How is food supply where you are?

[Ausmumof3]

The last couple of times I’ve shopped there’s even really empty shelves - low stocks of dairy, chicken etc being the most obvious. I’m trying to work out if it’s because I’m shopping at a different time (school holidays), something to do with the public holidays, supply shortages due to stuff further upstream in China (not sure how that works - maybe stuff needed for processing dairy), lack of staff for shelf packing and trucks. Or maybe just our road closures due to local flooding. 
 

Are things looking normal where you are or are there any things missing you’ve noticed.

[Melissa in Australia]

Things are looking normal here, but I haven't been in a shop for a week. 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Melissa in Australia

[Carrie12345]

I’m planning to pop my head I to Aldi’s today, but I haven’t been inside any normal grocery store in over 2 weeks. Just a trip to a closeout grocery.

I AM freaking about the price of eggs. A 60 pack at my Walmart is 36.8 cents/egg. A 30 pack at My Shoprite is 47 cents/egg. And we’re not allowed to have chickens on <2 acres. We have 1.27. 😛 

[Eos]

25 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

not allowed to have chickens

Hens?  Or just roosters?  

[Carrie12345]

16 minutes ago, Eos said:

Hens?  Or just roosters?  

Hens. Technically no roosters on >2 acres either, but I hear them from a distance, lol.

It’s major BS. Legitimate urban cities allow chickens, but here I am, in the middle of nowhere, and no chickies for me. 😔  

[Ausmumof3]

5 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

Hens. Technically no roosters on >2 acres either, but I hear them from a distance, lol.

It’s major BS. Legitimate urban cities allow chickens, but here I am, in the middle of nowhere, and no chickies for me. 😔  

What about quails or ducks? That is annoying although it seems like the price of chicken food is up too

[Carrie12345]

8 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

What about quails or ducks? That is annoying although it seems like the price of chicken food is up too

Nope.   
I’m not going to remember the specific verbiage, but it’s basically phrased as “traditional house pets only”.    
Now, I could go outside to shoot and dress a deer, bear, fox, coyote, squirrel, wild turkey, or a few other things (when in the legal seasons), but happy chickens in a pretty coop is just too uncultured for this township!

[HomeAgain]

I overheard our butcher department at the grocery store apologizing for the stock.  There's very little chicken available, and it's mostly rotisserie or thighs.  That's it.

We usually eat at least one chicken meal a week and right now this week's has been replaced with a chickpea curry..  I need to decide for next week.

There are other small things out - nothing notable, though.  Sausage, and I think a vegetable we were looking for, but nothing that made me question supply issues on a large scale.

[pinball]

51 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

Nope.   
I’m not going to remember the specific verbiage, but it’s basically phrased as “traditional house pets only”.    
Now, I could go outside to shoot and dress a deer, bear, fox, coyote, squirrel, wild turkey, or a few other things (when in the legal seasons), but happy chickens in a pretty coop is just too uncultured for this township!

You could lobby to get it changed.

do German Shepard bother birds? 

[pinball]

45 minutes ago, HomeAgain said:

I overheard our butcher department at the grocery store apologizing for the stock.  There's very little chicken available, and it's mostly rotisserie or thighs.  That's it.

We usually eat at least one chicken meal a week and right now this week's has been replaced with a chickpea curry..  I need to decide for next week.

There are other small things out - nothing notable, though.  Sausage, and I think a vegetable we were looking for, but nothing that made me question supply issues on a large scale.

Thighs are delicious and I think the most versatile chicken part.

why wouldn’t you use thighs in a curry?

🤷‍♀️

[HomeAgain]

3 minutes ago, pinball said:

Thighs are delicious and I think the most versatile chicken part.

why wouldn’t you use thighs in a curry?

🤷‍♀️

Because I'm not going to pay breast prices for sad, fatty thighs.  A box of chickpeas is about $1.50 and my family is just fine eating them.

Interesting to note - corndogs are now back in stock after 6 months of not being able to find them at the grocery stores.  I used to buy them as a once in a while treat.  I noticed back in July, I think, that they weren't in the store.  The case had been empty until this last trip.  I didn't end up getting any, but it's nice to know that they're around again.

[marbel]

Re; chicken breast vs thighs - around here, boneless thighs are more expensive than breast. I guess that means they are more in demand? Bone-in thighs are much cheaper. 

I always see some empty shelves when I'm out. It always varies though. Yesterday I was in a store and happened to walk by the toilet paper area - empty. I had a moment of panic even though we have plenty at home and I'm sure this was just a temporary store outage.  Sometimes one store will be out of eggs and another will have plenty. (The prices though!)

I can't have chicken either due to local ordinance, but I wonder how much savings there really is. I mean, the eggs are 'free' but the cost of getting the chickens, the coop, the feed...   Maybe I mean I wonder how long it takes to make up the cost of getting started. People joke about their $5 tomato from their new garden... I wonder the same about eggs. 

 

[pinball]

25 minutes ago, HomeAgain said:

Because I'm not going to pay breast prices for sad, fatty thighs.  A box of chickpeas is about $1.50 and my family is just fine eating them.

Interesting to note - corndogs are now back in stock after 6 months of not being able to find them at the grocery stores.  I used to buy them as a once in a while treat.  I noticed back in July, I think, that they weren't in the store.  The case had been empty until this last trip.  I didn't end up getting any, but it's nice to know that they're around again.

I don’t know… your first post read like the chickpeas were a reluctant choice but now this one reads like Yum Yum Chickpeas!

Edited to add: chickpeas don’t come in a box here…canned are ready to eat and dried are in bags like dried beans.

Edited January 6, 2023 by pinball

[Katy]

It seems like all fresh food is scarce here. My kids have another virus so it’s been a while since I watched the local news, but two week or three weeks ago they announced that several million more chickens were destroyed nearby due to bird flu. The price of chicken & eggs more than doubled & supply halved overnight. I’m in the Midwest USA. We do have produce being imported but most of it is also really expensive and much lower quality than typical, which makes me think it’s a transportation problem. Except blueberries, which have been really good and only 40% higher than last year. 

[Carrie12345]

1 hour ago, pinball said:

You could lobby to get it changed.

do German Shepard bother birds? 

I could, and I sort of low-key do, but the 4 people who make the decisions are obnoxious.

The ordinance was amended not long ago, with almost no improvement. They changed some verbiage and loosened the insane limit on number of fowl by probably size, but it’s close to the same.

I’ve found contradictions between two sections and attempted to argue them, but our twp manager stands firm. She has her eye on me, lol.

She’s also the witch who insisted I didn’t meet the requirements for rezoning my dream land, even though I could prove (after someone else purchased it) that I did. And I mean prove legally; she still insists it doesn’t meet the requirements.

 

[pinball]

17 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

I could, and I sort of low-key do, but the 4 people who make the decisions are obnoxious.

The ordinance was amended not long ago, with almost no improvement. They changed some verbiage and loosened the insane limit on number of fowl by probably size, but it’s close to the same.

I’ve found contradictions between two sections and attempted to argue them, but our twp manager stands firm. She has her eye on me, lol.

She’s also the witch who insisted I didn’t meet the requirements for rezoning my dream land, even though I could prove (after someone else purchased it) that I did. And I mean prove legally; she still insists it doesn’t meet the requirements.

 

That really stinks about the rezoning…

you need to watch her right back!

[Bambam]

The crackers are low here again (TX) - not just saltines, everything except Triscuits. I'm wondering if that is because all the other crackers were popular at NYE parties and the grocery stores still have recovered yet? 

In the produce, cranberries have been almost impossible to find all through December (I'm not looking now though) and black grapes - plenty of red and green seedless. 

We have plenty of eggs, Probably because it is a lot harder to pay $4+ for a dozen eggs. Store brand are $4.19/dozen while others are $6.99+. 

[Faith-manor]

The quality of fresh produce here is very iffy. I have one good source, and that is the Mennonite bulk food supermarket. There are several local producers with greenhouses contracted to provide for them during the winter. The lettuce/salad greens are still not plentiful, but the carrots, celery, Brussels sprouts, broccoli, peppers, cucumbers, green onions (though I am currently growing my own indoors), fresh herbs, radishes, and berries are all really nice and affordable. It is the only place I buy produce now. I can't say about the quality of their tomatoes because we are using my dehydrated cherry tomatoes on our salads and tacos. Michigan apples are still being sold by the half peck and peck. It must have been a great year for apples because the supply is plentiful. I bought another half peck to run through the dehydrator since our sons drained me of apple chips and Mark was feeling sad. He loves them. 

I have seen two supermarkets actually out of common, frozen vegetables, and I suspect that this is because their own produce section is low stock and in poor condition so more people are buying frozen instead, or are trimming their food budgets to not include so much fresh.

Chicken is hit and miss. Eggs are low supply and very expensive. I am also struggling to find cod loins and perch. We are trying to eat more seafood, and I have to say, the warming oceans and lakes is wrecking havoc on seafood supply.

Another oddity, but off topic of food, is that Mark can no longer get 1/4" ply in cherry or maple for his woodworking. He can get oak and birch, but every single supplier is trying to sell warped, damaged ply (and he has to have nice stuff for the cabinetry work he is doing) at all time high prices. I don't know if this is because of the wildfires and harvesting is down, a delivery/shipping issue, or what. I should do some research on that.

I have been reading about how food consumption will be forced to change significantly due to climate change, warming oceans, droughts. The bulk of diets will eventually have to be grains and legumes because they are low water consumers, and not grains like oats and wheat, but quinoa, and corn, and legumes that are low consumers like lima beans and chick peas. All the other legumes are big water thirsty crops. The only vegetables that are drought resistant and reasonable water consumers are radishes, okra, and mustard greens. Unless production is shifted from row crops outside, to greenhouses indoors using new technology that conserves huge amounts of water, our children and their children are going to see lean food times in their lives. The top five crops that should not be grown are almonds in California, strawberries and avocados (often from Arizona and why in the heck are we draining Lake Mead and the Colorado river to irrigate a DESERT to grow them?????), sugarcane from anywhere in the world, and bananas from anywhere. I was shocked to find out how much water sugarcane consumes. I wonder what the health of future generations will look like with such limited diets. We talk a lot on here about the American diet and all the things wrong with it, but an entire world on such limits is an epic disaster.

Tomatoes may get scarce, in all likelihood, next summer and fall. It is a water thirsty plant, and farmers in California have announced they are reducing their tomato crops by 25-75% depending on the farmer with some also growing zero for 2023.

Another pivot was to convert from citrus groves to vineyards because grapes require 25-30% less water.

I think eating habits will have to shift. I do have hope that California will continue to get more rain and snow. I know it is hard because soil erosion due to wildfires means they deal with flooding and mudslides, but they need it so badly, and the nation is rather dependent on California and even Oregon for vegetable and fruit production. The snow pack is at about 174% which sounds great, but in the past decade they have often been at that point by the beginning of January only to get nothing from Jan - March, and then end up in drought conditions again. They need precipitation to continue for the next three months in order to get enough to fill aquifers and resevoirs. 

Carrie, have you done any research into agriculture laws in your state? Michigan, as it turns out, has something baked into our constitution about not prohibiting private citizens from raising food on their property. Several years ago there was a guy who wanted back yard chickens and edible landscaping at his house in the burbs of, if memory serves, Northern Detroit, and the HOA went bananas about it so he consulted an attorney with experience within the farming community. He successfully sued his HOA and won under this law. I can't remember what the actual statute says. Anyway, he has backyard chickens and landscaping. He agreed to no roosters, and zoning was allowed to limit the number of birds according to the square footage of the property for the well being of the birds and because of health code laws about management of manure. I think he ended up with four hens. Our township can only limit roosters within town limits under noise ordinances (which is just hilarious because there are neighbors here who run power tools at 6 am in the summer 🙄), and for the sake of larger critters, establish a minimum land/grazing requirement. So we don't have any sheep or goats in town now, no horses or cows. But just outside of town, right on the very edge of the town limit, there is a guy with a milk cow and mini donkey. So that means he is always also growing out a steer or heifer, and for some folks it is a real source of angst because they don't like it so close to town. My concern is he keeps them on five acres, and the paddock is small so they eat mostly hay. I feel that not having proper spring/summer/fall grazing is not healthy for his animals. But I guess legally it is okay.

[MEmama]

Based on a single trip a few days ago to one local grocery store, it appears the egg shortage might have hit here now. Because of the conversations here, I panicked last week and bought an extra dozen, refusing to internalize the $6.50 price tag.
 

My family hasn’t yet figured out that every time they laugh at my panic buying they quickly become grateful for it; on my last trip there were 4 cartons of eggs in the entire display. 😳

[Carrie12345]

9 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

Carrie, have you done any research into agriculture laws in your state? Michigan, as it turns out, has something baked into our constitution about not prohibiting private citizens from raising food on their property.

The state law applies to property over 10 acres or smaller properties that anticipate at least $10,000 in revenue.

I am NOT above loaning friends cash to purchase overpriced shares in my bounty 😉, but the parameters make it nearly impossible to then sway my private development.

We do have a friend who is running for one of those decision maker positions this year. His wife likes ducks, so I’ll be stumping hard for him!  And another position should open up in the relatively near future, given the health of the elected official in it now. 😛 So we might get there eventually!

[Indigo Blue]

Went out two days ago. Walmart seemed slightly low stock. Whole Foods seemed more so. Eggs short in both places. Paid over six dollars for one dozen organic. 
 

No fresh kale at Walmart. No carrots. 
Whole Foods had chunks of bare shelf. Had to order a few things from Everything Now in bulk. 

[Indigo Blue]

WF no longer has organic shelled edamame. A lot of organic food seems to be getting low.

[Pawz4me]

57 minutes ago, Bambam said:

The crackers are low here again (TX) - not just saltines, everything except Triscuits. I'm wondering if that is because all the other crackers were popular at NYE parties and the grocery stores still have recovered yet? 

Same here. Wheat Thins are DH's favorite snack, and I haven't been able to find them for at least a couple of weeks. I too thought it could be due to NYE parties and needing to catch back up.

Other things aren't too bad here. Eggs are running around $5.00 dozen for store brand regular eggs, a little more than that for cage free, but there's an adequate supply of all of them. We don't use regular milk, but I've noticed that it seems to be in short(ish) supply. This morning at WM all they had was  Fairlife and their store brand of lactose free milk. Not a single gallon or half gallon of regular milk. Chicken is available but what's available seems to vary from trip to trip. Sometimes it's just thighs and drumsticks and other times there's a good choice of breasts and tenderloins, too.

[Faith-manor]

18 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

The state law applies to property over 10 acres or smaller properties that anticipate at least $10,000 in revenue.

I am NOT above loaning friends cash to purchase overpriced shares in my bounty 😉, but the parameters make it nearly impossible to then sway my private development.

We do have a friend who is running for one of those decision maker positions this year. His wife likes ducks, so I’ll be stumping hard for him!  And another position should open up in the relatively near future, given the health of the elected official in it now. 😛 So we might get there eventually!

Duck eggs make for some pretty great baking results!

I love ducks. Our kids and bantam, Call and Australian Calls. Beautiful, just gorgeous ducks. I loved their low voice quacking, and they were very tame and would follow our sons around when they were out of their duck tractors. We had an index pool for them, and nearly every day in the summers, they were allowed out to swim. Happy ducks. The eggs were great. But as the boys got older and honed in on rocketry, metal working, and ecology, they worked less and less with the ducks so eventually they were gifted to another 4H family.

 

[prairiewindmomma]

Avian flu hit nearby egg producers. Some stores have no eggs at all, others have very limited supply. Some dairy products are hard to get right now—lactose free milk and cream were out this week. Fresh produce is about double the usual price—salad greens, red peppers, mushrooms, and potatoes are almost always out or in low supply. We usual get more stuff from California this time of year, this year it’s all being flown in from Chile and Mexico. The canned tomato products aisle keeps shrinking. Other than that, things feel better than normal. There is plenty of meat products for once and there aren’t huge gaps in the aisles.

[Serenade]

2 hours ago, marbel said:

Re; chicken breast vs thighs - around here, boneless thighs are more expensive than breast. I guess that means they are more in demand? Bone-in thighs are much cheaper. 

I've also noticed that skinless boneless thighs are now more expensive than breasts.  This week Food Lion has both skinless boneless breasts and thighs on sale, and the thighs are 50 cents more a pound.

[Faith-manor]

2 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Avian flu hit nearby egg producers. Some stores have no eggs at all, others have very limited supply. Some dairy products are hard to get right now—lactose free milk and cream were out this week. Fresh produce is about double the usual price—salad greens, red peppers, mushrooms, and potatoes are almost always out or in low supply. We usual get more stuff from California this time of year, this year it’s all being flown in from Chile and Mexico. The canned tomato products aisle keeps shrinking. Other than that, things feel better than normal. There is plenty of meat products for once and there aren’t huge gaps in the aisles.

I expect the canned tomato product issue to become even more pronounced in the next six months with so many farmers in California reducing or eliminating tomato crops.

[Serenade]

One thing that is really hard to find around here is half & half.  Now we just buy it when we see it. 

I'm noticing lots of empty shelves at the stores, but more with processed foods than fresh foods (other than the aforementioned half and half).  My Food Lion was just about cleared out of frozen raw fish a few days ago.

I'm heading to a Harris Teeter in Chapel Hill today because I'm having lunch with my mom, so I'll see if things are better over there.  I live in a small town with limited grocery options (Food Lion and Walmart).  We're supposed to get an Aldi, but I'll believe it when I see it.  We really need one, too because the Food Lions are so poorly managed. Plus Walmart and Food Lion need some competition! Milk costs at least $1 more a gallon (3.69)  in my small town than it does in generally pricey Chapel Hill.

Edited January 6, 2023 by Serenade

[Serenade]

8 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

I expect the canned tomato product issue to become even more pronounced in the next six months with so many farmers in California reducing or eliminating tomato crops.

Why are they eliminating tomato crops?  I'm glad that's one thing that grows well for me here!  But it will still be at least 5 months before I harvest another tomato!

[prairiewindmomma]

10 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

I expect the canned tomato product issue to become even more pronounced in the next six months with so many farmers in California reducing or eliminating tomato crops.

I agree. I am watching all of the water allocation announcements…not just in California, but in all of the west. Ogallala aquifer, the Colorado River, the Shasta River—-we are hitting a lot of the consequences of over drafting our water supplies all at once. I am also watching the fertilizer supplies, the projected future numbers of crop cycles with re: to soil fertility, the fusarium head blight in Europe’s wheat crops right now, the blight with potatoes here, and a few other things and…I do not feel reassured. The volatility in the weather with the growing irregularity in rainfall amounts and the swinging temperatures don’t make for easy growing conditions. 
 

We are just really beginning to reckon with how climate change is affecting our food growing abilities, I think. Before, we could just irrigate or fertilize our way out of problems.

[Brittany1116]

I haven't noticed anything to be missing completely or freakishly high prices like the jumps in spring/summer 2021 that later settled. However, I have noticed the dollar stores and Walmart are continually looking absolutely ransacked. More people shopping discount stores I suppose.

[Faith-manor]

25 minutes ago, Serenade said:

Why are they eliminating tomato crops?  I'm glad that's one thing that grows well for me here!  But it will still be at least 5 months before I harvest another tomato!

Water. California is the big producer for year round tomatoes. We have seasonal tomatoes readily available in the Great Lakes region, but not from late October -June except for the greenhouse grown ones. California is in a decade long drought, and water rationing for irrigation is getting worse and worse. Tomatoes, like most vegetables, are very water thirsty crops, and few drought resistant varieties exist that are also sauce or paste tomatoes. Many farmers simply cannot irrigate enough to make tomatoes even remotely profitable for what they get paid for them. They also have to look at the future of water supply in California given that the Colorado River is in catastrophic water crisis, and every drop of water is becoming more and more valuable. Converting to planting low water consuming crops makes sense for them.

This will get worse before it gets better unless this nation decides to play hardball on climate change. It means mass conversion away from lawns and to edible landscaping, high nitrogen producing, carbon sequestering yards, conserving water for agriculture, eliminating insane practices like farming the desert with avocados and strawberries, convert irrigation to drip and water wicking systems, reduce the consumption of beef and dairy - cows require a LOT of water plus the irrigation of fields for their food - reduce water use for manufacturing, and about 100 other things.

The environment will force these changes. People will simply adjust their diets to what is available and affordable.

I am increasing the number of raised beds here, and will be trying a water wicking system this year. I am in the Great Lakes region, and on a deep well. So I personally do not have water issues. But, I am fascinates by the science behind water conservation and new ways of irrigation. If it works, I will be able to be gone a week at a time, and my vegetables will have all the moisture they need on a 50-80% reduction in water used, and no one will need to babysit it while I am camping, sailing, and kayaking which I find appealing and convenient.

[Arcadia]

1 hour ago, prairiewindmomma said:

. We usual get more stuff from California this time of year, this year it’s all being flown in from Chile and Mexico. The canned tomato products aisle keeps shrinking.

We are seeing surpluses here though we mainly shop at Safeway, Grocery Outlet and get our fresh produce mostly at asian supermarkets because its cheaper there. No shortage of potatoes or mushrooms. Some of the mushrooms are locally grown while most are imported.
Trucking issues?
 

1 hour ago, Faith-manor said:

I expect the canned tomato product issue to become even more pronounced in the next six months with so many farmers in California reducing or eliminating tomato crops.

There is plenty of canned tomato products by Muir Glen at Grocery Outlet stores here as well as other local supermarkets. Hunt’s is another brand that there is plenty of stock on shelves. I tried to grow tomatoes but they consistently get attacked by aphids. 

[Ali in OR]

Our stores are fully stocked except for eggs. I did a Costco run and a Winco run this week--no problem finding chicken, but the only eggs in Winco were medium sized, and they didn't come close to filling the space they allot for eggs. I didn't need any so I didn't buy and didn't check the price. I do notice that apples never came down in price--they are still the high summer (end of season, waiting for new crop) price (for me this is $1.68 per pound for fuji apples instead of closer to $1 per pound).

[Jean in Newcastle]

No gaps in food supply here. As I said on the other thread I can get free range hormone free eggs for $2.19 a dozen. Plenty of produce. Plenty of canned and frozen choices. Plenty of chicken and other meat. Prices can vary from time to time. And last time I was at the store they were out of rolled oats but I bet the new supply just hadn’t arrived yet. Ie. Small outages of things on the shelf have happened for years. If I ask a store employee they can always tell me the day that XYZ is delivered. Obviously I don’t know if this will always be so but so far, so good. 

[Faith-manor]

21 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

We are seeing surpluses here though we mainly shop at Safeway, Grocery Outlet and get our fresh produce mostly at asian supermarkets because its cheaper there. No shortage of potatoes or mushrooms. Some of the mushrooms are locally grown while most are imported.
Trucking issues?
 

There is plenty of canned tomato products by Muir Glen at Grocery Outlet stores here as well as other local supermarkets. Hunt’s is another brand that there is plenty of stock on shelves. I tried to grow tomatoes but they consistently get attacked by aphids. 

I was going off of three agricultural articles on the summer subject. One was a couple of months ago on CNN, but the other two were from the USDA, and our extension office -  very knowledgeable sources. I think of course the usual distribution and shipping issues also come into play.

[Arcadia]

6 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

I was going off of three agricultural articles on the summer subject. One was a couple of months ago on CNN, but the other two were from the USDA, and our extension office -  very knowledgeable sources. I think of course the usual distribution and shipping issues also come into play.

I won’t be surprised if farmers switched to crops that requires less water than tomatoes given how water rationing for agricultural purposes is always a hot button issue in California. Apparently onions and garlic are crops that are water dependent. Price hikes are coming too

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/californias-drought-withers-tomatoes-pushing-grocery-prices-higher-2022-10-10/

”"What you're seeing harvested this summer, that really hasn't even hit the grocery shelf, is a 25% increase in the cost of the product to the processors – the canners, the buyers downstream," he said. "The onions and garlic have already been negotiated for 2023, with another 25% increase in price."

Cameron said tomato prices face a similar hike, resulting in a 50% increase in cost to canners and processors from 2021 to 2023.”

[Faith-manor]

21 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

I won’t be surprised if farmers switched to crops that requires less water than tomatoes given how water rationing for agricultural purposes is always a hot button issue in California. Apparently onions and garlic are crops that are water dependent. Price hikes are coming too

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/californias-drought-withers-tomatoes-pushing-grocery-prices-higher-2022-10-10/

”"What you're seeing harvested this summer, that really hasn't even hit the grocery shelf, is a 25% increase in the cost of the product to the processors – the canners, the buyers downstream," he said. "The onions and garlic have already been negotiated for 2023, with another 25% increase in price."

Cameron said tomato prices face a similar hike, resulting in a 50% increase in cost to canners and processors from 2021 to 2023.”

Yes, I think people assume that all of the inflation issues have been related to shipping or higher wages. However, there are other more pressing issues causing this. I am so worried about Lake Mead and the Colorado River this year. Frankly, also worried about the Platte Nebraska/Colorado. I don't know how much longer super thirsty crops and cows can be raised. A lactating dairy cow needs 30 gallons of water per day and would drink upwards of 50 if provided. One cow. Dairy farmers are struggling here, big time, and Lake Michigan and Lake Huron lost 7 trillion gallons this past year, and lake levels are down 9 inches. Lake Superior gained, but the answer is not to have a bunch of massive dairy herds in the U.P. because there isn't much for good grazing so hay would have to be imported. Plus, the U.P. is an ecological heaven that needs to be left alone. Dairy and beef cattle farms would upend its environment in a devastating way.

And still, even with the water loss, Michigan is not in bad shape, water wise. But, of course, if we don't buckle down and tackle some issues, it won't stay that way for long. 22% of the world's potable water must be treated with the utmost respect...staring directly at Tyco in Green Bay for its current 2.5 mile wide sledge of PFA's it released into Lake Michigan. 😠😠😠

[Melissa in Australia]

4 hours ago, Faith-manor said:

The quality of fresh produce here is very iffy. I have one good source, and that is the Mennonite bulk food supermarket. There are several local producers with greenhouses contracted to provide for them during the winter. The lettuce/salad greens are still not plentiful, but the carrots, celery, Brussels sprouts, broccoli, peppers, cucumbers, green onions (though I am currently growing my own indoors), fresh herbs, radishes, and berries are all really nice and affordable. It is the only place I buy produce now. I can't say about the quality of their tomatoes because we are using my dehydrated cherry tomatoes on our salads and tacos. Michigan apples are still being sold by the half peck and peck. It must have been a great year for apples because the supply is plentiful. I bought another half peck to run through the dehydrator since our sons drained me of apple chips and Mark was feeling sad. He loves them. 

I have seen two supermarkets actually out of common, frozen vegetables, and I suspect that this is because their own produce section is low stock and in poor condition so more people are buying frozen instead, or are trimming their food budgets to not include so much fresh.

Chicken is hit and miss. Eggs are low supply and very expensive. I am also struggling to find cod loins and perch. We are trying to eat more seafood, and I have to say, the warming oceans and lakes is wrecking havoc on seafood supply.

Another oddity, but off topic of food, is that Mark can no longer get 1/4" ply in cherry or maple for his woodworking. He can get oak and birch, but every single supplier is trying to sell warped, damaged ply (and he has to have nice stuff for the cabinetry work he is doing) at all time high prices. I don't know if this is because of the wildfires and harvesting is down, a delivery/shipping issue, or what. I should do some research on that.

I have been reading about how food consumption will be forced to change significantly due to climate change, warming oceans, droughts. The bulk of diets will eventually have to be grains and legumes because they are low water consumers, and not grains like oats and wheat, but quinoa, and corn, and legumes that are low consumers like lima beans and chick peas. All the other legumes are big water thirsty crops. The only vegetables that are drought resistant and reasonable water consumers are radishes, okra, and mustard greens. Unless production is shifted from row crops outside, to greenhouses indoors using new technology that conserves huge amounts of water, our children and their children are going to see lean food times in their lives. The top five crops that should not be grown are almonds in California, strawberries and avocados (often from Arizona and why in the heck are we draining Lake Mead and the Colorado river to irrigate a DESERT to grow them?????), sugarcane from anywhere in the world, and bananas from anywhere. I was shocked to find out how much water sugarcane consumes. I wonder what the health of future generations will look like with such limited diets. We talk a lot on here about the American diet and all the things wrong with it, but an entire world on such limits is an epic disaster.

Tomatoes may get scarce, in all likelihood, next summer and fall. It is a water thirsty plant, and farmers in California have announced they are reducing their tomato crops by 25-75% depending on the farmer with some also growing zero for 2023.

Another pivot was to convert from citrus groves to vineyards because grapes require 25-30% less water.

I think eating habits will have to shift. I do have hope that California will continue to get more rain and snow. I know it is hard because soil erosion due to wildfires means they deal with flooding and mudslides, but they need it so badly, and the nation is rather dependent on California and even Oregon for vegetable and fruit production. The snow pack is at about 174% which sounds great, but in the past decade they have often been at that point by the beginning of January only to get nothing from Jan - March, and then end up in drought conditions again. They need precipitation to continue for the next three months in order to get enough to fill aquifers and resevoirs. 

Carrie, have you done any research into agriculture laws in your state? Michigan, as it turns out, has something baked into our constitution about not prohibiting private citizens from raising food on their property. Several years ago there was a guy who wanted back yard chickens and edible landscaping at his house in the burbs of, if memory serves, Northern Detroit, and the HOA went bananas about it so he consulted an attorney with experience within the farming community. He successfully sued his HOA and won under this law. I can't remember what the actual statute says. Anyway, he has backyard chickens and landscaping. He agreed to no roosters, and zoning was allowed to limit the number of birds according to the square footage of the property for the well being of the birds and because of health code laws about management of manure. I think he ended up with four hens. Our township can only limit roosters within town limits under noise ordinances (which is just hilarious because there are neighbors here who run power tools at 6 am in the summer 🙄

I am not sure about that growing info. Here in Australia wheat is grown on a grand scale in semi arid areas. Thousands and thousands of acres. It is not irrigated at all. Corn on the other hand needs to be either irrigated or grown in a higher rainfall area. 

[QueenCat]

I haven't seen anything completely out of stock here. Eggs are low, but there's still enough. Oh, wait, Reduced Fat Cheez-Its were out at both

Walmart & Kroger this week. That's my "treat" and they've been out often over the past few months. You can get all of the other kinds of Cheez-Its though.

Southwest Ohio region.

[Carrie12345]

Aldi had some gaps here and there, but nothing that seemed extraordinary for the 2020s.

[Faith-manor]

1 hour ago, Melissa in Australia said:

I am not sure about that growing info. Here in Australia wheat is grown on a grand scale in semi arid areas. Thousands and thousands of acres. It is not irrigated at all. Corn on the other hand needs to be either irrigated or grown in a higher rainfall area. 

Probably not for Australia. I am looking at data for the U.S. and for the varieties grown. Here in Michigan, there is a LOT of irrigation for corn in particular. Winter wheat tends to be just fine. Again, I have been looking at agricultural articles and alerts from extension offices (these would be satellite offices of our big AG universities), USDA, and farm journals. None of them cover anything for other countries though they do note some worldwide crises, though not a lot.

[kbutton]

7 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

I agree. I am watching all of the water allocation announcements…not just in California, but in all of the west. Ogallala aquifer, the Colorado River, the Shasta River—-we are hitting a lot of the consequences of over drafting our water supplies all at once. I am also watching the fertilizer supplies, the projected future numbers of crop cycles with re: to soil fertility, the fusarium head blight in Europe’s wheat crops right now, the blight with potatoes here, and a few other things and…I do not feel reassured. The volatility in the weather with the growing irregularity in rainfall amounts and the swinging temperatures don’t make for easy growing conditions. 
 

We are just really beginning to reckon with how climate change is affecting our food growing abilities, I think. Before, we could just irrigate or fertilize our way out of problems.

We also don't have a lot of varieties with things like potatoes compared to say, how many varieties are grown by indigenous cultures in South America. The genetic tree for a lot of our food goes straight up and down, from what I understand. If it's not good for people and animals, it probably isn't great for plants either!

Frozen potato products are iffy here and have been on and off for the whole pandemic. Cauliflower bounces around--you can get riced but not bagged and frozen, or you can get fresh, but not whatever variety...it just keeps shifting, and right now fresh is slim pickings and/or very pricey. 

Also southwest Ohio.

Sometimes just going to a different store changes things though. 

[chocolate-chip chooky]

10 hours ago, marbel said:

Re; chicken breast vs thighs - around here, boneless thighs are more expensive than breast. I guess that means they are more in demand? Bone-in thighs are much cheaper. 

I always see some empty shelves when I'm out. It always varies though. Yesterday I was in a store and happened to walk by the toilet paper area - empty. I had a moment of panic even though we have plenty at home and I'm sure this was just a temporary store outage.  Sometimes one store will be out of eggs and another will have plenty. (The prices though!)

I can't have chicken either due to local ordinance, but I wonder how much savings there really is. I mean, the eggs are 'free' but the cost of getting the chickens, the coop, the feed...   Maybe I mean I wonder how long it takes to make up the cost of getting started. People joke about their $5 tomato from their new garden... I wonder the same about eggs. 

 

We have 6 chickens, and we spend about $30AU a week on feed for them.

My parents have 5 chickens, and their cost is just about the same.

It would be significantly less if wild birds didn't have access to the feed as well, but creating an area that addresses that will also add to the overall set-up cost.

Owning chickens definitely doesn't equate to free eggs.

[ScoutTN]

I have not been in a store since before Christmas, due to illness, but all of my pick-up order items were in stock. Egg and chx prices are high, but I usually buy those from local farmers, not the grocery. Their prices are high too, but the nutritional quality and taste are better. Plus, supporting small, beyond organic family farms is important to us. No supply issue, other than normal lower egg supply in the winter. Cream from our local grass-fed dairy farm is in low supply at Christmas bc they use it to make eggnog.

Generally we have had occasional low or empty shelf days when weather in the midwest or plains states is bad and a truck or two didn’t get through on time. Store staff are usually quick to let us know this at my usual groceries.

Edited January 6, 2023 by ScoutTN

[elegantlion]

We shop at Aldi. Their stock in our area is better than it was late last fall. They are still running lower stock on chicken. We don't buy eggs on a regular basis, so I don't know their cost. They actually had a good supply of produce last week. The last few times we've been in that has been lower, but maybe more due to the fact we shopped on a different day than normal. 

[Carrie12345]

6 minutes ago, elegantlion said:

We shop at Aldi. Their stock in our area is better than it was late last fall. They are still running lower stock on chicken. We don't buy eggs on a regular basis, so I don't know their cost. They actually had a good supply of produce last week. The last few times we've been in that has been lower, but maybe more due to the fact we shopped on a different day than normal. 

Just under $4/dozen at my location today.

[Melissa in Australia]

2 hours ago, chocolate-chip chooky said:

We have 6 chickens, and we spend about $30AU a week on feed for them.

My parents have 5 chickens, and their cost is just about the same.

It would be significantly less if wild birds didn't have access to the feed as well, but creating an area that addresses that will also add to the overall set-up cost.

Owning chickens definitely doesn't equate to free eggs.

Interesting comparison. We currently go though bag of food about  every 2 weeks, it is $27a bag. We have just over 20 chooks some if them Retired silkies that no longer lay. We get between 10-14 eggs a day

[prairiewindmomma]

I checked the poultry feed recently at the farm store. Most of it was about $1/lb. If you feed the recommended 1/4lb of feed a day per hen, and no more, then you are at $1.50/day for 6 laying hens. This time of year, production is low because we get too little daylight (even if you hang lights). If you average that with peak summer laying, it would, over the course of a year, roughly work out to a dozen eggs a week for $10.50/week (assuming no other costs like fencing, acquiring the hens, coop costs, litter, heat lamps, etc. $10.50/dozen eggs is a hard price (and it explains why farm fresh eggs are well over $12/dozen now).

Three years ago, feed was about 1/3-1/2 the cost.

[KungFuPanda]

Usually I don’t see bare shelves where I am but I bought some egg$ today. Egglands Best, at 6 something for 18 was cheaper than the giant store brand that was over $7!