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6 minutes ago, StellaM said:

 

I think the revised advice is based on a case in Germany ?

I am quite worried about the wellbeing of the refugee family with two small daughters being held on Christmas Island, which is where returned expats will be held for the period of their quarantine.  

In The press conference before it was said that they would be housed in a separate facility and not at risk.  It seems like it could be sensible and easier to relocate them though.

sounds like some people feel like evacuating might just put them at more risk versus staying locked down.  Sharing a plane etc.  and I guess once they are there if there’s another case the 14 days has to go from that time.  Unless families are completely isolated on Christmas Island.

In vic the most recent patient and his family dined at a restaurant on Sunday night.

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DS got home 3 hours ago!  ❤️❤️

Update-  my youngest is not only short of breath, coughing, dizzy, nausaues, and with headache-  she is also confused.  I called our doctor and talked with him and she is going to be going to the ER.

That's not a blanket right.  If my religion required human sacrifice, I can't practice it.  If my religion required sexual assault, I can't practice it. Freedom of religion isn't a blanket right

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8 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Apparently SARS only hit around 8000 confirmed cases worldwide.  This isn’t far off that already.  I’m not sure how the timelines compare.
I have also seen that there are over 1000 people still in critical condition.  That seems high out of 6000 cases?

It does to me!
I was looking at the CDCs flu estimates for this year. They show about half of all cases going to get medical attention. At most, about 3.5% of those patients get hospitalized. And then deaths equal anywhere from 3-14% of the number of hospitalizations.

Not that I believe we can fairly compare stats *yet. If ever.  Too many holes. But it’s enough, imo, to know it shouldn’t be shrugged at like we do the flu. And I’ve learned too much to ever shrug ay the flu again !

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It has just been announced, that scientists in Australia have "successfully grown a Wuhan coronavirus sample from a sick patient,...?
https://www.businessinsider.com/australia-successfully-grows-wuhan-coronavirus-sample-from-sick-patient-2020-1/?r=AU&IR=T

This opens up the potential, to develop an 'antibody test' for the virus.  As well as a possible vaccine.
But it also provides an opportunity to gain greater understanding of the Virus?
Such as 'what temperatures it can survive at'?  'How long can it survive on a surface?'
Coronavirus, can travel in 'respiratory droplets'.  That are coughed or breathed out.
What would be helpful, is the worldwide introduction of 'de-humidifiers' in all public buildings. As they extract these water droplets from the air.
Their is really little known about this?  So now that it has been grown, understanding it can begin.

But this potential for people being infectious, before having symptoms?  Presents an extremely difficult situation?

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13 minutes ago, geodob said:

It has just been announced, that scientists in Australia have "successfully grown a Wuhan coronavirus sample from a sick patient,...?
https://www.businessinsider.com/australia-successfully-grows-wuhan-coronavirus-sample-from-sick-patient-2020-1/?r=AU&IR=T

This opens up the potential, to develop an 'antibody test' for the virus.  As well as a possible vaccine.
But it also provides an opportunity to gain greater understanding of the Virus?
Such as 'what temperatures it can survive at'?  'How long can it survive on a surface?'
Coronavirus, can travel in 'respiratory droplets'.  That are coughed or breathed out.
What would be helpful, is the worldwide introduction of 'de-humidifiers' in all public buildings. As they extract these water droplets from the air.
Their is really little known about this?  So now that it has been grown, understanding it can begin.

But this potential for people being infectious, before having symptoms?  Presents an extremely difficult situation?

In much of the world, buildings are currently *too* de-humidified.  We just grabbed ds a humidifier b/c we’re so dry he’s getting nosebleeds.

I believe it was on these forums that someone recently posted about over-dry conditions in hospitals leading to the continued circulation of viruses in the air.  They found that upping the humidity reduced spread.

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Yes, if the air is too dry?  Then the viruses can float as 'aerosol transmissions'.  Waiting for rehydration.
Here's a link to some research, that identified 40% to 60% humidity as the best to stop viral transmission.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahbinder/2019/10/17/harvard-researcher-says-this-inexpensive-action-will-lower-hospital-infection-rates-and-protect-us-for-the-flu-season/#409a0fdc1824

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5 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

British airways have suspended flights to and from mainland China 

 

I wonder if this is mainly due to economic reasons -- there can't be that many people wanting to fly to China right now.  Also, I bet it is hard for airlines to find cabin crews who want to work these flights.

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United Airlines cancelled some flights into and out of China yesterday as well.

Yesterday at the CDC briefing Dr. Fauci mentioned that epidemics are always caused by symptomatic cases. Here’s what he said:

“But the one thing historically people need to realize -- that even if there is some asymptomatic transmission -- in all the history of respiratory borne viruses of any type, asymptomatic transmission has never been the driver of outbreaks. The driver of outbreaks is always a symptomatic person, even if there’s a rare asymptomatic person that might transit. An epidemic is not driven by asymptomatic carriers. "

The CDC is evaluating the contacts of infected people here in the US to see if they are shedding the virus and if so, how much.

China also asked for international help yesterday. Finally.

Edited by BeachGal
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35 minutes ago, BeachGal said:

United Airlines cancelled flights into and out of China yesterday as well.

Yesterday at the CDC briefing Dr. Fauci mentioned that epidemics are always caused by symptomatic cases. Here’s what he said:

“But the one thing historically people need to realize -- that even if there is some asymptomatic transmission -- in all the history of respiratory borne viruses of any type, asymptomatic transmission has never been the driver of outbreaks. The driver of outbreaks is always a symptomatic person, even if there’s a rare asymptomatic person that might transit. An epidemic is not driven by asymptomatic carriers. "

The CDC is evaluating the contacts of infected people here in the US to see if they are shedding the virus and if so, how much.

China also asked for international help yesterday. Finally.

Yeah, apparently China asked for help while Dr. Fauci, et al, were live. They were quite diplomatic in saying how much China WAS doing, without outright calling them out for refusing help...

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16 hours ago, wilrunner said:

All the talk about masks has me curious. I wear glasses. Every time I've worn a mask, my glasses fog up and I can't see, so I end up putting the mask over my mouth and not my nose. Has there been a mask developed that people who wear glasses can use?

 

I was noticing this this weekend wearing a mask and finally had the mask in the car and only wore it when getting out of the car, not while driving.

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8 hours ago, BeachGal said:

United Airlines cancelled flights into and out of China yesterday as well.

Yesterday at the CDC briefing Dr. Fauci mentioned that epidemics are always caused by symptomatic cases. Here’s what he said:

“But the one thing historically people need to realize -- that even if there is some asymptomatic transmission -- in all the history of respiratory borne viruses of any type, asymptomatic transmission has never been the driver of outbreaks. The driver of outbreaks is always a symptomatic person, even if there’s a rare asymptomatic person that might transit. An epidemic is not driven by asymptomatic carriers. "

 

Historically, “epidemics” May have been with viruses that weren’t transmitted except by symptomatic carriers.  

Certainly there have been historical problems with asymptomatic carriers — though perhaps not “epidemic” as Fauci understands it (and/or not a virus and/or perhaps not being spread by direct human vectors) cases like Typhoid Mary, fairly common asymptomatic strep carriers, asymptomatic STD (forgot new term for sexually transmitted diseases like chlamydia carriers, and syphilis).   Small pox carried (perhaps on blankets not people, though perhaps also directly from people) to Native Americans by Europeans whose immune systems were used to it.

 

With a respiratory virus if someone isn’t coughing or sneezing there’s probably less virus going less far from that person via ordinary breathing than where someone forcefully otoh it is harder for that person or those around to know to take precautions. 

 

Quote

The CDC is evaluating the contacts of infected people here in the US to see if they are shedding the virus and if so, how much.

 

That’s good. 

Quote

China also asked for international help yesterday. Finally.

 

Good.  But ominous as to how bad it must be

Edited by Pen
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   16 hours ago,  wilrunner said: 

All the talk about masks has me curious. I wear glasses. Every time I've worn a mask, my glasses fog up and I can't see, so I end up putting the mask over my mouth and not my nose. Has there been a mask developed that people who wear glasses can use?

 

I have problems with chemicals and wear masks for that a lot, and also wear glasses. 

It is often a problem but can be minimized:

1) It is less a problem if there’s a space between mask and glasses.  

2) less a problem if mask is snug (if there’s a metal nose bridge try to shape it well).  Surgeons and people doing work that requires both goggles and masks and needing to see without fog up sometimes tape the mask along bridge of nose and cheeks to keep air from coming out toward glasses.  sometimes tape just on nose 

3) some glasses cleaners / products help to alleviate fog up (like an old trick of spitting on snorkeling masks), soapy water is supposed to, but I don’t want soap on my glasses

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Rolf Hilgenfeld at U of Lubeck and one of the top experts on coronavirus said that it does not mutate easily and actually tends to fix its mutations, unlike flu, for example. He also added that the vaccine would not be difficult to make but needs funding. It is more contagious but so far mortality rates are lower than SARS. Could change but while some have extremely serious lower respiratory infections, others have been mild and have already recovered.

I’m standing on a train so can’t respond much but Fauci was talking about airborne respiratory infections.

CDC will likely come out with updated US numbers sometime today.

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https://youtu.be/RECcmQQQOj8

this is an older doctor from England talking about how to keep well.  

Including a little simulated visual on how to wash hands

   It could be applicable to colds and flu as well as coronavirus

It is essentially the same concepts that I was raised with (I’m one of the older boardies , I think) , concepts and practices that I think have been perhaps been lost to a younger generation raised to believe in going out in public when sick as standard.  And relying on vaccines and hand sanitizers may also have made a change.  And I don’t think this new approach is working well.  So many more people seem to be sick over and over.  

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7 minutes ago, Pen said:

https://youtu.be/RECcmQQQOj8

this is an older doctor from England talking about how to keep well.  

Including a little simulated visual on how to wash hands

   It could be applicable to colds and flu as well as coronavirus

It is essentially the same concepts that I was raised with (I’m one of the older boardies , I think) , concepts and practices that I think have been perhaps been lost to a younger generation raised to believe in going out in public when sick as standard.  And relying on vaccines and hand sanitizers may also have made a change.  And I don’t think this new approach is working well.  So many more people seem to be sick over and over.  

Yes. We have to go to work sick or we're fired. We have to go to class sick or we'll get dropped from the class. We are expected to go about our daily lives and to hell with everyone else. Even in the food industry I was told I would be fired if I called off sick.

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2 minutes ago, Slache said:

Yes. We have to go to work sick or we're fired. We have to go to class sick or we'll get dropped from the class. We are expected to go about our daily lives and to hell with everyone else. Even in the food industry I was told I would be fired if I called off sick.

 

Maybe this coronavirus could help to get things changed in that regard.  

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Just now, Pen said:

Maybe this coronavirus could help to get things changed in that regard.  

Yeah, keep dreaming. All we care about is the bottom dollar anymore. There might be temporary changes from this but it will go back.

Sorry. I guess I'm not feeling very optimistic about this.

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13 hours ago, Thatboyofmine said:

So for those who know way more than me about disease spread (everyone)...  Once a disease becomes worldwide and at epidemic level, what causes it to naturally die off?  Is it that people start gaining immunity to it?  How long does that take?  

 

Viruses tend to mutate to be less fatal over time.  If more fatal they won't reproduce, and as with all life the goal is reproduction.

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Re diseases dying off over time...

I think if you look back at various plagues (bacteria) the reason for the rise in the disease was always environmental, it killed everyone who wasn't immune, and the reason for the decline in the disease was also environmental.

And I don't mean just dirty water.  I mean slight climate shifts changing the level of grain stores and rodent populations. 

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50 minutes ago, Pen said:

https://youtu.be/RECcmQQQOj8

this is an older doctor from England talking about how to keep well.  

Including a little simulated visual on how to wash hands

   It could be applicable to colds and flu as well as coronavirus

It is essentially the same concepts that I was raised with (I’m one of the older boardies , I think) , concepts and practices that I think have been perhaps been lost to a younger generation raised to believe in going out in public when sick as standard.  And relying on vaccines and hand sanitizers may also have made a change.  And I don’t think this new approach is working well.  So many more people seem to be sick over and over.  

As I understand, Chinese culture is/was the same, as far as going to work or school and such sick. I don't know how much that has changed since SARS, but Chinese social media has some people complaining about not being able to go to work (or do anything else for that matter).

You're right about the hand sanitizers changing mindsets. I remember watching a video about the effectiveness of hand sanitizers vs regular soap, and soap wins out because it kills germs long-term, whereas sanitizers don't. This has me wondering about those hand blow dryers. I don't use them anyway because of the whole "blow fecal matter bacteria directly on your hands" thing, but I can imagine the air moving other germs around more quickly in a closed environment.

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U.S. May Halt All Flights to China Amid Coronavirus Outbreak

The White House is considering pausing all flights between the U.S. and China, according to reports from CNBC, an unprecedented move to curb the rapid spread of a new coronavirus that has infected nearly 5,000 people worldwide.

President Donald Trump’s administration recently told major U.S. airlines that it’s considering the temporary flying ban. No final decisions have been made, and the White House was not expected to take that step immediately. CNBC cited several people familiar with the administration’s planning who would not be named as the White House considers a range of options to contain the outbreak.

The prospect of halting flights to China altogether marks a major escalation in the global response to the coronavirus. There are dozens of flights between the U.S. and China each day.

The new virus has now killed more than 100 people and infected 4,700 people and counting. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) initially urged travelers to exercise caution when traveling to Wuhan, China – where the outbreak originated. The CDC now warns travelers to avoid all “non-essential” travel to all of China – it’s highest, level 3 warning.

As alarm grows, U.S. health officials recently expanded additional screenings for coronavirus from five U.S. airports to 20. Meanwhile, airlines are making their own decisions.

United Airlines said Tuesday it would scrap dozens of flights to mainland China and Hong Kong in February. British Airways is canceling all its flights to Shanghai (PVG) and Beijing (PEK) for at least the next month, Paxex.aero reports. Many other airlines, including Delta and American, have issued change fee travel waivers for flights to China over the next month.

https://thriftytraveler.com/us-may-halt-all-flights-to-china-amid-coronavirus/

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1 hour ago, Renai said:

As I understand, Chinese culture is/was the same, as far as going to work or school and such sick. I don't know how much that has changed since SARS, but Chinese social media has some people complaining about not being able to go to work (or do anything else for that matter).

 

Pictures I saw of a Beijing showed streets nearly deserted. 

 

1 hour ago, Renai said:

You're right about the hand sanitizers changing mindsets. I remember watching a video about the effectiveness of hand sanitizers vs regular soap, and soap wins out because it kills germs long-term, whereas sanitizers don't. This has me wondering about those hand blow dryers. I don't use them anyway because of the whole "blow fecal matter bacteria directly on your hands" thing, but I can imagine the air moving other germs around more quickly in a closed environment.

 

I didn’t think about the blow driers problem too—most public places I go still have tear off paper towels. 

I’m not sure if hand sanitizers are good because better than nothing,  or bad because they give false sense of security and people don’t wash their hands with soap then.   I did notice that even when hands are washed in situations like kindergarten irl that I have seen, it isn’t long enough or thorough enough.  

 

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33 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

U.S. May Halt All Flights to China Amid Coronavirus Outbreak

The White House is considering pausing all flights between the U.S. and China, according to reports from CNBC, an unprecedented move to curb the rapid spread of a new coronavirus that has infected nearly 5,000 people worldwide.

President Donald Trump’s administration recently told major U.S. airlines that it’s considering the temporary flying ban. No final decisions have been made, and the White House was not expected to take that step immediately. CNBC cited several people familiar with the administration’s planning who would not be named as the White House considers a range of options to contain the outbreak.

The prospect of halting flights to China altogether marks a major escalation in the global response to the coronavirus. There are dozens of flights between the U.S. and China each day.

 

I read that 8000 or more people from China arrive in USA daily.   Probably as with Australia it’s a much higher number at peak times like as University terms are starting .  

We know some people in process of international adoption and I have a brother in law who is of Chinese descent with family in China.  I think plans for travel were personally put on hold even without bans.  

Bans maybe could help prevent the sort of pressure of if you don’t go you’ll lose job, or that sort of thing perhaps.  I don’t know about university students—would a travel ban allow a tuition refund or whatever was needed.  

Idk. Maybe Skype or that sort of thing could be used more in place of business or classes at this time. 

 

 

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I haven't followed this thread too closely but saw this blog today and thought you all might be interested:

http://americanspeechcompany.com/helpful-speaking-articles/helpful-tips/

From what I read in an article about him, he's an American who teaches English in Wuhan.  He had a seat on a plane back to the US, but gave it up for someone who needed it more, and now plans to write about his experiences there.

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43 minutes ago, Excelsior! Academy said:

Dh and I just finished Containment a CW series that is currently on Netflix.  That show has creepy similarities to this outbreak.  

I haven't see that, but I keep thinking of that Stephen King novel, The Stand. I guess it has been made into a couple of different TV series.

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24 minutes ago, klmama said:

I haven't see that, but I keep thinking of that Stephen King novel, The Stand. I guess it has been made into a couple of different TV series.

My husband will not stop talking about this. Even events in the news are lining up.

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1 hour ago, J-rap said:

I haven't followed this thread too closely but saw this blog today and thought you all might be interested:

http://americanspeechcompany.com/helpful-speaking-articles/helpful-tips/

From what I read in an article about him, he's an American who teaches English in Wuhan.  He had a seat on a plane back to the US, but gave it up for someone who needed it more, and now plans to write about his experiences there.

 

I haven't read the blog post you linked to yet, but as an Overseas American, and a former airline employee, I believe the Logistics of setting up the evacuation flight for the approximately 3 dozen U.S. Citizen employees (and their families) in the Consulate in Wuhan were extremely difficult.

I had read that the government had told civilians that wanted to go on the flight that they would need to pay MANY times what the normal fare is, so today when I saw they were only charging $1000 USD per passenger, I thought that was very low.

For someone who was in Wuhan temporarily and got caught there, to get home to the USA for only $1000, is a bargain.

However, for those of us who are Overseas Americans, if they took us to Southern California (as in the case of the evacuation from Wuhan) or to somewhere near Washington, DC, for another example, and our lives are overseas, where we would go and what we would do is an interesting question.

For those who go as Tourists, on a Cruise, or on a Air/Land tour, for vacation, this is a suggestion that they consider Travel Accident insurance that covers Medical issues and also Evacuation and under what circumstances they would pay for an Evacuation.

If the airlines cancel flights, or one country where there is an issue (China in this case) doesn't permit people to leave their country, or another country, for example doesn't permit people who are arriving from an affected area (China in this case) then the existence of Evacuation insurance isn't going to get someone to their home in the USA or another country.

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There’s a patient in isolation at one of the hospitals here. We’re waiting for the CDC to confirm. They arrived from China Jan 14 and were asymptomatic. 

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11 minutes ago, Lanny said:

 

I haven't read the blog post you linked to yet, but as an Overseas American, and a former airline employee, I believe the Logistics of setting up the evacuation flight for the approximately 3 dozen U.S. Citizen employees (and their families) in the Consulate in Wuhan were extremely difficult.

I had read that the government had told civilians that wanted to go on the flight that they would need to pay MANY times what the normal fare is, so today when I saw they were only charging $1000 USD per passenger, I thought that was very low.

For someone who was in Wuhan temporarily and got caught there, to get home to the USA for only $1000, is a bargain.

However, for those of us who are Overseas Americans, if they took us to Southern California (as in the case of the evacuation from Wuhan) or to somewhere near Washington, DC, for another example, and our lives are overseas, where we would go and what we would do is an interesting question.

For those who go as Tourists, on a Cruise, or on a Air/Land tour, for vacation, this is a suggestion that they consider Travel Accident insurance that covers Medical issues and also Evacuation and under what circumstances they would pay for an Evacuation.

If the airlines cancel flights, or one country where there is an issue (China in this case) doesn't permit people to leave their country, or another country, for example doesn't permit people who are arriving from an affected area (China in this case) then the existence of Evacuation insurance isn't going to get someone to their home in the USA or another country.

I believe this to be true.  Australian officials are saying with the plane leaving Wuhan that it’s a “very narrow window of opportunity” and may not be available a second time.  I do believe the Japanese donation of supplies probably helped with the fact their plane was one of the first organised.  
 

Aus evacuation effort is prioritising those who have been there a short time over those who have been living in the area and have local contacts and support networks.  So it’s really only aimed at travellers to the area.   They are going to be asking people to pay their own costs or a percentage of them.  

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6 hours ago, Pen said:

https://youtu.be/RECcmQQQOj8

this is an older doctor from England talking about how to keep well.  

Including a little simulated visual on how to wash hands

   It could be applicable to colds and flu as well as coronavirus

It is essentially the same concepts that I was raised with (I’m one of the older boardies , I think) , concepts and practices that I think have been perhaps been lost to a younger generation raised to believe in going out in public when sick as standard.  And relying on vaccines and hand sanitizers may also have made a change.  And I don’t think this new approach is working well.  So many more people seem to be sick over and over.  

 

The beloved pediatrician I had when my first was a teeny baby: “It’s flu season. Just keep your baby home, and enjoy the time getting to know each other.”

I loved that man. That was a wonderful winter. Of course I realize not everyone is able to stay home - bills gotta get paid - but with all the technology we have, being sequestered at home isn’t always the hardship it used to be. I do think there’s wisdom in it. 

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5 hours ago, Katy said:

 

Viruses tend to mutate to be less fatal over time.  If more fatal they won't reproduce, and as with all life the goal is reproduction.

 

Yes, if they kill off all the hosts they can’t survive. 

2 hours ago, Slache said:

My husband will not stop talking about this. Even events in the news are lining up.

 

STOOOPPPP!!!! I didn’t need that idea in my head!

(checking routes to Colorado now....)

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43 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

7,260 confirmed and 170 deaths now.

For whatever it’s worth, that’s slightly higher than some of the projections that were made by people who’ve been saying that this is going to be bad. People who are generally considered crazy alarmists.

If their projections for tomorrow pan out... I’m not going to be happy.

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4 hours ago, Pen said:

I’m not sure if hand sanitizers are good because better than nothing,  or bad because they give false sense of security and people don’t wash their hands with soap then.   I did notice that even when hands are washed in situations like kindergarten irl that I have seen, it isn’t long enough or thorough enough.  

 

When I was student teaching, we were instructed not to allow first graders to wash hands before lunch or at any time during the day because it “takes away too much instructional time; just use hand sanitizer.”  And at the schools where I sub, not a single classroom has any time for hand washing, nor is there even a convenient way set up for kids to do so even in the bathrooms.  Frequently there’s no soap or paper towels.  “Just get a squirt of hand sanitizer.”

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3 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

7,736 according to a news outlet I trust. 7,814 from one I’m not so sure about. CNN still stuck on 6,000ish.  That was my go-to site... until now, lol.

Wiki has the figures I’ve had and I’ve also seen them from an official looking Chinese website however who knows.  I think the around 6000 is from WHO but they don’t seem to be adjusted since yesterday?  Clearly I spent too much time thinking about this.  I do think it will be easier to control here so I’m still not stressed but would be nice to see a more consistent approach to management:  the health lady here doing the official press conferences is looking slightly anxious.

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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Wiki has the figures I’ve had and I’ve also seen them from an official looking Chinese website however who knows.  I think the around 6000 is from WHO but they don’t seem to be adjusted since yesterday?  Clearly I spent too much time thinking about this.  I do think it will be easier to control here so I’m still not stressed but would be nice to see a more consistent approach to management:  the health lady here doing the official press conferences is looking slightly anxious.

I agree that it’s likely to be easier to manage in some of our countries... if done well/right/whatever words fit.
The WHO guy saying they regret not ringing a bigger bell before somehow makes me more distrustful and more hopeful at the same time, so I guess it’s a wash, lol.

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1 hour ago, Carrie12345 said:

For whatever it’s worth, that’s slightly higher than some of the projections that were made by people who’ve been saying that this is going to be bad. People who are generally considered crazy alarmists.

If their projections for tomorrow pan out... I’m not going to be happy.

 

Keep in mind the confirmed numbers can only go up as much as the volume of tests they have.

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Latest confirmed Australian case fell ill while on a plane from Melbourne to Gold Coast.  Several other passengers travelling in the group with him are now showing signs of illness.  Two Australians in China have been confirmed ill.  However the area they are in is nowhere near Wuhan and doesn’t seem to be in the locked down areas.  I would feel happier if they stopped flights to Australia to be honest or at least imposed quarantine periods.  Seems madness that Australian citizens have to be quarantined on Christmas Island and tourists can come freely.  Admittedly they aren’t from Wuhan area but there seem to be a fair number of cases outside that zone 

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

3 people evacuated on the Japanese flight tested positive and several are showing symptoms on a second flight.

 

That seems high if there were actually only 6000-8000 cases in a city the size of Wuhan.  

I mean for that many Japanese to have happened to have encountered ill Chinese, it seems to me that there must be way higher numbers of people sick (or asymptomatically transmitting disease) than have been suggested in reports I have seen.   

Unless it was something like a single tour group all of whom encountered the same sick person.  

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27 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

That seems high if there were actually only 6000-8000 cases in a city the size of Wuhan.  

I mean for that many Japanese to have happened to have encountered ill Chinese, it seems to me that there must be way higher numbers of people sick (or asymptomatically transmitting disease) than have been suggested in reports I have seen.   

Unless it was something like a single tour group all of whom encountered the same sick person.  

Yeah I agree

although I think there’s something like 12,000 suspected cases as well.  I guess realistically if I was in Wuhan and mildly ill I probably wouldn’t rush to go to an overcrowded hospital where I was guaranteed to catch it.  So possibly it’s more widespread with mild symptoms and the figures just reflect those bad enough/desperate enough to actually go for medical help?  Would that make sense?  Which in some ways would mean it’s likely less lethal.  But possibly more contagious.  Or it’s been going on for quite a bit longer but not acknowledged.  

I’m also pretty sketchy about the actual numbers reported anyway. 

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31 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

That seems high if there were actually only 6000-8000 cases in a city the size of Wuhan.  

I mean for that many Japanese to have happened to have encountered ill Chinese, it seems to me that there must be way higher numbers of people sick (or asymptomatically transmitting disease) than have been suggested in reports I have seen.   

Unless it was something like a single tour group all of whom encountered the same sick person.  

Yes or all one family or something.

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3 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yeah I agree

although I think there’s something like 12,000 suspected cases as well.  I guess realistically if I was in Wuhan and mildly ill I probably wouldn’t rush to go to an overcrowded hospital where I was guaranteed to catch it.  So possibly it’s more widespread with mild symptoms and the figures just reflect those bad enough/desperate enough to actually go for medical help?  Would that make sense?  Which in some ways would mean it’s likely less lethal.  But possibly more contagious.  Or it’s been going on for quite a bit longer but not acknowledged.  

I’m also pretty sketchy about the actual numbers reported anyway. 

A bulletin on about the second day (I'm thinking EST, not Beijing time) asked people not to go to the hospital at the first sign of illness because of it getting overcrowded. I was reading a message on WeChat a little while ago about a family of three getting sick nearby where the poster lived; only the 73 year old male was taken to the hospital by ambulance. Apparently they'd been sick for 13 days without telling anyone (but had been self-quarantined).

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I have a tendency toward anxiety about the news overall - what websites or news sources do y’all recommend that gives straightforward, realistic, non-sensational information about this? I’m feeling a little fatigued with the regular news and Impeachment! Kobe! Climate Change! etc. (all important things, I just can’t take any more stress now)

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