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ieta_cassiopeia

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Everything posted by ieta_cassiopeia

  1. Recruitment algorithms are making a pretty big mess of job recruitment; probably isn't surprising that academia is making the same mistakes at the same time...
  2. Is it possible to get a wide-ruled book, number problems and then work the answers there? Then you can have whatever paper-based math program you like. (Of course, if you go for Beast Academy Online like Not_A_Number suggests, the book would be used for the occasional note, if that, because most working would involve typing and that's a skill worth picking up in any case).
  3. The EUAs required information from the very beginning of the vaccine research, thus I was already counting it in the timeframe I discussed. People get different antibodies or mixes of antibodies to the same stimulus, so both options are possible. (Some people are known to have had no reaction to the vaccine, and it would be expected for people to get different antibodies/antibody mixes in response to any vaccine compared to other people who encountered the same one, let alone to people who encountered a different vaccine or a variant of the virus itself. This is one reason why drug testing where antibodies are part of the assumed effect mechanism uses statistical probabilities rather than cast-iron certainties). And now I'd like to know why the NHS couldn't have put that on its own web pages about COVID-19 (something it only started doing when the government itself began discussing boosters). How did it expect a consistent message to be given when it decided it wasn't important to communicate the same way on its own site as it apparently did to the Financial Times? (By the way, from the search I did, the Financial Times was the only UK paper reporting this, it wasn't on the NHS site, so anyone checking sources would be more inclined to believe the paper got its facts wrong than to believe it).
  4. The EUAs were granted well before the year was done, and it was only under Delta that there was enough wear for a loss of performance to become apparent. Also, the original idea was to vaccinate fast enough to beat the vaccine-escaping mutation (which would have rendered the whole question moot). It turns out that this is a trouble once partial vaccine escape (which Delta is known to do) enters the picture; it can be difficult to differentiate between the partial vaccine escape and potential waning of immunity.
  5. Unfortunately, many people don't get the flu vaccine as it's perceived as not effectual enough to be worth the risks 😞 (I've been hospitalised with the flu vaccine, as has someone else in my social circle. If it had been billed as being like the flu vaccine, I probably would have skipped the vaccine due to equating it with a guaranteed hospital visit, and the other person definitely would have done so). I was told recently the risk of COVID if vaccinated was like being a passenger in a car. Well, I'm careful who I ride with due to bad past experiences too...
  6. I think it will all get sorted in the wash, and I don't feel like going into further detail on a non-political board.
  7. There have been experiments with microphone recordings feeding into search results, but they were very unsophisticated (not even differentiating between different people who happened to be in range, let alone reliably picking up enough words to figure out context). This has led, among other things, to pro-vax people getting anti-vax stuff. However, that was tending to be more on mobile than desktop, and OP's getting it the other way round, so I think this is not the cause. The more traditional "misinterpreting search" seems more plausible*. * - My search misinterpretation story: back in 2015, a sports team I supported went into a specific form of administration I didn't understand, so I looked it up. Cue all the targeted ads for the next 8 months trying to sell me the administration type in question. Despite me not having a business to put into administration. I suppose I should consider myself lucky that I lived in the same country as the team in question... Fortunately, after 8 months, I figured out how to stop targeted ads from most of the sources I was getting them from. My journey planner software still thinks I live 800 miles and 3 countries away from my actual home, but I leave that as it is for safety reasons.
  8. That is interesting, as it implies Moderna starts to wear off at some point between 8 and 12 months (8 months was the average for the "control" the "twice as likely" is being compared to). Subject to any potential issues with the study itself. This is a lot longer than Pfizer and somewhat longer than OxfordAstrazeneca.
  9. Unfortunately, we know COVID-19 can have serious consequences even if the initial infection wasn't that bad (the 11.5% chance of new cardiovascular/psychiatric issue within 6 months of non-hospitalised known positive COVID didn't differentiate by vaccine and it will be a while before a version of the study that does becomes feasible). This still is an order of magnitude bigger threat than other things most people do until shown otherwise.
  10. I vaguely knew several people who have died of COVID - entirely because I live in a family with some members who work in care homes. Other than that, my entire "close circle" has been good about at least trying to protect themselves. A fair number got COVID anyway (some three times), two have confirmed Long COVID (interestingly, both were people only infected once), but even the ones I had doubts about surviving the waves we've had so far due to vulnerabilities or living in places with rubbish healthcare have survived. On the other hand, the protective measures mean I and over half the people in my social circle have completely avoided the virus as far as anyone is aware (and only have antibodies due to vaccination). The average person is capable of maintaining an active social circle of around 150 people (Dunbar's number - note that boardies you consider friends count towards the total). If we assume the average person's actual social circle is half that (75), then a death rate of over 1 in 500 means that 1 in 7 people in the USA considers someone who died of COVID to be in their social circle. There are some issues with this, because a disproprtionate number of people died in various institutional settings, and people who live in places like care homes and prisons are more likely than usual to have a small social circle. So even though the people who were closest to the deceased are hit just as hard emotionally, there is less emotional effect on the community at large than if the disease predominantly killed people with unusually large social circles. And of course, the fewer people know the deceased, the less likely it is that a secret about the cause of death will be revealed.
  11. The NHS does, because being able to use natural infection saves it a lot of money it can use elsewhere. Especially if this turns out to be something requiring several vaccinations - if natural infection turns out to be something the NHS can treat as equivalent to one of those doses, then it could potentially save a lot of money each time there is a new wave. Which may explain why natural immunity has already been studied, and why it has been found a significant number of people who had natural immunity revert to non-immune even within the 6-month period the NHS currently considers "immune" for COVID app purposes. Even Israel managed to get vaccines to go 6 months before losing immunity, and that was with spacing that would now be considered too close for optimal protection. I do wonder if having mRNA for dose 1 (more effective in the short term) and something like OxfordAstrazeneca for dose 2 (early signs of being more effective in the medium term), 8-16 weeks apart, might turn out to be optimal for someone who's not had an infection (with the potential to skip one of the doses if an infection occurred in the appropriate window)? That's going to take quite a bit of research. A single dose of vaccine also generates antibodies, which is how the UK is on 92% of the population with antibodies. For comparison, that's about the same proportion who have antibodies against measles in the UK (almost all of which is through vaccination). I think a lot of people heard "95% protection", "62/70/90% protection" and "66% protection" and assumed those headline figures were going to hold, based on their knowledge of stable viruses (or of percentages that are meant to hold until the next scheduled dose, in the case of flu). The concepts of waning immunity and vaccine evasion aren't taught in practical terms to most people until times like this, only maybe covered in the midst of a bunch of theory in high school-equivalent biology class. It's rather hard to consider the possibility of waning immunity when it's only presented as a thing that happens in practise after immunity starts waning... (I get the feeling the journalists weren't told it was a practical risk rather than a theoretical one either, because not even the usually-responsible ones mentioned it). And for the record, I had believed that places like the UK and USA could vaccinate hard enough and fast enough to at least create bubbles of safety within those countries (that would work much like New Zealand, where most of the time, most aspects of life are normal) while arrangements were made to vaccinate everywhere else.
  12. Apusskidu is one songbook I remember being taught from as a beginning singer (it is from the range Collins Songbooks), though you'd want a book covering the most basic techniques of singing before starting with the Collins Songbooks. I don't remember what was used to cover the most basic techniques when I learned to sing. Note that most songbooks (in Collins and other series) will at least have piano given as well, simply because it is assumed most schools will have a piano and that the teacher will use it to accompany the students. You are by no means obliged to use any accompaniment for singing, and can simply use any written accompaniment as a guide to what should be sung at any particular part of the song. Finally, swimming helps learn breath control and support for singing, though perhaps not as strongly as a kazoo or recorder would. If the goal is specifically to support singing, though, all of these things can wait until the student has been singing for a while. Edit: Singing Lessons for Little Singers might be a good starting point, though I can't tell what method it's advocating.
  13. Is she doing any writing (or anything that could prepare the wrists for the effort of writing, such as creating art)? Also, is she doing any physical education? These don't necessarily have to happen every day, but they'd definitely help your daughter's education, deserve some place in the plan if not already there, and should be included in your hour count for state purposes as and when they are included. If you're not sure if your daughter can handle much more output, pick something that is all or mostly input, like reading books (or having books read to her, either by you or by technology), watching educational videos or music appreciation. These can be things you can do without having to put in as much work as for subjects like maths (where teaching effort can't really be scaled down at this age). The other option is to extend your school year. A 40-week year with a 1000-hour requirement means only 5 hours of teaching per weekday, except for those weeks where you have an all-day outing (pretty much all of which are educational at this age), when the other days only need 4.5 hours of teaching. And at first-grader age, I think it is likely the child will learn more by having more consistent education than doing longer hours punctuated by long holidays.
  14. If DS says it's OK, then feel free to visit his room (with the confidence that it is probably not a complete tip...) and go with the flow. DS may already know exactly why he wishes to invite you and you only stay there for that specific task, perhaps he wants you to see how he lives now he's out of the home, maybe he wants to have a discussion with you that he doesn't want the entire dorm to overhear (private family business does not need to be the dorm's business, after all). Of course, it is important not to overstay one's welcome, and also to check if it's the sort of college that has rules on visitors in dorms (be that for COVID or any other reason). (Incidentally, I don't think the mum cleaning once a month is an invasion of privacy if everyone sharing the room agreed to it and appropriate boundaries are set e.g. "don't clean that bit". Though it's not optimal either - ideally, by that point you'd want students to be able to clean their own rooms if possible).
  15. Just to make it more complicated, in the UK, learning differences are classified as a disability under the law. (Although I would not expect people with most specific learning differences - which is what the part of the UK I am in calls USA learning disabilities, and for anyone from other parts of the world, that distinction's about issues making particular types of learning more difficult that don't involve IQ or general/developmental disabilities - to have had problems with the fragility index). A specific learning difference that hit the ability to process verbal information would have endangered the person who had it in this context, however, since the fragility index was mostly given verbally). To clarify, the people who were demonstrably suffering under the UK "fragility index" were people whose disabilities affected IQ or were general/developmental disabilities. Not people who had dyslexia or things like that.
  16. The UK tried survivability (specifically, a "fragility index") as a method of triaging people with COVID in the first lockdown. It ended up with a lot of people with autism and learning disabilities being wrongly refused ventilation due to being perceived as less able to survive (their disabilities meant they needed accommodations to give the expected result to indicate survivability on the tests, and none were available, not even the chaperoning they would usually have had in hospital). There was quite a bit of scandal when a month afterwards, the NHS banned the index, but there is evidence some hospitals reintroduced it in the second wave, with the same result.
  17. At the risk of going on a tangent... ...you'll be pleased to know that lots of IT security people now agree with you. Forcing people to change their password after an arbitary amount of time is deprecated practise, although it has only become so in the last 5-10 years. Current best practise (which you may wish to pass onto your IT department) is: - use a high-quality digital password manager (there are plenty out there, and the university IT team will probably prefer to pick their own favourite manager once they realise this), which means people only need to remember one password (for their own safety) in most situations - stick all your other passwords into it as and when you get them - make the password for the password manager long, memorable and not entirely consisting of words in the dictionary (for example, the first letter of each word in a favourite sentence - that isn't one you've called such on the internet). Putting in letters and symbols is still good practice, but not at the expense of memorability. If you must write down clues, make them ones that don't give the exact wording away to other people, and keep them secure. - then keep the password manager's password the same for as long as you like - unless there's a specific reason to change it (either because the password store is compromised in some way - or because you've forgotten the password for the password manager) - if you use a site that you feel needs more security than usual, use two-factor authentication of some sort (ideally not using your usual mobile phone, though outside IT security, that's not always practical).
  18. "Normalisation" means keeping things the same. People have got used to the conferences, taking them out is the opposite of normalisation.
  19. The Darwin Award considers self-sterilisation through seriously bad ideas as valid grounds for awarding a Darwin Award (not just an honourary mention, which can be awarded for seriously bad ideas that nearly resulted in removal from the gene pool). Unfortunately, if correctly-done research solidly concludes that ivermectin (in general or - more plausibly - just at animal dosage), it sounds like taking ivermectin to the point of self-sterilisation (without other factors to make it unusually foolish compared to others taking ivermectin) will not be valid because it is too common 😞
  20. Positive reason for reading the syllabus fully: Back when I was at university, first week of lectures. The lecturer forgot some item they were trying to explain about how their department handles submissions that are early that a student wishes to "take back" to improve* (before the deadline), but had forgot (students submitting coursework early isn't a common "problem", apparently). A student raised their hand and replied (turns out that no, once coursework is submitted it's final, even though it definitely won't be marked until after the official deadline has passed because it'll be locked in the department reception safe reserved for coursework). * - The lecturer was able to tackle more usual topics about coursework submissions that are on time or late off the top of their head, and appeared to have fit the notes for their entire lecture on an index card. This was in response to a student question. "How do you know, since you've only been here a week?" asked the lecturer. "It's in the department syllabus. Page 17, right-hand column, for anyone else interested," replied the student. You can guess how impressed the lecturer was with that student!
  21. Multiplication and division are opposites. It is logical to use the reverse process for one that was used for the other. If Calvert taught multiplication as repeated addition, then I can see why it described division as repeated subtraction (since addition and subtraction are also opposites). Of course, it is possible (and I think the most likely explanation) that there is a mathematical error in calling it "repeated addition/subtraction" in the first place, and Calvert's explanation of division simply exposed that at some level to you and your kid. The answer is to call it what it actually is, "repeated grouping/ungrouping", show what you mean, and carry on calling them opposites after that.
  22. A couple of points, which I think fit with your "half the time" theory: 92% of people in the UK had antibodies near the beginning of this wave. Cases have been rising through the last half of the summer holidays and now there is talk of an October/November lockdown in England (complete with official denial cycle that looks exactly the same as the one last year that preceded a similar lockdown). We do have specific factors for both the increase and the decrease in the two major peaks, which gives reason to believe these numeric changes are in the "other half". Local numbers, on the other hand, often are to do with lack of fuel - I suspect the fact my area's cases are going down during the last two weeks while the UK as a whole continues to see an increase may be partly due to this. Mu is being monitored, with 55 cases in the UK so far.
  23. Do you mean the first one or the second one? The first one was the build-up to Christmas, where there was lots of talk of removing restrictions for Christmas for 5 days (that eventually ended up 3, but some people had committed to 5 days together and didn't change their plans), followed by one (1) day of children going back to in-person school after the Christmas/New Year holiday (one of the oddest decisions I've seen all pandemic) and a strict lockdown. The second one was the Euros/experimental mass gatherings (which didn't just cause infection at mass gatherings, but also in pubs that were having their first major event since being allowed to re-open) followed by children starting the summer holidays (and entire families quarantining - to the point of skipping the last fortnight of school and two extra weeks of work - in order to ensure they didn't get a positive test and miss out on summer holidays abroad). Bear in mind that the all-UK statistics are dominated by English cases, not just due to population but due to the devolved governments (Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland) generally being more cautious than the English one. I remember the first week after Freedom Day to be quieter in town than during most of lockdown, simply because people did not want to get reinfected. So while Freedom Day was not a lockdown, you could say a lot of people locked themselves down. The climb back up is most likely because after those holidays (an unusual number seem to have been taken at the start of the 6-week summer holiday), children have been mixing together and adults have increasingly been summoned back to in-person work (because Christmas preparation has begun in some industries). Finally, people have seen that everyone did not in fact keel over on Freedom Day and have therefore dropped their guard a little. I expect an increase in positive test results in the next 2 weeks, because most English students return to school at some point between today and Wednesday.
  24. This is useful information. It also means that a possible factor is the amount of work a protection type (vaccine or natural) has had to do since it happened. At which point, it becomes a lot harder to predict the point at which a given group of people will need boosters, since that's not only going to vary according to the country, but by local and individual risk profile.
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