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Omicron anecdata?


Not_a_Number

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My husband and I (triple vaccinated) both are sick with some crud.  Came down with it Tuesday.   My husband took a rapid, which was negative, but I went and got a pcr.  The doctor there said negatives on rapids aren’t trustworthy.  I’m kinda panicking now and worried that it will be positive.  Flu was negative.  Just not sure what odds are of it being something other than covid at this point.  

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14 minutes ago, Terabith said:

My husband and I (triple vaccinated) both are sick with some crud.  Came down with it Tuesday.   My husband took a rapid, which was negative, but I went and got a pcr.  The doctor there said negatives on rapids aren’t trustworthy.  I’m kinda panicking now and worried that it will be positive.  Flu was negative.  Just not sure what odds are of it being something other than covid at this point.  

We have a lot of Covid right now, but a lot of other random crud too. Two of my coworkers' husband's both got a nasty sneezy, fever, cough, body ache thing that wasn't covid or flu after testing. Another co-worker had what I would have bet was the flu but she tested negative for flu and covid. My niece has bronchitis, but not covid. After almost 2 years of not getting sick, everyone is saying the same thing - it really sucks to get sick no matter what it is! I hope you feel better soon!

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1 hour ago, MEmama said:

Well I *want* to hear different perspectives— I think most people on this board do. So I hope you’ll keep posting honestly about your experience— we are all living our own little personal hells right now with this stupid virus, and it’s helpful to hear other voices. Hopefully doing so helps all of us gain more empathy for one another. ❤️

This is where I am too. I tell my kids that we are all someplace on a spectrum of Covid concern/cautiousness and not to worry about where other people are on the spectrum and not to be worried about what other people think about where they themselves fall. It is just wasted energy at a time when we all need to be kind to ourselves and to each other. 
 

I consider myself cautious. I have had 3 shots. We have never gone back to indoor church. I haven’t eaten in a restaurant in two years. I wear a mask whenever I leave the house, including when I’m outside and people are more than six feet away from me. No one in our household goes to school or works outside of the home. No one in our family has gotten Covid so far. But…..about 3 times a year I let my kids have a party at home with their little core group of friends who are all vaccinated. I feel like this is really important to my own kids as well as their friends. My 12 year old just started Lexapro for panic attacks, so I really want to balance Covid safety with mental health. 
 

However, to my oldest daughter, I am pretty insane for having people in the house. Ever. 
 

Her level of caution is much higher than mine. I’m so grateful that she is respectful and accepting of our different situations and our different choices. 
 

I have a friend who is the poster child for obnoxious Covid denier. Fortunately, she is in another state, so I can’t actually be infected by her. I’m pretty dumbfounded by the choices she makes. She caught Covid at an outdoor festival. I was surprised until she told me that she was sharing food with strangers. She has preexisting conditions. Her mother-in-law died from Covid early on. And yet she just says, “I’m going to do what I want to do.”

I will admit that it is difficult for me to not be judgmental, but I remind myself that number 1, I don’t know everything, and number 2, alienating her will only make things worse.  My only chance of changing her mind is to listen, and be respectful and share my own feelings and try to set an example for her, as well as give her a gracious way out if she does start changing her mind. I also try to have an open mind in terms of understanding why she is so different from the way I am, and how those differences are really positive and important in other areas of our lives. 
 

Basically, the last 2 years have sucked. In addition to Covid, I’ve had aggressive cancer, 2 weeks in ICU,5 surgeries, 2 broken bones, a diagnosis of PTSD, 12 rounds of chemo and pretty much continuous pain of one type or another. I’m doing the best I can, and I’m so grateful for the family and friends who give me grace when I make mistakes. I want to be that person for everybody I love, because if Covid dies off, and my relationships are fractured, Covid wins, and I’m determined not to let that happen. 

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3 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Anyone know anyone that wears a KF94 or KN95 or N95 mask in public who is vaccinated and still caught it?

I'd love to see some good data on the masking status in various outbreaks. I have one anecdote of a party of doctors who got together over the holidays and all of them got covid except the one wearing an N95. The rest were wearing surgical masks (I know that's not the right word for them, but no one knows what kind I'm talking about if I call them anything else).

3 hours ago, Quill said:

Honestly, at this point, people who are still (still!) refusing the vax don’t have much, if any, incentive to capitulate now. The vaccine does not firewall Omicron. Full stop. It does not work. We who were willing to take three jabs for the team did not stop the tidal wave. There is now little benefit to being in a “smart about Covid” state; it now makes no difference that my son and his gf attend a university with almost 100% vaccination compliance. Who cares? They got it anyway! Yes, thankfully, they were mildly sick. But the university is going back to 100% testing to be on campus. Their vax compliance made no difference in spread of the virus. 

If I just dropped down to earth today and learned about covid and the current state of the vaccines, I would be rushing to get mine and feel relieved once vaccinated, because I would not want to end up in ICU with covid and/or die of it. Absolutely they make a HUGE difference still with the risk of that.

2 hours ago, kokotg said:

Well, my BIL, but he was also eating at restaurants and seeing vaccinated close friends/family. Is there anyone who not only wears good masks in public but also is NEVER inside with a mask off with anyone who doesn't? I mean, probably SOMEONE, but it would be incredibly rare.

That would be my whole family. We wear KF94 or N95 masks and only visit people outside, and even then, with masks if we're going to be close. It's the same for all of my family members. My dh ate in a restuarant once at the beginning of Summer, when that seemed reasonable. Even my college kids do the same, except for eating in dining halls. Not sure they will be doing so in January; they are more likely to take and go for the initial weeks until things get better. It's hard to get good data on mask status of people who catch it, because I think it's most common to be like your BIL--people who say they wear masks all the time, but they are still eating in restaurants and might visit with people outside their household. Which means they shouldn't be included in the "masks all the time" data group.

1 hour ago, cintinative said:

Not to mention the plight of the healthcare workers. Ohio is slammed.  And even when we weren't "slammed" there was not really a chance to rest.

This is what has me the most worried about everyone throwing up their hands at the same time. It's one thing for people to be resigned to getting it at some point, but so many people are all deciding they might as well get it now, and this is the worst time to do that for the sake of healthcare.

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Public Health Ontario study highlights:

"Early Estimates of Omicron Severity in Ontario
based on a Matched Cohort Study, November
22 to December 17, 2021"

Bottom line:  Omicron appears to have a 54% reduction in risk of hospitalization and death compared to Delta.  But, due to increased transmissibility, the absolute number of hospitalizations and impact on the health care system  is likely to be significant.

 

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3 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Anyone know anyone that wears a KF94 or KN95 or N95 mask in public who is vaccinated and still caught it?

I would love to know this, too. I don’t know anyone. I do know that we wore Kn95s at a wedding this summer. Only one of the six of us were not vaccinated. We did not get Covid even though close friends, with whom we spent a lot of time, did. They were unmasked—some vaccinated, some not. 

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Also, the issue with rapid tests not being as effective — are they eventually turning positive for some patients, or simply staying negative through the whole course of illness? 

Sigh. 

DH’s parents and my mom are in the same nursing facility. Five staff are Covid positive, and MIL was up coughing all night (per the nurse). They are giving her cough syrup, and her rapid test was negative. We are just going to have to wait and see what happens next. I hate waiting.

ETA: we’re now up to seven positive staff members and two residents. Ugh!

Edited by Spryte
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1 minute ago, heartlikealion said:

I didn’t even know what it was til I googled it. Sounds like a cool gift. 

Yes, they are handy! We always have them on hand because we have kids with asthma and histories of pneumonia. They really alleviate some of the guesswork re: do we need to go to the hospital.

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2 minutes ago, Spryte said:

Also, the issue with rapid tests not being as effective — are they eventually turning positive for some patients, or simply staying negative through the whole course of illness? 

Sigh. 

DH’s parents and my mom are in the same nursing facility. Five staff are Covid positive, and MIL was up coughing all night (per the nurse). They are giving her cough syrup, and her rapid test was negative. We are just going to have to wait and see what happens next. I hate waiting.
 

I don’t know what kind of test but during Covid my sister had a negative followed by a positive. I don’t get it. No telling what to trust 

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4 hours ago, Quill said:

Also, I’m sitting at my desk at work and flower-delivery folks just arrived at the townhouse across the street, where a dear, sweet elderly man lives with a person I believe to be his mother (probably in her 90s). They just delivered *three* flower arrangements there. If that dear man died of Covid…I just don’t even know. I was tempted to run over there and ask who the flowers were for and what the cards say. #nosy

Just coming back to say, the man did not die and neither did his mother. I saw them both. I don’t know what all the flowers are for (and there was another flower delivery later as well), but at least it was not him or his mom. Sees likely it was a death though. 

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16 minutes ago, Spryte said:

Also, the issue with rapid tests not being as effective — are they eventually turning positive for some patients, or simply staying negative through the whole course of illness

My dd had 2 negative rapid tests on Wed and Friday, then a positive on Sunday. So they're catching at least some of them, but probably not until the viral load is high.

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I’ve had two separate patients this morning who had negative at home tests, still felt crappy, went to the ER and got a positive rapid there.

So god only knows anymore.  I’ve felt crappy a couple days, have about six known exposures, and repeat negative tests.  But there’s so much else going around—flu, RSV, regular old colds and non Covid URIs.  

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I think we will just have to await further testing for MIL. Boo. 

My mom just called, and they have two more staff and now two residents positive. Seems there’s an outbreak happening at the facility. My mom is staying in her room for now, and watching football. No more activities for a bit. 

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5 hours ago, MEmama said:

Yes. I haven’t been inside anywhere other than my home without a mask (KF94 since summer) since April 2020. Not once.

 

5 hours ago, kokotg said:

yes, but, like I said, I bet that's incredibly rare. And even for people who don't go inside without a good mask anywhere except their own home, that would also need be true for all their household members for it to be a perfect experiment. 

 

3 hours ago, mlktwins said:

Me neither!!!

Add me, my dh, and my ds to the list of people who haven't gone anywhere without a mask since the first week of February, 2020.  We haven't even been inside a store (or anywhere else, except when my dh needed bloodwork, and then he has gotten the first appointment of the day and has worn an N95 and eye protection.)

It's the worst for my ds21, and we have told him that we are willing to accept some risk if he wants to go out and do some normal things, but he says that we have been careful this long, so he's going to stick it out. The poor guy worries so much about possibly bringing Covid home to my immunosuppressed dh. 😞 

I wish I could be sure that masks were effective enough to prevent us from catching Covid, but then people start talking about needing tight-fitting goggles for eye protection, and what if there is even the tiniest gap in the mask...  UGH!!!!! Too much to worry about.

 

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1 hour ago, Spryte said:

Also, the issue with rapid tests not being as effective — are they eventually turning positive for some patients, or simply staying negative through the whole course of illness? 

Sigh. 

DH’s parents and my mom are in the same nursing facility. Five staff are Covid positive, and MIL was up coughing all night (per the nurse). They are giving her cough syrup, and her rapid test was negative. We are just going to have to wait and see what happens next. I hate waiting.

ETA: we’re now up to seven positive staff members and two residents. Ugh!

They are usually turning positive if people keep testing. It's seeming like a lot of people are infectious or at least symptomatic now before their rapid test turns positive. But a PCR usually will turn before a rapid test. I've seen a hypothesis that with vaccinated people, they may get symptoms sooner in the course of illness because their immune system recognizes the virus quickly and mounts a defense right away (which causes symptoms). So, that may be causing symptoms before positive RAT. A naive immune system is likely to take longer to mount a defense and cause symptoms.

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4 hours ago, Terabith said:

My husband and I (triple vaccinated) both are sick with some crud.  Came down with it Tuesday.   My husband took a rapid, which was negative, but I went and got a pcr.  The doctor there said negatives on rapids aren’t trustworthy.  I’m kinda panicking now and worried that it will be positive.  Flu was negative.  Just not sure what odds are of it being something other than covid at this point.  

Covid pcr was negative.  So just crud. 

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On 12/29/2021 at 9:27 AM, Roadrunner said:

Britain says 90% of patients in ICUs aren’t boosted. So 10% of them are boosted then. That’s not good news. 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/covid-latest-news-pharmacies-demand-001653722.html

Two jabs are to keep you from the hospital, three to keep you from getting sick. How quickly everything changes. 

 

On 12/29/2021 at 11:21 AM, Laura Corin said:

Although this doesn't make it alright, it's possible that that 10 percent comprises mostly the extremely elderly and others with poor immune response. The very elderly and medically fragile were in the first cohort offered boosters.

Do we know whether the 10% fall into the incidental group? From the article:

Covid infections hit a record high on Tuesday but the most up to date NHS data show that just one fifth of the weekly rise in Covid inpatients were admitted to hospital because of the virus, as opposed to being admitted for unrelated reasons.

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4 hours ago, Terabith said:

My husband and I (triple vaccinated) both are sick with some crud.  Came down with it Tuesday.   My husband took a rapid, which was negative, but I went and got a pcr.  The doctor there said negatives on rapids aren’t trustworthy.  I’m kinda panicking now and worried that it will be positive.  Flu was negative.  Just not sure what odds are of it being something other than covid at this point.  

Dd tested negative a couple of weeks ago for flu, strep, and covid at the doctor's office. She's had a nasty cough and it is taking her quite awhile to recover. I do believe there is another nasty virus of some kind going around, like (or the same) as the one I had in the early summer.

ETA: I meant to say that I hope you recover quickly, of whatever it is you have. 

Edited by Jaybee
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15 minutes ago, popmom said:

 

Do we know whether the 10% fall into the incidental group? From the article:

Covid infections hit a record high on Tuesday but the most up to date NHS data show that just one fifth of the weekly rise in Covid inpatients were admitted to hospital because of the virus, as opposed to being admitted for unrelated reasons.

So basically a patient admitted into ICU for cancer who happens to also be positive for Covid is counted as a Covid ICU patient and not as a cancer one? What sort of a bullshit is that? I now question all statistics about this disease. Or am I misreading it?

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4 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

So basically a patient admitted into ICU for cancer who happens to also be positive for Covid is counted as a Covid ICU patient and not as a cancer one? What sort of a bullshit is that? I now question all statistics about this disease. Or am I misreading it?

This is what DH always says and why he doesn't like me talking about hospitalization covid numbers.  

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As far as rapid home tests go, ours seemed to be somewhat accurate.  We were testing daily because of exposure.  The results were negative until the day we started mild symptoms, and then they showed up positive.  The ones who never had symptoms and stayed isolated never got a positive result. 

On day 9, dd still tested positive,  and on day 10 was finally negative again.  Similar for the rest of us.  

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17 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

So basically a patient admitted into ICU for cancer who happens to also be positive for Covid is counted as a Covid ICU patient and not as a cancer one? What sort of a bullshit is that? I now question all statistics about this disease. Or am I misreading it?

Bingo!! You are not misreading it. They aren’t being very forthright in distinguishing hospitalizations “for” or “with”. Well, I’ve found a few people who are willing to tease it out, so I clicked on the article looking for just that. 

Edited by popmom
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18 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

So basically a patient admitted into ICU for cancer who happens to also be positive for Covid is counted as a Covid ICU patient and not as a cancer one? What sort of a bullshit is that? I now question all statistics about this disease. Or am I misreading it?

I don’t think it’s a matter of BS, it’s just a matter of what statistics are currently available to report. It’s not like we have a sudden surge of people with cancer off the chart and that’s the reason hospitals are overrun. It’s Covid. It happens that some of the Covid positive patients were admitted for another reason. I agree it would be nice to have data to tease those to out. Hopefully some places are able to do that. If you listen to ICU doctors and nurses, you will hear loud and clear: it’s Covid over running them. 

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12 minutes ago, KSera said:

I don’t think it’s a matter of BS, it’s just a matter of what statistics are currently available to report. It’s not like we have a sudden surge of people with cancer off the chart and that’s the reason hospitals are overrun. It’s Covid. It happens that some of the Covid positive patients were admitted for another reason. I agree it would be nice to have data to tease those to out. Hopefully some places are able to do that. If you listen to ICU doctors and nurses, you will hear loud and clear: it’s Covid over running them. 

Well, as an individual who has been scared to death with these statistics, I would actually like to know who/how many Covid alone is sending to ICU, not excluding comorbeiditoes, but in ICU because they got Covid. I am shocked that we can’t have cleaner data. 

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19 minutes ago, popmom said:

Bingo!! You are not misreading it. They aren’t being very forthright in distinguishing hospitalizations “for” or “with”. Well, I’ve found a few people who are willing to tease it out, so I clicked on the article looking for just that. 

Have you seen it broken out anywhere? I would love to know. I understand sometimes lines can be blurred, but still would like at least attempted stats. 

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32 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

This is terrible. It’s in our interest to understand the who is truly in ICU due to Covid.

I have read several articles stating that many (most?) of the children hospitalized are not there due to Covid but are positive when tested. The news doesn’t accurately depict what’s going on. Very frustrating. 

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2 minutes ago, whitestavern said:

I have read several articles stating that many (most?) of the children hospitalized are not there due to Covid but are positive when tested. The news doesn’t accurately depict what’s going on. Very frustrating. 

Is there an overall increase in children’s hospitalizations, though? Why would that be? What about looking at something like excess hospitalizations, much like looking at excess deaths?

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11 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Have you seen it broken out anywhere? I would love to know. I understand sometimes lines can be blurred, but still would like at least attempted stats. 

For previous variants you can look at excess deaths to see that it really is covid 

We can’t tell really with omicron yet I don’t think.

They aren’t counting the two deaths here yet this week until they get the coroners report.

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1 hour ago, Roadrunner said:

So basically a patient admitted into ICU for cancer who happens to also be positive for Covid is counted as a Covid ICU patient and not as a cancer one? What sort of a bullshit is that? I now question all statistics about this disease. Or am I misreading it?

Our local hospitals are EXCLUDING those patients from their covid counts.   They have that listed on their website that covid patients are those in for COVID.  Patients in for other reasons that also have COVID are NOT counted.   Not sure though that all do that though.

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11 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

For previous variants you can look at excess deaths to see that it really is covid 

We can’t tell really with omicron yet I don’t think.

They aren’t counting the two deaths here yet this week until they get the coroners report.

This isn't really accurate. My friend who works in our local hospital says most of the children who have been in ICU the past 6 months or so have had RSV, not covid. So excess deaths would not necessarily indicate covid deaths.

 

Our hospital has separate stats for those hospitalized due to covid and those who tested positive but are hospitalized for another reason.

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18 minutes ago, Spryte said:

Is there an overall increase in children’s hospitalizations, though? Why would that be? What about looking at something like excess hospitalizations, much like looking at excess deaths?

All of those are great questions. Concerned parents would love to know what is happening with data. 

 

Just now, Ottakee said:

Our local hospitals are EXCLUDING those patients from their covid counts.   They have that listed on their website that covid patients are those in for COVID.  Patients in for other reasons that also have COVID are NOT counted.   Not sure though that all do that though.

I am really hoping this is the nationwide policy. 

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2 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

All of those are great questions. Concerned parents would love to know what is happening with data. 

 

I am really hoping this is the nationwide policy. 

They really need to make both sets of data available. An increase in covid positive even if not admitted for covid is still something healthcare need to know as it’s more complicated managing infection control etc.

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2 minutes ago, Spryte said:

Our local hospitals also list patients hospitalized due to Covid, and separate them into unvaccinated, vaccinated, and vaccinated with booster. 

I wish ours did. What are you seeing? What percentage are vaccinated, unvaccinated, and boosted? That sort of detail is amazing. 

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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

They really need to make both sets of data available. An increase in covid positive even if not admitted for covid is still something healthcare need to know as it’s more complicated managing infection control etc.

Absolutely. I am hoping we are collecting every detail. There is no other way to really wrap around our heads over this and have intelligent policy. 
My neighbor’s kid has lupus. They have been living in terror for couple of years. More people can see the detail to learn the true picture, easier to cope. 

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I am not in full blown panic mode but there’s a couple of things making me more anxious about the kids at the moment.  Quite a number of doctors reporting an increase in kids presenting with croup - all covid positive.  Possible just incidental as it’s probably a good time of year for croup on the Northern hemisphere. I’m combining that with the admittedly very slim data on omicron impacting more on bronchial than lungs and I can see there’s a mechanism with this variant that could explain an increase in kid hospitalisations for asthma etc.  there is also anecdotal reports from South African and there’s a graph showing that hospitalisations are trending up faster relative to cases in kids than previous waves.  
 

None of those things on their own are convincing but the whole picture is elevating my level of concern a bit.  Probably compounded by the child death here yesterday although that’s still unclear whether covid was the cause or just incidental.

The increase is not massive though.  The overall risk to kids is still very very low compared to older age groups.  It just makes me a bit more mindful of my asthma prone kids in the short term until the data is clearer.

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17 minutes ago, Meriwether said:

This isn't really accurate. My friend who works in our local hospital says most of the children who have been in ICU the past 6 months or so have had RSV, not covid. So excess deaths would not necessarily indicate covid deaths.

 

Our hospital has separate stats for those hospitalized due to covid and those who tested positive but are hospitalized for another reason.

Yeah true RSV has been bad.  I think RSV rates are down in the UK at the moment so not explaining the increase there.

The issue is we’re still dealing with very small numbers so any little glitch in the data seems to make a massive difference.

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1 hour ago, KSera said:

I don’t think it’s a matter of BS, it’s just a matter of what statistics are currently available to report. It’s not like we have a sudden surge of people with cancer off the chart and that’s the reason hospitals are overrun. It’s Covid. It happens that some of the Covid positive patients were admitted for another reason. I agree it would be nice to have data to tease those to out. Hopefully some places are able to do that. If you listen to ICU doctors and nurses, you will hear loud and clear: it’s Covid over running them. 

I don't think anyone here is disputing that. I ((am)) optimistic that as Omicron displaces Delta that admissions due to COVID will come down. 

eta: this also depends a lot on where you live. Delta is still wreaking havoc in many places, but not where I live. 

Edited by popmom
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26 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Absolutely. I am hoping we are collecting every detail. There is no other way to really wrap around our heads over this and have intelligent policy. 
My neighbor’s kid has lupus. They have been living in terror for couple of years. More people can see the detail to learn the true picture, easier to cope. 

I think this is much more of an issue now with omicron than with previous variants because it’s so widespread.  The chance of testing positive with delta but that not being a major factor was fairly low whereas so so many people are getting omicron it’s going to be much more important to separate out so we can understand true severity. Hopefully data collectors recognise that and tweak accordingly.

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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

They really need to make both sets of data available. An increase in covid positive even if not admitted for covid is still something healthcare need to know as it’s more complicated managing infection control etc.

Yes…important to note that this alone contributes partly to why the hospitals are overwhelmed. It requires more staffing--more exposures and illness among HCW which creates staffing shortages. 😞

Edited by popmom
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5 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Wow, so only one in the hospital who had a booster if I am reading this correctly. 

Yes! That’s promising. A few days ago, the chart looked a bit different. I think there were four total who were boosted, one in ICU, none on ventilators. Or something close to that. They update daily.

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