How many people in US have had COVID-19?

[Martha in GA]

How many people do you think have been infected with Covid-19? According to the linked article, written May 2022, the CDC had the number at about 80.8 million, which is about 25% of the US, but I would think this is an undercount. The article places the number at about 200 million. That is a huge discrepancy. What do you think that the number of infections might be? And would that include re-infections?

https://www.laweekly.com/this-is-how-many-people-in-the-us-have-been-infected-with-covid-19/

[Drama Llama]

I can't believe it's 25%.  More than 25% of the people I know have had covid, and I live in a very cautious bubble.  

[SKL]

Many people have had it and never reported it to anyone.

More recently, the government has been saying almost everyone has had it, whether they know it or not.

I personally know a small number of people who have not had it as far as they know ... but it's not like they tested every day for the past 2.5 years.

[KSera]

6 minutes ago, Martha in GA said:

How many people do you think have been infected with Covid-19? According to the linked article, written May 2022, the CDC had the number at about 80.8 million, which is about 25% of the US, but I would think this is an undercount. The article places the number at about 200 million. That is a huge discrepancy. What do you think that the number of infections might be? And would that include re-infections?

https://www.laweekly.com/this-is-how-many-people-in-the-us-have-been-infected-with-covid-19/

I think even 200 million is likely an undercount since kids seroconvert at a much lower rate than adults and that's what they are basing their numbers on. I'm not surprised at the big discrepancy, because hardly anyone I know who has had an infection since early 2022 (which is a lot of people) has had a PCR or reported their results. The majority are using home tests and not reporting.

[Starr]

I was in a fairly cautious group that has almost all had it this year. Most just tested at home and didn't report and followed the current guidelines. 

[KSera]

1 minute ago, SKL said:

Many people have had it and never reported it to anyone.

More recently, the government has been saying almost everyone has had it, whether they know it or not.

I agree with the first statement, but disagree with the government on the second. Certainly, more people have had it than realize, but I think a sizeable share of those who do not think they've had it have not. The majority of the people I know who have not had a known case have taken enough precautions that it's pretty reasonable to think they would not have caught it given their very low exposure risk.

[Clarita]

Even the 200million article linked in the article thinks 200milion is likely an undercount as well. 

Same reasons as @KSera and @SKLlisted as well not everyone takes a PCR or officially reports their results. Most people (I included) just take the rapid test start our isolation and quarantine, tell people that we know (even my husband just reported it to his workplace and unknown if they reported to the government. 

That's not including the people who are asymptomatic with it.  I know a few cases including my son. The only reason they know they had COVID was because they had to test because their family all have it or test because of a work requirement.

[Loowit]

I don't think we will ever know.  In just my family (DH, kids, and I) none of us have had it (knock on wood).  We have gotten some illnesses, and have always tested, but none have been positive.  My DD has just come down with something, likely from being around people who showed up sick to an event. 😡  Her test last night was negative, but it is early days.

However, outside of that, I know quite a few people who have had it, some more than once.  It seems like a lot more than 25%.  I also know many community members who refuse to report if they test positive because they don't want the numbers counted.  I don't think there is a good way to do accurate counts of the numbers of cases, especially when a seemly large percentage wants to pretend it doesn't exist and/or isn't important enough to bother reporting.  And I am not sure that all states and/or areas of the country have good ways to report cases, which also leads to a lack of good data.

[maize]

I'm pretty sure at least 80% of the population has had it at this point.

[Bootsie]

Countries that have had the highest testing rates, have rates in the neighborhood of 55 cases per 100 people.  Some of those cases would be reinfections.  So, would think an estimate of about 60% would sound reasonable.

[Clarita]

55 minutes ago, Loowit said:

I also know many community members who refuse to report if they test positive because they don't want the numbers counted.

Is reporting your positive COVID self test a thing? On the CDC website it says just to talk to your medical provider so they can provide medical care if necessary. I "reported" it to my kid's pediatrician because I had a medical question, but even when I did that no one asked me to report anything official (nor did they ask me any official questions).

If you self tested positive I was under the impression it means you have it quarantine/isolate no need to go and get a PCR test.

[Loowit]

11 minutes ago, Clarita said:

Is reporting your positive COVID self test a thing? On the CDC website it says just to talk to your medical provider so they can provide medical care if necessary. I "reported" it to my kid's pediatrician because I had a medical question, but even when I did that no one asked me to report anything official (nor did they ask me any official questions).

If you self tested positive I was under the impression it means you have it quarantine/isolate no need to go and get a PCR test.

My state has an app that you use to report positive test results.  There is also a hotline number you can call.  If you are tested at the doctors office or at a pharmacy, those numbers are reported, but home testing is up to you to report.  But I know that the response has been so different all over the country that the numbers of cases are hard to track.  And self reporting is not a good way to get accurate number anyway.  I hope I didn't come off sounding judgy.  I am feeling a bit grumpy today.

Edited October 4, 2022 by Loowit

[ScoutTN]

2 hours ago, KSera said:

I agree with the first statement, but disagree with the government on the second. Certainly, more people have had it than realize, but I think a sizeable share of those who do not think they've had it have not. The majority of the people I know who have not had a known case have taken enough precautions that it's pretty reasonable to think they would not have caught it given their very low exposure risk.

I have had only one cold (pcr tested multiple times during that) since Covid hit. Pretty sure I have not had it. I have two autoimmune diseases and am over 50, so not likely to be asymptomatic.  

[freesia]

I think about 50% of people I know have had it. 50% of my immediate family also. The rest of us have tested a lot through the other’s illnesses so I’m pretty sure we haven’t had it, but maybe we’ve fought it off. I  am curious about the possibility of a genetic reason, too. However, we are in a relatively cautious area. There are still multiple masked people in stores, for instance. If I factor in low vax areas, with few precautions, I could believe 80%. 

[Arcadia]

3 hours ago, Clarita said:

 Most people (I included) just take the rapid test start our isolation and quarantine, tell people that we know (even my husband just reported it to his workplace and unknown if they reported to the government. 

Not required to in my county. My husband’s colleagues who test positive just need to report to their higher up so that their bosses know they would be working from home for at least 10 days. The lab technicians can’t work from home so they would be basically staying home.  

https://covid19.sccgov.org/business-guidance#3925188384-3067623593

“Step 4: Report Outbreaks to the Santa Clara County Public Health Department

Most businesses are no longer required by law to report individual cases of COVID-19. However, they are required to report all outbreaks (3 or more cases as defined by CDPH) within 48 hours through the Shared Portal for Outbreak Tracking . The information provided will remain confidential and does not affect immigration status.  You may update the information you provide if you discover additional information after your initial report. The Public Health Department may ask for further information to be reported if a worksite outbreak is identified. ”

[Annie G]

I never know how to answer when asked if I’ve had Covid. (Not medical folks, just friends and such)

I had a bad cold in November 2020 but tested negative twice, via PCR test. Dh hasn’t been sick at all.  We’re both in our 60’s. Ds lives with us and every time he’s felt even mildly ill he’s tested, and always been negative.  But what are the chances none of us has had covid?  And yet it feels wrong to say we’ve ‘probably’ had it because then it sounds like we’re trying to be part of the club or something.  

[kristin0713]

No way. I barely know anyone who has not had it at this point. And I can only think of one family that I know personally that has not had it go through their house at all.  

[wathe]

Not US, but Canadian data:  a recent seroprevalence study was done in B.C. Canada.

Population infection-induced seroprevalence was 60% in Aug 2022

Sub-groups <19yo 70-80%, and >70yo about 40%.  So the vast majority of kids have had it, but still only a minority of elders.  Most of the little kids who've had it, got it before March 2022.  Elders were hit later, between March and August 2022.

figures showing infection-induced seroprevalence by age-group at different points in the pandemic is super-interesting:

[Shoeless]

We haven't had it. No one in my house has had so much as a sniffle for almost 3 years. 🤷‍♀️

[TCB]

None of my immediate family have had it, and have tested with any symptoms at all. That is despite me looking  after Covid patients for months on end.

[catz]

3 hours ago, maize said:

I'm pretty sure at least 80% of the population has had it at this point.

There is good data on this!  This is actually a decent summary of a number of studies

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220802/havent-had-covid-yet-wanna-bet

Quote

The most current findings show that 83.3% of donors have combined COVID infection- and vaccine-induced antibodies in their blood. Those findings are based on 1.4 million blood donations.

 

[vonfirmath]

4 hours ago, SKL said:

Many people have had it and never reported it to anyone.

More recently, the government has been saying almost everyone has had it, whether they know it or not.

I personally know a small number of people who have not had it as far as they know ... but it's not like they tested every day for the past 2.5 years.

When two people in our family tested positive for Covid, the other two never did (I am one of them). No one was sick. I do have shingles now so maybe I was sick with Covid then after all.  My sister and parents both had Covid last fall so despite living in a more urban area, we were the last to get it.

 

[wathe]

45 minutes ago, TCB said:

None of my immediate family have had it, and have tested with any symptoms at all. That is despite me looking  after Covid patients for months on end.

Same

[Ausmumof3]

I only know a handful of households that haven’t had it, but I do know a lot of families where one or two people didn’t get it although the rest did. My observation has been first quarter it was primary school students, second quarter high school students, July wave was older 50plus age group. It’s quite impressive how quickly we’ve managed to infect most of the population given we didn’t have it at all before November last year 😬

[Ausmumof3]

My DH is the only one of us to have it. We’ve tested when we’ve been sick. Unless we had it in the very early days when testing was impossible which seems unlikely. I think it’s convenient to believe it’s impossible to avoid infection but not actually true. Proper masks and precautions work. Maybe not perfectly, but enough.

[Selkie]

Dh and I haven’t had it. Our three kids are away at college and only one of them has had it.

[Laura Corin]

For comparison, in England 70 percent had had Covid by April  in randomised testing. Everyone in my family of origin has had it except me. In our family, both kids have had it but we parents have not,  we think.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/22/seven-in-10-people-in-england-have-had-covid-research-shows-omicron

Edited October 4, 2022 by Laura Corin

[Lecka]

I don’t think it’s possible to know.

I have never tested positive, but my husband, mom, step-dad, and sister all had Covid recently.  
 
My 3 kids and I all felt a little sick but we didn’t test positive, and we were all around each other.  My son was in the car with my step-dad when he was coughing, and we really thought he would test positive, but he didn’t.

We had stopped taking precautions when this was going on (in August).  
 

Edit:  I have no idea if we just didn’t get it, or if we had recently had it without knowing.  

Edited October 4, 2022 by Lecka

[lewelma]

In NZ, we have only had covid since February 2022 (we had the elimination strategy for the prior 2 years). At this point, 40% have tested positive, and they are estimating the number is closer to 60%. We basically did not have alpha or delta and hardly any Omicron 1. Only Omicron 2 and 4. So I can't see how the USA is at 25%. No way. 

[HomeAgain]

I honestly have no idea.

I know that in my county, nearly everyone has a septic tank so there's no data on covid waves from waste treatment facilities.  I also know that getting a test through a medical facility became very discouraged when home tests became available. so data wasn't reported that way.  I also know that as we've gone on, people have just chalked up symptoms to a cold and didn't test.

I can deduce if, in my county, there is little data available, then there are many other areas having same/similar data issues.

[Martha in GA]

7 hours ago, catz said:

The most current findings show that 83.3% of donors have combined COVID infection- and vaccine-induced antibodies in their blood. Those findings are based on 1.4 million blood donations.

I appreciate the article you cited; it was insightful. But, it doesn't seem that including vaccine-induced antibodies is indicative of how many people have actually had Covid infections. Aren't there two different antibody tests that can be done to differentiate between actual infection-induced antibodies and vaccine-induced antibodies?

[scholastica]

10 hours ago, Clarita said:

Is reporting your positive COVID self test a thing? On the CDC website it says just to talk to your medical provider so they can provide medical care if necessary. I "reported" it to my kid's pediatrician because I had a medical question, but even when I did that no one asked me to report anything official (nor did they ask me any official questions).

If you self tested positive I was under the impression it means you have it quarantine/isolate no need to go and get a PCR test.

Our health department had a portal to report positive home tests, so it was a thing here. We reported ours through it.

[KungFuPanda]

We just haven’t had it. We’ve been relatively isolated since Covid hit and haven’t been sick in three years (except for vaccine side effects). We’ve had no known exposures. Even when I did go back to work I had the unusual situation of working mostly alone with only fleeting customer interaction. I’ve been working about 16 months now and for the last 11 I’ve only spoken to customers outside or on the phone. 
 

My daughter teaches in a public high school and manage to avoid it until this year. She got Covid on the first day of school and ended up being out most of the first two weeks.  She and her husband both got it, but they don’t live with us. We do live in a super careful area, but those areas are also more populated so I’m guessing those two things balance out. 

I’m confident ds, dh, and I haven’t had it yet. We’ve been privileged enough to be able to isolate rather extremely and we’re extra motivated to protect Ds since the initial Covid strains would have been so dangerous for him. Even my return to work wasn’t necessary, I just REALLY wanted a job after staying home for 25 years. 
 

ETA: Dh just sneezed 10 times while I was typing this.  Either I jinxed myself or he’s finally broke down and cleaned is nasty, dusty office. He just put in a standing desk and was forced to reorganize. 🤣

Edited October 4, 2022 by KungFuPanda

[Faith-manor]

Only one in our family has had it, our youngest son during his last semester of college and after he had received the JnJ and then a booster of Pfizer. Runny nose, very slight cough, and done in 48 hours. He slept in the quarantine dorm for five days, tested negative, and went back to class and his own dorm room. He had home tests with him at college so when he felt like he had a cold, he took one, and then went down to the health center, and got squared away with quarantine. His college did a super awesome job with having a nice dorm set aside for that with nurses and nursing students keeping an eye on everyone, good food, entertainment, and they had streamlined the pivot to being online with their in person classes.

The rest of us all test when symptomatic of any kind of sickness. So far negative. We have had a life of nothing but major precautions, and the shunning of groups indoors since this whole mess started due to our elderly mothers' health, and their reliance on us. Our two older sons wear N95's to work and to their grad school classes, basically any time they venture out of their apartment unless they are going somewhere completely outdoors like the nature park, the dog park, etc. They also test and have not had it. I do believe that high quality masks make a big difference.

My allergies are wretched right now. If I tested every time my nose ran or I had a headache or whatever, I would test all the time. So my rule of thumb is that if the next dose of allergy med kicks in and symptoms go away, then it isn't covid since I have not read a single source that says antihistamines are an effect treatment for covid symptoms.

But maybe we have had asymptomatic cases and don't know it? I think there is zero way to know unless blood work is ordered, and I can guarantee you our insurance isn't going to pay for a test just for that.

Mark and I will be getting our boosters soon. Our youngest son, a recent college grad, just got his first major career job, and had to be moved quickly, and needed help finding a good used car (no easy task these days). So we couldn't afford to risk the fire arm, migraine, fever schtick that I always get with these vaccines. I am setting aside a three day vacation from life next week for my shot.

That said, I am not sure I believe the 80% number from the standpoint that I do know people just like us who are religiously good masking with N95/KN95, and still to this day have not returned to church indoors, use curbside pick up, work from home. Mark works remote as do 90% of his hundreds of coworkers and many of them report not having had it, and all of them have pro-vaccine and social distancing, many kept their kids home and home schooled until there were vaxes for their children's age groups.  But it would not shock me if 60% have had it.

[KSera]

7 hours ago, Lecka said:

  My 3 kids and I all felt a little sick but we didn’t test positive, and we were all around each other.    
 

If you don’t mind the question, how many times did you test, and on which day(s) of symptoms?

[QueenCat]

I haven't had a cold since Covid started... when dh had a cold, he tested multiple times. No covid. Same for the ds that lives with us.

[Annie G]

11 hours ago, MissLemon said:

We haven't had it. No one in my house has had so much as a sniffle for almost 3 years. 🤷‍♀️

 

9 hours ago, Selkie said:

Dh and I haven’t had it. Our three kids are away at college and only one of them has had it.

Thanks for speaking up. When I say we haven’t had Covid, I’m usually met with  either ‘you don’t know that’ or ‘you’re in denial’.  Sometimes in quite an aggressive way.  I’m open to the idea that we might have had asymptomatic Covid, but it would surprise me.  
It just felt good to hear someone else say they haven’t had it. 

[LuvToRead]

I only know a handful of people who haven't had it.  I do agree there are people who have had it who don't realize it.  I have a friend who had some tests done recently and found it she had had it but she had no idea!  I think 75% to 80% would be pretty accurate.

[Laura Corin]

Just now, LuvToRead said:

I only know a handful of people who haven't had it.  I do agree there are people who have had it who don't realize it.  I have a friend who had some tests done recently and found it she had had it but she had no idea!  I think 75% to 80% would be pretty accurate.

I test weekly in order to go and visit my mother in her care home.  Tests aren't 100% of course, but I have pretty good evidence.  Probably only people who test regularly for work or social purposes can be fairly sure of their status.

[Lecka]

We all tested twice and first tested after my mom and step-dad tested positive — that day.  My husband tested positive that day.  Then two days later but then we didn’t have any symptoms.

[catz]

Well, my college age kid is in a performing group that was testing 2-3x a week all through spring semester.  Pretty much all of them tested positive at some point (about 45 of them with their business team, production team, tech crew, etc).  But only about half of them were symptomatic at the most.  My kid was not symptomatic.  And no one had more than mild symptoms for a few days that may not have even prompted testing in the average 18-22 year old going about their life on a campus.  So yes, I do think there are plenty of non-IDed infections out there.  

We have been lucky here (DH, I and high school senior).  Since vaccines first rolled out, my teen has been doing some out of the house activities.  Most of them have been very covid cautious and masking and requiring vaccination.  I was feeling pretty smug about it frankly like we had it pretty well figured out.  And then my teen got it last week.  And we know exactly where she got it and the interaction involved masking (KN95s).  So unless you are literally never leaving your house and never interacting with anyone, there is a decent chance you've had at least some exposure.  

I really don't think this board is a good representative sample of the general US population.  A lot of people don't have the privilege to be that careful. A lot of people don't care at all.  A lot of people would test once, get a negative and forget about it.  The testing is pretty imperfect.

 

[kokotg]

1 hour ago, Annie G said:

 

Thanks for speaking up. When I say we haven’t had Covid, I’m usually met with  either ‘you don’t know that’ or ‘you’re in denial’.  Sometimes in quite an aggressive way.  I’m open to the idea that we might have had asymptomatic Covid, but it would surprise me.  
It just felt good to hear someone else say they haven’t had it. 

I think a lot of people are really invested in the "there's nothing you can do about it anyway!" narrative; if you decide not to take any precautions, it's convenient to believe that none of the precautions would have kept you from getting sick or getting other people sick anyway. On the other hand, it's true that there are a lot of asymptomatic and very mildly symptomatic infections. We're pretty careful about testing when we have symptoms, but we also have a lot of allergies in our midst, so...who knows? I'd be surprised if covid had managed to get through our whole family without any of us noticing, but I definitely can't be certain. 

[Lady Florida.]

It's definitely an undercount and is even stated in that article.  In my state you're not required to report a positive home test. How many people tested positive at home and didn't report it? (We reported to our local health dept. even though it wasn't a requirement.) Then there are the asymptomatic people. When dh and I got Covid ds had no symptoms. He only tested because of us otherwise he would never have known. How many asymptomatic people out there didn't test because they weren't around someone who had it? Anyone who didn't experience symptoms can say they didn't have it but unless they were tested for antibodies they won't truly know. 

I don't think we'll ever know the true number in this country or worldwide. My educated but entirely inexpert guess is somewhere between 70% - 90% counting asymptomatic people.

 

[Bootsie]

There are eight people in what I consider my "immediate family".  Of those eight people, two have had COVID--one that would have been reported and one that probably would not have been.  The eight people have been all along the range of taking precautions.  Of the two who were infected, one was fairly cautious, had been vaxed and boosted.  The other was less cautious and had not been vaxed. 

Of the six who have no known infection, one was testing three times per week much of last year; one was testing once per week for work; another was testing once per week because of being in a retirement community.  The fourth tested a number of times after direct exposure.  The fifth, lives alone and works from home, so had little chance for exposure but tested when he had been around other people.  The sixth has taken no precautions and has not been vaccinated.  

[Shoeless]

3 hours ago, Annie G said:

 

Thanks for speaking up. When I say we haven’t had Covid, I’m usually met with  either ‘you don’t know that’ or ‘you’re in denial’.  Sometimes in quite an aggressive way.  I’m open to the idea that we might have had asymptomatic Covid, but it would surprise me.  
It just felt good to hear someone else say they haven’t had it. 

We've run into the aggressiveness, too. It's weird.

I did a study for NIH that involved testing every other day for several weeks. Never showed up positive then, either. 

[Aggietyle]

Covid hasn't hit my household yet - at least not that we are aware of. We do test when we are sick, but they've all been negative.  

[73349]

In my area, there's no more counting of non-hospitalized people. *shrug* I called DS's pediatrician when he had it this summer, and they weren't even interested.

I assume we're looking for the number out of those who remain alive so far.... I don't think there's any way to know. Even if we knew how many had had it, we wouldn't necessarily know how many unique individuals that was vs. people who have had it twice or more. My doctor has concluded that I had long Covid in 2020, but my antibody test--accuracy rate unknown--was negative.

Unfortunately, it seems that with some strains, having had it does little or no good when it comes around to you again.

Edited October 4, 2022 by 73349

[Dmmetler]

As far as I know, I haven’t, and I’m very surprised. At least 2/3 of my students have had it that I know of, so I know I’ve been exposed many times over, and basically all my students have been snotty and congested this fall so far, but only a couple still mask (and two of the three I have who mask have tested positive either this past summer or fall-one works in health care, the other’s mother does). I’m vaxxed, boosted, mask, test when symptomatic, and avoid unnecessary exposure, but frankly, I feel like I’m dodging bullets and will eventually get hit. 

[Guest]

The vast majority of people in my circle have had a known case, even those who have used significant precautions. I still have not had it, as far as I know, but most of my family has and my daughter had a repeat. My youngest did get sick recently, though he tested negative both at home and at doctor. He has not had a known infection though. 
 

It’s got to be more than 25%. Hell, I would estimate more like 80%. 

[TCB]

I hope that in the future there will be more information and data about which behaviors were more and less likely to result in exposure. It won’t necessarily help with Covid too much but might be useful for future pandemics. I have my theories of course, but if I’ve learned nothing else in the last 2.5 years, I have learned how strong confirmation bias is, and how little introspection is undertaken by so many of us.

In my area church services seem to have been places of huge exposure, and my personal theory is that eating in restaurants is another big exposure opportunity. 

My dh is a counselor and sits in a smallish room, unmasked, for 50 minutes with multiple people a day. He has had many know exposures, and has switched to working online and testing, even when asymptomatic, after each exposure, and he has never tested positive. He has had a hepa filter machine in his office, between him and the client, virtually from the start, thanks to advice from Plum on this board. He’s also had 3 Moderna vaccinations. I think he is someone they should do a research study on lol.