wuhan - coronavirus

[Renai]

This question may have been explained before earlier in the thread, but I don't remember. When looking at the worldwide numbers (I use worldometers), we see the total infected, then broken down into active cases and closed. Under Active, it is showing only 5% are serious or critical cases, but under Closed, it shows the death rate as 21%. Does this mean that a percentage of mild cases are dying, and is anyone keeping data as to how many mild cases are passing away?

[Slache]

8 minutes ago, Seasider too said:

 

I’m certainly not a well trained medical person, but as a diver, this makes me wonder if there’s an answer in hyperbaric medicine. 

Yes, they're already doing this.

4 minutes ago, Renai said:

This question may have been explained before earlier in the thread, but I don't remember. When looking at the worldwide numbers (I use worldometers), we see the total infected, then broken down into active cases and closed. Under Active, it is showing only 5% are serious or critical cases, but under Closed, it shows the death rate as 21%. Does this mean that a percentage of mild cases are dying, and is anyone keeping data as to how many mild cases are passing away?

It takes less time to die from the virus than it does to be completely cleared so the numbers are cattywampus.

[Bootsie]

5 minutes ago, Renai said:

NThis question may have been explained before earlier in the thread, but I don't remember. When looking at the worldwide numbers (I use worldometers), we see the total infected, then broken down into active cases and closed. Under Active, it is showing only 5% are serious or critical cases, but under Closed, it shows the death rate as 21%. Does this mean that a percentage of mild cases are dying, and is anyone keeping data as to how many mild cases are passing away?

No, that does not necessarily mean that mild cases are dying.  There are two ways a case can be closed:  (1) death or (2) recovery.  Of those cases that have been closed 21% were closed because of death.  Death is a concrete measure of closing a case; the definition of recovery is a little more difficult.  

[73349]

46 minutes ago, Renai said:

This question may have been explained before earlier in the thread, but I don't remember. When looking at the worldwide numbers (I use worldometers), we see the total infected, then broken down into active cases and closed. Under Active, it is showing only 5% are serious or critical cases, but under Closed, it shows the death rate as 21%. Does this mean that a percentage of mild cases are dying, and is anyone keeping data as to how many mild cases are passing away?

Remember that deaths you see now are related to infections that were mild when they started 10-30 days ago. A case can be mild for 7-14 days before potentially escalating to serious and then to critical and then to death.

[Wheres Toto]

2 hours ago, kdsuomi said:

 

If there's nothing wrong with us asking where the supplies FEMA has are going, there's no problem with FEMA asking states where the supplies are going, too. 

In actual news here, yesterday we had no new cases. We are at a 70% recovery rate and have had one death. (It's not the beginning of the outbreak here, either.)

Where are you located?  I didn't think anyplace that's well into things had that good of a record. 

[Corraleno]

Navy Captain Removed from Carrier Tests Positive for Covid-19   

Let's hope his career is the only thing he will have sacrificed to get help for his crew. 😥

On March 24th, Navy Secretary Modly confirmed that there had been three positive cases on the ship, but expressed confidence that they had "identified all the folks they've had contact with, and we're quarantining them as well... This is an example of how we are able to keep our ships deployed at seas and underway, even with active COVID-19 cases." A week later, when Crozier's letter was leaked to the press and Modly removed him from command, there were already more than 100 cases. Now that the Navy is finally doing what Crozier asked, there are at least 155 cases, with only a fraction of the crew tested so far. Those who test negative are being quarantined in hotels on Guam, as Crozier suggested.

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Corraleno

[Corraleno]

35 minutes ago, Where's Toto? said:

Where are you located?  I didn't think anyplace that's well into things had that good of a record. 

I assume she is just referring to her county, not the state, because she's previously posted that she's in CA, which has over 300 deaths. Most of the rural counties in my state have zero cases, let alone deaths, and I think that's likely the case in much of the country, just due to distance and population density.

[Arcadia]

🇬🇧 https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coronavirus/uk-prime-minister-boris-johnson-hospitalized-with-virus/2267858/

“British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who was diagnosed with the new coronavirus more than a week ago, was admitted to a hospital Sunday for tests. 

Johnson’s office said he was hospitalized because he still has symptoms 10 days after testing positive for the virus”.

Downing St. said it was a “precautionary step” and Johnson remains in charge of the government.

[SeaConquest]

And now a tiger.

A Malayan tiger at the Bronx Zoo has tested positive for the coronavirus, according to statements from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Wildlife Conservation Society, which manages the New York City zoo.

Why it matters: It's the first known animal to test positive for the virus in the United States. The tiger is believed to have contracted the virus from an asymptomatic zookeeper.

https://www.axios.com/tiger-coronavirus-bronx-zoo-4582f9db-9c71-45b5-a7b8-df9886b4256e.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic&utm_content=1100&fbclid=IwAR0sfId4TeTnRb0ZMxFbLqqbFQMFuhvrmEYVmMEGOQkBJdUC61YDF7PDps4

[Ausmumof3]

Ok this is bizarre

https://abc7chicago.com/tiger-at-nyc-zoo-tests-positive-for-covid-19/6079258/
 

a tiger named Nadia at the Bronx zoo has tested positive for coronavirus.  Apparently the keeper was infected but asymptomatic.  The tiger developed a cough and loss of appetite. 

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, SeaConquest said:

And now a tiger.

A Malayan tiger at the Bronx Zoo has tested positive for the coronavirus, according to statements from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Wildlife Conservation Society, which manages the New York City zoo.

Why it matters: It's the first known animal to test positive for the virus in the United States. The tiger is believed to have contracted the virus from an asymptomatic zookeeper.

https://www.axios.com/tiger-coronavirus-bronx-zoo-4582f9db-9c71-45b5-a7b8-df9886b4256e.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic&utm_content=1100&fbclid=IwAR0sfId4TeTnRb0ZMxFbLqqbFQMFuhvrmEYVmMEGOQkBJdUC61YDF7PDps4

Sorry posted at the same time

[Ausmumof3]

We’ve had reports from China stating antibodies have been detected in cats but this is the first time outside China.  Does this mean the virus could be spread via cats to humans?

[Ausmumof3]

Bno:

Italy has reported the lowest number of daily deaths in more than 2 weeks: 525 new deaths were reported over the past 24 hours, along with 4,316 new cases

[RootAnn]

I am hopeful that Italy is on the other side of the peak and that we can learn from them as they open back up slowly. I am cautiously optimist that Spain is close to their peak (death-wise).

On the cat front, I'm not looking forward to telling my indoor-outdoor cat that he can't go out.

@Renai To add to what others have said, the calculation of deaths on worldometers is weird because their calculation is based on closed cases. A slightly better calculation is deaths/confirmed cases. But, of course, testing is still limited in many places and deaths are likely under-reported. It will be awhile before we know a CFR, if ever.

[alisoncooks]

2 hours ago, square_25 said:

Anyone notice that the IHME model promised updates yesterday and they didn't happen? That seems a little worrisome. 

DH pointed this out earlier. Wonder if it means anything. 

[Lucy the Valiant]

21 hours ago, Pen said:

A different view from a nyc icu doctor who thinks illness isn’t what we think it is

https://youtu.be/k9GYTc53r2o

https://youtu.be/k9GYTc53r2o

 

Wow. I wonder if there are any Italian / Spanish / French doctors with similar experiences? 

This seems important to be communicated to NIH / CDC, etc.

[Garga]

4 hours ago, square_25 said:

Anyone notice that the IHME model promised updates yesterday and they didn't happen? That seems a little worrisome. 

What is the IHME model? Why is it worrisome that the update didn’t happen?

[Arcadia]

@Sneezyone

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/04/05/coronavirus-santa-rosa-navy-captain-ousted-for-leaked-memo-tests-positive-covid19/

“Santa Rosa native Capt. Brett Crozier, removed from command of the USS Theodore Roosevelt last week after warning that action was needed to save the lives of his crew from a coronavirus outbreak, has tested positive for the coronavirus, according to a widely-circulated report on Sunday.”

[Corraleno]

10 minutes ago, square_25 said:

It seems to be a widely used model by our governments; 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/

They said they'd update and didn't. It probably isn't worrisome! 

My guess is that they are frantically trying to tweak their models, because their projections were seeming less and less accurate as the pandemic has progressed. Their estimates for this weekend seemed really off. Maybe they ran the existing model again and the numbers seemed even more unlikely so they are trying to figure out how to adjust the model.

[Corraleno]

Gov. Beshear says they are desperate for PPE because they can't get what they need from the stockpile, and every order they place themselves gets taken by the Feds:

“Our biggest problem is that just about every single order that we have out there for PPE, we get a call right when it’s supposed to be shipped and it’s typically the federal government has bought it."

[Corraleno]

6 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Right, so I worry about them really adjusting up. 

I thought the death estimates were pretty decent, at least for the states I checked. What did you find to be off? 

Number of beds needed, number of ICU beds needed, and projected date of peak seemed really out of whack for some states.

ETA: If anything, I think they will be revising those estimates down, not up.

Edited April 6, 2020 by Corraleno

[Arcadia]

@mathnerd

@Margaret in CO(Colorado’s San Miguel County, 5th paragraph)

https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/04/04/stanford-researchers-test-3200-people-for-covid-19-antibodies/

“Over 3,200 people in Santa Clara County were tested for COVID-19 antibodies on Friday and Saturday in an effort to determine the proportion of the population that either has or has recovered from coronavirus. The study, led by researchers at Stanford Medicine, is the first of its kind in the nation.

The results, expected to be released within a week, could be used to guide future public health policy in the county, according to associate professor of medicine and study co-lead Eran Bendavid. 

“It’s hard to stand up in this epidemic and say, ‘Look, we really don’t know if this epidemic is impending Armageddon,’” Bendavid said. “In order to know and reduce that uncertainty, you need numbers.”

COVID-19 antibody tests differ from nasal swab tests currently employed by healthcare providers both in method and results. Nasal swab tests take samples from the back of the throat — leading some to characterize the experience as “being stabbed in the brain” — and determine whether live coronavirus is present in the body. The antibody tests used in the Stanford study, which were supplied by Premier Biotech, require only a fingerstick of blood and test for IgM and IgG antibodies that indicate that a person either has coronavirus or had it and recovered.

Widespread antibody testing is also taking place in Colorado’s San Miguel County, where all residents will be provided with tests donated by United Biomedical executives who live in the county. Another coronavirus seroprevalence study will be conducted in Los Angeles next week, according to Bendavid. 

“It’s kind of a useless test for a hospital, but it will give us a better idea of how many people have been exposed to the virus and how bad the fatality rate is,” said Rodrigo Saavedra, who led the Hellyer Park testing site in San Jose. “Right now there is a measure of fear among the general population which might not be totally substantiated.” 

...

Study participants were compensated for their time with a $10 Amazon gift card. They will also be called about their results within the week if they tested positive for the antibodies, Bendavid anticipates.

Andrew Bogan, who aided Saavedra in running the Hellyer Park site, said site leaders took precautions to ensure safety for both the participants and volunteers.

“I’m the guy who’s been walking around saying ‘six feet, six feet, six feet’ all day long for the last two days,” Bogan said. “Everybody is operating under both county and CDC guidelines, to the best extent possible. Obviously, there has to be direct contact to take patient samples, but people are directly protected with PPE [personal protective equipment].””

 

[teachermom2834]

The IHME model was wildly off for my state. On April 1 it had our state needing 1000 more hospital beds than we even had cases. We had something like 300 hospitalized and the model predicted 4000. If they are adjusting it at all it won’t be up I can’t imagine. I saw somewhere that they overshot the hospital needs for NY by a huge amount too. But all I really know is my state. The model was terrifying and the reality was nothing close. I was eagerly watching for the update. 

[JadeOrchidSong]

她是一个武汉女性，她在家困了2个多月，今日清明，终得走出门去，在自己最熟悉的路上致哀。她的声音，令人心碎极了。

A native Wuhan woman finally was able to step out of her home after over two months' quarantine. Yesterday was Tomb Sweeping Day to remember passed loved ones. Walking on her familiar street, she cried for her city, where some whole families were wiped out. This cry is from someone who has gone through hell. I couldn't help but crying with tears all over my face.  😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

[Pen]

7 hours ago, Renai said:

This question may have been explained before earlier in the thread, but I don't remember. When looking at the worldwide numbers (I use worldometers), we see the total infected, then broken down into active cases and closed. Under Active, it is showing only 5% are serious or critical cases, but under Closed, it shows the death rate as 21%. Does this mean that a percentage of mild cases are dying, and is anyone keeping data as to how many mild cases are passing away?

 

Has anyone tried to tackle this?

1. I think some cases are only tested after dead body stage (many deaths by apparent heart attack etc may be missed entirely, but at least some like when several people die in a nursing home are getting tested, or like one in our area where for what ever reason a “heart attack” got tested.

2. Some cases move from critical to dead, others from critical to mild and ultimately to recovered, but others move from mild to critical and then to dead, sometimes quickly.

 

The overall mild to critical balance has been pretty steady globally at around 5%.

The global recovered to dead balance has been creeping up on the dead side from a low of around 5-6% deaths at best in earlier March as China was officially tapering off and other parts of world had not yet taken off, and heading up to around 20-21% in last couple of days. 

 

[vonfirmath]

18 hours ago, lewelma said:

This is exactly why NZ is not recommending face masks. Because they are uncomfortable, you touch your face more. 

 

I wasn't uncomfortable. the mask made out of a shawl kept falling down. (So it wasn't covering my nose and mouth anymore) and I'd put my hands up to adjust it. After a few times of this I realized it wasn't going to stick (Even though it stuck at home)

[mathnerd]

1 hour ago, Arcadia said:

@mathnerd

@Margaret in CO(Colorado’s San Miguel County, 5th paragraph)

https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/04/04/stanford-researchers-test-3200-people-for-covid-19-antibodies/

“Over 3,200 people in Santa Clara County were tested for COVID-19 antibodies on Friday and Saturday in an effort to determine the proportion of the population that either has or has recovered from coronavirus. The study, led by researchers at Stanford Medicine, is the first of its kind in the nation.

 

Thanks, @Arcadia I think that I might have had the COVID19 in Jan/Feb timeframe when there was no official panic about it. I would have gone to get this test had I known about it. But, I can wait until there is a commercial test freely available.

[Terabith]

I cannot keep the indoor-outdoor cat inside.  That would be....awful.  I'm just going to have to pray he's not a vector.

[Arcadia]

Singapore https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/manpower/workers-describe-crowded-cramped-living-conditions (paywalled)

“Fear is growing at a dormitory designated as an isolation area because of an infection cluster, with workers saying they do not have masks, and are living in unsanitary and crowded conditions.

At least six workers at the S11 Dormitory @ Punggol, where there are 63 confirmed cases of Covid-19, told The Straits Times that the rooms are infested with cockroaches and toilets are overflowing. Workers have to queue for food with no social distancing measures to keep them apart.”

[Arcadia]

@Pen

@TCB

https://abc7news.com/6079864/ (1:29mins video in news link)
“LOS ANGELES -- A Los Angeles doctor said he is seeing significant success in prescribing the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine in combination with zinc to treat patients with severe symptoms of COVID-19.

Hydroxychloroquine has been touted as a possible treatment for COVID-19 by President Trump among others, but it remains controversial as some experts believe it is unproven and may not be effective.

The drug has long been used for treatment of malaria and conditions such as lupus and arthritis but is not technically approved by the FDA for COVID-19. The agency, however, is encouraging trials and has provided limited emergency authorization for its use to treat COVID-19 patients.

Dr. Anthony Cardillo said he has seen very promising results when prescribing hydroxychloroquine in combination with zinc for the most severely-ill COVID-19 patients.

"Every patient I've prescribed it to has been very, very ill and within 8 to 12 hours, they were basically symptom-free," Cardillo told Eyewitness News. "So clinically I am seeing a resolution."

Cardillo is the CEO of Mend Urgent Care, which has locations in Sherman Oaks, Van Nuys and Burbank.

He said he has found it only works if combined with zinc. The drug, he said, opens a channel for the zinc to enter the cell and block virus replication.

He added that the drug should not be prescribed for those who are presenting only mild symptoms, as there are concerns about shortages for patients with other conditions who need to take the drug on a regular basis.

"We have to be cautious and mindful that we don't prescribe it for patients who have COVID who are well," Cardillo said. "It should be reserved for people who are really sick, in the hospital or at home very sick, who need that medication. Otherwise we're going to blow through our supply for patients that take it regularly for other disease processes."”

[Farrar]

Every article about the tiger and every other mammal I've read says that there's no evidence that animals like cats and dogs can be vectors.

But we know that this virus keeps breaking every rule. So.

The fact that the tigers got it makes me worry about the great apes.

[Junie]

8 hours ago, square_25 said:

Anyone notice that the IHME model promised updates yesterday and they didn't happen? That seems a little worrisome. 

It's updated now.  And the numbers (at least for the states that I looked at) look much better than last week's.

http://covid19.healthdata.org/

[Pen]

20 minutes ago, Farrar said:

Every article about the tiger and every other mammal I've read says that there's no evidence that animals like cats and dogs can be vectors.

But we know that this virus keeps breaking every rule. So.

The fact that the tigers got it makes me worry about the great apes.

 

I feel very sad about the Big Cats. And do hope they keep the apes safe.  

I expect that cats can be vectors to humans as well as humans to cats and cats to one another.

Not so sure about dogs, but think anyone sick should try to protects their dogs too.  And maybe even if not sick. In case asymptomatic. 

 

[Ausmumof3]

CDC;  CDC report shows the percentage of deaths due to pneumonia not associated with flu has increased sharply since the end of February. This could be caused by #COVID19.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview.html

[Shoeless]

31 minutes ago, Farrar said:

Every article about the tiger and every other mammal I've read says that there's no evidence that animals like cats and dogs can be vectors.

But we know that this virus keeps breaking every rule. So.

The fact that the tigers got it makes me worry about the great apes.

 

It makes me extremely worried for veterinary medicine in general. I really, really, really hope that this is not a virus that can get passed back and forth between cats and humans. 

[Arcadia]

17 minutes ago, Junie said:

It's updated now.  And the numbers (at least for the states that I looked at) look much better than last week's.

http://covid19.healthdata.org/

I think the “days until peak resource use on” changed to much earlier for California. I remembered the previous simulation put it as April 26.  Now the guesstimate is April 14th and the estimated resources needed are less too.

[The Governess]

17 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

I think the “days until peak resource use on” changed to much earlier for California. I remembered the previous simulation put it as April 26.  Now the guesstimate is April 14th and the estimated resources needed are less too.

 

California looks to be in pretty good shape.  

[Arcadia]

15 minutes ago, kdsuomi said:

 

It did. I looked at it earlier, and the peak was later and higher. 

 

3 minutes ago, lovelearnandlive said:

 

California looks to be in pretty good shape.  

Found an old KCRA screenshot so can compare. Looks much better 

[Matryoshka]

59 minutes ago, Junie said:

It's updated now.  And the numbers (at least for the states that I looked at) look much better than last week's.

http://covid19.healthdata.org/

What the heck is going on with Louisiana?  It's got one of the highest case loads in the US, both in total numbers and per 100,000 population, and one of the steepest curves, and high per-case death rate everywhere else I look, but somehow this model says they're already 5 days past peak and won't come close to capacity.  And that their total ICU bed needs are going to be less than the number of people who have already died there (only 377 ICU beds)?

For comparison, my state in total numbers has about 1,000 less cases total, 50 less cases per 100K, and less than half the deaths so far than Louisiana, but according to this chart we're still 12 days from peak and will need over 3000 ICU beds.  The math seems really funky to me...

Edited April 6, 2020 by Matryoshka

[Arcadia]

double post

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by Arcadia

[Corraleno]

I really hope those projections are true — for the vast majority of states the curves do indeed seem to have flattened. The whole west coast appears to be in pretty good shape, despite having most of the earliest cases.

These are the states that are expected to have shortages of both hospital beds and ICU beds:
NY, NJ, CT, MA, MD, NV, RI 

These states are projected to have shortages of ICU beds but not regular beds: 
GA, FL, HI, IL, IN, KY, MI, NM, ND, VA, WI

Most states are not showing any shortages of either regular or ICU beds: 
AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, DDE, DC, ID, IA, KS, LA, ME, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NH, NC, OH, OK, OR,
PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, WA, WV, WY

Edited April 6, 2020 by Corraleno

[Arcadia]

@mathnerd@Plum@TCB

Engineering update on the Tesla ventilator. 3:52 minutes 

 

[Corraleno]

1 hour ago, Matryoshka said:

What the heck is going on with Louisiana?  It's got one of the highest case loads in the US, both in total numbers and per 100,000 population, and one of the steepest curves, and high per-case death rate everywhere else I look, but somehow this model says they're already 5 days past peak and won't come close to capacity.  And that their total ICU bed needs are going to be less than the number of people who have already died there (only 377 ICU beds)?

The number of deaths predicted for today (4/5) was 42, with a range of 15-88. In reality it was 68.

Edited April 6, 2020 by Corraleno

[Ausmumof3]

Bno:Over the past 24 hours, the U.S. reported 24,599 new cases of coronavirus and 793 new deaths, raising total to 335,777 cases and 9,595 dead

Looks like what everyone is already discussing - looking like an improvement 

[Ausmumof3]

https://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.04.01.017624v1
Indomethacin has a potent antiviral activity against SARS CoV-2 in vitro and canine coronavirus in vivo

another veterinary medicine with potential for testing against Covid 19: note article is preprint only not peer reviewed 

Edited April 6, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

“20 of 38 new international arrival #coronavirus infections in #China today are in #Heilongjiang: all Chinese citizens returning from #Russia. Also, of 28 asymptomatic cases registered last 24 hours, 26 are Chinese nationals returning from #Russia. (Official figures usual caveats)“

- tweet from a bbc correspondent 

Is this an indication that Russia may be experiencing a more serious outbreak than we currently know about?

[Corraleno]

4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Bno:Over the past 24 hours, the U.S. reported 24,599 new cases of coronavirus and 793 new deaths, raising total to 335,777 cases and 9,595 dead

Looks like what everyone is already discussing - looking like an improvement 

Worldometer switches to a new day at midnight GMT, and for the last 24 hr period they are showing 25,316 new US cases and 1,165 new deaths, for a total of 336,673 cases and 9,616 deaths. So that's still a pretty high number of new deaths. ☹️

[Corraleno]

12 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.04.01.017624v1
Indomethacin has a potent antiviral activity against SARS CoV-2 in vitro and canine coronavirus in vivo

another veterinary medicine with potential for testing against Covid 19: note article is preprint only not peer reviewed 

The side effects of that one are pretty scary:

"Indomethacin can increase your risk of fatal heart attack or stroke, even if you don't have any risk factors.
Indomethacin may also cause stomach or intestinal bleeding, which can be fatal.
These conditions can occur without warning while you are using indomethacin, especially in older adults."

There are also warnings to tell your doctor before taking it if you have heart disease, asthma, liver or kidney disease, or smoke — so it seems to be most dangerous to exactly the type of patient who is most likely to have the most severe cases of CV19. 😥

[TCB]

38 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

@mathnerd@Plum@TCB

Engineering update on the Tesla ventilator. 3:52 minutes 

 

Amazing how quickly they are making progress!

[Corraleno]

The wonkiness of some of the projections in the latest IHME update made me think of this  😂