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gardenmom5

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I've seen posts about the UK variant, but has there been any mention of the South Africa variant?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1374779/covid-strain-latest-new-coronavirus-variant-south-africa-young-adults

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Named as 501.V2, the strain was detected in the country and contains a higher viral load and also, perhaps more worryingly, seems to impact young people more seriously.  Such is the speed of transmission, South African scientists have stated it may be responsible for the country's second wave. [...]

Although the two strains [UK and SA] share the same mutations, they are not thought to be linked.

 

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1 hour ago, kbutton said:

 

I agree about the bridge building, but locally to me, the folks who are all for herd immunity and conspiracy theories don’t acknowledge that we haven’t ever had herd immunity to anything without a vaccine. Most are also against this vaccine or don’t understand that even with a vaccine, we won’t be able to roll back pandemic guidelines instantaneously. 

I am not sure how to build a bridge to that. 

I think there are two possible avenues, although of course no guarantee of success. One is for everyone to try to connect with these people through shared values. Another is to call and call out any of their elected officials who do believe in and/or have been a source of disinformation, propaganda, or conspiracy theories, especially if they voted for them. They need to know they will be held accountable for engaging in this dangerous behavior, regardless of the subject matter.

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Wow, Sweden's story is quite shocking. Not only did they pursue 'herd immunity' against the research, but doctors refused to treat elderly patients, leading to high deaths. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/20/as-covid-death-toll-soars-ever-higher-sweden-wonders-who-to-blame

I wonder who started them on this path, so different from their neighbours? Norway/Denmark/Finland are in a far better place. 

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2 hours ago, kbutton said:

 

I agree about the bridge building, but locally to me, the folks who are all for herd immunity and conspiracy theories don’t acknowledge that we haven’t ever had herd immunity to anything without a vaccine. Most are also against this vaccine or don’t understand that even with a vaccine, we won’t be able to roll back pandemic guidelines instantaneously. 

I am not sure how to build a bridge to that. 

I don't think it's so hard to build a bridge to that. So there are things that I can do as an individual and things our government agencies can do(but I'm not seeing it). I think it is probably a much worse problem that I realized. I do live in a bubble of highly educated people, and my friends that don't fall into the highly educated category haven't been party to spreading misinformation either. It was only acquaintances on social media. 

I don't have cable TV, so I may be missing something. I do subscribe to several magazines with ads and I watch some occasional Hulu also ads. I think the CDC should be doing more on this front--gaining the public's trust and combatting misinformation. I have looked at all of the CDC's current public service announcements, and none of them address issues of mistrust, misinformation, etc. Since this is apparently a huge problem, I can't imagine why this wouldn't be addressed with a task force dedicated to this specifically. It's a complex issue though and PSAs aren't going to be enough. 

I looked at the Ad Council's "social listening findings" and that was a joke.

I think the private sector scientific community needs to be more involved. I'm not sure what that would look like, but it is happening. It just needs to be more. Here is an article about that.

" Zagni says that avoiding appearing confrontational or patronizing is key when seeking to change minds. “Try to have an honest discussion with people about why they chose to share material, but don’t talk down to people or treat them as stupid. Most people are engaged in the same search for truth.”

A good collective effort would look like: Listen, ask good questions, listen more, respect personal beliefs, respect the person, educate.

 

I think local health departments are in an ideal position to build bridges within the community, but they are constrained by funding and staffing, and sadly in many cases, competency. My own county health dept has done nothing regarding the pandemic, but my neighboring county has a county health officer who has been very visible in the media since the pandemic began. Still, I haven't seen any efforts to battle misinformation. 

It can't just be left up to social media companies.

 

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2 hours ago, popmom said:

I don't think it's so hard to build a bridge to that. So there are things that I can do as an individual and things our government agencies can do(but I'm not seeing it). I think it is probably a much worse problem that I realized. I do live in a bubble of highly educated people, and my friends that don't fall into the highly educated category haven't been party to spreading misinformation either. It was only acquaintances on social media. 

I don't have cable TV, so I may be missing something. I do subscribe to several magazines with ads and I watch some occasional Hulu also ads. I think the CDC should be doing more on this front--gaining the public's trust and combatting misinformation. I have looked at all of the CDC's current public service announcements, and none of them address issues of mistrust, misinformation, etc. Since this is apparently a huge problem, I can't imagine why this wouldn't be addressed with a task force dedicated to this specifically. It's a complex issue though and PSAs aren't going to be enough. 

I looked at the Ad Council's "social listening findings" and that was a joke.

I think the private sector scientific community needs to be more involved. I'm not sure what that would look like, but it is happening. It just needs to be more. Here is an article about that.

" Zagni says that avoiding appearing confrontational or patronizing is key when seeking to change minds. “Try to have an honest discussion with people about why they chose to share material, but don’t talk down to people or treat them as stupid. Most people are engaged in the same search for truth.”

A good collective effort would look like: Listen, ask good questions, listen more, respect personal beliefs, respect the person, educate.

 

I think local health departments are in an ideal position to build bridges within the community, but they are constrained by funding and staffing, and sadly in many cases, competency. My own county health dept has done nothing regarding the pandemic, but my neighboring county has a county health officer who has been very visible in the media since the pandemic began. Still, I haven't seen any efforts to battle misinformation. 

It can't just be left up to social media companies.

 

The people I know do not trust the CDC or any other government health department. They are supposedly lying and manipulating the numbers, etc. They are immune to new ideas because they are taught that other people are just brainwashed and listen to the evil government and will try to convince you but you must not give in and be persuaded. It reminds me of when I talked a lot with someone in a cult. They are taught not to trust the other side, so it is impossible to really talk with them.

 

Now please don't think I mean everyone who is less conservative with regards to the virus. Certainly, there are rational intelligent people who recognize the costs of shutting down schools or harming small businesses etc that have an argument concerning the recent trade offs of policies and how necessary they are.

 

When I say the people I know sound like cult members, I mean the anti mask, Bill Gates wants to sterilize people with a vaccine and therefore helped create Covid crowd. 

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https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/mutant-coronavirus-united-kingdom-sets-alarms-its-importance-remains-unclear
 

Sciencey article on the new strain

“One reason to be concerned, Rambaut says, is that among the 17 are eight mutations in the gene that encodes the spike protein on the viral surface, two of which are particularly worrisome. One, called N501Y, has previously been shown to increase how tightly the protein binds to the ACE2 receptor, its entry point into human cells. The other, named 69-70del, leads to the loss of two amino acids in the spike protein and has been found in viruses that eluded the immune response in some immunocompromised patients”

 

 

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Uk border closures from BNO

Growing number of countries banning travel from the UK due to coronavirus mutation:
- UK flights banned in Austria, the Netherlands, Italy, and Kuwait
- Belgium closing border to all travelers from the UK for at least 24 hours while deciding what to do

Germany becomes 6th country to ban air travel from the UK
 

Israel closes border to foreign citizens traveling from the UK, South Africa, and Denmark due to coronavirus mutation - JP

France bans all travel from the UK for at least 48 hours
 

Ireland has banned flights and passenger ferries from the UK, minister says; Bulgaria and Latvia have banned flights as well

More travel restrictions due to coronavirus mutation: 
- El Salvador closes border to anyone who's been in the UK or South Africa in the last 30 days
- Romania bans flights from the UK
- Sweden preparing to ban travel from the UK
- Netherlands banning ferries from the UK

Luxembourg and the Czech Republic ban flights from the UK
 

Turkey bans flights from the UK, Denmark, and the Netherlands due to coronavirus mutation
Turkey is also banning flights from South Africa

Iran and Morocco have joined other countries in banning flights from the UK
 

Canada bans all passenger flights from the UK due to coronavirus mutation, according to notice to airmen

 

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Thank you for the kind thoughts and prayers.

On top of everything else, my elderly parents are in the UK and I am now really scared that I wouldn’t even be able to try to get to them if they should become ill, because of the UK travel bans. I will really appreciate your prayers. 

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15 more cases in Sydney today. So moving from zero cases a week ago towards the hundred mark . . . everyone is changing plans around Christmas, no more interstate travel and reduced numbers allowed at Christmas gatherings. Really hoping they get on top of it before it spreads, especially as it is the summer holidays with lots of travel going on. 

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6 hours ago, popmom said:

I don't think it's so hard to build a bridge to that. So there are things that I can do as an individual and things our government agencies can do(but I'm not seeing it). I think it is probably a much worse problem that I realized. I do live in a bubble of highly educated people, and my friends that don't fall into the highly educated category haven't been party to spreading misinformation either. It was only acquaintances on social media. 

I don't have cable TV, so I may be missing something. I do subscribe to several magazines with ads and I watch some occasional Hulu also ads. I think the CDC should be doing more on this front--gaining the public's trust and combatting misinformation. I have looked at all of the CDC's current public service announcements, and none of them address issues of mistrust, misinformation, etc. Since this is apparently a huge problem, I can't imagine why this wouldn't be addressed with a task force dedicated to this specifically. It's a complex issue though and PSAs aren't going to be enough. 

I looked at the Ad Council's "social listening findings" and that was a joke.

I think the private sector scientific community needs to be more involved. I'm not sure what that would look like, but it is happening. It just needs to be more. Here is an article about that.

" Zagni says that avoiding appearing confrontational or patronizing is key when seeking to change minds. “Try to have an honest discussion with people about why they chose to share material, but don’t talk down to people or treat them as stupid. Most people are engaged in the same search for truth.”

A good collective effort would look like: Listen, ask good questions, listen more, respect personal beliefs, respect the person, educate.

 

I think local health departments are in an ideal position to build bridges within the community, but they are constrained by funding and staffing, and sadly in many cases, competency. My own county health dept has done nothing regarding the pandemic, but my neighboring county has a county health officer who has been very visible in the media since the pandemic began. Still, I haven't seen any efforts to battle misinformation. 

It can't just be left up to social media companies.

 

Nm, don’t want to get the thread locked.

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38 minutes ago, kand said:

Something I keep thinking of in reading about new measures to prevent spread of the UK strain, is why is this the thing that is making some places concerned enough to take stricter measures? It’s not surprising that we are seeing this, given how much virus spread there is. If we wanted to prevent significant mutation, we would have had to keep spread down. So, if this change is so alarming, wouldn’t it have made more sense to try to prevent enough spread that this was likely, rather than trying to contain it after the fact? I can’t imagine travelers haven’t already exported it. It seems like at every step of this pandemic, measures are reactive after the fact, when it’s too late to prevent what we want to prevent, rather than proactive. I actually do understand why that is, but it’s still frustrating to see it happen over and over. 

I agree but I think people are always more worried about something new than familiar.  We have already had cases of the new strain here and it hasn’t taken off or anything.  I guess maybe the concern is if the mutation is different enough that it gets around either the vaccine or antibodies from previous infections.

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15 hours ago, frogger said:

When I say the people I know sound like cult members, I mean the anti mask, Bill Gates wants to sterilize people with a vaccine and therefore helped create Covid crowd. 

Right. I can have a conversation, and ask questions, in many cases. But when someone says, as happened early on in a homeschool group here, that Covid is caused by the flu vaccine which has a microchip in it from Bill Gates (possibly activated by 5G), and any health experts saying different are lying because they were paid off by Gates, I just don't have a lot of room to work with. 

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16 minutes ago, Acadie said:

Just had a purely speculative thought, with zero supporting evidence--what if the UK variant is in CA, and contributing to the enormous rise in cases? 

Honestly I think one of CA's problems is the same as El Paso -- people coming over the border from Mexico. I'm trying to find the article I read that said one of the reasons they come -- not just collapse of the hospital system in MExico as this one says but American hospitals show more concern for their patients and do not require pre-payment before care is given.

https://www.amren.com/news/2020/12/coronavirus-patients-from-mexico-crossing-border-and-straining-u-s-hospitals/

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18 hours ago, popmom said:

I don't think it's so hard to build a bridge to that. So there are things that I can do as an individual and things our government agencies can do(but I'm not seeing it). I think it is probably a much worse problem that I realized. I do live in a bubble of highly educated people, and my friends that don't fall into the highly educated category haven't been party to spreading misinformation either. It was only acquaintances on social media. 

I don't have cable TV, so I may be missing something. I do subscribe to several magazines with ads and I watch some occasional Hulu also ads. I think the CDC should be doing more on this front--gaining the public's trust and combatting misinformation. I have looked at all of the CDC's current public service announcements, and none of them address issues of mistrust, misinformation, etc. Since this is apparently a huge problem, I can't imagine why this wouldn't be addressed with a task force dedicated to this specifically. It's a complex issue though and PSAs aren't going to be enough. 

I looked at the Ad Council's "social listening findings" and that was a joke.

I think the private sector scientific community needs to be more involved. I'm not sure what that would look like, but it is happening. It just needs to be more. Here is an article about that.

" Zagni says that avoiding appearing confrontational or patronizing is key when seeking to change minds. “Try to have an honest discussion with people about why they chose to share material, but don’t talk down to people or treat them as stupid. Most people are engaged in the same search for truth.”

A good collective effort would look like: Listen, ask good questions, listen more, respect personal beliefs, respect the person, educate.

 

I think local health departments are in an ideal position to build bridges within the community, but they are constrained by funding and staffing, and sadly in many cases, competency. My own county health dept has done nothing regarding the pandemic, but my neighboring county has a county health officer who has been very visible in the media since the pandemic began. Still, I haven't seen any efforts to battle misinformation. 

It can't just be left up to social media companies.

 

Many of the local health departments that are trying to build bridges and get information out there, the people there are getting death threats.  How do you build a bridge with someone who thinks its hilarious or a good thing that health departments are getting death threats?  

 

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14 hours ago, TCB said:

Thank you for the kind thoughts and prayers.

On top of everything else, my elderly parents are in the UK and I am now really scared that I wouldn’t even be able to try to get to them if they should become ill, because of the UK travel bans. I will really appreciate your prayers. 

Praying.  

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14 hours ago, TCB said:

Thank you for the kind thoughts and prayers.

On top of everything else, my elderly parents are in the UK and I am now really scared that I wouldn’t even be able to try to get to them if they should become ill, because of the UK travel bans. I will really appreciate your prayers. 


prayers 🙏

my parent(s) are not that far, but far enough to make travel unfeasible  - I have sent care packages (like with Vitamin D, zinc, Quercitin ☺️🥰) which helps me to feel like I am doing something 

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14 hours ago, kand said:

Something I keep thinking of in reading about new measures to prevent spread of the UK strain, is why is this the thing that is making some places concerned enough to take stricter measures? It’s not surprising that we are seeing this, given how much virus spread there is. If we wanted to prevent significant mutation, we would have had to keep spread down. So, if this change is so alarming, wouldn’t it have made more sense to try to prevent enough spread that this was likely, rather than trying to contain it after the fact? I can’t imagine travelers haven’t already exported it. It seems like at every step of this pandemic, measures are reactive after the fact, when it’s too late to prevent what we want to prevent, rather than proactive. I actually do understand why that is, but it’s still frustrating to see it happen over and over. 


mmy understand ing is the “new” strain (or closely related “new” strains with similar qualities, greater contagiousness, changed spike protein) has already been in various places for awhile now - it didn’t just emerge in UK        
 

I expect same measures I have been using since spring are still valid

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On 12/19/2020 at 8:47 PM, JennyD said:

The Tennessee governor's wife has been diagnosed with covid.  

I don't quite understand why Gov. Lee describes his own quarantining as being "out of an abundance of caution." I would say that if your spouse actually has covid, staying away from other people for a while qualifies as 'the bare minimum of responsible behavior,' even with a negative test.

 

You'd think that'd be common sense, right? Unfortunately, I know of a few families here who have been going about their business and not quarantining while a family member is positive. It's horrifying.

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9 hours ago, Acadie said:

Just had a purely speculative thought, with zero supporting evidence--what if the UK variant is in CA, and contributing to the enormous rise in cases? 

We have had it here in Aus and it didn’t really take off.  Coronacast take on it was that maybe it’s slightly more transmissible but more likely it hit at the right place right time when half the UK were Christmas shopping.  Also maybe it did a jump to animals and back to humans or something to explain so many mutations all at once 
 

if you’re interested in it nextstrain has some stuff on where different strains have shown up - I will look for and post.

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2 hours ago, kand said:

I think that isn't a crazy thought. As far as I know, there is very little genomic analysis in the US, while in the UK I've read they are typing about 10% of cases. There are researchers doing it in the US, but I think we just have way too much Covid and things are not organized enough for public health to be doing it. Thus, I'm not sure we would know it yet if it was here (which it surely must be). I'm sure they are now looking for it, though.

Do you have any other source that reports this? I'm not familiar with this publication, but looking it up it's listed as a white supremacist conspiracy theory and propaganda publication (the publisher describes itself as a “race-realist, white advocacy organization"), so I don't even want to click on it.

I agree the same recommended measures should still be valid. If people are observing those, they should still help reduce spread. If they are not, it's possible it will spread even faster than it has been before this. I don't think that is actually known for certain though, since it's still possible it just happened to emerge at the same time everyone was out Christmas shopping and such, and contributing to more spread that way. Hopefully more info soon.


imo ***super interesting*** Dr Been related to this subject!

re possible emergence and other related issues  like implications for monoclonal antibodies, vaccines etc

https://youtu.be/erxvThgpOog

 

 

(Also tonight an imo excellent Dr Shiva video related to immune system and measures to help for people who don’t exclude him from their viewing due to political differences.https://youtu.be/PyATVIag9vY  )

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Just got a call from my youngest son (23). He volunteered for an antibody study in October and just got his results back showing that he has Covid antibodies. He was still going in to work in March and thinks he might have been exposed then but who knows. He's been completely asymptomatic the entire year. We see him twice a week at his place so I wonder if we've had it, too, and are just asymptomatic. Might give blood to see if it shows anything.

We all wear a mask as soon as we leave our home or car and will keep doing that. And we all plan to get vaccinated when we can.

Crazy virus!

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World passed 80,000,000 cases.

japan is closing its borders to prevent entry of the new strain

UK numbers are up over April levels.  There is suggestion that they may start using the AZ vaccine from 4th of Jan though no real solid indicators as to how.  
 

Canada has detected the new strain in Canada.

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No official data yet and paywalled for me but AstraZeneca are claiming 95pc effective at preventing Covid19 and 100pc at preventing severe disease.  This would be fabulous news of true because will be cheaper and more readily available.

“Astra Zeneca’s chief executive, Pascal Soriot, today reveals that new data will show the vaccine is as effective as the Pfizer and Moderna jabs that have already been approved, protecting 95% of patients, and is “100% effective” in preventing severe illness requiring hospital treatment.“

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-vaccine-boost-for-millions-as-hospitals-near-breaking-point-vj7fpj2hr

 

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South Africa passed 1,000,000 cases of Covid.

The new strain circulating in Uk also been detected in samples from patients from Germany from November (wonder if it was there in significant enough numbers to have been part of the surge they had.  They seemed to have it really well controlled for a long time).  A preprint study seems to show its around 56pc more transmissible.  https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf
 

 

 

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ABC:

Russian COVID-19 death toll triples

Russia has admitted its national coronavirus death toll is more than three times higher than previously reported, making it the country with the third-largest number of fatalities.

For months President Vladimir Putin has boasted about Russia's low fatality rate from the virus, saying earlier this month that it had done a "better" job at managing the pandemic than Western countries - but since early in the pandemic, some Russian experts have said the Government was playing down the country's outbreak.

On Monday local time, Russian officials admitted that was true.

The Rosstat statistics agency said that the number of deaths from all causes recorded between January and November had risen by 229,700 compared to the previous year.

"More than 81 per cent of this increase in mortality over this period is due to COVID," said Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova, meaning that over 186,000 Russians have died from COVID-19.

 

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10 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-29/coronavirus-australia-live-news-latest/13018086
 

i can’t figure out how to link individually to the video but at the moment if you scroll down there is an Australian doctor who’s currently in LA - it sounds pretty serious.  

Just watched. It is really bad. I read that over the weekend 96% of hospitals were on diversion - meaning they were sending ambulances to other hospitals. And also that at times hospitals have run out of oxygen. Hospitalizations haven’t peaked yet.  Cases look like they may be starting to peak but I fear it will be short lived if they have.

I really want to know if the U.K. strain is behind this. I also want to know why we haven’t been doing more of this exploratory testing and keeping an eye on what strains are spreading. 😞Identifying and being able to tell the public early that there is a much more contagious strain out there probably has significant effects on behavior.... you would think it would be vital to be able to get that information out ASAP.

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https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2930TL?__twitter_impression=true
 

Beijing sealed off 10 areas of its northeastern Shunyi district on Tuesday, the first lockdown in the Chinese capital since the last coronavirus outbreak in the months of June and July. 

The city has reported 16 infections and three asymptomatic cases since Dec. 18, when the first cases were found. Most of the cases were in Shunyi, which has banned couriers from entering residential compounds.

Six villages, three buildings and one industrial zone were among the areas locked down, a Beijing municipal official told a news conference.

 

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33 minutes ago, Terabith said:

So if these new strains are more contagious, what do we do to protect ourselves?  Does it mean masks are less effective?  Does it mean surface transmission is a bigger deal?  Besides masking and social distancing, what else are we supposed to do?

All the epidemiologists etc have said that the measures are the same social distancing masking etc.  it’s just that to achieve the same slow down we need more people to be doing the measures better.  If it’s 50pc more contagious I guess that maybe means people need to reduce exposure by that much to get the same effect?  Basically the spike is now better at hooking on to human cells (?) so you don’t need to be exposed to as much to get an infectious dose.  (From my very much non expert translation of what I read so take that for what it’s worth)

I did read some hamster research today that said tentatively surface transmission may be causing less severe disease than breathing it in which was interesting.

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https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN29413Y?__twitter_impression=true
 

1 death after vaccine in Switzerland.  Most likely this will just be coincidental as it’s expected when you’re vaccinating a lot of people that some will die during that time just in the normal course of things and particularly when the group you’re vaccinating is older.   

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