Omicron anecdata?

[Acadie]

Omicron symptoms show up much faster, even one day after exposure. On Twitter rapid test advocate Michael Mina says assume positive with symptoms on day 1 and test to confirm on days 2/3. 
 

[Katy]

1 hour ago, TexasProud said:

1. I guess I wonder as well since so many of the reports I have seen with it being mild and people self-testing, aren't there a bunch of omicron positives that are NOT being reported?

I’ve known a few people who recently argued that they shouldn’t get tested because they couldn’t afford to be out of work for ten days.  So…. I would guess yes, lots of people who are avoiding tests or can’t find a test, or don’t have two hours to sit in line at a mass testing site. 

[Kassia]

1 hour ago, TexasProud said:

1. I guess I wonder as well since so many of the reports I have seen with it being mild and people self-testing, aren't there a bunch of omicron positives that are NOT being reported?

 

1 hour ago, Ottakee said:

Not sure just on  omicron, but I know families where one tested positive and the rest of the family then got sick but none tested....so one positive test was likely 3-4 positive people.  Lots of that happening here...partly due to trying to get tested and partly due to culture that it isn't serious, no vaccines, etc.

From what I've seen around here most people who are sick don't get tested and certainly wouldn't report positive results if they did.  At dd's university most students would self-test and wouldn't report because they wanted to avoid quarantine/isolation.  

[Laura Corin]

6 minutes ago, Katy said:

I’ve known a few people who recently argued that they shouldn’t get tested because they couldn’t afford to be out of work for ten days.  So…. I would guess yes, lots of people who are avoiding tests or can’t find a test, or don’t have two hours to sit in line at a mass testing site. 

The UK government is again stepping in to pay the statutory sick pay that firms have to give to people who are sick.  There's also a £500 Test and Trace Support payment for people on low income.  I don't know how comprehensive these programmes are, but when my boss and his family all had Covid, he received phone calls with multiple offers of help.

[Katy]

I can’t remember if it was this thread or another that I posted my sibling had symptoms. They tested negative but three other people in the family were exposed at work. And they all got together after being exposed but before being notified yesterday.  So I guess extended family Christmas is canceled and we’re not missing anything by staying home. 

[Wheres Toto]

I was wondering if those huge numbers in UK and Canada were results from those who show up at testing centers/doctor's offices/hospitals, or if people who do rapid tests would also be in those numbers.  If not, YIKES. 

Around here, they seem to be encouraging Test to Play, where instead of quarantining, people with exposures can test in order to continue participating in school/work/etc.  I'm sure that's going to make our numbers even higher given those results will definitely be included in the overall numbers.

 

[Laura Corin]

26 minutes ago, Wheres Toto said:

I was wondering if those huge numbers in UK and Canada were results from those who show up at testing centers/doctor's offices/hospitals, or if people who do rapid tests would also be in those numbers.  If not, YIKES. 

Around here, they seem to be encouraging Test to Play, where instead of quarantining, people with exposures can test in order to continue participating in school/work/etc.  I'm sure that's going to make our numbers even higher given those results will definitely be included in the overall numbers.

 

The rapid tests will be included if the people testing report them.  If you get a lateral flow positive you are meant to follow up with a PCR - you need to call up for an appointment for that, so the lateral flow test positive will be registered then.  There's nothing to stop someone getting a lateral flow positive and not reporting it though.

[Eilonwy]

31 minutes ago, Wheres Toto said:

I was wondering if those huge numbers in UK and Canada were results from those who show up at testing centers/doctor's offices/hospitals, or if people who do rapid tests would also be in those numbers.  If not, YIKES. 

In my part of Canada, the high numbers don’t include rapid test results, only if people then followed up with a PCR test as required and that was positive.  That may change next week as our testing prioritization to high risk people takes effect.  

Edited December 23, 2021 by Eilonwy
Clarification

[wathe]

3 hours ago, Eilonwy said:

In Ontario the rate of rise of new cases appears to have decreased, and it has in NS too, which could be a good thing if it’s true, from people really limiting contacts.  A lot of social things got cancelled last week, and even more this week. It’s possible that Public Health actions can control the spread in a meaningful way, and that makes me a bit more hopeful than I was.  
It could also be resulting from limited testing capacity, though, and that we just can’t see the new cases. 

I think it's that we've stressed our testing capacity.  Here. last week, we could get an appointment for an PCR test on the same day.  Now the next available appointment is in 5 days.

[wathe]

2 hours ago, TexasProud said:

1. I guess I wonder as well since so many of the reports I have seen with it being mild and people self-testing, aren't there a bunch of omicron positives that are NOT being reported?

Almost certainly.

We are probably catching fewer than 30% of true cases, as per Science Table estimate.

[Acadie]

25 minutes ago, wathe said:

Almost certainly.

We are probably catching fewer than 30% of true cases, as per Science Table estimate.

A doctor from one of the teaching hospitals in Cleveland said their pre-op testing went from 1% positive to 10% positive in the past week. And 50% of symptomatic Covid tests in the hospital lab are coming back positive. 

[AbcdeDooDah]

3 hours ago, Acadie said:

Omicron symptoms show up much faster, even one day after exposure. On Twitter rapid test advocate Michael Mina says assume positive with symptoms on day 1 and test to confirm on days 2/3. 
 

I'm wondering if DIL and DS don't have omicron then. He got sick seven days after she did. Then again, he had one day yuck and was out cleaning his car yesterday. He feels nothing but sinus pressure.

Edited December 23, 2021 by AbcdeDooDah

[kbutton]

1 hour ago, Wheres Toto said:

Around here, they seem to be encouraging Test to Play, where instead of quarantining, people with exposures can test in order to continue participating in school/work/etc.  I'm sure that's going to make our numbers even higher given those results will definitely be included in the overall numbers.

Our state did this (and test to stay in school). They did a pilot to see if it increased numbers, and then they expanded it across the state. I assume it didn't cause a huge increase, but I wouldn't be surprised if Omicron is a game changer for this strategy.

[wathe]

10 minutes ago, kbutton said:

Our state did this (and test to stay in school). They did a pilot to see if it increased numbers, and then they expanded it across the state. I assume it didn't cause a huge increase, but I wouldn't be surprised if Omicron is a game changer for this strategy.

I think that test-to-stay will replace quarantine for contacts, and will become the new normal.  We are seeing it in healthcare just in the last few days.  Schools will be next, I think.  

Tests aren't widely enough available here yet for broad use of the strategy.  Eventually they will be.

[AbcdeDooDah]

1 minute ago, wathe said:

I think that test-to-stay will replace quarantine for contacts, and will become the new normal.  We are seeing it in healthcare just in the last few days.  Schools will be next, I think.  

Tests aren't widely enough available here yet for broad use of the strategy.  Eventually they will be.

Do you think it will significantly cut down transmission? My son got two negatives and a positive three days in a row. 

[kbutton]

1 minute ago, wathe said:

I think that test-to-stay will replace quarantine for contacts, and will become the new normal.  We are seeing it in healthcare just in the last few days.  Schools will be next, I think.  

Tests aren't widely enough available here yet for broad use of the strategy.  Eventually they will be.

I am concerned they won't test at the right intervals here. They don't test daily with the strategy they have now, and I don't see them changing it for omicron. Any testing here is more like Day x and Day y unless you have symptoms between.

[wathe]

43 minutes ago, AbcdeDooDah said:

Do you think it will significantly cut down transmission? My son got two negatives and a positive three days in a row. 

I think so.

Especially if the test is done immediately before the event/work shift/school day.

Our current HCW protocol is daily testing before shift for 10 days in lieu of isolation.

Schools could do similar.

RATS are pretty good at indicating infectiousness - they are positive when viral loads are high.

ETA - I think that it's going to be the only way to keep hospitals staffed and keep kids in school during this wave.  Like all thing Omicron, ou understanding of the situation is evolving hourly.  We shall see.

Edited December 23, 2021 by wathe

[mom2scouts]

Our city health department just left a recorded message saying our positivity rate is "15x higher than the CDC's threshold for a high level of transmission." Getting a test is almost impossible right now. The library got 800 tests kits and they were gone within 2 hours. They're trying to talk people out of having family get togethers for Christmas.

I should note that my community has a high level of vax rates. It's a university community and most of the students are gone for the break too.

Edited December 23, 2021 by mom2scouts

[cintinative]

3 minutes ago, mom2scouts said:

Our city health department just left a recorded message saying our positivity rate is "15x higher than the CDC's threshold for a high level of transmission." Getting a test is almost impossible right now. The library got 800 tests kits and they were gone within 2 hours. They're trying to talk people out of having family get togethers for Christmas.

Are you in NE Ohio?  I am in SW Ohio and it's not "as bad" here yet, but I fear it is just a matter of time.

[Acadie]

Anecdata: Double vaxxed BIL in early 40s developed symptoms and tested positive on a rapid test 2 days after driving to San Francisco for a work trip. Confirmed by PCR. He felt exhausted, achy and major brain fog. A few days later their vaccinated 9 yo twins (I'm assuming double vaxxed) tested positive but had no symptoms and are still feeling fine. Boosted SIL is fine and testing negative. 

BIL took a turn for the worse and doctors recommended monoclonal antibodies with his history of asthma. He thought he was feeling better that night but the next day felt the same as before. He thinks he has omicron because the kind he got isn't the one effective against Omicron. 

11 days out he's still really tired and spacey. He said he feels like he's living in peanut butter. They don't seem worried about his lungs at this point--he just feels like he's felt awful forever. Twins are still feeling fine and SIL still testing negative. 

[mommyoffive]

At least 28 vaccinated people test positive for COVID after holiday party in Marin County (yahoo.com)

But the hosts had insisted that all guests be vaccinated and provide a proof of a negative at-home COVID-19 test the day of the party, according to Marin County Public Health Officer Dr. Matt Willis. Many of the guests had also received booster shots.

The organizers of the gathering did everything right, Willis said Wednesday, and there was no single factor that led to the outbreak.

"This is a glimpse into the way Omicron behaves," he said. "This kind of outbreak isn't going to feel like news soon."

Monson said that in nearly two years of running restaurants during the COVID-19 pandemic, he hasn't seen anything "remotely as transmissible" as the Omicron variant.

"Whether you're at the restaurant, at Costco, at the supermarket — for God's sake, whatever you're doing — it's a really transmissible virus," he said. "You can do all the things that you're supposed to do, and at the end of the day, you may get it anyway."

The couple who hosted the event, Mike and Eliza Koeppel, told the Marin Independent Journal that they followed guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, including guidance that said holiday parties were safe for those who are vaccinated.

Edited December 24, 2021 by mommyoffive

[mommyoffive]

[Melissa in Australia]

The Australian health minister said today in his press conference that is becoming increasingly obvious that  2 doses of vaccine do nothing to stop transmission of omicron .

but it is still seeming that it is milder than delta, with way less hospitalisation 

Edited December 24, 2021 by Melissa in Australia

[mommyoffive]

This will be messy

 

United and Delta cancel more than 200 flights due to Omicron virus spread (msn.com)

 

2 major airlines cancel holiday flights as omicron cases hit crews (msn.com)

[Starr]

I was just reading about the airlines. What a mess.

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, mommyoffive said:

This will be messy

 

United and Delta cancel more than 200 flights due to Omicron virus spread (msn.com)

 

2 major airlines cancel holiday flights as omicron cases hit crews (msn.com)

Same thing happening here due to flight crews in isolation etc

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Melissa in Australia said:

The Australian health minister said today in his press conference that is becoming increasingly obvious that  2 doses of vaccine do nothing to stop transmission of omicron .

but it is still seeming that it is milder than delta, with way less hospitalisation 

It just needs to be enough milder that we don’t need people in quarantine.  It seems like it’s almost unstoppable in terms of transmission.

 We already have two kids hospitalised out of eight hospitalisations which makes me worried about the data that there may be more hospitalisations in kids.

[Mrs Tiggywinkle]

6 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

It just needs to be enough milder that we don’t need people in quarantine.  It seems like it’s almost unstoppable in terms of transmission.

 We already have two kids hospitalised out of eight hospitalisations which makes me worried about the data that there may be more hospitalisations in kids.

I think there’s quickly coming a time when quarantine without symptoms is no longer feasible.  I wish everyone with any symptoms of anything would just stay home, anyway.

[Guest]

7 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Wait, what happened to Maryland? Are we just embarrassed to say? 😉

[El...]

2 minutes ago, Quill said:

Wait, what happened to Maryland? Are we just embarrassed to say? 😉

The state health department website has been down for over 2 weeks, and apparently they are the path through which all data goes to the cdc. Even our county health department site is without information because of the state's issues.

I suspect a serious cyber attack is the cause, but I have no inside information. 

It's frustrating, because I was stalking those pages for decision making... but perhaps I'll spend my time better without them.

[Eilonwy]

23 hours ago, wathe said:

I think it's that we've stressed our testing capacity.  Here. last week, we could get an appointment for an PCR test on the same day.  Now the next available appointment is in 5 days.

Our testing capacity is stressed, but appointments are only about 2 days out, if you have symptoms.  Asymptomatic PCR tests aren’t available at all. Here, I think the stress to testing doesn’t explain the whole change in the curve since our positive test rate is still only 6% or so (though I’m not sure, and there could be a pattern resulting from the transmission time where it hovers around one rate for a few days, then sharply increases for a few days, since all the cases started from one superspeader event only a few weeks ago- if this is the case, the daily case rate will rise steeply  in the next 2-3 days).  It’s likely that behaviour changes are also helping to flatten the curve somewhat. Looking at the graphs, though, the curve still looks shockingly vertical, so I suppose it’s really lowering the slope by just a few degrees. Almost every province in Canada now has the characteristic vertical line. 

Edited December 24, 2021 by Eilonwy

[Spryte]

Updating about our son and DIL: still not able to get tested, but they are on Day 3 of symptoms. The coughing is terrible, they say, but they are hanging in there. They are both double vaccinated and had bouts of Covid last spring. Not sure if they have Covid now, of course, but DIL had just returned from a long road trip—whatever it is, we think that’s where she picked it up. Their next door neighbors (townhouse) now have confirmed Covid and are running temps in the 104 range and having a worse time. The neighbors are likely unvaccinated.

[wathe]

1 hour ago, Eilonwy said:

Our testing capacity is stressed, but appointments are only about 2 days out, if you have symptoms.  Asymptomatic PCR tests aren’t available at all. Here, I think the stress to testing doesn’t explain the whole change in the curve since our positive test rate is still only 6% or so (though I’m not sure, and there could be a pattern resulting from the transmission time where it hovers around one rate for a few days, then sharply increases for a few days, since all the cases started from one superspeader event only a few weeks ago- if this is the case, the daily case rate will rise steeply  in the next 2-3 days).  It’s likely that behaviour changes are also helping to flatten the curve somewhat. Looking at the graphs, though, the curve still looks shockingly vertical, so I suppose it’s really lowering the slope by just a few degrees. Almost every province in Canada now has the characteristic vertical line. 

Ontario's curve has not slowed down, I 'm afraid:  1453 two weeks ago, 4383 two days ago, 5790 yesterday, 9591 today. Percent positivity is at an all time hight of 18.7%.  Was 10% 2 days ago, and 5% two weeks ago.

Quebec is a similar story, but even worse per capita.

[wathe]

Hospitalizations are also trending up in Ontario: had been in the high 200's and 300's a week ago.  440 yesterday, 508 today.   It's a slower rise, thank goodness.  But systems are so stressed right now that any rise is problematic.

[Eilonwy]

2 hours ago, wathe said:

Ontario's curve has not slowed down, I 'm afraid:  1453 two weeks ago, 4383 two days ago, 5790 yesterday, 9591 today. Percent positivity is at an all time hight of 18.7%.  Was 10% 2 days ago, and 5% two weeks ago.

Quebec is a similar story, but even worse per capita.

I’m sorry to hear that!  I’m also not sure that ours won’t take a sudden swing up, with kind of a step-wise growth pattern that happened last week. Our numbers for today haven’t been released yet.  I sincerely hope that Ontario’s and Quebec’s growth rates will slow. 

[KeriJ]

5 hours ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

I think there’s quickly coming a time when quarantine without symptoms is no longer feasible.  I wish everyone with any symptoms of anything would just stay home, anyway.

I think this alone would go a long way. My daughter got covid in the first place because people sent their kids to the theater with active symptoms.  

I remember years ago having my 2 month old in the church nursery. I was picking him up and another mom of a toddler said,  "Oh, by the way, M was diagnosed with RSV today." as M stood there coughing.  My little guy was severely sick 2 days later. 

 

[katilac]

17 hours ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

I think there’s quickly coming a time when quarantine without symptoms is no longer feasible.  I wish everyone with any symptoms of anything would just stay home, anyway.

That's unfortunately impossible overall without stunning transformations to American labor regulations. 

[gardenmom5]

On 12/18/2021 at 8:35 AM, Not_a_Number said:

Anyone know someone who has the Omicron variant? I'd be curious if we can gather some anecdata.

A friend's dd (and her dh and baby) have it.  They traveled here for Christmas and realized they had it after they arrived.  They're from NYC.   They're quarantining, and on the mend.  Her oldest son is currently at my house for the evening.   He was exposed several days ago, and tested negative today - so hopefully that was a correct result. 

 

I have a friend who cannot (health) be vax'd, and learned she'd been exposed.  Both were masked.  She was miserably sick, but at least two tests were negative - so it could have been something else.

I have EBV, and if I do too much, I get recurrent symptoms.  I'm not sure I'd know the difference unless I was really sick.

[Laura Corin]

Cross post on how to use rapid tests effectively 

https://forums.welltrainedmind.com/topic/695408-wuhan-coronavirus/?do=findComment&comment=9127223

[popmom]

11 minutes ago, Laura Corin said:

Cross post on how to use rapid tests effectively 

https://forums.welltrainedmind.com/topic/695408-wuhan-coronavirus/?do=findComment&comment=9127223

It’s paywalled. 😞 I’m very interested because I now have a 24 yr old dd here for Christmas with 102.5 degree fever. Symptoms started this morning. Rapid test tonight was negative. We still have low levels of flu. Omicron is all we hear about, so it makes me doubt the tests. 

Edited December 25, 2021 by popmom

[Laura Corin]

10 minutes ago, popmom said:

It’s paywalled. 😞 I’m very interested because I now have a 24 yr old dd here for Christmas with 102.5 degree fever. Symptoms started this morning. Rapid test tonight was negative. We still have low levels of flu. Omicron is all we hear about, so it makes me doubt the tests. 

I quoted the key passage - the tests work really well from the point when you are infectious, but before that time they show nothing. Here's a link to his research. https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3001216

 I suspect you should test your son periodically.  I'm sorry he feels bad at Christmas. 

[KSera]

1 hour ago, popmom said:

It’s paywalled. 😞 I’m very interested because I now have a 24 yr old dd here for Christmas with 102.5 degree fever. Symptoms started this morning. Rapid test tonight was negative. We still have low levels of flu. Omicron is all we hear about, so it makes me doubt the tests. 

I’m sorry! I agree with Laura to keep testing for several days. I’m hearing a lot of cases with omicron where rapid tests aren’t positive until day 2 or 3 of symptoms. Which is odd to think what the mechanism is there. There seems to possibly be more virus in the throat early on than the nose based on people testing positive from throat swabs at the same time they test negative on nasal. I hope your ds feels better tomorrow. 

[easypeasy]

How do you find out if someone has tested positive for omicron or delta? Should we just assume at this point that anyone testing positive has the omicron variant?

[Carrie12345]

For the 12/11-12/24 2-week period, 1% of my county’s population tested positive.  (That is, those that were reported.)

Am I overreacting or naive to find that shocking? Our total (reported) case count for the entire pandemic is about 14.5%.

[Pawz4me]

2 hours ago, easypeasy said:

How do you find out if someone has tested positive for omicron or delta? Should we just assume at this point that anyone testing positive has the omicron variant?

I don't believe you can find out. States do sequencing on a random number of tests. Some states have the capability to do more than others. But my guess is that unless you were really, really sick and in the hospital and that hospital happened to get info back on what variant you had (which I don't even know if they get that info)  . . I don't think there's any way to know. Given that supposedly omicron is now the dominant variant, I'd go with that assumption for anyone who's tested positive in the last few days.

[Mrs Tiggywinkle]

One of my double vaxxed and boostered coworkers tested positive yesterday.  He doesn’t feel terrible; just a crappy head cold.  Mostly he’s annoyed because he’s triple vaxxed and had Covid in October of 2020.  At this point, though, I think we all assume we’ll get it once or twice a year.  The big thing is quarantines, because we’re short staffed enough that even just one or two people being out is a big deal.

[KeriJ]

12 hours ago, KSera said:

I’m sorry! I agree with Laura to keep testing for several days. I’m hearing a lot of cases with omicron where rapid tests aren’t positive until day 2 or 3 of symptoms. Which is odd to think what the mechanism is there. There seems to possibly be more virus in the throat early on than the nose based on people testing positive from throat swabs at the same time they test negative on nasal. I hope your ds feels better tomorrow. 

That's interesting because my first symptom was a scratchy throat,  but my test was negative. By the time it moved to my nose, I tested positive.

[Corraleno]

My BIL in the UK tested positive on Monday and has been in isolation all week, so no Christmas for him. He presumes it's omicron and thankfully it's been pretty mild, mostly like a bad cold. He is double-vaxxed, but with AZ. He is also the main caregiver for my MIL, who is 86, bedridden, and in very poor health, so he really had to scramble to hire extra help in to cover this week for him. So other than a hired caregiver she doesn't know, my MIL is also spending Christmas alone. 

Edited December 25, 2021 by Corraleno

[Cordelia]

An extended family member had a dental appointment on December 17. She started having a sore throat the next day. 

My mom tested positive December 22. DS5 came down with a fever the night of December 24. Now DS5 and DS3 are both sick. I highly suspect they also have covid. Our entire household is getting tested on Monday (soonest I could get an appointment). 

We have cancelled our travel plans. What a Christmas. 

[KSera]

5 minutes ago, Cordelia said:

An extended family member had a dental appointment on December 17. She started having a sore throat the next day. 

My mom tested positive December 22. DS5 came down with a fever the night of December 24. Now DS5 and DS3 are both sick. I highly suspect they also have covid. Our entire household is getting tested on Monday (soonest I could get an appointment). 

We have cancelled our travel plans. What a Christmas. 

I'm really sorry. I hope everyone is feeling better very soon.