Is the goal FLATTEN THE CURVE or ELIMINATE COVID?

[frogger]

Well, every state has it's own task force so hard to say.

 

Our state has focused on keeping us out of the steep part of the curve. More the Hammer and the Dance model. They put in SIP orders amazingly fast. They are watching growth not just total cases. I think this is the important piece to remember.  Keeping it that far below hospital capacity has a large number of people angry and frustrated because they want to open now with an empty hospital AND shuttered businesses.

I think the majority of Alaskans are happy with it though despite loud complaints by a small group and we are opening more segments. I have not heard any Alaskan complain about opening up phase by phase. I have heard complaints of not opening fast enough but watching growth is key in my opinion. 

 

[Corraleno]

Who exactly is the "they" that keep "moving the goalposts"? I realize this is a major talking point in certain media outlets, but IMO it's a straw man being pushed for political purposes. I have not seen or read anything from any governor, epidemiologist, public health expert, scientist, etc., suggesting that the economy needs to remain shut down until there is a vaccine. I've heard a few people say that they personally plan to SIP as much as possible until there is a vaccine, but I have never heard anyone say they think the entire country should, or even can, remain shut down that long.

The shut down is supposed to flatten the curve until (1) hospitals can handle the level of CV19 patients they are getting AND (2) we have enough PPE and testing/tracing capacity to keep it that way. Maybe some people are just assuming that if their local hospital has plenty of capacity, then their county is ready for business as usual, even if the hospital still doesnt have enough PPE for more patients and there is no ability to test/trace to reduce continuing outbreaks? If that's the case then the problem isn't that the goal posts were moved, it's that people didn't understand where they were to begin with.

Edited April 22, 2020 by Corraleno

[frogger]

3 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Who exactly is the "they" that keep "moving the goalposts"? I realize this is a major taking point in certain media outlets, but IMO it's a straw man being pushed for political purposes. I have not seen or read anything from any governor, epidemiologist, public health expert, scientist, etc., suggesting that the economy needs to remain shut down until there is a vaccine. I've heard a few people say that they personally plan to SIP as much as possible until there is a vaccine, but I have never heard anyone say they think the entire country should, or even can, remain shut down that long.

The shut down is supposed to flatten the curve until (1) hospitals can handle the level of CV19 patients they are getting AND (2) we have enough PPE and testing/tracing capacity to keep it that way. Maybe some people are just assuming that if their local hospital has plenty of capacity, then their county is ready for business as usual, even if the hospital still doesnt have enough PPE for more patients and there is no ability to test/trace to reduce continuing outbreaks? If that's the case then the problem isn't that the goal posts were moved, it's that people didn't understand where they were to begin with.

 

I think this is huge. Americans will need to start ignoring sloppy journalists and facebook rants and listen to actual press conferences, reports, and mandates.

[Terabith]

I think the problem is that the goal is to flatten the curve, but what needed to happen while we were locked down was to build up resources....enough PPE and testing.  But, we've spent the time we've been locked down arguing and not doing procuring the things we need to be able to open up (cautiously).  Reality is it will probably be a less a low curve and more a series of spikes.  Lock down, open up, lock down, etc.

[KeriJ]

1 hour ago, teachermom2834 said:

I don't get the moving goalposts as much from public officials as from the general public. Where I Iive we have flattened the curve. Hospitals have capacity and equipment. We have testing and contract tracing set up (supposedly? I guess people are rightfully skeptical of government) and we are beginning to reopen. However, my FB feed and the comments I notice on any news article on FB  seem to overwhelmingly suggest that people are expecting we should stay shut down until there are no more positives. I think our area meets the guidelines laid out for opening but I get that people are nervous. I'm nervous too. However, the general sentiment I am getting is that we should shut down until no one is at risk at all. I'm not one to get into arguments or wade into controversy on social media but i am curious as to what the end game is for these folks. It seems they just want everything shut down until it is gone.

I think things will gradually reopen, there will be more cases but the hospital system can handle, and when it ticks up too much we'll pull back. That's the dance, right? However, the general public seems to think we should either stay shut down until the disease is gone, or we should open wide and not have any problems. I think people are going to go nuts when we open some things and there still are cases. I really need to get off social media. If someone expresses that they wish their kid could have speech therapy people respond with things like "you think people should DIE just so your kid has perfect speech!"  and "blood on your hands!" Ugh. 

We aren't going to get to zero cases. 

Now everyone is warning about the second wave in the fall and that we need to stay shut down until that passes. I haven't heard that from public officials, yet (except for things like large events) but it seems to be what the public is clamoring for. Maybe it is just the vocal minority.

 

 

 

This is exactly how I am seeing it too.  The shaming is going to be HUGE whenever some restrictions are lifted and people tip toe back out.

[Corraleno]

25 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/08/lockdowns-cant-end-until-covid-19-vaccine-found-study-says

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-lockdown-uk-vaccine-cure-covid-19-nhs-government-scientists-a9404636.html

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/lockdowns-shouldnt-be-fully-lifted-until-coronavirus-vaccine-found-new-study-warns/ar-BB12nI2j

I am not suggesting I agree with any of these or that these are anything official or any sort of policy or anything.  But yeah, there is media that is saying or promoting the concept of staying on lockdown until the vaccine is developed, so yeah, 12 to 18 months.

 

ETA: I just pulled those with a quick google, and there are all sorts of different ones that have discussed the idea published at various times throughout this.  

Did you actually read those articles? The headline for the first article says "Lockdown can't end until COvi-19 vaccine found, study says!" This is what the article actually says:

"Countries wanting to end the lockdown and allow people to move about and work again will have to monitor closely for new infections and adjust the controls they have in place until there is a vaccine against Covid-19, according to a new study based on the Chinese experience.

...the researchers warn, if normal life is allowed to resume too quickly and the lifting of controls is too extensive, the reproductive number will rise again. Governments will need to keep a close watch on what is happening, they say.

“Although control policies such as physical distancing and behavioural change are likely to be maintained for some time, proactively striking a balance between resuming economic activities and keeping the reproductive number below one is likely to be the best strategy until effective vaccines become widely available,” said Wu."

So no, the goal posts have not changed. 

 

[KeriJ]

1 minute ago, Corraleno said:

Did you actually read those articles? The headline for the first article says "Lockdown can't end until COvi-19 vaccine found, study says!" This is what the article actually says:

"Countries wanting to end the lockdown and allow people to move about and work again will have to monitor closely for new infections and adjust the controls they have in place until there is a vaccine against Covid-19, according to a new study based on the Chinese experience.

...the researchers warn, if normal life is allowed to resume too quickly and the lifting of controls is too extensive, the reproductive number will rise again. Governments will need to keep a close watch on what is happening, they say.

“Although control policies such as physical distancing and behavioural change are likely to be maintained for some time, proactively striking a balance between resuming economic activities and keeping the reproductive number below one is likely to be the best strategy until effective vaccines become widely available,” said Wu."

So no, the goal posts have not changed. 

 

But as was mentioned in the post I quoted above, the general public doesn't seem to be getting it.  If you are on social media at all, the minute there is a headline about lifting any restrictions, 532 people comment that "we're going to kill everyone if we don't stay home for months longer!!!"  

[ktgrok]

Just now, KeriJ said:

But as was mentioned in the post I quoted above, the general public doesn't seem to be getting it.  If you are on social media at all, the minute there is a headline about lifting any restrictions, 532 people comment that "we're going to kill everyone if we don't stay home for months longer!!!"  

well, in that case the problem is reading comprehension. Not sure how to fix that. Other than for those who know the facts to spread those.

[historically accurate]

17 minutes ago, KeriJ said:

But as was mentioned in the post I quoted above, the general public doesn't seem to be getting it.  If you are on social media at all, the minute there is a headline about lifting any restrictions, 532 people comment that "we're going to kill everyone if we don't stay home for months longer!!!"  

Huh. We're exactly the opposite here. Story of 6 deaths in a week (including a person in their 20s) gets, "How many of them were from nursing homes?" or "Were there any flu deaths?". The one I really don't understand is  "It's all in Chicago - our hospitals are fine." as they are literally reporting the cases in THIS mostly rural county.

Edited April 22, 2020 by beckyjo

[Corraleno]

2 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

It doesn't matter if I read it.  I am saying that there have been plenty of these things, all with varying degrees of scare tactics and THAT is why people get confused.  

What I think about the articles doesn't matter.  It was a response to people saying they hadn't seen anything like that every said anywhere. 

And my point was that the article doesn't say that. If people in the US are "confused" because they saw a headline in a British newspaper and failed to read even the first paragraph — which directly contradicts the headline — then they chose confusion over information that was right in front of them, and that's just willful ignorance. What's much more likely, though, is that they heard someone on a certain news channel claim that "THEY want the whole country to shut down for 2 years!!!" and believed it without even bothering to look into it further. Which, quite frankly, i's also willful ignorance.

[catz]

I think goalposts have moved somewhat.  But I think experts are learning as we go and things were and will be expected to evolve.  I don't think epidemiologists have been surprised. The models evolve because they're based on most current data. We don't have nearly enough testing data to make good conclusions about spread and containment.  I absolutely think people that get this in 6 months and later in 12 months, etc are definitely going to be in a better place than patients today.  They will have health care providers with adequate safety equipment and with good protocol training that are not learning on the fly.  There may be better knowledge about anti-virals.  They might have better knowledge about how to mitigate common complications.  There may be better protocols in place to keep people from developing pneumonia and out of the hospital.   I imagine we will build better knowledge about how NOT to get this as well.  

I have never heard our governor talk about moving to zero cases.  It's about building hospital capacity, expanding testing, making sure health care providers can be safe and move to a system of tracking and tracing outbreaks, and not getting to a place where you have to pick individuals who aren't going to get treatment.  If you looking at countries managing this well, this is what they have in place.   

And honestly, this country should have had MUCH better stock piles and protocols in place and moved much faster on this.  The warning signs have been there for years.  I remember holding my breath when SARS, MERS, Ebola, H1N1 were in the news.  We would not be in this position if heavy screening of travelers and reliable testing protocols were put into place in January/February time frame.  

[Pen]

It depends where you are.

New Zealand clearly has the potential to eradicate CV19 within the country and to use quarantine etc to essential keep CV free.

My state within USA, the goal is clearly to flatten the curve, not overwhelm medical systems. 

Basically this applies here too:

1 hour ago, bolt. said:

In my country (Canada) the goal is to flatten the curve -- and it's nice and flat with these measures. That was the point. The measure in place is producing the desired result.

However, from what I understand about outbreaks, if we reduce many restrictions at all, it's like we are restarting an exponential process. We're just starting it on the day of restriction reduction. We would have delayed the same peak, occurring later in time, not a successful ongoing flattened curve. A successful ongoing flattened curve is what we have now.

Now, maybe it's theoretically possible to do the kind of reduction-in-restrictions that allows for low-moderate spread. I can see that as a goal, but I can't see how to predict what actions would produce that exact target.

In fact, being right where I am geographically, I think that we are semi-unintentionally creeping up our amount of contact due to nice weather and being encouraged to engage in nice distant outdoor fitness activities near our homes. We were allowed that kind of outing the whole time, but few people do it on blustery cold days with snow and sleet. Now almost everybody is taking a lovely walk most days. Also gardening (and home/garden related shopping). So, that's a nice fractional increase in contact level: perfect for the idea of a very slight increase in transmission.

So the goal is to transmit slowly thorough the spring and summer, allowing the population to get it gradually, with every sufferer who needs care getting care. This would be at a rate that never goes beyond hospital capacity. (It won't change the deaths due to symptoms. Those will keep coming, but it will change deaths due to symptoms-plus-inadequate-care. That's the goal.) I imagine once outdoor socializing creates its bump, there will be some analysis of how to release restrictions or restart portions of economic activity one-by-one strategically and fractionally.

However, that does not mean life as normal in the summer, or the fall, or any time before a vaccine (if we get a vaccine) or effective treatment. It means a new normal that respects a rampant virus and the risks of a partially exposed population to outbreaks and clusters. I picture that as somewhere between a lock down and a full and free life, with plenty of testing, contact tracing, and more specific and targeted instances of mandatory isolation... specifics will vary.

 

Locally I think we did achieve lowering patient numbers in hospitals from being at close to capacity already without CV19 to now having very little that isn’t CV19.  And that should help give a little margin to allow some carefully easing up on Stay Home restrictions over the summer. 

 

[SKL]

2 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

I havent' seen any states where the stay at home order applied to medical services. I just looked up Ohio, as a random one and it specifically says you can still leave home for anything related to health and safety. And that rehabilitation services are considered essential. I think a lot of what people are seeing is not that the government is prohibiting these things, but that the rehab companies/hospitals/etc have made that determination, for the safety of their workers. Or maybe liability. 

But lifting the stay at home orders won't fix that, because those orders were not what shut them down. 

In Ohio they shut because of "guidelines" (except for emergencies).  The logic being that they should not use scarce safety equipment.  Our psych therapist is also online only due to "guidelines," even though no safety equipment would normally be used in that context.  AFAIK nobody is getting dragged out and beaten for breaking the "guidelines," but I am not aware of any non-emergency in-person health services available right now.  Hopefully that will change soon.

[northcoast]

3 hours ago, Ottakee said:

OK, that was my soap box.  Again, I am NOT saying lets go out to big community parties, parades, and large group settings right away.  BUT......is there a way to work towards more normal life in the next few months?

 I haven't read all the responses here.  However, there is one doc who wrote a New York Times op-ed piece (March 20??) & has been giving interviews who is suggesting there is a way to "minimize harm" & opening society.  I think his interview is worth listening to no matter what you think should be done as he answers questions we all have in a calm manner.  It's very thought provoking, imho.

And here is his website: https://davidkatzmd.com/coronavirus-information-and-resources/

 

Edited April 22, 2020 by northcoast
can't proofread. :)

[Farrar]

I hate all the false choices that the "we must open soon!" camp keeps offering. If we end up on a roller coaster curve, it will not help the economy. And then all those problems you're worried about will still exist. Some will even be worse.

We can go back outside in a staged way over time. But people need a plan. Harvard's Roadmap to Pandemic Resilience was just released and this is what we need to do. Many of the coalitions of states are already trying to implement these sorts of steps. 

https://ethics.harvard.edu/covid-roadmap?fbclid=IwAR26VTvTmt7pbTrZFRkJiXie3lpvalEm6ieUmzN0zqhU0PVIMgdsNThsx04

[KathyBC]

10 minutes ago, square_25 said:

You know what's always full of doomsday predictions? Social media. And I have no idea how to get people to stop getting their news off of social media, but they really shouldn't. But that's not "them" moving any goalposts. That's people taking no care to be careful with their data. A collective action problem, so to speak. 

Where do people think news on social media comes from? It comes from the same places as everywhere else. Readers should absolutely assess the source, and actually read the full article, but the headline seen as they are scrolling by is what remains burned into people's thoughts .

[KathyBC]

I read four different articles from credible sources detailing the same press conference from our provincial health officer: two spun it as 'Wow, we may seem some restrictions lifted by mid-May' and two spun it as 'Nothing will change any time soon.' The way journalists filter the news is at least bearable in print. I cannot watch much televised news from any source.

[KathyBC]

3 hours ago, Farrar said:

My understanding was always that flattening the curve was step one, not a final goal.

Here's my understanding.

Step 1. Flatten the curve by staying inside as much as possible.
Step 2. Implement measures such as widespread testing and contact tracing as well as Covid patient isolation so that we can gradually re-open more and more businesses.
Step 3. Re-open but continue with some distancing measures and continue with testing, etc. The new world would be a little different. Fewer mass gatherings. More masks. More testing.
Step 4. Vaccine. As the vaccine is distributed, resumption of normal life, though hopefully with new pandemic response infrastructure.

Currently we're still in step 1, but we're pretty much there. Which means step 2 could begin in many areas. But many places haven't gotten enough tests or implemented infrastructure to support it. So... that's a problem. Because we want to get to step 3 as soon as possible and the longer step 2 takes, the worse it is.

Step 2 used to be part of step 1.

[SKL]

Yes, the media is willingly causing confusion and other things.  They always do.

I am so annoyed that I can't ever ever click on my local news station without the top story being "latest local COVID updates."  Every day all day for the past 1.5 months at least.  How much longer?  Apparently nothing else is happening in the entire world.  At least our authorities are not acting completely nuts, although they did severely sensationalize things at the early stage.

PS we are not and have never been a hot spot.

[Frances]

9 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

What about general check up ? I have a family history of diabetes, hypertension which is kept at bay by basically exercising. Now, pretty much everyone has slowed down exercising. These family walks are not cutting it, apps are not the same. So are we supposed to buy a BP monitor and a sugar testing kit like we have oximeters at home now ? How is one supposed to maintain their general health ? How are we supposed to maintain our children's health without actually seeing a doctor ? 

Many people I know are actually getting more exercise. I would think that anyone with a history of hypertension would have a home monitor. many insurance companies provide them for free. and you could communicate with your healthcare provider via phone if you had concerns. I know several people in multiple states who are continuing to have routine bloodwork. Lots of people are doing much more cooking which is generally healthier. Your concerns seem quite distant and not immediate. Unless you were borderline right before this started, It’s unlikely you’ve developed diabetes in the last six weeks. Plus, I’m sure you know what you need to be doing to prevent it, given your family history.  It’s not like you won’t be able to see a doctor for the next year or two. As for maintaining your children’s health, do what you always do to optimize their health. If you have concerns, you can always contact their provider.

[Frances]

8 minutes ago, SKL said:

Yes, the media is willingly causing confusion and other things.  They always do.

I am so annoyed that I can't ever ever click on my local news station without the top story being "latest local COVID updates."  Every day all day for the past 1.5 months at least.  How much longer?  Apparently nothing else is happening in the entire world.  At least our authorities are not acting completely nuts, although they did severely sensationalize things at the early stage.

PS we are not and have never been a hot spot.

We were one of the first steps hit and haven’t peaked yet and  the biggest state newspaper doesn’t even have a special virus section anymore and there are fewer stories everyday. I never watch news, so I can’t speak to that. and this is my only social media source.

[MercyA]

1 hour ago, beckyjo said:

Huh. We're exactly the opposite here. Story of 6 deaths in a week (including a person in their 20s) gets, "How many of them were from nursing homes?" or "Were there any flu deaths?". The one I really don't understand is  "It's all in Chicago - our hospitals are fine." as they are literally reporting the cases in THIS mostly rural county.

Same here in northern Indiana.

[ktgrok]

45 minutes ago, SKL said:

In Ohio they shut because of "guidelines" (except for emergencies).  The logic being that they should not use scarce safety equipment.  Our psych therapist is also online only due to "guidelines," even though no safety equipment would normally be used in that context.  AFAIK nobody is getting dragged out and beaten for breaking the "guidelines," but I am not aware of any non-emergency in-person health services available right now.  Hopefully that will change soon.

You can read the actual order here - and it specifically says that the order does NOT shut down medical offices, and that it does not want to be construed as interfering with healthcare. Section 7 is where that is. https://www.nbc4i.com/community/health/coronavirus/gov-dewine-extends-ohios-stay-at-home-order-until-may-1/

27 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

What about general check up ? I have a family history of diabetes, hypertension which is kept at bay by basically exercising. Now, pretty much everyone has slowed down exercising. These family walks are not cutting it, apps are not the same. So are we supposed to buy a BP monitor and a sugar testing kit like we have oximeters at home now ? How is one supposed to maintain their general health ? How are we supposed to maintain our children's health without actually seeing a doctor ? 

Telemedicine appointmnts are available everywhere. And in my area, despite having nearly 1K new cases a day in the county, we still have the ability to go to the doctor. But they are offering telemedicine to be safer for those that are okay with that. 

[Carrie12345]

What I see is the initial goal of flattening the curve, and then the goal of *keeping that curve below capacity. With 3 empty ICU beds in my county and around a dozen ventilators, that still seems like a pretty big, difficult goal with 1,000+ known cases.

My personal paranoia DOES go up when I hear about things like tattoo parlors being clear to open in another state this week. Tattoo. Parlors.  It absolutely makes me doubt people’s competence and fuels my fear that idiots will make the problem worse instead of better.  I’m ready to face plans for “gradual opening”, but with rational priorities and clear procedures.  (And continuing to have my own family SIP as much as possible.) The stories or, more frequently for me, the briefings that include proclamations with little Rhyme or reason are the crazy ones.

[kbutton]

1 hour ago, KeriJ said:

But as was mentioned in the post I quoted above, the general public doesn't seem to be getting it.  If you are on social media at all, the minute there is a headline about lifting any restrictions, 532 people comment that "we're going to kill everyone if we don't stay home for months longer!!!"  

 

1 hour ago, beckyjo said:

Huh. We're exactly the opposite here. Story of 6 deaths in a week (including a person in their 20s) gets, "How many of them were from nursing homes?" or "Were there any flu deaths?". The one I really don't understand is  "It's all in Chicago - our hospitals are fine." as they are literally reporting the cases in THIS mostly rural county.

Here we have a mix of comments consistent with both KeriJ and beckyjo, but we're not rural. There is a huge push to get out from under the "persecution" and "get our rights as citizens" back.

50 minutes ago, SKL said:

In Ohio they shut because of "guidelines" (except for emergencies).  The logic being that they should not use scarce safety equipment.  Our psych therapist is also online only due to "guidelines," even though no safety equipment would normally be used in that context.  AFAIK nobody is getting dragged out and beaten for breaking the "guidelines," but I am not aware of any non-emergency in-person health services available right now.  Hopefully that will change soon.

I don't know if psychs are a different tier of medical services in the guidelines, or if they are voluntarily moving to telehealth because they can. But telehealth services are definitely available even to people that normally can't access them or who are required by insurance to access telehealth through special providers, not the person they've been using.

32 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

How are we supposed to maintain our children's health without actually seeing a doctor ? 

I imagine this varies from state to state, but most providers here that needs labs from patients are still doing labs. Offices are still doing well-checks. Some are telehealth, but that's usually for people who don't need labs or shots. 

[kbutton]

5 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

Except of course where they are not.  My DH tried to get a hold of his doc for like ANYTHING the first couple weeks of this to discuss both his hip and his BP meds.  And not only did no one ever answer, no one bothered to call back in spite of a specific message saying they were listening to messages and calling people.  

He ended up going to Little Clinic at Kroger in order to get his BP med script renewed because telemedicine wasn't available for him.  

That doesn't mean his doc can't. It means the doc won't. Some offices are also terrible getting back to people. They may also be fielding a million extra calls with people asking questions outside the normal amount. 

[kbutton]

3 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

So how do you when to go for labs ? Just call your doctor and they will decide if the appointment is telemedicine or in person ? 

My husband is the one that had an appointment. They called him and told him he needed to come in person because they were doing labs. This particular office does their own draws. 

Every office that has been expecting us for something called us and told us what the new plan was.

For something "new," you'd just have to ask when you schedule an appointment. I am sure they're walking people through this a million times per day. 

[ktgrok]

4 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

Except of course where they are not.  My DH tried to get a hold of his doc for like ANYTHING the first couple weeks of this to discuss both his hip and his BP meds.  And not only did no one ever answer, no one bothered to call back in spite of a specific message saying they were listening to messages and calling people.  

He ended up going to Little Clinic at Kroger in order to get his BP med script renewed because telemedicine wasn't available for him.  

 

If you go to your insurance website they likely have a telemedicine option for urgent care and other issues. Mine does - a teledoc appointment is $15. Teledoc takes many insurances. And they and DocOnDemand and others also do cash pay appointments. 

For blood pressure you can go to a drug store or many grocery stores and have it checked on the machine. A blood sugar monitor can be purchased at Walmart or any pharmacy. 

2 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

We do not have a BP monitor. I don't monitor it. Not even sugar. I never thought I should ,depending on yearly exams. 😳. We have definitely slowed down in stress and lifestyle, we cook only at home now. Try to eat healthy always. Lots of salad, raw vegetables though before.Less salad, more cooked vegetables now, but more carbs have crept in. But I am working out less. I used to swim a lot, now nothing Group classes, equipment. The gym lifestyle is hard to produce at home. I am big on social distancing and know gyms can't open, so I need to find something.

For blood pressure you can go to a drug store or many grocery stores and have it checked on the machine. A blood sugar monitor can be purchased at Walmart or any pharmacy. 

Daily Burn, Beach Body On Demand, etc etc are available to stream to your TV. 

[Corraleno]

23 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

Bill Maher is pretty notorious for creating straw men.  scary about

And yeah...anything discussion of a medical condition will have lots of coulds, maybes, and mights. 

I laughed out loud when he said the media need to stop showing that "scary" picture of the virus. Obviously we have different definitions of "scary."  

Reports where politicians say "there are more important things than living," pundits claim the number of deaths don't matter because "those people are on their last legs anyway," and protestors admit they are willing to "sacrifice the weak" to get what they want? Those scare the hell out of me.

[Meriwether]

The goalposts have absolutely been moved. I think the powers that be knew they wouldn't get buy in if they had said months at the beginning, especially if they had said many months. If you wanted to, you could go back and see the change of language on this board. And, no, I am not going to look for links.

My area is just beginning to have an increase in cases. I think we will be hit hard in the next couple of weeks. Hopefully not too hard, but we won't know until we weather it. After the worst has past here locally, we (my family) will evaluate how to proceed. We will continue to be careful, but I doubt we will be as limited as we are now.

[ktgrok]

9 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

Actually, having looked it up for DD11’s dog bite (which was prior to his med running out) our insurance didn’t have such a thing.  They do and always have had a nurses 800 number but past experience with that tells me that their answer is always some version of “we can’t help with that you need to be seen with someone in person.”

certainly that could have chances now, but my trust in the “nurse line” is that it’s pretty useless.  

Oh, I agree about the nurse line. For liability reasons they always just say to go see someone. 

Definitely check out Teledoc, Doc on Demand, etc and see if any of them take your insurance. 

[SKL]

40 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

You can read the actual order here - and it specifically says that the order does NOT shut down medical offices, and that it does not want to be construed as interfering with healthcare. Section 7 is where that is. https://www.nbc4i.com/community/health/coronavirus/gov-dewine-extends-ohios-stay-at-home-order-until-may-1/

Telemedicine appointmnts are available everywhere. And in my area, despite having nearly 1K new cases a day in the county, we still have the ability to go to the doctor. But they are offering telemedicine to be safer for those that are okay with that. 

You cite the order that extends to May 1.  The medical offices shut (except for emergencies) based on an earlier order.  The governor has made a long series of orders gradually picking off one thing after another.  None of them is opening back up based on the order you cited.

Telemedicine won't help with our dental issues, nor the mammogram I need to schedule, nor a lot of other things.  We are using it for psych appointments and while it costs the same as an in-person visit, the experience is not comparable.

[Valley Girl]

14 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

Actually, having looked it up for DD11’s dog bite (which was prior to his med running out) our insurance didn’t have such a thing.  They do and always have had a nurses 800 number but past experience with that tells me that their answer is always some version of “we can’t help with that you need to be seen with someone in person.”

certainly that could have chances now, but my trust in the “nurse line” is that it’s pretty useless.  

That's been my experience with nurse lines. For us (others may have different experiences) they have been a total waste of time.

[sassenach]

4 hours ago, athena1277 said:

Where I live, we’ve flattened the curve to the point that the largest hospital system has cut hours or furloughed over 2,000 employees.  That was over a week ago.  To me, that’s the point where things should have started reopening.  There’s no reason to continue with stay at home orders.  I don’t mean we should start having large gatherings, but let’s start working towards normal.

Our major hospital system announced a hiring freeze through July of 2021.

[SKL]

Nobody would have thought that cuts in medical services and jobs would result from this situation, I don't think.  Temporary waiting for equipment, I could understand, but that isn't what this sounds like, at least not everywhere.

[Pen]

Depends on location.

NZ can achieve eradication as an island country probably.

Many other places the goal is flatten curve, and then keep it at a fairly flat ripple as there is easing up (and tightening down if necessary) so that medical system can handle it. 

Some places in world are probably not going to bother to try to do either, for example, Malawi is apparently going to just let it run its course since there is not much of a medical system in first place.  UK seemed to be going to try that direction but I think as system started go into overwhelm changed mind.  I suppose also that having some prominent people get it made a difference—it wasn’t just old people in nursing homes. 

 

[meena]

Regarding willful ignorance vs. confusion: 

I don't normally use Yahoo for anything, news-related or other, but since it was mentioned here I decided to go down the rabbit hole. There's a banner at the top of the page in orange/red that says, "U.S. death toll surpasses 45K; CDC director issues warning about second wave". Yes, that is just factual data. It's important so it doesn't seem too overly dramatic to have it take top spot and in a red banner. It's a clickable link, so I went to that page.

I scroll down the page to look at the current update bullet list. This bullet catches my interest: "As some areas of the U.S. begin relaxing social distancing restrictions, a new poll showed a majority of Americans fear easing those guidelines could result in more deaths." I'm interested in this because many people I know IRL have expressed interest in opening things back up, cautiously of course. I haven't really heard of fear regarding an incremental approach, so I'm curious about this poll saying it's the majority of Americans. Clicking on the link just takes me to an article about what plans various states are putting in place, but there's no mention of the poll or fear referenced in the teaser text.

I go back to the corona update page and scroll down quite a bit. There's a headline about a poll but no indication that it's the poll mentioned above: "New poll: States earn more praise for outbreak response". No mention of fear in the headline or short description, but I click on it since it does address state response. I click to see the article about this poll. The article features a large graph image at the top. Only if you scroll to the third graph do you see statistics about "widespread worry". This doesn't address fear, so maybe it's a different poll. It's hard to tell. The poll surveyed 1057 people in all 50 states + DC. That's roughly 20 people per state/district, although I realize it could have been done relative to state population since it's supposed to be a representative sample. That seems like a low number surveyed to make the conclusions of "All Americans" think x, y, or z. I know statistical samples can use small numbers if they are an accurate cross-section, but after going to the source of the poll (AP-NORC) and reading their methodology, it doesn't seem great. But then again, I took statistics many years ago, so what do I know. I'm confused as to whether this is the poll that was used to write that "a majority of Americans fear easing the guidelines". 

All of this to say, the news can be very confusing. In just this one instance, a news source says in a prominent place that most people fear easing guidelines. But it doesn't follow through in explaining that assertion so I don't know where it's coming from, if it's valid, whether to take it with a grain of salt given what I'm hearing IRL, and so on. I have a degree in English and have work experience in research and analysis/synthesis of various text sources, yet found it hard to analyze just this one news thread. I think about relatives who would just look at the headline, be like, "Ok, sure" and not even bother to see if there's any credence to what is being posited. That may be willful ignorance, but if the information is that difficult to get down to brass tacks I think the responsibility is on the shoulders of the journalist and media outlet rather than the average educated reader.

[Jean in Newcastle]

1 hour ago, Dreamergal said:

What about general check up ? I have a family history of diabetes, hypertension which is kept at bay by basically exercising. Now, pretty much everyone has slowed down exercising. These family walks are not cutting it, apps are not the same. So are we supposed to buy a BP monitor and a sugar testing kit like we have oximeters at home now ? How is one supposed to maintain their general health ? How are we supposed to maintain our children's health without actually seeing a doctor ? 

Doctors do check ups still through telemedicine. People can absolutely eat healthy foods and exercise. There are tons of free exercise videos etc made available to people. 

[bolt.]

13 minutes ago, Meriwether said:

The goalposts have absolutely been moved. I think the powers that be knew they wouldn't get buy in if they had said months at the beginning, especially if they had said many months. If you wanted to, you could go back and see the change of language on this board. And, no, I am not going to look for links.

My area is just beginning to have an increase in cases. I think we will be hit hard in the next couple of weeks. Hopefully not too hard, but we won't know until we weather it. After the worst has past here locally, we (my family) will evaluate how to proceed. We will continue to be careful, but I doubt we will be as limited as we are now.

Interesting.  I think the different geographic locations are a serious factor, but, for us, when they closed the schools (effectively the beginning of our various restrictions) the narrative was clearly months.

On fact, the thinking at one point was that they didn't know if they should close schools *because* if it was bad enough to close them, it was pretty clear that it was going to be for the entire school year. (So, initially, they thought they might hold off.) This was mid-march, and even though our numbers were low, we had the advantage of seeing the progress in other parts of the world and our country, which helped us see that a few weeks wasn't really what we were looking at. They did close them after a weekend of dithering, and called parents in for student belongings, and shut them down with the expectation of months. Other restrictions followed shortly.

I wonder if our original understanding of 'unknown duration but probably quite a while' helped us cope without the sense of bait-and-switch.

[kbutton]

41 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

Well, or both.  It could just mean that they can’t, because they had nothing in place and don’t know how to set it up with everything else going on and didn’t think that, given the changing dates, that they thought they would need to figure it out  (oh, we will be back in two weeks, it’s not worth it to set all this up for just 2wks)

 

Sure, but I thought the gist was the it was part of the orders. Maybe you were just venting. It's not like it's a smooth process that everyone knows about, that's for sure! I haven't had to do this yet, I just know that a lot of doctor's offices aren't interesting in it or in e-scripting either, both of which are often a lot easier for everyone.

[meena]

10 minutes ago, bolt. said:

Interesting.  I think the different geographic locations are a serious factor, but, for us, when they closed the schools (effectively the beginning of our various restrictions) the narrative was clearly months.

On fact, the thinking at one point was that they didn't know if they should close schools *because* if it was bad enough to close them, it was pretty clear that it was going to be for the entire school year. (So, initially, they thought they might hold off.) This was mid-march, and even though our numbers were low, we had the advantage of seeing the progress in other parts of the world and our country, which helped us see that a few weeks wasn't really what we were looking at. They did close them after a weekend of dithering, and called parents in for student belongings, and shut them down with the expectation of months. Other restrictions followed shortly.

I wonder if our original understanding of 'unknown duration but probably quite a while' helped us cope without the sense of bait-and-switch.

That type of thinking didn't occur in my area*. When K-12 schools remained closed after spring break, there was initially no talk of not reopening this school year. As late as April 10, my state governor was discussing schools potentially reopening in late May even if only for a couple weeks, even after many states had announced not coming back. It wasn't until 4 days ago that he officially made the announcement to not reopen. The local community college went to online classes only after spring break, and announced about a little bit later that they would be online through the end of the spring semester and summer as well, so they were a little ahead of our K-12 information and more forward-thinking. But I know a lot of people were holding out hope to resolve things in just a month or two, not months. 

*Editing to say: I'm sure it did occur for some people in some (or even many) instances. I'm talking more about the general sense and tone in my area, at least initially.

Edited April 22, 2020 by meena

[bolt.]

12 minutes ago, meena said:

That type of thinking didn't occur in my area*. When K-12 schools remained closed after spring break, there was initially no talk of not reopening this school year. As late as April 10, my state governor was discussing schools potentially reopening in late May even if only for a couple weeks, even after many states had announced not coming back. It wasn't until 4 days ago that he officially made the announcement to not reopen. The local community college went to online classes only after spring break, and announced about a little bit later that they would be online through the end of the spring semester and summer as well, so they were a little ahead of our K-12 information and more forward-thinking. But I know a lot of people were holding out hope to resolve things in just a month or two, not months. 

*Editing to say: I'm sure it did occur for some people in some (or even many) instances. I'm talking more about the general sense and tone in my area, at least initially.

Yeah, I'm talking about "sense and tone" too. There hasn't been an official announcement that reopening schools is out of the question -- just that it is unlikely, and it "felt" unlikely to resume for at least a month or two, possibly more, from the beginning. It wasn't announced that way, it was announced as "indefinite" (and I think, technically, that's still the word).

Edited April 22, 2020 by bolt.

[meena]

Just now, square_25 said:

I don't think there's any reason to count the number per state. If you sample randomly (that's the big if; sampling randomly is hard), then 1000 people is plenty. 

I know that it is possible statistically. But it was really difficult for me, an average person with one college stats class under my belt, to figure out how random their sample was. I know from your other posts that you have much more knowledge about math and statistics than I do, so if I knew you IRL and I actually cared about the stats of the poll used in this piece, I would try to find out if it was indeed a good sample. There are so many statistics thrown out in the news and media, though, to back up big over-arching claims, that it's hard to know what is accurate and what is potentially a stretch for the average reader. I'm not saying their poll sample is bad or not bad; just that it's hard for most people to even figure that out. So they just read the headline and don't dig much past that.

[Carol in Cal.]

I know a good dentist serving the Silicon Valley area who is still open.  My own dentist is not, but I would confidently go to this other one if I felt like it was urgent.  If you want the name, LMK and I'll figure out how to get it to you.  I don't want to post it here.

[meena]

6 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

I read online articles. I guess I don't know if that's "newspapers" or not, but I'm not seeing tons of panic porn. That's why I asked for an example. 

I think lots of people make stuff up, yes. Or someone writes an uninformed blog post and passes it on. I don't think most of that stuff comes from reputable organizations. 

The example I gave was right from Yahoo News. Not what I would consider a source for hard-hitting journalism, but also not a blog post or social media. I would consider it relatively reputable. I wouldn't elevate what I posted about to the level of panic-inducing (sorry I won't use that other term), but I think there is a narrative there in the headlines suggesting fear but then not explaining or fully justifying it.

[meena]

1 minute ago, StellaM said:

 

Public health programs were rolled out pretty quickly here in the form of ads re caring for your physical and mental health during a period of partial lockdown. Very simple, very easy to understand, even if you didn't speak English due to the graphics used, very pertinent. 

More people have been exercising during our partial lockdown than before, partly because it's been one way to break the monotony, and get out of doors.

Bike sales are through the roof. 

I've had telemedicine appointments over the last 4 weeks too. 

I'm so thankful that our local parks have stayed open for exercise and fresh air. In the next county over, they have been closed for a few weeks. Some areas of my state reopened public beaches for limited hours with law/park enforcement supervision. There were pictures circulated of people going there, and Twitter shamed them and gave them their own disparaging trending hashtag. Reports from the mayors of that beach area said the reality is that people were actually following guidelines well and no arrests or citations were needed. I'm hoping that it will go well so that our beaches may open back up as well.

[maize]

19 minutes ago, StellaM said:

 

Elimination, and then very strict border controls until a safe, effective mass vaccination program exists, along with co-operation with other 'virus extinguished' nations, is a possibility in some countries, like NZ. 

It's a possibility in AU also, but the poltical will isn't behind it as a strategy, even though we're almost there.

 

Island countries have a definite advantage if elimination is a goal!

The smaller the country the more manageable.

NZ is doing great, I do think it would be possible in Australia. Don't think it is a viable option here.

Maybe not even desirable as it can contribute to fear of and antagonism towards people perceived to be foreigners; that's become a major issue in China as the government narrative there is that the virus was eliminated domestically and any new cases must trace back to re-importation by people coming from outside the country. People who are not ethnic Chinese are being targeted and harassed. We've already got more than enough distrust of foreigners issues in this country.

Edited April 22, 2020 by maize

[Frances]

2 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

Just because X article or Y media blurb doesn't specifically say X or Y, that doesn't meant they and/or their headlines don't confuse people.  THAT is specifically my point.  It's not willful ignorance, its confusion.  

 

The truth is there is SO MUCH media coming at all of us, and really, once you actually read most of it, so much if it is really just a giant nothingburger.  It's all so full of mights and coulds and maybes and such.  And much of it is deliberately worded and crafted to scare the hell out of people.  Bill Maher used the phrase "panic porn."  Yeah, I think much of the media is engaging in panic porn.  

It shouldn't be a shock that all of it is really confusing to a lot of people.  

You make it sound as though people have no control over their media consumption and are simply helpless in the face of a media onslaught. I don’t think that is true. Sure, there’s lots of clickbait crap out there. But there is always the option to ignore it and choose one or two trusted sources for your news. It continues because people support it and it was no different before the pandemic.

[Frances]

1 hour ago, Meriwether said:

The goalposts have absolutely been moved. I think the powers that be knew they wouldn't get buy in if they had said months at the beginning, especially if they had said many months. If you wanted to, you could go back and see the change of language on this board. And, no, I am not going to look for links.

My area is just beginning to have an increase in cases. I think we will be hit hard in the next couple of weeks. Hopefully not too hard, but we won't know until we weather it. After the worst has past here locally, we (my family) will evaluate how to proceed. We will continue to be careful, but I doubt we will be as limited as we are now.

I think because it is an ever evolving situation with lots of moving parts, no one could actually predict at the very beginning how long things would go on like they are now. it is a novel virus after all and the US was woefully unprepared.

[MEmama]

1 hour ago, bolt. said:

Interesting.  I think the different geographic locations are a serious factor, but, for us, when they closed the schools (effectively the beginning of our various restrictions) the narrative was clearly months.

On fact, the thinking at one point was that they didn't know if they should close schools *because* if it was bad enough to close them, it was pretty clear that it was going to be for the entire school year. (So, initially, they thought they might hold off.) This was mid-march, and even though our numbers were low, we had the advantage of seeing the progress in other parts of the world and our country, which helped us see that a few weeks wasn't really what we were looking at. They did close them after a weekend of dithering, and called parents in for student belongings, and shut them down with the expectation of months. Other restrictions followed shortly.

I wonder if our original understanding of 'unknown duration but probably quite a while' helped us cope without the sense of bait-and-switch.

This is how it was in my state as well. While the schools gave a tentative initial date for reassessing, it was completely obvious they would be closed for the remainder of the year. With everything that was known and happening by mid March, I can’t imagine how anyone could have thought otherwise.

I haven’t seen any evidence anywhere of a bait and switch or moving the goalposts.

Edited April 23, 2020 by MEmama