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Just now, square_25 said:

Yeah, I think H1N1 wound up with a CFR less than that of the usual flu. Although of course, not having immunity is still a problem. But then they had effective antivirals, too, I think? 

I don’t really remember.  It didn’t end up being a huge thing here though there were a few unexpected deaths.

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5 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yeah, I think H1N1 wound up with a CFR less than that of the usual flu. Although of course, not having immunity is still a problem. But then they had effective antivirals, too, I think? 

And a vaccine by October. We went into the local school and vaccinated hundreds of kids.

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23 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

Brown also said looking at all the data, there is little concern of infection from hospital scrubs, but he understand the public fear.”

Our local area is not to surge level yet, and my DH showers and changes before coming home, and he segregates all his work laundry to be washed separately. He's been encouraged to from the get go. With PPE shortages, I don't understand how going out in public in scrubs AFTER work can be particularly safe. And while he does get pretty close to some patients and does some direct care, he's not a nurse that would be giving even more direct care. Someone enlighten me. 

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1 minute ago, kbutton said:

Our local area is not to surge level yet, and my DH showers and changes before coming home, and he segregates all his work laundry to be washed separately. He's been encouraged to from the get go. With PPE shortages, I don't understand how going out in public in scrubs AFTER work can be particularly safe. And while he does get pretty close to some patients and does some direct care, he's not a nurse that would be giving even more direct care. Someone enlighten me. 

We are wearing hospital scrubs to look after Covid patients. If we are working in the non Covid section we wear our own scrubs as normally would. I wear my own scrubs in to work, if I’m on the Covid end I change into hospital ones. At the end of the day I change back into mine. I take my shoes off outside my car, put them in a bag in the back and put on different shoes to drive home. When I get home I go in the basement, own scrubs off and straight in the washing machine and then shower. I don’t stop on my way home, even for gas, because nurses in scrubs have been verbally abused and threatened in a town not far from here.

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1 minute ago, TCB said:

We are wearing hospital scrubs to look after Covid patients. If we are working in the non Covid section we wear our own scrubs as normally would. I wear my own scrubs in to work, if I’m on the Covid end I change into hospital ones. At the end of the day I change back into mine. I take my shoes off outside my car, put them in a bag in the back and put on different shoes to drive home. When I get home I go in the basement, own scrubs off and straight in the washing machine and then shower. I don’t stop on my way home, even for gas, because nurses in scrubs have been verbally abused and threatened in a town not far from here.

That makes more sense. 

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25 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about?__twitter_impression=true
 

maybe concerning.  Research from China is showing some recovered patients have very low antibody levels, raising concerns about reinfection and possibility of an effective vaccine.

Quoting myself because I’ve been thinking about this.  It looks like the lower antibodies were mostly in younger people. So maybe we will have a vaccine for the more at risk older people even if it’s less effective in the younger population.  And is there a reason why older people seem to have a stronger immune system reaction and is that good or bad?

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1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Yeah, I think H1N1 wound up with a CFR less than that of the usual flu. Although of course, not having immunity is still a problem. But then they had effective antivirals, too, I think? 

I got H1N1.  I have never ever been so sick.  I was in bed for a full month (30 full days) and ended up with a sinus infection, lung infection, and eye infections, as the bacteria moved in due to my weakened state.  I also got a torn esophagus that took 9 months to heal.  I was 39 with no risk factors.    

Edited by lewelma
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10 hours ago, Corraleno said:

I don't think you can extrapolate patterns like that based on a small number of random emails sent to one person.

 

Fair enough.

 I do still think different regions of USA have different predominant modes.  

10 hours ago, Corraleno said:

I think being concerned about planning and wanting to see some decent data modeling is much more a function of individual personality and circumstances. Some people are planners and some are more go-with-the-flow.

 

I have tended to be a planner.

My planning for this event is to anticipate longer rather than shorter. 

10 hours ago, Corraleno said:

People who have/had important plans and activities that have been postponed are going to be more anxious about knowing when those things can resume than those whose plans are more flexible or easy to reschedule. For me, personally, it doesn't much matter whether restrictions lift in two weeks or 6 months, but that difference would literally be life-altering for DS, and having a "best estimate based on what we know now" is far less anxiety-inducing than "we have no idea."

 

It is quite life altering for my 18 yo also. 

I don’t think 2 weeks is realistic. 

 

If people would do very hard core proactive Stay Home, if at all possible, so we could have a Hammer and Dance approach, I think 4 more weeks might be a possibility.

If people won’t very proactively cooperate with that, and even do more than the legal requirements if they are able to do so , then I think we might be looking at something more like 6 months with significant restrictions

Unfortunately even just from reading on the Covid19 threads on WTM, let alone what is in News Coverage I doubt there’s enough willingness to Stay Home in many countries  without fairly Draconian measures to enforce it.  I wish it were otherwise.  I don’t know if that will mean that there do end up being draconian enforcement measures in most parts of world, or whether that will mean a much longer drawn out half arsed measured restrictions approach instead of a short Hammer approach, and then a more extended Dance.  

The only place(s) I’m hearing about the necessary sort of cooperation is NZ.  And to some degree South Korea other than that mega church debacle. 

Personally, I don’t think “peaks” etc are as relevant as when

1) antibody testing might become widely available and used, and it becomes determined that there is already widespread immunity

and/or 

2) very effective treatments are widely available 

and /or 

3) Safe and effective vaccines might be widely available 

and /or

4 ) substantial natural immunity is achieved as evidenced by an end of new cases that continues as restrictions are carefully lifted (that is if antibody testing doesn’t work so that irl actual immunity has to be relied upon) 

 

 

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55 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Ugh. That sounds awful!! Sorry to downplay  it — I was just going off official stats. Sounds like there was more to it than that!

All good.  I was just thinking that young people do get very sick from these things, it is just not statistically likely.  I remember talking about it years later, and my mom was horrified "why didn't you call me, I would have come down to help out."  But you see, I was too sick to call anyone.  And at the time I was homeschooling my 5 and 8 year olds, and someone asked me what *they* did for that month.  Well, I have no idea.  I was too sick to watch kids. In fact, I was too sick to really care about anything. And strangely, no one else in the house got it.

Edited by lewelma
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Just now, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

What does bno stand for?

 

Breaking news online  - is a bit of a backyard news organisation but they seem to always check sources etc. and not post conspiracy - so I just tag so people know where I’m getting it from and how reliable it’s likely to be. 

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26 minutes ago, square_25 said:

That’d be my assumption. Especially combined with all the deaths at home...

 

I think that not going to hospital due to fear is definitely happening. 

Also on less disturbing side: perhaps being more careful and cautious about what is done— not (except stressed essential workers overdoing it) going out and trying to chop wood to exhaustion, mow the lawn on hot day in blazing sun...

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In re mixed messages and people not knowing what to do— I don’t know if this was already posted or not. And maybe even if it was, it is a good reminder. 

[Note: the linked article is from March 15, so some is out of date, as to level of legal physical closeness in the public arena,  but the overall message remains the same now as then, and people still seem confused or in some cases deliberately disobeying.

As article was written bars, restaurants, and I think also schools in NYC were still open. Orders to close schools came out that day, and bars and restaurants (except takeout maybe?) came out the next day...I think.

And I guess the situation in New York City shows some of the results of still having so much open as recently as March 15.]

The takeaway is:

” 

No Matter What Some Public Officials Say, the Message You Need to Hear Is “Stay Home”

Mixed messaging from all levels of government is putting Americans at risk and will speed the spread of the coronavirus. No matter what politicians say, public health experts agree. Stay home, even if you feel fine.“

 

https://www.propublica.org/article/no-matter-what-some-public-officials-say-the-message-you-need-to-hear-is-stay-home/amp

Edited by Pen
Added note to clarify article date so as not to have people be confused
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41 minutes ago, Pen said:

In re mixed messages and people not knowing what to do— I don’t know if this was already posted or not. And maybe even if it was, it is a good reminder. 

The takeaway is:

” 

No Matter What Some Public Officials Say, the Message You Need to Hear Is “Stay Home”

Mixed messaging from all levels of government is putting Americans at risk and will speed the spread of the coronavirus. No matter what politicians say, public health experts agree. Stay home, even if you feel fine.“

 

https://www.propublica.org/article/no-matter-what-some-public-officials-say-the-message-you-need-to-hear-is-stay-home/amp

Definitely a good message! But I was about to lose my mind reading the link, because I didn't realize how old it was (March 15). Please tell me NYC bars and restaurants are closed now. I am shocked that they weren't yet closed on the 15th... but until I saw the date, I thought my head might explode, lol.

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8 minutes ago, TracyP said:

Definitely a good message! But I was about to lose my mind reading the link, because I didn't realize how old it was (March 15). Please tell me NYC bars and restaurants are closed now. I am shocked that they weren't yet closed on the 15th... but until I saw the date, I thought my head might explode, lol.

 

Lol I’ll go make that clear in my post!

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9news Aus - Spain's death toll up by 757 amid data concerns

By Associated Press 

The Spanish coronavirus death toll has risen by another 757 fatalities over the past 24 hours and 6180 new infections have been confirmed, health authorities have said.

Both figures were slightly higher than yesterday's, when the first increase in five days was explained by a backlog of test results and fatalities that had gone unreported over the weekend.

But doubts about the statistics are being heard louder as fresh data starts to emerge.

Authorities have already acknowledged that a scarcity of testing kits and a bottleneck in the number of tests that laboratories can conduct on a daily basis are giving an underestimated contagion tally, which rose to 146,000 on Wednesday. 

Health Minister Salvador Illa said Tuesday that his department can only account for those who die and were tested. There have been few instances of post-mortem testing.

 

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10 hours ago, Arcadia said:

“Some doctors and nurses in the Bay Area said they have to watch what they wear when they are in public. NBC Bay Area has learned that the healthcare workers' scrubs are becoming a stigma.

This is also true where dd is. They have been instructed to wear their street clothes for their own protection. 

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10 minutes ago, square_25 said:

They've been closed for a very long time. They closed shortly after the 15th. 

 

😉 I am sure it seems like ages for people there! 😉

I am not sure though that just barely over 3 weeks is a “very long time” in terms of virus mitigation...    

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Maine schools just officially announced they will be closed for the remainder of the school year. It’s not a surprise, but still tough to hear. 😞 

Grades for 4th quarter are pass/fail. SATs will not be given. All Maine colleges and universities have waived SATs for admission for the current junior class, and it sounds like that will be the case all over the country. Idk how it might affect international admittance, but since UK cancelled their A Levels and France cancelled their equivalent, I assume future opportunities won’t be negatively impacted.

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https://abc7news.com/6086403/

“DALLAS -- Hundreds of Southwest Airlines employees have tested positive for COVID-19, the airline's union said Tuesday.

TWU Local 556, the union for Southwest Airlines flight attendants, told WFAA-TV in Dallas that at least 600 employees tested positive.

The company, however, denies that, and released the following statement:

"Currently, far less than 1% of more than 60,000 Southwest Airlines Employees have tested positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19).

The safety and well-being of Southwest's employees and customers is our uncompromising priority, and Southwest continues to implement measures to maintain our aircraft cabins, airport locations, and work centers to the highest standards, while following all CDC guidelines, during this unprecedented time."


This comes hours after American Airlines announced a number of its flight attendants also tested positive for COVID-19.”

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8 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Suifenhe, a small city in northeast China on the border with Russia, has been put on lockdown due to cases of coronavirus- bno

Chinese in Russia are going back to China in droves by three entry ways, Suifenhe being one of the three.  Also, it is rumored that Russia is kicking them out, but my friend in Guangzhou said the Chinese voluntarily return to China. I've seen videos of them taking huge long distance buses to the three entry points into China. 

Guangzhou originally planned to open up schools, but since there is now another outbreak, they are delaying the school opening now. 

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@mathnerd 

Fremont, Alameda County https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/east-bay/50k-masks-seized-in-fremont-warehouse-raid/2269345/
“State investigators raided three different locations in Alameda County Tuesday, seizing stockpiles of medical masks doctors and nurses desperately need during this coronavirus pandemic. 

About 20 California Department of Justice agents walked in and out of a warehouse just off Warm Spring Boulevard in Fremont seizing N95 masks that a man now under investigation, claims he was selling to nonprofits.

“They took my computers, cell phone, everything,” said the man, who chose to remain anonymous.

He said he started selling masks about a month ago, claiming to have a business license from Wyoming and a seller's permit from California.

He said agents confiscated 50,000 masks, including 1,000 N95s.

“I bought the mask for $3.60 each mask, and sold them for $2.50,” he said. “For some, I make profits for others I lose money.”

He claims he bought the masks on eBay before mask sellers were shut down.

The Attorney General’s office confirmed they executed search warrants at three locations in Alameda County seizing N95 respirators, surgical masks and other items, but didn’t offer other details.”

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15 hours ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Something to note: Americans aren't very healthy (https://www.cdc.gov/chronicdisease/resources/infographic/chronic-diseases.htm).  Looking at the summary from NYC, approximately .08% and .03% of the people in the 18-44 and 45-64, respectively, have no underlying conditions (that does not include the few with pending results).  How does that compare to other illnesses?  How many people in America usually die from lower respiratory infections/pneumonia/influenza every year ( https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/leading-causes-of-death.htm#publications) ? How often do people in those age ranges succumb to other viral or bacterial infections?  I have found that putting things into perspective during this time helps with not overreacting. 

Yikes. It’s the “well they were probably sick in some way anyway “ fallacy. Darwinism at its finest?  

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9 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/well/live/coronavirus-doctors-hospitals-emergency-care-heart-attack-stroke.html?auth=login-email&login=email
 

this is weird

hospitals are seeing a decline in heart attacks and strokes.  The most concerning explanation is people just not seeking care out of fear.  

But on the other hand, NYC ambulance calls for heart-related events have been turning out fatal at 10x the rate over a year ago (was 20-something a day last year, since the lockdown it's been about 200-something a day).  I had been thinking that maybe this was some other complication of the virus, but if there's a similar decline in hospital, it does stand to reason that people aren't going in until it's too late: 

 

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😞  Riverside county, California https://abc7news.com/health/covid-19-84-residents-evacuated-from-socal-nursing-home/6086909/

“RIVERSIDE, Calif. -- More than 80 patients were being evacuated from a nursing home in Riverside on Wednesday morning after employees of the facility "did not show up to care for sick patients two days in a row," health officials said in a statement.

The 84 patients will be moved from Magnolia Rehabilitation and Nursing Center, which has about 90 beds, to other health care locations throughout the county, the news release from the Riverside County Public Health Department said.

Riverside University Health System and Kaiser Permanente sent 33 licensed vocational nurses and registered nurses to care for the residents after only one of the facility's nursing assistants showed up to work, according to the statement.

There are 34 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus among the residents and five among employees, officials said.”

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1 minute ago, Terabith said:

I don't think it's overreacting to say that it's alarming that so many people under 60 are succumbing to this.  I'm 43.  Other than accidents and a couple of people with cancer (mostly children), I have not known anyone under 60 who died in my life.  I've known a few people who had cancer in middle age, but they've all beaten and lived with it.  Certainly, I know people DO die under 60, but I do not think that most Americans are so unhealthy that they're dying of viral or bacterial infections all the time.  I mean, folks my age, especially with younger kids, certainly get sick with strep throat or bronchitis or even pneumonia, but they get BETTER the vast majority of the time.

I think it is overreacting to say that around one percent of the total death rate being in healthy people under 65 is alarming, especially when we don't know how many cases there are total, both symptomatic and asymptomatic.  No healthy person you have known has died from an illness, but what about the rest of the population?  I'm 37 and know of one healthy child who got sick suddenly and died.  I know of a few healthy adults who have gotten sick and died. A person's little bubble does not make a complete data set. 

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4 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

I think it is overreacting to say that around one percent of the total death rate being in healthy people under 65 is alarming, especially when we don't know how many cases there are total, both symptomatic and asymptomatic.  No healthy person you have known has died from an illness, but what about the rest of the population?  I'm 37 and know of one healthy child who got sick suddenly and died.  I know of a few healthy adults who have gotten sick and died. A person's little bubble does not make a complete data set. 

It is amazing to me how different people's experiences can be.  When I went to college, I was amazed at how many people had never been to a funeral.  When I had a doctor asking about family medical history and if anyone had died younger than 65, I realized it was a much shorter list to start with who had lived to be 65.  

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15 hours ago, square_25 said:

Here's our friendly local NY perspective. I found it shattering: 

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1741938/

I've posted it before, but I think it bears repeating. 

Thank you for re-posting that.  I hadn't seen it yet.  You are in the middle of that, so it must be very real and all-encompassing for you.  Are all the numbers like that everywhere else in the world, though?  To take one data point and use it for all observations and then all future predictions isn't scientific.  NY has just over 6,000 deaths.  CA has just over 400.  Both have extremely large cities, both went on lockdown on the same day.  Is it not fair to say that NYC has some factors that are contributing to the rapid rise that aren't seen in most other parts of the world?

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2 hours ago, Bootsie said:

It is amazing to me how different people's experiences can be.  When I went to college, I was amazed at how many people had never been to a funeral.  When I had a doctor asking about family medical history and if anyone had died younger than 65, I realized it was a much shorter list to start with who had lived to be 65.  


I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, some communities are disproportionately  affected by ‘Preexisting’ conditions that make their deaths justifiable to too many people. That same apathy and lack of care about SYSTEMIC failures in health care access, medical treatment, social capital and stress has led to these increased numbers of ‘preexisting’ conditions in the first place. It’s shameful and so are the people who minimize their loss. These people are not disposable .

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1 hour ago, Jean in Newcastle said:
16 hours ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Something to note: Americans aren't very healthy (https://www.cdc.gov/chronicdisease/resources/infographic/chronic-diseases.htm).  Looking at the summary from NYC, approximately .08% and .03% of the people in the 18-44 and 45-64, respectively, have no underlying conditions (that does not include the few with pending results).  How does that compare to other illnesses?  How many people in America usually die from lower respiratory infections/pneumonia/influenza every year ( https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/leading-causes-of-death.htm#publications) ? How often do people in those age ranges succumb to other viral or bacterial infections?  I have found that putting things into perspective during this time helps with not overreacting. 

Yikes. It’s the “well they were probably sick in some way anyway “ fallacy. Darwinism at its finest?  

 

I have known of a couple of fairly young people irl who died of hospital acquired infections.  One was definitely not respiratory, the other started with a badly broken arm, and somehow surgery to set the bone led to infection, then death fairly quickly  in a relatively young and apparently healthy man (a dad at school when my son was in brick and mortar kindy). I had assumed the infection started in the arm and became systemic, but I don’t actually know.   

Hospital acquired infection turns out to be fairly common as in this news bulletin related to Oregon hospitals, but same is true elsewhere too. 

https://www.klcc.org/post/hospitals-arent-safe-you-might-think

 

(I have to say that even aside from CV19, I am kind of wigged out by scrubs being worn here and there. As far as I recall, my family members in medicine changed out into regular clothing  at hospital or at least removed an outer lab coat layer. ) 

 

That said, the deaths and extended illnesses from CV19 are extreme and unprecedented for my personal lifetime of experience—including time overseas with physician parents who were working with at risk populations where illnesses  like cholera and yellow fever were endemic. 

 

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45 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

😞  Riverside county, California https://abc7news.com/health/covid-19-84-residents-evacuated-from-socal-nursing-home/6086909/

“RIVERSIDE, Calif. -- More than 80 patients were being evacuated from a nursing home in Riverside on Wednesday morning after employees of the facility "did not show up to care for sick patients two days in a row," health officials said in a statement.

The 84 patients will be moved from Magnolia Rehabilitation and Nursing Center, which has about 90 beds, to other health care locations throughout the county, the news release from the Riverside County Public Health Department said.

Riverside University Health System and Kaiser Permanente sent 33 licensed vocational nurses and registered nurses to care for the residents after only one of the facility's nursing assistants showed up to work, according to the statement.

There are 34 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus among the residents and five among employees, officials said.”

That's hard to hear, but I'm doing math... five employees have confirmed cases... they are obviously not supposed to come to work... but, also, neither is anyone who had direct contact with them. In a care facility of 90 beds, what kind of staff numbers would it have? I think that "Stay home if you were anywhere near 'these five people' in the last two weeks."  is the right message, but I can also see why it would easily lead to almost the entire staff saying, "Yes, I'm supposed to stay home because I saw 'so-n-so' in an elevator last week."

The quotes seem to cast the staff as slackers who are choosing to stay home (of their own will) out of self-preservation while the elderly go without care. That's unlikely. I think probably they were nearly all plausibly-exposed to the confirmed cases, which means staying home is right, not wrong. And so is relocating the patients to where they can receive care.

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3 minutes ago, bolt. said:

 

The quotes seem to cast the staff as slackers who are choosing to stay home (of their own will) out of self-preservation while the elderly go without care. That's unlikely. I think probably they were nearly all plausibly-exposed to the confirmed cases, which means staying home is right, not wrong.

We have nurses strikes often enough that it isn’t unexpected but those usually have prior announcements. The news article however seems to suggest that the staff did not inform whoever in charge that they were going to self quarantine and not show up. 

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24 minutes ago, Sneezyone said:


I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, some communities are disproportionately  affected by ‘Preexisting’ conditions that make their deaths justifiable to too many people. That same apathy and lack of care about SYSTEMIC failures in health care access, medical treatment, social capital and stress that’s has led to these increased numbers of ‘preexisting’ conditions in the first place. It’s shameful. These people are not disposable and so are the people who minimize their loss.

One thing I hope happens as a result of this horrific situation is that people will finally understand the value of a national health care system. I see the Brits cheering their NHS, the prime minister praising the NHS... and I just really want to have that here, too. 

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Just now, Mainer said:

One thing I hope happens as a result of this horrific situation is that people will finally understand the value of a national health care system. I see the Brits cheering their NHS, the prime minister praising the NHS... and I just really want to have that here, too. 

I don't.  This is the same NHS which has wanted to do nothing and let the chips fall as they may because of a lack of resources.  But that is all I will say because of the "no politics" rule. 

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15 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

I don't know why the death of people with preexisting conditions is less alarming, or worthy of reaction, than the death of people without.  Can you help me understand where you're coming from? 

People with preexisting condition are always at greater risk for anything due to their decrease/compromised immune systems.  I am *not* saying that it isn't heartbreaking that these people are dying.  The high percentage of people with chronic diseases is absolutely alarming.

Where I'm coming from: I have a long family history, on both sides, of autoimmune diseases, a few specific cancers, diabetes, high blood pressure, and high cholesterol.  The medical system where I live (America) gives medication (or radiation/chemo/surgery for the cancers) for all of those diseases.  After decades, none of my grandparents have ever gotten off of any daily treatment.  They eat a typical American diet.  They go to several different doctors every month and pop whatever pills their doctors tell them to.  My parents started taking a different approach about ten years ago when my mom was diagnosed with cancer.  She already had an autoimmune disease and was a smoker with prediabetes.  Instead of following a path that most Americans take, she overhauled her lifestyle.  Within three months, her doctor was amazed at her results: autoimmune disease in remission, cancer not detected, no longer prediabetic, and overall health sharply increased. My dad got off of high blood pressure and thyroid medications.  They have stayed that way for the past ten years.  After seeing her results, my family started taking better care of ourselves.  My autoimmune disease, the same kind my mom had, went into remission.  If what science is uncovering about epigenetics is correct, hopefully my children will never express the genetic diseases .  We no longer need any prescriptions or OTC medications and we rarely get sick.  Immune systems are made to fight off anything attacking it. Fully functioning immune systems do this quite well.  I think of it like a car: If you drive a car and never take care of it, it's going to break down and not work properly.  If neglected for too long, something disastrous, like a tire flying off, will happen and then you get into an accident.  Who is to blame for the accident?

 

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Just now, hopeallgoeswell said:

People with preexisting condition are always at greater risk for anything due to their decrease/compromised immune systems.  I am *not* saying that it isn't heartbreaking that these people are dying.  The high percentage of people with chronic diseases is absolutely alarming.

Where I'm coming from: I have a long family history, on both sides, of autoimmune diseases, a few specific cancers, diabetes, high blood pressure, and high cholesterol.  The medical system where I live (America) gives medication (or radiation/chemo/surgery for the cancers) for all of those diseases.  After decades, none of my grandparents have ever gotten off of any daily treatment.  They eat a typical American diet.  They go to several different doctors every month and pop whatever pills their doctors tell them to.  My parents started taking a different approach about ten years ago when my mom was diagnosed with cancer.  She already had an autoimmune disease and was a smoker with prediabetes.  Instead of following a path that most Americans take, she overhauled her lifestyle.  Within three months, her doctor was amazed at her results: autoimmune disease in remission, cancer not detected, no longer prediabetic, and overall health sharply increased. My dad got off of high blood pressure and thyroid medications.  They have stayed that way for the past ten years.  After seeing her results, my family started taking better care of ourselves.  My autoimmune disease, the same kind my mom had, went into remission.  If what science is uncovering about epigenetics is correct, hopefully my children will never express the genetic diseases .  We no longer need any prescriptions or OTC medications and we rarely get sick.  Immune systems are made to fight off anything attacking it. Fully functioning immune systems do this quite well.  I think of it like a car: If you drive a car and never take care of it, it's going to break down and not work properly.  If neglected for too long, something disastrous, like a tire flying off, will happen and then you get into an accident.  Who is to blame for the accident?

 

Oh for Pete's sake.  Good for you.  But I eat an excellent diet (Paleo, gluten free, dairy free, lots of whole foods, plants heavy), I go to Naturopathic doctors and I have still had chronic pain and illness for 30 years.  This oversimplification is like a slap in the face. 

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9 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

People with preexisting condition are always at greater risk for anything due to their decrease/compromised immune systems.  I am *not* saying that it isn't heartbreaking that these people are dying.  The high percentage of people with chronic diseases is absolutely alarming.

Where I'm coming from: I have a long family history, on both sides, of autoimmune diseases, a few specific cancers, diabetes, high blood pressure, and high cholesterol.  The medical system where I live (America) gives medication (or radiation/chemo/surgery for the cancers) for all of those diseases.  After decades, none of my grandparents have ever gotten off of any daily treatment.  They eat a typical American diet.  They go to several different doctors every month and pop whatever pills their doctors tell them to.  My parents started taking a different approach about ten years ago when my mom was diagnosed with cancer.  She already had an autoimmune disease and was a smoker with prediabetes.  Instead of following a path that most Americans take, she overhauled her lifestyle.  Within three months, her doctor was amazed at her results: autoimmune disease in remission, cancer not detected, no longer prediabetic, and overall health sharply increased. My dad got off of high blood pressure and thyroid medications.  They have stayed that way for the past ten years.  After seeing her results, my family started taking better care of ourselves.  My autoimmune disease, the same kind my mom had, went into remission.  If what science is uncovering about epigenetics is correct, hopefully my children will never express the genetic diseases .  We no longer need any prescriptions or OTC medications and we rarely get sick.  Immune systems are made to fight off anything attacking it. Fully functioning immune systems do this quite well.  I think of it like a car: If you drive a car and never take care of it, it's going to break down and not work properly.  If neglected for too long, something disastrous, like a tire flying off, will happen and then you get into an accident.  Who is to blame for the accident?

 

I come from a long line of people who are overweight and have very unhealthy diets yet live well into their 90s with zero health issues. I think there is quite a bit more to it than you think.

I've chosen for my little family to eat better and exercise but I don't for one second think we're healthy just because of that because I just have to look at the rest of my family who is also doing just fine but choosing differently.

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9 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

People with preexisting condition are always at greater risk for anything due to their decrease/compromised immune systems.  I am *not* saying that it isn't heartbreaking that these people are dying.  The high percentage of people with chronic diseases is absolutely alarming.

Where I'm coming from: I have a long family history, on both sides, of autoimmune diseases, a few specific cancers, diabetes, high blood pressure, and high cholesterol.  The medical system where I live (America) gives medication (or radiation/chemo/surgery for the cancers) for all of those diseases.  After decades, none of my grandparents have ever gotten off of any daily treatment.  They eat a typical American diet.  They go to several different doctors every month and pop whatever pills their doctors tell them to.  My parents started taking a different approach about ten years ago when my mom was diagnosed with cancer.  She already had an autoimmune disease and was a smoker with prediabetes.  Instead of following a path that most Americans take, she overhauled her lifestyle.  Within three months, her doctor was amazed at her results: autoimmune disease in remission, cancer not detected, no longer prediabetic, and overall health sharply increased. My dad got off of high blood pressure and thyroid medications.  They have stayed that way for the past ten years.  After seeing her results, my family started taking better care of ourselves.  My autoimmune disease, the same kind my mom had, went into remission.  If what science is uncovering about epigenetics is correct, hopefully my children will never express the genetic diseases .  We no longer need any prescriptions or OTC medications and we rarely get sick.  Immune systems are made to fight off anything attacking it. Fully functioning immune systems do this quite well.  I think of it like a car: If you drive a car and never take care of it, it's going to break down and not work properly.  If neglected for too long, something disastrous, like a tire flying off, will happen and then you get into an accident.  Who is to blame for the accident?

 

Well...bless your heart.

Of course, lifestyle choices can and do play a part in overall health and the management of disease. You do realize,  I hope, that for many people, making the right choices (assuming they had the resources and information to make and act on those choices) does not guarantee a medication-free life. One can do everything "right" and still get cancer. Or autoimmune issues. And, heaven forbid, if someone's situation precludes having those right choices available to them.

One thing I've learned in my life is that it's easy to be confident about one's own circumstances and efforts until, suddenly, you no longer can. Yes, we need to pay attention to maintaining health. But getting ill does not equal having ignored what one should do.

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11 minutes ago, Mainer said:

I see the Brits cheering their NHS, the prime minister praising the NHS... and I just really want to have that here, too. 

thousands of American health care providers from all over the country are rushing in droves to NY city to lend a hand to the beleaguered doctors and nurses there, many have quit their current jobs to be in NY, many work without proper PPE - I think that this is one of the most unselfish and heroic acts I have seen so far in this crisis. So many states who themselves have infections are donating their ventilators to NYC so that they could get a handle on this crisis, for which I cheer for the states who are willing to stick their necks out for their fellowmen. There is a lot of good in this country and we could all cheer for them even if it is not an organized event on a nationally televised level. 

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2 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Oh for Pete's sake.  Good for you.  But I eat an excellent diet (Paleo, gluten free, dairy free, lots of whole foods, plants heavy), I go to Naturopathic doctors and I have still had chronic pain and illness for 30 years.  This oversimplification is like a slap in the face. 

I am sorry to hear that.  I definitely did not mean that to be a slap in the face.  I am a numbers and big-picture person who doesn't get caught up on outliers.  Yes, outliers are there, but not everything fits neatly into a box.  There have been numerous scientific studies that have been published, just since I've started digging into it ten years ago, showing how diet and lifestyle changes can not only help a person feel better, but make a person healthier.  Nothing works for an entire population, even modern medicine.  Best wishes on your journey.

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People who had asthma as children and haven't had issues in years/decades are being lumped in as preexisting conditions. There's a lot of generally healthy people who have had a condition that has never before put them in the at risk category who are getting really sick or dying. 

My only behavioral risk for my generally mild asthma is picking the wrong parents. Not a smoker, not overweight, never been around a significant amount of 2nd hand smoke, healthy, mostly plant based diet, no allergies, mostly lived outside of cities/high pollution areas...it's honestly offensive to suggest it's my fault. I guess my kids' who were premature have themselves to blame too. No, I didn't do anything wrong to cause them to be premature except to find myself pregnant with multiples. 

I don't think we are unusual and we are not at elevated risk for almost anything else. 

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15 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

People with preexisting condition are always at greater risk for anything due to their decrease/compromised immune systems.  I am *not* saying that it isn't heartbreaking that these people are dying.  The high percentage of people with chronic diseases is absolutely alarming.

Where I'm coming from: I have a long family history, on both sides, of autoimmune diseases, a few specific cancers, diabetes, high blood pressure, and high cholesterol.  The medical system where I live (America) gives medication (or radiation/chemo/surgery for the cancers) for all of those diseases.  After decades, none of my grandparents have ever gotten off of any daily treatment.  They eat a typical American diet.  They go to several different doctors every month and pop whatever pills their doctors tell them to.  My parents started taking a different approach about ten years ago when my mom was diagnosed with cancer.  She already had an autoimmune disease and was a smoker with prediabetes.  Instead of following a path that most Americans take, she overhauled her lifestyle.  Within three months, her doctor was amazed at her results: autoimmune disease in remission, cancer not detected, no longer prediabetic, and overall health sharply increased. My dad got off of high blood pressure and thyroid medications.  They have stayed that way for the past ten years.  After seeing her results, my family started taking better care of ourselves.  My autoimmune disease, the same kind my mom had, went into remission.  If what science is uncovering about epigenetics is correct, hopefully my children will never express the genetic diseases .  We no longer need any prescriptions or OTC medications and we rarely get sick.  Immune systems are made to fight off anything attacking it. Fully functioning immune systems do this quite well.  I think of it like a car: If you drive a car and never take care of it, it's going to break down and not work properly.  If neglected for too long, something disastrous, like a tire flying off, will happen and then you get into an accident.  Who is to blame for the accident?

 

 

I think there is a lot to say for what you wrote above. I am managing my own autoimmune situation primarily with foods, and secondarily with vitamins and supplements. 

At the same time, not everything is directly the fault of people who have problems. Sometimes someone else crashes their car into ours, for example, using your analogy.

Perhaps we live in a toxic area, perhaps we are exposed to high levels of a contagious illness...and could not reasonably avoid it.  

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Just now, mathnerd said:

thousands of American health care providers from all over the country are rushing in droves to NY city to lend a hand to the beleaguered doctors and nurses there, many have quit their current jobs to be in NY, many work without proper PPE - I think that this is one of the most unselfish and heroic acts I have seen so far in this crisis. So many states who themselves have infections are donating their ventilators to NYC so that they could get a handle on this crisis, for which I cheer for the states who are willing to stick their necks out for their fellowmen. There is a lot of good in this country and we could all cheer for them even if it is not an organized event on a nationally televised level. 

Of course - I wasn't saying that our doctors and nurses around the country aren't heroic. I am constantly blown away by the sacrifices our medical personnel are making for their fellow citizens. It's incredible. I was just expressing my opinion that I wish our country could have one medical system, to make coordination between hospitals easier, to make insurance less confusing for everyone, etc. I'm not extremely informed about the nitty gritty of other countries' universal health systems, but I feel like we could do so much better if things were more streamlined. And if everyone was just enrolled in health insurance because they... are citizens.

A close friend of mine just went through some major health crises. She had to deal with doctors from multiple specialties, coordinate sending records between offices, realizing a couple times that the medications prescribed to her by different doctors actually had serious side effects when put together... etc. I don't understand why my non-medical friend had to be the one doing that. It was so hard for her to do while being extremely sick. And that's with great insurance.

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7 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

thousands of American health care providers from all over the country are rushing in droves to NY city to lend a hand to the beleaguered doctors and nurses there, many have quit their current jobs to be in NY, many work without proper PPE - I think that this is one of the most unselfish and heroic acts I have seen so far in this crisis. So many states who themselves have infections are donating their ventilators to NYC so that they could get a handle on this crisis, for which I cheer for the states who are willing to stick their necks out for their fellowmen. There is a lot of good in this country and we could all cheer for them even if it is not an organized event on a nationally televised level. 

 

Nowadays we could probably somehow organize our own cheer for the heroes event and stitch together short film snips or still photos into a YouTube .   We probably have a bunch of people in various places right on this thread. 

I think it would be wonderful!!!

 

I don’t have the skills, but I bet someone has a tech oriented kid who does!   @dmmetler ‘s daughter maybe ? I can’t recall who else has very tech savvy teens or young adults. 

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PM announced yesterday on her daily press conference that NZ will be doing batch testing to identify community spread.  Apparently, you can swab 50 people and run them all together in the lab, then only individually test those 50 people if the group result is positive.  This is an efficient way to use lab resources when the percent of the population that is infected is so low. We are capable of doing 6000 tests per day, so with 50 people batches, the limiting factor would be how many swabs we have, which is currently 100K in the country with 250K on the way. This is such an obvious approach, but I hadn't thought of it. 🙂

 

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I'm registered with the US embassy, so they are currently sending me daily updates as to travel. NZ borders are closed to foreigners, but the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are making transit agreements with many countries so that kiwis can get home. You let my people transit, and I'll let yours. So apparently now Americans stuck in the Pacific Islands can get home using NZ for transit.  I was pretty horrified by the unaccompanied minors statement at the bottom.  I hadn't considered that possibility.

U.S Consulate General Auckland

Traveling Through New Zealand Updates 

 After announcing yesterday, 7 April, that transit through New Zealand will be permitted for foreigners in the Pacific Island countries, the government of New Zealand issued additional guidance to consider as you prepare to travel. 

 Transit Visas Not Required 

 If you are transiting through New Zealand from a Pacific Island country en route to your final destination, you will not need a transit visa or NZeTA approval so long as you meet the other required conditions, which are that you: 

  • remain airside and cannot enter New Zealand; 
  • have a maximum 10-hour window to depart on your onward flight; 
  • have no COVID-19 symptoms, especially no fever (a temperature check may be undertaken); 
  • have had no close contact with a suspected or confirmed COVID-19 case; 
  • are not be awaiting a COVID-19 test result; 
  • have confirmation from your airline that you will be permitted to board for the entire journey; 
  • have confirmation prior to boarding that your destination country will permit arrival (note: this is not a problem if you are a U.S. citizen going directly back to the United States with no stopovers/layovers); and 
  • confirmed and ticketed flights for the full journey. 

No exceptions to these rules will be considered, such as lay-overs over 10 hours in length or requiring an overnight-stay or longer. If you are in this position, please e-mail AucklandACS@state.gov with your name, flight information, current location, and contact details. 

 Unaccompanied Minor Travel 

The Ministry of Education has been working with other New Zealand agencies, schools and education agents to provide guidance on how international students, and in particular those under 18, might access commercial or repatriation flights home. 

Edited by lewelma
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2 hours ago, Matryoshka said:

But on the other hand, NYC ambulance calls for heart-related events have been turning out fatal at 10x the rate over a year ago (was 20-something a day last year, since the lockdown it's been about 200-something a day).  I had been thinking that maybe this was some other complication of the virus, but if there's a similar decline in hospital, it does stand to reason that people aren't going in until it's too late: 

 

I just read an article--and now don't know where it was 😞 --that doctors are seeing heart failure a lot, and are trying to figure out how the virus is related; i.e., they think someone is having a heart attack and has blocked arteries, only to take them in and there are no blockages and a positive covid test. They are currently sharing information to try to figure out if the virus is directly attacking the heart or ?? (I was quickly scanning, and I'm not sure I caught all that correctly, but I found it a sad but interesting twist.)

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9 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I’ve heard of someone in the US (?) doing this, but I don’t remember where. It’s an excellent (and well-known) technique that works well when the rates are low.

It looks like we peaked 3 days ago, but they obviously want to collect more data.  The exit date for minimum lockdown is still 2 weeks away, and we are now at 50 cases per day out of 4.8 million people (we peaked at 89). 

In sad news, 2 of our nursing homes have cases, so it will be interesting to see how many more ICU cases we get.  Currently there have been a total of 8 in ICU over the last 2 weeks (3 have gotten better, 1 died, and 4 still in ICU). This is very low percentage for the 1200 cases identified, which as we discussed before, is likely due to locking down our elderly early and having >50% of cases due to overseas travel so younger people. Now that it has hit 2 nursing homes (each care for 50 people, but only 6 and 16 are currently testing positive), these ICU numbers will likely go up.  They have moved half of the residents out of the nursing homes to be cared for elsewhere, and have put infectious disease experts on location to make sure that everything possible is being done.  We will see. Crossing fingers.

ETA: these two nursing homes were identified with contact tracing before anyone was sick, so they caught them very early.

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