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About TracyP

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    Hive Mind Queen Bee

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  1. I do use this to make personal decisions. I go to the store with very little concern and I have been getting together with family members. One gathering was held completely outside to protect a potentially high risk individual. In my case, my county has had .06% of the county test positive, so the percent of current active cases is very small. I don't know where my line would be, but it is a number I will be watching to judge what my family will or won't feel comfortable doing.
  2. Huh, that is hard to wrap my head around. I dug into this a bit deeper because it feels too optimistic. And well I think it probably is too optimistic... This is a possibly legit IFR if you could protect those over 75 (give or take 5 years). This article does a good job explaining the difference we are seeing in IFRs in different locations. And once again highlights the need to protect this segment of our population.
  3. A study out of Germany showed the same thing. This is reassuring. I have heard a couple infectious disease experts saying the same thing all along. This is a respiratory illness, so we'd expect it to spread like every other respiratory illness - spread by droplets and aerosol making distancing, masking, and hand washing important (in that order). Washing down of surfaces, not so much. I think this is actually very important as we go forward. It means, for example, that perhaps Walmart should open back up to 24 hrs. Instead of the intensive cleaning protocol, encourage shoppers to use quiet hours to spread the shoppers out more. Churches have to face the fact that it doesn't matter how well you clean between services. Putting that many people in one building is incredibly high risk, no amount of hand sanitizer will change that.
  4. It looks like my local school will be business as usual. They just had a board meeting and came out with next year's schedule. The only significant change is that they are prepared for e-learning days. If the district needs to shut down they have a plan to turn immediately to e-learning whether it be for a day (weather related) or longer term. This is a rural town with a population of 800. Fwiw.
  5. Thank you! I'm about to lose my mind over how many people are not understanding this!!
  6. Ugh, this virus just sucks. I am glad to see that they are learning more about how it is attacking people. Hopefully that leads to better treatments. The pediatric aspect is troubling (assuming it is Covid related) these kids barely showed symptoms so it isn't like a different treatment would help. 🙁 I feel slightly better reading that it sounds extremely rare. Still, very troubling tho. From the link: The condition is much rare than severe COVID, and it is thought that children who develop it may have unusual genetic vulnerabilities. "Only a very small number of kids who get COVID exposure will get this," Dr Giwani says. "We do not have a good handle on what the number is but it's pretty clear it is extremely rare."
  7. Haha, I'm not sure either. 🙂 I think maybe that is because you are saying what *you* think would be a good outcome. I am saying what I think is happening. Most of what I have been saying leaves my opinion out of it. I do not think government leaders are aiming for much lower cases. Some are being blunt about this, some are beating around the bush. If actions speak louder than words, I would say that the government has decided that reopening is worth the cost. I'm not addressing whether or not I agree, but only pointing out what I see. I think maybe we agree overall but are looking at it through different lenses.
  8. And I think that is the goal - don't let hospitals get overrun. Test/trace will hopefully be enough to stop any huge outbreaks. Even without complete compliance, if a county/city is seeing a sharp rise in cases behavior will change. Decent testing and even half assed contact tracing should be enough to identify these areas before they get out of hand. But I think the article you linked is a perfect example of the confusion out there. The headline says that we won't end Covid with test/trace. Right. Not here. Not in South Korea. I have never thought the goal of test/trace was to end covid, but I think a segment of the population has gotten that idea.
  9. Thanks for the info on South Korea. That is great to hear! Interesting that they tested anonymously because people there were not wanting to participate. (Worry inside the LGBTQ community in this case.) Maybe that is something that would get more people on board here? I don't think those other countries have opened yet, have they? I am 100% behind the test and trace plan. I'm just not convinced it is enough to keep the cases on a downward trend. I would love to be wrong, though!
  10. While I think the very first cases could have been here as early as December, I have a hard time believing it was widespread at that point or even in January. Just to play devil's advocate, though... I'm not sure we would have noticed it if it spread primarily through a young population. From the CDC: For children (0-17 years), COVID-19 hospitalization rates are much lower than influenza hospitalization rates at comparable time points* during recent influenza seasons. I don't know what hospitalization numbers look like for 18-23 year olds, but I'm guessing Covid could go fairly unnoticed in that population. Of course, what are the odds that it stays with the student body and doesn't get spread in the community? Probably very unlikely. But I guess maybe not impossible? I don't know.
  11. I'm glad to see this. I couldn't tell if it was all for show or if some people actually thought that spraying the outside of buildings and streets would stop the spread. 🙄 Regardless I hope this brings the practice to an end or at least keeps it from happening in my area...
  12. I am totally on board with the idea that this was here as early as December. But, I'm not really sure you can go by symptoms. My mom and stepdad were "sicker than ever" with something in Feb. Antibody testing was negative, though of course it could be an inaccurate test... I know a family of 5 who all tested positive. The mom was quite sick but only for 5-6 days (body aches and fever were her worst symptoms) and the other 4 had mild symptoms. A lot of people who test positive have no symptoms or very mild symptoms. So if everybody in your house was the "sickest they've ever been" that almost seems like an argument *against* it being COVID, especially if some of those family members are under 40.
  13. In my state this is definitely still the plan. And I think it is a good plan, but whether or not it has been successful elsewhere depends how you define success. South Korea is shutting back down after being open for like 2 weeks, I think. I don't think "open up" and "flatten the curve" can ever go hand in hand. You can open up and hopefully with contact tracing you can keep things under control, as in not overwhelm the system. (This seems to be the current plan as far as I can tell.) But if your goal is truly a drop in cases or a literal flattening of cases, then I don't think you can open up. I do think some people think that there will be a downward trend even with the country opening up, and I hope they're right! But while I think testing is crucial to spotting outbreaks, I don't think it is enough to literally flatten the curve. South Korea is facing this now.
  14. Ok, I think maybe I'm understanding your question better. Or maybe not, lol. Let me see... There is a contradiction, right? We are going to "flatten the curve" is the message we keep hearing. Yet with reopening is there actually any chance that case numbers don't rise? I mean, how can they not - more people mingling = more opportunity for transmission. Nobody wants to own it but it seems we are all following Sweden's playbook at the end of the day. Is that kind of where you are going with your question? How can people say we are going to flatten the curve or even see a drop in cases? It seems illogical. If that's at the root of your question, I think you are right on. I don't know that a lot of people have come to terms with what we are doing. (And I'll note that much of Europe is doing the same. This isn't just the U.S. I'll also say that I don't think we have a choice between lack of compliance and the fear of longterm economic consequences.) A lot of people are walking around saying " yay, we flattened the curve so we can open up now." Except they don't seem to understand that opening up will mean more cases, more hospitalizations, and more deaths. In reality, what we are doing is opening slowly to see how far we can push the envelope. I think most places expect a rise in cases, but they hope that by monitoring it closely they can find a sweet spot where we learn to live with this virus. This comes at a price though. This price is going to likely be higher in more densely populated areas, but none of us are completely insulated from it. I don't know that the average person is understanding that, so that is the disconnect you are seeing. Ack, I could say a lot more but I'm not even positive I'm addressing your question. I may just be going off on my own tangent.... 🙂
  15. This is Minnesota. We are averaging about 25 deaths a day tho the last few days have been down. New cases are running around 600-800 per day. Testing is available if you are symptomatic or asymptomatic and had contact with known case.
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