wuhan - coronavirus

[mommyoffive]

11 hours ago, Plum said:

Yeah. I wouldn’t want to go there even after the virus burns out, but they have built bridges in less time. I watched a 60 Min Aus episode on YouTube a while back about China’s ghost cities. They use the same cookie cutter architectural blueprint for many of their buildings. Very little details. As straightforward and utilitarian as possible. 
 

copied from a Wuhan update FB group  it seems to be a little behind in the numbers. 

Here's the latest numbers:

As of the end of the day Saturday, 1,975 cases were confirmed in mainland China.
56 people are dead.
38 people outside mainland China have tested positive in the following places:

Australia (4 cases), France (3 cases), Hong Kong (5 cases), Japan (3 cases), Macao (2 cases), Malaysia (3 cases), Nepal (1 case), Singapore (3 cases), South Korea (2 cases), Taiwan (3 cases), Thailand (5 cases), United States (2 cases) and Vietnam (2 cases

 

I am wondering if the spread isn't going to be as big in other countries?  I am surprised at this point that it hasn't spread  more in countries nearby at this point.  

Edited January 26, 2020 by mommyoffive

[Pen]

6 hours ago, Carrie12345 said:

I’m having trouble processing one particular thing. Maybe someone who understands healthcare logistics better can help me out?

FTR, I’m trying to disregard extremes on both ends. I see all the “this is the big one”s and all of the “‘this is a hoax”es, but I’m mostly navigating straight to reported facts from reliable sources.

So... the current reports are that there are about 2,000 cases. China is saying they’re sending an additional 1230 medical experts, whatever that definition is. My layperson brain sees that and thinks... um, that’s... a lot. I mean, ratio-wise.  And thinking about that makes my brain want to go down all the extra scary paths.
(It doesn’t help that we just watched a video on how the world economy would have been impacted if Ebola had spread farther in Africa.)

I’m not opposed to thinking down the scary paths, I just don’t like to do it without valid reasons.  Is 1230 a logical response here?

 

According to what my Ds related to me, The initial symptoms are those of a cold.  

People can infect others or be very sick with pneumonia or dead in 48 hours.  Stopping an epidemic requires diagnosing and contact tracking—

Figuring out who actually has “just a cold” versus the potentially deadly virus would take a lot of medical personnel.  Tracking the contacts ofs a person with the potentially deadly virus would take yet more medical personnel.

  1230 sounds very needed, maybe low. 

[mlktwins]

3 potential in my state (Virginia)  now.  1 of them in No. VA, which is where I am 😔.

[Katy]

1200 people isn't many.  Divide it by 3 shifts per day, and assume no one has a day off.  Say 5% are doctors or the equivalent.  Some of the people with pneumonia will need ICU level care, so one staff member for 3 patients. Others will need normal hospital care.  In the USA that typically looks like one nurse to 5-8 patients (OFTEN LESS FOR ISOLATION), and 1-2 techs per 6 nurses...

So by American standards even if the staff goes in wearing hazmat suits and doesn't have to change or wash gear in between patients (which would NOT be optimal)..

60 doctors, 1140 nurses and techs.

That means 20 doctors per shift.  Divided by two hospitals.  Ten doctors per shift at each new hospital.  Each doctor will cover 100 patients in 8 hours. 12.5 per hour or 3-4 minutes per patient.

1140 nursing staff (not broken down into students/techs/RNs).  380 per shift.  Divided by two hospitals.  190.  Divided by 1000 patients. Which means they'll be averaging 20 patients per nursing staff member.  Which means in every 8 hour shift patients will get an average of 20 minutes of attention.

Those are catastrophically bad numbers by American standards.  Huge mistakes will be made.

And if it's highly contagious there will be exponentially more sick people than 2000 in 10 days.

The good news is that it isn't as deadly as SARS or MERS.

[Katy]

I will say I was thinking about driving into the city today to visit the aquarium we're members of.  And thought about this virus and decided not to.  It's unlikely we'd be exposed, but still...  I just couldn't stomach the thought of the risk or spending more hours in the children's hospital if the kids got it.   Not to mention how many times I've had pneumonia, I probably wouldn't survive it.  I forsee long hours at home for the rest of the flu season.

[Melissa in Australia]

Glad uni doesn’t start for another month. Dd when uni starts lives in accomodation that is specifically for Chinese international students here to learn English . She lives there because my brother’s mil owns and runs it. Plus well over half of her university are Asian  international students that will be returning to Australia very shortly

i am concerned because they will be arriving straight from China in the next few weeks, 

Edited January 26, 2020 by Melissa in Australia

[Melissa in Australia]

1 hour ago, StellaM said:

 

I think it depends on how proactive each locations public health is.

We have some cases in my state, people infected in China who travelled here. 

An info program with advice for people in their positition was in airports immediately, which helped affected persons self-identify to health authorities.

Affected people are in isolation, and we have good isolation protocols, and lots of experience in tracing other people exposed, and monitoring/isolating those people.

It's likely (but not guaranteed) that any spread will be slow.

Our hospitals are generally good, they are not currently overwhelmed because this is not our flu season etc

That is a positive look at it. Personally I thought they could go through the motions of at least taking temperatures instead of just handing out leaflets.

[Farrar]

I wonder if the state of the US healthcare system means there will be fewer people self-identifying. Stella mentioned potential cases in Aus self-reporting and I'm like... I can easily imagine if you've been to China recently, don't have insurance or don't have great insurance, thinking, this is probably the flu and not going in. I mean, the cost of robot treatment? That's got to be astronomical.

[Renai]

5 hours ago, Farrar said:

 

You're in the US, right? It makes zero sense to me that a Lunar New Year's celebration need to be canceled here in the states at this point. I mean, yes, people travel back and forth, but there's no reason to worry here, at least not yet - though I assume hospitals and especially infectious disease docs are taking precautions.

I thought the same thing when ours was canceled. But, then again, we don't know how many went to visit family and then came back for school for their kids. Some may very well have been in the zone during the time it was spreading without knowing.

 

3 hours ago, Pen said:

 

According to what my Ds related to me, The initial symptoms are those of a cold.  

People can infect others or be very sick with pneumonia or dead in 48 hours.  Stopping an epidemic requires diagnosing and contact tracking—

Figuring out who actually has “just a cold” versus the potentially deadly virus would take a lot of medical personnel.  Tracking the contacts ofs a person with the potentially deadly virus would take yet more medical personnel.

  1230 sounds very needed, maybe low. 

On Weibo, it's been posted that they are asking people who were on train X, Y, Z from/to A/D, etc., to report any symptoms because X number of cases have been found and they were on those trains. So they are trying to track people down. But that's a heck of a lot of people. The list I saw had 19 trains.

A person in our Chinese school WeChat posted a bulletin put out by the Shenzhen Municipal Health Committee shutting down many dental clinics. Because of the special equipment letting off mists, aerosols, etc., the risk of a patient getting treatment and spreading the virus is high. Essential/emergency cases only are to be seen. It was suggested (by the WeChat member) if anyone has just returned from China to not go to the dentist until after 14 days quarantine.

[Katy]

Washington Post says 5 cases confirmed in US: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-latest-updates/2020/01/26/4603266c-3fa8-11ea-afe2-090eb37b60b1_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_chinavirus-223am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Farrar said:

I wonder if the state of the US healthcare system means there will be fewer people self-identifying. Stella mentioned potential cases in Aus self-reporting and I'm like... I can easily imagine if you've been to China recently, don't have insurance or don't have great insurance, thinking, this is probably the flu and not going in. I mean, the cost of robot treatment? That's got to be astronomical.

It has been said on the news here that even if you’re not and Australian citizen or not covered by Medicare if you’re concerned about coronavirus treatment will be free.  They are actively trying to get the message out over social media to groups they think are most at risk.  

[Ausmumof3]

Last figures were 80 deaths, 3000 infections.  What concerned me was the number of actual cures and discharged was only around 50 Is that just because they are the very early patients who have had time to recover.  But does that mean the other 2,870 odd are still hospitalised?  Because that’s a lot of people!

[Ausmumof3]

also they are now building a 3rd hospital.

[May]

DH and I go to the gym at GMU, where there is reported to be a student, who recently came back from China,that may be infected. I’m hoping they keep us updated.🙏🏻

[mumto2]

Dh just had a let’s call it concerning experience at our Florida Home Depot where he was looking at face masks.......more for a plaster repair project than because I had suggested we might want a few just in case we need them.  The poster on some thread with the sick neighbor made me think my own small supply might be good.  He had a box in his hands and was reading the details when a Chinese woman cleared the shelf of all face masks.  All the face masks....she then called someone and appeared to be counting how many she had.  Yes, he did buy his box of 20 after that.

[Carrie12345]

 

3 hours ago, StellaM said:

 

I do think it's worth limiting discretionary exposure to big crowds at flu time anyway, especially if anyone in the family is susceptible to serious respiratory disease.

We’re trying to limit as much as reasonably possible (3 college courses across 2 kids were just paid for!) because I sure as heck don’t want anyone here having any type of respiratory virus while the whole world is looking at/for sick people!

[Arcadia]

17 minutes ago, mumto2 said:

  He had a box in his hands and was reading the details when a Chinese woman cleared the shelf of all face masks.  All the face masks....she then called someone and appeared to be counting how many she had.  

 

Some are buying to mail back to their relatives in China. In my country of origin, Chinese expats are doing that. 

[Acadie]

Dh travels a lot for work (six trips coming up, one right after the other). He also has asthma, which is normally well-managed but occasionally lands him in the ER after a particularly bad cold or flu, so I decided to pick up face masks in case he wants to use them while flying.

Amazon was sold out and I had to go to three stores before I could find any!

Amy

Edited January 27, 2020 by Acadie

[Arcadia]

Sorry if someone has already posted because I haven’t read the entire thread 

From SCMP https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047701/coronavirus-contagious-even-incubation-stage-chinas-health

“China’s National Health Commission (NHC) said on Sunday that the new coronavirus is contagious even in its incubation period, which lasts up to 14 days, and that the virus’ ability to spread is getting stronger.

Ma Xiaowei, the minister in charge of the NHC, told a press briefing that the authorities’ understanding of the virus was “limited” and they were also unclear on the risks posed by possible mutations.

“The outbreak is expected to continue for some time,” he said.

Ma said that unlike Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) the new coronavirus was infectious during its incubation period.

He also reiterated earlier reports that people infected with the virus might not immediately show any symptoms.

This had added to the difficulties faced by the authorities to control its spread and prevent further infections, he said.

As well as locking down cities, the government was sending more doctors and nurses, and more medical supplies to Wuhan, Ma said.

More than 1,350 medics had already arrived in the city to help battle the epidemic and a further 1,000 would follow, he said.

As well as seeking to contain the outbreak in towns and cities, the government was also monitoring the situation in rural areas, he said.

Ma said that Beijing was aware there was a shortage of medical supplies and that the relevant authorities were seeking to source them in “every possible way”.

Wang Jiangping, vice-minister for industry and information technology, said at the press conference that China was pursuing various channels, both at home and overseas, to source the required supplies.”

[Laura Corin]

8 hours ago, StellaM said:

I am slightly concerned - I return to work this week and I'm around lots of kids from SE Asian backgrounds who are likely to have been in China or neighbouring countries over summer.  I'm still not concerned enough to worry about anything other than basic hygeine. 

Yes, basic hygiene. I administer a course that has fifty Mainland Chinese students on it. The new semester starts today. I'll be behaving as normal apart from 'double Happy Birthday' hand washing after the toilet and before eating.

[geodob]

Arcadia, that also really concerned me!  That it can take from 1 to 14 days for symptoms to appear.
But that people are also infectious, before the symptoms appear.

[Carrie12345]

6 hours ago, Plum said:

 

Wow. My oldest has a cold and dh just started a new job and can't get sick right now so I dug a pack of N95 masks I had in my sanding supplies. The straps are really tight on him, so I was thinking about getting some of those cloth carbon masks I've seen a few teens wear around here and Amazon is basically sold out of everything. I went over to the Home Depot website and they have limited stock in all stores.  I guess I know what's going in my emergency kit once this blows over. 

I managed to get basic little loop masks yesterday without an issue, and they still show s in stock, but I live relatively ruralish with a very low Asian population. And with lots of people who think everything (not just this) is a hoax.  I figure dd can keep a couple in a ziplock in her backpack since she had two classmates wearing masks before this became a story. She’ll have them if she thinks she needs them to reduce any sort of ick. (She’s a registered EMT with additional training in avoiding pathogens in emergencies, so I trust her judgment!)

For my anxiety (me, my, mine), the best “treatment” is preparedness. Since emergency preparedness is already a big thing in our house, the least this will be is a good exercise/learning experience, lol!                  

[geodob]

Quote

 

In Australia, Chinese Students make up 10% of Aust University Students.
The new school year starts in late February, when close to 500,000 Students will be coming back from China.
How Universites will cope with this, will be a real challenge?
 

[chiguirre]

The mayor of Wuhan gave an interview yesterday. He announced that 5 million people (of 11 million) have left Wuhan. I would have thought that an authoritarian country would do a better job of quarantining a city. If anything, more people have probably fled Wuhan than if they had just kept the city open. I guess it's a valuable lesson learned, but it isn't going to help contain this virus. Now there are millions of people spreading out all over basically in hiding. 

[Pen]

 

in re university students from China in Australia: 

I’d think a problem might be that young people might have the illness without severe symptoms themselves, yet be able to pass it to people who are more susceptible.  Or have more of an outbreak when away from home in dormitory and with academic pressures situation of university. 

We have a lot of students here from China, but we aren’t at a major break.  So mostly people will have been present since after our winter break (when I guess the virus was already a problem though not in news, but probably fewer cases). 

 

 

Edited January 27, 2020 by Pen

[Katy]

The ways people are getting around censorship seem both brave and hilarious:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/technology/china-coronavirus-censorship-social-media.html

[mlktwins]

So...I finally found out my goddaughter is back from China.  She was not in the ground zero area, but she came home not feeling well a week ago.  Her mom took her to the doctor right away, but she said they were not prepared to test for this virus.  She called around to other doctors, hospitals, and health departments and was told her symptoms were not enough to send blood to the CDC.  So...she stayed home for a week so her mom could monitor her and she missed her first week of college classes.  She is feeling better now and back at school this week.  The school is watching and supporting the group that went to China.  We now have a suspected case at GMU, which is not far from me.  Hopefully that turns out negative.  The other 2 cases in VA are negative for the virus.

 

[Arcadia]

From JHU Facebook page

“The Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering has built an online dashboard for tracking the worldwide spread of the #coronavirus outbreak. The dashboard is regularly updated with data from the World Health Organization (WHO), CDC, and other sources to illustrate how the virus is spreading in China and beyond.

https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/01/23/coronavirus-outbreak-mapping-tool-649-em1-art1-dtd-health/  ”

dashboard link https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[mommyoffive]

3 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

From JHU Facebook page

“The Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering has built an online dashboard for tracking the worldwide spread of the #coronavirus outbreak. The dashboard is regularly updated with data from the World Health Organization (WHO), CDC, and other sources to illustrate how the virus is spreading in China and beyond.

https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/01/23/coronavirus-outbreak-mapping-tool-649-em1-art1-dtd-health/  ”

dashboard link https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

That is so helpful!!  Thank you. 

[Ausmumof3]

I feel like there’s so many mixed messages with this.  On the one hand there are reports that it can be contagious before symptoms show.  On the other hand they are only contact tracing here for the plane with someone who was symptomatic.  The other three patients who didn’t develop symptoms they aren’t doing any contact tracing or advice for other passengers on the plane.  This says to me that they don’t actually believe it’s contagious prior to symptoms.  Otherwise you effectively risk having one or two planes full of people carrying it unaware.

then there is the expert who said it should be easily contained but expects the death rate for infected people to end up closer to 10pc but it’s not as bad as SARS

There are reports that the original cases at least one or two had no contact with the market so it may have started before that time and been brought in there.

and there’s half the people saying China aren’t accurately reporting figures and others saying they are overreacting because they were embarrassed about SARS

health officials have requested those travelling from affected areas to keep the kids out of school for 14 days but haven’t made that compulsory just a voluntary thing.

I still don’t feel crazily concerned but I do feel like the messaging and measures are kind of mixed in a way. 
 

im also kind of sad by the odd patch of racism/xenophobia that it seems to be stirring up.  

[Melissa in Australia]

46 minutes ago, StellaM said:

Kids returning to school after spending the holidays in China are being told to stay away for 2 weeks post their return. 

this is only in NSW , in Vic they are told no problems come to school 

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, StellaM said:

Kids returning to school after spending the holidays in China are being told to stay away for 2 weeks post their return. 

They are being “asked”.  It’s 100pc a voluntary thing still.

I think people will do the right thing though maybe that’s optimistic given how many parents try to dose their kids with Panadol and send them to school or daycare with fever etc.

[Slache]

5 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I feel like there’s so many mixed messages with this.  On the one hand there are reports that it can be contagious before symptoms show.  On the other hand they are only contact tracing here for the plane with someone who was symptomatic.  The other three patients who didn’t develop symptoms they aren’t doing any contact tracing or advice for other passengers on the plane.  This says to me that they don’t actually believe it’s contagious prior to symptoms.  Otherwise you effectively risk having one or two planes full of people carrying it unaware.

then there is the expert who said it should be easily contained but expects the death rate for infected people to end up closer to 10pc but it’s not as bad as SARS

There are reports that the original cases at least one or two had no contact with the market so it may have started before that time and been brought in there.

and there’s half the people saying China aren’t accurately reporting figures and others saying they are overreacting because they were embarrassed about SARS

health officials have requested those travelling from affected areas to keep the kids out of school for 14 days but haven’t made that compulsory just a voluntary thing.

I still don’t feel crazily concerned but I do feel like the messaging and measures are kind of mixed in a way. 
 

im also kind of sad by the odd patch of racism/xenophobia that it seems to be stirring up.  

I believe there are two different viruses and coronavirus is a cover-up. I'm not a conspiracy theorist by nature but it definitely explains the duality of it. We're sending everyone home except for one person who was picked up by an ambulance and is being treated in a biodome by a robot? It's just the flu but we're out of room to pile the bodies? It's not serious but let's build three new hospitals just in case? No. They're terrified and I don't believe it's what they're saying it is.

[Ausmumof3]

11 minutes ago, Slache said:

I believe there are two different viruses and coronavirus is a cover-up. I'm not a conspiracy theorist by nature but it definitely explains the duality of it. We're sending everyone home except for one person who was picked up by an ambulance and is being treated in a biodome by a robot? It's just the flu but we're out of room to pile the bodies? It's not serious but let's build three new hospitals just in case? No. They're terrified and I don't believe it's what they're saying it is.

Even as reported If accurate it’s kind of concerning.  Death rate seems to be around 1:40 infections which is higher than typical flu.  Will come down to the spread rate and whether they find more effective treatment I guess.

[Carrie12345]

Yesterday I googled my way into some sources I would never consider reliable.  What I found were some “reports” of numbers that were not reported on what I do consider reliable sources until much, much later.  And those numbers happened to coordinate with what some “crazies” have been projecting for several days.  Knowing what their projected trajectory continues to look like... Well, I’ll say I haven’t gained any optimism and try to leave it at that.

[Lanny]

In China, one year ago, they knew about this Coronavirus? If that is true, that's another cover-up by the Chinese government and IMO very sad.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-marc-siegel-exposes-chinas-reckless-and-really-scary-response-to-coronavirus

I wonder if the U.S. Government was able to send an aircraft to evacuate the approximately 36 employees of the Consulate in Wuhan and their families to the USA? 

[Carrie12345]

3 minutes ago, Lanny said:

In China, one year ago, they knew about this Coronavirus? If that is true, that's another cover-up by the Chinese government and IMO very sad.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-marc-siegel-exposes-chinas-reckless-and-really-scary-response-to-coronavirus

I wonder if the U.S. Government was able to send an aircraft to evacuate the approximately 36 employees of the Consulate in Wuhan and their families to the USA? 

I have not seen anyone, anywhere else, make a full year claim, unless you count those who think this is an intentional thing.  2019, sure.  But we’re only in January of 2020.

[Lanny]

1 minute ago, Carrie12345 said:

I have not seen anyone, anywhere else, make a full year claim, unless you count those who think this is an intentional thing.  2019, sure.  But we’re only in January of 2020.

 

I read the article on FoxNews.com quickly, and I watched a video segment on my Laptop, but if I recall correctly, he is saying they knew about that and where it began, approximately one year ago?   

[Carrie12345]

4 minutes ago, Lanny said:

 

I read the article on FoxNews.com quickly, and I watched a video segment on my Laptop, but if I recall correctly, he is saying they knew about that and where it began, approximately one year ago?   

I’m not 100% clear what I am or am not permitted to say about the source here. 

[DoraBora]

It was all over the news here in TX (and nationally) a few days ago that a student at Texas A&M and another at Baylor University were being quarantined and tested.  Local radio reported yesterday that the CDC had returned negative test for both students.  That (less dramatic) news is a little harder to find than the original stories, but TAMU and BU have confirmed the negative test results on their websites.

 

[TrixieB]

Just saw a report that the man in Germany who is confirmed to have coronavirus got it from a co-worker who was in town from China to do a presentation; co-worker became ill on the flight home to China.  The German man became ill several days later.  The German man did not travel to China - indicating person-to-person transmission.

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Lanny said:

 

I read the article on FoxNews.com quickly, and I watched a video segment on my Laptop, but if I recall correctly, he is saying they knew about that and where it began, approximately one year ago?   

 

It was speculative.  

As I understood it, he said there have been reports of a strange illness for many months. He was speculating that it may have been the current outbreak earlier and also speculating that cases of death attributed to flu may have been this virus.  

That’s certainly possible, and probably would not even take a nefarious cover up to miss something new that resembles other viruses with cold/flu like symptoms.  

My understanding (which may be way off — or from some years back and no longer accurate) is that China has various medical system difficulties, as has USA.  China’s are very different than in USA though and iirc it’s something like people often go to big cities like Wuhan where they can get work — but they can only get medical care in the location that they have their identity cards (or whatever is right term there ) issued.  Maybe someone who reads this and is curious will look up the current rules —or rather the rules as they would have been a month ago, 6 months ago— I assume (hope) in a lock down they’d be taking medical care of people there in Wuhan regardless of where they are from.

 

 

[Cecropia]

43 minutes ago, TrixieB said:

Just saw a report that the man in Germany who is confirmed to have coronavirus got it from a co-worker who was in town from China to do a presentation; co-worker became ill on the flight home to China.  The German man became ill several days later.  The German man did not travel to China - indicating person-to-person transmission.

Also confirming transmission before symptoms appear. Meanwhile, airports continue to check for fevers and wave people through who are possibly asymptomatic, yet contagious...

[mathnerd]

5 hours ago, Slache said:

I believe there are two different viruses and coronavirus is a cover-up. I'm not a conspiracy theorist by nature but it definitely explains the duality of it. We're sending everyone home except for one person who was picked up by an ambulance and is being treated in a biodome by a robot? It's just the flu but we're out of room to pile the bodies? It's not serious but let's build three new hospitals just in case? No. They're terrified and I don't believe it's what they're saying it is.

Rumors abound, as in most communist countries with government clamps on information flow, that the birds used in their secret  bioweapons research program escaped (or it could have been research animals) and infected other birds in that region and they ended up in the live food market. Basically a huge screwup which the government is covering up, according to gossip and this could be why the highest authorities are even acknowledging the severity of Coronavirus. 
 

None of it could be true, as this is only a rumor that my Chinese friend saw on a Chinese chat channel that she is on. Since China is a powerful communist country, they are capable of lying to save face.

eta: read an article that said half of Wuhan fled before the lockdown. Which is in the millions.

Edited January 28, 2020 by mathnerd

[Pen]

 

2 hours ago, Lanny said:

I wonder if the U.S. Government was able to send an aircraft to evacuate the approximately 36 employees of the Consulate in Wuhan and their families to the USA? 

 

Supposed to be “Wednesday” I think.  Presumably tomorrow my time, but internationally days can get confusing. 

[Farrar]

If China is right and that German transmission story gets confirmed and it is transmissible before symptoms appear, then holy crap. That's some bad, bad news.

Hopefully it will all get contained in the next month or so and the number of deaths won't skyrocket, and, all the things we hope. But thinking about this has made me madder than ever at American healthcare. Like, because of the lack of science appointees and the great government downsizing, I read that the US government folks who would usually deal with threats like this literally do not exist right now. We already avoid doctors because of the expense and there's no chance of getting a break if you think you were exposed to this outbreak so there's no reason to go in unless you're rich or sure you have it and are worried about your life. Lots of people will avoid care and detection if it ends up coming here in full. Like, can we just get our healthcare together enough to not all die in a plague? Ugh.

[ashfern]

4 hours ago, Lanny said:

 

I read the article on FoxNews.com quickly, and I watched a video segment on my Laptop, but if I recall correctly, he is saying they knew about that and where it began, approximately one year ago?   

I read somewhere that they've known since Dec 8th of 2019. So, last year but not a year ago.

[BeachGal]

Germany is not the first human to human transmission, just the first known case in Europe unless there are others who haven't been reported. Asia has had human to human transmissions and some of them have recovered.

US sources are saying the average incubation period seems to be around 5 days but that is average. It's possible it could be as long as 14 days, which is long, but from what I've been reading that number might not be accurate. If possible, it's probably prudent to behave as if that number is accurate.

Here is a graph that shows how contagious and deadly it is compared to other viruses:

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/the-microbescope-infectious-diseases-in-context/

[prairiewindmomma]

On 1/24/2020 at 8:15 AM, BeachGal said:

Virologist Yi Guan is worried. He is a top notch virologist in Hong Kong who helped to identify the coronavirus that caused the SARS outbreaks. He was not terribly worried about SARS but is worried about this virus. People from Wuhan have already traveled for the Chinese New Year. It will be very difficult to contain. Heaven help places like India if it’s there.

The “better” news is that healthier individuals appear to be able to survive it. It can wop the heck out of your lungs, though.

 A few thoughts:

1. I'm glad (perhaps only in this one instance) that China is an authoritarian regime with strong central control.  This is a time when it's good to be able to impose travel bans, curfews, etc.

1.5 I also don't find it surprising that initial reports were perhaps downplayed/minimized. There are some strong cultural factors at work.  Honest bad news isn't very welcome in Chinese culture. 

2. Reportedly, the virus is .12 microns.  N95 masks only filter down to .3 microns.  So, the mask is good to keep you from touching your face, and maybe the virus particles will bounce off sideways, but it suggests that just masking up is going to be of limited benefit in preventing disease transmission.

3. My classes on the history of disease and medicine showed that there's a pretty decent historical background for how epidemics roll out.  The initial cases are small in number but have higher mortality rates. The virus will continue to adapt until it can more safely survive in a population (right, can't replicate if you kill your host too quickly)----more people become infected but have fewer complications, and the cycle goes on. 

4. I suspect that those who have traveled out of Wuhan with the virus who had only mild symptoms of a cold have problably helped it establish roots elsewhere. Spread to countries with poor infrastructure, poor nutrition, and crowded populations (ie India) is especially worrisome. 

5. I'm deeply concerned about a continued rise in xenophobia.  Our girls' elementary school is currently hosting Chinese exchange students. The poor school has been flooded with calls by worried parents.  Our area actually has a lot of Chinese.....I can only imagine how bad it might be for international students/workers in a less diverse area.

[Farrar]

22 minutes ago, BeachGal said:

Germany is not the first human to human transmission, just the first known case in Europe unless there are others who haven't been reported. Asia has had human to human transmissions and some of them have recovered.

US sources are saying the average incubation period seems to be around 5 days but that is average. It's possible it could be as long as 14 days, which is long, but from what I've been reading that number might not be accurate. If possible, it's probably prudent to behave as if that number is accurate.

Here is a graph that shows how contagious and deadly it is compared to other viruses:

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/the-microbescope-infectious-diseases-in-context/

There have been plenty of human to human transmissions. The thing that was alarming was that people were saying it was transmitted during incubation, which is different from SARS and MERS and most corona viruses apparently. And it would mean all the methods of tracking the disease aren't sufficient. The Chinese government says it can be transmitted during incubation. The WHO and other leading groups say, um, we don't think so, but they're clearly unsure.