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At what point would you lock down again?


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58 minutes ago, SeaConquest said:

I no longer have faith in the vaccine -- at least for me. I was vaccinated in December/January. The latest data out of Israel shows that people vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine in January have only 16% protection against infection at this point. 

I haven’t seen a 16% number yet. Where did you see that one?

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1 hour ago, SeaConquest said:

I no longer have faith in the vaccine -- at least for me. I was vaccinated in December/January. The latest data out of Israel shows that people vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine in January have only 16% protection against infection at this point. With the contagiousness of Delta, and the number of exposures I routinely have at work, I have little doubt that it is only a matter of time before I get Covid. I am beyond depressed and frankly cannot muster much empathy for the folks who have chosen not to vaccinate at this point. But, we need boosters for high-risk folks and vaxes for kids like yesterday. 

I am hoping for boosters soon. Come on CDC. 

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28 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

This is depressing. 

 

He says that every pediatric bed in Louisiana is full. 

In that same press conference, I saw that doctor get emotional about the governor of Louisiana enacting a mask mandate for schools, calling it a “lifeline.” 

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3 hours ago, SDMomof3 said:

 

I wish I could find the raw data upon which that last bar graph is based (the one suggesting 16% vaccine efficacy for those immunized in January).  The confidence intervals are really, really wide.  16%  efficacy simply does not match what I am seeing on the ground:  Most HCW and very vulnerable elderly (nursing home residents) were vaccinated with Pfizer here in Jan and Feb - in fact, they were the only ones vaccinated that early.  Delta comprises 70% of cases here***.  And we just aren't seeing spikes in cases in either of these populations.  We really should be seeing spikes in nursing home cases if VE (equivalent to relative risk reduction as per the paper linked for methods) is only 16%. Nursing home residents are tested regularly, as are nursing home staff^^^, so a spike in this population would be unlikely to be missed, even if all cases were asymptomatic.  

Our local and provincial numbers are  low though, and we still have public health measures in place (mandatory masking in indoor public places and some gathering limits), so maybe we just haven't been put to the test yet.

ETA - our numbers are low, but there is enough Delta floating around that we should be seeing at least some signal in the population that was vaxed early.  And we just aren't.

*** ETA again - nope, the proportion of delta went up while I wasn't looking, apparently.  It comprises 84% of cases now.

^^^ Late edit:  apparently we stopped routinely testing fully vaccinated, asymptomatic staff as of July 14.

Edited by wathe
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3 minutes ago, wathe said:

I wish I could find the raw data upon which that last bar graph is based (the one suggesting 16% vaccine efficacy for those immunized in January).  The confidence intervals are really, really wide.  16%  efficacy simply does not match what I am seeing on the ground:  Most HCW and very vulnerable elderly (nursing home residents) were vaccinated with Pfizer here in Jan and Feb - in fact, they were the only ones vaccinated that early.  Delta comprises 70% of cases here.  And we just aren't seeing spikes in cases in either of these populations.  We really should be seeing spikes in nursing home cases if VE (equivalent to relative risk reduction as per the paper linked for methods) is only 16%. Nursing home residents are tested regularly, as are nursing home staff, so a spike in this population would be unlikely to be missed, even if all cases were asymptomatic.  

Our local and provincial numbers are  low though, and we still have public health measures in place (mandatory masking in indoor public places and some gathering limits), so maybe we just haven't been put to the test yet.

ETA - our numbers are low, but there is enough Delta floating around that we should be seeing at least some signal in the population that was vaxed early.  And we just aren't.

I keep wondering why the Israel numbers are so much different as well. It seems highly unlikely, but is there any chance they weren’t storing it properly there? I know I’m grasping at straws‘s.

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27 minutes ago, KSera said:

I keep wondering why the Israel numbers are so much different as well. It seems highly unlikely, but is there any chance they weren’t storing it properly there? I know I’m grasping at straws‘s.

I was just thinking the same thing…wondering if there was a problem with the vaccine itself there. 
 

@wathe This is very interesting. In my state only 50% of nursing home workers are vaccinated. And 80% of nursing home residents are vaccinated. I would think by now I would be hearing about nursing home outbreaks. I mean, we’ve had more than one Walmart store have to shut down entirely (temporarily) due to so many workers catching the Delta variant. So it’s been here long enough… 

We are definitely being put to the test.

Edited by popmom
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3 minutes ago, KSera said:

I keep wondering why the Israel numbers are so much different as well. It seems highly unlikely, but is there any chance they weren’t storing it properly there? I know I’m grasping at straws‘s.

I don't know.

There are lots of reasons why we (Ontario) might not be seeing the same efficacy drop that Isreal has:  The proportion of our population that was vaxed early is really low (we had very significant supply issues until mid-April), we aren't really re-opened yet, we still have lots of public health measures in place, masking compliance in indoor public spaces is pretty darn good, and vax rates are high (81% of 12+ have had their first dose, 70% fully vaxed).  It very well may be that we just haven't been tested yet.

Alberta is going to be our proving ground.  They're opening up quickly and dropping most public health measures.  We'll know in about a month or so, I guess.

I am reassured by the hospitalization and death data.  The confidence intervals are tighter.  

 

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1 minute ago, popmom said:

I was just thinking the same thing…wondering if there was a problem with the vaccine itself there. 
 

@wathe This is very interesting. In my state only 50% of nursing home workers are vaccinated. And 80% of nursing home residents are vaccinated. I would think by now I would be hearing about nursing home outbreaks. I mean, we’ve had more than one Walmart store have to shut down entirely due to so many workers catching it. So it’s been here long enough…

Right.

We had a truly horrific  local nursing home outbreak here in early to mid-January with B.1.1.7 (pre-vaccination).  100% of residents got sick, more than 50% died.  More than 100 staff got sick, several were hospitalized, one died.  It was horrific.  Covid rips through nursing homes.  If VE is waning to as low as 16%, we really should be seeing some signal in this population by now, and we just aren't.  Which is wonderful!

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I did find this…

https://fortune.com/2021/07/21/cdc-covid-investigation-vaccinated-elders-nursing-homes-death/

So we are seeing some breakthrough in nursing homes in the US. Of those who have died, the overwhelming majority were very frail, on hospice. Otherwise, I didn’t see any reports of hospitalizations in these few outbreaks. It seems the vaccines are still working. 

 

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We've had breakthrough cases in nursing homes too, but they don't seem to be increasing with time.  This graph,  pulled from a public health report on nursing home breakthrough cases,  shows symptomatic breakthrough cases arranged by days since vaccination, up to almost 5 months.  By June 30, delta comprised about 50% of cases here.  No signal to suggest waning efficacy. (Yet)

Screen Shot 2021-08-03 at 2.26.37 AM.png

Edited by wathe
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Does anyone know if all nursing homes in the US are still regularly testing staff? I know that some have very low vaccination rates for staff, as CNAs have some of the lowest vaccination rates among healthcare providers. 

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18 minutes ago, Frances said:

Does anyone know if all nursing homes in the US are still regularly testing staff? I know that some have very low vaccination rates for staff, as CNAs have some of the lowest vaccination rates among healthcare providers. 

I believe that is at the state level.  Our state does have regular testing.  (It was originally mandated by our governor so that's why I think this is a state thing and not a federal thing.) 

And yes, I've noticed that CNAs have low vaccination rates.  But they also don't have a whole lot of healthcare education.  Many of our local area nursing homes, hospitals etc. have started to either require vaccination or weekly Covid testing PLUS education on the vaccines. 

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6 hours ago, wathe said:

wish I could find the raw data upon which that last bar graph is based (the one suggesting 16% vaccine efficacy for those immunized in January).  The confidence intervals are really, really wide.  16%  efficacy simply does not match what I am seeing on the ground:  Most HCW and very vulnerable elderly (nursing home residents) were vaccinated with Pfizer here in Jan and Feb - in fact, they were the only ones vaccinated that early.

I think this would be FAR better data to examine, because you could disaggregate by age. I had the impression practically all of Israel's early vaccination went into the arms of the most vulnerable (I could be wrong about that -- please correct me if I am), in which case, it's very hard to know what's going on. 

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We are back from closing on the house in Alabama and moving our daughter and her family into it. We were very careful while down there, and masked even though at closing, everyone in the room said they were vaccinated. We are now prepping for another hunker down for us. Our county is only 43% vaccinated, and it is obvious that the other 57% has no intention of doing it. Vaccine is being donated to other counties, expiring and being thrown away. Disgusting! So we expect hospitalizations to get put of control here, and kids to get very sick in droves when school begins in about three weeks. I am doing a big stock up this week for ourselves as well as the grandmothers, and giving notice for any gig playing I need lined up for fall.

I may as well just retire all together from the arts. It isn't going to survive another year of shutting down and losing funding, and it most certainly will end up being gutted yet again. My community fine arts program director job has already ended because of covid, and when the fur hits the fan yet again, schools, universities, professional groups will once again shut down performance arts and go back to whatever they can cobble together online.

Covid will be absolutely rampant here, like nothing we have seen before, because locally, parents send their kids to school sick all the damn time. Most elementary schools have to shut down for a week or two every flu season to stop spread so I predict it will ramp up exponentially, and then schools will go online, and then the nutters will get angry and protest, and the conservatives in our state legislature who have been doing every possible thing they can to undermine and gut our governor and public health will go freaking bananas and demand schools reopen, cue another round of some even more hideous variant, dead kids, and another massive wave of teacher retirement and younger educators leaving the profession. Good luck Michigan. I really don't know who is going to go into the profession after this! The local school district with a faculty of only 39, had 11 leave at the end of this year, many retirements, some just leaving the profession. That's almost a third! It was similar counts in numerous districts in the county. Just a floodgate. Yet, our clueless, selfish prick legislature passed a no mask mandate, and a bunch of other incredibly dangerous laws so Michigan is totally screwed if the people themselves do not en masse reject the idiocy. I have zero confidence in that. The bulk of the local population at least appears to want to play chicken with the grim reaper to see who blinks first.

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16 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

We are back from closing on the house in Alabama and moving our daughter and her family into it. We were very careful while down there, and masked even though at closing, everyone in the room said they were vaccinated. We are now prepping for another hunker down for us. Our county is only 43% vaccinated, and it is obvious that the other 57% has no intention of doing it. Vaccine is being donated to other counties, expiring and being thrown away. Disgusting! So we expect hospitalizations to get put of control here, and kids to get very sick in droves when school begins in about three weeks. I am doing a big stock up this week for ourselves as well as the grandmothers, and giving notice for any gig playing I need lined up for fall.

I may as well just retire all together from the arts. It isn't going to survive another year of shutting down and losing funding, and it most certainly will end up being gutted yet again. My community fine arts program director job has already ended because of covid, and when the fur hits the fan yet again, schools, universities, professional groups will once again shut down performance arts and go back to whatever they can cobble together online.

Covid will be absolutely rampant here, like nothing we have seen before, because locally, parents send their kids to school sick all the damn time. Most elementary schools have to shut down for a week or two every flu season to stop spread so I predict it will ramp up exponentially, and then schools will go online, and then the nutters will get angry and protest, and the conservatives in our state legislature who have been doing every possible thing they can to undermine and gut our governor and public health will go freaking bananas and demand schools reopen, cue another round of some even more hideous variant, dead kids, and another massive wave of teacher retirement and younger educators leaving the profession. Good luck Michigan. I really don't know who is going to go into the profession after this! The local school district with a faculty of only 39, had 11 leave at the end of this year, many retirements, some just leaving the profession. That's almost a third! It was similar counts in numerous districts in the county. Just a floodgate. Yet, our clueless, selfish prick legislature passed a no mask mandate, and a bunch of other incredibly dangerous laws so Michigan is totally screwed if the people themselves do not en masse reject the idiocy. I have zero confidence in that. The bulk of the local population at least appears to want to play chicken with the grim reaper to see who blinks first.

As a fellow Michigander, I feel your pain. The summer started out so well here...

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12 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

The numbers have actually stopped going up as fast here. Might be a response to everyone masking up again!

NY also has a pretty good vaccination rate plus some natural immunity. I am hopeful we will peak lower than before. Fingers crossed. 

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DH back to school today (for planning; no students until next week). No mask mandate in his school; my old nemesis, the superintendent, just modified the masks optional policy to make it masks mandatory in areas with an incidence rate of more than 100/100,000--which isn't DH's school...yet. I'm surprised/disappointed by the places that are going masks optional in schools, particularly elementary schools. Places like Massachusetts and Vermont--not just the usual suspects. I don't get approaching covid by figuring out a minimum level of safety and then deliberately doing less than that. We found out last year that schools WITH A LOT OF SAFETY PRECAUTIONS could open fairly safely (for students. Numbers were always higher than the overall community for teachers and staff, even in places with low numbers for students) and that when there were outbreaks it was because of a lack of such precautions. So...why not, like, try to prevent outbreaks? DH is vaccinated and teaching high school (and will mask even though he's not required to), which is keeping my rage level at a low simmer. If I had a kid I was planning to send to elementary school this year, I'd be LIVID. It was a total bait and switch; parents had to decide whether to do virtual or in person learning in the spring when there WAS a mask mandate, and they're not allowed to switch now. It's pull your kids out of school altogether or send them to the schools that are pretending there's no pandemic anymore. 

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12 minutes ago, kokotg said:

We found out last year that schools WITH A LOT OF SAFETY PRECAUTIONS could open fairly safely (for students. Numbers were always higher than the overall community for teachers and staff, even in places with low numbers for students) and that when there were outbreaks it was because of a lack of such precautions.

Of course, who knows what the low student numbers even mean?? Students rarely test.

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2 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Of course, who knows what the low student numbers even mean?? Students rarely test.

Absolutely. But particularly as we stare down another academic year dealing with this, I'm very sympathetic to the idea that we need to accept some trade offs with safety so that kids can go to school. But why not make the risks as low as you reasonably can?! Particularly since outbreaks and quarantines cause a whole lot more disruption than having to wear masks indoors.

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Just now, kokotg said:

Absolutely. But particularly as we stare down another academic year dealing with this, I'm very sympathetic to the idea that we need to accept some trade offs with safety so that kids can go to school. But why not make the risks as low as you reasonably can?! Particularly since outbreaks and quarantines cause a whole lot more disruption than having to wear masks indoors.

Oh, agreed.

I mean, there’s no way in heck I’ll be sending my kids to indoor activities in the fall, but we’re in a different position than kids who aren’t homeschooled. And those kids deserve the safest possible environment.

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11 hours ago, wathe said:

I don't know.

There are lots of reasons why we (Ontario) might not be seeing the same efficacy drop that Isreal has:  The proportion of our population that was vaxed early is really low (we had very significant supply issues until mid-April), we aren't really re-opened yet, we still have lots of public health measures in place, masking compliance in indoor public spaces is pretty darn good, and vax rates are high (81% of 12+ have had their first dose, 70% fully vaxed).  It very well may be that we just haven't been tested yet.

Alberta is going to be our proving ground.  They're opening up quickly and dropping most public health measures.  We'll know in about a month or so, I guess.

I am reassured by the hospitalization and death data.  The confidence intervals are tighter.  

 

Yes, you cannot compare Israel to Canada. Or Canada to the US. Israel and the US both vaccinated much much earlier than Canada, so our efficacy is now waning. Pfizer's own data, released in a pre-print last week, showed a 6% drop in vaccine efficacy every 2 months. So, if Delta already starts off at a lower efficacy (88% for Pfizer), subtract 6% for every 2 months out from your last dose. So, that puts me at a 24% drop according to Pfizer (88% Delta efficacy - 24% drop since January = approximately 64% effective against infection, according to Pfizer's own data vs Israel's 19% at a much much larger sample size, so let's say it is somewhere between those two data points -- still pretty crappy). In many parts of the US, vaccination rates remain abysmal.

We also have let our public health measures lapse. In some parts of the US, those public health measures ARE PROHIBITED BY LAW from returning. And in many parts of the US, those public health measures will never return because there is a vocal minority that has made enforcement too difficult. This minority is basically holding our nation's healthcare system hostage because cancer, heart attacks, and traumas don't stop when the healthcare system is breaking. So, your risks of dying from something non-Covid related go up.

Healthcare workers are also quitting or retiring (I won't say in droves because I don't have anything other than anecdata), especially in these very hard-hit, low vax states where they have no unions, no mandatory ratios, no mandatory Covid disability pay, no meal/rest breaks, and the pay is crappy. They have had enough. I cannot begin to tell you the difference in nursing in a rural Texas ICU vs California ICUs. It is night and day how their nurses are treated. People just aren't in for a 4th wave that is *worse* than the other three. People just don't have it in them when they feel it was preventable. 

ETA: Recalculated Pfizer efficacy rate after I had coffee and could do basic math. 😆

Edited by SeaConquest
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On 8/3/2021 at 11:46 AM, SeaConquest said:

Yes, you cannot compare Israel to Canada. Or Canada to the US. Israel and the US both vaccinated much much earlier than Canada, so our efficacy is now waning. Pfizer's own data, released in a pre-print last week, showed a 6% drop in vaccine efficacy every 2 months. So, if Delta already starts off at a lower efficacy (88% for Pfizer), subtract 6% for every 2 months out from your last dose. So, that puts me at a 39% drop according to Pfizer (approximately 49% effective against infection, according to Pfizer's own data vs Israel's 19% at a much much larger sample size, so let's say it is somewhere between those two data points -- still pretty crappy). In many parts of the US, vaccination rates remain abysmal.

We also have let our public health measures lapse. In some parts of the US, those public health measures ARE PROHIBITED BY LAW from returning. And in many parts of the US, those public health measures will never return because there is a vocal minority that has made enforcement too difficult. This minority is basically holding our nation's healthcare system hostage because cancer, heart attacks, and traumas don't stop when the healthcare system is breaking. So, your risks of dying from something non-Covid related go up.

Healthcare workers are also quitting or retiring (I won't say in droves because I don't have anything other than anecdata), especially in these very hard-hit, low vax states where they have no unions, no mandatory ratios, no mandatory Covid disability pay, no meal/rest breaks, and the pay is crappy. They have had enough. I cannot begin to tell you the difference in nursing in a rural Texas ICU vs California ICUs. It is night and day how their nurses are treated. People just aren't in for a 4th wave that is *worse* than the other three. People just don't have it in them when they feel it was preventable. 

 

 

****Please do not quote this bit****. 

I hear you, loud and clear regarding burnout.     Our third wave in April had us within a hair's breadth of total system collapse - tent wards in parking lots, multi ICU transfers by ambulance bus without patient consent required, CCU and Endo suite converted to covid ICUs.   Nearish big children's teaching hospital converted its ICU take adults and filled it.   Our nearish to the GTA hospital took nearly 200 covid transfers.  We have similar (though perhaps attenuated) healthcare worker burnout leading to a staffing crisis.  

***deketed***

.  Staff are burnt out and cranky.  A fourth wave would destroy us.  I really feel for you in the US who are facing that reality.

 ****end of bit to please not quote****

All our nursing home patients and front line health workers were vaxed in January (and into Feb) though, including me, so we do have early vaxed cohorts who are relatively vulnerable.  I am going to choose to cling to the fact that we haven't seen any evidence of waning immunity yet, and reluctantly accept the fact that it might just be too early to know.  And be thankful that my province was "scared straight" by our April wave and is prudently reopening in a slow and cautious manner.  Maybe it's just a coping strategy and I'm failing to be objective, but I'm going to go with it.  'Cause I still have to show up to work every day and put on my caring face.

Edited by wathe
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You can't compare Israel to the US because the US quit reporting non-hospitalized cases. We quit automatically testing vaccinated people.  We dropped the ball in a huge way on having valid real world information on efficacy and waning immunity.  16% for those from January is for infection, not hospitalization.  How many nursing home patients are having "just a runny nose" or "just allergies" but are not hospitalized and not tested?

Some of the Israel source information was on the main thread (if I remember correctly, to many threads on the same topic now).

Edited by melmichigan
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So we finish our out quarantine and then schools start here. With no mask mandate, with no distancing, nothing. 

I'm thinking I need to stock up on food stuff early next week as best I can, paper towels, toilet paper, OTC meds, etc and just hunker down. 

Cause if we are at basically hospital capacity NOW, and a state of emergency NOW, BEFORE putting thousands of kids inches from each other all day, unvaccinated, unmasked....I can't imagine how much more we are going to see. I HATE THIS!!!

Give me kid vaccines! Give me boosters! I'll take a dozen, if need be, to make up for my fellow citizens doing nothing.  There are vaccines no one is using going to waste, let my 70 yr old mom with COPD have a booster!

Only good news is that kids will have brand new shiny vaccinations and be extra protected for a while, once they get vaccinated?

 

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8 minutes ago, melmichigan said:

You can't compare Israel to the US because the US quit reporting non-hospitalized cases. We quit automatically testing vaccinated people.  We dropped the ball in a huge way on having valid real world information on efficacy and waning immunity.  16% for those from January is for infection, not hospitalization.  How many nursing home patients are having "just a runny nose" or "just allergies" but are not hospitalized and not tested?

Some of the Israel source information was on the main thread (if I remember correctly, to many threads on the same topic now).

Canada does have that data, at least up to July 14, and we aren't seeing spikes in populations that were vaxed early..  Testing for symptomatic nursing home residents remains assertive. Though there are other reasons why we might not be seeing it yet (still largely have public health precautions in place and numbers are relatively low at this time).  

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10 minutes ago, wathe said:

Canada does have that data, at least up to July 14, and we aren't seeing spikes in populations that were vaxed early..  Testing for symptomatic nursing home residents remains assertive. Though there are other reasons why we might not be seeing it yet (still largely have public health precautions in place and numbers are relatively low at this time).  

Our nursing homes were the first hit here in the US (at least that they knew about initially).  They are testing here too (I googled that last night) and there are no spikes reported here either.  But we do have an over 70% vaccination rate in our county which does provide some protection overall as well. 

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DD is supposed to start school a week from tomorrow. Masks are "highly recommended but optional" at school which translates to no masks. The mother of DD's best friend says she's going to try to force her daughter to wear a mask in school. I just don't see it happening. These are 11 YO girls. 

I'm getting cold feet about school. DH is very insistent that DD needs to go back to school and DD is very excited about returning to school to see her friends. 

DH and I are fully vaxxed. DD turns 12 in November. 

What would you do in my shoes? 

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Nursing home data. There are 3235 entries in the spreadsheet.

https://data.cms.gov/sites/default/files/2021-08/test_positivity_rates_0.xlsx

"COVID-19 Viral (NAAT) Laboratory 14-Day Test Positivity Rates, by US County

Test Positivity Classification:Counties with test percent positivity <5.0% or with <20 tests in past 14 days: Green; test percent positivity ≥5.0% to ≤10.0% or with <500 tests and <2000 tests/100k and >10% positivity over 14 days: Yellow; >10.0% and not meeting the criteria for “Green” or “Yellow”: Red. Gray represents no data reported. Test positivity is rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent before classifying.

...

Percent Positive and Tests in prior 14 days:Data from July 14-July 27

County FIPS State FEMA Region Population NCHS Urban Rural Classification Tests in prior 14 days 14-day test rate Percent Positivity in prior 14 days Test Positivity Classification - 14 days
Adair County, OK 40001 OK 6 22,194 Non-core 213 960 73.2% Yellow
Bryan County, OK 40013 OK 6 47,995 Micropolitan 310 646 66.1% Yellow
Sheridan County, NE 31161 NE 7 5,246 Non-core 32 610 53.1% Yellow
Cherokee County, OK 40021 OK 6 48,657 Micropolitan 434 892 51.6% Yellow
Pushmataha County, OK 40127 OK 6 11,096 Non-core 43 388 51.2% Yellow
Morrill County, NE 31123 NE 7 4,642 Non-core 53 1,142 50.9% Yellow
Haskell County, OK 40061 OK 6 12,627 Non-core 97 768 50.5% Yellow
Evans County, GA 13109 GA 4 10,654 Non-core 44 413 50.0% Yellow
Cheyenne County, NE 31033 NE 7 8,910 Non-core 77 864 49.4% Yellow
Bourbon County, KS 20011 KS 7 14,534 Non-core 349 2,401 47.3% Red

"

 

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3 hours ago, kokotg said:

I'm surprised/disappointed by the places that are going masks optional in schools, particularly elementary schools. Places like Massachusetts and Vermont--not just the usual suspects. I don't get approaching covid by figuring out a minimum level of safety and then deliberately doing less than that. We found out last year that schools WITH A LOT OF SAFETY PRECAUTIONS could open fairly safely (for students. Numbers were always higher than the overall community for teachers and staff, even in places with low numbers for students) and that when there were outbreaks it was because of a lack of such precautions. So...why not, like, try to prevent outbreaks? 

Vermont just released their guidelines about an hour ago - masks will be required for everyone to start the school year. If/when a school gets to 80% of the students/staff vaccinated, masks can become optional for the vaccinated individuals. People that aren't yet vaccinated will still have to wear masks.

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

DD is supposed to start school a week from tomorrow. Masks are "highly recommended but optional" at school which translates to no masks. The mother of DD's best friend says she's going to try to force her daughter to wear a mask in school. I just don't see it happening. These are 11 YO girls. 

I'm getting cold feet about school. DH is very insistent that DD needs to go back to school and DD is very excited about returning to school to see her friends. 

DH and I are fully vaxxed. DD turns 12 in November. 

What would you do in my shoes? 

Ugh. I have NO idea what I'd do. Are your DD and her best friend in the same classes? Maybe they could mask together... 

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7 minutes ago, AmandaVT said:

Vermont just released their guidelines about an hour ago - masks will be required for everyone to start the school year. If/when a school gets to 80% of the students/staff vaccinated, masks can become optional for the vaccinated individuals. People that aren't yet vaccinated will still have to wear masks.

 

 

oh good! I think it was Andy Slavitt that listed Vermont as a state that wasn't allowing mask mandates the other day, but then in one of the responses someone pointed out that was an old policy and likely to change.

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31 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

DD is supposed to start school a week from tomorrow. Masks are "highly recommended but optional" at school which translates to no masks. The mother of DD's best friend says she's going to try to force her daughter to wear a mask in school. I just don't see it happening. These are 11 YO girls. 

I'm getting cold feet about school. DH is very insistent that DD needs to go back to school and DD is very excited about returning to school to see her friends. 

DH and I are fully vaxxed. DD turns 12 in November. 

What would you do in my shoes? 

 

19 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

With only 2% positivity, and her being able to be vaccinated in a few months, I'd likely start her. 

Here...no. No way. 

In your shoes I would send her.  I would ask her to mask.  If Ktgrok is right and you have a 2% positivity, I think the overall risk is pretty low (for her getting it, but more importantly for severe illness.)  I am at the point where I do think the mental health of our middle school/high school kids warrant erring on the side of them being with other kids when the risk of severe illness is low.

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1 minute ago, freesia said:

 

In your shoes I would send her.  I would ask her to mask.  If Ktgrok is right and you have a 2% positivity, I think the overall risk is pretty low (for her getting it, but more importantly for severe illness.)  I am at the point where I do think the mental health of our middle school/high school kids warrant erring on the side of them being with other kids when the risk of severe illness is low.

Also, if she is in a middle school, in an area with high vaccination, a large number of students should be vaccinated - since the 7th and 8th graders will be old enough for vaccination already. 

If she's in a K-8 school with a lot of mixing, or a k-6 school (that's how mine was, back in the day, with 7th and 8th in the JR High), that calculus is a bit different. 

Edited by ktgrok
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On 7/31/2021 at 3:06 PM, Not_a_Number said:

Looks like they like Happy Masks for kids:

https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/reviews/best-kids-face-masks/

I have 3 Happy Masks that I rotate. I also have some Powecom KN95 disposable masks that were on the government approved list (I think the link was in one of the threads here last year). Dh and Ds both have to wear masks at work and sometimes it's easier to grab a disposable than making sure you have a clean reusable mask. I was thinking about switching to the KN95 too until I read that my Happy Masks are effective.

Our grandsons wear Happy Masks. The 9yo has a big head/face and the adult medium actually fits him better than the children's mask. the 7yo wears a children's Happy Mask. 

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6 minutes ago, kokotg said:

oh good! I think it was Andy Slavitt that listed Vermont as a state that wasn't allowing mask mandates the other day, but then in one of the responses someone pointed out that was an old policy and likely to change.

Yeah, they were holding off until the first week of August to see what the modeling is going to look like going forward. So far, the state guidance has been very data driven. Our governor is also really big on "do x, y, and z and there won't be as many restrictions." So, the modeling is saying that cases will peak again in about 4-5 weeks (right when school goes back into session), so they want everyone to mask to start and then when schools get to 80% vaccinated, the vaccinated people can drop masks. I think there will be a fair number of grumpy people because the state has a very high vaccination rate already, but I'm happy about it. I was planning to mask regardless.

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2 minutes ago, Lady Florida. said:

I have 3 Happy Masks that I rotate. I also have some Powecom KN95 disposable masks that were on the government approved list (I think the link was in one of the threads here last year). Dh and Ds both have to wear masks at work and sometimes it's easier to grab a disposable than making sure you have a clean reusable mask. I was thinking about switching to the KN95 too until I read that my Happy Masks are effective.

Our grandsons wear Happy Masks. The 9yo has a big head/face and the adult medium actually fits him better than the children's mask. the 7yo wears a children's Happy Mask. 

Good to know! My kids have happy masks and disposable KF94 ones. I like disposable for really germy places, or for getting a hair cut so you don't end up with little hairs all in the mask, lol. 

I also personally think at least some people get a better fit with KF94 boat style. I know my 11 yr old does - her glasses fog up with happy mask but not the KF94 disposable. 

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4 hours ago, kokotg said:

It was a total bait and switch; parents had to decide whether to do virtual or in person learning in the spring when there WAS a mask mandate, and they're not allowed to switch now.

I find this so unfair. We had this happen to us in  a different situation where we paid for something under the understanding that particular guidelines were in place, and then they changed those right before hand and we were no longer comfortable with the situation.

16 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

I also personally think at least some people get a better fit with KF94 boat style. I know my 11 yr old does - her glasses fog up with happy mask but not the KF94 disposable. 

This is our experience. We don’t get tight enough seals over the bridge of the nose with the Happy Mask. I should insert my own wire, as that would probably fix it, but we have so many KF94s and they’re enough more comfortable that I don’t know what situation we’d use the Happy Mask in (outside in cold weather, maybe?). I do prefer the look of a cloth mask, but I can’t really make fashion the deciding factor 😉

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7 minutes ago, KSera said:

I find this so unfair. We had this happen to us in  a different situation where we paid for something under the understanding that particular guidelines were in place, and then they changed those right before hand and we were no longer comfortable with the situation.

This is our experience. We don’t get tight enough seals over the bridge of the nose with the Happy Mask. I should insert my own wire, as that would probably fix it, but we have so many KF94s and they’re enough more comfortable that I don’t know what situation we’d use the Happy Mask in (outside in cold weather, maybe?). I do prefer the look of a cloth mask, but I can’t really make fashion the deciding factor 😉

We bought some adhesive metal strips from Amazon and have been able to adjust fit that way better than inserting a wire. The adhesive aluminum strips are single use only, but we get something like 200 of them for $5-7.

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Florida leads the nation in children hospitalized with Covid-19. 😟 

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2021/08/02/florida-leads-the-nation-in-kids-hospitalized-for-covid/

The talk about a "pandemic of the unvaccinated" is aimed at those who refuse to get vaccinated and I get that. However, when we do that we forget that the unvaccinated includes all children under 12, cancer patients, people with certain autoimmune diseases, and anyone else who can't get vaccinated for legitimate reasons. I think we need to stop making that phrase sound shameful or change it to something that clarifies it's about those who choose to be unvaccinated. Saying pandemic of the unvaccinated as though it's shameful makes people forget about all those, especially children, who are included in that pandemic.

On 7/31/2021 at 3:56 PM, mommyoffive said:

We have only gotten these ones

Face Masks | Face Coverings | Bona Fide Masks™

I think this is where I found the Powecom ones I mentioned in my previous post. We're getting low so I'm going to look and see what else they have.

On 7/31/2021 at 7:11 PM, DawnM said:

DH says he thinks we should stop attending church in person for a while.   I agree, although I go back to school/work in a couple of weeks and our district has decided to open wide up and masks are optional.

OY

There have been a lot of local teachers who were close to retirement who just said the he!! with it, and took early retirement. I don't blame them. Protecting our children is important but so is protecting those who choose to teach other people's children (as well as the staff, administrators, etc.). I'm sorry you have to deal with this.

On 8/1/2021 at 4:06 PM, whitestavern said:

Disney is requiring masks again so maybe Universal is as well? 

At this point Universal is only "encouraging" masks indoors regardless of vaccination status. I'm on a Universal passholders Facebook group and as you might expect it's a pretty contentious subject.

19 hours ago, Carrie12345 said:

I physically went into Walmart today. Didn’t exactly want to, but I found out they closed their curbside service due to lack of staff.

Ugh. So far my local Walmart is still going strong with curbside pickup. I've been pleasantly surprised at how efficient that service has been though they started it before the pandemic so I guess they already had some of it in place and just had to ramp it up. 

15 hours ago, SDMomof3 said:

I am hoping for boosters soon. Come on CDC. 

From a few things I read it seems the thinking at this point is to get more people vaccinated with their first two (or one if J&J) shots and the discussion about boosters takes away from the discussion about getting vaccinated in the first place. Not saying I agree with it but I believe that's the thinking behind it.

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I had started to feel comfortable going out without my mask and eating in restaurants indoors. It's way too hot, humid, and often rainy to eat outside now anyway. I only slightly expanded my social contact. We had been seeing only dss and family, one cousin of mine, plus my niece and her family who live nearby. We started tentatively expanding social contact.

Ds plays Dungeons and Dragons and though they had been meeting online they went back to in-person late spring. They decided last week to go back to virtual meetings. My small book club (7 if everyone comes, which is rare) started meeting, at first outside at a park. We met twice inside at a restaurant once all of us got vaccinated. We were supposed to meet last night but we all agreed we shouldn't. We're on hold hoping September will be better. I've seen 3 close friends a few times since March 2020, always in a social distancing situation.

We've started wearing masks everywhere again and stopped going out to restaurants. We're still seeing the same family members and I'll be hosting a game night with those 3 friends tomorrow night (we're all vaccinated as are all our eligible live-in family members). 

We never fully opened ourselves up again and though we're not pulling back completely we're back to wearing masks, as well as limiting what we do and where we go.

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5 hours ago, kokotg said:

DH back to school today (for planning; no students until next week). No mask mandate in his school; my old nemesis, the superintendent, just modified the masks optional policy to make it masks mandatory in areas with an incidence rate of more than 100/100,000--which isn't DH's school...yet. I'm surprised/disappointed by the places that are going masks optional in schools, particularly elementary schools. Places like Massachusetts and Vermont--not just the usual suspects. I don't get approaching covid by figuring out a minimum level of safety and then deliberately doing less than that. We found out last year that schools WITH A LOT OF SAFETY PRECAUTIONS could open fairly safely (for students. Numbers were always higher than the overall community for teachers and staff, even in places with low numbers for students) and that when there were outbreaks it was because of a lack of such precautions. So...why not, like, try to prevent outbreaks? DH is vaccinated and teaching high school (and will mask even though he's not required to), which is keeping my rage level at a low simmer. If I had a kid I was planning to send to elementary school this year, I'd be LIVID. It was a total bait and switch; parents had to decide whether to do virtual or in person learning in the spring when there WAS a mask mandate, and they're not allowed to switch now. It's pull your kids out of school altogether or send them to the schools that are pretending there's no pandemic anymore. 

In the schools around here, parents can decide at any time to go virtual. My friend's dd was a senior last year. She started out "in person". After being quarantined for the 3rd time, she opted to go virtual. Mid semester.

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