wuhan - coronavirus

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opinion/coronavirus-immunity.html#click=https://t.co/czwcqgmjR6
 

good overview by an epidemiologist on what we know about potential immunity so far.  We don’t know for sure but best guesses is maybe two years based on what we know about other coronaviruses

[mathnerd]

1 hour ago, Arcadia said:

My husband’s dept (other than the lab technicians) are working longer hours to get less work done just because it’s less efficient for them to work from home. So I won’t be surprised if the “performance bonus” portion of their pay gets decreased or eliminated. 

However, that is different from Broadcom asking non essential employees to work. https://coloradosun.com/2020/04/23/broadcom-colorado-covid-coronavirus-work/

My friend said that many broadcom employees who feel that their job description does not categorize them as an essential services employee are complaining to the County Health Office. I guess that they feel that they are being threatened to show up at work or else face consequences, which creates an unproductive environment and does not conform to local corporate culture in the Valley. Considering that the sheriff's office and the DA are shutting down local small businesses that are considered non-essential, I think that they will ask the company for an explanation, at the least. Broadcom gives every employee a mask and gloves when they enter the building (as do most big employers in the bay area).

[Melissa in Australia]

5 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/nhs-warns-of-rise-in-children-with-new-illness-that-may-be-linked-to-coronavirus?__twitter_impression=true
 

I’m not 100pc today (headache and sore throat that hopefully isn’t anything to do with COVID19) but wondering if anyone can make sense of this.  I think I could work it out if I was feeling better 

i can’t figure out if it’s saying Kawasaki syndrome is something the kids already had and that COVID made it more complicated or if the COVID is causing it.

they are thinking there is  connection with the increase of children with the inflammatory symptoms and coronavirus. maybe it is how it presents in children

 

here is another link https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-28/kawasaki-disease-children-with-coronavirus-covid-19/12193456

[Ausmumof3]

7 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

they are thinking there is  connection with the increase of children with the inflammatory symptoms and coronavirus. maybe it is how it presents in children

 

here is another link https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-28/kawasaki-disease-children-with-coronavirus-covid-19/12193456

Glad it’s relatively rare but 20 cases in bergamot sounds scary 

[TravelingChris]

12 hours ago, square_25 said:

Yeah, that happened in Washington, too. If few enough people are infected, then you really do get an offset. 

But that's really when a small percentage is infected. 

Elective surgeries include organ transplants, not immediately needed heart operations, cancer operations, epilepsy operations, etc.  Those people are dying directly from not getting the operations.  Then, of course, there are all the orthopedic operations were people lose function permanently by delays or just lose hope because the government has refused so many people to get proper pain medicaions while they wait that suicides of those delayed operation patients increase.  We know that the war on properly prescribed opioids is causing suicides by people who can no longer get the pain relief they need.  Cutting elective operations does the same thing.

[Ausmumof3]

And it looks like yet more indications of the virus potentially having an impact on blood vessels not just lungs etc.  I feel like at some point once they work out what these impacts are and why they happen in some people not others it’s going to help so much with improving treatment.

[TravelingChris]

5 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/nhs-warns-of-rise-in-children-with-new-illness-that-may-be-linked-to-coronavirus?__twitter_impression=true
 

I’m not 100pc today (headache and sore throat that hopefully isn’t anything to do with COVID19) but wondering if anyone can make sense of this.  I think I could work it out if I was feeling better 

i can’t figure out if it’s saying Kawasaki syndrome is something the kids already had and that COVID made it more complicated or if the COVID is causing it.

Kawasaki is an autoimmune condition often triggered by a previous virus and sometimes by carpet cleanings.

Edited April 28, 2020 by TravelingChris

[TravelingChris]

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yes this was what was making me crabby!  Also given that they are doctors presumably that have a decent education in math.  I’m trying hard to think they just got it wrong but I’m afraid they were being deliberately deceptive.

UUUUhhhhh no they do not.  My son worked as a pharmacy tech before and had to constantly correct physician's math mistakes in prescribing.  My primary care doctor told me he didn't go into engineering because of the math.  Even though I had only 1 hour of sleep, I was better able to do math than my pulmonologist in doing equivalent doses between two forms of steroids- prednisone and Medrol.  It wasn't that he didn't remember the dosage equivalents but that I was better at doing the math behind the proportions.

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, TravelingChris said:

Elective surgeries include organ transplants, not immediately needed heart operations, cancer operations, epilepsy operations, etc.  Those people are dying directly from not getting the operations.  Then, of course, there are all the orthopedic operations were people lose function permanently by delays or just lose hope because the government has refused so many people to get proper pain medicaions while they wait that suicides of those delayed operation patients increase.  We know that the war on properly prescribed opioids is causing suicides by people who can no longer get the pain relief they need.  Cutting elective operations does the same thing.

As far as I know the main reason for cutting elective surgery here was because we couldn’t get the PPE and supplies required.  They are reopening now here because we have PPE again.  I think elective surgery is a kind of stupid name because it makes people think we’re talking about really unimportant stuff.  Whereas really it just means it’s not an emergency right now.

[Ausmumof3]

49 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

UUUUhhhhh no they do not.  My son worked as a pharmacy tech before and had to constantly correct physician's math mistakes in prescribing.  My primary care doctor told me he didn't go into engineering because of the math.  Even though I had only 1 hour of sleep, I was better able to do math than my pulmonologist in doing equivalent doses between two forms of steroids- prednisone and Medrol.  It wasn't that he didn't remember the dosage equivalents but that I was better at doing the math behind the proportions.

Seems nuts.  To get into medicine here you have to score crazy high on your SACE.

[Ausmumof3]

58 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

Kawasaki is an autoimmune condition often triggered by a previous virus and sometimes by carpet cleanings.

Carpet cleanings?  Is that because of mould or virus living in the carpet or the chemicals.  Weird.  I saw in one of the discussions it can happen pretty rarely after flu vaccine as well (although not as often as from the flu itself)

[Pawz4me]

A dog in NC has tested positive for Covid 19. This is believed to be the first dog in the US to test positive.

 

Quote

A Chapel Hill family's dog has tested positive for coronavirus.

The family was involved in a study at Duke in which the mother, father and son tested positive for COVID-19. During this study, the family had their pets tested and found out their pug, Winston, had coronavirus.

Dr. Chris Woods, the principal investigator of the Duke study, said, "The virus that causes COVID-19 was detected," and he believes it's the first known positive case in a dog in the United States.

The family's mother, Heather McLean, is a pediatrician at Duke. She said their dog was experiencing mild symptoms. “Pugs are a little unusual in that they cough and sneeze in a very strange way. So it almost seems like he was gagging, and there was one day when he didn’t want to eat his breakfast, and if you know pugs you know they love to eat, so that seemed very unusual,” she said.

“(The dog) licks all of our dinner plates and sleeps in my mom’s bed, and we’re the ones who put our faces into his face. So, it makes sense that he got (coronavirus),” said McLean's son, Ben.

The McLeans have four pets: two dogs, a cat and a lizard. The family said the dogs and cat were tested and only Winston tested positive.

They took part in the Molecular and Epidemiological Study of Suspected Infection (MESSI) research study on April 1. “They all came out to our house and did blood samples," McLean said of the study. "For the humans, they swabbed our noses as well as our mouths, and for the animals they did oral swabs for both dogs and the cat.”

McLean's daughter, Sydney, was the only member of the family not to test positive for COVID-19. The family's father, Samuel, works in the emergency room at UNC Hospitals.

The family said Winston was only sick for a few days and is doing much better.

“Hopefully we’ll learn more through the research study, and I think because there’s not a lot of studies and sampling pets, we just don’t know yet. My advice is just not to get too worried about it,” McLean said.

 

[TracyP]

4 hours ago, calbear said:

This was a really good look at Sweden. I especially liked the more detailed information regarding population density compared to other Nordic countries. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html

I didn't like the focus on death rates at the beginning of the article. It's a misleading way to handle the numbers since we know the number of positive cases is wildly inaccurate.

After that though, I appreciated the article. They achieved 26% immunity in Stockholm without overwhelming their hospital system, shutting down elementary schools, or majorly disrupting their economy. They believe they are past the peak and subsequent waves will now be easier to deal with because of that immunity. It'll be interesting to see how their appoach looks when we have some hindsight.

[Ausmumof3]

6 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

A dog in NC has tested positive for Covid 19. This is believed to be the first dog in the US to test positive.

 

 

Interesting that it was a pug.  I wonder if they are more susceptible due to the shortened/squish nasal passages 

[Ausmumof3]

5 minutes ago, TracyP said:

I didn't like the focus on death rates at the beginning of the article. It's a misleading way to handle the numbers since we know the number of positive cases is wildly inaccurate.

After that though, I appreciated the article. They achieved 26% immunity in Stockholm without overwhelming their hospital system, shutting down elementary schools, or majorly disrupting their economy. They believe they are past the peak and subsequent waves will now be easier to deal with because of that immunity. It'll be interesting to see how their appoach looks when we have some hindsight.

The death rates are per million of total population I think not per positive test.  You can see them at worldometer.  It’s not the same as case fatality (which agreed is not a good measure based on data at this point).  It is a useful measure.  Ultimately other countries may end up with similar rates but drawn out over a longer period but we don’t know that for sure yet.  At this point it’s not looking great.

i can’t find it again but I’ve also seen an article by someone living in Sweden saying advocating for no lockdowns based on Sweden is kind of inaccurate.  They have a population that’s very socially conscious and more likely to socially distance based on recommendations rather than needing it to be enforced.  I don’t have any personal experience to know if that’s a true observation though.  

[TracyP]

16 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

A dog in NC has tested positive for Covid 19. This is believed to be the first dog in the US to test positive.

 

 

The idea that you could pass covid to cats and dogs seemed so bizarre to me. I thought we couldn't pass anything to our pets... I guess my information is old, though, because apparently the flu can also be passed to cats and dogs. And the mumps, fwiw.

Apparently they don't think colds can be passed to pets. Since some colds are caused by coronavirus, I wonder if those colds can actually be passed, but we have been unaware. Or if there is something unique about this coronavirus. Regardless, it's disappointing to hear that. 🙁

[TracyP]

9 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The death rates are per million of total population I think not per positive test.  You can see them at worldometer.  It’s not the same as case fatality (which agreed is not a good measure based on data at this point).  It is a useful measure.  Ultimately other countries may end up with similar rates but drawn out over a longer period but we don’t know that for sure yet.  At this point it’s not looking great.

i can’t find it again but I’ve also seen an article by someone living in Sweden saying advocating for no lockdowns based on Sweden is kind of inaccurate.  They have a population that’s very socially conscious and more likely to socially distance based on recommendations rather than needing it to be enforced.  I don’t have any personal experience to know if that’s a true observation though.  

Oh, I didn't catch that. Calling it the death rate threw me off. Well, that they have had far more deaths is indisputable. What remains to be seen is if others spend the next year or two catching up, just doing it more slowly.

The following is not to you Ausmum, I'm just rambling to myself... 😉

I'm not sure what the takeaway from Sweden is yet. Lockdowns are clearly necessary in the middle of an out of control outbreak. And lockdowns (real ones) are essential if you want to eradicate covid. I'm starting to wonder if lockdowns are not the best first step though - which is a total 180 for me. 

The unfortunate thing for all of us is that we just don't know yet. What NZ is doing is awesome. But what if 2-3 years pass without a vaccine? Will eradicating covid still look like the wise decision? What if the rest of the world is going back to normal with some decent treatments and fairly high level of immunity? To be clear, if I was NZ I would 100% support eradication. Without hesitation. But only with hindsight will we be able to tell for certain who did this "right".

[Ausmumof3]

8 minutes ago, TracyP said:

Oh, I didn't catch that. Calling it the death rate threw me off. Well, that they have had far more deaths is indisputable. What remains to be seen is if others spend the next year or two catching up, just doing it more slowly.

The following is not to you Ausmum, I'm just rambling to myself... 😉

I'm not sure what the takeaway from Sweden is yet. Lockdowns are clearly necessary in the middle of an out of control outbreak. And lockdowns (real ones) are essential if you want to eradicate covid. I'm starting to wonder if lockdowns are not the best first step though - which is a total 180 for me. 

The unfortunate thing for all of us is that we just don't know yet. What NZ is doing is awesome. But what if 2-3 years pass without a vaccine? Will eradicating covid still look like the wise decision? What if the rest of the world is going back to normal with some decent treatments and fairly high level of immunity? To be clear, if I was NZ I would 100% support eradication. Without hesitation. But only with hindsight will we be able to tell for certain who did this "right".

100 percent legitimate questions.  That is why the Australian strategy is not supposed to be elimination.  Except we are kind of heading that direction I think possibly without meaning to.  I have no idea how they will handle that because opening borders or deliberately reintroducing it sure as heck won’t be popular.  I guess we at least get to learn from the rest of the worlds science what might be the best way to treat it.  Or maybe eventually it will just die out in other countries and we’ll avoid it altogether. 

[Ausmumof3]

A what if musing that comes from the previous question.  For me because I have loved ones in the risk category I want to eliminate Covid even if it’s not the best economic decision.  I’m even happy to push it out a year or two if it gives me a year or two more with my loved ones.

what if we as a society did treat every single public health problem as if it was our loved one.  What if we treated all drug addicts and alcoholics as if it was our own kids?  What if we treated every kid with cancer as if they were our own kid with cancer?  What if we viewed a dangerous bit of road as likely to kill our own family?  Would if we treated every job lost as if it was our own family member that lost their job?  Would all of that be unaffordable?  Or would we create a stronger healthier society with the kind of income to support those measures?

I may have spent too long in bed sick and thinking today.  But I’m wondering why is it always so easy to look at statistics as if they only ever happen to other people?

Edited April 28, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[TracyP]

2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

100 percent legitimate questions.  That is why the Australian strategy is not supposed to be elimination.  Except we are kind of heading that direction I think possibly without meaning to.  I have no idea how they will handle that because opening borders or deliberately reintroducing it sure as heck won’t be popular.  I guess we at least get to learn from the rest of the worlds science what might be the best way to treat it.  Or maybe eventually it will just die out in other countries and we’ll avoid it altogether. 

Yeah, simply buying time seems worth it to me in such a fast moving situation.

[Pen]

46 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The death rates are per million of total population I think not per positive test.  You can see them at worldometer.  It’s not the same as case fatality (which agreed is not a good measure based on data at this point).  It is a useful measure.  Ultimately other countries may end up with similar rates but drawn out over a longer period but we don’t know that for sure yet.  At this point it’s not looking great.

i can’t find it again but I’ve also seen an article by someone living in Sweden saying advocating for no lockdowns based on Sweden is kind of inaccurate.  They have a population that’s very socially conscious and more likely to socially distance based on recommendations rather than needing it to be enforced.  I don’t have any personal experience to know if that’s a true observation though.  

 

I have relatives who lived in Stockholm who said that it is true (or at least true for non immigrant population).  The culture is different and people are more likely to follow a mere request or guidance as being extremely important.  Also it is not as dense in population as cities like New York City. And there are many single households and small households.  And, it has excellent health care and does not have a big homeless population, nor a big population in poverty and malnutrition. 

[Pen]

6 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

A what if musing that comes from the previous question.  For me because I have loved ones in the risk category I want to eliminate Covid even if it’s not the best economic decision.  I’m even happy to push it out a year or two if it gives me a year or two more with my loved ones.

what if we as a society did treat every single public health problem as if it was our loved one.  What if we treated all drug addicts and alcoholics as if it was our own kids?  What if we treated every kid with cancer as if they were our own kid with cancer?  What if we viewed a dangerous bit of road as likely to kill our own family?  Would if we treated every job lost as if it was our own family member that lost their job?  Would all of that be unaffordable?  Or would we create a stronger healthier society with the kind of income to support those measures?

I may have spent too long in bed sick and thinking today.  But I’m wondering why is it always so easy to look at statistics as if they only ever happen to other people?

 

I think that would be a great way to do it.  It brought tears to my eyes (in a good way) to consider it.

Thank you!!!

[Pen]

16 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

100 percent legitimate questions.  That is why the Australian strategy is not supposed to be elimination.  Except we are kind of heading that direction I think possibly without meaning to.  I have no idea how they will handle that because opening borders or deliberately reintroducing it sure as heck won’t be popular.  I guess we at least get to learn from the rest of the worlds science what might be the best way to treat it.  Or maybe eventually it will just die out in other countries and we’ll avoid it altogether. 

 

If it could be eliminated I think that would be excellent.  It might not be great for short term tourism, but for other things it might be wonderful.  Especially with young people seeming more affected there might be plenty of people willing to spend 14 days in quarantine to be able to then have a year of university without CV19 risk, or longer spa vacations where “quarantine” is more pleasantly worked in as a rest and relax phase to unwind from stresses elsewhere—before perhaps a more active touristy time, or other long term visitation that might help make up for less short tourism.  

 

[TracyP]

35 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Do you have any idea where they are getting that 26% number from? They don’t have an antibody test showing that. That’s their modeled number, right?

Yep, I believe it's their modeling. It gives them a 1% IFR, so it seems reasonable. 

ETA: probably low if anything. Although I'm not sure how many deaths are from Stockholm compared to rest of country.

Edited April 28, 2020 by TracyP

[Guest]

6 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Anyone seen the video by the two doctors floating around social media claiming its all wrong and way more widespread with a death rate close to flu.  It’s making me more cranky than I already am with the headache!  They took the percentage of positive tests from their er and extrapolated it to the entire population.  And everyone is nodding along and saying see we need to open up now.  

Yes, three of my pro-open-now friends had that on their pages yesterday. I did discuss it some with the one friend who is pretty gracious and open-minded. One thing I very much appreciated was another of this friend’s friends is an ER nurse, and she responded. She pointed out some things, like for example, there is not any case inflation/death inflation going on at the hospital where she works, and she knows tons of nurses and medical staff who have been furloughed or had hours cut because their hospitals have not had a huge influx of COVID patients; therefore, case inflation is clearly not happening at those hospitals. (Part of this argument is saying that hospitals are inflating the number of COVID cases/deaths, by labeling any death where COVID is presumed present as a COVID death, even if the person came to the ER with a gunshot wound or had been “hit by a bus”.) 

One of my pro-open-now friends even put this video on our governor’s page. 🙄

[Guest]

6 hours ago, calbear said:

Youtube pulled that video as fake news. Though it has really gone viral. Their math is driving me nutty and irritated as well. They also tried to extrapolate the postiive test rate from testing being done to be the infected population, then they took the total number of deaths and divided it by their extrapolated infected population to tell people that was the risk of dying from Covid 19. Math and understanding math is so important! 

Is there a way I can demonstrate this video has been pulled as fake news? I would like to show that to my singular open minded friend. 

[Pen]

https://qz.com/1842183/sweden-is-taking-a-very-different-approach-to-covid-19/

sweden

[Ausmumof3]

10 minutes ago, Quill said:

Is there a way I can demonstrate this video has been pulled as fake news? I would like to show that to my singular open minded friend. 

https://www.acep.org/corona/COVID-19/covid-19-articles/acep-aaem-joint-statement-on-physician-misinformation/
 

this isn’t about it being pulled but is a statement from the American college of emergency physicians 

[Ausmumof3]

11 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Relevant bit:

"Söderberg-Nauclér said death rates appear to be higher that those cited by the Folkhälsomyndigheten (the Swedish health authority) of 0.1%. Between March 27 and April 3, the government randomly tested 773 people, finding an infection rate of 2.5% in Stockholm. Extrapolating from there, roughly 58,000 people would have been infected, which should have resulted in roughly 58 deaths three weeks later, but Stockholm just passed 1,022 deaths, suggesting a fatality rate closer to 1.7%, she said. She does not see the “plateau” that the authorities are citing and suggests ICUs could still be overwhelmed in a few weeks’ time." 

Right, that's exactly what I'm wondering -- where in the world they are getting that they have so many infected people. They've had an infection rate of 2.5% a few weeks ago, and people have actually been social distancing -- apparently, public transit use is down, restaurant use is down, most theaters are closed, etc. So it's entirely possible they are still at around 10% -- they won't know unless they do some more testing. In that case, they really can't declare victory yet. They seem to be acting as if they'll definitely hit herd immunity and be done, but we see a lot of people in the US lifting lockdowns with a small percent of the population infected still. 

It looks like for Sweden, something like a fifth of the tests is coming back positive, and that's bound to be skewed up. So... I don't know. I'd really like actually randomized antibody testing for them to make decisions by, instead of this kind of modeling. 

The other question raised in the German virologist study is whether other Coronavirus infections give us any immunity.  I haven’t seen any study on this but it might explain why some people just don’t seem to get it when they really should (and are seemingly not just Asymptomatic)   If that was true it could be a naturally limiting factor.

i also read the scientific American article on the bat lady scientist.  The way they found coronavirus in bats the first time was actually with a human antibody test.  Which seemed kind of weird that that would work.

[TracyP]

21 minutes ago, square_25 said:

They have 1287 deaths in Stockholm, but I think that's the whole metro area, which is 2.3 million or so. So I guess if 25% is right, then they have 2300000*0.25 = 575,000 infected, and they are guessing at an IFR of about 1287/575,000 = 0.2%, which seems low. (If you're wondering, the Wikipedia page has all the information by county, which is good, because I can't read Swedish :-P)

The 26% referred to just Stockholm with a population of 975,000. 

21 minutes ago, square_25 said:

They have been reporting consistently lower numbers this week, but their numbers are always so wonky that I don't know exactly what to do with that... no one else jumps from 180 deaths to, like, 2 in a few days, so obviously they have weird reporting lags. 

It's entirely possible that their numbers leveled off not because of herd immunity, but because people got freaked out and started staying home more. I've seen lots of reports that even in the US, behavior changed substantially before lockdowns. 

I think their one antibody study suggested 11% had antibodies, but then they retracted that? Their communications aren't great, I have to say. I've been watching them for a while now, and it's hard to interpret their stuff. 

I'm definitely not ready to take a stance on whether Sweden has done the right thing. I'm just not yet convinced that they did the wrong thing. They have definitely changed their behavior as time went on. Is someone suggesting that their numbers leveled off because of herd immunity? I didn't see that.

[Ausmumof3]

34 minutes ago, TracyP said:

The 26% referred to just Stockholm with a population of 975,000. 

I'm definitely not ready to take a stance on whether Sweden has done the right thing. I'm just not yet convinced that they did the wrong thing. They have definitely changed their behavior as time went on. Is someone suggesting that their numbers leveled off because of herd immunity? I didn't see that.

I think there could also be two different questions here.  One is 

Did Sweden do the right thing for Sweden?

and the other is 

Would Sweden’s approach work for the rest of the world?  

 

 

[Jaybee]

I'm glad to see the youtube videos of the two doctors was pulled. Not because it wouldn't be great if they were right, but because of my seeing it posted on social media as truth. But I also know that most of the people I know who posted it will just see the removal as another sign of how the doctors are being persecuted for speaking out against what mainstream media wants them to say. More conspiracy theories, more division, and it all just makes me really sad that things have come to this--and sad to think about where they are going.

[TCB]

14 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

I'm glad to see the youtube videos of the two doctors was pulled. Not because it wouldn't be great if they were right, but because of my seeing it posted on social media as truth. But I also know that most of the people I know who posted it will just see the removal as another sign of how the doctors are being persecuted for speaking out against what mainstream media wants them to say. More conspiracy theories, more division, and it all just makes me really sad that things have come to this--and sad to think about where they are going.

Absolutely agree with you! Our community seems so dysfunctional. I do need to keep reminding myself that it may just be the vocal minority expressing bizarre ideas. I hope so!

[RootAnn]

3 hours ago, TracyP said:

Apparently they don't think colds can be passed to pets. Since some colds are caused by coronavirus, I wonder if those colds can actually be passed, but we have been unaware.

Having lived with cats & children, I believe (but cannot prove) that humans & pets are capable of passing colds (and gastro illnesses) back & forth between themselves depending on interaction.

[I'm also one who believes you can catch the flu from your annual flu shot,  too, so take my beliefs with however much salt you need.]

But this virus acts so much differently than so many before it that I believe it could go any which way. I am occasionally surprised by the new info that comes out,  but mostly just nod my head and think, "yep, that figures."

[Ausmumof3]

7 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

Having lived with cats & children, I believe (but cannot prove) that humans & pets are capable of passing colds (and gastro illnesses) back & forth between themselves depending on interaction.

[I'm also one who believes you can catch the flu from your annual flu shot,  too, so take my beliefs with however much salt you need.]

But this virus acts so much differently than so many before it that I believe it could go any which way. I am occasionally surprised by the new info that comes out,  but mostly just nod my head and think, "yep, that figures."

I wonder if it’s also that we just don’t normally do this much research on respiratory viruses because they aren’t that serious.  They might all have weird features.

[Ausmumof3]

 

so this is the latest in the Coronavirus truth videos!  This is making me really angry.  She called nurses cowards for not going into patient rooms, complained about a lack of cpr and people not changing PPE enough.  
 

ugh because there’s not enough PPE!  For crying out loud.  And they aren’t using hydrochloroquine (or whatever it is I can never spell it!)  because the most recent studies showed it increased deaths not reduced them!   

think I’m going to need to clean up my Facebook feed 

[mumto2]

2 hours ago, Pen said:

 

If it could be eliminated I think that would be excellent.  It might not be great for short term tourism, but for other things it might be wonderful.  Especially with young people seeming more affected there might be plenty of people willing to spend 14 days in quarantine to be able to then have a year of university without CV19 risk, or longer spa vacations where “quarantine” is more pleasantly worked in as a rest and relax phase to unwind from stresses elsewhere—before perhaps a more active touristy time, or other long term visitation that might help make up for less short tourism.  

 

Tourism is a whole new can of worms.  Been reading about how Disney will be reopening.....mainly speculation in local press.   Plans are out there to do things like hotel rooms being deep cleaned and then being rested for two to three days,  the whole park ride experience being essentially on a fast pass so never a line etc.  

I am also reading all the U.K. press ....... U.K. is probably going to be requiring all returning residents to quarantine for 14 days when they lift stay at home.  My family has no problems with that for us in our return England as we would have certainly restricted ourselves naturally.  Many of the people around us are vulnerable there.   Lots of conversations in our household right now about all the other visitors who need to comply that won’t ...........

[TCB]

59 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

 

so this is the latest in the Coronavirus truth videos!  This is making me really angry.  She called nurses cowards for not going into patient rooms, complained about a lack of cpr and people not changing PPE enough.  
 

ugh because there’s not enough PPE!  For crying out loud.  And they aren’t using hydrochloroquine (or whatever it is I can never spell it!)  because the most recent studies showed it increased deaths not reduced them!   

think I’m going to need to clean up my Facebook feed 

A lot of what she’s saying sounds like her misinterpreting things. I don’t know what they are doing in NYC, of course, because I’m not there, but she talks about things we are doing but puts a completely different interpretation on them. We use extension tubing so that pumps are outside the room but that is so we aren’t gowning up every 5 minutes to trouble shoot an infusion pump or hang a new bag etc - it doesn’t mean we’re not assessing the patient, or not going in the rooms at all. Some of what she describes might happen if they are overwhelmed with patients - which it sounds like they have been.

It also sounds like she’s really out of date with the information. I wonder when this was recorded? Some of those treatment options were being discussed a few weeks ago but I don’t think the evidence has been there for them.  We are not overwhelmed at all where I am. We are conserving PPE as much as possible so we do go from positive to positive pt in the same PPE, just change gloves etc, but we don’t go positive to rule out. We can go from rule out to positive though.

[Ausmumof3]

2 minutes ago, TCB said:

A lot of what she’s saying sounds like her misinterpreting things. I don’t know what they are doing in NYC, of course, because I’m not there, but she talks about things we are doing but puts a completely different interpretation on them. We use extension tubing so that pumps are outside the room but that is so we aren’t gowning up every 5 minutes to trouble shoot an infusion pump or hang a new bag etc - it doesn’t mean we’re not assessing the patient, or not going in the rooms at all. Some of what she describes might happen if they are overwhelmed with patients - which it sounds like they have been.

It also sounds like she’s really out of date with the information. I wonder when this was recorded? Some of those treatment options were being discussed a few weeks ago but I don’t think the evidence has been there for them.  We are not overwhelmed at all where I am. We are conserving PPE as much as possible so we do go from positive to positive pt in the same PPE, just change gloves etc, but we don’t go positive to rule out. We can go from rule out to positive though.

That’s kind of what I thought.  It’s nice to have it confirmed though.  I’m glad you’re not overwhelmed.  Thanks for what you do and stay safe 🙂 

[BeachGal]

@square_25 IMO, we should be trying ozone autohemotherapy, a cheap therapy that’s easy to administer and has few, if any, bad side effects. Italy, Spain (Ibiza) and China are all now using it. It’s working very well. They are using it on patients who were on the verge of being intubated and found that almost all of them were able to avoid it and went on to recover quite well. It is very good at controlling cytokine storm.

Ozone autohemotherapy: Medical-grade oxygen from a tank flows into an ozone generator which quickly converts the O2 to O3. The ozone gas then flows through a tube into a sterilized glass “jar” which holds blood recently removed from the patient. They are removing about 7/8 cup of blood for Covid patients. The ozone is bubbled into the blood and mixed. Then the ozonated blood is returned to the patient. All equipment must be able to withstand the oxidating effect of ozone. Only a few places make them in the US. I own one and use it four times per week myself.

This is an old treatment that was used before antibiotics were discovered. O3 (ozone) is unstable and will break down into mostly O2 but some O3 will remain for awhile. Usually, a mixture of about 92-98% oxygen and 8-2% ozone is used.

Edited April 28, 2020 by BeachGal

[Ausmumof3]

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/coronavirus-australia-doctors-call-for-volunteers-as-perth-vaccine-trial-gets-underway-c-1003861.amp?utm_campaign=share-icons&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&tid=1588065856478&__twitter_impression=true
 

Perth are doing human trials in a vaccine developed in China.  

[Pen]

1 hour ago, mumto2 said:

Tourism is a whole new can of worms.  Been reading about how Disney will be reopening.....mainly speculation in local press.   Plans are out there to do things like hotel rooms being deep cleaned and then being rested for two to three days,  the whole park ride experience being essentially on a fast pass so never a line etc.  

I am also reading all the U.K. press ....... U.K. is probably going to be requiring all returning residents to quarantine for 14 days when they lift stay at home.  My family has no problems with that for us in our return England as we would have certainly restricted ourselves naturally.  Many of the people around us are vulnerable there.   Lots of conversations in our household right now about all the other visitors who need to comply that won’t ...........

 

I mentioned tourism because I thought it might be a significant issue for Australia if they were to get CV19 eradicated within the country. 

A lot of business travel could shift to teleconference, goods could probably still be moved in and out...

[Pen]

 

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

 And they aren’t using hydrochloroquine (or whatever it is I can never spell it!)  because the most recent studies showed it increased deaths not reduced them!   

 

Im not watching the video because I don’t wish to upset myself. 

 

The Hydroxychloroquine studies I have seen that purportedly showed it increased deaths were bad studies. (I did a screen shot of a page showing a part of problem on the scientific developments thread).   I have heard enough anecdotal personal reports of people who were desperately ill and turned around after Hydroxychloroquine (with zinc and or azythromycin) not to dismiss it, myself. 

 

[Pen]

20 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Any studies?

 

Things I have found showed promising but needs more study type results. Maybe @BeachGal will have something more definitive.

 I am also interested in external use of UV which was also an older treatment—though it doesn’t oxygenate at same time as it helps to deactivate viruses.  Otoh light has an effect on the heme/porphyrin/hemoglobin pathway and may be useful in so far as there seems to be a blood aspect to CV19, not just respiratory (or maybe even a blood damage issue underlying respiratory). 

Edited April 28, 2020 by Pen

[BeachGal]

21 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Any studies?

 

Four studies are underway in China and one in Italy. Don’t know about Spain. Some countries have been using ozone therapy for a long time. Cuba, Mexico and India are likely using it in some areas at least. Germany and Austria might be, too.

****

https://theibizan.com/ozone-therapy-proving-successful-in-covid-19-patients/

The Nuestra Señora del Rosario Polyclinica in Ibiza is the first in Spain to use the Ozone technique in treating Covid-19 patients, with success.

In a press release the clinic said “Many patients who were about to be intubated and connected to mechanical ventilation have, thanks to ozone therapy, not only avoided it but improved to the point of not requiring oxygen with just a few treatment sessions.” 

The clinic also stated that they are seeing improvements in patients after just ‘2 or 3 treatment sessions’. Ozone therapy has the benefit of improving oxygenation at the tissue level and therefore reduces the inflammatory response suffered by patients.

Italy and China Trial Ozone

At the Santa María della Misericordia University Hospital in Udine, Italy, 36 patients with Covid-19 pneumonia who had respiratory failure were administered Ozone therapy. Only 3% required intubation compared to the usual 15%. There is a high mortality of intubated patients and given a fifth were spared intubation; it is an achievement to highlight. There are also four clinical trials underway in China and the provisional results could not be more hopeful.

Nuestra Señora del Rosario Polyclinic

“In Spain, only we have begun to administer it with the mandatory authorisation of the Quality Committee of the hospital centre, and the results have been spectacular,” says Dr. Alberto Hernández, Assistant Physician for Anaesthesia and Resuscitation at the Nuestra Señora del Rosario Polyclinic in Ibiza. “We have registered a clinical trial, but we need to tell the world that Ozone is a very effective and beneficial therapy in these patients and that we must immediately incorporate it into the treatment of these patients.”

Dr. José Baeza, President of the Spanish Society of Ozone Therapy and Vice President of the World Federation of Ozone Therapy, states that “given the absence of an effective treatment or a vaccine and in the context of the current health emergency ” All hospitalised patients should receive Ozone therapy as the clear benefit is evident, and Ozone therapy has no significant side effects.”

Approval

On April 4, the therapy was authorised for it’s first use at the Polyclinic. After presenting the potential benefits of Ozone therapy at a medical scientific session, the centre’s group of experts in Covid-19 infection: Drs Montserrat Viñals and Asunción Pablos, from the Internal Medicine service, Dr. Adriana Martín from the Service of Intensive Medicine, and Dr. María Victoria Velasco from the Emergency Service of the Nuestra Señora del Rosario Polyclinica in Ibiza, gave their approval to the protocol for the administration of Ozone in patients with Covid-19 presented by Dr. Alberto Hernández.

The First Patient

A 49-year-old man who had already required ICU admission was deteriorating on the ward. He had deteriorated to the point that he required oxygen at the highest concentration and yet it was oxygenating his lungs poorly. Intubation and connection to a ventilator was planned, but surprisingly, after the first session of Ozone therapy, the improvement was significant and oxygen requirements could be decreased.

Dr. Alberto Hernández explained that “the improvement after the first session of Ozone treatment was spectacular. We were surprised, his respiratory rate normalised, his oxygen levels increased, and we were able to stop supplying him with as much oxygen since the patient was able to oxygenate himself. To our surprise, when we carried out an analytical control, we observed how Ferritin, an analysis determination that is being used as a prognostic marker in this disease, not only had not followed the upward trend, but had decreased significantly; that decline continued in the following days. This result encouraged us to administer it to other patients who are following the same improvement as our first patient. “

We Will Help Other Hospitals

Dr. Hernández said “Let no one hesitate to contact us in order to establish the appropriate circuits and structure to be able to incorporate Ozone therapy as soon as possible in the different hospital centres that wish to do so.”

From the Polyclinic Group, Francisco Vilás, its CEO, pointed out that “we will be happy to contribute and help any hospital that asks us for help, in such exceptional circumstances as those we are experiencing that we can contribute to help in this unfortunate pandemic. Full of pride, we will make our human and technical resources and our experience with Ozone therapy available to those who request it.”

****

Italy is now using it in at least 17 hospitals.

Here is a translated article from Italy's La Repubblica:

https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/04/06/news/coronavirus_l_ozonoterapia_evita_la_terapia_intensiva-253290022/?refresh_ce

Coronavirus, ozone therapy avoids intensive therapy

By Luana de Francisco

April 6 2020

Experimentation in Udine: out of 36 patients with pneumonia and respiratory difficulties only one was intubated. Treatment, associated with antivirals, reduces lung damage and slows inflammation. Describes the Amato De Monte protocol, the Englaro case doctor.

The most effective clinical response could come from ozone therapy in patients who have contracted Covid-19 and struggle to avoid hospitalization in intensive care. Proof of this are the results obtained from the trial launched at the Udine hospital, where out of 36 patients with pneumonia and breathing difficulties, only one was intubated: the others have all improved and some have even been discharged from the hospital.

The development of the protocol and the request to AIFA

The intuition to take advantage of the ozone therapy against coronavirus bears the signature of the director of the Department of Anesthesia and Resuscitation of the "Central Friuli" University Health Authority, Amato De Monte. The same who, in 2009, accompanied Eluana Englaro, in a vegetative coma for 17 years, on the path of gradual suspension of nutrition and hydration. Together with the infectious disease specialist Carlo Tascini, who directs the infectious diseases clinic, and a team of colleagues, he has developed a protocol that could revolutionize the approach to treatment and which, not surprisingly, has already attracted the interest of specialists all over Italy. It is precisely from the data obtained so far that the request for authorization from the Italian Medicines Agency and the Ethics Committee of the Spallanzani Institute in Rome started to proceed with a study on 200 Covid-19 patients. In order to aim at its recognition from the methodological point of view at the level of the international scientific community.

How the procedure works

The treatment of patients with ozone therapy associated with antiviral drugs has therefore shown a slowing of inflammation and a reduction of lung damage. The procedure requires 200 milliliters of blood to be taken from the patient, allowed to interact with the ozone for about ten minutes and then re-injected. So three or four times at most. In other words, the infusion of ozone helps to strengthen the body's response in the fight against the effects of the infection in progress.

Ozone therapy, moreover, in the Friuli hospitals of Udine and Tolmezzo is by no means a novelty. And in Italy, among those who practice and teach it for some time, not surprisingly, there is De Monte. "To be exact, since 1996," explains the primary, who is also a teacher at the ozone therapy course organized at the University of Siena by Professor Emma Borrelli, a student of Professor Velio Bocci, the first to bring the practice to our country. "Before the coronavirus broke out - reports De Monte - a study had already been approved at the hospital in Udine to use it on patients with vascular problems in the lower limbs. I know that in other hospitals it is being used in ICU. We too had started from there, but wrongly, because we realized that at that point it was too late for the importance of the damage caused to the lungs. It is so - he continues - that, together with colleague Tascini, we decided to see how it worked if applied early, on patients who risked being intubated, because with impaired breathing and already in ventilation with a helmet or CPAP ".

Improvements in three sessions

The result is there for all to see. "After only three sessions - continues De Monte - we have seen sensational improvements, with a decisive reduction in the need for oxygen support". In short, it is difficult to imagine that, in the face of these findings, the same cannot be obtained even on a wider audience of patients. In any case, in the worst case scenario the therapy does not work: there are no side effects. At this point, therefore, the difference could be the time factor. "The hope is to get an answer as soon as possible - concludes De Monte - because the more immediate its use, the greater the help we will be able to give."

[Pen]

2 hours ago, mumto2 said:

Tourism is a whole new can of worms.  Been reading about how Disney will be reopening.....mainly speculation in local press.   Plans are out there to do things like hotel rooms being deep cleaned and then being rested for two to three days,  the whole park ride experience being essentially on a fast pass so never a line etc.  

I am also reading all the U.K. press ....... U.K. is probably going to be requiring all returning residents to quarantine for 14 days when they lift stay at home.  My family has no problems with that for us in our return England as we would have certainly restricted ourselves naturally.  Many of the people around us are vulnerable there.   Lots of conversations in our household right now about all the other visitors who need to comply that won’t ...........

 

Adding— I guess UK too is an island country (though not well separated from mainland), and could conceivably become a CV19 eradication area, like Greenland, NZ etc.  It doesn’t seem as likely to me given case numbers, however.  

 

[TCB]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

That’s kind of what I thought.  It’s nice to have it confirmed though.  I’m glad you’re not overwhelmed.  Thanks for what you do and stay safe 🙂 

Just thinking about this further - I can imagine things being all kinds of horrible in a situation in which they are overwhelmed! Imagining this was what gave me sleepless nights at the start of this whole thing. I was really bracing myself for all kinds of horrible situations at work. Things are really controlled here so I feel more relaxed, however, our state sounds like it is going to pretty much open up whole hog again on Monday so the sleeplessness may return. It makes me nervous again. Not sure what the answer is. I really think the answer is for everyone to take it upon themselves to be really cautious and careful - go to work and be careful and find good ways of doing things carefully, go shopping for necessities and be careful, and then stay home and around your own family. But I have very little confidence this is what will happen here. As soon as things had shut down (and we have not had an enforced, hard, lockdown) the "government are violating our rights" talk started.

[SKL]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

 

Im not watching the video because I don’t wish to upset myself. 

 

The Hydroxychloroquine studies I have seen that purportedly showed it increased deaths were bad studies. (I did a screen shot of a page showing a part of problem on the scientific developments thread).   I have heard enough anecdotal personal reports of people who were desperately ill and turned around after Hydroxychloroquine (with zinc and or azythromycin) not to dismiss it, myself. 

 

Same.

I think results are skewed by how doctors decide whom to try it on - often folks who are most likely to die in any case.  So then if they die, it probably isn't because of the drug.

[mumto2]

8 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Adding— I guess UK too is an island country (though not well separated from mainland), and could conceivably become a CV19 eradication area, like Greenland, NZ etc.  It doesn’t seem as likely to me given case numbers, however.  

 

Trying to decide how to phrase this.... not a political statement.  The main problem with this is the U.K. is really not an island nation but on two islands......one with a very open border with an EU country.  That is always hanging out there when policy is decided.  Lots of issues.  Locking itself onto one island or two probably can never happen realistically.

.I totally believe the island with England, Scotland and Wales could get the numbers way down.  They could lock themselves off except for the Ireland issue .   We have no physical bridges so just close the Chunnel...........it could be done but not expecting it.  The need to get the economy started with Brexit feels more pressing to the government and I wish they would give it a couple more weeks at least.  There are so many issues that are so political with NHS, etc.  plus personally think the drinking culture there creates covidiots in greater numbers.  

 My village has no cases, lots of older citizens,  and many commuters ......some who normally work in London a couple of days a week but live in the village full time.  Most of our friends spread across the country are actually in similar situations.  Locked down with no or few cases.  The exception is the dc’s friend who is a nurse in a care home that has patients with Covid. So far she is healthy.  She is married and not living at her family home, her poor husband is American and must be very...... horrified.  He hasn’t lived there very long.  
 

Most of my British friends are being very careful by US standards as most have not even left their homes for shopping.  That includes my younger friends .  They have truly locked themselves down and that is the case in many places there.  Making scrubs for the NHS is the creative focus not masks is the focus.  I am actually mailing masks there to people who will not be able to make there own when they finally realize they want them....vulnerable friends.

         

[mathnerd]

2 hours ago, Pen said:

The Hydroxychloroquine studies I have seen that purportedly showed it increased deaths were bad studies. (I did a screen shot of a page showing a part of problem on the scientific developments thread).   I have heard enough anecdotal personal reports of people who were desperately ill and turned around after Hydroxychloroquine (with zinc and or azythromycin) not to dismiss it, myself. 

From the experiences of a couple of my friends who were infected, Hydroxychloroquine is not given by doctors because they think that the risks outweigh the benefits. But, my friends managed to convince the medical team to give it to them because they had been on charity trips to Africa before and had taken Hydroxychloroquine with no side effects at that time. It was not easy for them to get it prescribed, but they were convinced that it was the right thing to do and it took them a few days to make the case and get it prescribed. They have both recovered fully and there are others in their workplace who also got infected and who had successful outcomes using Hydr.oxychloroquine. That's the anecdotal report from my social circle regarding the use of Hydroxychloroquine for covid19 treatment.