wuhan - coronavirus

[Pen]

Our area iirc had originally had projections with the hospital occupancy at initial time as it actually was and projections based on that or usual typical occupancy plus projected Covid19. But then they got everyone they could get out of hospital out, stopped elective procedures, and shut downs stopped a certain amount of other accidents and contagious illness as well.  So that having started with an already almost full hospital capacity the hospitals went very low. Afaik a lot more people choosing home births even, if they can. And then they are telling anyone not sick enough to need hospital care to stay home with suspected or proven CV19.

Hopefully it will stay low and not be the tide out to sea before tsunami surge.  A lot of that will depend on whether people Stay Home and don’t think Coast is clear and run out to frolic on the big empty looking beach. 

 

[Corraleno]

Promising vaccine with an unusual delivery system:

The vaccine candidate, which the authors are calling PittCoVacc, uses lab-made pieces of viral protein to build immunity in the same way as a flu jab.

To increase potency, the researchers also used a new drug delivery approach involving of a fingertip-sized patch of 400 tiny microneedles that inject the spike protein pieces into the skin, where the immune reaction is strongest. The patch is stuck on like a plaster and the needles – which are made entirely of sugar and the protein pieces – simply dissolve into the skin.

“We developed this to build on the original scratch method used to deliver the smallpox vaccine to the skin, but as a high-tech version that is more efficient and reproducible patient to patient,” said study co-author Louis Falo, professor and chair of dermatology. “And it’s actually pretty painless – it feels kind of like Velcro.”

The researchers said their system could be scaled up to produce the protein on an industrial scale. Hundreds of millions of doses will need to be produced worldwide.

Once manufactured, PittCoVacc can sit at room temperature until it is needed, eliminating the need for refrigeration during transport or storage, the researchers said.

“For most vaccines, you don’t need to address scalability to begin with,” Prof Gambotto said. “But when you try to develop a vaccine quickly against a pandemic that’s the first requirement.”

When tested in mice, PittCoVacc generated a surge of antibodies against Covid-19 within two weeks of the microneedle prick.

The results have not yet been tracked in the long term, but the mice who were given the Pittsburgh researchers’ Mers vaccine candidate developed enough antibodies to neutralise the virus for at least a year. The antibody levels of the rodents vaccinated against Covid-19 “seem to be following the same trend,” according to the researchers.

The team found the Covid-19 microneedle vaccine maintained its potency even after being sterilised with gamma radiation, an important step in making the drug suitable for use in humans.

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, Corraleno said:

The wonkiness of some of the projections in the latest IHME update made me think of this  😂

 

Is that what time travel looks like on a graph?  

[Ausmumof3]

3 hours ago, Corraleno said:

Worldometer switches to a new day at midnight GMT, and for the last 24 hr period they are showing 25,316 new US cases and 1,165 new deaths, for a total of 336,673 cases and 9,616 deaths. So that's still a pretty high number of new deaths. ☹️

Ah yeah it can depend when the data comes in.  I think a few countries have noticed slight dips in case numbers on weekends - maybe because no one goes in to get tested or something.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-has-millions-of-coronavirus-antibody-tests-but-they-don-t-work-j7kb55g89
 

uk antibody tests aren’t effective enough to be used 

[Pawz4me]

Regarding the tiger at the Bronx Zoo who tested positive, this is a quote from my vet source on another board:

Quote

I have seen this story and it raises some disturbing possibilities. First, I've checked my veterinary sources and find no specifics on this particular story, BUT the message boards do show a number of questions regarding an uptick in the incidence of GI related illnesses in cats with possible COVID positive owners. This is just anecdotal questions, nothing found in tests.

This particular Bronx Zoo situation seems to be similar illness (respiratory) in a number of big cats. According to the story, the tiger was tested (requires general anesthesia to get nasal swab for the test) and turned up positive for the SARS-COV2 virus (covid-19). The disease was mild, cough and loss of appetite were the signs. It is thought that the zoo worker gave the virus to the cats, not the other way around.

This is disturbing information but until we know more my advice would be that if you feel sick or test postive for corona it would be wise to avoid contact with your cat. There still has not been information I've seen about dogs with corona other than the one in Hong Kong.

 

[mlktwins]

3 hours ago, Pen said:

Our area iirc had originally had projections with the hospital occupancy at initial time as it actually was and projections based on that or usual typical occupancy plus projected Covid19. But then they got everyone they could get out of hospital out, stopped elective procedures, and shut downs stopped a certain amount of other accidents and contagious illness as well.  So that having started with an already almost full hospital capacity the hospitals went very low. Afaik a lot more people choosing home births even, if they can. And then they are telling anyone not sick enough to need hospital care to stay home with suspected or proven CV19.

Hopefully it will stay low and not be the tide out to sea before tsunami surge.  A lot of that will depend on whether people Stay Home and don’t think Coast is clear and run out to frolic on the big empty looking beach. 

 

Speaking of beaches, any thoughts on this?  Saw it on several different sites, not just this one https://www.foxnews.com/us/virus-expert-implores-surfers-to-stay-out-of-ocean-to-avoid-coronavirus .

 

 

[Bootsie]

6 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on the IHME model vs. CHIME or other models?  In our area, there seems to be a lot of debate between the two.  I'd love to believe the IHME models, since they predict a much sooner and milder peak.  

The https://covid19.healthdata.org/ have consistently looked way off to me.  Two days ago, for example, their estimation for April 4 for Louisiana was 6555 beds needed (with a range of 3073-9580), but there were only 1726 hospitalized in Louisiana on April 4.  They were projecting that the peak need would occur during the next week.  

Those projections are now that 1386 beds will be needed at the peak and that the peak has already occurred, on April 1  You will notice that there "projection" of the peak need is about 20%  below what they already know has been needed.   

What new could they possible know today that they didn't know a few days ago that makes these numbers so different?  Especially when you have been hearing on the news how bad Louisiana is?   How did it get so much better all of a sudden?  I initially questioned the high numbers being predicted; but now, I question how their model can give such different outcomes in such a short period of time.  

 

 

[Bootsie]

6 hours ago, Matryoshka said:

What the heck is going on with Louisiana?  It's got one of the highest case loads in the US, both in total numbers and per 100,000 population, and one of the steepest curves, and high per-case death rate everywhere else I look, but somehow this model says they're already 5 days past peak and won't come close to capacity.  And that their total ICU bed needs are going to be less than the number of people who have already died there (only 377 ICU beds)?

These projections show the number of beds needed today in Louisiana for the worst case scenario at about 1/3 of the number of beds that they had in the best case scenario for Louisiana as of two days ago!  So, they are now not even within their wide range of error they had two days ago--by a multiple of about 3.  

[TracyP]

7 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

The https://covid19.healthdata.org/ have consistently looked way off to me.  Two days ago, for example, their estimation for April 4 for Louisiana was 6555 beds needed (with a range of 3073-9580), but there were only 1726 hospitalized in Louisiana on April 4.  They were projecting that the peak need would occur during the next week.  

Those projections are now that 1386 beds will be needed at the peak and that the peak has already occurred, on April 1  You will notice that there "projection" of the peak need is about 20%  below what they already know has been needed.   

What new could they possible know today that they didn't know a few days ago that makes these numbers so different?  Especially when you have been hearing on the news how bad Louisiana is?   How did it get so much better all of a sudden?  I initially questioned the high numbers being predicted; but now, I question how their model can give such different outcomes in such a short period of time.  

 

 

 I read today that new hospital admissions have been down in Louisiana ever since March 31. As bad as things have looked in Louisiana, maybe it is turning around faster than they originally thought? Or maybe that's wishful thinking on my part...

[TracyP]

The local press has been asking to see the modeling our state is using. The governor keeps saying he wants to share it, but they have to find a way to make it clear how variable these models can be. He says they can change drastically day to day based on a huge number of different factors. They are running multiple models every day to try to prepare for different scenarios.

He doesn't want to panic people on one hand, or give them a sense of complacency on the other. So the creators of these models try their hardest to make predictions about the future based on the current data. At the end of the day though, they are predictions about the future. Nobody should be surprised if they don't exactly come true.

[Slache]

7 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on the IHME model vs. CHIME or other models?  In our area, there seems to be a lot of debate between the two.  I'd love to believe the IHME models, since they predict a much sooner and milder peak.  

I assumed the peak of cases would be soon because of spring breakers, but the death peak should be later on.

1 hour ago, mlktwins said:

Speaking of beaches, any thoughts on this?  Saw it on several different sites, not just this one https://www.foxnews.com/us/virus-expert-implores-surfers-to-stay-out-of-ocean-to-avoid-coronavirus .

Makes perfect sense to me.

[Bootsie]

40 minutes ago, TracyP said:

The local press has been asking to see the modeling our state is using. The governor keeps saying he wants to share it, but they have to find a way to make it clear how variable these models can be. He says they can change drastically day to day based on a huge number of different factors. They are running multiple models every day to try to prepare for different scenarios.

He doesn't want to panic people on one hand, or give them a sense of complacency on the other. So the creators of these models try their hardest to make predictions about the future based on the current data. At the end of the day though, they are predictions about the future. Nobody should be surprised if they don't exactly come true.

It seems to me that the general population can understand this as well as the politicians can.  I don't think anyone should be surprised when they don't exactly come true, but some of these errors are far from not exactly come true-- In Louisiana the estimate was between 3000 (best case) and 6800, (worst case)  But the actual number was only about 1700.  These are not long-range forecasts, but forecasts in just a few days.  I think the population has a right to see the actual models and assumptions when policy decisions are being based upon these models that have such huge inaccuracies.  

[Wheres Toto]

Predicting the future is obviously difficult but it sounds like that model is wrong about the present.  

[Matryoshka]

6 minutes ago, Happymomof1 said:

Ok, that chart make absolutely no sense for LA...   When I go on the LA site today it has 1803 hosptitalized with 561 on a vent.   That silly chart says the peak happened on April 1 and they would need 1386 eds and 286 ventilators....  ?????  

This is what I'm sayin'... It's low for *past* numbers, and somehow things peaked almost a week ago and things will only get better? What magic is that? Rosy pictures are nice, but it's like they missed a decimal point in their math... and I'm not sure how with later and laxer measures than many other states they are supposedly all done spreading faster than pretty much anyone else...

Edited April 6, 2020 by Matryoshka

15 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

It seems to me that the general population can understand this as well as the politicians can.  I don't think anyone should be surprised when they don't exactly come true, but some of these errors are far from not exactly come true-- In Louisiana the estimate was between 3000 (best case) and 6800, (worst case)  But the actual number was only about 1700.  These are not long-range forecasts, but forecasts in just a few days.  I think the population has a right to see the actual models and assumptions when policy decisions are being based upon these models that have such huge inaccuracies.  

This is the first time I have looked at these models, so forgive me if this is a dumb question.  What are they considering to be “full social distancing until May”?  Actually I think it said through May.  Does that mean until May 1 (the end of the federal slow the spread) or the end of May.  There is a statement in the FAQ that roughly says that any extra measures would be implemented within 7 days, but what measures and 7 days from when?  If the model is assuming behavior not yet implemented then I don’t think it provides a valid short term prediction.  The problem with modeling in general, not just medical, is it is only as good as the background assumptions made.

[bolt.]

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Is that what time travel looks like on a graph?  

Only if the time travelers come back and do significantly more "Bad stuff" on their visit than was happening the first time on the same date.

[SKL]

29 minutes ago, Where's Toto? said:

Predicting the future is obviously difficult but it sounds like that model is wrong about the present.  

Yes, it had wrong "actual" data for my state.

[Ausmumof3]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1246975275021348865
 

interesting twitter thread about why this virus exists asymptomatically and spreads better than Sars1.  Explains science stuff in simple language.  He seems very confident about a successful vaccine which is reassuring.

“But b/c SARS-1 patients got very sick from all the virus replicating in their lungs, they were quarantined before others got close enough to get sneezed or coughed on.

SARS-2, on the other hand, takes up residence in the throat cells first, which doesn’t cause significant symptoms. The person can remain asymptomatic or might not think they have anything worse than a cold. And from that person’s throat …it can readily spread to others. Over the course of a week, in some patients, it will move into the lung neighborhood and replicate just as SARS-1 would, causing severe symptoms, by which point the person is quarantined, but no matter since it had successfully spread.“

 

[SKL]

One of our major hospitals had some stuff on facebook recently saying that (1) asymptomatic folks only rarely spread the virus and (2) this virus is spread mainly through the air and NOT from touching surfaces or your face.  Is this what the current understandings are?

[Pen]

2 hours ago, Pawz4me said:

Regarding the tiger at the Bronx Zoo who tested positive, this is a quote from my vet source on another board:

 

 

Thank you.

 I woke up wondering how the Tiger(s) got it.  

I wonder what normal contact distance between Tiger and zoo keepers is.

Less than 6 feet for extended time period? 

Or was this longer distance contagion through aerosolization?

Or aerosolization from droplets on surface that then dry and become part of airborne micro particulates?  

Or from direct contact of contaminated surfaces?

Did the Tiger touch a surface with her paw and then rub her eyes?  Probably not, but as cats do wash faces, I guess maybe possible for a Tiger to transfer paw to mucus membrane. 

Tigers are already endangered. And I already find it sad that they are in zoos, though their situation in wild is so bad sometimes maybe that’s safer for species survival.  But maybe not if they are getting sick from humans. I hope they do not take a sudden cytokine storm turn for the worse.  I hope they do okay. 

[Pen]

1 hour ago, TracyP said:

The local press has been asking to see the modeling our state is using. The governor keeps saying he wants to share it, but they have to find a way to make it clear how variable these models can be. He says they can change drastically day to day based on a huge number of different factors. They are running multiple models every day to try to prepare for different scenarios.

He doesn't want to panic people on one hand, or give them a sense of complacency on the other. So the creators of these models try their hardest to make predictions about the future based on the current data. At the end of the day though, they are predictions about the future. Nobody should be surprised if they don't exactly come true.

 

Yes. I agree.

(eta: this is not about specific errors in models, nor about any specific model or state, but generally about predictions being made a few weeks ago and present and future) 

iirc they were predicting originally based on scenarios like if there were no changes.  And that is why many politicians came to realize that Stay Home and Physical Distancing etc was needed.  

What happens is dependent on behavior as well as circumstances beyond current human control such as viral mutations.  

Human behavior is critical in what ends up happening. And the predictions and charts etc itself can affect the behavior. 

Sadly if people do the right things and avoid having bad situation as predicted for what would have happened had business and social life as usual continued, a lot of people then conclude that the prediction was erroneous, not realizing that the total of large and small actions helped prevent the predicted crisis.

 

It would be like when our civil engineers let water out of a reservoir before expected severe storms to avoid flooding or even dam failure.

Then the storm comes — and with water level lowered there’s room for the extra water and storm run off debris. So the reservoir doesn’t flood and the dam holds—and then a bunch of ignorant people say, see, it was all fine those predictions about flooding and possible dam collapse were hooey.  There wasn’t a flood and the dam held.   Well, the dam management is mostly in the hands of civil engineers understand. 

But in the CV19 potential flood situation it is unfortunately in the hands and feet of many people including the ignorant ones.  

Eta:  Like the people are the precipitation.  They decide whether they will act such as to be a deluge or a drizzle. 

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by Pen

[Slache]

I don't understand why everything isn't going to skyrocket after we all go back to work.

[Pen]

40 minutes ago, Mom2mthj said:

This is the first time I have looked at these models, so forgive me if this is a dumb question.  What are they considering to be “full social distancing until May”?  Actually I think it said through May.  Does that mean until May 1 (the end of the federal slow the spread) or the end of May.  There is a statement in the FAQ that roughly says that any extra measures would be implemented within 7 days, but what measures and 7 days from when?  If the model is assuming behavior not yet implemented then I don’t think it provides a valid short term prediction.  The problem with modeling in general, not just medical, is it is only as good as the background assumptions made.

 

My personal interpretation , which may have nothing to do with what “they” mean, and I did not see original that you see, so just basing my comments on your quote:

Plan to Stay at Home.

Unless it is Life and Death urgent to not be at home. 

Or unless you are in a critical essential service. (Which does not include hair dressing.)  

Make a mask or equivalent and wear it.  And also stay at least 6 feet away from others even with mask on, unless you are a medical worker or emergency first responder.  (Not including immediate household family.) 

[Garga]

11 hours ago, vonfirmath said:

 

I wasn't uncomfortable. the mask made out of a shawl kept falling down. (So it wasn't covering my nose and mouth anymore) and I'd put my hands up to adjust it. After a few times of this I realized it wasn't going to stick (Even though it stuck at home)

 

This is a good point—you must practice wearing the ask at home before shopping.  But you must do the things at home that you do shopping.  When I wore my mask to the store a few weeks ago sort of as practice before we had a lot of cases in my area, I discovered that shopping involves a lot of looking down.  A lot of looking down and reaching for things on lower shelves.  Looking down when putting stuff in the cart.  Looking down when putting stuff on the conveyor belt.  Looking down when bagging things.  My first mask at the first store kept slipping.  I put on a new mask for the second store, but better secured it to my ears and this time the 2nd mask stayed put.

I’d suggest making a mask and wearing it around the house for a few hours doing a bunch of chores where your head is moving all around and you’re stretching and reaching for things and looking up and down and then see if it stays up.  

[Pen]

32 minutes ago, Slache said:

I don't understand why everything isn't going to skyrocket after we all go back to work.

 

If people would have a very clamped down extreme Stay Home period so that at least symptomatic cases can be identified and stopped from spreading and spreading, it can bring the number of cases in communities and Nationally way down. It’s like having a general national quarantine period.

Then if for awhile people go back to doing things but with limits on international travel, and whenever possible wearing masks and other measures like as much physical distance as possible still,  that would tend to reduce spread from remaining asymptomatic carriers,  it could be extremely reduced. Down to a less than 1.0 R0. 

But it depends on people cooperating in a mass nationwide quarantine — and for USA, also depends on Canada and Mexico even if overseas travel is suspended for non urgent travel, because virus doesn’t stop at border crossings, and has shown it can cross species. 

I think USA theoretically could even eradicate CV19 despite being so far behind the 8ball.

But I doubt that sufficient numbers of Americans’ attitudes and behavior will be such that full domestic eradication is possible. Too many non cooperative and non compliant people.   Unlike maybe NZ where I think they have what it takes to get CV19 eradicated there. And I also don’t think that US borders can stay shut long enough to prevent back flow even if there is domestic eradication.  But it could be hugely reduced. Gotten down to what is manageable pending medicines manufacturing, better methods of detection in airports  etc. 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by Pen

[Arcadia]

Instacart https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/02/instacart-to-provide-shoppers-with-face-masks-hand-sanitizers-and-thermometers/

“The kits will be available for free to shoppers starting next week. Shoppers, according to Instacart, will be able to request a kit by registering with their Instacart shopper email address. In order to keep up with demand, Instacart will update its inventory daily. For in-store shoppers, Instacart will bring the face masks to shoppers at their respective retail locations.

“Our teams have been working around the clock over the last few weeks to proactively secure personal protective equipment like hand sanitizer and face masks, without taking away valuable resources from healthcare workers given inventory delays and global supply scarcity,” Instacart President Nilam Ganenthiran said in a statement. “We want to provide customers with an essential service they can rely on to get their groceries and household goods, while also offering safe and flexible earnings opportunities to Instacart personal shoppers. As COVID-19 evolves, today’s health and safety solutions will be tomorrow’s table stakes, and our teams are working quickly to introduce new services and features to ensure our shopper community is supported as this situation unfolds.””

[Pen]

1 minute ago, Garga said:

 

This is a good point—you must practice wearing the ask at home before shopping.  But you must do the things at home that you do shopping.  When I wore my mask to the store a few weeks ago sort of as practice before we had a lot of cases in my area, I discovered that shopping involves a lot of looking down.  A lot of looking down and reaching for things on lower shelves.  Looking down when putting stuff in the cart.  Looking down when putting stuff on the conveyor belt.  Looking down when bagging things.  My first mask at the first store kept slipping.  I put on a new mask for the second store, but better secured it to my ears and this time the 2nd mask stayed put.

I’d suggest making a mask and wearing it around the house for a few hours doing a bunch of chores where your head is moving all around and you’re stretching and reaching for things and looking up and down and then see if it stays up.  

 

I taped my masking in place:  Originally because my glasses were fogging, but I think tape also helped keep mask secure and covered edge gaps. 

 

[Arcadia]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/japan-state-of-emergency-hospital-beds-gear-covid-19-12613984

“TOKYO: As Japan faces a fresh wave of coronavirus infections and the government prepares for a state of emergency, medical staff say a shortage of beds and a rise in cases linked to hospitals are pushing Tokyo's medical system to the brink of collapse.

The crisis has already arrived at Eiju General Hospital, a pink, 10-storey building in central Tokyo, which has reported 140 cases of COVID-19 in the past two weeks. Of those, at least 44 are doctors, nurses and other medical staff.

On a recent weekday, the glass doors of Eiju General were plastered with posters saying the hospital was closed until further notice.

More than 60 patients with the virus are still being treated inside. One person who was transferred to another hospital infected others, according to health officials in Tokyo's Taito ward.

Japan has only a small fraction of the number of cases reported by its neighbours China and South Korea. Yet scenarios similar to that at Eiju General are playing out across Tokyo, as a dozen doctors and nurses in the city told Reuters there is a shortage of gear and staff even as infections surge.

"We could empty out an entire ward and use it just for corona patients, but that means those patients (with other illnesses) will have to go elsewhere," said a doctor specialising in infectious diseases at a major hospital in the greater Tokyo area. "If we can't do that, it will lead to the virus spreading all through the hospital and lead to a collapse of our medical system."”

[Bootsie]

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I think the models work best in states that are not having serious testing shortages.

Would you happen to know which states are have less testing shortages?  Or, how quickly various states are getting test results?  It would be interesting to compare how well the model is doing in those instances.

I was just informed that a student in university apartments tested positive--well the test was on March 19 and he did not receive results until after April 1.  By the time he got the results he had been symptom free for over 7 days an was out of quarantine.  If that big of a delay is common, or if that delay is happening in some states but not others, then we are using very poor data in these models. 

 

1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

My personal interpretation , which may have nothing to do with what “they” mean, and I did not see original that you see, so just basing my comments on your quote:

Plan to Stay at Home.

Unless it is Life and Death urgent to not be at home. 

Or unless you are in a critical essential service. (Which does not include hair dressing.)  

Make a mask or equivalent and wear it.  And also stay at least 6 feet away from others even with mask on, unless you are a medical worker or emergency first responder.  (Not including immediate household family.) 

That is sort of my point.  Unless you know the specific underlying assumptions of every iteration of the model then it is impossible to use the results in any meaningful way.  Did the predictions change because they changed the assumptions or because the situation on the ground changed?  The data posted earlier today had charts for 50 states that have full social distancing in the title to make their predictions of peak resource needs, but actual implementation is different between different states.  Are they assuming where every state would hypothetically be if they implemented the strictest measures then it isn’t very useful as a short term tool or does it assume where they will be if they keep on their current plans.

[Frances]

12 hours ago, Arcadia said:

@Pen

@TCB

https://abc7news.com/6079864/ (1:29mins video in news link)
“LOS ANGELES -- A Los Angeles doctor said he is seeing significant success in prescribing the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine in combination with zinc to treat patients with severe symptoms of COVID-19.

Hydroxychloroquine has been touted as a possible treatment for COVID-19 by President Trump among others, but it remains controversial as some experts believe it is unproven and may not be effective.

The drug has long been used for treatment of malaria and conditions such as lupus and arthritis but is not technically approved by the FDA for COVID-19. The agency, however, is encouraging trials and has provided limited emergency authorization for its use to treat COVID-19 patients.

Dr. Anthony Cardillo said he has seen very promising results when prescribing hydroxychloroquine in combination with zinc for the most severely-ill COVID-19 patients.

"Every patient I've prescribed it to has been very, very ill and within 8 to 12 hours, they were basically symptom-free," Cardillo told Eyewitness News. "So clinically I am seeing a resolution."

Cardillo is the CEO of Mend Urgent Care, which has locations in Sherman Oaks, Van Nuys and Burbank.

He said he has found it only works if combined with zinc. The drug, he said, opens a channel for the zinc to enter the cell and block virus replication.

He added that the drug should not be prescribed for those who are presenting only mild symptoms, as there are concerns about shortages for patients with other conditions who need to take the drug on a regular basis.

"We have to be cautious and mindful that we don't prescribe it for patients who have COVID who are well," Cardillo said. "It should be reserved for people who are really sick, in the hospital or at home very sick, who need that medication. Otherwise we're going to blow through our supply for patients that take it regularly for other disease processes."”

Early on I saw recommendations to use zinc lozenges like Cold Eeze as you would for any cold or flu if you think you have the virus, including laying down in order to maximize the benefit. Is that still recommended?

[RootAnn]

10 minutes ago, Seasider too said:

This has me wondering if thoughts and practices will change with regard to TNR and feral cats/ feral cat colony management. 

My DD is on the board of a TNR non-profit, so this has been on my mind as well. Also, people abandoning their cats in higher numbers (thus making more of a problem with strays and more future feral cats).

[Frances]

2 hours ago, Slache said:

I don't understand why everything isn't going to skyrocket after we all go back to work.

It will unless there is a concrete plan in place and adequate resources for testing, contact tracing, and quarantine. 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/business/economy/coronavirus-economy.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

[TracyP]

3 hours ago, Bootsie said:

It seems to me that the general population can understand this as well as the politicians can.  I don't think anyone should be surprised when they don't exactly come true, but some of these errors are far from not exactly come true-- In Louisiana the estimate was between 3000 (best case) and 6800, (worst case)  But the actual number was only about 1700.  These are not long-range forecasts, but forecasts in just a few days.  I think the population has a right to see the actual models and assumptions when policy decisions are being based upon these models that have such huge inaccuracies.  

I separated the post you quoted from the post about Louisiana. I don't know what is going on with Louisiana's numbers, the numbers for my state seem accurate. It was just a general observation - these models can vary so much.

[TracyP]

2 hours ago, square_25 said:

I think the models work best in states that are not having serious testing shortages.

FWIW, the IHME models are based on death rates, not testing.

[TracyP]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

 

You don't know the death rates without testing. 

States are missing far more mild cases by not testing than they are deaths. It is imperfect, like everything in this. 

[Pen]

39 minutes ago, Frances said:

Early on I saw recommendations to use zinc lozenges like Cold Eeze as you would for any cold or flu if you think you have the virus, including laying down in order to maximize the benefit. Is that still recommended?

 

I don’t think anyone knows for sure.

The recommendation originally came from someone known personally to a member of my extended family and he is a legitimate person, who did legitimate research—but it  is based on research on viruses (coronaviruses) many years back.

 It is what he is planning to do personally if he is feeling ill. 

[TracyP]

2 hours ago, Bootsie said:

Would you happen to know which states are have less testing shortages?  Or, how quickly various states are getting test results?  It would be interesting to compare how well the model is doing in those instances.

I was just informed that a student in university apartments tested positive--well the test was on March 19 and he did not receive results until after April 1.  By the time he got the results he had been symptom free for over 7 days an was out of quarantine.  If that big of a delay is common, or if that delay is happening in some states but not others, then we are using very poor data in these models. 

 

You could check this out to see how much each state is testing. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2020/03/26/see-how-much-coronavirus-testing-is-happening-in-each-state/amp/

[Arcadia]

Texas 😡

https://abc7news.com/18-year-old-said-she-was-willfully-spreading-covid-19-police-say/6080941/

“CARROLLTON, Texas -- Police in Carrollton, Texas, are asking for the public's help to find an 18-year-old seen on social media claiming to be positive for COVID-19 and willfully spreading it.

The woman, identified as Lorraine Maradiaga, will be charged with terroristic threat.

Police said in a tweet Sunday evening they don't have confirmation that Maradiaga is actually a threat to public health.

However, they are taking her actions on social media seriously.

Anyone with information about her is urged to call in tips at 972-466-3333 or email CrimeTips@CityofCarrollton.com.”
 

[73349]

20 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

I don't, either. I don't think you can eradicate diseases that have had a million cases (which we will by the end, right?) 

https://ourworldindata.org/smallpox

I'm hopeful, but we're nowhere near there yet. We kind of almost have polio beaten down (and that's at risk right now in areas where vaccination programs are door-to-door). 😕

[Farrar]

I'm so done with these sites that try to predict the peak in specific states. It's complete crap, as that one for Louisiana illustrates.

[mumto2]

17 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I don’t think anyone knows for sure.

The recommendation originally came from someone known personally to a member of my extended family and he is a legitimate person, who did legitimate research—but it  is based on research on viruses (coronaviruses) many years back.

 It is what he is planning to do personally if he is feeling ill. 

Zinc was also part of the recommendations that Dh received for our family from someone he was in contact with......I never posted because they tallied with your rec’s

[TracyP]

16 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

Yeah, but I don't think they are working from rates of death as much as total numbers. So in places they aren't finding a significant fraction of deaths, they are underestimating. 

I took it as they are looking at the total deaths in a state to figure out how many cases there likely are. I think we have enough places worldwide that are testing, that we have a pretty good handle on the death rate (when people are able to get the medical care they need). 

[73349]

Just now, CuriousMomof3 said:

How many people got smallpox?  
 

I think it’s possible but not quickly.

The link I gave has charts. Looked like hundreds of thousands a year. For example, China alone had more than 100K in the year 1950.

[TracyP]

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Is that up to date? 

Last I saw it was updated on the 2nd.

[TracyP]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

You are right, they are. But they don't know the total number of deaths in lots of places that aren't testing enough. They can only work with the numbers given to them. 

Frankly, looking at the super spiky numbers coming out of some of the states makes me really suspicious about how they're managing their data. 

Yeah, I can't speak to the accuracy. They could be way off the mark. But I think using the number of deaths to figure out the number of cases makes a lot of sense. I could be biased, though. That's what I've been doing all along, lol.

[Pen]

52 minutes ago, Frances said:

Early on I saw recommendations to use zinc lozenges like Cold Eeze as you would for any cold or flu if you think you have the virus, including laying down in order to maximize the benefit. Is that still recommended?

 

Here is the original afaik— note it is not giving internet advice what you or anyone else should do. It is saying what he himself was doing as of Feb 26. I don’t know if his ideas have since changed. Particularly for example in view of now knowing that it can aerosolize and be in air longer than he thought from other coronaviruses research.  And now knowing that it isn’t only lung specific.

As this was apparently authentic though from someone who literally “wrote the chapter” on coronaviruses, it is also easy to see how errors were being made by governments giving out recommendations too.  

It appears clear now with 20/20 hindsight that this novel coronavirus is worse than a researcher on coronaviruses expected. 

Bold parts are added by me except in the title which is how it came to me. 

I don’t have zinc lozenges—my experience has been that I get severely nauseated from zinc.  

However, adding on what seems to be some good results for hydroxychloroquine plus zinc, I think maybe zinc lozenges would be worth having if still available 

 

“Coronavirus Recommendations

Coronavirus Recommendations from a pathologist and molecular virologist. Jim James Robb, MD FCAP

Date: February 26, 2020 at 2:35:50 PM EST

Subject: What I am doing for the upcoming COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic

 

Dear Colleagues,

as some of you may recall, when I was a professor of pathology at the University of California San Diego, I was one of the first molecular virologists in the world to work on coronaviruses (the 1970s). I was the first to demonstrate the number of genes the virus contained. Since then, I have kept up with the coronavirus field and its multiple clinical transfers into the human population (e.g., SARS, MERS), from different animal sources. The current projections for its expansion in the US are only probable, due to continued insufficient worldwide data, but it is most likely to be widespread in the US by mid to late March and April.

Here is what I have done and the precautions that I take and will take. These are the same precautions I currently use during our influenza seasons, except for the mask and gloves.:

1) NO HANDSHAKING! Use a fist bump, slight bow, elbow bump, etc.

2) Use ONLY your knuckle to touch light switches. elevator buttons, etc.. Lift the gasoline dispenser with a paper towel or use a disposable glove.

3) Open doors with your closed fist or hip - do not grasp the handle with your hand, unless there is no other way to open the door. Especially important on bathroom and post office/commercial doors.

4) Use disinfectant wipes at the stores when they are available, including wiping the handle and child seat in grocery carts.

5) Wash your hands with soap for 10-20 seconds and/or use a greater than 60% alcohol-based hand sanitizer whenever you return home from ANY activity that involves locations where other people have been.

6) Keep a bottle of sanitizer available at each of your home's entrances. AND in your car for use after getting gas or touching other contaminated objects when you can't immediately wash your hands.

7) If possible, cough or sneeze into a disposable tissue and discard. Use your elbow only if you have to. The clothing on your elbow will contain infectious virus that can be passed on for up to a week or more!

 

What I have stocked in preparation for the pandemic spread to the US:

1) Latex or nitrile latex disposable gloves for use when going shopping, using the gasoline pump, and all other outside activity when you come in contact with contaminated areas.      Note: This virus is spread in large droplets by coughing and sneezing. This means that the air will not infect you! BUT all the surfaces where these droplets land are infectious for about a week on average - everything that is associated with infected people will be contaminated and potentially infectious. The virus is on surfaces and you will not be infected unless your unprotected face is directly coughed or sneezed upon. This virus only has cell receptors for lung cells (it only infects your lungs) The only way for the virus to infect you is through your nose or mouth via your hands or an infected cough or sneeze onto or into your nose or mouth.

2) Stock up now with disposable surgical masks and use them to prevent you from touching your nose and/or mouth (We touch our nose/mouth 90X/day without knowing it!). This is the only way this virus can infect you - it is lung-specific. The mask will not prevent the virus in a direct sneeze from getting into your nose or mouth - it is only to keep you from touching your nose or mouth.

3) Stock up now with hand sanitizers and latex/nitrile gloves (get the appropriate sizes for your family). The hand sanitizers must be alcohol-based and greater than 60% alcohol to be effective.

4) Stock up now with zinc lozenges. These lozenges have been proven to be effective in blocking coronavirus (and most other viruses) from multiplying in your throat and nasopharynx. Use as directed several times each day when you begin to feel ANY "cold-like" symptoms beginning. It is best to lie down and let the lozenge dissolve in the back of your throat and nasopharynx. Cold-Eeze lozenges is one brand available, but there are other brands available.

 

I, as many others do, hope that this pandemic will be reasonably contained, BUT I personally do not think it will be. Humans have never seen this snake-associated virus before and have no internal defense against it. Tremendous worldwide efforts are being made to understand the molecular and clinical virology of this virus. Unbelievable molecular knowledge about the genomics, structure, and virulence of this virus has already been achieved.

BUT, there will be NO drugs or vaccines available this year to protect us or limit the infection within us. Only symptomatic support is available. I hope these personal thoughts will be helpful during this potentially catastrophic pandemic. You are welcome to share this email.

Good luck to all of us!

Jim James Robb, MD F Coronavirus Recommendations CAP “

[Bootsie]

37 minutes ago, TracyP said:

You could check this out to see how much each state is testing. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2020/03/26/see-how-much-coronavirus-testing-is-happening-in-each-state/amp/

Well this site indicates that Louisiana has tested more people/million than any state besides Washington. Its rate is about 2 1/2 times greater than New York.

[Frances]

7 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

Well this site indicates that Louisiana has tested more people/million than any state besides Washington. Its rate is about 2 1/2 times greater than New York.

One county in my state has tested three times more than the state average, although they have very few cases. their rate of testing is more on par with very hard hit areas. but they have very different hospital systems than the major population areas of the state.