wuhan - coronavirus

[Pen]

58 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yeah, agreed. Although I think they wound up ending the randomized study due to reports of negative side-effects in the treatment group, right? 

 

Iirc Hydroxychloroquine has been used and well tolerated by many for a long time.

it has some potential heart side effects risks, though afaik when used at high doses for a long time

I don’t know if any studies were discontinued for that reason, but increasingly it is appearing that CV19 has heart, blood, and circulatory system effects due to the virus itself, regardless of whether any Hydroxychloroquine is used

 

I am very disappointed in both the Vitamin D and Hydroxychloroquine studies I have seen as described prior to prospective start up. They seem like they are being set up to find both of those things unhelpful rather than to give them a fair chance.  

I am trying not to be suspicious and cynical , but maybe the places setting up studies want the treatment to be expensive and difficult and currently under patent. 

[TracyP]

U of MN is conducting a study on taking hydroxychloroquine either as a preventive or immediately after showing symptoms.

https://med.umn.edu/news-events/covid-19-clinical-trial-launches-university-minnesota

The first interim analysis showed no significant benefit or harm according to this article. They hope to have more findings by May 8. 

[BeachGal]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

@BeachGal super interesting about the ozone therapy! I'll be curious when the randomized trial results come out. 

 

You won’t hear much about those results in the US. Although ozone therapy was used here before antibiotics, it was dropped afterward and won’t be used to treat Covid even if other countries have great success using it on their more advanced cases. It’s already being called a sham in the US MSM and the Department of Justice is getting involved. That is why I bought my own equipment.

The US will probably only use anti-virals, maybe some other drugs, plasma therapy, oxygen therapy and vaccines once they’re available.

[BeachGal]

27 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Iirc Hydroxychloroquine has been used and well tolerated by many for a long time.

it has some potential heart side effects risks, though afaik when used at high doses for a long time

I don’t know if any studies were discontinued for that reason, but increasingly it is appearing that CV19 has heart, blood, and circulatory system effects due to the virus itself, regardless of whether any Hydroxychloroquine is used

 

I am very disappointed in both the Vitamin D and Hydroxychloroquine studies I have seen as described prior to prospective start up. They seem like they are being set up to find both of those things unhelpful rather than to give them a fair chance.  

I am trying not to be suspicious and cynical , but maybe the places setting up studies want the treatment to be expensive and difficult and currently under patent. 

 

Yes. Designed to fail. Not surprising at all. Happens quite often in studies.

[BeachGal]

Just now, square_25 said:

 

I can read the medical literature whoever is writing it. Either it'll pan out or it won't. Most therapies don't. 

 

If you can find it. Some of it is already out there but it’s not easy to find on some search engines.

My husband’s PhD is in stats also (UChicago) and he works on informing Congress on a lot of issues. (He’s retiring soon, though.) Many good therapies get buried or are made to look bad for various reasons. Conversely, some bad therapies get the go ahead. That’s just how the US operates.

[Matryoshka]

17 minutes ago, TracyP said:

U of MN is conducting a study on taking hydroxychloroquine either as a preventive or immediately after showing symptoms.

https://med.umn.edu/news-events/covid-19-clinical-trial-launches-university-minnesota

The first interim analysis showed no significant benefit or harm according to this article. They hope to have more findings by May 8. 

I'll be interested in how that turns out.  The other study doesn't seem to differentiate that much between the hydroxy- version and regular chloroquine, and from other things I've read the latter has many more side-effects, and also in the other trials it seems they gave them to already very sick patients who might have been at that point not up to tolerating any side-effects, especially with the 'stronger' drug.  I've wondered if they just gave the less dangerous drug before people were so sick if it would turn out differently - hopefully this new study will shed light.

[BeachGal]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

 

I think a lot of medical literature is junk, to be honest. I'm sure there are perverse incentives to things, though. I remember finding that when I was looking for medical pregnancy info, lol. So many unknowns. But also, lots of things that don't work. 

Do you have a good randomized ozone study for me to look at when I have the chance? 

 

Yes, I agree that a lot is junk — or what’s good is too good and too cheap.

For Covid? No, the studies that I know about aren’t completed yet. Preliminary evidence that is being posted on some other forums I visit looks promising, though.

[Pen]

1 hour ago, mathnerd said:

From the experiences of a couple of my friends who were infected, Hydroxychloroquine is not given by doctors because they think that the risks outweigh the benefits. But, my friends managed to convince the medical team to give it to them because they had been on charity trips to Africa before and had taken Hydroxychloroquine with no side effects at that time. It was not easy for them to get it prescribed, but they were convinced that it was the right thing to do and it took them a few days to make the case and get it prescribed. They have both recovered fully and there are others in their workplace who also got infected and who had successful outcomes using Hydr.oxychloroquine. That's the anecdotal report from my social circle regarding the use of Hydroxychloroquine for covid19 treatment.

 

I have heard similar anecdotal reports.

Plus that it felt like there was a clear subjective sense of cause and effect where within some relatively short time (I don’t know exactly how long)  of taking Hydroxychloroquine they felt like they had gone from feeling truly worried they were going to die, to feeling like there was a movement toward recovery. 

It is possible that the Hydroxychloroquine is acting as a zinc ionophore and that there is some non Hydroxychloroquine way to achieve that if that’s more of the relevant mechanism.  But anti inflammatory effects of Hydroxychloroquine may be reducing cytokine storm and it may be having its own direct benefit in that or some other way.   Much like mechanisms that make it helpful in autoimmunity. 

 

 

[TracyP]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Excellent. Are they randomizing, though? Is there a control group? 

Here is the link again. I don't see anything about randomizing, but I would assume so. (?) Yes, there is a control group.

https://med.umn.edu/news-events/covid-19-clinical-trial-launches-university-minnesota

The trial seeks to enroll up to 1,500 people who have had household contact or those who are healthcare workers that have been exposed to someone with known COVID-19 disease within the past three days and who presently are not ill. The trial is national in scope. 

In order to determine if taking the medicine hydroxychloroquine can prevent a person with exposure to the coronavirus from becoming ill or in reducing the severity of illness, the trial will provide hydroxychloroquine to half the study participants, while the other half will receive a vitamin. 

[73349]

So y'all might already know about this, but it's new to me: a site called Retraction Watch highlights papers that have been withdrawn. https://retractionwatch.com/

[BeachGal]

28 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

Post them when they are done, please! I'll be annoying and skeptical, though ;-). I'm like that in general. 

 

I will post them when they come out if I can find them. The Italian studies should be done in summer, iirc, but not sure. I follow ozone therapy for Dupuytren’s contracture, which I have, so that’s how I learned about it.

And I sleep with a statistician who is annoying and skeptical! So I’m used to that by now. :) 

[Arcadia]

FYI. Northwestern U Facebook announcement 

“The well-being of our students and staff is our highest priority. In light of recent developments related to the coronavirus (COVID-19), CTD will not be holding summer in-person programming on the Northwestern campus or at satellite locations. Fortunately, CTD is an expert in online education and is offering a wide array of courses in a variety of formats this summer! We encourage students to apply for one of our online offerings, including some of the most popular courses from Leapfrog-Spark, Solstice, Spectrum, Equinox, and Civic Education Project. Though we cannot replicate our entire residential experience, select offerings will also include fun, creative social and recreational activities that can be done remotely. Learn more by visiting www.ctd.northwestern.edu/online2020”

ETA:

@SeaConquest

Edited April 28, 2020 by Arcadia

[Pen]

Stats people:

Tossing out another perspective as a kid of older physicians and ones who worked some in 3rd world countries where feasibility might be more significant than stats—

sometimes in medicine doing things according to stats makes sense

But sometimes a feel for a situation and what might work for a particular individual patient (or even a patient’s intuition about herself / himself) might work better for a particular person than what worked for 80% (or whatever) of people in a study.  Even if something only worked for 10 % of people, if one is in that 10 % then that can be a right treatment for oneself—and would be better than having treatment that was successful for 80% of people it was used with, but for which one is in its 20% where it doesn’t work group stat.  

I think statisticians tend to think of it as if all the “worked for ____% of cases” graphs overlap,  so that a treatment  where it worked for 80% (or whatever) will include all the people who would get other treatments that didn’t work as well statistically (maybe worked for 20% who got that treatment or 50% who got that treatment) —but for real people in real world it doesn’t necessarily happen that way.    

It can be more like homeschool math programs where an excellent program for one child isn’t necessarily the best program for every child.  And a program that actually works well for one’s own child is better than a program that statistically works well for 80% of children, but isn’t a good fit for ones own. 

 

So an anecdotal story of something working well, especially if one has reason to think one might be similar to the person it worked well for,  is not necessarily something to disregard. 

 

 

 

[Pen]

1 minute ago, Plum said:

Well the text made it sound like they proved softer quarantine measures don't work and the S. Korea model was ideal which seemed like a big nothingburger to me. I wasn't sure if maybe there was more to it.

 

Sounds like they are saying soft quarantine leaves an exponential growth hockey stick shape graph.  Tight quarantine measures like for South Korea make it stop the steep exponential climb.

beyond that it sounds like they think they might be able to use physics and chaos theory to do future modeling

[Ausmumof3]

3 hours ago, Pen said:

 

Iirc Hydroxychloroquine has been used and well tolerated by many for a long time.

it has some potential heart side effects risks, though afaik when used at high doses for a long time

I don’t know if any studies were discontinued for that reason, but increasingly it is appearing that CV19 has heart, blood, and circulatory system effects due to the virus itself, regardless of whether any Hydroxychloroquine is used

 

I am very disappointed in both the Vitamin D and Hydroxychloroquine studies I have seen as described prior to prospective start up. They seem like they are being set up to find both of those things unhelpful rather than to give them a fair chance.  

I am trying not to be suspicious and cynical , but maybe the places setting up studies want the treatment to be expensive and difficult and currently under patent. 

One of the trials (Brazil) I think they trialled a high dose and a low dose.  They ended up discontinuing the high dose due the increase in deaths and continued with the low dose.  I don’t think they found benefits with the low dose but I’d have to check again.

[Terabith]

43 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

Yes, I absolutely see this, and it's a real dilemma. 

However, I will say that I am pretty lousy at separating the placebo effect from actual effects in myself. There were things that I would have sworn worked for me that, when recorded, turned out to not work at all (certain ways of getting my littlest one to sleep, for example.) And I'm actually very rigorous about trying to avoid confirmation bias. 

So I both understand that anecdotes can be useful and am skeptical of them at the same time. 

20 some odd years ago, I tried a whole host of medications for a condition with absolutely no real effect.  Then I was prescribed a medication that had had some promising initial research but further study showed that it had absolutely no impact on the condition I was diagnosed with.  But....while low levels of the medication had no impact, a higher dose was AMAZING.  Almost completely eliminated it.  Study after study over the years have shown that it has no impact.  But, for me, it absolutely did.  Thank God my doctor believes me, and actually says he has a subset of patients that it works with, even though the studies show on a population level it doesn't have an impact.  

[Ausmumof3]

53 minutes ago, Plum said:

@square_25 Please explain if it's worth your time. 

 

I will make one comment and that is I don’t believe that China graph AT ALL.  

[Terabith]

Just now, square_25 said:

 

I can tell the difference from the placebo effect when it's big enough! It's just often not. 

I hope they get better at making more targeted drugs and then studying them in specific as opposed to general populations. I'm sure lots of effects get buried by the fact that they only work in a small subset (and maybe make another small subset worse, lol.) 

Yeah, this was the only time that I could tell a clear difference between placebo effect.  Over the years, I've tried to go off of it several times, but it's never really worked well.  

[Ausmumof3]

“Herein, we show that the ribonucleoside analog β-D-N⁴-hydroxycytidine (NHC, EIDD-1931) has broad spectrum antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, and related zoonotic group 2b or 2c Bat-CoVs, as well as increased potency against a coronavirus bearing resistance mutations to the nucleoside analog inhibitor remdesivir. “

https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/27/scitranslmed.abb5883
 

anyone have any thoughts on this study?  It sounds vaguely promising 

[TracyP]

1 hour ago, Plum said:

@square_25 Please explain if it's worth your time. 

 

 

59 minutes ago, Plum said:

Well the text made it sound like they proved softer quarantine measures don't work and the S. Korea model was ideal which seemed like a big nothingburger to me. I wasn't sure if maybe there was more to it.

I wonder how they define "soft" measures. I would have thought South Korea was using soft measures.

Many of those other countries had only enacted any lockdown measures 2 weeks before this analysis ended. It would be too soon to show an impact from those measures. I'm not sure it shows much of anything except that doing nothing is a mistake and SK has done a phenomenal job. No breaking news there.

[Ausmumof3]

7 hours ago, Pen said:

 

 

Im not watching the video because I don’t wish to upset myself. 

 

The Hydroxychloroquine studies I have seen that purportedly showed it increased deaths were bad studies. (I did a screen shot of a page showing a part of problem on the scientific developments thread).   I have heard enough anecdotal personal reports of people who were desperately ill and turned around after Hydroxychloroquine (with zinc and or azythromycin) not to dismiss it, myself. 

 

Thinking about this some more and I think you are right that there’s room for more research.  However I can 100 pc understand why a hospital would be cautious about giving it to patients when it’s been shown to potentially increase risk of death and they aren’t part of a clinical trial etc.  And I don’t think it has anything to do with wanting to increase the number of deaths for a political agenda which the video implied.  I honestly don’t think doctors or nurses en masse would go along with that.

[TracyP]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

 

Do you remember their list of rules? I know their schools are closed. 

No, and I've been looking and can't figure it out exactly. I know large gatherings are banned. I believe most businesses are open except bars and restaurants closed from April 8-26. (I think)

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/antimalarials-widely-used-against-covid-19-heighten-risk-cardiac-arrest-how-can-doctors#
 

recent overview of the hydroxychloroquine studies from science mag.  The opening of the article may be very slightly political so hopefully that didn’t impact on the science 

“

An analysis of data from 368 U.S. veterans treated for COVID-19, posted in a preprint today, found the risk of death from any cause was greater for those who received hydroxychloroquine than for those who didn’t, even after researchers adjusted for the fact that patients with more severe disease were more likely to receive the drug. And a woman in New York died this month after her general practitioner prescribed hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin for coronaviruslike symptoms, NBC News reported last week. (There’s no proof that drug-induced arrhythmia caused her death, Ackerman says, “but it smells awfully fishy.”) Now, researchers are trying pin down the rates of this side effect in COVID-19 patients and are urging diligent heart monitoring during treatment.

“When the media says this looks to be a safe drug—in certain contexts, that’s true,” says Wesley Self, an emergency physician at Vanderbilt University conducting a clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine. “However, when you’re talking about potentially treating millions of patients, even rare side effects become very important.”

 

[maize]

14 minutes ago, Terabith said:

20 some odd years ago, I tried a whole host of medications for a condition with absolutely no real effect.  Then I was prescribed a medication that had had some promising initial research but further study showed that it had absolutely no impact on the condition I was diagnosed with.  But....while low levels of the medication had no impact, a higher dose was AMAZING.  Almost completely eliminated it.  Study after study over the years have shown that it has no impact.  But, for me, it absolutely did.  Thank God my doctor believes me, and actually says he has a subset of patients that it works with, even though the studies show on a population level it doesn't have an impact.  

I think one of the most needed directions in medical research is more attention to individual responses to treatments; people are not all the same, and average population wide effects don't necessarily have much bearing on individual response. Something that works well for only 5% of the population won't necessarily show up as having a statistically significant effect in a study that draws its sample from the population at large.

Our understanding of individual genetic, epigenetic, and other variation and the impacts of that variation on treatment response in humans is very much in it's infancy.

It's only recently that medical research has started to take the significant difference between male and female responses to many drugs seriously!

[Pen]

30 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/antimalarials-widely-used-against-covid-19-heighten-risk-cardiac-arrest-how-can-doctors#
 

recent overview of the hydroxychloroquine studies from science mag.  The opening of the article may be very slightly political so hopefully that didn’t impact on the science 

“

An analysis of data from 368 U.S. veterans treated for COVID-19, posted in a preprint today, found the risk of death from any cause was greater for those who received hydroxychloroquine than for those who didn’t, even after researchers adjusted for the fact that patients with more severe disease were more likely to receive the drug. And a woman in New York died this month after her general practitioner prescribed hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin for coronaviruslike symptoms, NBC News reported last week. (There’s no proof that drug-induced arrhythmia caused her death, Ackerman says, “but it smells awfully fishy.”) Now, researchers are trying pin down the rates of this side effect in COVID-19 patients and are urging diligent heart monitoring during treatment.

“When the media says this looks to be a safe drug—in certain contexts, that’s true,” says Wesley Self, an emergency physician at Vanderbilt University conducting a clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine. “However, when you’re talking about potentially treating millions of patients, even rare side effects become very important.”

 

 

I think that is the horrible study Inreferred to earlier. 75% of the non Hydroxychloroquine treated veterans had healthy lung function and didn’t seem to be in danger in first place. Hydroxychloroquine was given to the most sick patients so not suprisingly more sick

patients had more deaths!   

😤🤯🤬. (Not at you, at the study!!!) 

[Arcadia]

Michigan, California https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/04/28/feds-charge-michigan-man-with-n95-mask-scam-which-burned-bay-area-victims/

"According to the complaint, Stevenson, 24, of Muskegon, Michigan, set up a limited liability company – EM General – in September 2019 that purported to sell an available inventory of “Anti-Viral N95” respirator masks. Stevenson also created fake officers for the company, using stock photos from the internet to create a page of fake management staff, the complaint said.

EM General’s website falsely claimed to have the masks “in stock” and available for sale and shipment during the shortage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, prosecutors said in a press release. Customers bought masks from the website, sometimes paying more than $40 a mask, and after customers made their first purchase, the defendant offered additional masks to those customers at discounted prices, according to the complaint.

Customers bought what they thought were N95 masks but never received them, sometimes receiving follow-up emails from EM General with false excuses about supply and shipping issues. The complaint also alleges some customers ended up getting cheaply-made fabric masks that did not comply with the N95 standard.

Stevenson was arrested at his home in Muskegon, Michigan and made his initial appearance before the U.S. District Court in Grand Rapids. He was released on supervised bond and his next scheduled appearance was set for May 18.

The case is being prosecuted by the Special Prosecutions Section of the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of California. The San Francisco and Detroit Divisions of the U.S. Postal Inspection Service and the FBI’s San Francisco and Detroit field offices were conducting a joint investigation."

[Ausmumof3]

15 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I think that is the horrible study Inreferred to earlier. 75% of the non Hydroxychloroquine treated veterans had healthy lung function and didn’t seem to be in danger in first place. Hydroxychloroquine was given to the most sick patients so not suprisingly more sick

patients had more deaths!   

😤🤯🤬. (Not at you, at the study!!!) 

The article actually goes over all the studies to date not just that one though.  It’s not outright advocating against it just advocating that it be studied further and certain safety protocols be observed before using it (ideally in clinical trials).

[Ausmumof3]

24 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I think that is the horrible study Inreferred to earlier. 75% of the non Hydroxychloroquine treated veterans had healthy lung function and didn’t seem to be in danger in first place. Hydroxychloroquine was given to the most sick patients so not suprisingly more sick

patients had more deaths!   

😤🤯🤬. (Not at you, at the study!!!) 

It also does claim they adjusted for the fact that there were more sick patients with more severE disease in the study.  I haven’t read the actually study to know if they did that correctly but supposedly they tried to do it.

edited to add one of the comments below the study claims that they moved some people onto the hydroxychloroquine once they became more ill.  Those patients subsequently died and were counted in the HC group which would make the study on giving it prior to severe illness basically meaningless if true.  I can’t find verification though.  Those patients should have been excluded from the study.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Arcadia]

@mathnerd@sassenach masks from China even though the company has a factory in SoCal

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/california/first-shipment-of-california-governors-big-mask-buy-arrives/2280822/

"Three million surgical masks arrived in California as the first shipment in a major deal cut by Gov. Gavin Newsom for 200 million masks a month to protect health care and other workers from the coronavirus.

The weekend shipment came as part of a $104.7 million payment under a $1 billion contract with Chinese company BYD, Newsom’s finance director, Keely Bosler, wrote in a letter to lawmakers shared Monday.

...

The company has offices and a factory in Southern California, though the masks are being made in China. California expects to get 500 million masks over 2.5 months under the contract, and about 75% will be N95 masks."

[Paige]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Thinking about this some more and I think you are right that there’s room for more research.  However I can 100 pc understand why a hospital would be cautious about giving it to patients when it’s been shown to potentially increase risk of death and they aren’t part of a clinical trial etc.  And I don’t think it has anything to do with wanting to increase the number of deaths for a political agenda which the video implied.  I honestly don’t think doctors or nurses en masse would go along with that.

Especially doctors and nurses from a bunch of other countries who don't care at all about American politics. 

[The Governess]

It’s good to see how much the doubling rate has slowed:

U.S. Deaths

 

April 28 59,266 14 days to double (58,368)

April 14 29,800 6 days to double (29184)

April 8 14,800 5 days to double (14592)

April 3 7400 3 days to double (7296)

March 31 3900 3 days to double (3648)

March 28 2200 3 days to double (1824)

March 25 1030 2 days to double (912)

March 23 550 3 days to double (456)

March 20 250 3 days to double (228)

March 17 110 3 days to double (114)

March 14 57

 

By the way, just out of curiosity, I did a calculation and if that every 3 days rate had continued, we’d be at 1,867,776 deaths at this point.  

[Pam in CT]

re "days to double" metric

46 minutes ago, lovelearnandlive said:

It’s good to see how much the doubling rate has slowed:

U.S. Deaths

 

April 28 59,266 14 days to double (58,368)

April 14 29,800 6 days to double (29184)

April 8 14,800 5 days to double (14592)

April 3 7400 3 days to double (7296)

March 31 3900 3 days to double (3648)

March 28 2200 3 days to double (1824)

March 25 1030 2 days to double (912)

March 23 550 3 days to double (456)

March 20 250 3 days to double (228)

March 17 110 3 days to double (114)

March 14 57

 

By the way, just out of curiosity, I did a calculation and if that every 3 days rate had continued, we’d be at 1,867,776 deaths at this point.  

The bolded is the issue, isn't it.

 

And deaths are a very long-lag indicator.  It's looking like it takes something in the range of an average 7-10 days from exposure before a person who gets sick starts to show symptoms... and another average ~10 days before a person who ends up with severe symptoms starts to go into crisis/ hospitalization... and then another average ~7-10 days post-hospitalization before those who die, do so.  So deaths lag something like ~20-30 days from initial exposure.  The slowdown we're seeing now is the result of measures and behavior changes that were in place 3-5 weeks ago.

(And conversely, as easing starts to happen, there will be a -10+ day lag before new cases start to creep up, and a ~20-30 day lag before deaths do.)

[Ausmumof3]

Trump signs executive order to keep meat processing plants open

From CNN's Kaitlan Collins

President Trump has signed an executive order that mandates meat processing plants must stay open, an official said.

Aides said the order would fall under the Defense Production Act.

Trump had highlighted the order during an Oval Office meeting with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis that was opened up to reporters.

"We're going to sign an executive order today, I believe, and that'll solve any liability problems," Trump said on Tuesday.

The President signed the order after some companies, such as Tyson Foods, were considering only keeping 20% of their facilities open. The vast majority of processing plants could have shut down — which would have reduced processing capacity in the country by as much as 80%, an official familiar with the order told CNN.

By signing the order, Trump has declared these plants as a part of critical infrastructure in the US.

The administration is also working with the Department of Labor on issuing guidance about which employees who work at these meat processing facilities should remain home, including workers who are part of populations most vulnerable to the coronavirus.
 

I posted this in food security as well but I have some questions that are more specific to Coronavirus that are here.

does this mean meat companies will be immune to lawsuits if employees get sick?

does it mean employees have to continue to work or can they still opt out if they can afford that?

is there any risk of coronavirus contaminating meat products particularly mince and sausages etc?

[ElizabethB]

"Of those requiring mechanical ventilation fewer patients died in the ivermectin group (7.3% versus 21.3%) and overall death rates were lower with ivermectin (1.4% versus 8.5%; HR 0.20 CI 95% 0.11-0.37, p<0.0001)."

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3580524

It would be ironic (but nice, I'm not voting against it!) if a common pet/horse/cow medicine turned out to be the solution!!

[Corraleno]

41 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Trump signs executive order to keep meat processing plants open

The people who work in meat processing plants are generally very poor, often undocumented, and with few other employment options. Forcing them to keep working while the virus runs rampant through the plant makes it clear that they are disposable — of no more value than latex gloves and paper masks.

But hey, what's a few thousand dead brown people as long as Americans can get all the steak and bacon they want? I am so utterly disgusted by this. I wish every meat plant worker in America would say f@#$ you and walk off the job tomorrow. 🤬

[Ausmumof3]

2 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

The people who work in meat processing plants are generally very poor, often undocumented, and with few other employment options. Forcing them to keep working while the virus runs rampant through the plant makes it clear that they are disposable — of no more value than latex gloves and paper masks.

But hey, what's a few thousand dead brown people as long as Americans can get all the steak and bacon they want? I am so utterly disgusted by this. I wish every meat plant worker in America would say f@#$ you and walk off the job tomorrow. 🤬

Too sad. 

[Ausmumof3]

47 minutes ago, Plum said:

Yes. I assume it’s just like hospital employees can’t sue for offlabel use of PPE or patients can’t sue for off shelf use of medications. 

I would think it’s like food service and other essential employees where people can work and possibly get hazard pay or take time off. Optional. 

No clue. 
 

What I want to know is if the feds are going to supply these factories with protective gear. I saw an interview with an employee that said the company provided them with masks..after a bunch of people got sick...but the masks would get wet and so he took it off. 

Yep.  Dh does some meat prep here and I can’t imagine if you were doing it on a large scale all day that a mask wouldn’t get really messy really quick.  They would be unlikely to be easy to sterilise and reuse due to all the other non Covid contaminants.

[BeachGal]

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The article actually goes over all the studies to date not just that one though.  It’s not outright advocating against it just advocating that it be studied further and certain safety protocols be observed before using it (ideally in clinical trials).

 

The hydroxychloroquine could be depleting magnesium which could cause afib. Many people do not have healthy levels of magnesium (or potassium) and adding hydroxychloroquine could make them even more deficient. If they’re taking hydroxychloroquine and vitamin C  and the vitamin C is having a laxative effect, then that could be making matters worse, too.

https://www.drugs.com/drug-interactions/cascara-sagrada-magnesium-hydroxide-with-plaquenil-534-0-1298-4616.html

Quote

Hydroxychloroquine can cause an irregular heart rhythm that may be serious and potentially life-threatening, although it is a relatively rare side effect. The risk is increased if you have low blood levels of magnesium or potassium, which can occur with bowel cleansing preparations or excessive use of medications that have a laxative effect.

 

Off tangent a bit but magnesium is needed to metabolize vitamin D. Pen or Elizabeth might have said this already but might be worth another mention. About 50% in US are deficient in magnesium.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180226122548.htm

Quote

Vitamin D can't be metabolized without sufficient magnesium levels, meaning Vitamin D remains stored and inactive for as many as 50 percent of Americans. In addition, Vitamin D supplements can increase a person's calcium and phosphate levels even while they remain Vitamin D deficient. People may suffer from vascular calcification if their magnesium levels aren't high enough to prevent the complication.

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by BeachGal

[BeachGal]

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

<snip>

I posted this in food security as well but I have some questions that are more specific to Coronavirus that are here.

does this mean meat companies will be immune to lawsuits if employees get sick?

does it mean employees have to continue to work or can they still opt out if they can afford that?

is there any risk of coronavirus contaminating meat products particularly mince and sausages etc?

 

Not sure about the legal aspects but they need to do way more to ensure workers are safe and remain as healthy as possible. Maybe give them better pay, too.

Regarding contamination, they could ozonate the meat and use ozonated water to disinfect the plant and equipment. This has been used for a number of years already. Singapore is using ozonated water to disinfect its airports and public places now. Cheap-ish and not too difficult to do. Workers could even wash their hands with it and drink it. It’s perfectly safe. Are you surprised that’s my response? 😄

https://www.ozonesafefood.com/beef.html

Quote

In 2001,  The Food and Drug Administration published a final ruling in the federal register accepting ozone as an additive to kill food borne pathogens.

The FDA ruling allows for the use of ozone in the processing of all foods, including meat and poultry.

The Food and Drug Administration amended its food additive regulations to permit ozone use as an anti-microbial agent.

Published in the Federal Register, the final rule allows for ozone use in gaseous and aqueous phases, and for the anti-microbial treatment of meat and poultry.

The amendment resulted from a petition, and date provided by the Electric Power Research Institute and the Agriculture and Food Technology Alliance.

A large number of processors are using ozone in their meat  processing plants.

Ozone is Proven Effective. 
"Ozone is the most effective antimicrobial agent known.  It kills E-coli 3,125 times faster than chlorine, and it converts into ordinary oxygen after the process, leaving no chemical residuals behind."

Ozone technology offers many advantages.  Its efficiency at ambient temperatures is as great as ultra-hot water. And water treated with ozone can be effectively reused requiring limited filtration. Ozonated water can be used anywhere in a packing or processing plant. 

Anywhere you're running water through pipes, you can use low-level ozonated water. You can use higher levels of ozonated water in cleaning off equipment, conveyor belts, hooks, and those sorts of things-in addition to actually coming into contact with a food product.

Companies are also using our Ozone Air Clean Systems. These systems provide low-level ozone which can be used in a gaseous form to help control mold, fungus, bacterial growth and mildew in areas like cold storage and holding rooms.

Ozone destroys pathogens by attacking and oxidizing the cell walls of the organism; the mucous membranes.

It doesn't matter whether they are gram-positive or gram-negative. Whether they are spores, whether they are active, or whether they are amoeba-types (or microorganisms). The pathogens are all comprised of double-carbon bonds to hold the molecular structure together, and any microorganisms exposed to ozone will not just become benign in the water, but instead it will be completely evaporated. That's because ozone will continue to break that molecular chain down until it's nothing but carbon dioxide and water.   Ozone is approved and showing great results for sanitizing equipment and disinfecting food product for beef processors.

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by BeachGal

[sassenach]

4 hours ago, Arcadia said:

@mathnerd@sassenach masks from China even though the company has a factory in SoCal

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/california/first-shipment-of-california-governors-big-mask-buy-arrives/2280822/

"Three million surgical masks arrived in California as the first shipment in a major deal cut by Gov. Gavin Newsom for 200 million masks a month to protect health care and other workers from the coronavirus.

The weekend shipment came as part of a $104.7 million payment under a $1 billion contract with Chinese company BYD, Newsom’s finance director, Keely Bosler, wrote in a letter to lawmakers shared Monday.

...

The company has offices and a factory in Southern California, though the masks are being made in China. California expects to get 500 million masks over 2.5 months under the contract, and about 75% will be N95 masks."

I’ve been giving him a hard time today but I really do think he’s doing an ok job. There are some blind spots, for sure, but he’s doing some things right. 

[Arcadia]

@Pen@Ausmumof3

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-community-transmission-in-spore-very-low-but-so-is-herd-immunity-says

“SINGAPORE - Local transmission of Covid-19 in the general community has been low, at least up until the middle of March, researchers from the Covid-19 research group at the National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID) have found.

This shows that Singapore's contact tracing efforts have been effective, according to three studies by the NCID that are among the first of their kind in the world.

However, this also means that immunity rates here are low and much of Singapore's population remains susceptible to the virus, NCID executive director Leo Yee Sin told reporters on Wednesday (April 29).

For their seroepidemiology studies, researchers harnessed locally developed tests which detect antibodies produced in response to an infection and remain in a patient's blood after recovery.

This can help identify patients who were previously infected with a virus.

The three studies aimed to determine the proportion of the Singapore population infected by the virus and to understand how key populations such as front-line healthcare workers have been affected.

They were conducted between February and April, and reflect case figures before numbers began to spike in early April.

One study involving the general community tested 268 children aged 16 and below, as well as 506 adults of all ages.

Another of the studies involved 1,096 healthcare staff at the National University Hospital, Tan Tock Seng Hospital and NCID. About half of the staff were caring for Covid-19 patients or worked in areas with some risk of exposure to the virus.

Both of these studies found no clear evidence of past infection among the samples.

Dr Mark Chen, who heads the NCID's research office, said this showed that a "very low" proportion of the general community in Singapore were infected as of mid-March, and that local protections for healthcare workers have been adequate.

The study on healthcare workers is now being expanded to other healthcare institutions in Singapore, he added.

The third study involved close contacts and household members of confirmed Covid-19 patients.

It found that only about 5.2 per cent were infected despite close contact with the patient, and about half of these cases were not previously detected.

Dr Chen said more tests are planned for early May and the researchers hope to gather more samples from children.

He added that the research teams plan to continue the studies on a regular basis, about once a month, to monitor the status of the epidemic in Singapore.”

[Ausmumof3]

19 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

@Pen@Ausmumof3

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-community-transmission-in-spore-very-low-but-so-is-herd-immunity-says

“SINGAPORE - Local transmission of Covid-19 in the general community has been low, at least up until the middle of March, researchers from the Covid-19 research group at the National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID) have found.

This shows that Singapore's contact tracing efforts have been effective, according to three studies by the NCID that are among the first of their kind in the world.

However, this also means that immunity rates here are low and much of Singapore's population remains susceptible to the virus, NCID executive director Leo Yee Sin told reporters on Wednesday (April 29).

For their seroepidemiology studies, researchers harnessed locally developed tests which detect antibodies produced in response to an infection and remain in a patient's blood after recovery.

This can help identify patients who were previously infected with a virus.

The three studies aimed to determine the proportion of the Singapore population infected by the virus and to understand how key populations such as front-line healthcare workers have been affected.

They were conducted between February and April, and reflect case figures before numbers began to spike in early April.

One study involving the general community tested 268 children aged 16 and below, as well as 506 adults of all ages.

Another of the studies involved 1,096 healthcare staff at the National University Hospital, Tan Tock Seng Hospital and NCID. About half of the staff were caring for Covid-19 patients or worked in areas with some risk of exposure to the virus.

Both of these studies found no clear evidence of past infection among the samples.

Dr Mark Chen, who heads the NCID's research office, said this showed that a "very low" proportion of the general community in Singapore were infected as of mid-March, and that local protections for healthcare workers have been adequate.

The study on healthcare workers is now being expanded to other healthcare institutions in Singapore, he added.

The third study involved close contacts and household members of confirmed Covid-19 patients.

It found that only about 5.2 per cent were infected despite close contact with the patient, and about half of these cases were not previously detected.

Dr Chen said more tests are planned for early May and the researchers hope to gather more samples from children.

He added that the research teams plan to continue the studies on a regular basis, about once a month, to monitor the status of the epidemic in Singapore.”

Very interesting!  Well done Singapore for keeping healthcare workers safe.  

[Ausmumof3]

0 new cases in my state today for the 7th day running.  Down to 14 active cases and 1 person moved out of the ICU leaving one man in the ICU.  We have to see whether anything changes with schools gone back and the returned international travellers stay healthy for another week but it sounds positive.

in all honesty the health minister and the state premier seem surprised by the good results.  I think it may be partly because people have gone above and beyond the requirements.  But I’m really wondering how much of a role climate is playing . Aside from the dormitory situation, Singapore seems to have a fairly good handle on in and Australia and NZ are doing better than northern countries. I wonder if it really just does not spread as well in the warmth.  And I really hope that doesn’t mean we get hit in winter.

[Ausmumof3]

Abc

Positive test recorded in Melbourne childcare centre

Parents have been texted to "urgently arrange" the collection of their children after a Melbourne childcare centre recorded a positive coronavirus test.

 
The Learning Sanctuary at Yarraville said it would be closed for today and tomorrow until the results of a "presumed positive" are confirmed.

 
The centre will also be undergoing a "professional-grade hygienic clean" during the closure, it said in a statement.

 
Parents were texted before 2:00pm and asked to "urgently arrange" the collection of their children.

 
The centre said anyone, including children, staff or family members, who had any symptoms of COVID-19 should be tested.

 
Victorian public health officials are planning to conduct 100,000 coronavirus tests over the next two weeks.

 
"While we apologise for any inconvenience, the safety of our children, families and team members continues to remain our number one priority," the centre said.

 
The Department of Health and Human Services said it would not provide comment on individual cases.

 
Two dozen staff from a hospital in Melbourne's west have been sent home to quarantine, after a patient tested positive to COVID-19.

 
In a statement, Sunshine Hospital confirmed the patient tested positive after being treated in the emergency department.

[TravelingChris]

14 hours ago, square_25 said:

Any studies?

yes, University of Alabama in Birmingham is leading one.  Lots of trials in the NE part of the country.

[Ausmumof3]

https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1255265645790445570?s=21

thread from twitter from a biostatistician with info/links/opinions on the antibodies/seroprevalence studies.  Mostly putting it here so I can find it later but may be of interest to others.  

[Ausmumof3]

I hope this is not too controversial/political to post will take it down if it’s an issue.  But a lot of people seem to really see restrictions as an economy versus lives decision.  However Sweden who haven’t enacted restrictions are all experiencing some level of economic trouble - I think pointing to the fact that even without enforced restrictions the economy is still going to suffer.  It may suffer less potentially but it won’t be unscathed.

https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-and-published/notices-and-press-releases/press-releases/2020/monetary-policy-april-2020--the-riksbank-is-supporting-an-economy--in-crisis/

[Lanny]

I was sad to read about the <70 Veterans at the home in Massachusetts who have died from Covoid-19. I am both sad and mad.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/nearly-70-dead-horrific-outbreak-veterans-home

[Bootsie]

44 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I hope this is not too controversial/political to post will take it down if it’s an issue.  But a lot of people seem to really see restrictions as an economy versus lives decision.  However Sweden who haven’t enacted restrictions are all experiencing some level of economic trouble - I think pointing to the fact that even without enforced restrictions the economy is still going to suffer.  It may suffer less potentially but it won’t be unscathed.

https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-and-published/notices-and-press-releases/press-releases/2020/monetary-policy-april-2020--the-riksbank-is-supporting-an-economy--in-crisis/

I do not that anyone would suggest that the economy can be unscathed by this pandemic, regardless of level of restrictions.  But, the extent of the economic damage can be drastically different.  The Swedish Riksbank is estimating an unemployment rate of 8.8-10.1 percent this year.  Federal Reserve reports are suggesting that unemployment will most likely be in the 30% level in the US--a range of estimates of 10.5% to over 40%--but the 10.5% percent estimate models a lot of people getting frustrated and just leaving the labor force and not being counted as unemployed which would just really hide the problem.  So, Sweden's "worst case" is better than the US's "best case"

[Ausmumof3]

47 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

I do not that anyone would suggest that the economy can be unscathed by this pandemic, regardless of level of restrictions.  But, the extent of the economic damage can be drastically different.  The Swedish Riksbank is estimating an unemployment rate of 8.8-10.1 percent this year.  Federal Reserve reports are suggesting that unemployment will most likely be in the 30% level in the US--a range of estimates of 10.5% to over 40%--but the 10.5% percent estimate models a lot of people getting frustrated and just leaving the labor force and not being counted as unemployed which would just really hide the problem.  So, Sweden's "worst case" is better than the US's "best case"

Yes Australia is tanking right now.  That is partly because of Covid and partly because we’re picking a fight with China.  It will be interesting to see if we manage to keep cases low while opening up if that helps to bounce back faster or not.   Lack of Chinese students and tourism will hurt for sure.

I also read somewhere that China may have 20 pc unemployment though I can’t find it right now.

 

found it

“The unemployment situation is also becoming an increasingly sensitive issue in China. Zhongtai Securities, a brokerage in Shanghai, published a report estimating that China’s real unemployment rate is around 20 per cent, or three times larger than the official surveyed rate of 5.9 per cent, but the report was subsequently retracted without an explanation.”

https://www.scmp.com/print/economy/china-economy/article/3081953/coronavirus-chinas-economic-woes-could-be-worse-thought

Edited April 29, 2020 by Ausmumof3