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Ausmumof3

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Ausmumof3 last won the day on October 11 2020

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  1. The cases they were reporting on CGTN are quite a lot higher than that. Trains to Beijing are stopped as far as I read yesterday. Edited to add I misread and thought you meant 7 across the entire country! Never mind my comment!
  2. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-03/covid-delta-danger-sees-experts-prepare-for-hospital-surge/100334558 And a bit on how Delta is behaving in Australia- obviously it’s only pretty early data at this point. The warning comes as early data from the NSW outbreak shows more people are in hospital intensive care wards than during the peak of Victoria's second-wave outbreak, which had substantially more active cases.
  3. 16 cases for QLD, 4 for VIC. 199 for NSW, 50 infectious in the community.
  4. I’m sorry. That doesn’t sound like a good day at all.
  5. Yep. There’s a also a chart floating around from Israel’s figures that visualises it really well but I wasn’t able to find the source to check the stats. But basically it showed how the death and case rates followed closely prevax and don’t anymore.
  6. I think but would have to double check I saw a stat for 164 in ICU? So yeah that would be current I would imagine.
  7. If there was any kind of question over transmission in schools Queensland is settling it 😞 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-02/queensland-coronavirus-new-cases-update-lockdown-brisbane-school/100341828
  8. I think that was kind of the point though. It’s not currently very well or consistently defined… and I dare say COVID hasn’t helped much.
  9. Did you read the link I posted underneath at all? I didn’t tag you. It’s pretty lengthy but good detail. And yeah.
  10. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/1/17-1901_article This link was a really good explanation I think. It seems like R0 reflects number of cases per case in an immune population with normal or natural behavioural patterns. The Aus health department definition has specifically excluded changes in behavioural/contact patterns based on public health measures being enforced from the definition. There seems to be some variation around how the term is used which is probably why it’s so confusing. Interestingly the article states that the traditional R0 for measles may no longer apply due to the changes in lifestyle since it was calculated.
  11. It sounds like most people define it as number in a naive population it’s only Australia that has the weird disclaimer. Whereas RT reflects what happens once there’s some level of immunity? But I’m not clear on it maybe someone else has some insight.
  12. Yeah I should have checked into it a bit more before posting. Lots of those questions raised down thread and he acknowledges that. It was nice to think the vaccines were that effective for a night though 😞
  13. I have a feeling there’s two terms one is R0 which is relevant in an unvaccinated population then there’s a different term once you have some vaccinated? Anyone want to add anything to my fuzzy understanding on that? Edited to add I checked Wiki and it looks like we have our own special definition down here “In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number, or basic reproductive number(sometimes called basic reproduction ratio or incorrectly[26] basic reproductive rate), denoted (pronounced R nought or R zero),[27] of an infection is the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection.[21] The definition assumes that no other individuals are infected or immunized (naturally or through vaccination). Some definitions, such as that of the Australian Department of Health, add the absence of "any deliberate intervention in disease transmission".[28] The basic reproduction number is not necessarily the same as the effective reproduction number (usually written [t for time], sometimes ),[29] which is the number of cases generated in the current state of a population, which does not have to be the uninfected state. is a dimensionless number and not a rate, which would have units of time−1,[30] or units of time like doubling time.[31]”
  14. I am so sorry you are in that situation. It has been such a long haul for you all.
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