At what point would you lock down again?

[mommyoffive]

2 hours ago, Toocrazy!! said:

I did the opposite of lock down and went on a scheduled long weekend trip. It’s crazy out here. I’ve been in the airport for 4 hours. It’s nuts, so incredibly crowded. People on top of each other. Masks, but not well worn. There’s no way I don’t get covid out of this day. 

Oh that is so stressful.  Dh traveled for work about a month ago and said it was so busy, crowded, and horrible that we wouldn't be do that for a long time.  But now with the increased Delta numbers I would be so freaked.  

[TheReader]

3 minutes ago, SKL said:

Am I the only one who got the vax only so I could safely be around at-risk (vaxed or unvaxed) people, and now I feel like there was no point?

And I'm back to thinking that maybe I should go out and catch it on purpose so I don't have to spend another 1.5 years staying away from loved ones.  😕

Not the only one. 

It's so wearing, tiring, depressing, blah.  

With MIL being high risk, we're back to outdoors only, at a distance, with masks. Even though we all (her included) are vaccinated. 

Why why why why why. 

[TheReader]

1 minute ago, ktgrok said:

I think there is still a point, but for most people we got it both to not spread it and to avoid time in a hospital. That said, yeah, it's super frustrating. My hope is that my mom and dad can get boosters which seem to really improve protection, so I feel better being around them. 

I'm also going to start testing before seeing them. 

Okay, thank you. Yes. That is part of it. As I'm in a "woe is me, Covid sucks" funk at the moment, I needed that reminder. Thank you. 

 

[Matryoshka]

5 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

I think there is still a point, but for most people we got it both to not spread it and to avoid time in a hospital. That said, yeah, it's super frustrating. My hope is that my mom and dad can get boosters which seem to really improve protection, so I feel better being around them. 

I'm also going to start testing before seeing them. 

Yeah, I'm still happy to know that dh and I, who at our ages are not in the highest risk group but far from low risk with no vax, will at least now likely not die or be hospitalized, and we're still at least less likely to pass it on to my parents, who are in their 80s.  But while we were able to enjoy some indoor events with fully vaxed family this summer, I'm feeling like it's back to outside, and I'm wondering what that means about, say, Christmas.  Sigh.  Maaaybe the Delta wave will have passed by then???  Or there will be a Delta booster?  I sure hope they can get a specific Delta booster going fast - wasn't that supposed to be a feature of the mRNA technology, a fast pivot to boosters for new strains??

Edited August 1, 2021 by Matryoshka

[mommyoffive]

This is freaking me out

In the past week, Florida has averaged 1,525 adult hospitalizations a day, and 35 daily pediatric hospitalizations.

Florida breaks record for COVID-19 hospitalizations (yahoo.com)

 

South Florida children’s hospitals report uptick in COVID-19 cases (local10.com)

“Right now in the hospital, we have 17 patients who are COVID-positive. Six of them are in our ICU, one of them on a ventilator,” he said.

Holtz Children’s Hospital is also seeing uptick in positive cases with kids. They currently have five pediatric hospitalizations. Of those, two are in the ICU.

 

Edited August 1, 2021 by mommyoffive

[KSera]

2 hours ago, BaseballandHockey said:

I think it's clear that vaccinated people spread, but what isn't clear at all to me is how much, relative to unvaccinated people.

The new CDC data included two different statistics, one suggesting an eight fold reduction and one suggesting a threefold reduction in illness among vaccinated people. I guess, now that I say that, that’s not exactly the same as transmission. But, people can’t spread it if they’re not infected, so it should be at least that much lower transmission. And it looks like vaccinated people drop viral load more quickly and clear it, so should be infectious for a shorter time. (I keep meaning to go look at the data more closely to see what the differences between how they got those two different numbers. I have a possible idea, but I want to look at it before guessing.)

1 hour ago, SKL said:

Am I the only one who got the vax only so I could safely be around at-risk (vaxed or unvaxed) people, and now I feel like there was no point?

And I'm back to thinking that maybe I should go out and catch it on purpose so I don't have to spend another 1.5 years staying away from loved ones.  😕

Well, besides still being less likely to spread it when vaccinated, and that being reason enough, I certainly think not being hospitalized and obviously not dying are reason enough. I’m not sure why anyone want to go out and get it on purpose, given that we know that healthy young people are being hospitalized, and it looks absolutely miserable to be in their position. And then you could still catch it again and spread it even if you had gotten sick (and survived). 

eta: realizing I was not thinking about the fact that you’re vaccinated when responding to the idea of going out and catching it. I wouldn’t have much concern that you were going to become hospitalized or die from it since you are vaccinated, but I still wouldn’t want to contribute to spread on purpose that way.

Edited August 1, 2021 by KSera

[Mrs Tiggywinkle]

1 hour ago, mommyoffive said:

Oh that is so stressful.  Dh traveled for work about a month ago and said it was so busy, crowded, and horrible that we wouldn't be do that for a long time.  But now with the increased Delta numbers I would be so freaked.  

I was in Tampa and Detroit airports last night.  It was wall to wall people.  No social distancing going on and very few were wearing masks over their nose.

I woke up with a sinus infection today and while I’m sure it’s not Covid, I wish I didn’t have to consider it(I have a sinus infection within 24 hours every time I fly, so I am not very concerned, but I still wish I didn’t have to think about it). 

[Melissa Louise]

7 minutes ago, KSera said:

The new CDC data included two different statistics, one suggesting an eight fold reduction and one suggesting a threefold reduction in illness among vaccinated people. I guess, now that I say that, that’s not exactly the same as transmission. But, people can’t spread it if they’re not infected, so it should be at least that much lower transmission. And it looks like vaccinated people drop viral load more quickly and clear it, so should be infectious for a shorter time. (I keep meaning to go look at the data more closely to see what the differences between how they got those two different numbers. I have a possible idea, but I want to look at it before guessing.)

Well, besides still being less likely to spread it when vaccinated, and that being reason enough, I certainly think not being hospitalized and obviously not dying are reason enough. I’m not sure why anyone want to go out and get it on purpose, given that we know that healthy young people are being hospitalized, and it looks absolutely miserable to be in their position. And then you could still catch it again and spread it even if you had gotten sick (and survived). 

eta: realizing I was not thinking about the fact that you’re vaccinated when responding to the idea of going out and catching it. I wouldn’t have much concern that you were going to become hospitalized or die from it since you are vaccinated, but I still wouldn’t want to contribute to spread on purpose that way.

Yeah, I am getting extremely restless under lockdown, especially as I'm vaccinated - and honestly, I'm feeling like I want to break the rules - and frankly, I have ( by allowing adult dd to move back and forth between her house and ours) - part of me wants to get Covid over with while I still have strong effects of vaccination - I'm sick of dreading it. 

But the whole 'can still transmit' thing means I'm sitting tight. Don't want to be part of a transmission chain. 

 

 

[Not_a_Number]

15 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Yeah, I am getting extremely restless under lockdown, especially as I'm vaccinated - and honestly, I'm feeling like I want to break the rules - and frankly, I have ( by allowing adult dd to move back and forth between her house and ours) - part of me wants to get Covid over with while I still have strong effects of vaccination - I'm sick of dreading it. 

But the whole 'can still transmit' thing means I'm sitting tight. Don't want to be part of a transmission chain. 

I can absolutely imagine myself going out and getting it after the kids are vaccinated and after I hopefully get a booster... or at least no longer worrying about it. I obviously can't spend the rest of my life worrying about it, and getting it at a high level of vaccine-induced immunity would be nice. 

[Not_a_Number]

Of course, what I'm really hoping is that SOMETHING produces long-lasting immunity. Because it's one thing to go out and get it once, and another thing to have an endemic illness that's actually quite scary floating around, which could have serious repercussions every single time you catch it 😕 

[Katy]

I hope it's okay to post this meme here.  I figure with all the talk about Florida...

 

[Jean in Newcastle]

I still have faith in the vaccine doing what it promised- cutting down on hospitalizations and deaths. So far it’s still doing that. I never trusted in the vaccine as a magic bullet to get back to “the American way of life” or whatever it is that people seem to be wanting it to do. I always  understood that going back to normal would be a long term goal, not a short term one. 
 

A combination of vaccine and masking means that I see friends, family, go to church, work and stores in a relatively safe way even if it’s a modified way.  But I also recognize that my county has a vaccination rate over 70% and my part of the county is between 80 and 90%. So it’s not just my vaccine that’s protecting me. 

Edited August 2, 2021 by Jean in Newcastle
Autocorrect

[lewelma]

4 hours ago, BaseballandHockey said:

I think it's clear that vaccinated people spread, but what isn't clear at all to me is how much, relative to unvaccinated people.

We had the guy from Australia with Delta that went ALL around our city for a long weekend. He was in many indoor crowded venues including restaurants, bars, and a crowded museum exhibit. He came down with symptoms Friday night, and left Tuesday morning. He had had one jab (pfizer I think). They identified and isolated 2500 people and no one got it. The only person he spread it to was his wife. She tested positive once she arrived in Australia, and she was put straight into isolation so couldn't have gotten it from anyone else.   

Edited August 2, 2021 by lewelma

[BeachGal]

@Corraleno The service we used was Montway Auto Transport.

[mommyoffive]

For parents of unvaccinated kids, Delta variant raises questions - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)

Swann recently published a report that found that in a worst-case scenario, without masking in schools, an additional 70% of children could be infected with the coronavirus within three months. Her research also shows that even if masking is required in all schools, if there are no other mitigation strategies, she still expects 40% of elementary school students to be infected within three months.

[Kassia]

25 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

For parents of unvaccinated kids, Delta variant raises questions - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)

Swann recently published a report that found that in a worst-case scenario, without masking in schools, an additional 70% of children could be infected with the coronavirus within three months. Her research also shows that even if masking is required in all schools, if there are no other mitigation strategies, she still expects 40% of elementary school students to be infected within three months.

that is very scary

[Carrie12345]

I physically went into Walmart today. Didn’t exactly want to, but I found out they closed their curbside service due to lack of staff. And my car is in the shop, so I’m just scurrying around dh’s schedule.

Anyway, everyone was masked again, thank goodness. We’ve jumped from a 7 day average of 2-4/day for most of the summer up to 13 now. Our peak was something like 108 5 weeks after our last 13/day average. (Pop 170k)

My local school district doesn’t start for 4 more weeks, so that could help. Or just delay things.  🤷‍♀️ 

[MEmama]

3 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

I physically went into Walmart today. Didn’t exactly want to, but I found out they closed their curbside service due to lack of staff. And my car is in the shop, so I’m just scurrying around dh’s schedule.

Anyway, everyone was masked again, thank goodness. We’ve jumped from a 7 day average of 2-4/day for most of the summer up to 13 now. Our peak was something like 108 5 weeks after our last 13/day average. (Pop 170k)

My local school district doesn’t start for 4 more weeks, so that could help. Or just delay things.  🤷‍♀️ 

I went into Trader Joes this afternoon and noticed that masking was back up to ~70% of customers and staff. Masking had dropped off considerably throughout the summer—to the point I was feeling much less comfortable in public spaces—but it seems now that people are going back to wearing them. Yay! 
 

 

[ktgrok]

While waiting for my Covid test at the CVS (in the parking lot), I saw multiple people going in and out the building, no masks. I saw a mask on one person, the worker who did my test. 

With record breaking hospitalization. 

I hate my state. 

[Wheres Toto]

I've never been so glad that schools start so late around here.   My fall classes don't start until September 13th.  I'm really hoping that our mask mandates are back by then.  The way things are going, they should be.  If not, I may require them again based on the CDC and AAP recommendations, even though my county is not one the CDC is including in the recommendation.

[SeaConquest]

On 8/1/2021 at 5:10 PM, Jean in Newcastle said:

I still have faith in the vaccine doing what it promised- cutting down on hospitalizations and deaths. So far it’s still doing that. I never trusted in the vaccine as a magic bullet to get back to “the American way of life” or whatever it is that people seem to be wanting it to do. I always  understood that going back to normal would be a long term goal, not a short term one. 
 

A combination of vaccine and masking means that I see friends, family, go to church, work and stores in a relatively safe way even if it’s a modified way.  But I also recognize that my county has a vaccination rate over 70% and my part of the county is between 80 and 90%. So it’s not just my vaccine that’s protecting me. 

I no longer have faith in the vaccine -- at least for me. I was vaccinated in December/January. The latest data out of Israel shows that people vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine in January have only 16% protection against infection at this point. With the contagiousness of Delta, and the number of exposures I routinely have at work, I have little doubt that it is only a matter of time before I get Covid. I am beyond depressed and frankly cannot muster much empathy for the folks who have chosen not to vaccinate at this point. But, we need boosters for high-risk folks and vaxes for kids like yesterday. 

Edited August 3, 2021 by SeaConquest

[busymama7]

4 minutes ago, SeaConquest said:

I no longer have faith in the vaccine -- at least for me. I was vaccinated in December/January. The latest data out of Israel shows that people vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine in January have only 16% protection against infection at this point. With the contagiousness of Delta, and the number of exposures I routinely have at work, I have little doubt that it is only a matter of time before I get Covid. I am beyond depressed and frankly cannot muster much empathy for the folks who have chosen not to vaccinate at this point. But, we need boosters for high-risk folks and vaxes for kids like yesterday. 

But would it still be a mild case? Are there numbers for that?

[Not_a_Number]

9 minutes ago, SeaConquest said:

I no longer have faith in the vaccine -- at least for me. I was vaccinated in December/January. The latest data out of Israel shows that people vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine in January have only 16% protection against infection at this point. With the contagiousness of Delta, and the number of exposures I routinely have at work, I have little doubt that it is only a matter of time before I get Covid. I am beyond depressed and frankly cannot muster much empathy for the folks who have chosen not to vaccinate at this point. But, we need boosters for high-risk folks and vaxes for kids like yesterday. 

Ugh. How depressing. What were the numbers for hospitalization? 

[Not_a_Number]

3 hours ago, MEmama said:

I went into Trader Joes this afternoon and noticed that masking was back up to ~70% of customers and staff. Masking had dropped off considerably throughout the summer—to the point I was feeling much less comfortable in public spaces—but it seems now that people are going back to wearing them. Yay! 

I'm seeing the same thing in NYC. 

[SeaConquest]

Just now, busymama7 said:

But would it still be a mild case? Are there numbers for that?

Define "mild." Mild to a medical professional means you don't end up hospitalized. Mild to you and I likely means something else. I mean, I have had pneumonia. I have had pleurisy. I have had the flu. I have had bronchitis more times than I can count. I didn't end up in the hospital with any of those, but they still sucked pretty badly. And a mild case of Covid can still be worse than all of those *and* cause long Covid on top of it. I don't want to deal with any of that, or to pass it to any of my family members to deal with. My husband is self-employed. If he stops working, there is no sick pay to help us.

[Matryoshka]

31 minutes ago, Wheres Toto said:

I've never been so glad that schools start so late around here.   My fall classes don't start until September 13th.  I'm really hoping that our mask mandates are back by then.  The way things are going, they should be.  If not, I may require them again based on the CDC and AAP recommendations, even though my county is not one the CDC is including in the recommendation.

My county (in MA) just hit the threshold to be included in the CDC masks-for-all-inside recommendations. But if course our wishy-washy governor is leaving it up to communities. I guess it's better than what's going on In states where governors are interfering in the opposite direction,  but still... ugh.

Edited August 3, 2021 by Matryoshka

[SeaConquest]

1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

Ugh. How depressing. What were the numbers for hospitalization? 

I am not sure how meaningful those numbers are in Israel, where the vast majority of the population is vaccinated. My understanding is that most of the people who were hospitalized were vaccinated, but older/had risk factors, which is why they first started giving boosters to organ transplant recipients and other immunocompromised folks and then rolled it out to everyone over 60.

[busymama7]

5 minutes ago, SeaConquest said:

Define "mild." Mild to a medical professional means you don't end up hospitalized. Mild to you and I likely means something else. I mean, I have had pneumonia. I have had pleurisy. I have had the flu. I have had bronchitis more times than I can count. I didn't end up in the hospital with any of those, but they still sucked pretty badly. And a mild case of Covid can still be worse than all of those *and* cause long Covid on top of it. I don't want to deal with any of that, or to pass it to any of my family members to deal with. My husband is self-employed. If he stops working, there is no sick pay to help us.

I get that for sure.  I  *have* long covid after a mild case.  But I just can't help but think that if you had the vaccine your body would kick in to fight it quicker and it really could be milder than that mild.  

[SeaConquest]

1 minute ago, busymama7 said:

I get that for sure.  I  *have* long covid after a mild case.  But I just can't help but think that if you had the vaccine your body would kick in to fight it quicker and it really could be milder than that mild.  

I am very sorry that you are dealing with long Covid. My heart really goes out to you. I hope that you are right and that, if the worst happens, it will be a mild case. I think I am just feeling really hopeless about things right now. I am sure that I will snap out of it eventually. 

[Not_a_Number]

33 minutes ago, SeaConquest said:

I am not sure how meaningful those numbers are in Israel, where the vast majority of the population is vaccinated. My understanding is that most of the people who were hospitalized were vaccinated, but older/had risk factors, which is why they first started giving boosters to organ transplant recipients and other immunocompromised folks and then rolled it out to everyone over 60.

They must have efficacy estimates for hospitalization, though? I see no reason the numbers would be that off.

Edited August 3, 2021 by Not_a_Number

[Ausmumof3]

51 minutes ago, SeaConquest said:

I no longer have faith in the vaccine -- at least for me. I was vaccinated in December/January. The latest data out of Israel shows that people vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine in January have only 16% protection against infection at this point. With the contagiousness of Delta, and the number of exposures I routinely have at work, I have little doubt that it is only a matter of time before I get Covid. I am beyond depressed and frankly cannot muster much empathy for the folks who have chosen not to vaccinate at this point. But, we need boosters for high-risk folks and vaxes for kids like yesterday. 

Ugh do you know where that data is?

[SDMomof3]

5 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Ugh do you know where that data is?

 

[KSera]

58 minutes ago, SeaConquest said:

I no longer have faith in the vaccine -- at least for me. I was vaccinated in December/January. The latest data out of Israel shows that people vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine in January have only 16% protection against infection at this point. 

I haven’t seen a 16% number yet. Where did you see that one?

[SDMomof3]

3 minutes ago, KSera said:

I haven’t seen a 16% number yet. Where did you see that one?

 

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1418669725404602370?s=21

[SDMomof3]

1 hour ago, SeaConquest said:

I no longer have faith in the vaccine -- at least for me. I was vaccinated in December/January. The latest data out of Israel shows that people vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine in January have only 16% protection against infection at this point. With the contagiousness of Delta, and the number of exposures I routinely have at work, I have little doubt that it is only a matter of time before I get Covid. I am beyond depressed and frankly cannot muster much empathy for the folks who have chosen not to vaccinate at this point. But, we need boosters for high-risk folks and vaxes for kids like yesterday. 

I am hoping for boosters soon. Come on CDC. 

[KSera]

Short thread on Covid rates in kids in high vax vs low vax areas (this is kind of obvious):

 

[KSera]

28 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

This is depressing. 

 

He says that every pediatric bed in Louisiana is full. 

In that same press conference, I saw that doctor get emotional about the governor of Louisiana enacting a mask mandate for schools, calling it a “lifeline.” 

[wathe]

3 hours ago, SDMomof3 said:

 

I wish I could find the raw data upon which that last bar graph is based (the one suggesting 16% vaccine efficacy for those immunized in January).  The confidence intervals are really, really wide.  16%  efficacy simply does not match what I am seeing on the ground:  Most HCW and very vulnerable elderly (nursing home residents) were vaccinated with Pfizer here in Jan and Feb - in fact, they were the only ones vaccinated that early.  Delta comprises 70% of cases here***.  And we just aren't seeing spikes in cases in either of these populations.  We really should be seeing spikes in nursing home cases if VE (equivalent to relative risk reduction as per the paper linked for methods) is only 16%. Nursing home residents are tested regularly, as are nursing home staff^^^, so a spike in this population would be unlikely to be missed, even if all cases were asymptomatic.  

Our local and provincial numbers are  low though, and we still have public health measures in place (mandatory masking in indoor public places and some gathering limits), so maybe we just haven't been put to the test yet.

ETA - our numbers are low, but there is enough Delta floating around that we should be seeing at least some signal in the population that was vaxed early.  And we just aren't.

*** ETA again - nope, the proportion of delta went up while I wasn't looking, apparently.  It comprises 84% of cases now.

^^^ Late edit:  apparently we stopped routinely testing fully vaccinated, asymptomatic staff as of July 14.

Edited August 3, 2021 by wathe

[KSera]

3 minutes ago, wathe said:

I wish I could find the raw data upon which that last bar graph is based (the one suggesting 16% vaccine efficacy for those immunized in January).  The confidence intervals are really, really wide.  16%  efficacy simply does not match what I am seeing on the ground:  Most HCW and very vulnerable elderly (nursing home residents) were vaccinated with Pfizer here in Jan and Feb - in fact, they were the only ones vaccinated that early.  Delta comprises 70% of cases here.  And we just aren't seeing spikes in cases in either of these populations.  We really should be seeing spikes in nursing home cases if VE (equivalent to relative risk reduction as per the paper linked for methods) is only 16%. Nursing home residents are tested regularly, as are nursing home staff, so a spike in this population would be unlikely to be missed, even if all cases were asymptomatic.  

Our local and provincial numbers are  low though, and we still have public health measures in place (mandatory masking in indoor public places and some gathering limits), so maybe we just haven't been put to the test yet.

ETA - our numbers are low, but there is enough Delta floating around that we should be seeing at least some signal in the population that was vaxed early.  And we just aren't.

I keep wondering why the Israel numbers are so much different as well. It seems highly unlikely, but is there any chance they weren’t storing it properly there? I know I’m grasping at straws‘s.

[popmom]

27 minutes ago, KSera said:

I keep wondering why the Israel numbers are so much different as well. It seems highly unlikely, but is there any chance they weren’t storing it properly there? I know I’m grasping at straws‘s.

I was just thinking the same thing…wondering if there was a problem with the vaccine itself there. 
 

@wathe This is very interesting. In my state only 50% of nursing home workers are vaccinated. And 80% of nursing home residents are vaccinated. I would think by now I would be hearing about nursing home outbreaks. I mean, we’ve had more than one Walmart store have to shut down entirely (temporarily) due to so many workers catching the Delta variant. So it’s been here long enough… 

We are definitely being put to the test.

Edited August 3, 2021 by popmom

[wathe]

3 minutes ago, KSera said:

I keep wondering why the Israel numbers are so much different as well. It seems highly unlikely, but is there any chance they weren’t storing it properly there? I know I’m grasping at straws‘s.

I don't know.

There are lots of reasons why we (Ontario) might not be seeing the same efficacy drop that Isreal has:  The proportion of our population that was vaxed early is really low (we had very significant supply issues until mid-April), we aren't really re-opened yet, we still have lots of public health measures in place, masking compliance in indoor public spaces is pretty darn good, and vax rates are high (81% of 12+ have had their first dose, 70% fully vaxed).  It very well may be that we just haven't been tested yet.

Alberta is going to be our proving ground.  They're opening up quickly and dropping most public health measures.  We'll know in about a month or so, I guess.

I am reassured by the hospitalization and death data.  The confidence intervals are tighter.  

 

[wathe]

1 minute ago, popmom said:

I was just thinking the same thing…wondering if there was a problem with the vaccine itself there. 
 

@wathe This is very interesting. In my state only 50% of nursing home workers are vaccinated. And 80% of nursing home residents are vaccinated. I would think by now I would be hearing about nursing home outbreaks. I mean, we’ve had more than one Walmart store have to shut down entirely due to so many workers catching it. So it’s been here long enough…

Right.

We had a truly horrific  local nursing home outbreak here in early to mid-January with B.1.1.7 (pre-vaccination).  100% of residents got sick, more than 50% died.  More than 100 staff got sick, several were hospitalized, one died.  It was horrific.  Covid rips through nursing homes.  If VE is waning to as low as 16%, we really should be seeing some signal in this population by now, and we just aren't.  Which is wonderful!

[wathe]

Our nursing home vaccination rates are really high:

• As of July 12, virtually all residents in long-term care homes have received two doses of vaccines, as have 91 per cent of caregivers and 87 per cent of staff.

 

[popmom]

I did find this…

https://fortune.com/2021/07/21/cdc-covid-investigation-vaccinated-elders-nursing-homes-death/

So we are seeing some breakthrough in nursing homes in the US. Of those who have died, the overwhelming majority were very frail, on hospice. Otherwise, I didn’t see any reports of hospitalizations in these few outbreaks. It seems the vaccines are still working. 

 

[wathe]

We've had breakthrough cases in nursing homes too, but they don't seem to be increasing with time.  This graph,  pulled from a public health report on nursing home breakthrough cases,  shows symptomatic breakthrough cases arranged by days since vaccination, up to almost 5 months.  By June 30, delta comprised about 50% of cases here.  No signal to suggest waning efficacy. (Yet)

Edited August 3, 2021 by wathe

[Frances]

Does anyone know if all nursing homes in the US are still regularly testing staff? I know that some have very low vaccination rates for staff, as CNAs have some of the lowest vaccination rates among healthcare providers. 

[wathe]

Apparently, in Ontario, we just stopped routinely testing  asymptomatic fully immunized nursing home staff, as of July 14.  I hadn't seen that in the news, had to go looking for it.

[Jean in Newcastle]

18 minutes ago, Frances said:

Does anyone know if all nursing homes in the US are still regularly testing staff? I know that some have very low vaccination rates for staff, as CNAs have some of the lowest vaccination rates among healthcare providers. 

I believe that is at the state level.  Our state does have regular testing.  (It was originally mandated by our governor so that's why I think this is a state thing and not a federal thing.) 

And yes, I've noticed that CNAs have low vaccination rates.  But they also don't have a whole lot of healthcare education.  Many of our local area nursing homes, hospitals etc. have started to either require vaccination or weekly Covid testing PLUS education on the vaccines. 

[Not_a_Number]

6 hours ago, wathe said:

wish I could find the raw data upon which that last bar graph is based (the one suggesting 16% vaccine efficacy for those immunized in January).  The confidence intervals are really, really wide.  16%  efficacy simply does not match what I am seeing on the ground:  Most HCW and very vulnerable elderly (nursing home residents) were vaccinated with Pfizer here in Jan and Feb - in fact, they were the only ones vaccinated that early.

I think this would be FAR better data to examine, because you could disaggregate by age. I had the impression practically all of Israel's early vaccination went into the arms of the most vulnerable (I could be wrong about that -- please correct me if I am), in which case, it's very hard to know what's going on. 

[Faith-manor]

We are back from closing on the house in Alabama and moving our daughter and her family into it. We were very careful while down there, and masked even though at closing, everyone in the room said they were vaccinated. We are now prepping for another hunker down for us. Our county is only 43% vaccinated, and it is obvious that the other 57% has no intention of doing it. Vaccine is being donated to other counties, expiring and being thrown away. Disgusting! So we expect hospitalizations to get put of control here, and kids to get very sick in droves when school begins in about three weeks. I am doing a big stock up this week for ourselves as well as the grandmothers, and giving notice for any gig playing I need lined up for fall.

I may as well just retire all together from the arts. It isn't going to survive another year of shutting down and losing funding, and it most certainly will end up being gutted yet again. My community fine arts program director job has already ended because of covid, and when the fur hits the fan yet again, schools, universities, professional groups will once again shut down performance arts and go back to whatever they can cobble together online.

Covid will be absolutely rampant here, like nothing we have seen before, because locally, parents send their kids to school sick all the damn time. Most elementary schools have to shut down for a week or two every flu season to stop spread so I predict it will ramp up exponentially, and then schools will go online, and then the nutters will get angry and protest, and the conservatives in our state legislature who have been doing every possible thing they can to undermine and gut our governor and public health will go freaking bananas and demand schools reopen, cue another round of some even more hideous variant, dead kids, and another massive wave of teacher retirement and younger educators leaving the profession. Good luck Michigan. I really don't know who is going to go into the profession after this! The local school district with a faculty of only 39, had 11 leave at the end of this year, many retirements, some just leaving the profession. That's almost a third! It was similar counts in numerous districts in the county. Just a floodgate. Yet, our clueless, selfish prick legislature passed a no mask mandate, and a bunch of other incredibly dangerous laws so Michigan is totally screwed if the people themselves do not en masse reject the idiocy. I have zero confidence in that. The bulk of the local population at least appears to want to play chicken with the grim reaper to see who blinks first.