wuhan - coronavirus

[Terabith]

In all honesty, can anyone tell me how Jared came to be in charge of the pandemic (as well as peace in the mideast and the opioid crisis)?  What happened to Pence?  

[Renai]

9 minutes ago, Terabith said:

In all honesty, can anyone tell me how Jared came to be in charge of the pandemic (as well as peace in the mideast and the opioid crisis)?  What happened to Pence?  

I hadn't kept up in a couple of days and didn't even know a Jared. I had to google. Maybe he got the position because he's Trump's son-in-law...

[matrips]

35 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Neither of those things is true — it was always intended to help "regular citizens," and it was designed for the initial stage of a public health emergency, not to kick in after 6-8 weeks. Dr. Tara O'Toole, who was chair of an advisory committee on the stockpile for the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, said the national stockpile "was intended to bridge from the moment of crisis until a little while after when the private sector would be able to gear up and use the whole global supply chain to deliver what was needed.”

After weeks of criticism from multiple states about the lack of resources, the President explicitly said that he will not take calls from governors who criticize him and do not show appropriate appreciation. He specifically singled out the governors of Washington and Michigan, and said he had told Pence not to call them, but Pence did anyway. Suddenly we have new, unelected, totally unqualified pandemic response coordinator, who announces: “The notion of the federal stockpile was it’s supposed to be our stockpile. It’s not supposed to be states’ stockpiles that they then use.” Who exactly does that "our" refer to, if not the people? The public, whose tax dollars paid for the stockpile, have no rights to it? Now, for the first time in history, the national stockpile belongs to the administration, who can distribute it however they choose (i.e. to the states whose governors express sufficient appreciation and avoid criticizing the president)?

This is what the SNS website said until 2 days ago:

"Strategic National Stockpile is the nation’s largest supply of life-saving pharmaceuticals and medical supplies for use in a public health emergency severe enough to cause local supplies to run out.  When state, local, tribal, and territorial responders request federal assistance to support their response efforts, the stockpile ensures that the right medicines and supplies get to those who need them most during an emergency. Organized for scalable response to a variety of public health threats, this repository contains enough supplies to respond to multiple large-scale emergencies simultaneously."

After Jared Kushner attempted to redefine the purpose and ownership of the stockpile,  the wording on the website was hastily changed to say it is just a "supplement" and that states have their own stockpiles. Even with that sudden redefinition of the mission, which Kushner does not seem to have cleared with anyone else, there is nothing on the website that suggests it is not intended for public use, or is only available after 6-8 weeks:

"The Strategic National Stockpile's role is to supplement state and local supplies during public health emergencies. Many states have products stockpiled, as well. The supplies, medicines, and devices for life-saving care contained in the stockpile can be used as a short-term stopgap buffer when the immediate supply of adequate amounts of these materials may not be immediately available."

Here is a ink to the current text, which was changed by Kusher on April 2nd: https://www.phe.gov/about/sns/Pages/default.aspx

Here is the text as it appeared before Kushner changed it: https://web.archive.org/web/20200402234018/https://www.phe.gov/about/sns/Pages/default.aspx

 

 

 

I was taking my information from multiple cdc/hhs pandemic guidelines published over the past 15 years for companies and state and local governments.  None of them was written before 2018 that I read.  They have a different take on it and specify the first priority of the stockpile is allocating resources to those most in need to keep the country running- healthcare workers, government, law enforcement etc. 

[chiguirre]

23 minutes ago, matrips said:

I was taking my information from multiple cdc/hhs pandemic guidelines published over the past 15 years for companies and state and local governments.  None of them was written before 2018 that I read.  They have a different take on it and specify the first priority of the stockpile is allocating resources to those most in need to keep the country running- healthcare workers, government, law enforcement etc. 

Healthcare workers generally work for private companies, non-profits or local government depending on the particular hospital. A very small percentage work for the VA or in the military. Law enforcement that has direct contact with the general public is almost completely employed by local or state government. The PPE that governors are requesting will go to healthcare workers and LEOs who are mostly not directly employed by their states. 

Federal workers don't provide much front line healthcare and public safety.

[Corraleno]

36 minutes ago, Terabith said:

In all honesty, can anyone tell me how Jared came to be in charge of the pandemic (as well as peace in the mideast and the opioid crisis)?  What happened to Pence?  

Pence was returning calls from governors who were being critical of his boss. Actually, there have been reports for a while now that Jared has been closely involved from the very beginning and that one reason Trump has been so slow to respond to developments was that he has been relying on Jared to "do research" and report back to him. In fact, right before Trump finally declared a national emergency, there were posts on a forum for medical professionals in which someone asked for suggestions about how the government should best respond, with the OP saying that he would be able to get the information directly into the White House. After various people posted responses, the OP thanked everyone and said Jared was reading their suggestions. Why listen to experts whose entire careers have been devoted to epidemiology and public health when you can get advice from your real estate developer son-in-law whose sole qualification for the job is that he knows how to google?

[Corraleno]

1 hour ago, matrips said:

I was taking my information from multiple cdc/hhs pandemic guidelines published over the past 15 years for companies and state and local governments.  None of them was written before 2018 that I read.  They have a different take on it and specify the first priority of the stockpile is allocating resources to those most in need to keep the country running- healthcare workers, government, law enforcement etc. 

Obviously medical equipment and supplies go to the healthcare workers and first responders who treat the public, not directly to members of the public. Equally obvious is the fact that the federal government is not sending emergency supplies to individual hospitals, EMTs, and police depts. — all requests for federal aid must go through the governor's office of each state, and then the state emergency management team coordinates the distribution. So Jared Kushner's unilateral declaration that the Strategic National Stockpile was never intended for the states' use is completely false, and was designed to deflect criticism about the slow and disorganized federal response by claiming "that's not our job." Yeah it is their job, and always has been. 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Corraleno

[Ausmumof3]

Bno: Over the past 24 hours, the U.S. reported 33,557 new cases of coronavirus and 1,410 new deaths, raising total to 311,178 cases and 8,802 dead

[vonfirmath]

10 hours ago, Math teacher said:

It's surprising to me how different communities are so varied in their mask use. Yesterday, Dh and I went to Super 1 and probably 1/3 of the customers wore a mask. Today, I went to a store about 35 miles away, and I thought I was the only one with a mask until I saw one more person in the check out with one on. 

Come on people, get with the program.

 

I ordered masks on Tuesday. They aren't here yet. I have been unable to find any locally

 

(I actually SAW disposable masks Friday March 13 and did NOT buy them because I was leaving them for people who needed them more. Did I wish I'd picked them up today? yes) I tried using a scarf as a mask today but it  didn't work so well. Even though at home I was able to walk around in it for 20 minutes without slipping, it didn't last that long in the store and when I realized how much I was putting my hands near my face to make it stay up -- I ended up going without.

 

[lewelma]

42 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

it didn't last that long in the store and when I realized how much I was putting my hands near my face to make it stay up -- I ended up going without.

This is exactly why NZ is not recommending face masks. Because they are uncomfortable, you touch your face more. 

[Corraleno]

So after insisting that states are responsible for finding their own PPE, and now Jared claiming that the national stockpile was never intended for states to use, the Feds are not only outbidding states for the PPE healthcare providers desperately need, they are just outright seizing shipments placed by state and local governments on the day of delivery:

Feds Take All Of County’s 35,000 Mask Order Targeted For Health Care Workers

 

 

[Carrie12345]

5 hours ago, matrips said:

I was taking my information from multiple cdc/hhs pandemic guidelines published over the past 15 years for companies and state and local governments.  None of them was written before 2018 that I read.  They have a different take on it and specify the first priority of the stockpile is allocating resources to those most in need to keep the country running- healthcare workers, government, law enforcement etc. 

If you were to go to FEMA’s independent study site, you could Find many courses on how emergency response is supposed to work, with at least one specific to pandemic, but ALL USemergency planning is meant to be done the same way.

• Individual persons having emergency plans and supplies for themselves, and others if possible
• Individual organizations/companies having emergency plans and supplies and being prepared to help persons/orgs/companies/gov’t.
• Local governments having emergency plans and supplies for the individuals/orgs/etc. in their jurisdiction and to provide mutual aid to other jurisdictions
• County governments having emergency plans and supplies for their local governments and to provide mutual aid to other counties
• State governments having emergency plan and supplies for their counties and to provide mutual aid to other states
• Federal government having emergency plans and supplies for the federal level and to provide aid to the states and territories 

The scale in this case is larger than the vast majority of scenarios, which of course makes it much more complicated and resources more scarce.  But it doesn’t change the role each level is supposed to play. And each level that doesn’t fulfill their role messes up the rest.

[Pen]

9 hours ago, Katy said:

 

This is what a cytokine storm looks like.  He probably rarely sees rheumatology phenomenon in acute illness like this.

 

His main point seemed to be that he thinks patients need oxygen, but not at the high pressure the ventilators are set for. I think as I understood it, having now listened to another of his messages also, that he thinks the ventilators need to be reprogrammed to operate with lower pressure.  ? 

Do you think high pressure ventilation is still the correct strategy? 

As GM and Ford have converted to ventilator production for CV19 crisis, it seems relevant to know if the ventilators being produced for CV19 are correct the correct strategy for CV19. 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

Masks for biking etc

might a plastic face guard like a stiff report cover be attached to a bike helmet so as to reduce direct contact with airborne material whether dust, debris or also virus, while not obstructing breathing? 

[Matryoshka]

3 hours ago, Corraleno said:

So after insisting that states are responsible for finding their own PPE, and now Jared claiming that the national stockpile was never intended for states to use, the Feds are not only outbidding states for the PPE healthcare providers desperately need, they are just outright seizing shipments placed by state and local governments on the day of delivery:

Feds Take All Of County’s 35,000 Mask Order Targeted For Health Care Workers

Yep. This is why I wasn't surprised we'd steal shipments from foreign govts; we were already stealing them from our own people. How many masks does Jared need, and where *are* they going???

[TracyP]

Is anybody able to read this? It is in Italian and behind a paywall, so not happening for me.... It estimates Italy's actual number of covid cases to be 5 million. Or even twice that counting asymptomatic cases.

https://rep.repubblica.it/pwa/locali/2020/04/03/news/milano_la_ricerca_dell_universita_statale_i_contagi_reali_in_italia_potrebbero_essere_5_milioni_-253027121/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I253056306-C12-P3-S5.4-T1

[Bambam]

I saw this early today - https://www.breitbart.com/border/2020/04/04/common-anti-parasite-drug-may-kill-coronavirus-in-under-48-hours-say-researchers/

 

N/M I see someone started a new thread on it. 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Bambam

[73349]

12 hours ago, lewelma said:

so why not more rah rah news on this?

A million tests could be used by New York City alone (population 8 million). This country has over 320 million people. And medical workers should be tested more than once.

[regentrude]

10 hours ago, Terabith said:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/nations-without-bcg-vaccination-saw-higher-cases/articleshow/74956201.cms?utm_source=facebook_pwa&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialsharebuttons&fbclid=IwAR0jfVRK8m5tcqB6l8FFYKpAQ2Fh9cyfmZk5t2LfQLPE-9aRFU5OxppdfNs&from=mdr

More and more stuff is coming out about the benefits of the BCG vaccination.  I would really like to see public health gear up to produce vaccine and vaccinate folks in the US.  

That is interesting. Raises the question about the age of patients in countries that have discontinued the vaccine because the disease is no longer prevalent. In my home country, older people have the vaccine, but it has not been recommended anymore since 1998 and is not available. So, wouldn't that mean older people fare better and younger people are harder hit? Or does it just barely mitigate the higher risk of older patients?

[teachermom2834]

I have been watching the IHME projections that the task force seemed to be using. I was looking for the update that was supposed to come yesterday but never did. Unless I am just looking in the wrong place for it. 

I liked the tool but it was way off for my state and I was anxious to see updated projections. 

[Pen]

Are Avigan and Favipiravir  two names for one thing ?  

Or two different perhaps promising treatments? 

 

[Arcadia]

12 minutes ago, Pen said:

Are Avigan and Favipiravir  two names for one thing ?  

Or two different perhaps promising treatments? 

Same thing 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078369/china-and-south-korea-split-over-japanese-anti-flu-drug-avigan

“Japan’s neighbours are divided over use of the controversial anti-flu drug ‘Avigan’ in their countries; with China welcoming the trial use, while South Korea has declined, saying “serious side effects” potentially cause fetal damage.

The Trump administration and US expert groups are also at odds over using the unproven drug, joining the latest international debate.

The antiviral drug, also known as favipiravir and developed by Japanese company Fujifilm Toyama Chemical Company, has emerged as a potential drug to treat patients infected with the deadly coronavirus, Sars-CoV-2, for which there is currently no cure.

Favipiravir is widely known as a treatment effective on a wide range of viruses – including coronavirus, arenavirus, bunyavirus and filovirus – by selectively inhibiting viruses and preventing replication.”

Edited April 5, 2020 by Arcadia

[Terabith]

40 minutes ago, regentrude said:

That is interesting. Raises the question about the age of patients in countries that have discontinued the vaccine because the disease is no longer prevalent. In my home country, older people have the vaccine, but it has not been recommended anymore since 1998 and is not available. So, wouldn't that mean older people fare better and younger people are harder hit? Or does it just barely mitigate the higher risk of older patients?

I THINK but am not sure that it seems to be most effective at mitigation when it was given within a couple decades.  But that's hard to tease out what protective effects are due to age and which are due to BCG vaccination.  It may explain why more kids and teens have had serious illness in the US and Europe than in Asian countries.  

My husband had it in the military, about 15 years ago, as part of deployment preparations.  I'm sending messages to my GP and my children's pediatrician asking if this is available or advisable for us.

[Pen]

30 minutes ago, regentrude said:

 

10 hours ago, Terabith said:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/nations-without-bcg-vaccination-saw-higher-cases/articleshow/74956201.cms?utm_source=facebook_pwa&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialsharebuttons&fbclid=IwAR0jfVRK8m5tcqB6l8FFYKpAQ2Fh9cyfmZk5t2LfQLPE-9aRFU5OxppdfNs&from=mdr

More and more stuff is coming out about the benefits of the BCG vaccination.  I would really like to see public health gear up to produce vaccine and vaccinate folks in the US

 

 

I very much hope BCG vaccination ends up helping in the trials in Australia and India.

However, I think what looks promising may only be correlation not causation.  I used to be gung ho about BCG when I was involved with a research project about it long ago.  But really promising looking and exciting, turned out to very disappointingly be apparently only a correlation, not causation, not a useful  prophylactic treatment with what I had been minimally involved with as a research project as a student.  And this situation may be similar. 

 

 

[Terabith]

1 minute ago, Pen said:

 

I very much hope BCG vaccination ends up helping in the trials in Australia and India.

However, I think what looks promising may only be correlation not causation.  I used to be gung ho about BCG when I was involved with a research project about it long ago.  But really promising looking and exciting, turned out to very disappointingly be apparently only a correlation, not causation, not a useful  prophylactic treatment with what I had been minimally involved with as a research project as a student.  And this situation may be similar. 

 

 

Yeah, I wouldn't think it would be a miracle treatment or preventative or anything.  I just thought might be a mitigating factor, and since it already exists, has been studied, and has relatively few side effects and is a known actor, if it had the possibility to help and was unlikely to hurt....

[Ausmumof3]

53 minutes ago, regentrude said:

That is interesting. Raises the question about the age of patients in countries that have discontinued the vaccine because the disease is no longer prevalent. In my home country, older people have the vaccine, but it has not been recommended anymore since 1998 and is not available. So, wouldn't that mean older people fare better and younger people are harder hit? Or does it just barely mitigate the higher risk of older patients?

Does the vaccine have long lasting efficacy or does it wane over time like whooping cough etc?

[Pen]

@Terabith

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2792660/

 

Don’t be too disappointed if your doctor says no to BCG. If it were super effective I would not expect Ecuador to be having such a severe CV19 outbreak. 

.” In Ecuador, a child cannot receive their birth certificate without having the BCG vaccine in their medical record “. Wikipedia 

[Pen]

5 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Does the vaccine have long lasting efficacy or does it wane over time like whooping cough etc?

 

It wanes.  

Also if you read the article I linked, some studies show (approx)  0% effective against TB and others 80% 

[Arcadia]

2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Does the vaccine have long lasting efficacy or does it wane over time like whooping cough etc?

It wanes but my TB test still shows mild positive a few years ago and my booster shot was in primary 6. My husband’s TB test no longer shows positive but I forgot if he has the booster shot. DS15 had the BCG jab as a newborn in Asia and his was slightly positive the last time he had a TB test. 

The BCG jab is stated in DS15’s California’s immunization card so the doctors won’t surprised by the mild positive TB test results.

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, TracyP said:

Is anybody able to read this? It is in Italian and behind a paywall, so not happening for me.... It estimates Italy's actual number of covid cases to be 5 million. Or even twice that counting asymptomatic cases.

https://rep.repubblica.it/pwa/locali/2020/04/03/news/milano_la_ricerca_dell_universita_statale_i_contagi_reali_in_italia_potrebbero_essere_5_milioni_-253027121/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I253056306-C12-P3-S5.4-T1

I can’t get behind the paywall but found another article on the same thing and ran it through google translate.  

“Covid, one million Lombards infected "Cases perhaps 100 times more than registered"
by Marta Bravi
Covid, one million Lombards infected "Cases perhaps 100 times more than registered"
April 3, 2020 - 6:00 am
Researchers: "Official data take into account only serious diagnoses"

A million cases in Lombardy, out of ten million inhabitants, this could be the order of magnitude of the epidemic in our region, out of a total of 5 million Italians infected. "The cases of Covid-19 in Lombardy, and in Italy in general, are at least 10, but probably 100 times higher" than those of the official bulletins that "refer mainly to severe patients who came to the attention of hospitals". These are the results of a Doxa investigation coordinated by the group of Carlo La Vecchia and Eva Negri, the epidemiologists of the State University which estimates "the undeclared" of the coronavirus epidemic on the national territory between 27 and 30 March.

According to official data, at the end of March there were 105,792 cases and 12,442 deaths on a national scale, and 43,208 cases and 7,199 deaths at the regional level. The real figures are however uncertain: the cases recorded in Italy essentially include hospital admissions, plus a limited number of positive subjects for swabs performed in a non-systematic way. To estimate the number of possible cases, a series of questions about Covid-19 related symptoms (such as fever, headache, cold, cough, gastrointestinal complaints) were included. The survey is based on a sample of 1,000 individuals, representative of the general Italian population between 18 and 85 years in terms of sex, age, geographical area and socio-economic conditions. Of these, 169 were residents of Lombardy. The data, collected using the CAWI method (computer assisted web interviews), refer to questions asked to citizens regarding their conditions in the three weeks preceding the survey.

It therefore seems that in the last three weeks 18.3 percent of Lombards have reported Covid-19-type symptoms, while 3 percent have experienced fever above 38.5 degrees, significantly higher percentages than the rest of the country. In Italy 14.4 per cent of subjects reported symptoms and 1.5 per cent high fever. The most affected subjects? Women, young people, smokers and people with higher education.

Part of the symptoms described, however, is unrelated to Covid-19. Although the seasonal flu period ended by March 7, some of the reported symptoms could be related to other non-specific (viral) conditions, experts explain. It is possible, however, that most of the symptoms and the majority of fever episodes above 38.5 degrees in March are due to the virus. Even assuming that only half of the reported symptoms are attributable to Covid-19, about 10 percent of the Lombard population and 8 percent of the population in Italy would have been infected in the three weeks prior to data collection. The count in absolute numbers is quickly done, although the figure can be doubled assuming that most of the symptoms similar to those of Covid-19 are actually related to the pathology.

The data therefore indicate that even ignoring the asymptomatic cases, the Covid-19 epidemic affected a portion of the population certainly higher by an order of magnitude, and perhaps even two, than the recorded cases. "We come to estimate that in Italy there may be 5, 10 or even 20 million infected if the asymptomatics were very numerous - explains La Vecchia -. The not encouraging aspect is that in all the estimates made we are still far from achieving natural immunity "and that" it will still take time to arrive at zero cases ".

 

 

[Wheres Toto]

5 hours ago, Corraleno said:

So after insisting that states are responsible for finding their own PPE, and now Jared claiming that the national stockpile was never intended for states to use, the Feds are not only outbidding states for the PPE healthcare providers desperately need, they are just outright seizing shipments placed by state and local governments on the day of delivery:

Feds Take All Of County’s 35,000 Mask Order Targeted For Health Care Workers

 

 

Anyone else think they are being black market sold to the highest bidder?

[Matryoshka]

2 minutes ago, Where's Toto? said:

Anyone else think they are being black market sold to the highest bidder?

I'm also wondering if the 'middleman' FEMA is using to distribute supplies to the states is giving some kind of kick-back to Jared & co...

[Ausmumof3]

Just now, square_25 said:

I continue to feel jealous of your leadership. I have no idea why we didn't start stockpiling in January and February... 

To be fair it’s easier to obtain enough tests or masks or anything else for a population of 25,000,000 like Aus or whatever nz has than the US population.  Not that I disagree with you.  I was just thinking about it when there were comparisons made between the Aus rate of testing to US earlier today

[Arcadia]

1 minute ago, Ausmumof3 said:

To be fair it’s easier to obtain enough tests or masks or anything else for a population of 25,000,000 like Aus or whatever nz has than the US population.  

Singapore is finally giving out reusable masks for shelter in place, one per person. It leads people to think that the government has to buy from somewhere and had to wait for stocks to come before declaring that use of mask is advisable.

“Why are there different types of reusable masks being issued? Can I choose which reusable mask I get?

The reusable masks are sourced from different suppliers. As there is no significant difference between the different models, they will be issued at random to eligible recipients.” https://www.maskgowhere.gov.sg/faq

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

 

Hmmm, I dunno. I think people are no good at telling COVID-19 from other diseases. I think their numbers of deaths are consistent with being off by an order of magnitude but not off by two. (I'm still assuming a CFR of about a percent.) 

 

That was my take as well.  Also based on the proportion of negative tests.  They are currently at around 12percent - if out by 10 that puts them at 1.2 pc roughly. 

[Paige]

Since viral load seems to be an important factor in how sick a person becomes, is it possible that routine masking of mildly sick and asymptomatic individuals will increase their viral loads and contribute to more serious cases? 
 

I know countries where people routinely wear masks have fewer cases now, but I imagine sick people rebreathing their own exhaled viruses and I’m wondering how that may affect them. 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Paige
Typo

[TracyP]

22 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I can’t get behind the paywall but found another article on the same thing and ran it through google translate.  

“Covid, one million Lombards infected "Cases perhaps 100 times more than registered"
by Marta Bravi
Covid, one million Lombards infected "Cases perhaps 100 times more than registered"
April 3, 2020 - 6:00 am
Researchers: "Official data take into account only serious diagnoses"

A million cases in Lombardy, out of ten million inhabitants, this could be the order of magnitude of the epidemic in our region, out of a total of 5 million Italians infected. "The cases of Covid-19 in Lombardy, and in Italy in general, are at least 10, but probably 100 times higher" than those of the official bulletins that "refer mainly to severe patients who came to the attention of hospitals". These are the results of a Doxa investigation coordinated by the group of Carlo La Vecchia and Eva Negri, the epidemiologists of the State University which estimates "the undeclared" of the coronavirus epidemic on the national territory between 27 and 30 March.

According to official data, at the end of March there were 105,792 cases and 12,442 deaths on a national scale, and 43,208 cases and 7,199 deaths at the regional level. The real figures are however uncertain: the cases recorded in Italy essentially include hospital admissions, plus a limited number of positive subjects for swabs performed in a non-systematic way. To estimate the number of possible cases, a series of questions about Covid-19 related symptoms (such as fever, headache, cold, cough, gastrointestinal complaints) were included. The survey is based on a sample of 1,000 individuals, representative of the general Italian population between 18 and 85 years in terms of sex, age, geographical area and socio-economic conditions. Of these, 169 were residents of Lombardy. The data, collected using the CAWI method (computer assisted web interviews), refer to questions asked to citizens regarding their conditions in the three weeks preceding the survey.

It therefore seems that in the last three weeks 18.3 percent of Lombards have reported Covid-19-type symptoms, while 3 percent have experienced fever above 38.5 degrees, significantly higher percentages than the rest of the country. In Italy 14.4 per cent of subjects reported symptoms and 1.5 per cent high fever. The most affected subjects? Women, young people, smokers and people with higher education.

Part of the symptoms described, however, is unrelated to Covid-19. Although the seasonal flu period ended by March 7, some of the reported symptoms could be related to other non-specific (viral) conditions, experts explain. It is possible, however, that most of the symptoms and the majority of fever episodes above 38.5 degrees in March are due to the virus. Even assuming that only half of the reported symptoms are attributable to Covid-19, about 10 percent of the Lombard population and 8 percent of the population in Italy would have been infected in the three weeks prior to data collection. The count in absolute numbers is quickly done, although the figure can be doubled assuming that most of the symptoms similar to those of Covid-19 are actually related to the pathology.

The data therefore indicate that even ignoring the asymptomatic cases, the Covid-19 epidemic affected a portion of the population certainly higher by an order of magnitude, and perhaps even two, than the recorded cases. "We come to estimate that in Italy there may be 5, 10 or even 20 million infected if the asymptomatics were very numerous - explains La Vecchia -. The not encouraging aspect is that in all the estimates made we are still far from achieving natural immunity "and that" it will still take time to arrive at zero cases ".

 

 

Thank you for this!! 

[Jaybee]

11 hours ago, Terabith said:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/nations-without-bcg-vaccination-saw-higher-cases/articleshow/74956201.cms?utm_source=facebook_pwa&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialsharebuttons&fbclid=IwAR0jfVRK8m5tcqB6l8FFYKpAQ2Fh9cyfmZk5t2LfQLPE-9aRFU5OxppdfNs&from=mdr

More and more stuff is coming out about the benefits of the BCG vaccination.  I would really like to see public health gear up to produce vaccine and vaccinate folks in the US.  

For personal reasons, I hope this proves beneficial. Our whole immediate family has received this vaccine due to overseas living/births, and a couple have had boosters. Some of us had strong reactions to the vaccine, involving a pustule at the site that took some time to heal. So I am hopeful that it means that benefits are even stronger for those, as one is pregnant, and one is on the medical frontlines.

[Pen]

28 minutes ago, Paige said:

Since viral load seems to be an important factor in how sick a person becomes, is it possible that routine masking of mildly sick and asymptomatic individuals will increase their viral loads and contribute to more serious cases? 
 

I know countries where people routinely wear masks have fewer cases now, but I imagine sick people rebreathing their own exhaled viruses and I’m wondering how that may affect them. 

 

Hm interesting question.

 I wonder if personal masks could take that into account— maybe a comfortable inner layer that virus might well pass through with a drop down area in neck region? 

 

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Pen

[TracyP]

29 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

Hmmm, I dunno. I think people are no good at telling COVID-19 from other diseases. I think their numbers of deaths are consistent with being off by an order of magnitude but not off by two. (I'm still assuming a CFR of about a percent.) 

 

I got that article from worldometer's Italy page. At worldometer they also assumed the death rate is much higher than the numbers show. I'm not commenting on their accuracy, just putting that article in context. 😉 Here's what they said at worldometer:

Italy: the real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University.

 

This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus [source].

 

The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.

 

If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19  would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.

[Arcadia]

40 minutes ago, Paige said:

Since viral load seems to be an important factor in how sick a person becomes, is it possible that routine masking of mildly sick and asymptomatic individuals will increase their viral loads and contribute to more serious cases? 
 

I know countries where people routinely wear masks have fewer cases now, but I imagine sick people rebreathing their own exhaled viruses and I’m wondering how that may affect them. 

I don’t know how it will work in the medical sense but I rather have my own exhaled virus than a viral load from nearby strangers. 

[amyx4]

1 hour ago, Where's Toto? said:

Anyone else think they are being black market sold to the highest bidder?

"Gov. Charlie Baker said a complicated international plan to purchase over 1 million N95 masks for Massachusetts health care workers and first responders was hatched after a previous order was confiscated in the Port of New York. 

Around the time that we had our 3 million masks that we had ordered through BJs confiscated in the port of New York, at that point it became pretty clear to us that using what I would describe as sort of a 'traditional approach to this' wasn't going to work," Baker said Thursday.

The governor did not specify the agency responsible for confiscating the masks.

After losing that initial order, Baker said his administration landed on a cooperative effort involving New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, Ambassador Huang Ping, Dr. Jason Li, Gene Hartigan and the state's COVID-19 Command Center.

The coalition arranged a purchase of the masks in China, which were flown back to Massachusetts Thursday aboard a New England Patriots private plane."

[TCB]

I think the issue for me is when people are posting and you can see an obvious political agenda behind their post. Personally I find that annoying and unhelpful whichever side of the great USA political divide they are from.  Information is helpful, that sort of thing less so in my opinion. 

[TCB]

I work in an ICU in a state that many think is 4-6 weeks away from our peak. We have a number of patients but still have beds, vents, PPE etc. Our managers are doing everything they can to keep us safe. I work weekends but I have seen our director of nursing on the unit the last 2 weekends. They are working really hard. However we don’t know about how supplies will be in the next weeks as orders are definitely not coming as and when expected.  I wish we could put aside blaming, scoring political points etc and just all work together to solve the problem.

On a positive note our very first patient is doing really well, got extubated and will probably go home soon!

[ElizabethB]

3 hours ago, regentrude said:

That is interesting. Raises the question about the age of patients in countries that have discontinued the vaccine because the disease is no longer prevalent. In my home country, older people have the vaccine, but it has not been recommended anymore since 1998 and is not available. So, wouldn't that mean older people fare better and younger people are harder hit? Or does it just barely mitigate the higher risk of older patients?

The way I understand it, it bumps up your immunity right after you get the vaccine, not years after.

[Rosie_0801]

Hey Guys,

Don't get into arguing about what is or isn't political. It's 3am my time and I don't wanna deal with it.  🙂 😴

[Jean in Newcastle]

I have an ICU nurse friend who has 36 ICU patients who they don't expect will live.  (Those are not the total ICU patients with COVID19).  It is extremely hard emotionally for these health care workers. 

[Jean in Newcastle]

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh, that’s rough :-(. Where?

King County Washington State

[Frances]

2 hours ago, Arcadia said:

Singapore is finally giving out reusable masks for shelter in place, one per person. It leads people to think that the government has to buy from somewhere and had to wait for stocks to come before declaring that use of mask is advisable.

“Why are there different types of reusable masks being issued? Can I choose which reusable mask I get?

The reusable masks are sourced from different suppliers. As there is no significant difference between the different models, they will be issued at random to eligible recipients.” https://www.maskgowhere.gov.sg/faq

At the end of February, South Korea first bought 50% of the countries n95 masks and later increased that percentage. these were for citizens and they used the national pharmacy association to distribute them. 
now everyone gets two per week and the prices are low. they must have had plenty for healthcare workers if they have enough of these high quality masks for the general population.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opinion/covid-face-mask-shortage.html

[JennyD]

Israel update: 8258 cases, 48 deaths.  The rate of critical cases has been pretty consistent at 2% for the past few weeks.  
The good news is that new cases seem to be leveling off.  The bad news is that some of that is almost certainly due to a testing backlog, as Israel is running low on the necessary reagent.  It looks like scientists here have developed a substitute reagent, though, so hopefully we'll be back to higher testing capacity again soon.

It has been three weeks exactly since things were closed down and 10 days since the more severe restrictions (can't go more than 100 meters from home except for groceries) were put in place.  There continue to be outbreaks in nursing homes and a few hotspots but there is also a lot of progress.  Reports are that the country will be totally locked down, with checkpoints and a heavy police presence, on Wednesday and Thursday for the start of the Passover holiday.

Expectations are that things will start to reopen very slowly after April 19 and there's a lot of discussion about what that might look like.  

 

 

 

 

[amyx4]

57 minutes ago, Rosie_0801 said:

Hey Guys,

Don't get into arguing about what is or isn't political. It's 3am my time and I don't wanna deal with it.  🙂 😴

I'm sorry. I don't post much. I'm not taking sides.

I picked a quote that didn't identify the governor's party.  I picked a quote that the governor didn't place blame on any specific person or agency.

I just wanted to highlight the disruption in the supplies lines was still happening as of a few days ago.

Edited April 5, 2020 by amyx4