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At what point would you lock down again?


Not_a_Number

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5 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I don't think we have nearly as long, though. Kid vaccines will be here soon. We'll all get boosters. And then we should all just go out and catch it and toss the eternal dice. They'll be much less loaded to the negative odds, anyway. 

There is now Delta plus. Not kidding. 

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12 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Can we hope this surge mysteriously vanishes like it did in the UK? Just say yes. You don’t even have to believe in it. 

We are rural and tied here to work (DH). I just don’t know what to do. The alternative to zoom is nothing sadly. I don’t want him to have an extra year at home by turning high school into 5 years. I think he needs to be around kids his age. Around actual humans. 

I imagine it'll go away, yes. I really do. It's not mysterious: it's because people build up immunity! We've seen this happen in quite a few states already. 

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1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

There are tons of variants. Most of them don't take over. So we'll see. 

There is the Lambda variant now which has been found in quite a few states already and is not responding to the vaccine.

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1 hour ago, Roadrunner said:

Can we hope this surge mysteriously vanishes like it did in the UK? Just say yes. You don’t even have to believe in it. 
 

Said in a small voice - I give the UK a 20 percent chance of not having a resurgence when the weather changes and we all go indoors. Not that many people will die, probably,  because of the vaccination rate. But we will all get ill.

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22 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

Even if the lambda variant were to surge in the United States, there’s good news: Two of the three federally approved coronavirus vaccines appear to work well against it. A paper posted Monday by Landau and other researchers at NYU found that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines had no problem neutralizing lambda. The variant showed a slight resistance to the two mRNA vaccines, but the shots were still highly effective, according to the study, which has not yet undergone peer review.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/20/lambda-variant-coronavirus/

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37 minutes ago, AbcdeDooDah said:

Even if the lambda variant were to surge in the United States, there’s good news: Two of the three federally approved coronavirus vaccines appear to work well against it. A paper posted Monday by Landau and other researchers at NYU found that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines had no problem neutralizing lambda. The variant showed a slight resistance to the two mRNA vaccines, but the shots were still highly effective, according to the study, which has not yet undergone peer review.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/20/lambda-variant-coronavirus/

I am happy to see this (though it is behind a paywall for me). I don’t want to catch the lambda variant either!

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48 minutes ago, KSera said:

I’m still only seeing this discussing the Carona-vac from China. 

The lambda has not yet infiltrated countries that have mRNA vaccines so we don’t really have any real life data about efficacy of mRNA vaccines against it. It has wreaked havoc in Peru and neighboring countries. I read somewhere that the Delta variant has been dominating the Lambda variant in many countries and hence we might never see it on the scale that South America did. So, I am hoping that the mRNA vaccines work against it if we ever have large outbreaks in the US as the claims from various scientists suggest.

 

 

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Can you even reach herd immunity if there are a significant number of breakthrough and recurrent infections?   I tried to Google recurrent infections but didn’t find much.  My best guess is that natural immunity follows the same trend as vaccinated immunity.

I think the CDC needs to change messaging completely.    One thing they need to do is explain that what they’re calling “severe Covid” is intubation and proning and multiple week ICU stays.  I’ve had three patients in the last week who were sick enough to call for an ambulance and they were vaccinated.  The CDC needs to explain that for many people, what they classify as “mild covid” can still lead to ER visits, dehydration, shortness of breath, and the overall body aches and major fatigue for weeks.  You won’t die, but the CDC needs to tell people they’re still likely to feel awful.  Apparently, the vaccine will keep you from dying, but it’s not going to keep you from being sick and/or transmitting the disease to others.  It will reduce your chances, but it’s more a sure thing.  The CDC needs to explain that.

Then the culture needs to decide what to do.  I don’t think long term masking or social distancing is either a good idea or feasible. Some people may choose to mask, and putting money and research into comfortable masks that fit well and reduce transmission would be great. I personally cannot wear a fit tested N95 for much more than 20 minutes.  Research into lighter weight, comfortable but protective options would be amazing.  Focus should move to treatments.  At this point, everyone is going to get Covid unless you’re willing to stay locked in your house forever.  Pouring money and brains into early treatments, anti-virals, and best practices would go a long way. The end goal of the war has shifted and they need to shift messaging and game plans. 

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10 hours ago, Frances said:

While I agree there might be some small amount of validity to the concern, I do find it hard to understand some people’s supposed grave concern about something that might maybe theoretically possibly happen in the future (eg US imposing China like restrictions and monitoring) all the while embracing leaders who continue to lie about a stolen election, a direct threat to our democracy and freedoms that actually happened and continues to this day.

 

I hear you.

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28 minutes ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

Can you even reach herd immunity if there are a significant number of breakthrough and recurrent infections?   I tried to Google recurrent infections but didn’t find much.  My best guess is that natural immunity follows the same trend as vaccinated immunity.

I think the CDC needs to change messaging completely.    One thing they need to do is explain that what they’re calling “severe Covid” is intubation and proning and multiple week ICU stays.  I’ve had three patients in the last week who were sick enough to call for an ambulance and they were vaccinated.  The CDC needs to explain that for many people, what they classify as “mild covid” can still lead to ER visits, dehydration, shortness of breath, and the overall body aches and major fatigue for weeks.  You won’t die, but the CDC needs to tell people they’re still likely to feel awful.  Apparently, the vaccine will keep you from dying, but it’s not going to keep you from being sick and/or transmitting the disease to others.  It will reduce your chances, but it’s more a sure thing.  The CDC needs to explain that.

Then the culture needs to decide what to do.  I don’t think long term masking or social distancing is either a good idea or feasible. Some people may choose to mask, and putting money and research into comfortable masks that fit well and reduce transmission would be great. I personally cannot wear a fit tested N95 for much more than 20 minutes.  Research into lighter weight, comfortable but protective options would be amazing.  Focus should move to treatments.  At this point, everyone is going to get Covid unless you’re willing to stay locked in your house forever.  Pouring money and brains into early treatments, anti-virals, and best practices would go a long way. The end goal of the war has shifted and they need to shift messaging and game plans. 

I think this is making the unproven assumption that we can’t have effective vaccines again. It’s possible that boosters would again keep cases low.

I’m personally not interested in looking too far into the future. I’m pretty content with social distancing when there’s a surge and being less careful otherwise for now. I have no idea what happens next — I just gotta roll with it.

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26 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I think this is making the unproven assumption that we can’t have effective vaccines again. It’s possible that boosters would again keep cases low.

I’m personally not interested in looking too far into the future. I’m pretty content with social distancing when there’s a surge and being less careful otherwise for now. I have no idea what happens next — I just gotta roll with it.

I think we’ll develop a booster.  Absolutely.  I don’t think as many people will get it and that people’s interest in and desire for vaccines won’t be as high though.  
It’s endemic, like the flu.  There will be different strains every year; and I expect that we’ll have different, yearly shots trying to target those strains.  I don’t think long term social distancing is wise for many people; my own son with autism regressed so much during virtual school that it’s just not a good option for us or many others.  

I just think that the government has been looking at this as a short term problem that we’re going to eradicate; and we need to shift now into learning how to live with Covid.  

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3 minutes ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

I think we’ll develop a booster.  Absolutely.  I don’t think as many people will get it and that people’s interest in and desire for vaccines won’t be as high though.  
It’s endemic, like the flu.  There will be different strains every year; and I expect that we’ll have different, yearly shots trying to target those strains.  I don’t think long term social distancing is wise for many people; my own son with autism regressed so much during virtual school that it’s just not a good option for us or many others.  

I just think that the government has been looking at this as a short term problem that we’re going to eradicate; and we need to shift now into learning how to live with Covid.  

To a certain extent, I agree. But how do you "learn to live with Covid" when many are not willing to do any kind of mitigation that stops it? 

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6 minutes ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

I think we’ll develop a booster.  Absolutely.  I don’t think as many people will get it and that people’s interest in and desire for vaccines won’t be as high though.  
It’s endemic, like the flu.  There will be different strains every year; and I expect that we’ll have different, yearly shots trying to target those strains.  I don’t think long term social distancing is wise for many people; my own son with autism regressed so much during virtual school that it’s just not a good option for us or many others.  

I just think that the government has been looking at this as a short term problem that we’re going to eradicate; and we need to shift now into learning how to live with Covid.  

I mean, it depends? I don’t think people will be willing to live with overwhelmed hospitals every winter! If the vaccine uptake and natural immunity suffice to make it much less of a problem, then sure. I don’t know that I ever expected it to be eradicated, anyway.

But I do think it’s possible we’ve almost solved the short term problem and we’ll soon be onto the next phase. 

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8 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

To a certain extent, I agree. But how do you "learn to live with Covid" when many are not willing to do any kind of mitigation that stops it? 

They'll mitigate it by getting it and either dying or (much more likely) winding up with some natural immunity against it. And possibly a long-term condition they don't like! But that's their method and ultimately, it's up to them. 

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8 hours ago, Roadrunner said:

Can we hope this surge mysteriously vanishes like it did in the UK? Just say yes. You don’t even have to believe in it. 

We are rural and tied here to work (DH). I just don’t know what to do. The alternative to zoom is nothing sadly. I don’t want him to have an extra year at home by turning high school into 5 years. I think he needs to be around kids his age. Around actual humans. 
 

Is there any chance you could get him into tennis or something?  This is probably the activity that feels safest to me because it’s so socially distanced anyway.  There is a shared ball but otherwise it seems really low risk.

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Just now, Roadrunner said:

If vaccination isn’t enough to stop the spread of Covid as CDC is now saying, then what’s next? We really have no hope left. At least last year we had vaccines to look forward. Now what? 😓

There was always a decent chance this would wind up needing boosters. 

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1 minute ago, Roadrunner said:

If vaccination isn’t enough to stop the spread of Covid as CDC is now saying, then what’s next? We really have no hope left. At least last year we had vaccines to look forward. Now what? 😓

Yes, I am beginning to feel really, really hopeless.

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Oooh, I wish people wouldn't feel hopeless!! Look at the UK numbers -- lots of infections, but very few deaths and hospitalizations! And for all we know, a Delta infection after vaccination offers long-term immunity. 

We should try to get everyone who wants to get vaccinated, develop boosters, and let the chips fall where they may. This isn't going to last that much longer, I don't think. It'll become endemic and less scary, that's all. 

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5 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

If vaccination isn’t enough to stop the spread of Covid as CDC is now saying, then what’s next? We really have no hope left. At least last year we had vaccines to look forward. Now what? 😓

For myself once everyone has the chance to get vaccinated including kids I say we do things basically the normal way, provided they keep working against severe COVID.  We might need six monthly boosters but at this point I’d probably deal with that.  There’s also lots of other vaccines in the pipeline and it’s fully possible that one of them may be more protective.  There’s the possibility that the adenovirus vaccines may be longer lasting than the mRNA vaccines.  And there are also new treatments in the pipeline some of which may prove to be very much more effective than what we have now. The one other issue is the long Covid thing with breakthrough cases.  There was a preprint study yesterday from Israel on healthcare workers with breakthrough cases and there was some long Covid but by the time you look at the percentage of breakthrough cases and the percentage that actually developed long Covid it didn’t seem too worrying.

Edited by Ausmumof3
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2 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

If vaccination isn’t enough to stop the spread of Covid as CDC is now saying, then what’s next? We really have no hope left. At least last year we had vaccines to look forward. Now what? 😓

Reducing the spread eight-fold is significant, though. That will help prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed, and protect a whole lot of people.

if certain regions just insist on acquiring their immunity the old-fashioned way, through infection, on their heads be it, but they'll still end up with some degree of immunity. 

It'll take a while, but we will get through the pandemic stage.

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8 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

For myself once everyone has the chance to get vaccinated including kids I say we do things basically the normal way, provided they keep working against severe COVID.

Yep, this. And we might keep masking in crowded indoor places during COVID and flu season -- I've really liked not having colds this year! The occasional cold to build up immunity, fine. But constantly going through all the seasonal bugs? No thanks. 

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Honestly, many many people do not take care of their health and do not care if they get sick.  Truly, they don’t.  People with severe COPD continue to smoke and not take their inhalers.  People with heart failure go off their diuretics because they don’t like to pee all the time.  People with diabetes don’t check their sugar, don’t take their medications, and eat whatever they want.  Obesity is a huge problem.  So it doesn’t surprise me that people are just not very concerned whether or not they catch Covid.

I will try not to get on my public health rant, but Covid has just exposed issues and cracks that were already there.  Hospitals in many areas are overwhelmed every day, especially emergency rooms.  That happened pre-Covid on a regular basis.  People don’t have insurance, can’t get into primary care doctors, don’t like using urgent care because many urgent cares require a credit card or payment up front. So they go to the ER.  The other night at my hospital it was a 7 hour wait to be seen.  There was almost no Covid, it was other things.  This hospital just added 20 ER beds but they can’t keep up.  ER’s are increasingly holding psychiatric patients for days or even weeks because they can’t find a bed in a psych hospital anywhere. That takes away nurses and beds from other patients. Covid may have shown a light on all of this, but the hospital overwhelm was already there.

There’s a lot that can be done to live in a world where viruses like Covid and Influenza circulate. It wouldn’t take much for a flu variant to cause a pandemic, either.  Invest in hospital infrastructure and medical personnel to reduce the overwhelm of Covid surges or even a bad flu season.  Better public health to combat the chronic diseases like diabetes and COPD that predispose people to severe illness.  Doctors that make house calls. Better insurance reimbursement across the board.   Redesign movie theaters and restaurants going forward to have more space between people.  Invest in research to make better masks that people don’t find so cumbersome.  Move away from open floor plan offices and even houses so people can stay to themselves.  Encourage a cultural mentality of staying home when feeling ill, even if that means more paid sick leave for all workers and a cultural shift away from the ethos of “working through anything.”   Erase food deserts, subsidize healthy choices to make healthy food as cheap or cheaper than processed.  This really isn’t about just Covid, though it’s the big thing right now.  There is always going to be another virus or variant lurking around the corner; but maybe people and politicians can start to strategize ways to mitigate it.

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29 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

This isn't going to last that much longer, I don't think. It'll become endemic and less scary, that's all. 

Many of us thought that a year ago. Being back at the same infection rates and at the exact same debates about masking is downright depressing. 

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9 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

I don't think we have nearly as long, though. Kid vaccines will be here soon. We'll all get boosters. And then we should all just go out and catch it and toss the eternal dice. They'll be much less loaded to the negative odds, anyway. 

That is what I have been hoping for.  I need 3 of my kids to get the 5-11 vaccine, and I hope they get covid after that.  I am not hoping they get covid, but I am hoping we can avoid it until they get their vaccine as to hopefully keep severe problems away.  

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I mean, I planned my co-op to be all online and outdoors in the fall, lol. There’s a reason for that… I figured the fall would suck. It’s just that the sucking came a bit earlier than I wish it did.

I’m feeling cheery today for some reason, lol. We’ve made the hard decisions: told our babysitters not to come and told the kids we aren’t doing camp. But unlike in March 2020, I can see a light at the end of this tunnel. I’ll get the kids vaccinated and get a booster and we’ll rejoin the world of the living…

Edited by Not_a_Number
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8 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I mean, I planned my co-op to be all online and outdoors in the fall, lol. There’s a reason for that… I figured the fall would suck. It’s just that the sucking came a bit earlier than I wish it did.

I’m feeling cheery today for some reason, lol. We’ve made the hard decisions: told our babysitters not to come and told the kids we aren’t doing camp. But unlike in March 2020, I can see a light at the end of this tunnel. I’ll get the kids vaccinated and get a booster and we’ll rejoin the world of the living…

We are all vaccinated, but there is no world to rejoin. Everything here is online. And longer things stay online, greater the odds of those changes being permanent. There is no incentive for teachers to be back in the classroom. I am afraid there is no longer a world to rejoin. 

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3 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

We are all vaccinated, but there is no world to rejoin. Everything here is online. And longer things stay online, greater the odds of those changes being permanent. There is no incentive for teachers to be back in the classroom. I am afraid there is no longer a world to rejoin. 

No one is doing ANYTHING in person? Even in SF, our friends had their kids go back to school. 

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4 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

We are all vaccinated, but there is no world to rejoin. Everything here is online. And longer things stay online, greater the odds of those changes being permanent. There is no incentive for teachers to be back in the classroom. I am afraid there is no longer a world to rejoin. 

((Roadrunner))  It is so so hard.  It does feel helpless at times.  I think you are catastrophizing, though.  We are social beings.  I cannot see online life becoming permanent, I really can't. It's also not like that everywhere.  My state is taking covid seriously, but hardly anything is online right now.  I agree with @Not_a_Number that things will begin to turn around.  Try not to dwell on the what-ifs.  I know you have at least one dc with mental health issues right now and I do know how hard that is.  Try to do what you can in the present to alleviate your own stress and I know for me worrying about no world to rejoin would absolutely spike my anxiety.  There is always the option of moving somewhere, eventually.

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8 hours ago, mathnerd said:

There is the Lambda variant now which has been found in quite a few states already and is not responding to the vaccine.

The mRNA vaccines seem to work well on it, actually. 

2 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

I think this is making the unproven assumption that we can’t have effective vaccines again. It’s possible that boosters would again keep cases low.

 

Right, or even just a third dose. We give MANY vaccines in 3 or more doses, why would Covid be different? Pertussis is 3-5 doses, Polio is 3 doses, Hep B is 3 doses. I'm awfully glad that with all those things people didn't do 2 and then say "screw it" and give up, you know?

1 hour ago, Roadrunner said:

If vaccination isn’t enough to stop the spread of Covid as CDC is now saying, then what’s next? We really have no hope left. At least last year we had vaccines to look forward. Now what? 😓

If it stops people from getting really sick, that's the important thing. And it does reduce infection/transmission. Not as much as with other variants, but less spread is better than more spread. And a 3rd dose may bring it back up even higher. 

Also, testing is becoming easier! With at home tests at $10 each, we have another way to control spread. For instance, before I see my high risk mom, I can and will test if we've been somewhere with higher exposure risk. My son, who really felt fine other than his sense of smell, was able o test and immediately isolate. That is going to help. 

Personally, once my kids are vaccinated I'll feel content to at least do outdoor activities, have vaccinated friends over, see family. Without a booster I don't see me doing say, a big stadium unmasked unless rates go down here (our numbers suck). But life will be much better. 

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2 minutes ago, freesia said:

We are social beings.  I cannot see online life becoming permanent,

This.

This is a very hard time, but it isn't permanent. Things will shift back. Humans are wired to gather in groups.

(I mean, some are wired that way more than others... One of mine is hoping online school is still an option for 2022-2023... )

But just look at how hard staying apart is in general. People don't like it. Most of us aren't wired that way. We're social, and we will *act* social, just as soon as possible. Some things may shift, like allowing more people to work from home, but people will gather, because that's part of what humans are.

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3 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Well PS is off limits for my son. Nobody would take him in as a junior. CC is online with an exception of few things that will move most likely online. Teachers love it. It’s all automated - watch a video, click on this, take exam. Most will gladly stay that way and collect paycheck. I have first hand knowledge of this. Longer this goes on, more permanent this becomes. Nothing for high schoolers here since we are rural and already had just one homeschool option locally. They won’t run anything in person. Sports (tennis being an exception) is all in public schools. 
Honestly if I knew pandemic was going to hit, I would have never homeschooled high school. We were really counting for one class per semester in person for human contact. I really underestimated the impact of isolation on my boy. 

After the first round here in Aus it took a little while but eventually when people started going out it got really busy because everyone was so company starved.  Maybe it will be like that for you guys as well.

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