve never been. We just saw this on July 15, 2021 when a case of Monkeypox from Nigeria landed in Dallas. But thanks to mask mandates on the plane and airports, a potentially severe outbreak was 100% prevented.

There’s no question that we will have another pandemic in coming years.

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14 hours ago, Roadrunner said:

Well our school is fully masked and yet we now know enough kids who got infected from the classroom contact (sitting next to an infected kid). And kids we know were vaccinated. So draw your conclusions. My DS has come into contact with lots (10+) of kids who ended up with Covid including his lab partner he eats lunch without the mask. He seems to be OK. He is vaccinated. 
I personally wouldn’t go into a room full of Covid patients with a surgical mask or a cloth mask, because like your husband, I don’t think they will help me much. N95s are a different story. 
good luck to you guys now with stone throwing. 

Well here's my stone. My kids come home from school and regularly report how such and such a teacher had to keep being reminded to put their mask on. (Our state is under a mask mandate).

Even in the elementary school where of course, most kids are unvaccinated. And you might be surprised to learn that kids aren't the best at keeping them on either.

The problem isn't masks, it's that's people aren't wearing them correctly if at all. 

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1 minute ago, OH_Homeschooler said:

The problem isn't masks, it's that's people aren't wearing them correctly if at all. 

This.

Our college did amazingly well with the mask mandate over the past year; we had far fewer cases per capita than the local community, and none originated from classes or labs where the mask mandate was enforced.
We have started this semester with a mask mandate, and the worst week had 10 infected students, while the county that has 4x the population of our campus had 200. We since have weekly 1-4 cases among 10,000 students. 

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6 minutes ago, regentrude said:

This.

Our college did amazingly well with the mask mandate over the past year; we had far fewer cases per capita than the local community, and none originated from classes or labs where the mask mandate was enforced.
We have started this semester with a mask mandate, and the worst week had 10 infected students, while the county that has 4x the population of our campus had 200. We since have weekly 1-4 cases among 10,000 students. 

I live near a small liberal arts college and I'm always so impressed when I drive by and see students wearing masks outside, off campus. May be a different story at parties but it sure seems like they take it seriously!

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2 hours ago, historically accurate said:

This is the main reason we never returned to co-op after Covid started. Unmasked (we had a mandate at the time), building limit set to 10 people by the church we met in (there were way more than 10 people in the single line I was in at the time) in order to pick up end of 2020 school year stuff. I was appalled, still am, that it is the Christian co-op for the area - blatantly lying about their precautions. 

Our (now former) church did this. I am sure they intended for people to follow them, but they left up the notice online for months after it was apparent that plenty of people were not following them. 

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3 hours ago, historically accurate said:

This is the main reason we never returned to co-op after Covid started. Unmasked (we had a mandate at the time), building limit set to 10 people by the church we met in (there were way more than 10 people in the single line I was in at the time) in order to pick up end of 2020 school year stuff. I was appalled, still am, that it is the Christian co-op for the area - blatantly lying about their precautions. 

I already don't trust any church sponsored events around here they are the worst offenders.  Large events/ businesses have usually followed the rules because of fines etc.   I guess this rodeo figured they would get more people and not get fined since it's a one night event.

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1 hour ago, Shoes+Ships+SealingWax said:

DH has tested negative, just shy of 2wks after first testing positive. DS is still positive & will retest in a few days. I am still negative. 

Sounds like Team Moderna did its job. Great news. Hoping for good news from your DS soon.

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12 minutes ago, SeaConquest said:

Sounds like Team Moderna did its job. Great news. Hoping for good news from your DS soon.

Yeah, I think mine being in May / June vs DH’s being in March made all the difference.

He got very sick after his vaccine (high fever, teeth-chattering chills, pouring sweat) so we are both very glad he managed to stay Covid-free until after he was vaccinated. I’m sure it helped quite a bit. 

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