wuhan - coronavirus

[mlktwins]

My Goddaughter is in China for some type of college thing.  She left for there after Christmas.  I am a bit worried about her 😞.

[beaners]

1 hour ago, gardenmom5 said:

they didn't say it did - they said it was a possible escape.

escapes from research facilities do happen - and are documented.  the number of medical personal practicing all protocols while treating patients - who themselves end up ill, is still much too high.

having just been a patient in "droplet" protocols for two days before it was dropped - I watched at least one nurse be lax because it was "too much bother" to do the full protocol.

 

There is definitely a protocol fatigue that you run into in your example. We are frequently put under these protocols when we have a kid in the hospital because running a viral panel triggers precautions. Almost every time the doctors have no assumption of illness, but they need to rule it out before taking another course of action. It makes it easy to take things less seriously when there are so many false alarms.

Regardless of where it originated, I do worry about it a little. Not as much about actually coming into contact with it at this point (hopefully), but about medical services being overloaded by people with simple colds who think they have this, reducing availability for care for people who do need it.

[Ausmumof3]

4 hours ago, maize said:

Quoting this one more time you address the part I bolded: when flu-like virus or flu-like illness are mentioned the phrase doesn't usually refer to the actual virus being similar to or related to the influenza virus, it refers merely to symptoms being similar to flu symptoms. There are lots are different viruses that can cause flu-like symptoms.

Most often "flu-like" is used in situations where the actual virus hasn't been identified--right now my family is fighting a respiratory virus with flu-like symptoms but I have no idea whether it is caused by influenza or something else because no test had been run.

In other cases the effects of a known virus (such as a coronavirus) may be described as flu-like as a shorthand to convey the types of symptoms that might be expected. 

Coronavirus, as it happens, is also the virus family frequently responsible for that illness we know as The Common Cold 🙂

Interesting.  I always thought they said rhinovirus or something but is it a type of coronavirus?  My biology knowledge is pretty fuzzy

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, StellaM said:

I continue to not be worried, and I have both underlying conditions and health anxiety.

Just wash your hands frequently, don't touch your face with unwashed hands, eat and sleep well, and reduce your stress levels. Make sure any underlying diseases are under good control.

Watch for health advisories from your own state or local health authorities. 

You continue to be more at risk of injury or death every time you get in a car.

That said, I would NOT want to be in the affected areas in China, especially under lockdown, not neccessarily because of the virus, but because of the panic a lockdown would induce.

I feel like this as well.  I think we tend to be more blasé about stuff like this down in Aus but maybe that’s because we have a significantly lower population density.  Or maybe all the anxiety is used up on bushfires right now or something.

[Arcadia]

10 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I feel like this as well.  I think we tend to be more blasé about stuff like this down in Aus but maybe that’s because we have a significantly lower population density.  Or maybe all the anxiety is used up on bushfires right now or something.

 

I think it’s because Asia Pacific region has experienced the SARS epidemic and has protocols in place for dealing with similar 

From SBS https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australian-experts-monitor-potential-spread-of-sars-like-virus-closely

“The mysterious bug has been identified as being a coronavirus - like those which can cause the common cold as well as more clinically serious conditions, such as SARS. 

SARS killed more than 700 people around the world during an outbreak that began in China in 2002. 

Dr Keith Chappell,  also from the University of Queensland, said the information available to Australian researchers did not suggest a SARS-like epidemic was imminent. 

"There's no evidence currently at all of human-to-human transmission. So there's no threat at all,” he said.

“What this highlights is two things: that these types of viruses can emerge, new viruses that we've never seen before. But also that you need to be wary of your interactions with wildlife. It's not known where this virus has come from, but there's speculation that it’s come from a bat because bats are known to carry the mostly closely-related viruses." 

The Department of Health has confirmed no cases of the disease have been reported in Australia, but it would follow the situation closely in collaboration with the states and territories.”

Edited January 24, 2020 by Arcadia

[Ausmumof3]

15 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

 

I think it’s because Asia Pacific region has experienced the SARS epidemic and has protocols in place for dealing with similar 

From SBS https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australian-experts-monitor-potential-spread-of-sars-like-virus-closely

“The mysterious bug has been identified as being a coronavirus - like those which can cause the common cold as well as more clinically serious conditions, such as SARS. 

SARS killed more than 700 people around the world during an outbreak that began in China in 2002. 

Dr Keith Chappell,  also from the University of Queensland, said the information available to Australian researchers did not suggest a SARS-like epidemic was imminent. 

"There's no evidence currently at all of human-to-human transmission. So there's no threat at all,” he said.

“What this highlights is two things: that these types of viruses can emerge, new viruses that we've never seen before. But also that you need to be wary of your interactions with wildlife. It's not known where this virus has come from, but there's speculation that it’s come from a bat because bats are known to carry the mostly closely-related viruses." 

The Department of Health has confirmed no cases of the disease have been reported in Australia, but it would follow the situation closely in collaboration with the states and territories.”

Is there still no evidence of human to human transmission?  I would have thought the number of infection would mean their must be but I guess that many people could be exposed or infected wildlife. 
 

I see China is building a new 1000 bed hospital in Wuhan province.

[TravelingChris]

5 hours ago, kand said:

As far as coronaviris vs flu danger, while the potential danger of Wuhan is much worse, it still seemed weird to me that my daughter’s college sent a Wuhan warning to all students yesterday and said they would be wiping down surfaces daily and what symptoms to watch for, etc, but they’ve never done that for flu. At this point, while the flu is unlikely to be a danger to most people who get it, it’s still a bigger risk overall to people so far than this new virus. Far more people have died of it so far. So why not those precautions with the flu?

Now, if this does start spreading, obviously we have a bigger problem. The statistic I have seen is a 3% death rate from it. Which is obviously much worse than flu.

THere is dying and then there is lung damage, weeks in hospitals, etc to worry about too.  I am gla2 weed that they have inspectors in Atlanta because I am going to that airport in 2 weeks not to fly out but because we booked a suite at the Embassy Suites near the airport and will be taking the free shuttle to the airport and using the Metro.

[Ausmumof3]

First confirmed case in Melbourne 

[KungFuPanda]

The first day of classes after winter break for my daughter's university is Monday.  I imagine there are going to be a lot of returning college students going through some extra screening all around the country.  The kids always seem to be sick for a few weeks when everyone brings back their out-of-town cooties, so the health centers are bound to be extra busy.  Dd's school dropped the health-info-sharing ball in a big way last year so they're already overcompensating with email for this one.

[Renai]

Finally got back on China social media (Weibo), Wuhan Union Hospital was running low on supplies for the medical staff as of last night, EST.  People are talking a lot about itm Mostly precautions, a bunch of anger at governments, speculation about why no information about a couple of provinces (a few asked if the internet was shut down), praising medical staff who are on the front lines. Notices from their health department are also being posted. (I use the Google translate app for the notices. Weibo has an in-built translation.)

I keep thinking how close I was to working in China this school year. In the end, I decided to wait another year. New cases were found in Chengde City, a 3 hour drive from Beijing.

WHO says, yes, it is an emergency in China, but not a global one.

Edited January 25, 2020 by Renai

[Arcadia]

From CNN https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/23/health/us-wuhan-coronavirus-doctor-interview/index.html

“(CNN)The first person diagnosed with the Wuhan coronavirus in the United States is being treated by a few medical workers and a robot.

The robot, equipped with a stethoscope, is helping doctors take the man's vitals and communicate with him through a large screen, said Dr. George Diaz, chief of the infectious disease division at the Providence Regional Medical Center in Everett, Washington.”

 

[mommyoffive]

Wow, the death toll has gone up to 41. 

[Ausmumof3]

So 41 out of 1200 odd cases means it’s about 1 in every 30 people that contracted it have died.  I guess it’s possible that more people have the virus but aren’t tested because they have only mild symptoms.  

[mommyoffive]

7 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

So 41 out of 1200 odd cases means it’s about 1 in every 30 people that contracted it have died.  I guess it’s possible that more people have the virus but aren’t tested because they have only mild symptoms.  

 

Or that China is not being 100% honest with the information coming out.  

[ashfern]

What masks are the best to get for something like this? 

[Renai]

1 hour ago, Plum said:

Dh can’t believe they are calling that a robot, he calls it a doc in a box. It’s like when Sheldon from Big Bang theory attached his iPad to a Segway. The nurses essentially position it so the doctor can FaceTime. It can take some basic vitals like blood pressure and heart rate,  but it’s hardly a robot  

His hospital is putting up signs at all entrances warning people if they have been to China or have been in contact and believe they were exposed or are feeling flu-like symptoms to go straight home and call it in so the can take precautions and escort you in. There are protocols in place. No cases here yet. 

That is also what Wuhan Hospital advised people to do. If they feel sick but don't have a fever, to stay home. The risk is too great to have too many people going to the hospital. They are building a 1,000 bed hospital within the next 6 days on the outskirts of the city 

[Carrie12345]

7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

So 41 out of 1200 odd cases means it’s about 1 in every 30 people that contracted it have died.  I guess it’s possible that more people have the virus but aren’t tested because they have only mild symptoms.  

 

7 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

 

Or that China is not being 100% honest with the information coming out.  

Whether one trusts China’s honesty or not, it’s pretty logical to assume that there are milder cases going unreported. In China, or elsewhere. 

My 12yo was pretty sick earlier this month, but really only seemed “flu-ey” for less than a day.  Because he woke up the next day with What seemed more like a cold than a flu, I didn’t drag him out to be tested. Later, I started wondering if perhaps it could have been a mild flu because he has had H1N1 before, so maybe that helped minimize symptoms.  But we’ll never know, and he won’t be in the stats if it was.
My oldest was our patient zero in 2009, but he was relatively mild compared to the rest of us and recovering by the time we got two younger kids tested. He’s not in the stats, and I don’t know how many of the rest of us are because our doctor just sent Tamiflu scripts for everyone based on those tests.

Or people are being more vigilant in China. But it doesn’t seem like they’re able to efficiently test in the cities. (Understandably.)

[maize]

39 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

 

Whether one trusts China’s honesty or not, it’s pretty logical to assume that there are milder cases going unreported. In China, or elsewhere. 

My 12yo was pretty sick earlier this month, but really only seemed “flu-ey” for less than a day.  Because he woke up the next day with What seemed more like a cold than a flu, I didn’t drag him out to be tested. Later, I started wondering if perhaps it could have been a mild flu because he has had H1N1 before, so maybe that helped minimize symptoms.  But we’ll never know, and he won’t be in the stats if it was.
My oldest was our patient zero in 2009, but he was relatively mild compared to the rest of us and recovering by the time we got two younger kids tested. He’s not in the stats, and I don’t know how many of the rest of us are because our doctor just sent Tamiflu scripts for everyone based on those tests.

 

Research in the past decade has shown that a majority of influenza infections may actually manifest with only mild symptoms--or even no symptoms at all.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2014/03/17/290878964/even-if-you-dont-have-symptoms-you-may-still-have-the-flu

[Ausmumof3]

30 minutes ago, maize said:

Research in the past decade has shown that a majority of influenza infections may actually manifest with only mild symptoms--or even no symptoms at all.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2014/03/17/290878964/even-if-you-dont-have-symptoms-you-may-still-have-the-flu

I believe this.  There’s so many times when there’s a bug going round that many people have and then one person ends up getting tested and it comes back as flu but really they had pretty much the same as everyone else just slightly sicker.

[Ausmumof3]

Latest report here is they are now building two hospitals and the US are evacuating people by air and France by bus from Wuhan.  Some of the unofficial reports sound scary so I hope they are alarmist/ fake news - most likely.  
 

four confirmed cases for Aus now anyway.  

[TravelingChris]

11 hours ago, StellaM said:

 

I think there is now evidence of human to human transmission, but honestly, I had to turn off the news this morning, I just couldn't handle the endless  parade of terrible things. I think I'm going to just check in once a day.

I still think  it's better to ignore the endless media speculation/cycle as much as possible, while listening out for local health advice. 

At the moment for us, it's still just watch and wait, go to the dr if you get a fever and respiratory symptoms + basic hygiene, no confirmed cases yet.

And I mean, honestly, what else can you do? Even if there was an epidemic here, all we could do is mask up in public and avoid large gatherings, so it's not as if worrying can do much.

Stella, that is what I am doing a lot of .  i know you are not on Triwter but the main thing i use it for  is to quicky glance at news and go on since it is super fast to scroll and read through some headlines.  Without dwelling on it, it really helps. 

[TravelingChris]

9 hours ago, Renai said:

Finally got back on China social media (Weibo), Wuhan Union Hospital was running low on supplies for the medical staff as of last night, EST.  People are talking a lot about itm Mostly precautions, a bunch of anger at governments, speculation about why no information about a couple of provinces (a few asked if the internet was shut down), praising medical staff who are on the front lines. Notices from their health department are also being posted. (I use the Google translate app for the notices. Weibo has an in-built translation.)

I keep thinking how close I was to working in China this school year. In the end, I decided to wait another year. New cases were found in Chengde City, a 3 hour drive from Beijing.

WHO says, yes, it is an emergency in China, but not a global one.

Since it is spreading to other cities as an epidemic, I am fairly sure that there has to be human to human transmission.  Not everyone went to the market place and handled. ate, or was even near the snakes that are alleged to be the vector.

[Chris in VA]

8 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

Since it is spreading to other cities as an epidemic, I am fairly sure that there has to be human to human transmission.  Not everyone went to the market place and handled. ate, or was even near the snakes that are alleged to be the vector.

CNN reported human to human transmission 4 days ago. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/01/19/asia/china-coronavirus-spike-intl-hnk/index.html

I am alert but not acknowledging my anxiety. 

Edited January 25, 2020 by Chris in VA

[TravelingChris]

9 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Wow, the death toll has gone up to 41. 

As Renai upthread was saying,  on Chinese media, the people are angry at the government for not telling them the truth.  I am not sure if there is a percentage by which you should multiply all death tolls arising from sickness and disasters in China but I am absolutely sure they always lie and greatly lower the number of dead to save face and preserve their power.  It is a totalitarian government even though capitalistic now.  I still call them Commies,  but communism is actually more about the economics.  Of course, except in very small groups like kibbutz, it has never worked as a wide scale economic system--- way to complicated for humans to control the economy (or biology too) for a complete country economy. 

[TravelingChris]

1 hour ago, Carrie12345 said:

 

Whether one trusts China’s honesty or not, it’s pretty logical to assume that there are milder cases going unreported. In China, or elsewhere. 

My 12yo was pretty sick earlier this month, but really only seemed “flu-ey” for less than a day.  Because he woke up the next day with What seemed more like a cold than a flu, I didn’t drag him out to be tested. Later, I started wondering if perhaps it could have been a mild flu because he has had H1N1 before, so maybe that helped minimize symptoms.  But we’ll never know, and he won’t be in the stats if it was.
My oldest was our patient zero in 2009, but he was relatively mild compared to the rest of us and recovering by the time we got two younger kids tested. He’s not in the stats, and I don’t know how many of the rest of us are because our doctor just sent Tamiflu scripts for everyone based on those tests.

Or people are being more vigilant in China. But it doesn’t seem like they’re able to efficiently test in the cities. (Understandably.)

I am almost positive I got the flu two years ago-----I always get the flu shot and so do all my family members (5 others).  Three of us have asthma, though my dh is mild.  My youngest is severe asthma and I not only have asthma but also Sjogren's Syndrome so my secretions are really thick.  Anyway, two years ago there was a particularly ineffective flu shot.  I got sick for a day and a half and actually got a fever--101.  ( I never get what doctors call fevers with bacterial infections probably because i am on so many immuno=suppressants or maybe because my immune system is normally in overdrive and so all it does is switch to fighting bacteria versus my joints, eyes, mouth, brain, etc)

3 other family members got the flu (confirmed) but there was much milder than for those who didn't get the shot.  I never went to the doctor for Tamiflu but three days later I did since i got either bad bacterial or pneumonia.

[Terabith]

I went to the doctor yesterday because of flu like symptoms and a fever over 101 even on alternating Tylenol/ ibuprofen.  Doctor was sure it was flu but test was negative, so no tamiflu, even though he still thinks it probably is, given that flu is epidemic in area.  They asked me if I had been to China or been in contact with anyone who had.  So I guess that’s going to be a screener question for awhile.  

[PrincessMommy]

6 minutes ago, Terabith said:

I went to the doctor yesterday because of flu like symptoms and a fever over 101 even on alternating Tylenol/ ibuprofen.  Doctor was sure it was flu but test was negative, so no tamiflu, even though he still thinks it probably is, given that flu is epidemic in area.  They asked me if I had been to China or been in contact with anyone who had.  So I guess that’s going to be a screener question for awhile.  

can you go back and get re-tested since the dr. thought it was the flu?   

My son also had flu-like symptoms about 2-3weeks ago.  He tested negative for the flu so they figured it was viral.  

I'm sorry you're sick. 

[PrincessMommy]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Latest report here is they are now building two hospitals and the US are evacuating people by air and France by bus from Wuhan.  Some of the unofficial reports sound scary so I hope they are alarmist/ fake news - most likely.  
 

four confirmed cases for Aus now anyway.  

just wanted to clarify because I misunderstood what you wrote.  The US is preparing to evacuate US citizens and diplomats from Wuhan.   I assume it is the same for France and other countries.

[Terabith]

6 minutes ago, PrincessMommy said:

can you go back and get re-tested since the dr. thought it was the flu?   

My son also had flu-like symptoms about 2-3weeks ago.  He tested negative for the flu so they figured it was viral.  

I'm sorry you're sick. 

It’s been over 48 hours now, and I have some qualms about Tamiflu side effects anyway.  Apparently the test has a pretty high false negative rate.  (ETA when rates are high in community.)  And it’s possible it is some other virus; symptoms were just classic flu.  Sudden onset, fever, body aches, etc.  I was hoping I would feel up to doing some housework today but feel kinda woozy when I get up, so probably not going to happen.  Sigh.  

Edited January 25, 2020 by Terabith

[Ausmumof3]

2 minutes ago, PrincessMommy said:

just wanted to clarify because I misunderstood what you wrote.  The US is preparing to evacuate US citizens and diplomats from Wuhan.   I assume it is the same for France and other countries.

Sorry France is trying to evacuate people by bus

the us is not evacuating people from France.   Trying to post in between a millions things 

[Ausmumof3]

I wonder whether the evacuations are more to do with the disease or the potential humanitarian problems with the quarantine/lockdown in place.  

[Renai]

1 hour ago, TravelingChris said:

Since it is spreading to other cities as an epidemic, I am fairly sure that there has to be human to human transmission.  Not everyone went to the market place and handled. ate, or was even near the snakes that are alleged to be the vector.

Yes, I think that was confirmed a couple of days ago.

So, I taught a couple of my ESL students (kids) today. They are from Beijing. The oldest was telling me she did not want to go back to Beijing because of the pneumonia (they have traveled to the south). Their school start has been postponed until mid February. She also mentioned that many people traveled as far from the affected areas, and where they are now is crowded. There is a lot of fear out there. 

Another school (international) on Weibo has been posting updates. The latest update is, not only is school postponed from the 3 of February to mid-February, but because of Chinese regulations, everyone is required to do a self-quarantine for 14 days following any travel. That means they have to return to Shanghai (where this school is located) and self-quarantine by February 3, so they can return to school on time.

[Amira]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I wonder whether the evacuations are more to do with the disease or the potential humanitarian problems with the quarantine/lockdown in place.  

I assume it’s more about the the logistics regarding the quarantine. A friend of mine in Wuhan yesterday posted about how unconcerned she is about getting sick, but a quarantine has a pretty serious affect on everyone’s lives.  Schools would be closed now anyway, but if the quarantine lasts long, children will miss school.  Other types of medical emergencies are difficult to deal with in this situation.  Getting food might be complicated. So it probably makes sense for foreign governments to pull out their employees, or at least their families.

[Renai]

56 minutes ago, Amira said:

I assume it’s more about the the logistics regarding the quarantine. A friend of mine in Wuhan yesterday posted about how unconcerned she is about getting sick, but a quarantine has a pretty serious affect on everyone’s lives.  Schools would be closed now anyway, but if the quarantine lasts long, children will miss school.  Other types of medical emergencies are difficult to deal with in this situation.  Getting food might be complicated. So it probably makes sense for foreign governments to pull out their employees, or at least their families.

Yes, schools are closed now, but most were slated to reopen around the first week of February. I wonder if the delay (2 weeks) is because of the self-quarantine the government has imposed. If this is the case, school won't be open anyway so students won't miss (unless they get back home late). They'll probably tack those two weeks to the end of the school semester. I can't imagine missing even one day in a Chinese school...

[Lanny]

At this time, they are not sure if this Corona Virus is as dangerous as the regular flu in the USA, which kills tens of thousands of people each year.  It is being taken very seriously now, not just in China, but worldwide. The USA is sending a charter Boeing 767 with 230 seats (and some medical personnel) to evacuate Diplomats from Wuhan and any U.S. Citizens who can pay the high price for the flight to the USA. If there's more space available, foreigners will also be allowed to go on that charter flight.  The combination of things they had in that store was astonishing to me, but in the article I read that explained that, it also explained that once the meat is cooked, is is safe to eat.  

[Farrar]

A quarantine and major scare like this is bad enough... but imagine having it happen over Thanksgiving weekend. Because that's what it's like. Lots of people aren't home. Travel was in super high gear. I think it's worse than having it be over the US equivalent of winter break because people travel for Lunar New Year's more than Americans travel for Christmas. It's by far the highest volume travel time.

I also saw that the state department is evacuating all the consulate folks from Wuhan and any Americans who want to go can pay for a ticket, otherwise you're stranded. And you had to be registered already with the consulate, which... um... having lived abroad, a lot of people don't do.

I also can't get a full picture of how bad this is. I mean, if the numbers of infected and dead are correct, then holy crap. But if the numbers of infected are way low... then it might be bad, but not as 1919 as everyone is fearing.

[Renai]

40 minutes ago, kand said:

Are they going to quarantine the people they fly out of there? 
 

We had a local Lunar New Year celebration cancelled today out of an abundance of caution. 

The Lunar New Year celebration for tomorrow was cancelled here too. A lot of people said they just weren't going to go, so it was postponed.

[gardenmom5]

On 1/24/2020 at 12:01 PM, StellaM said:

I also really wish the media would stop with all the 'deadly virus' breathless reporting; it doesn't help.

Number of deaths compared to confirmed cases (as per WHO, and there will be many more  people who experience the coronavirus mildly, don't seek treatment and aren't counted in the numbers) is not particularly startling...and mostly so far in a populations you'd expect deaths due to pneumonia type illness.

Of course, that might change. But we can only worry about what we currently know. 

 

there is video of a Chinese nurse from Wuhan claiming the gov't is lying - and the number of cases is closer to 90K. (there have been other videos uploaded to webieo making similar claims - they're removed fairly quickly.)  china is a communist country - and they're known for clamping down on information.

Wuhan is but one city that has been shut down - 58M people are now under lockdown in their cities.  Wuhan only accounts for 11M. 

On 1/24/2020 at 2:22 PM, Arcadia said:

 

I think it’s because Asia Pacific region has experienced the SARS epidemic and has protocols in place for dealing with similar 

From SBS https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australian-experts-monitor-potential-spread-of-sars-like-virus-closely

“The mysterious bug has been identified as being a coronavirus - like those which can cause the common cold as well as more clinically serious conditions, such as SARS. 

SARS killed more than 700 people around the world during an outbreak that began in China in 2002. 

Dr Keith Chappell,  also from the University of Queensland, said the information available to Australian researchers did not suggest a SARS-like epidemic was imminent. 

"There's no evidence currently at all of human-to-human transmission. So there's no threat at all,” he said.

“What this highlights is two things: that these types of viruses can emerge, new viruses that we've never seen before. But also that you need to be wary of your interactions with wildlife. It's not known where this virus has come from, but there's speculation that it’s come from a bat because bats are known to carry the mostly closely-related viruses." 

The Department of Health has confirmed no cases of the disease have been reported in Australia, but it would follow the situation closely in collaboration with the states and territories.”

I've seen reports on my local news that there is evidence of third generation transmission.  US patient zero didn't go to the seafood markets where the claims are it initiated.  so - bs on no evidence of no human-to-human transmission.

On 1/24/2020 at 2:38 PM, Ausmumof3 said:

Is there still no evidence of human to human transmission?  I would have thought the number of infection would mean their must be but I guess that many people could be exposed or infected wildlife. 
 

I see China is building a new 1000 bed hospital in Wuhan province.

china is now building a second 1000 bed hospital in Wuhan  - with plans for it to be done by Feb 5.

[Renai]

59 minutes ago, gardenmom5 said:

there is video of a Chinese nurse from Wuhan claiming the gov't is lying - and the number of cases is closer to 90K. (there have been other videos uploaded to webieo making similar claims - they're removed fairly quickly.)  china is a communist country - and they're known for clamping down on information.

 

So much this. Some people don't realize how large their reach is. I've heard people say a government can't control everything, but if nothing, China comes pretty darn close. They have algorithms and bots that search key words and pictures, and some posts never even make it to a page - it's removed in the middle of cyberspace before it has the chance.

I've also seen one video of a couple of people who had collapsed in the streets and the ambulance workers were caring for them in hazmat suits. 

I can only understand written things, as it can be translated, I don't understand what's going on in the videos of people talking. Some comments under one video of a doctor speaking and crying was that they were running out of supplies, couldn't stop working to eat, were eating on the toilet because there was no time to take care of personal needs. (This is what I was posting about yesterday.)

I did receive a message on my WeChat through our local Chinese school (I live in NM, btw, so not close to the action except through Chinese social media) saying there was good news - the virus doesn't survive over a particular temp, and other information, but I hesitate to post it because the poster did not say where that information came from. China is known for propaganda, and I don't want to spread any.

[mommyoffive]

I can't imagine a hospital that they are building in days to be a safe place to be. 

Wow, the death toll is now 56 with over 2000 infected.  

[beaners]

18 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

I can't imagine a hospital that they are building in days to be a safe place to be. 

Wow, the death toll is now 56 with over 2000 infected.  

 

I might worry about materials offgassing, and I wouldn't want to be involved in the construction, but they are good at building big things quickly. I think this is going to be mostly prefab.

[BeachGal]

Yes, the hospitals will be prefab.

Here is a short article from Stat News that summarizes two recent Lancet papers analyzing the effects of the virus:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/24/coronavirus-infections-no-symptoms-lancet-studies/

[chiguirre]

1 hour ago, Plum said:

It’s hard to imagine how large a hospital with 1000 beds is. The largest hospital in my city has just under 800. Johns Hopkins has just over 1k beds. Cleveland Clinic is the 8th largest hospital in the US with 1400 beds.  The 11th largest hospital in the US has 1200 beds. 
https://largest.org/structures/hospitals-us/

That's true but Wuhan has more than 11 million people, that's NYC plus Houston. 1000 beds is a drop in the bucket for a city that size.

[Laura Corin]

16 hours ago, Amira said:

I assume it’s more about the the logistics regarding the quarantine. A friend of mine in Wuhan yesterday posted about how unconcerned she is about getting sick, but a quarantine has a pretty serious affect on everyone’s lives.  Schools would be closed now anyway, but if the quarantine lasts long, children will miss school.  Other types of medical emergencies are difficult to deal with in this situation.  Getting food might be complicated. So it probably makes sense for foreign governments to pull out their employees, or at least their families.

Yes. During SARS a lot of expatriates left Hong Kong early on. All non essential activities had ceased in the territory and there was not much point in staying. They often self quarantined thereafter.

[Carrie12345]

I’m having trouble processing one particular thing. Maybe someone who understands healthcare logistics better can help me out?

FTR, I’m trying to disregard extremes on both ends. I see all the “this is the big one”s and all of the “‘this is a hoax”es, but I’m mostly navigating straight to reported facts from reliable sources.

So... the current reports are that there are about 2,000 cases. China is saying they’re sending an additional 1230 medical experts, whatever that definition is. My layperson brain sees that and thinks... um, that’s... a lot. I mean, ratio-wise.  And thinking about that makes my brain want to go down all the extra scary paths.
(It doesn’t help that we just watched a video on how the world economy would have been impacted if Ebola had spread farther in Africa.)

I’m not opposed to thinking down the scary paths, I just don’t like to do it without valid reasons.  Is 1230 a logical response here?

[Pawz4me]

1 hour ago, Carrie12345 said:

I’m having trouble processing one particular thing. Maybe someone who understands healthcare logistics better can help me out?

FTR, I’m trying to disregard extremes on both ends. I see all the “this is the big one”s and all of the “‘this is a hoax”es, but I’m mostly navigating straight to reported facts from reliable sources.

So... the current reports are that there are about 2,000 cases. China is saying they’re sending an additional 1230 medical experts, whatever that definition is. My layperson brain sees that and thinks... um, that’s... a lot. I mean, ratio-wise.  And thinking about that makes my brain want to go down all the extra scary paths.
(It doesn’t help that we just watched a video on how the world economy would have been impacted if Ebola had spread farther in Africa.)

I’m not opposed to thinking down the scary paths, I just don’t like to do it without valid reasons.  Is 1230 a logical response here?

One possible explanation is that they're simply trying to be seen as very pro-active. They got a really terrible reputation for their handling of SARS, so . . they're trying to be seen as really on the ball for this. I'm in no way saying that's THE explanation. Just a possible one.

[Slache]

1 hour ago, Carrie12345 said:

I’m having trouble processing one particular thing. Maybe someone who understands healthcare logistics better can help me out?

FTR, I’m trying to disregard extremes on both ends. I see all the “this is the big one”s and all of the “‘this is a hoax”es, but I’m mostly navigating straight to reported facts from reliable sources.

So... the current reports are that there are about 2,000 cases. China is saying they’re sending an additional 1230 medical experts, whatever that definition is. My layperson brain sees that and thinks... um, that’s... a lot. I mean, ratio-wise.  And thinking about that makes my brain want to go down all the extra scary paths.
(It doesn’t help that we just watched a video on how the world economy would have been impacted if Ebola had spread farther in Africa.)

I’m not opposed to thinking down the scary paths, I just don’t like to do it without valid reasons.  Is 1230 a logical response here?

The number of cases will not represent the number of people in the hospital. They can say only come to the hospital under these circumstances, but that's not going to happen. With 2,000 cases of the virus, 7,000 cases of influenza, 16,000 cases of rhinovirus and Aunt Myrtle being a hypochondriac again 1,230 extra workers might not cut it.

[chiguirre]

3 hours ago, Carrie12345 said:

So... the current reports are that there are about 2,000 cases. China is saying they’re sending an additional 1230 medical experts, whatever that definition is. My layperson brain sees that and thinks... um, that’s... a lot. I mean, ratio-wise.  And thinking about that makes my brain want to go down all the extra scary paths.
(It doesn’t help that we just watched a video on how the world economy would have been impacted if Ebola had spread farther in Africa.)

I’m not opposed to thinking down the scary paths, I just don’t like to do it without valid reasons.  Is 1230 a logical response here?

The thing about epidemics is that they start small, explode up the S curve of new population growth and then die out. I think we're still in the initial slow growth stage. But, that doesn't mean it's a "We're all going to DIE" crisis either. The death rates aren't horrible, it's not the bubonic plague. Many more people are probably infected but haven't even been sick enough to go to the doctor, let alone the hospital. That's pretty normal for an influenza like respiratory virus. It's extremely bad luck that this emerged over the heaviest travel season and could spread even faster than normal because of that. There's the history of SARS and MERS and everyone is worried that someday there will be something that IS as deadly as the bubonic plague, so we tend to freak out.

[Farrar]

14 hours ago, kand said:

Are they going to quarantine the people they fly out of there? 
 

We had a local Lunar New Year celebration cancelled today out of an abundance of caution. 

At least for the US nationals leaving, the plane the government chartered had special accommodations and systems to deal with potential exposure. But obviously it's already spread out of Wuhan, especially within China.

You're in the US, right? It makes zero sense to me that a Lunar New Year's celebration need to be canceled here in the states at this point. I mean, yes, people travel back and forth, but there's no reason to worry here, at least not yet - though I assume hospitals and especially infectious disease docs are taking precautions.

Edited January 26, 2020 by Farrar

[Arcadia]

11 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

I can't imagine a hospital that they are building in days to be a safe place to be. 

Prefab is the norm and has been for years in densely populated areas in Asia. It gets buildings completed lots faster in tight land plots. 

5 hours ago, Carrie12345 said:

So... the current reports are that there are about 2,000 cases. China is saying they’re sending an additional 1230 medical experts, whatever that definition is.

I’m not opposed to thinking down the scary paths, I just don’t like to do it without valid reasons.  Is 1230 a logical response here?

1230 is a low number. The ratio of staff to patient they need is kind of like what was needed during the SARS epidemic, or in the ICU.  
 

From abc7news  https://abc7news.com/health/calif-woman-diagnosed-with-coronavirus;-3rd-case-in-us/5879796/

“CORONAVIRUS IN CA: The third U.S. case of coronavirus has been confirmed in Orange County, California, the OC Health Care Agency's Communicable Disease Control Division announced in a press release Sunday.”