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Bluegoat last won the day on October 30 2018

Bluegoat had the most liked content!

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About Bluegoat

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  • Birthday 08/10/1976

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  1. No, what I've said, from the beginning, and more than once, is that the goal is to flatten the curve in order to not overwhelm health services, until there is herd immunity, and that it is not good for those with serious risk factors, as well as for many other reasons, to try and flatten it beyond that. And that the goal is herd immunity if it is possible, and that if so the expectation is that about 80% of people will have to have the virus to achieve that. How long that would mean spreading it out is unclear and will depend on your health services anyway. I suggested a few posts back t
  2. Yeah, that's not really what I was suggesting, it was a follow on from the post I was responding to which was about how people behave.
  3. I don't mean distancing just after he shops, I mean distancing from him altogether. As in, you don't touch him at all, you don't get closer than six feet from him, you don't sleep in the same bed. Some health care workers here, if they have vulnerable family members, are living separately in airbnbs, not seeing their kids. Most people who are just higher risk, say with obesity, or asthma, aren't doing that stuff. But for the most vulnerable that's the recommendation. I don't know if it amounts to lip service, but that level of isolation can really only be maintained for a short time IMO
  4. Look, I am not sure what you are arguing here. Herd immunity at a level that doesn't overwhelm health care means not so many dead at once, that's the point. No one is saying that some measures won't carry on, but they are not going to be able to be maintained at the higher level they have been long term. And that means there will still be transmission, more than under current restrictions, until either there is vaccination, or immunity, or maybe we will have to get used to them permannenly. Keep in mind that the most significant restrictions may be the ones it's most difficult to keep up long
  5. I think you are right about lack of trust in the information. It's become a problem in so many areas. And lack of trust in government tends to cause elevated reactions and I think contributes toward things like hoarding. If you can't trust the larger social structure it quickly becomes every person for themselves. I'm not sure it's all about trusting that most will be fine if they get sick though that must help a lot. But I think the people I know who are most calm see it more in terms of - there are many things I could die from, and this is just one of them, one day, it will be one thi
  6. Most churches here closed, or as good as closed, before restrictions on meetings. Restrictions are that no groups larger than 5 and two meters apart, some some churches are having tiny services (like, minister and organist or something like that) and broadcasting them, or even just doing them without broadcasting them.
  7. So, I've asked my relative just now what the numbers they are anticipating are. He said 30% of the population in the next year, 60% in the next apox. 24 months. But a lot will depend on whether there is immunity, and that will become clearer as they begin to open things up again. Also, it's possible a second or third wave of infection might be worse than the first. If there is total immunity, some of the models say that after the initial group of those who become ill die, there will be a general population immunity, the virus will just be around but most will be immune.
  8. It's not really an "even if" discussion though. What's the other option? It's not under our control, it's a virus. Even with people washing hands, working at home, not travelling, and all the rest, there is still transmission. Are you suggesting we go for a complete quarantine until, and if, we manage to find a vaccine? It seems to me like you are saying that because this is too many deaths, we can't allow that, but I'm not sure why you think we can control it. We don't manage to control many illnesses. And how would you plan to manage the problems created by maintaining long t
  9. Sure, I'm not suggesting that it is a given. Local situation plus what you might call national character plays a role. I was really just saying that here, the impression many people seem to have is that the measures are meant to prevent transmission altogether. When I've talked to people on the US or UK, there seems to be a similar group of people who are understanding it the same way - their response might be different, but that seems to be the impression a lot of people are getting from the way things are being described. ETA: I think your idea about washable stuff is interestin
  10. Well, it's what most jurisdictions are anticipating even with the social distancing measures. They are still expecting to have a herd immunity situation at the end of it, so something like 80% or more who have caught it. The most vulnerable people, ie people on immuno-suppresent drugs and the very fragile, those in care homes, etc are here not being told to do just those things. They are being told that if they want to avoid infection they need to completely quarantine. For example if their spouse goes out to do the shopping, they need to social distance from their spouse in their own hom
  11. It depends on where you live - some places have managed and hit peak without overwhelming services or are anticipating that they will. Others even with very strict care will not manage. A lot depends on the state of the health system to start and how far ahead they were able to plan. Unfortunately if you are in the sort of place where services will be overwhelmed they will have some hard decisions to make about things like triage, because they won't eliminate transmission. They can only keep measures in place until the worst is over. ETA: All that is still an attempt to flatten the cur
  12. Yeah, I don't try and get colds, but they are horribly contagious and there is no vaccine, so I know I will get them from time to time. People modelling how the common cold behaves are also going to count on everyone getting it eventually because that's just realistic. People where I live are really very good about complying, the main group we see not doing it has been teenagers and that's because they are teenagers. But we've had some problems in the other direction, like people reporting neighbours, or getting angry because people were doing things they thought were wrong even thoug
  13. The original question in the OP was, is the goal to flatten the curve, or eliminate covid. I think you have to read the answers in that context. Flattening the curve was always meant to get us to herd immunity. But a lot of people are behaving (in the world, not here) as if the goal now is to eliminate it, or at least stop many people from ever getting it.
  14. Trying to slow spread to better understand the biology of the virus doesn't particularly seem to be a concern for the doctors and scientists making the plan. I know data is a concern - one of my relatives that's involved in covid management is mainly a data person and so that's something she is really concerned with along with projections of different scenarios, and they are adapting as new information becomes available, but my sense is that's just not part of a realistic approach. They are already trying to slow down transmission in order to avoid overwhelming health services. IN any case if
  15. Yes, that is a concern, though they seem to think there is a really good chance that there is going to be at least partial immunity. But we can't really control that, it's just a matter of finding out as it becomes clear. If there is no immunity than none of the strategies being used will work, everyone is going to need to come up with a new plan. To some extent the economists are right, and the behaviourists - we can shut down some things short term that cannot be shut down long term, so if there is no herd immunity we likely won't be able to prevent it going round altogether. I actually t
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