wuhan - coronavirus

[Ausmumof3]

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/how-is-this-possible-researchers-grapple-with-covid-19s-mysterious-mechanism?__twitter_impression=true
 

another article on the blood clotting issues.  I honestly think this is going to be the key to the whole thing if they can work out what’s actually going on.  

[Pen]

14 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/how-is-this-possible-researchers-grapple-with-covid-19s-mysterious-mechanism?__twitter_impression=true
 

another article on the blood clotting issues.  I honestly think this is going to be the key to the whole thing if they can work out what’s actually going on.  

 

I wonder how this differs from a more typical “cytokine storm” or sepsis situation.  

 

[Shoeless]

I don't know if anyone has seen this, but worldometers is starting to break down US states by county, with graphs.  

Worldometers US

[Negin]

5 hours ago, Arcadia said:

@Negin@Halftime Hope@MEmama@MeaganS@TCB
“Blood Pressure Medicines Don’t Increase COVID-19 Risk”
News link https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200501/blood-pressure-medicines-dont-increase-covid-risk

Study Links:

Renin–Angiotensin–Aldosterone System Blockers and the Risk of Covid-19 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006923

Renin–Angiotensin–Aldosterone System Inhibitors and Risk of Covid-19 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2008975

Cardiovascular Disease, Drug Therapy, and Mortality in Covid-19 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007621

 

Thank you so much. This is so reassuring. 

[Ausmumof3]

looks like Bali may be having problems after all 😞 

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/02/new-york-nursing-home-reports-98-coronavirus-deaths-in-horrifying-outbreak?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true

About midway through this article is mentions a hamlet that’s locked down with 400/1200 tests providing an initial positive result that requires follow up testing.

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

The giant disinfection trucks are making an appearance in Russia now.  Is there actually any logic behind this or is it just about making a show of doing something?

[Arcadia]

Whole Foods https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-owned-whole-foods-gives-free-masks-to-shoppers-2020-4 

“Amazon-owned Whole Foods will soon provide free disposable masks to customers visiting its stores, the companies said Thursday. 

Whole Foods is also requesting that customers wear masks in its stores, it said.

The masks will be available to customers within the next week, Amazon said in a blog post. 

"To help protect the safety and health of our Team Members and communities, we will be requesting customers wear masks in Whole Foods Market stores," the company said. "Within the next week, we will be offering free, disposable masks to all Whole Foods Market customers nationwide when they arrive at the store to shop. If customers don't already have their own face covering, they will be able to pick up a mask at the entrance of the Whole Foods Market store."”

Edited May 3, 2020 by Arcadia

[Halftime Hope]

I haven't read through this whole topic, so forgive me if this has been mentioned, but  MedCram on YouTube is head and shoulders above all the rest of medical information sources.  (I listen to JAMA as well.) Dr. Seheult is a pulmonologist and intensivist and regularly works in the ER in a hospital in California.   He has had extensive coverage of the mechanisms of COVID, covers the key data and studies coming out, and always, always links journal articles that reference whatever he is talking about.  He has also covered supplements and non-pharma interventions, i.e. how did docs treat patients before we had medication?  (He looked extensively at the 1918 pandemic and lessons learned from that. In fact, he has a hydrotherapy routine he does daily, as there is reliable data that it increases ?neutrophil? activity....sorry, I can't remember precisely, but it is a researched and proven treatment that inhances the innate immune system.

On top of that, he is a master educator, so it's a really helpful source!

The other channel that has been interesting but more focused on respiratory management is EMCrit.  It's been a good journey, and we are just at a pivot point.  It will be very interesting hearing how treatment changes, now that they are figuring out that the respiratory issues are really secondary to massive oxidative overload.  

Edited May 3, 2020 by Halftime Hope

[Halftime Hope]

15 hours ago, ElizabethB said:

Widely available on blogs, twitter. I've seen it often in various places starting last night and today, recommendations for Covid treatment from Eastern Virginia Medical School, Norfolk, VA.

They recommend preventative (prophylaxis) vitamin D, zinc, quercetin, melatonin, and vitamin C.

Prophylaxis doses, also care for doctors for later.

https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_public/departments/internal_medicine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdf

I had seen all the others mentioned but not melatonin, that is interesting.

 

Melatonin is connected to improved immune function through many, many studies.  My oncologist put me on 20mg every night 5 years ago and said to stay on it the rest of my life. 

[Jean in Newcastle]

For those who think that COVID 19 kills off those who were going to die soon anyway:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-kills-people-an-average-of-a-decade-before-their-time-11588424401

First line:  "People dying of COVID 19 could have expected to live on average for at least another decade, according to two studies that help fill in the developing picture of the human cost of the coronavirus pandemic."

[Matryoshka]

7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The giant disinfection trucks are making an appearance in Russia now.  Is there actually any logic behind this or is it just about making a show of doing something?

I have wondered that too.  It seems like outdoor surfaces, especially the ground and building walls, are not huge transmission problems, and mostly what this accomplishes is putting tons of disinfectant chemicals in the groundwater (or sewers, or wherever this runoff goes...)

[Halftime Hope]

8 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

For those who think that COVID 19 kills off those who were going to die soon anyway:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-kills-people-an-average-of-a-decade-before-their-time-11588424401

First line:  "People dying of COVID 19 could have expected to live on average for at least another decade, according to two studies that help fill in the developing picture of the human cost of the coronavirus pandemic."

 

My family is a prime example of that.  My husband just retired, he will be 64 in a few months, and he has long-standing underlying health conditions.  He would certainly be one of the people no statistician would shed a tear over.  But in reality, he is looking forward, hopefully, to living until grandchildren (our one granddd will be two in Aug, and another is "baking") are teens.  His goal is to know and be known, since he did not know 3 out of 4 grandparents.  (And both his grand-dads were men worth knowing, so for him, that was a huge loss as a child.)   So,as always, the personal, individual loss is excruciating for all these families.  

 

[ScoutTN]

23 hours ago, Happymomof1 said:

Hey I found out those numbers from Georgia that i posted are cummulative.  For some reason they never post people getting out of the hospital.  So their numbers for hospitalizations keep going up.  They never take people out of that section.  So their hospitalization numbers are really skewed.  No wonder they look like they have so many more hospitalized than Texas.  It isn't the amount hospitalized for right now.  It is cumulative.

TN posts the same way and it is unhelpful.  On my city's page we can see the % of available hospital beds and ICU beds bc they are part of the mayor's metrics for when reopening can move to the next stage. 

[kbutton]

1 hour ago, Matryoshka said:

I have wondered that too.  It seems like outdoor surfaces, especially the ground and building walls, are not huge transmission problems, and mostly what this accomplishes is putting tons of disinfectant chemicals in the groundwater (or sewers, or wherever this runoff goes...)

Some of the cleaning spray use in large venues or transportation hubs is electrolyte-based. I know that some companies in the US that have contracts to clean large venues are using the electrolyte spray, and I believe it has been used extensively in China. The person I heard this from works for an organization that employs people with intellectual disabilities on cleaning crews, and his organization's crews use the electrolyte cleaning solutions (he works to secure the cleaning venues and educates clients on the products used by the cleaning crew). They clean buses, churches, etc., but he said that a lot of large sports venues across the country use these cleaners as well. The cleaners are supposed to be environmentally friendly and effective for viruses. Commercial cleaners use a more concentrated version of the solution that kills things really fast (maybe less than two minutes?). Home units are less concentrated, and the solution needs to contact surfaces for ten minutes.

It's called GenEon if anyone is interested in more information. 

I have no idea if that's what's being used in Russia, or if it's effective outdoors though.

[Jean in Newcastle]

27 minutes ago, kbutton said:

Some of the cleaning spray use in large venues or transportation hubs is electrolyte-based. I know that some companies in the US that have contracts to clean large venues are using the electrolyte spray, and I believe it has been used extensively in China. The person I heard this from works for an organization that employs people with intellectual disabilities on cleaning crews, and his organization's crews use the electrolyte cleaning solutions (he works to secure the cleaning venues and educates clients on the products used by the cleaning crew). They clean buses, churches, etc., but he said that a lot of large sports venues across the country use these cleaners as well. The cleaners are supposed to be environmentally friendly and effective for viruses. Commercial cleaners use a more concentrated version of the solution that kills things really fast (maybe less than two minutes?). Home units are less concentrated, and the solution needs to contact surfaces for ten minutes.

It's called GenEon if anyone is interested in more information. 

I have no idea if that's what's being used in Russia, or if it's effective outdoors though.

They use that (or similar but the device looked the same) on our ambulances here. 

[Pen]

2 hours ago, Matryoshka said:

I have wondered that too.  It seems like outdoor surfaces, especially the ground and building walls, are not huge transmission problems, and mostly what this accomplishes is putting tons of disinfectant chemicals in the groundwater (or sewers, or wherever this runoff goes...)

 

That’s what I would think too.  Unless maybe it is ozonated water and breaks back down to water and oxygen. 

[Pen]

http://williams.medicine.wisc.edu/viral_coagulopathy_2012.pdf

coagulation problems with viruses

 

There’s a swine / porcine coronavirus that apparently causes blood agglutination problems in pigs btw. 

[73349]

Disinfecting sidewalks/fire hydrants/street signs seems like such a waste. People are not going around petting them. I think they'd do better to put energy into cleaning the air in grocery stores & other indoor essential places.

[TravelingChris]

20 hours ago, Pen said:

 

Sure .  And sometimes it isn’t even simulating or replicating in a lab.  For example, We have cascara sagrada growing here and it is still used for mainstream medical purposes. 

Digitalis, similar.  But it ends up very refined and standardized probably compared to in 18th century. 

Naturopaths use a bunch of different systems.  Homeopathy is one system that in someways is a bit akin to vaccines where a tiny amount of a substance elicits a reaction from the body sort of in the opposite direction...

 

Homeopathy is scientifically impossible---- My dh showed me that it the dilution is less than one molecule in our not very small pool and you get a small bottle of the stuff from that pool.

[Sk8ermaiden]

6 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

Homeopathy is scientifically impossible---- My dh showed me that it the dilution is less than one molecule in our not very small pool and you get a small bottle of the stuff from that pool.

 
Yes. Homeopathy is considered psuedoscience because it is pseudoscience by definition. It has not been rigorously tested by the scientific method and found to be effective. People pay for water or sugar and the placebo effect it illicits. 

[Pen]

6 minutes ago, Sk8ermaiden said:

 
Yes. Homeopathy is considered psuedoscience because it is pseudoscience by definition. It has not been rigorously tested by the scientific method and found to be effective. People pay for water or sugar and the placebo effect it illicits. 

 

I am aware of that.  😉

I have personally seen homeopathy do things including with animals — unlikely to be placebo responsive.  🤷‍♀️  Also, frankly, if I could get relief from very unpleasant symptoms of CV19, I really would not care I’d it is “placebo”.  Relief would be welcome. 😁.    

It was worked out initially by its own scientific system. And the standard western model is not necessarily the be all and end all of the world.   (Unless this does turn into apocalypse situation in which case maybe it is.) 

I would not recommend homepathy in place of standard repair of a broken arm or ______ something else (many things) where western medicine has something good to offer.  

If western medicine has got nothing or close to nothing (which afaik is currently the situation with CV19) and a few lactose balls might offer some relief when told to stay home in isolation because not sick enough for hospital?  For an amount of money less than most people on this thread probably spend on one Starbucks visit?   Sure.  Why not.   I would.  

(PS, look up “nosodes” type homeopathic treatments.” 😃) 

Obviously “your mileage varies”!   No problem 😊. 

 

[Sk8ermaiden]

6 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I am aware of that.  😉

 

I was responding to the poster who said she was surprised homeopathy was considered pseudoscience.

One thing I do heartily wish is that people (and even companies!) would stop using "homeopathy" and "natural remedy" interchangably. It confuses so many people, and I feel is dangerous. 

[TravelingChris]

19 minutes ago, Sk8ermaiden said:

I was responding to the poster who said she was surprised homeopathy was considered pseudoscience.

One thing I do heartily wish is that people (and even companies!) would stop using "homeopathy" and "natural remedy" interchangably. It confuses so many people, and I feel is dangerous. 

I totally agree with this.  Like I said earlier in the thread, Coldeeze claims to be homeopathic but has actual zinc in it  and zinc is not a poison but a necessary mineral.  Homeopathy uses incredibly dilute poisons (as I stated earlier, less than one molecule per backyard pool and you get a bottle of water from that pool) because of a belief that has basically disappeared since we learned more science by the early 1900s.  The previous belief was all about ether and stuff transferring reactions in some way different than through chemical or physical means-rather by this 'ether'.  And as Pen said, it is supposed to work like a vaccine so thereby very little bad stuff insulates your body from large amount of bad.  But things like zinc, arnica, etc, are actually used in preparations and not at homeopathic levels, but normal levels.

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

If schools aren't open until May 11, how did the kid bring it to school?

I think they are open for children of essential workers only.

[Ausmumof3]

ABC: One-third of 500 random coronavirus tests in Afghanistan's capital have come back positive, according to health officials, raising fears of widespread undetected infections in one of the world's most fragile states.

 

[Ausmumof3]

Abc - Victoria has confirmed a further 22 cases of coronavirus, including 19 linked to a Melbourne meat processing plant.

It brings the state's total of coronavirus cases to 1,406.

Aside from the cases linked to the abattoir, two of the new cases were returned overseas travellers who were quarantined in hotels.

One other case is still under investigation.

Premier Daniel Andrews said a record 13,000 Victorians were tested for coronavirus yesterday.

"More than we've seen on a single day in any part of the country throughout this whole pandemic," he said.

"I can't emphasise enough how pleased, how proud and how grateful I am."

The Government is aiming to test 100,000 Victorians to gather data to help them decide whether to lift some restrictions when the current State of Emergency ends on May 11.

Mr Andrews said 56,000 people had already been tested since the blitz began one week ago.

"It's a massive effort," he said. 

"Let's see what kind of virus story that tells."

The results of yesterday's tests would not be known for a couple of days, he said.

Mr Andrews thanked those Victorians who had given up their time to get tested, and reiterated that mobile testing units would come to people who could not travel to a testing site.

He said the more data the Government could collect now, the more "options" it would have when it came to relaxing restrictions.

"If you have not been tested and you have even the mildest of symptoms, please get tested," he said.

More to come.

Im not sure if this is just a feature of increased testing - finding more cases or if things are taken off.  I still have a bad feeling we’re patting ourselves on the back to early in Aus.  
 

also - yet more with the meat plants.  

[Lanny]

France will extend Covid-19 measures from May 11th until July 24th. Arriving passengers will be in Quarantine for 14 days. This is a proposal and not in concrete at this time.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/france-coronavirus-health-emergency-quarantine-travelers

 

[Pen]

2 hours ago, TravelingChris said:

I totally agree with this.  Like I said earlier in the thread, Coldeeze claims to be homeopathic but has actual zinc in it  and zinc is not a poison but a necessary mineral.  Homeopathy uses incredibly dilute poisons (as I stated earlier, less than one molecule per backyard pool and you get a bottle of water from that pool) because of a belief that has basically disappeared since we learned more science by the early 1900s.  The previous belief was all about ether and stuff transferring reactions in some way different than through chemical or physical means-rather by this 'ether'.  And as Pen said, it is supposed to work like a vaccine so thereby very little bad stuff insulates your body from large amount of bad.  But things like zinc, arnica, etc, are actually used in preparations and not at homeopathic levels, but normal levels.

 

Or... gently... maybe you misunderstand homeopathy (or rather are narrow in your understanding) and don’t realize that homeopathy can be used in a number of different ways— including that it uses a variety of different strengths and dilutions, depending upon the substance and situation 

So as you say sometimes the dilution is like a drop in a swimming pool.  But other times it is a quite tangible amount like with the coldeeze zinc example where it is in milligrams.  

It is fine for someone who is wanting a zinc lozenge with a certain amount of zinc to use coldeeze purely for its effective milligrams zinc aspect.  

And imo it is also fine for someone who feels the homeopathic preparation system is important,  to use it and to feel (and fine by me if it’s placebo, placebo is great if it works without harm) that it is more powerful and more helpful to promote the body’s own inner healing systems because of the homeopathic preparation method. 

 

 

[Pen]

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18479853/

One of a number of studies I have seen on the herb houttuynia (which is apparently used as a green in some Asian cuisine — @Arcadia). I am growing 3 plants of it and have not tasted it yet, but can see that the snails are attracted .  

( @Medicmom2.0 this is the herb I was wondering if your sister included.)

Edited May 4, 2020 by Pen

[Melissa in Australia]

4 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

It says something about Australia that you can open the schools like that and 97% of the families will do the right thing, and keep their kids home.   Or more than 97% since I imagine that the 3% is mostly families who really have no other choice.  

I think that we wouldn't see those numbers.   

Who is staffing the schools?

I believe the teachers are working at the schools and teaching using a combination of zoom etc. 

[SoCal_Bear]

3 hours ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

I can't keep up with this thread so forgive me is this has already been discussed. 

I'm starting to see people referring to the new CDC report to claim that deaths have been overstated and the risk is less than the flu. Has anything been published that discusses that report? I saw something on Twitter that it's is missing several weeks of deaths. 

 

I spent time from my life that I will not get back yesterday debunking this in FB. If it is the latest conspiracy theory that went viral about there being a massive overstating of deaths, it is about the Provisional Death Counts for COVID. I'm just going to copy and paste what I wrote on FB. I am smh over the fact that apparently people's ability to comprehend and read. Here is the link to the chart: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

There is a fundamental misunderstanding about how the provisonal death tables are compiled.

There is no automated way to tabulate deaths for CDC for 20% of deaths. They have to be manually processed. Usually takes 1 to 8 weeks to update under NORMAL processing times. There are certain death codes that are manually processed. Covid is one of them. The flu is another.

Info has to go from doctor>hospital>coroner>death certificate. Then that information goes to state reporting agency (57 of those) and then that goes to the CDC.
The wheels of government grind slowly.

80% of deaths are coded automatically. 20% are coded manually. The timing I described above is based their current operations. I would say the wheels are grinding ever slower right now.

So, long story short, this provisional table will ALWAYS run up to 2 months behind in accuracy because when they process they will add to dates for when deaths actually occur. This system was never designed for real time reporting.

The John Hopkins data is actually more accurate and closer to real time or the NYT compilation because they are getting information directly from county level reporting because of the public interest in real time data.

The notes are as written directly under the table in question:

NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. The United States population, based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, is 327,167,434.

*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

1Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1

2Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred (8).

3Pneumonia death counts exclude pneumonia deaths involving influenza.

4Influenza death counts include deaths with pneumonia or COVID-19 also listed as a cause of death.

5Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, pneumonia, or influenza, coded to ICD–10 codes U07.1 or J09–J18.9.

[Arcadia]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18479853/

One of a number of studies I have seen on the herb houttuynia (which is apparently used as a green in some Asian cuisine — @Arcadia). I am growing 3 plants of it and have not tasted it yet, but can see that the snails are attracted .  

Most dishes would taste good with chilli oil 😉 

https://www.laweekly.com/where-to-get-a-sichuan-herbal-salad/

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Arcadia said:

Most dishes would taste good with chilli oil 😉 

https://www.laweekly.com/where-to-get-a-sichuan-herbal-salad/

 

That sounds good!

the houttuynia greens are supposed to go well also with mushrooms some of which like shiitake and maitake also have medicinal qualities. 

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

It says something about Australia that you can open the schools like that and 97% of the families will do the right thing, and keep their kids home.   Or more than 97% since I imagine that the 3% is mostly families who really have no other choice.  

I think that we wouldn't see those numbers.   

Who is staffing the schools?

In my state (Sa) schools are fully open.  Most people I know have sent their kids back.  We’ve had zero cases for 11 days so they feel it’s low risks.  Homeschoolers are talking about getting together again.  Playgrounds opened today and we can have groups of 10.

In WA schools have been reopened and they have reported around 60 pc attendance.

Qld are opening next week for some grades but not others.

Vic are standing up to the federal government and keeping theirs closed except for essential workers

NSW wants all kids back by the end of May.

not sure about Tasmania

I personally think we’re being stupid and this decision will eliminate the vague hope we had of maintaining or eliminating the virus . I don’t think that’s totally true for my state.  It’s probably ok in the states with 0 cases for some time but if the other states outbreaks take off again it will most likely spill over here via trucked goods or travellers who don’t self isolate properly 

[Arcadia]

28 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

the houttuynia greens are supposed to go well also with mushrooms some of which like shiitake and maitake also have medicinal qualities. 

cordyceps. I used that for asthma while having a standby rescue inhaler. It is used mainly for respiratory ailments. 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/43133552_Effects_of_Cordyceps_extract_on_cytokines_and_transcription_factors_in_peripheral_blood_mononuclear_cells_of_asthmatic_children_during_remission_stage

Turkey Tail. I have probably tried this mushroom in a dish but not use it as a herb https://www.mskcc.org/cancer-care/integrative-medicine/herbs/coriolus-versicolor

https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/treatment/cam/hp/mushrooms-pdq#cit/section_2.22

 

[Melissa in Australia]

45 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

In my state (Sa) schools are fully open.  Most people I know have sent their kids back.  We’ve had zero cases for 11 days so they feel it’s low risks.  Homeschoolers are talking about getting together again.  Playgrounds opened today and we can have groups of 10.

In WA schools have been reopened and they have reported around 60 pc attendance.

Qld are opening next week for some grades but not others.

Vic are standing up to the federal government and keeping theirs closed except for essential workers

NSW wants all kids back by the end of May.

not sure about Tasmania

I personally think we’re being stupid and this decision will eliminate the vague hope we had of maintaining or eliminating the virus . I don’t think that’s totally true for my state.  It’s probably ok in the states with 0 cases for some time but if the other states outbreaks take off again it will most likely spill over here via trucked goods or travellers who don’t self isolate properly 

I agree, completely stupid. We should be working towards elimination and then keep out borders closed for at least 18 months until we see what happens re vaccine and or what happens on other countries 

[Ausmumof3]

0 cases day 12 for SA.  Number of people going for testing seems to be dropping a bit with only 500 odd tests.  They are asking people to go for any mild cold like symptoms.  They have started serology testing and did find one contact of a known case who hadn’t been tested had antibodies so I guess there has probably been some undetected cases.   

[JennyD]

Israel update:  Numbers are coming down very fast.  Very steep drop in new cases per day, testing positivity rate of 0.5%.  I don't quite understand why all of a sudden things started getting better so much more quickly than before, but then again maybe I've just lost track of time.

Things are starting to reopen, including some schools, and for the first time the Health Ministry (aka the Ministry of Doom) is on board with easing restrictions, so that is a very promising sign.

The theory, as I understand it, is that the virus has finally been driven to low enough levels that the health authorities do not really expect a sudden rise in numbers anytime soon, even if people start moving around again.  (Although of course that's a theory, hence the gradual easing and the constant warnings of imminent catastrophe)  They do expect that there will be further outbreaks, so the key is finding them and containing them quickly so the virus doesn't spread widely again.  Ongoing mask-wearing and some social distancing will help to prevent that, but the real key is going to be population surveillance and fast turnaround on testing.  Israel has done a good job ramping up the volume of tests but the processing is still too slow, and of course there's the ongoing statistical challenge of meaningfully testing low-incidence populations.  There are some interesting proposals coming out on that front.

It's all very nerve-wracking and the economy is just in shambles, but it does seem like the health authorities have had a good handle on things so far.  The government really needs to start throwing money out of helicopters ASAP, though. If the numbers stay low for the next couple of weeks things will start to recover, but people need cash yesterday and the existing structure isn't getting it to them fast enough.

Also, corrupt leaders everywhere take note!   Effective management of a crisis can keep you out of prison and in power.  

 

 

 

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by JennyD

[73349]

Update on me: Still symptomatic after 8 full weeks; don't qualify for a retest under state rules & don't qualify for an antibody test under makers' specs which require being asymptomatic the last 10 days 🤔; taking some prescriptions mostly to establish that they don't work, next telemed appointment on the 13th.

Update on NC: 99/100 counties have confirmed cases, more retailers asking customers to wear masks, Portuguese man o' war jellyfish providing additional incentive to stay home and off the beaches.

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, whitehawk said:

Update on me: Still symptomatic after 8 full weeks; don't qualify for a retest under state rules & don't qualify for an antibody test under makers' specs which require being asymptomatic the last 10 days 🤔; taking some prescriptions mostly to establish that they don't work, next telemed appointment on the 13th.

Update on NC: 99/100 counties have confirmed cases, more retailers asking customers to wear masks, Portuguese man o' war jellyfish providing additional incentive to stay home and off the beaches.

Hope you get better soon.  8 weeks is a long time to be sick. 

[JennyD]

whitehawk, so sorry that you are still feeling ill.  Hope you recover soon.

[Acadie]

Researchers in Boston have developed a test with 99 percent accuracy that shows levels of three antibodies to coronavirus. In order to determine exactly which types and levels of antibodies confer immunity, they're tracking people over time for reinfection, and expect results in 3-6 months.

This still feels like a ways away, and FDA approval or making it available in other states are separate issues, but it is reassuring to me to hear details on how medical researchers and private labs are moving forward in the absence of federal leadership. 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/05/03/nation/massachusetts-researchers-are-front-lines-coronavirus-antibody-testing/?et_rid=1940322526&s_campaign=todaysheadlines:newsletter

Galit Alter and colleagues at the Ragon Institute and MGH built a highly accurate antibody test and brought it to the Broad Institute, where automation will ramp up production. They’re running more than 1,000 tests a day for research purposes, and Alter hopes to hit 10,000 per day in a couple of weeks.

Many direct-to-consumer antibody tests look like pregnancy tests, offering a simple positive or negative result. But the Broad is running a more sophisticated test that shows the levels of three antibodies, Alter says, with 99 percent accuracy 14 days after the onset of symptoms.

“What we're hoping is that there's going to be an actual numerical number that will give us a cutoff of protection,” Alter said.

Combining those results with data from sero-epidemiology studies that track people over time, checking for any reinfection, Alter seeks to understand what level and quality of antibodies will confer immunity protection.

“The minute we have that information, then we can reenter society. Because that is all the knowledge we need,” said Alter, who estimated that such results could be three to six months away. “It’s not that long to wait and be able to — with actual data — say definitively if you go out there, you are going to be safe.”

Experts agree that antibody testing will ultimately need to be done on a mass scale to meet the needs of the marketplace. “Probably every Uber driver’s going to want to know if they’re infected, every restaurant’s going to want to have their people tested,” said Alter.

So even as policymakers seek federal guidance and FDA-approved antibody tests, researchers are exploring ways to make high-quality tests more widely available, including commercial collaborations.

“The problem is that there’s just no time; we can’t wait,” Alter said. “We need to build something now. Because if we wait for those guys to put out their perfect, FDA-approved tests, then we basically just watch the epidemic spread through the population, and we have no information.”

[Ausmumof3]

11 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

https://apnews.com/bf685dcf52125be54e030834ab7062a8
 

I guess it’s not paranoia if you’re right.  Sigh.

A new intelligence report from the Department of Homeland Security obtained by the Associated Press states that U.S. officials believe China covered up the severity of the coronavirus outbreak and the contagiousness of the disease in order to buy time to hoard medical supplies for itself at the expense of the rest of the world. 
 

There’s plenty of local reports here of stuff being sent.  Whether it was an intentional conspiracy or a stacking of individual cover ups plus profit motives plus just people protecting family etc the effect is the same.   
 

One of the big Aus cattle farms that was owned by a Chinese billionaire sold to an Australia family same day that China started talking about not importing Aus beef anymore.  Maybe just a coincidence.  Who knows?

[Wheres Toto]

Ugh, someone tell me that Florida isn't going to be as bad as it sounds?   I"m chatting online with my brother.  Because him and my sil are planning to go to a restaurant to eat today, because they are open.     He works for Disney and thinks the parks are going to open up June 1st.    He also thinks it was here in October so most people were already exposed, that beaches were open two weeks ago and there haven't been new cases so everything is fine, and that it's not as bad as some people think.   Oh yeah, and the heat will keep it from being bad there.

He also thinks he's low risk despite being extremely obese, very high blood pressure, high cholesterol and over 50.   Our chat has turned into me trying to make sure he's at least taking it seriously.   I haven't been following Florida particularly closely except occasional comments here.   Now, seeing on other threads that so many people with basically confirmed by xray/CT scan cases are NOT being counted, and convincing anyone seems hopeless.

[SKL]

1 hour ago, Arctic Mama said:

https://apnews.com/bf685dcf52125be54e030834ab7062a8
 

I guess it’s not paranoia if you’re right.  Sigh.

A new intelligence report from the Department of Homeland Security obtained by the Associated Press states that U.S. officials believe China covered up the severity of the coronavirus outbreak and the contagiousness of the disease in order to buy time to hoard medical supplies for itself at the expense of the rest of the world. 
 

I read that the US sent some equipment to help China before it hit seriously here.  So that does not surprise me - well, not much coming out of China is going to surprise me ....

[SanDiegoMom]

32 minutes ago, Where's Toto? said:

Ugh, someone tell me that Florida isn't going to be as bad as it sounds?   I"m chatting online with my brother.  Because him and my sil are planning to go to a restaurant to eat today, because they are open.     He works for Disney and thinks the parks are going to open up June 1st.    He also thinks it was here in October so most people were already exposed, that beaches were open two weeks ago and there haven't been new cases so everything is fine, and that it's not as bad as some people think.   Oh yeah, and the heat will keep it from being bad there.

He also thinks he's low risk despite being extremely obese, very high blood pressure, high cholesterol and over 50.   Our chat has turned into me trying to make sure he's at least taking it seriously.   I haven't been following Florida particularly closely except occasional comments here.   Now, seeing on other threads that so many people with basically confirmed by xray/CT scan cases are NOT being counted, and convincing anyone seems hopeless.

My family lives in Florida (sister and parents).  My sister has been very pro-opening. She asked my parents last night if they were planning to go out to eat tonight since restaurants are opening. My parents are in their 70's, mom with high blood pressure.  Wth.  

[Arcadia]

🙂 Santa Cruz https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/05/04/coronavirus-donor-thank-you-santa-cruz-hospital-1-million-dollar-donation/

 

“An anonymous thank you note left Dominican Hospital came with a $1 million donation with a request that the money be used for bonuses to the facility’s staff.

“To the heroes of Dominican Hospital: Thank you for standing up (and staying up!) to care for our community,” said the donor in a letter directed to hospital employees. “This humankindness is what makes you heroic. Please accept this donation in recognition of and with great thanks for all that you do. And please know that my heart is with you as we seek to protect and care for each other during this challenging time.”

The gift was designated entirely for employees — nurses, cleaning staff, lab techs, medical records, even mailroom staff and security guards who have worked at Dominican for at least a year are getting a bonus check. Full-time staff get $800, part-timers receive $600.

All employees who have met a threshold number of hours worked before March 1, 2020 will receive the check within the next 30 days.

“We cannot adequately express the depth of our gratitude for this gracious, selfless gift,” said Hospital president Dr. Nanette Mickiewicz in a statement. “We are incredibly proud of the work our hospital family is doing in the face of such an unprecedented situation. This generous donation is a testament to their clinical excellence, their tireless dedication and, most of all, their profound humanity.”

After weeks of hard work, nursing supervisor Amy Loudon said she was amazed at the generosity of a stranger, and especially appreciative it’s being shared with all employees this week.

“There are so many people who keep the hospital running. Nurses and doctors are getting the praise, but we couldn’t do it without the staff who clean the floors, deliver supplies, fix machines, everything. It’s a team, and I’m glad the whole team is getting a thank you,” she said.

As for her own bonus?

“I’m definitely going to spoil myself a little bit,” she said.

Which is probably why the anonymous $1 million do-gooder made the donation.”

 

[Arcadia]

@sassenach@mathnerd

My council member just sent a heads up that Goodwill is reopening their donation centers. 

[mumto2]

So Florida.......from my perspective.  It will all depend on people’s behavior I think.  So it could be bad but praying not.  Because we restrict by county I am hopeful we will close as need be quickly.  Testing is pretty available locally.....drive thru.   South Florida still has restrictions. Some counties in the boonies probably do not need many restrictions so I and many others are simply planning to watch and frankly pray that our area manages to stay loosened. If one listened to the Governor’s conference in Orlando the other day closely, the antibody/immunity rate in Orange County only appears to be around 1% from their testing......the testing number wasn’t large but thought to be broad enough to be close to accurate.  So circulating since October is doubtful imo.  First I heard that one.  We are in one of the neighboring counties.  Btw,I didn’t listen but have been told by several reliable friends that the 1% was said.

Beaches in our area have been continuously open for exercise.  We have been a few times.....had our walk, kids swam on a no jellyfish in sight days as I am hyper scared of allergic reactions in Covid times, and came home after an hour or so. I believe beaches actually opened officially last Thursday at midnight.....we accidentally went Friday not knowing they were open for sunbathing etc.  Behavior was actually good.....we still had our walk safely imo.  Beach cams looked much more crowded Saturday.  Haven’t checked today. The widely publicized Jacksonville beaches photos from a couple weeks ago were of opening for exercise I believe and heard from someone there after the first night were not crowded.

 I know we will not be eating in restaurants today and none of our neighbor’s/friends are planning to either so I don’t think everyone will be out to dinner tonight.  But think restaurants will be at capacity.  Think it’s only 25% fire code occupancy for the sit down.  Many restaurants doing curb side have been extremely busy....lots of people setting up card tables in pick ups to dine there.  It’s sort of cute in terms of life with Covid as people are going all out with nice china etc.   DD’s birthday is tomorrow and we would normally have a really nice meal out instead Whole Foods just delivered my ingredients for a far fancier meal than I have been providing lately.😉 Everything ordered arrived as ordered so woot!  First time that has happened.   I bought an ice cream cake before quarantine just in case so now am ready for a nice celebration.  Meals in general are now the day’s highlight.

My current biggest concern is churches can reopen to 50% capacity of fire code in my county.  Not sure regarding Orange.  My largish church feels like it has to.....once again we won’t be there.  Ugggg

I think Disney opening is one of those things everybody would love to see for the economy but is scared of too.  No one in my family works for the mouse so he may have special insider knowledge but here are my rumors.....They are taking reservations for June 1  still, I think.  But someplace I was given the impression that June 1 was an optimistic dream set near the start of this. Expected reality is maybe late summer/fall heard someplace.....if they open sooner it will be very limited, very local. It changes so I might not be up on the current. Have heard lots of optimistic Brits have June 1 reservations!  😞Which is so not happening, I hope, but international makes things impossible.  Here is some recent Disney news.....

 https://www.clickorlando.com/entertainment/2020/05/01/disney-world-will-reopen-in-2-phases-once-covid-19-crisis-subsides-according-to-report/

https://wdwnt.com/2020/05/wdwnt-weekly-recap-happy-anniversary-to-disneys-hollywood-studios-walt-disney-world-reopening-hope-star-wars-land-rumor-confirmed-and-more/

46 minutes ago, Where's Toto? said:

Ugh, someone tell me that Florida isn't going to be as bad as it sounds?   I"m chatting online with my brother.  Because him and my sil are planning to go to a restaurant to eat today, because they are open.     He works for Disney and thinks the parks are going to open up June 1st.    He also thinks it was here in October so most people were already exposed, that beaches were open two weeks ago and there haven't been new cases so everything is fine, and that it's not as bad as some people think.   Oh yeah, and the heat will keep it from being bad there.

He also thinks he's low risk despite being extremely obese, very high blood pressure, high cholesterol and over 50.   Our chat has turned into me trying to make sure he's at least taking it seriously.   I haven't been following Florida particularly closely except occasional comments here.   Now, seeing on other threads that so many people with basically confirmed by xray/CT scan cases are NOT being counted, and convincing anyone seems hopeless.

 

[vonfirmath]

On 5/1/2020 at 2:12 PM, TravelingChris said:

Oh I have lived in Chicago and Ohio and had no A/C and there were no cooling centers then.  I don't think we ever had a really hot spell in Chicago when we lived there.  We did in Ohio and I was pregnant and would take my 4 year old to the library or to a movie or to a store, etc.  

 

I grew up in Houston, Texas and we didn't have cooling centers either.

I actualy wonder if it is a California thing.