wuhan - coronavirus

[Drama Llama]

On 11/29/2020 at 8:49 AM, Ausmumof3 said:

Not sure about source reliability but a pregnant woman in Singapore has given birth to a baby with antibodies to COVID19 after contracting it during pregnancy.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/infected-after-holiday-to-europe-pregnant-mum-gives-birth-to-baby-with-covid-19-antibodies

Is that how immunity normally gets passed on?  I know it can be shared through breastmilk and that with certain sheep sicknesses vaccinating in the weeks before birth gives the lambs some immunity so I’m guessing it’s the same for people?

 

I don't know about covid, but for some other diseases like HIV and Hepatitis B, a baby born to a positive mother will have the antibodies for months, even if they don't have the virus. 

I don't think that in that case, the antibodies pass on immunity.  If that was true then babies wouldn't be able to get HIV from breastfeeding from their birth mother, and we know that can happen.

[kbutton]

17 hours ago, popmom said:

So we should dismiss their experience out of hand because of that? I think the big parallel is trust. And respect for a human being's personal beliefs. That was my take away from the study, and all the other things I read over that period of time.

This seems to also go along with what I've heard about countering conspiracy theories. 

17 hours ago, popmom said:

Do we dismiss or judge those who don't have what we have arbitrarily determined to be an acceptable level of education as less than? Are they less human? Are their feelings less valid? This is where by beef with elitists comes in. 

It's where a lot of people's beef with elitists comes in, and then people end up running back to conspiracy theories. I think there is a clash sometimes, culturally, when people think one group has to be all or nothing. As if you can't believe in good pandemic science and creationism at the same time (I am using myself as an example since I am a creationist, but I buy into public health precautions, we vaccinate, etc.). Without getting into the line between science and policy (let's assume all in this discussion would like to have perfect world options for eradication), I think there is room for both popmom's observation and Frances' observations.

There are times I listen to one side of a science/policy debate, and it really resonates, and there are times the other does (and often, once I hear more nuance or think through additional factors, I am swayed firmly in one direction). In this instance, I am firmly on the side of sound pandemic science, but I feel like part of why I can be this way is that I can hop on here and hear about it. Outside of a couple of FB pages, people in my world have lost their minds, and previously reasonable people are doing stupid, stupid stuff and saying worse than what they are doing.

Am I completely frustrated by the deniers? Yes! So much so that I stopped trying to build a bridge. But I used to be a bridge builder, and we need more of them. It sounds like popmom has that ability right now. Yay!

At the same time, I feel like, like Frances, that there are definitely predictable outcomes that brought us here. Some of my bridge building in the last four years was with people that I thought would stand up to what I saw as an ugly trend four years ago, and that didn't happen (I have a common underlying belief system with them and thought they'd go the way I did). When the pandemic broke and people lost their minds the rest of the way, all bridge building for me has been out the window. 

What is happening to me now--being shunned and sidelined by people I thought I had common ground with--is the kind of experience that can really leave people jaded and open to conspiracies when they think they are being talked down, patronized, and pigeon-holed. I just happen to apparently have just a wee bit more perspective on some aspect of this that sways me to the side of sound pandemic science. 

That perspective could be personal and subjective, or it could be objective and rational. A lot of times, it's just one little thing that pushes people over the edge. I was pushed over the edge of bridge building to no-nonsense information sharing, but that push started four years ago, and the last step was a doozy.

I think the last four years have seen tottering, and those who didn't see that there was a shift (or didn't want to believe it), are those that fell off the reason cliff, TBH.

15 hours ago, Frances said:

I can see that side of it. Personally, I prefer my representation to be of the uniting, factual, non-propaganda and disinformation based variety, but to each his or her own own.

Me too, and I thought those around me with similar beliefs did too. Boy was I wrong! Or maybe I was correct, but something pushed them over...something like popmom is trying to get at.

21 minutes ago, Frances said:

I think it does exactly the opposite, actually. Bad leaders throughout time and place have used disinformation and propaganda as political tools. Their constituents are the victims. Recognizing that emphasizes the inherent value and dignity of all people and hopefully reminds us to choose leaders who show respect and empathy for others rather than exploiting them for their own personal gains.

I agree with this; paradoxically, I think the leaders chosen that brought us here were chosen because people felt that those leaders did have respect and empathy for them. I think they were duped and foolish and completely oblivious to the exploitation, but I think they were sincere. They gave (and still give) the benefit of the doubt long after it seems absurd because they want the same for themselves. 

[Ausmumof3]

I would say in response to @popmom up thread that Americans certainly don’t have a copyright on conspiracy theories around the pandemic.  There is plenty of it floating around down here as well.  We’ve just been lucky that we haven’t had to restrict as hard or as long which keeps the craziness at bay sometimes.  And I do think a lot of it has been due to luck, as well as our state premiers doing an excellent job on public health.  But luck has definitely been a factor.

[saraha]

And now there is this on facebook!

https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2119085017153/did-head-of-pfizer-research-say-covid-19-vaccine-is-female-sterilization

[saraha]

Someone on my facebook actually shared this idea that the vaccine contains something that will cause female sterilization. I just can't anymore. 🙄

Edited December 6, 2020 by saraha

[Shoeless]

2 hours ago, kbutton said:

Me too, and I thought those around me with similar beliefs did too. Boy was I wrong! Or maybe I was correct, but something pushed them over...something like popmom is trying to get at.

Over the last few months, I've wondered a lot about the people I knew who went off the reason cliff. I feel like I made such a huge misjudgment about their character and reasoning skills.  I really, really believed that our beliefs were in-line. We may have different ideas on how to solve or prioritize problems, but surely we could all agree on what the problem was. Surely we could all agree that a pandemic was a big problem, right? And that good leadership would be needed to get us out of this mess? 

To my astonishment, no, they did not even agree that a pandemic is problematic, and furthermore, they did not want leadership. At all. Someone I knew told me that she didn't view "unifying the people" as any part of the job function of the president, and was relieved? glad? excited? that the current president is not really trying to do that.   

I don't know how to build a bridge to that. I don't even know how to start, so I stopped trying. 

[Ausmumof3]

Bno: 7-day average of daily COVID deaths in the U.S. surpasses 2,000, nearly 3 weeks earlier than expected

[kbutton]

1 hour ago, MissLemon said:

I don't know how to build a bridge to that. I don't even know how to start, so I stopped trying. 

Yep.

I am glad that there are people who can see their viewpoint though, like popmom. Maybe someone still can.

[Frances]

3 minutes ago, kbutton said:

Yep.

I am glad that there are people who can see their viewpoint though, like popmom. Maybe someone still can.

I think shared values can be a place to start. It’s what I try to use with a family member to keep conversation going and civil. I also just ignore lots of the more extreme stuff and don’t even try to argue with it.

[Shoeless]

9 minutes ago, kbutton said:

Yep.

I am glad that there are people who can see their viewpoint though, like popmom. Maybe someone still can.

I am glad for that, too. ❤️ 

[Pen]

 

4 hours ago, kbutton said:

sound pandemic science. 
 

 

a problem IMO

is that “sound pandemic science” is not necessarily a single monolithic entity

what each person sees as right is what they believe to be “sound” because why would anyone believe something they think “unsound” . 
 

for example, in my own family my parents (divorced so there’s that ) both of whom are physicians have different but also both supportable views ...   a close friend of mine who is a physician has a different view than another close friend who is a physician... etc   
 

 

 

[Pen]

DrBeen tonight has to do with what antibody levels are needed for protection- a question that Iirc has been raised on this thread though I can’t recall by whom to give a tag:

https://youtu.be/L2FULPzMqis
 

[Pen]

Herbal approach - nigella sativa - honey -I realize most of WTM is apparently anti herbal approaches and anti early treatment . And anti anything that is from a non “peer” country.

I am putting this here merely in case it might afford someone some symptom relief. “Use what you can and leave the rest.” 
 

@popmom you might be interested perhaps 

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.30.20217364v4

Edited December 6, 2020 by Pen

[Laura Corin]

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/vitamins-reduce-covid-risk

Worth reading the whole article for the nuances of what they might have discovered. 

[YaelAldrich]

8 hours ago, Pen said:

Herbal approach - nigella sativa - honey -I realize most of WTM is apparently anti herbal approaches and anti early treatment . And anti anything that is from a non “peer” country.

I am putting this here merely in case it might afford someone some symptom relief. “Use what you can and leave the rest.” 
 

@popmom you might be interested perhaps 

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.30.20217364v4

The Indian allergist who treated my daughter's life threatening peanut allergy with oral immunotherapy suggested she take nigella seeds for the immuno-boost. She didn't get into them but I like them!

[Frances]

11 hours ago, Pen said:

Herbal approach - nigella sativa - honey -I realize most of WTM is apparently anti herbal approaches and anti early treatment . And anti anything that is from a non “peer” country.

I am putting this here merely in case it might afford someone some symptom relief. “Use what you can and leave the rest.” 
 

@popmom you might be interested perhaps 

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.30.20217364v4

Please don’t take my words out of context. Thank you.

[popmom]

12 hours ago, Pen said:

DrBeen tonight has to do with what antibody levels are needed for protection- a question that Iirc has been raised on this thread though I can’t recall by whom to give a tag:

https://youtu.be/L2FULPzMqis
 

I'm interested. Thank you.

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Frances said:

Please don’t take my words out of context. Thank you.

I am not responding to your words at all Afaik

many pages up thread I asked about sharing herbal remedies and had what to me personally was a substantial negative reaction (and I don’t recall now from whom - but I don’t think from you, but wanting only FDA, CDC type mainstream info backed by mainstream RCT here) - such that a PM group thread got started for people interested in herbs so as to avoid disturbing people on this thread that are anti herbs etc

 

this particular herb, like Vitamin D, seemed important enough to mention it here on main thread in case it could help someone and not just on herbal PM

please, Frances, “Take what you can use,  and leave the rest.”  No criticism of you has been intended.  
 

 

[Corraleno]

13 hours ago, Pen said:

Herbal approach - nigella sativa - honey -I realize most of WTM is apparently anti herbal approaches and anti early treatment . And anti anything that is from a non “peer” country.

I am putting this here merely in case it might afford someone some symptom relief. “Use what you can and leave the rest.” 
 

@popmom you might be interested perhaps 

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.30.20217364v4

That's an interesting little RCT, I'd love to see that replicated on a larger scale, and even tested as a prophylactic regimen rather than just a treatment. I would put Nigella in the same category as turmeric or green tea or vitamins — they have health benefits independent of any effect on Covid, so why not include some in your diet? 

For anyone interested in the dosages they used, it's 1 g of honey and 0.08 g of Nigella seeds per kg of body weight per day. For a 150 lb person that works out to roughly 3 tablespoons of honey and 1.5 teaspoons of Nigella seeds.

I wonder if honey was included in the study due to its own medicinal properties, or if they just included it because the traditional way of taking Nigella (as a medicine) is mixed with water and honey? I think the honey is mostly used to disguise the oniony/cuminy taste of the seeds mixed with water, which would be irrelevant to the study since they used capsules. They didn't specify if the honey they used is especially potent or active (like Manuka) or if it's even raw — if it's just plain old pasteurized honey, it probably isn't adding anything significant.

Nigella seeds are cheap and tasty (although maybe an acquired taste). You can get a 1 lb bag on Amazon for under $15, which would cover about 3 months at the recommended dosage for a 150 lb person. And maybe as a prophylactic the dose would be a lot smaller? I use them a lot anyway in curries, dals, soups, chili, rice, hummus, bread, roasted veg, and even salads, so consuming 1.5 tsp per day in food would be really easy. 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Corraleno

[Corraleno]

43 minutes ago, Pen said:

I am not responding to your words at all Afaik

many pages up thread I asked about sharing herbal remedies and had what to me personally was a substantial negative reaction (and I don’t recall now from whom - but I don’t think from you, but wanting only FDA, CDC type mainstream info backed by mainstream RCT here) - such that a PM group thread got started for people interested in herbs so as to avoid disturbing people on this thread that are anti herbs etc

 

this particular herb, like Vitamin D, seemed important enough to mention it here on main thread in case it could help someone and not just on herbal PM

please, Frances, “Take what you can use,  and leave the rest.”  No criticism of you has been intended.  
 

 

 

There has been disagreement on the value of "protocols" developed by individual doctors who give whole cocktails of drugs and supplements to their patients and then claim to have "proof" of efficacy because their patients get better, when there is no actual control group and no way to tell which of the many components of the "protocol" has any real effect.

That is an entirely different issue from an actual RCT of a substance that just happens to be a food, like Nigella seeds. The issue is scientific rigor, not whether the substance being tested is "herbal" or a drug.

Personally I would be extremely interested in any RCTs showing efficacy for herbs, foods, or vitamins — even moreso than drugs, because foods and vitamins are comparatively inexpensive, easy to add to a normal diet, and generally have no side effects.

[Acadie]

Saw this on FB. I wasn't able to find it on the CDC website so I'm not certain it's accurate, but the ones I and others have checked appear to be accurate.

It's an interesting metric for comparing the widely variable Covid experiences of residents in different states. 

1 in 346 people in NYC have died of Covid, compared to 1 in 5,882 in Alaska--and everything in between.

 

 

Edited December 7, 2020 by Acadie

[Wheres Toto]

40 minutes ago, Acadie said:

Saw this on FB. I wasn't able to find it on the CDC website so I'm not certain it's accurate.

Would love to know if anyone else can find it because it's an interesting metric for comparing the widely variable experiences of residents in different states. 

 

 

Does the math work out?   I can't think how to figure it out right now, my brain is fried. 

NJ has 15,000 deaths out of a population of 8.8 million.

[Ausmumof3]

ABC is reporting that moderna volunteers from phase 1 still have high levels of antibodies 3 months after the second dose.  Seems like a good sign.  Although I think they have higher doses to some of the phase 1 volunteers.

[Ausmumof3]

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/data-shows-people-moderna-vaccine-antibodies-months/story?id=74529058&__twitter_impression=true

[TravelingChris]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/skip-the-useless-covid-19-rules-please/ar-BB1bGcdX?fbclid=IwAR2acXerYJAH_Efqn_AkAbNzTMMnOSRiqF5nAljd2JWARsCM2FCmn5hPYS8&ocid=uxbndlbing

I believe I posted back in April on this thread about an interview with a state representative or state senator in my state who represents a poor, minority, less educated area.  He was specifically mentioning how and who does the talking making a lot of difference on how the rules are followed. 

This article has quotes from many specialists and media about how the messaging is often wrong and the rules arbitrary or totally non scientific.  And while some of that may have been okay in early March, we are in Dec now and still wrong messaging happens and arbitrary rules.

[Acadie]

12 hours ago, Wheres Toto said:

Does the math work out?   I can't think how to figure it out right now, my brain is fried. 

NJ has 15,000 deaths out of a population of 8.8 million.

Well there is this Forbes article about 1 in 700 CT residents dying of Covid which came out the same day as the chart I posted above, listing 1 in 699 for CT:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/12/04/1-in-every-700-connecticut-residents-has-died-from-covid-19/?sh=b5e2a4017f74

 

Edited December 7, 2020 by Acadie

[TravelingChris]

Well looking at the chart, I can see why some states and areas are so much more restrictive.  

[OH_Homeschooler]

On 12/4/2020 at 10:58 PM, popmom said:

This is not unique to our country, I think. I've thought a lot about this--the seeming inability to use logic. But logic doesn't do much good without trust.

I closely followed the ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The HCWs, scientists, and others who were desperately trying to eradicate that virus were met with resistance and aggression at every turn. Human beings are human beings where ever they happen to be located geographically. I'm not at all surprised by the "resistance" in our own country. Here is one study on DRC's issues w/ resistance. Clearly, there are vastly different cultural beliefs systems in play, but their conclusions do show some parallels with what might be going on in our society here. I wish that the CDC and NIH could do something similar with focus groups here. Maybe they are, but I haven't heard about it.

I just finished reading Crisis in the Red Zone and I was struck by this as well. Every other page was like "Oh, this is exactly what is happening right now in America!" Very enlightening. 

[TCB]

Interesting article about the vaccines 

https://coronavirus.medium.com/are-the-covid-19-vaccines-safe-3a399a9bd8a0

 

 

[kbutton]

Natural vs. vaccine immunity and a discussion about risks of covid in general: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/05/health/covid-natural-immunity.html?fbclid=IwAR3tempv-Q_5kk2lOh55lNq56pY0Wi-hXTjc2KHPjrkCar0YQhaeMlBIWT4 

[TravelingChris]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fbi-raids-new-jersey-lab-urges-new-covid-19-tests-n1250153?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

This is wonderful (not)

[kbutton]

16 hours ago, Acadie said:

Saw this on FB. I wasn't able to find it on the CDC website so I'm not certain it's accurate.

Would love to know if anyone else can find it because it's an interesting metric for comparing the widely variable experiences of residents in different states. 

 

 

DH says it's pretty accurate for Ohio. I think they have better population numbers than I found (mine were 2020). 

[Bootsie]

16 hours ago, Acadie said:

Saw this on FB. I wasn't able to find it on the CDC website so I'm not certain it's accurate.

Would love to know if anyone else can find it because it's an interesting metric for comparing the widely variable experiences of residents in different states. 

 

 

Take the death rate/ million from Worldometer--for Louisiana it is 1421.  Divide the 1421 by 1,000,000 to get 0.001421 (or 0.14%) Then take the reciprocal of 0.001421  to get the one out of X.  This works out to 1 out of 704 for Louisiana--so close to the numbers reported above

[Pen]

On 12/6/2020 at 10:50 AM, Corraleno said:

That's an interesting little RCT, I'd love to see that replicated on a larger scale, and even tested as a prophylactic regimen rather than just a treatment. I would put Nigella in the same category as turmeric or green tea or vitamins — they have health benefits independent of any effect on Covid, so why not include some in your diet? 

For anyone interested in the dosages they used, it's 1 g of honey and 0.08 g of Nigella seeds per kg of body weight per day. For a 150 lb person that works out to roughly 3 tablespoons of honey and 1.5 teaspoons of Nigella seeds.

I wonder if honey was included in the study due to its own medicinal properties, or if they just included it because the traditional way of taking Nigella (as a medicine) is mixed with water and honey? I think the honey is mostly used to disguise the oniony/cuminy taste of the seeds mixed with water, which would be irrelevant to the study since they used capsules. They didn't specify if the honey they used is especially potent or active (like Manuka) or if it's even raw — if it's just plain old pasteurized honey, it probably isn't adding anything significant.

Nigella seeds are cheap and tasty (although maybe an acquired taste). You can get a 1 lb bag on Amazon for under $15, which would cover about 3 months at the recommended dosage for a 150 lb person. And maybe as a prophylactic the dose would be a lot smaller? I use them a lot anyway in curries, dals, soups, chili, rice, hummus, bread, roasted veg, and even salads, so consuming 1.5 tsp per day in food would be really easy. 

 
IDK about the honey plus the nigella reasons .  
 

Have suspicion that it may be that honey is known as a natural antibacterial, antiviral, etc in its own right thus a combo might be used  —and also honey very likely to directly soothe some symptoms such as cough or sore throat -while rough seeds might irritate throat. 

(ETA- though in capsule to hide treatment from placebo, throat effect might not exist, but it still could be reason to couple them traditionally)
...

I have decided to try 

TWURL

as a new shorthand like JAWM

TWURL

if I can remember it, is now my short acronym for Take What you can Use and Leave the Rest  or Take What’s Useful Leave Rest

 

It will mean I found something that seems interesting enough to post about it — but I am not claiming that it is “scientific” to anyones desire for “scientific” levels - people can investigate for themselves and make up own minds. 
 

 

Edited December 7, 2020 by Pen

[The Governess]

19 hours ago, Acadie said:

Saw this on FB. I wasn't able to find it on the CDC website so I'm not certain it's accurate.

Would love to know if anyone else can find it because it's an interesting metric for comparing the widely variable experiences of residents in different states. 

 

 

Can you just divide the population by the number of deaths to get these numbers?

Edited December 7, 2020 by lovelearnandlive

[Acadie]

1 hour ago, lovelearnandlive said:

Can you just divide the population by the number of deaths to get these numbers?

Just edited my post to say the ones that I and others have checked appear to be accurate. 

 

[kbutton]

Ohio's numbers are about to get weird because a backlong is being cleared. 

I don't actually know what the manual verification process is, but I *think* it's intended to be a safeguard. I really hope that whatever the CDC's current case definition is is more precise than Ohio's, but I'm guessing if it lets us clear a backlog, it's less precise. I am sure this will fuel more conspiracy.

[popmom]

7 hours ago, OH_Homeschooler said:

I just finished reading Crisis in the Red Zone and I was struck by this as well. Every other page was like "Oh, this is exactly what is happening right now in America!" Very enlightening. 

I watched The Hot Zone--the mini series. I should read this, too. 

[Pen]

“Numbers” last time I checked US death numbers recently were still in range of recent years or only slightly high when total mortality from all causes is looked at (except for spike when NY/NJ were sky high in spring) .

Has anyone checked that recently? 

[Acadie]

2 hours ago, kbutton said:

Ohio's numbers are about to get weird because a backlong is being cleared. 

I don't actually know what the manual verification process is, but I *think* it's intended to be a safeguard. I really hope that whatever the CDC's current case definition is is more precise than Ohio's, but I'm guessing if it lets us clear a backlog, it's less precise. I am sure this will fuel more conspiracy.

12,600 uncounted results will increase our case numbers in one way or another, and I've heard that my county (Cuyahoga) would have shifted into purple last Thursday if these cases had been counted in a timely fashion. Instead we're still "on watch" to go purple. 

No doubt this will fuel conspiracy. Not sure what help there is for that, other than for OH public health officials and politicians to try their darnedest to get data and messaging right as quickly as possible. 

From a friend in healthcare I've heard Cleveland Clinic main campus ICU is full. There are limited beds at smaller hospitals, and refrigerated trucks are on the way. 

[Corraleno]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

“Numbers” last time I checked US death numbers recently were still in range of recent years or only slightly high when total mortality from all causes is looked at (except for spike when NY/NJ were sky high in spring) .

Has anyone checked that recently? 

I don't think that's been true for a very long time. There were numerous reports last summer suggesting that excess deaths significantly exceeded the covid count, and as of October 3rd, there were 300K excess deaths, of which only 200K were officially listed as covid deaths:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

"Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths occurred from late January through October 3, 2020, with 198,081 (66%) excess deaths attributed to COVID-19. "

That's an extra 100,000 deaths that are not included in the covid count. Some of those may be indirectly caused by the pandemic (people who were unable to access healthcare due to hospital overwhelm, were too scared to seek help, etc.) but it also suggests that we may be significantly undercounting deaths directly caused by covid as well. And that was 2 months ago, when the current surge was just starting so I imagine it's even worse now, but this was the most recent data that popped up when I was looking specifically for CDC data on excess deaths.

[Ausmumof3]

5 hours ago, lovelearnandlive said:

Can you just divide the population by the number of deaths to get these numbers?

Worldometer has this information at state level 

[Ausmumof3]

We had our tenth day of zero.  Restrictions are set to lift again on Monday assuming all goes well.  Back to 50 for home gatherings, can’t remember, 75pc capacity for theatres and entertainment venues if masked, pubs and restaurants back to standing up drinking, play cafes open, private gatherings weddings and funerals up to 200, capacity for gyms at 2 people per square metre, end to the advice to work from home where possible.  
 

international flights are resuming.  Initially it was said that any positive cases would be moved to a separate facility but not they are only being moved to separate floors.  The number of cases coming into hotel quarantine is still quite high, I think reflecting the state of the rest of the world.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/will-a-coronavirus-vaccine-actually-stop-you-getting-covid/12957988
 

I can’t find where the vaccine thread went so sharing this here.  It’s talking about what it means for vaccine rollout if vaccines prevent just disease versus disease and infection.  Basically if the vaccine prevents both doing a staggered roll out is ok.  But if it only prevents disease you need to build up manufacturing and storage capacity and try to get prepped then doing a mass vaccination program in the shortest time possible.  Otherwise you risk having people who are vaccinated acting as super spreaders which could be a pretty nasty situation in aged care etc.

There is a mid road option where vaccination reduces but doesn’t eliminate spread as well.

it also explains a bit about the mechanism of how it might work, how long it might be before we know, and why it’s been raised as a concern (basically the Astra Zeneca vaccine acted that way in primates).

 

It also has very specific implications for countries like Australia and New Zealand.  If it prevents infection we can use vaccination certificates to let people in, but if it doesn’t that won’t work. 

Edited December 8, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/amp/coronavirus/2020/12/02/Coronavirus-Coronavirus-BioNTECH-Pfizer-testing-if-vaccine-prevents-COVID-19-after-UK-approval?__twitter_impression=true
 

it looks like we are still three to six months off knowing whether Pfizers vaccine prevents infection or not.  I must admit I can’t help wondering why they didn’t do weeks PCR tests on a small cohort of the trial to get some kind of an idea.  It seems like it would be so important to know.

[Pen]

14 hours ago, Corraleno said:

I don't think that's been true for a very long time. There were numerous reports last summer suggesting that excess deaths significantly exceeded the covid count, and as of October 3rd, there were 300K excess deaths, of which only 200K were officially listed as covid deaths:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

"Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths occurred from late January through October 3, 2020, with 198,081 (66%) excess deaths attributed to COVID-19. "

That's an extra 100,000 deaths that are not included in the covid count. Some of those may be indirectly caused by the pandemic (people who were unable to access healthcare due to hospital overwhelm, were too scared to seek help, etc.) but it also suggests that we may be significantly undercounting deaths directly caused by covid as well. And that was 2 months ago, when the current surge was just starting so I imagine it's even worse now, but this was the most recent data that popped up when I was looking specifically for CDC data on excess deaths.

I don’t disagree with totals since January

I am looking for a recent breakdown by week or month comparing to 2018 and 2019 so as to distinguish recent versus aggregate 

[TravelingChris]

I know that from my local updates- we have the most cases we have had since the pandemic began but most of the deaths actually occurred earlier in the pandemic.  The hospital officials are saying that while numbers are up, deaths are way down.  

[Jean in Newcastle]

28 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

I know that from my local updates- we have the most cases we have had since the pandemic began but most of the deaths actually occurred earlier in the pandemic.  The hospital officials are saying that while numbers are up, deaths are way down.  

That might depend on the state?  In the spring my state averaged around 25 deaths a day.  Now it's over 50 deaths a day. 

[cintinative]

18 hours ago, kbutton said:

Ohio's numbers are about to get weird because a backlong is being cleared. 

I don't actually know what the manual verification process is, but I *think* it's intended to be a safeguard. I really hope that whatever the CDC's current case definition is is more precise than Ohio's, but I'm guessing if it lets us clear a backlog, it's less precise. I am sure this will fuel more conspiracy.

He said something like they call the person who tested positive (via antigen) to identify if there was a known exposure. There was one other thing they verified, but unfortunately I can't remember.  

I agree that there will be more conspiracy theories. I wish they could just report it separately today somehow. But I do understand why they felt the need to just accept the data at face value and not independently verify each case.

[cintinative]

15 hours ago, Acadie said:

12,600 uncounted results will increase our case numbers in one way or another, and I've heard that my county (Cuyahoga) would have shifted into purple last Thursday if these cases had been counted in a timely fashion. Instead we're still "on watch" to go purple. 

 

From a friend in healthcare I've heard Cleveland Clinic main campus ICU is full. There are limited beds at smaller hospitals, and refrigerated trucks are on the way. 

My county fell off the purple watch list, probably because of slow testing Thanksgiving weekend. Not sure. It seems like Cuyahoga is getting slammed. I am so sorry.