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17 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

That sounds horrendously big until you compare it to the number of child care facilities in Texas -- over 12000.

Yes.  I was posting less due the numbers but more because it relates to the discussion about whether infection will travel through elementary schools and child care or not.  It’s hard to make out for sure whether these were simply individual cases in people who attended childcare or indicative of spread through childcare settings.

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9 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yes.  I was posting less due the numbers but more because it relates to the discussion about whether infection will travel through elementary schools and child care or not.  It’s hard to make out for sure whether these were simply individual cases in people who attended childcare or indicative of spread through childcare settings.

It says 1300 cases in 883 facilities -- that isn't even 2 cases per facility so in a lot of those facilities they have only 1 case.  1300-883=417 (less than half).  So at least more than half of those facilities have only 1 case.  There may be a lot of spread in a very few facilities. Or not much spread and 1 or 2 cases per faciliy

 

And actually the article itself says there are 12,200 facilities currently open in Texas.

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10 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

Actually, reading the article, it's even better than that.  Because 883 isn't the number of centers in all, it's just the number that have cases.  There are 12,200 childcare centers open in Texas.

So, those are tiny numbers.  Also if the number 883 is the number of centers who have at least one case, then at least 1/2 of the centers must have just one case.  Which is an indication that the virus isn't spreading in Texas childcare centers, if 1/2 of the centers that had the virus had no spread.

Now, of courses, this is only people who showed symptoms and got tested, but that still seems like really good news for both the theory that little kids don't spread, and for the idea that, at least in schools serving younger kids, we can prevent spread between teachers in schools.  

Here is my issue though. We know kids are less likely to have symptoms severe enough to prompt testing. So there could be bunches of kids infected, who are not tested. They give it to their parents. Their parents don't realize it came from the daycare center, because parent has been to stores, work, etc. Or they have no or mild symptoms, and spread it to people at their work. Then the positive cases get reported as being associated with that workplace, not with the daycare. 

I mean, I don't know about texas, but almost all our cases are "community spread" with "no known contact" - in other words we have pretty much NO contact tracing. So asymptomatic kids spreading it to parents would likely never, here at least, be tied back to the daycare. Unless they test all hte kids and staff, not just the symptomatic ones, we just don't know. And I haven't seen that done large scale yet. 

9 hours ago, Terabith said:

That makes me wonder if the incubation period is longer than 14 days?

Or they caught it while in isolation. 

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Just now, vonfirmath said:

It says 1300 cases in 883 facilities -- that isn't even 2 cases per facility so in a lot of those facilities they have only 1 case.  1300-883=417 (less than half).  So at least more than half of those facilities have only 1 case.  There may be a lot of spread in a very few facilities. Or not much spread and 1 or 2 cases per faciliy

 

And actually the article itself says there are 12,200 facilities currently open in Texas.

Known cases. My understanding was not that all kids and staff were tested. We have ZERO idea if the rest of the kids have it and are spreading it. 

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Just now, Ktgrok said:

Known cases. My understanding was not that all kids and staff were tested. We have ZERO idea if the rest of the kids have it and are spreading it. 

You aren't going to 100% know that. Even when testing happens, the rate of negatives is far too high to know for sure. (30% false negatives is what we're being told on the ground. If you have symptoms, stay home even if you get a negative)  And our tests are so stretched wiht the crisis we dont have capacity to test people that aren't showing symptoms.

 

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4 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

It says 1300 cases in 883 facilities -- that isn't even 2 cases per facility so in a lot of those facilities they have only 1 case.  1300-883=417 (less than half).  So at least more than half of those facilities have only 1 case.  There may be a lot of spread in a very few facilities. Or not much spread and 1 or 2 cases per faciliy

 

And actually the article itself says there are 12,200 facilities currently open in Texas.

So maybe they are isolated infection rather than spread within the centres?  That would be a more positive outcome.  

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1 minute ago, vonfirmath said:

You aren't going to 100% know that. Even when testing happens, the rate of negatives is far too high to know for sure. (30% false negatives is what we're being told on the ground. If you have symptoms, stay home even if you get a negative)  And our tests are so stretched wiht the crisis we dont have capacity to test people that aren't showing symptoms.

 

Right. I'm just saying, we do not have evidence to say it isn't spreading in daycares, or that kids are not taking it home and spreading it, etc. We just don't have that data yet. So we shouldn't say "only X number of kids have it, it isn't spreading" unless we at least attempted to find out, via testing. People are using this info as proof it doesn't spread in kids, to make major life and death decisions. 

My state department of health yesterday ordered all schools K-12 to open full time, 5 days a week, in August, despite us averaging about 10,000 cases a day. The only exception is if the local department of health says it isn't safe - but there is no understanding on if and how they would make that determination, It's a mess. And so yeah, with a sister working full time as an admin in a public school here, with risk factors, I'm a bit sensitive to decisions like that being made because "see! It isn't spreading between kids!" when we don't know that yet. (not saying you are saying that)

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10 hours ago, lewelma said:

Just asking. 🙂   Yesterday's NSW/Vicrotia border closure was the first time the borders have ever been closed between states in Australia, so it made me think of the US. There is a first time for everything.

As for 'crazy' NZ style lockdown, it was supported by 90% of the population.  So apparently not crazy in this culture and not an over-reach of the government either.  90% is a shocking approval rating for anything in politics. 

 

It would be considered crazy here, though. I think certain states would go for it if they could eliminate the virus, though. CA likely would have been cool with it at the beginning, and probably still would be if they knew the borders could be entirely closed, expect for thing such as food leaving the state,  etc. 

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23 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Here is my issue though. We know kids are less likely to have symptoms severe enough to prompt testing. So there could be bunches of kids infected, who are not tested. They give it to their parents. Their parents don't realize it came from the daycare center, because parent has been to stores, work, etc. Or they have no or mild symptoms, and spread it to people at their work. Then the positive cases get reported as being associated with that workplace, not with the daycare. 

I mean, I don't know about texas, but almost all our cases are "community spread" with "no known contact" - in other words we have pretty much NO contact tracing. So asymptomatic kids spreading it to parents would likely never, here at least, be tied back to the daycare. Unless they test all hte kids and staff, not just the symptomatic ones, we just don't know. And I haven't seen that done large scale yet. 

Or they caught it while in isolation. 

Yes, but if you figure that there must be an average of at least 10 kids per daycare right?  So, there are at least 122K kids in daycare in Texas, and during the surge they found 441 cases?

That's about 0.3%.  Even if you assume that they missed 90% of the cases, it's still like 3% infection rate, which is way lower than the positivity numbers for Texas.  

I'm not saying this proves anything, but it doesn't seem concerning.  

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10 hours ago, Pawz4me said:

Maybe an interesting tidbit regarding US states locking down -- Back in March, even before North Carolina's stay-at-home order was issued, there was one rural, conservative county up in the mountains that locked itself down. There are only two roads in/out of the county, and they posted deputies on those roads to enforce the lock down. But it only lasted three weeks. In their case it was due to lack of funding--a rural, poor county that relies on tourism couldn't afford to pay the deputies to enforce the lock down. But according to the article no one seriously disputed their right to do it. Although obviously one county in one state locking down is different than a lock down between states in many ways (including legality and, at least in this case, feasibility of enforcing it due to very limited points of entry):

 

People have wanted our county to seal up for many reasons and were point blank told that's illegal. 

Edited by kdsuomi
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34 minutes ago, kdsuomi said:

People have wanted our country to seal up for many reasons and were point blank that's illegal. 

What country are you in? I can't imagine any country not being able to shut its borders.

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9 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

What country are you in? I can't imagine any country not being able to shut its borders.

Maybe she means county?  

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5 hours ago, whitehawk said:

Except we don't know how many are actually open, right? The preschools closed in March and haven't reopened yet. Day cares reopened but are not being used by parents who have not gone back to work yet (such as K-12 and university teachers).

Does somebody know how many are open and at what capacity?

The article said 882 were opened

Edited by Melissa in Australia
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5 hours ago, vonfirmath said:

You aren't going to 100% know that. Even when testing happens, the rate of negatives is far too high to know for sure. (30% false negatives is what we're being told on the ground. If you have symptoms, stay home even if you get a negative)  And our tests are so stretched wiht the crisis we dont have capacity to test people that aren't showing symptoms.

If 30% of the positive tests are falsely showing negative, shouldn't we just increase our assumed positive cases, then? 

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20 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

The article said 882 were opened

It is my understanding that the cases were reported at 883 individual child care locations, but that there are over 12,000 child care centers currently open in Texas.  There were 441 cases reported in children and almost 900 reported of workers.  

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18 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

It is my understanding that the cases were reported at 883 individual child care locations, but that there are over 12,000 child care centers currently open in Texas.  There were 441 cases reported in children and almost 900 reported of workers.  

Ah, sorry I probably misread. 

Edited by Melissa in Australia

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5 hours ago, Pawz4me said:

What country are you in? I can't imagine any country not being able to shut its borders.

Whoops, typing too fast before work. That should have been county. 

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1 minute ago, RootAnn said:

@KtgrokDid Florida release hospitalization data finally? I'm seeing a lot of chatter on how low bed availability is. https://www.wesh.com/amp/article/florida-sees-second-highest-jump-in-covid-19-hospitalizations-since-beginning-of-pandemic/33239920

They don't report it as a separate stat on their main dashboard or reports, but other agencies are somewhat tracking it. I posted over on the Florida Covid thread that the county next to mine is at 97% ICU capacity, my county is at 85%, several counties are at 100 percent. The Sun Sentinel has a map showing it. 

 

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@Pen@CuriousMomof3@TCB@Ausmumof3

https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-approves-first-surface-disinfectant-products-tested-sars-cov-2-virus

“EPA approves first surface disinfectant products tested on the SARS-CoV-2 virus

07/06/2020

Contact Information: 
EPA Press Office (press@epa.gov) 

WASHINGTON (July 6, 2020) — Throughout the COVID-19 public health emergency, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has worked to provide the American public with information about how to safely and effectively kill the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, on surfaces. Last week, EPA approved two products, Lysol Disinfectant Spray (EPA Reg No. 777-99) and Lysol Disinfectant Max Cover Mist (EPA Reg No. 777-127), based on laboratory testing that shows the products are effective against SARS-CoV-2.

...

This week, EPA updated the entries for two products on List N to show they have now been tested directly against SARS-CoV-2. These are the first List N products for which the agency has reviewed laboratory testing data and approved label claims against SARS-CoV-2. EPA expects to approve such claims for additional List N products in the coming weeks. 

All products on EPA’s List N meet the agency’s criteria for effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2. When using an EPA-registered disinfectant, follow the label directions for safe, effective use. Make sure to follow the contact time, which is the amount of time the surface should be visibly wet. Read the agency’s infographic on how to use these products.

Additional information on EPA’s coronavirus efforts: https://www.epa.gov/coronavirus ”

 

 

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I wonder how sick Jair Bolsonaro will get, just mild or more significant ?

 

 

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18 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

191 cases for vic today.  😬

Are you guys in winter now?

Everyone needs to start taking cod liver oil and vitamin D gummies!!

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There appears to be a biggish jump in deaths yesterday in the US?  But maybe that’s something to do with the way days was handled over the July 4th weekend.

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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

There appears to be a biggish jump in deaths yesterday in the US?  But maybe that’s something to do with the way days was handled over the July 4th weekend.

 

I know that CA's numbers have been reported all kinds of wonky because of how LA County has been reporting numbers. I would expect a lot would have to do with the holiday weekend because many counties weren't reporting on Friday (observing holiday), Saturday, or Sunday.

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

There appears to be a biggish jump in deaths yesterday in the US?  But maybe that’s something to do with the way days was handled over the July 4th weekend.

 

I think it was due to lack of reporting for the last few days, but we’ll see if it continues. 

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As far as hospitalization rates go, we are in Virginia, which is not a super hard hit state, in Roanoke, which is not a super hard hit part of the state (although numbers are definitely going up).  Our hospital is out of room and has gone to surge protocols. 

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Scotland: 'We mess with this virus at our peril': Sturgeon urges caution as Covid-19 deaths fall

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/08/we-mess-with-this-virus-at-our-peril-sturgeon-urges-caution-as-covid-19-deaths-fall?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

 

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3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

There appears to be a biggish jump in deaths yesterday in the US?  But maybe that’s something to do with the way days was handled over the July 4th weekend.

Some of it is due to low reporting over the holiday weekend, but even if you look at 7-day averages, which include the low reporting days, deaths in Texas and Arizona are still the highest they've ever been:

Texas is at a 7-day average of 47 deaths, up from 20 in mid-June (previous 7-day peak was 37 in early May).

Arizona is at a 7-day average of 42, up from 17 in mid-June (previous 7-day peak was 27 in early May).

Florida is at 48, just below their early-May 7-day peak of 51, but up from 30 in mid-June.

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I didnt look to see if this had already been posted, but this is an excellent summary of where we are today in understanding the virus and treatments

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-632/

ETA:  I only listened to the first segment which is about 30 mins long.

Edited by 8FillTheHeart
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3 hours ago, Corraleno said:

Some of it is due to low reporting over the holiday weekend, but even if you look at 7-day averages, which include the low reporting days, deaths in Texas and Arizona are still the highest they've ever been:

Texas is at a 7-day average of 47 deaths, up from 20 in mid-June (previous 7-day peak was 37 in early May).

Arizona is at a 7-day average of 42, up from 17 in mid-June (previous 7-day peak was 27 in early May).

Florida is at 48, just below their early-May 7-day peak of 51, but up from 30 in mid-June.

Yeah, the hot spot states are definitely having increasing death rates :-(.

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3 hours ago, Melissa in Australia said:

132 new cases here in Vic today. 

Over the last 11 days one p - 12 school has had 103 cases

Mind linking more about the school? How old were the kids?

ETA: found a link:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/08/victorias-year-11-and-12-to-return-to-school-despite-covid-19-cluster-at-al-taqwa-college
 

Looks like this one had significant student to student transmission, but in the upper grades. So more evidence that we need to do something different for high school.

Edited by square_25
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29 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yeah, the hot spot states are definitely having increasing death rates :-(.

Not according to our Governor! He told a group of senior citizens there is no reason to be fearful of this virus just a few days ago! (I really don't like him)

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11 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Not according to our Governor! He told a group of senior citizens there is no reason to be fearful of this virus just a few days ago! (I really don't like him)

Oh my goodness. Does he WANT it to spread through the senior citizens? That will definitely get the death rates up...

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8 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh my goodness. Does he WANT it to spread through the senior citizens? That will definitely get the death rates up...

I don't think he cares. 

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1 minute ago, Ktgrok said:

I don't think he cares. 

Oh, I think he’s just in denial. He wouldn’t enjoy that coverage.

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24 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Not according to our Governor! He told a group of senior citizens there is no reason to be fearful of this virus just a few days ago! (I really don't like him)

Well, he's only 41, so... 😠

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1 hour ago, 8FillTheHeart said:

I didnt look to see if this had already been posted, but this is an excellent summary of where we are today in understanding the virus and treatments

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-632/

 

I am not normally a fan of listening to podcasts, I'd much rather read. This was great. I only listened to the first half hour, and it seemed they were moving on to other topics at that point. It was well worth my time. Thank you for linking this!

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1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Mind linking more about the school? How old were the kids?

ETA: found a link:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/08/victorias-year-11-and-12-to-return-to-school-despite-covid-19-cluster-at-al-taqwa-college
 

Looks like this one had significant student to student transmission, but in the upper grades. So more evidence that we need to do something different for high school.

In a city in Minnesota, they are apparently having a massive outbreak in teens. That tells me that yes, teens spread covid just as easily as adults. But it also tells me that young kids are likely not spreading it as easily because this idea that it could be going unnoticed seems unlikely when we are finding it in older kids. I wonder where the line is. Under 10? Puberty? This would be helpful info.

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1 hour ago, TracyP said:

In a city in Minnesota, they are apparently having a massive outbreak in teens. That tells me that yes, teens spread covid just as easily as adults. But it also tells me that young kids are likely not spreading it as easily because this idea that it could be going unnoticed seems unlikely when we are finding it in older kids. I wonder where the line is. Under 10? Puberty? This would be helpful info.

It might be a continuum -- spread gets easier and easier as kids get older. I would also like this data. 

I definitely haven't heard of a single mass outbreak in the under 10s, though. 

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1 hour ago, TracyP said:

I am not normally a fan of listening to podcasts, I'd much rather read. This was great. I only listened to the first half hour, and it seemed they were moving on to other topics at that point. It was well worth my time. Thank you for linking this!

I also only listened to the first segment.  I probably should have clarified that!!  I am also not normally a podcast fan, but I thought it was a great concise overview of what we know as of today.

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My personal observation—very small numbers, very anecdotal—is that the younger children are much more cooperative about physical distancing, wearing a mask to extent able, washing hands, than are the older children and teens.  

Puberty or around there may bring physical changes that are significant to SARS2, but it also may commonly bring attitude, behavior and emotional changes that make contagion more likely.

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14 hours ago, Pen said:

 

 

I wonder how sick Jair Bolsonaro will get, just mild or more significant ?

 

 

  No idea, but I heard his wife’s grandmother( Mother? Not sure) was very ill and intubated.

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Just now, Dotwithaperiod said:

  No idea, but I heard his wife’s grandmother( Mother? Not sure) was very ill and intubated.

I also heard that the grandmother was estranged from the family so unfortunately he might not really care. 

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1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

My personal observation—very small numbers, very anecdotal—is that the younger children are much more cooperative about physical distancing, wearing a mask to extent able, washing hands, than are the older children and teens.  

Puberty or around there may bring physical changes that are significant to SARS2, but it also may commonly bring attitude, behavior and emotional changes that make contagion more likely.

Personal observation here, too. I’ve seen many toddler sized kids walking with their families and wearing masks recently, talking and laughing, etc.

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1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

My personal observation—very small numbers, very anecdotal—is that the younger children are much more cooperative about physical distancing, wearing a mask to extent able, washing hands, than are the older children and teens.  

Puberty or around there may bring physical changes that are significant to SARS2, but it also may commonly bring attitude, behavior and emotional changes that make contagion more likely.

My 20 year old said this as well. That elementary kids are the most likely to follow the rules. 

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1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

My personal observation—very small numbers, very anecdotal—is that the younger children are much more cooperative about physical distancing, wearing a mask to extent able, washing hands, than are the older children and teens.  

Puberty or around there may bring physical changes that are significant to SARS2, but it also may commonly bring attitude, behavior and emotional changes that make contagion more likely.

Probably true for 8 year olds, emphatically false for 4 year olds...

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3 hours ago, TracyP said:

In a city in Minnesota, they are apparently having a massive outbreak in teens. That tells me that yes, teens spread covid just as easily as adults. But it also tells me that young kids are likely not spreading it as easily because this idea that it could be going unnoticed seems unlikely when we are finding it in older kids. I wonder where the line is. Under 10? Puberty? This would be helpful info.

We don't know whether the under 10s are spreading or not because we aren't doing wide spread testing. What we do know is that under 10s are less likely to be symptomatic.  For all we know they ARE becoming covid-positive and ARE spreading, but because they aren't becoming ill they aren't becoming tested.  

I'm still following the local to me childcare outbreak story.  Kids tested positive, but it was their parents and childcare staff that became ill enough to trigger concern and testing and contact tracing.  There was clearly spread through the facility.  Similarly, the camp outbreak in Missouri (82 positive so far) seems to suggest that kids get covid and spread it.

 

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I haven't seen this in national news yet, but I have been following this story:

https://www.kansascity.com/news/state/missouri/article244033672.html

https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/missouri-summer-camp-coronavirus-outbreak-raises-safety-questions/63-7ff9422f-9022-4ff9-9d2d-978a0148ec1b : this article mentions camp outbreaks in TX (76 people at one camp) and other states

https://fox4kc.com/news/covid-19-infects-dozens-of-campers-workers-at-missouri-summer-camp/ : this mentions that those affected at the Missouri camp were at the K-2 camp.

 

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