How many people in US have had COVID-19?

[lewelma]

10 hours ago, Annie G said:

 

Thanks for speaking up. When I say we haven’t had Covid, I’m usually met with  either ‘you don’t know that’ or ‘you’re in denial’.  Sometimes in quite an aggressive way.  I’m open to the idea that we might have had asymptomatic Covid, but it would surprise me.  
It just felt good to hear someone else say they haven’t had it. 

My parents haven't had it and given their age (82), the chance they were BOTH asymptomatic is crazy low. My sister's family (2 adults and 2 kids) haven't had it either, and they test ALL the time. I homeschooled my niece and nephew by phone from January to June so they could avoid school and omicron. My husband's brother and wife haven't been sick in 3 years and are old enough (68) that asymptomatic is unlikely. I could go on and on. These are all in the USA. There are a lot of people I know that have avoided it by avoiding people.

[Annie G]

1 hour ago, lewelma said:

My parents haven't had it and given their age (82), the chance they were BOTH asymptomatic is crazy low. My sister's family (2 adults and 2 kids) haven't had it either, and they test ALL the time. I homeschooled my niece and nephew by phone from January to June so they could avoid school and omicron. My husband's brother and wife haven't been sick in 3 years and are old enough (68) that asymptomatic is unlikely. I could go on and on. These are all in the USA. There are a lot of people I know that have avoided it by avoiding people.

My dad is 90 and though he did have the first two vaccines, he did nothing else to prevent getting Covid. He drives himself somewhere every single day, grocery shops, never has used hand sanitizer, never washes his hands when returning home, and only wore a mask when it was absolutely necessary.  How he hasn’t gotten Covid is beyond me, but the man simply doesn’t get sick. so maybe he had an asymptomatic case, but I really think he just somehow has escaped it so far. 

[Heartstrings]

I think at home resting has made it impossible to know.  3 in my family tested positive and that was reported to no one.  I also know people who were sick after an exposure and didn’t test so they didn’t have to quarantine. 🤦‍♀️  
 

I do wonder if the at home tests are sensitive enough to catch asymptomatic cases.  I know I tested negative then positive 12 hours later, but I was already pretty sick when I tested.  I was “coming down with it” for about a day before I gave in and decided I had indeed caught it.  my husband also tested negative then positive the next day.  If we had just accepted the first negative we would have thought we had something else and would have said we never had Covid.  

[Brittany1116]

Of "my people" (family, neighbors, close friends), everyone vaccinated has had it atleast once, unvaccinated is about 50/50 (most of those with frequent testing for exposure, travel, work, or school). There are a few whose status I don't know. In my household, only my husband has ever tested positive and it was this year.

[wathe]

For sure cases are vastly under-reported.  That's why seroprevalence studies are so important.  Seroprevalence isn't perfect either, but it's oodles better than relying on reported case numbers

[KSera]

6 minutes ago, Heartstrings said:

I do wonder if the at home tests are sensitive enough to catch asymptomatic cases.  I know I tested negative then positive 12 hours later, but I was already pretty sick when I tested.  I was “coming down with it” for about a day before I gave in and decided I had indeed caught it.  my husband also tested negative then positive the next day.  If we had just accepted the first negative we would have thought we had something else and would have said we never had Covid.  

I think that's happening a lot right now: someone gets sick, takes a covid test, tests negative and then says it isn't covid. Sometimes they might take two. Currently, thought, the most reliable results aren't until FIVE DAYS after symptoms start. Even if you're starting to feel better then, you're still more likely to test positive on day 5 if it was covid than on your first day or two of symptoms (swabbing throat first seems to frequently give a positive a day early than nose only). FDA's home test recommendations have been changed to reflect this and recommend people with symptoms test 3 times,  ~48 hours apart each time. I've seen a lot of people who say a family member tested positive for covid, and then they got sick themself soon after, but they tested negative, so it must have been something else. I expect more often than not, it's because they didn't test far enough out from when they started feeling sick.

[Clarita]

1 hour ago, Heartstrings said:

I do wonder if the at home tests are sensitive enough to catch asymptomatic cases.

For sure they are for some of them. My son got super clear line and didn't even have so much as a sniffle, only tested because others in the family got it. 

[kokotg]

There are some people I'm surprised haven't gotten it, but when I think a bit more it's not really that weird. I have 2 aunts that aren't vaccinated, are anti-mask, and generally haven't taken any precautions...but they also are retired and just don't have all that much exposure. They go to stores, they get together with their own close family and friends sometimes, but they both live alone and don't spend time in crowded indoor spaces, don't travel, etc. Same for my mother and stepfather, although they are vaccinated and will wear masks indoors when rates are particularly high still. Of course, it's not impossible to get covid under those circumstances, but it's not terribly surprising that they haven't, either. I think there are a lot of people like that whose daily life just doesn't involve a lot of close, sustained indoor contact with other people.

[Faith-manor]

1 hour ago, kokotg said:

There are some people I'm surprised haven't gotten it, but when I think a bit more it's not really that weird. I have 2 aunts that aren't vaccinated, are anti-mask, and generally haven't taken any precautions...but they also are retired and just don't have all that much exposure. They go to stores, they get together with their own close family and friends sometimes, but they both live alone and don't spend time in crowded indoor spaces, don't travel, etc. Same for my mother and stepfather, although they are vaccinated and will wear masks indoors when rates are particularly high still. Of course, it's not impossible to get covid under those circumstances, but it's not terribly surprising that they haven't, either. I think there are a lot of people like that whose daily life just doesn't involve a lot of close, sustained indoor contact with other people.

True. The two elderly sister across the street who share a home use grocery pick up. They are in good health and rarely go to the doctor. They talk to us outside as well ad to other folks, walk every day, but wear N95 if they have to go into the dentist or eye doctor. They are outdoorsy women. One has a row boat and rows laps around their back yard pond as soon as it thaws in April, and until it gets really rainy and cold in November. Their vacations are always Air BnB up on Lake Huron, and their nephews are their only house guests, and nephews are super duper careful not to bring sickness to their house. They don't go to church, and they don't socialize anywhere but outdoors. They do not go to restaurants although they occasionally get Mexican food for curbside pick up. Their lifestyle really does lead to lack of exposure, and they are vaxed and double boosted. We have talked about that a lot, and they are very pro vaccine unlike all of our other neighbors. This was their lifestyle prior to covid so this isn't some sort of major life change for them. That said, I don't think this lifestyle is really common. I doubt that even 10% of the country lives this way. However, I could easily see 10-20% still being super careful like us. Not isolated completely, but very careful thus exposure and viral load when exposed is lower than normal by quite a bit.

I just don't know that it is possible to ascertain the actual number with any degree of accuracy without mass blood testing of those who don't believe they have had it, never reported a positive home test. Since we don't have universal healthcare and insurance isn't going to pay for testing simply as a fishing expedition to figure out who has and has not had it, I don't see the US getting a trustworthy estimate.

[vonfirmath]

9 hours ago, Clarita said:

For sure they are for some of them. My son got super clear line and didn't even have so much as a sniffle, only tested because others in the family got it. 

Agreed. Neither of the people in our family that tested positive had symptoms. We would not have tested at all if we had not had a known exposure.