wuhan - coronavirus

[Pen]

8 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Sorry I wasn’t meaning you (or anyone personally on this forum) was being complacent.  I have seen surveys suggesting 1/3 of people plan to travel for thanksgiving.   That seems maybe a little complacent.  I don’t know what the individual plans for safety are maybe they have everything in place but it’s such a lot of people moving around.  I wish you could all safely see your loved ones.  It’s hard to imagine going so long without seeing your parents.  
 

heck we have been complacent here, that’s partly why we’re in sudden lockdown. Because all the contacts have so many contacts because life is basically normal here.  

 

Sudden lockdown may have an advantage over threatened future lockdown. 

Some people in US and in Western States I know irl who plan to travel for the holidays are doing so because, they believe if they don’t do it soon there will be enforced lockdowns and travel bans rather than just travel advisories such that they won’t be allowed to in future — maybe not even until 1/2 or 3/4 of way through 2021.  
 

And as people see more people doing it they think major lockdowns are hugely likely and rethink their idea to stay home. Holiday travel is starting to seem like a version of a run on Toilet paper—better stock up while it’s still allowed. 

[Ausmumof3]

England's lockdown due to end on December 2

    

The British government still intends to lift England's coronavirus lockdown on the 2nd of December as the number of infections stabilise.

  

Latest figures show a drop of almost 14 per cent in positive tests during the past seven days compared to the week before. 

  

In the same period the number of deaths has been relatively unchanged at more than 2,800. 

  

The infection rate remains high at 244 cases for every 100,000 people.

  

England went into a four-week lockdown in early November.

[Ausmumof3]

6 hours ago, Pen said:

 

Sudden lockdown may have an advantage over threatened future lockdown. 

Some people in US and in Western States I know irl who plan to travel for the holidays are doing so because, they believe if they don’t do it soon there will be enforced lockdowns and travel bans rather than just travel advisories such that they won’t be allowed to in future — maybe not even until 1/2 or 3/4 of way through 2021.  
 

And as people see more people doing it they think major lockdowns are hugely likely and rethink their idea to stay home. Holiday travel is starting to seem like a version of a run on Toilet paper—better stock up while it’s still allowed. 

Yep that’s probably true.  The sudden lockdown did feel a bit scrambly though.  There was a quite a number of vehicle accidents etc that afternoon probably in part with people scrambling to get home from various holiday destinations or fly in fly out workers etc.  But there’s definitely some psychology around making mandatory restrictions that makes people want to do all the things they are allowed to do even if they don’t really need to.

[Pen]

There’s another “protocol” for early home treatment in USA that I have a link to. If anyone is interested please PM me. It has potential political aspects and lack of RCT so I don’t want to post here.

 

[Ausmumof3]

Still trending down in France 

Bno:  France COVID update: Positive trend continues

- New cases: 17,881
- Positivity rate: 14.8% (-0.2)
- In hospital: 31,365 (-541)
- In ICU: 4,493 (-89)
- New deaths: 276

I haven’t been watching Spain much but noticed they are trending down as well.  I know they brought in some restrictions.  Anyone remember what?

[Ausmumof3]

0 local cases 1 international traveller in hotel quarantine.  23rd day of zero for Vic and mask mandate is being lifted.  Home gatherings up to 15 and funerals and weddings to 150.

most restrictions lifted in SA, still a ban on community sport so no tennis for my kids at this point.

[matrips]

5 hours ago, Pen said:

There’s another “protocol” for early home treatment in USA that I have a link to. If anyone is interested please PM me. It has potential political aspects and lack of RCT so I don’t want to post here.

 

Hi Pen,

it said you couldn’t receive messages.  Would you try messaging me instead with the protocol info?  Thanks 🙂

[DoraBora]

23 minutes ago, matrips said:

Hi Pen,

it said you couldn’t receive messages.  Would you try messaging me instead with the protocol info?  Thanks 🙂

I'm also interested and I couldn't send you a PM either.

And thank you.

Edited November 22, 2020 by DoraBora

[Ausmumof3]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mRWA6SrT4C9qdHQsHENXJjJ4Fg1oA4HiLlwob5xOA_M/htmlview
 

A maybe useful spreadsheet with links to information sources on different aspects of covid including trackers, testing cases data, recommendations for quarantine and isolation periods, clinical data, treatment data, support groups, vaccine info etc Looks like it could be a helpful resource.

[Pen]

17 hours ago, matrips said:

Hi Pen,

it said you couldn’t receive messages.  Would you try messaging me instead with the protocol info?  Thanks 🙂

done - if anyone else has that problem, tag me and I’ll add you on

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

done - if anyone else has that problem, tag me and I’ll add you on

Yes please.

[sbgrace]

On 11/21/2020 at 5:26 PM, Pen said:

There’s another “protocol” for early home treatment in USA that I have a link to. If anyone is interested please PM me. It has potential political aspects and lack of RCT so I don’t want to post here.

 

I would like to see it too please! Thank you so much. 

[Martha in GA]

Could you please send the protocol to me, too, please?

[kbutton]

If someone posted this when it was published, and I just missed it, I apologize. 

https://www.contagionlive.com/view/new-analysis-shows-1918-flu-covid19-had-similar-mortality-impacts

Quote

A new analysis of excess deaths in New York City this spring shows that the current pandemic’s peak had a dramatic impact on mortality in the city, one comparable to that of the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic.

Investigators found that while the overall incidence rate of mortality was higher in the 1918 pandemic, the current increase was more striking, given that the baseline death rate today is substantially lower than it was a century ago.

 

[Ausmumof3]

1 new case in SA here with a known epidemiological link.  The main thing of note is it was an eight day incubation meaning they really don’t want anyone leaving quarantine early.

[Pen]

I-MASK+ protocol update based on MATH+ is available...

Besides the Idea of indicating use of mask, the I afaik is for Ivermectin.

 

[Ausmumof3]

I watched the latest update on our pizza shop investigation.  I don’t know if it was just the guy doing the update not being as skilled/professional but it made me feel a little uneasy about any potential blurring is the lines between contact tracing and police operations.  I hope there’s a bit more clarity soon - it may just be that there is so many things that can’t be said publicly that it’s too vague.

[Melissa in Australia]

11 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I watched the latest update on our pizza shop investigation.  I don’t know if it was just the guy doing the update not being as skilled/professional but it made me feel a little uneasy about any potential blurring is the lines between contact tracing and police operations.  I hope there’s a bit more clarity soon - it may just be that there is so many things that can’t be said publicly that it’s too vague.

I got the impression that the guy was possibly not meant to be working due to visa type he is on????

[Ausmumof3]

Just now, Melissa in Australia said:

I got the impression that the guy was possibly not meant to be working due to visa type he is on????

It’s possible.  There’s a number of things that were said.  One is that police are reviewing CCTV footage from the Peppers hotel which is odd because the man in question worked at a different quarantine hotel.  Maybe there was some swapping around of staff or something that shouldn’t have been happening.  They are supposedly only investigating if there’s a charge related to the statement to contact tracers but they have 30 detectives involved reviewing and identifying people in 400 hours of footage.  They’ve taken phones and other electronic devices.  The other two people of interest involved in the pizza shop have refused to talk without legal advice.  It’s all a bit weird.  

[Melissa in Australia]

sounds like they suspect some illegal activity? speculating here  🤔 Organized crime? drug dealing? exploiting people on  visas?

[Laura Corin]

Oxford vaccine results. Possibly less effective, but it only needs ordinary refrigeration not specialist freezers, so could be more widely distributed

BBC News - Covid-19: Oxford University vaccine shows 70% protection https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55040635

[Ausmumof3]

43 minutes ago, Laura Corin said:

Oxford vaccine results. Possibly less effective, but it only needs ordinary refrigeration not specialist freezers, so could be more widely distributed

BBC News - Covid-19: Oxford University vaccine shows 70% protection https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55040635

I have just seen this tweet

I was initially excited to see the 90pc

but then I realised it seems a little weird.  Why would efficacy be so much higher with a half dose the first time round? Just makes me wonder how reliable the data really is but of course there might be a good explanation from an immunological point of view.  Presumably there’s a reason why they did the trial that way.

“Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine phase 3 trial

- 2 dosing regimens evaluated
- Efficacy regimen 1 (1/2 dose, followed by full dose 1 month apart): 90%
- Efficacy regimen 2 (2 full doses 1 mo. apart): 62%
-Average efficacy 70%
-Fridge storage (2-8 degree C)
-Well tolerated”

[Ausmumof3]

• press release here - this sounds good as it may reduce transmission as well which is still an unknown with other vaccines and could make it more relevant to aged care workers etc.
   
• https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-11-23-oxford-university-breakthrough-global-covid-19-vaccine#
• “Early indication that vaccine could reduce virus transmission from an observed reduction in asymptomatic infections”
•  
• 
   

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03217-0
 

coronaviruses similar to SARSCOV 2 have been found in Horseshoe bats in a freezer in  Cambodia and in droppings in Japan

“Researchers have told Nature they have found a coronavirus that is closely related to SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the pandemic, in horseshoe bats stored in a freezer in Cambodia. Meanwhile, a team in Japan has reported the discovery of another closely related coronavirus — also found in frozen bat droppings.”

Edited November 23, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.medianet.com.au/releases/194323/
 

Good news for longer lasting immunity.

Monash University study (preprint only for now) has found memory B Cells still recognised COVID in all 25 participants in a study after eight months.  

[Ausmumof3]

No cases linked to the Parafield cluster in SA 1 case that’s a close contact of someone in hotel quarantine.  (There’s been a few of these.  The others were minors that I think were children reunited with parents etc).  The 30 year old left hospital but a 50 year old has been admitted.
 

Vic had their last patient leave hospital and now has no active cases.

 

re pizza guy there seems to be some suggestion he may have been working in the other hotel under a false name or something but that’s not confirmed yet.  

[Ausmumof3]

Two cases that were previously believed to have been overseas origin have had genomic testing come back linking them to the hotel quarantine.  Meaning they were most likely caught in hotel quarantine.  Not good!

[Corraleno]

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6519/895

Brief article on reinfections. Two take-aways:

(1) Some of what seem to be "reinfections" may actually be persistent infections that were never fully cleared.
"Other coronaviruses can also cause persistent infections, says Stanley Perlman of the University of Iowa. In 2009, his team showed that an encephalitis-causing mouse coronavirus can linger in the body and continuously trigger immune responses, even if it doesn't replicate. And in a preprint posted on 5 November, a team of U.S. scientists shows SARS-CoV-2 can persist for months inside the gut. Persistent infections, they suggest, may help explain the extraordinarily long-lasting symptoms that afflict some COVID-19 survivors."

(2) There may be far more reinfections than we realize, and it may not be a bad thing.
 “I expect that most reinfections will be asymptomatic,” says Antonio Bertoletti, an infectious disease specialist at the National University of Singapore. He says being reinfected might even be a good thing, “since you will continue to boost and train your immune system.”

However, if #2 is true, then it raises the question of whether reinfected people may still be spreading it to others while "boosting" their own immune systems.

[Ausmumof3]

3 hours ago, Corraleno said:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6519/895

Brief article on reinfections. Two take-aways:

(1) Some of what seem to be "reinfections" may actually be persistent infections that were never fully cleared.
"Other coronaviruses can also cause persistent infections, says Stanley Perlman of the University of Iowa. In 2009, his team showed that an encephalitis-causing mouse coronavirus can linger in the body and continuously trigger immune responses, even if it doesn't replicate. And in a preprint posted on 5 November, a team of U.S. scientists shows SARS-CoV-2 can persist for months inside the gut. Persistent infections, they suggest, may help explain the extraordinarily long-lasting symptoms that afflict some COVID-19 survivors."

(2) There may be far more reinfections than we realize, and it may not be a bad thing.
 “I expect that most reinfections will be asymptomatic,” says Antonio Bertoletti, an infectious disease specialist at the National University of Singapore. He says being reinfected might even be a good thing, “since you will continue to boost and train your immune system.”

However, if #2 is true, then it raises the question of whether reinfected people may still be spreading it to others while "boosting" their own immune systems.

I thought they were only counting reinfections where they could prove it was a different enough genome to not be the same infection.  If I understand that right.  That’s why there’s so few verified?  

[SKL]

I haven't been able to keep up with this thread, so I don't know if this has been mentioned previously.

My colleague was talking to a guy in the hospital business about Covid deaths.  My 3rd hand understanding of the conversation was that currently, deaths are mostly from unexpected heart attacks that are not recognized as heart attacks in time to save the patient.  The guy said it was because the nurses assigned to the Covid patients mostly don't have the kind of training needed to identify the issue in time. 

I wondered why I had never heard anything like this before.  Is this common knowledge and I'm just behind in my reading?  Or is this wrong?  Or is it new?

(I knew there was some association with heart issues, but this is the first time I heard it described as the most common way people with Covid are dying.)

ETA I just found this article from 4 days ago that disagrees.  I don't know how credible any of it is ... just wondered what others are hearing.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/11/201120132612.htm

Edited November 24, 2020 by SKL

[kbutton]

28 minutes ago, SKL said:

My colleague was talking to a guy in the hospital business about Covid deaths.  My 3rd hand understanding of the conversation was that currently, deaths are mostly from unexpected heart attacks that are not recognized as heart attacks in time to save the patient.  The guy said it was because the nurses assigned to the Covid patients mostly don't have the kind of training needed to identify the issue in time. 

I wondered why I had never heard anything like this before.  Is this common knowledge and I'm just behind in my reading?  Or is this wrong?  Or is it new?

I bet it could be true of a specific hospital while not being true across the board. Hospitals receive all kinds of recognize and certification for trauma services, cardiac care, strokes, etc. The hospitals who don't have those credentials may or may not have the same rates of success, but since the recognition drives patients to come or people to donate, etc., I would assume that some hospitals have better survival rates, procedures, training, etc. in those areas. 

[Pen]

18 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Two cases that were previously believed to have been overseas origin have had genomic testing come back linking them to the hotel quarantine.  Meaning they were most likely caught in hotel quarantine.  Not good!

that would be upsetting to be considering going to Australia and thinking the quarantine might itself be where one would contract the virus

[Ausmumof3]

43 minutes ago, Pen said:

that would be upsetting to be considering going to Australia and thinking the quarantine might itself be where one would contract the virus

Yes.

I didn’t get to watch today’s press conference but news is reporting that they are now going to remove all positive cases from hotel quarantine and move them to a dedicated medical facility which will be managed by police not private security.  The index case was a security guard.  I’m in the middle of school and haven’t had time for details yet.  The premier said something about a new strain again but I haven’t had time to check that out either.  0 new cases today.

[Ausmumof3]

World passed 60,000,000 cases.  US had another over 2000 deaths day.  The case numbers do seem to be increasing more slowly though that may be a feature of testing under pressure.

[lewelma]

5th escape of Covid from Quarantine into the community here today. This time it was an AirNZ flight attendant. 1st escape caused the 3-week Auckland strict lockdown within 5 hours of the positive test, which then started the once a week testing of all quarantine workers.  Next 3 covid escapes were caught within the week and were all MIQ workers -- all contact traced and isolated, with covid eliminated from the community again.  2 of these came from surface contamination (trash can lid and elevator button). One of these caused a 'work from home' day in Auckland, and a lockdown of an apartment building for 3 days. This most recent one seems well under control and although the flight attendant visited stores, there has been no community transmission yet.  Officials seem to learn from their mistakes here, and are getting better and better.  I think having the facilities under military management was a very good idea.  The Defense Force is great at operational control. 

As for escapees of people - we are up to 13 (with one family of 5, so only 8 independent escapees). They call them abscondees here because they keep saying that these facilities are hotels not prisons. The most impressive abscondee was someone who tied sheets together and escaped out a 4th floor window, wandered around Auckland in the middle of the night, and then came back in the morning.

I'm glad Australia is moving covid positive people to a different facility. We have done this from the beginning and it seems to have worked. We have had no cases of residential transmission out of 70K returnees.  The transmission has been with quarantine workers not residents - 3 nurses, 2 quarantine workers, and a Defense Force worker.  Now an AirNZ flight attendent - but they got it from the foreign country stop they think - will know more tomorrow when the genome testing comes back. 

  

Edited November 25, 2020 by lewelma

[Ausmumof3]

40 minutes ago, lewelma said:

5th escape of Covid from Quarantine into the community here today. This time it was an AirNZ flight attendant. 1st escape caused the 3-week Auckland strict lockdown within 5 hours of the positive test, which then started the once a week testing of all quarantine workers.  Next 3 covid escapes were caught within the week and were all MIQ workers -- all contact traced and isolated, with covid eliminated from the community again.  2 of these came from surface contamination (trash can lid and elevator button). One of these caused a 'work from home' day in Auckland, and a lockdown of an apartment building for 3 days. This most recent one seems well under control and although the flight attendant visited stores, there has been no community transmission yet.  Officials seem to learn from their mistakes here, and are getting better and better.  I think having the facilities under military management was a very good idea.  The Defense Force is great at operational control. 

As for escapees of people - we are up to 13 (with one family of 5, so only 8 independent escapees). They call them abscondees here because they keep saying that these facilities are hotels not prisons. The most impressive abscondee was someone who tied sheets together and escaped out a 4th floor window, wandered around Auckland in the middle of the night, and then came back in the morning.

I'm glad Australia is moving covid positive people to a different facility. We have done this from the beginning and it seems to have worked. We have had no cases of residential transmission out of 70K returnees.  The transmission has been with quarantine workers not residents - 3 nurses, 2 quarantine workers, and a Defense Force worker.  Now an AirNZ flight attendent - but they got it from the foreign country stop they think - will know more tomorrow when the genome testing comes back. 

  

Hopefully they catch it fast.  The other change is that they are having mandatory testing for all workers in the quarantine hotels.

They still haven’t identified how it got out in the first place from the CCTV.    With a potential vaccine so close it seems so worthwhile to keep it at bay a few more months. 

[Ausmumof3]

So we have an eight point plan!  

      

1. 1.All positive COVID cases will be transferred from medi-hotels to a dedicated health facility
2. 2.Security at that site will be provided exclusively by SA Police and protective security officers
3. 3.Staff working there will not be deployed to other medi-hotels, or high-risk environments, including aged care facilities or hospitals
4. 4.Instead, they will have access to SA's Hotel for Heroes facility, giving them the option of resting away from their homes
5. 5.SA Health will discuss the strategies with the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee
6. 6.National Cabinet will be asked to consider testing all returning Australian citizens prior to their flights
7. 7.The Peppers medi-hotel will be "thoroughly deep cleaned"
8. 8.International arrivals for returning Australians will only resume once the previous strategies have been implemented

[Ausmumof3]

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysia's Top Glove Corp expects deliveries to be delayed and sales to fall below its forecasts after thousands of positive COVID-19 tests among its workers forced the world's biggest rubber glove maker to shutter some factory operations.

The firm said some deliveries could be delayed by four weeks and new orders could take longer to process, while sales could fall 3% short of its projections for the 2021 financial year. Its shares were down by as much as 7.5% on Tuesday.
 

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2840CT?__twitter_impression=true

[Ausmumof3]

https://academic.oup.com/braincomms/advance-article/doi/10.1093/braincomms/fcaa205/5998660#.X7vxxN2Nxt4.twitter
 

Only a very small study but 14/18 people in a study showed mild cognitive deficits compared to controls after mild COVID infection.  
 

“While short-term memory, attention and concentration were particularly affected by COVID-19, screening results did not correlate with hospitalisation, treatment, viremia or acute inflammation. Additionally, TICS-M scores did not correlate with depressed mood or fatigue. In two severely affected patients we excluded structural or other inflammatory causes by magnetic resonance imaging, serum and cerebrospinal fluid analyses. ”

[Ausmumof3]

And we have another school shut down after another positive case 

[Melissa in Australia]

53 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

And we have another school shut down after another positive case 

Oh no. I was so hoping SA  was in the clear

[Ausmumof3]

53 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Oh no. I was so hoping SA  was in the clear

Yep me too!  I’m sure some people are wishing they had kept the six days in place now.  We did have cases in school with the first round and they managed to contain it so really hoping they can do it again.  Trouble is people hear the message we made a mistake and didn’t need to lockdown and go back to normal instead of exercising some level of caution.

[Ausmumof3]

So the Woodville high school case from yesterday appears to have occurred from the student picking up a pizza in store.  She somehow must have missed the message or ignored the message that anyone who had been to the pizza bar should quarantine.

There was a second case today that was a close contact who had been in quarantine since then.

The explanation given as to why we aren’t going back to restrictions at this point is that contact tracing capacity has been built up significantly.  

[Ausmumof3]

Victoria hit 28 days of 0 which is the threshold for elimination.  There has been some detection in waste water which may be from a long shedding cycle but needs to be monitored.

Pizza here was pre-ordered and picked up in store as far as we know, meaning a pretty short point of contact depending how long they were waiting.  

[Ausmumof3]

Stuff from BNO from around the world.  I’ve also seen that Pakistan is trending upward quite sharply right now.  Seems like some of Europe is starting to turn around again with new restrictions etc.

11,263 coronavirus deaths were reported over the past 24 hours, making it the second-deadliest day on record - WHO

France COVID update: Positivity rate, number in hospital continue to drop after 4 weeks on lockdown

- New cases: 13,563
- Positivity rate: 12.2% (-0.8)
- In hospital: 29,282 (-662)
- In ICU: 4,006 (-130)
- New deaths: 340

New York reports nearly 7,000 new coronavirus cases, daily death toll at highest level since May

- New cases: 6,933
- Positivity rate: 3.2% (-0.4)
- In hospital: 3,056 (+74)
- In ICU: 628 (+32)
- New deaths: 67

Turkey reports 29,132 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase to date, and 174 new deaths, also a record

Italy COVID update: One of the deadliest days on record, number in hospital drops for 3rd day in a row

- New cases: 29,003
- In hospital: 34,038 (-275)
- In ICU: 3,846 (-2)
- New deaths: 822

Russia reports 25,487 new coronavirus cases, the biggest  one-day increase to date, and 524 new deaths, also a record

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

Excess death stats by country for 18 countries 

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771841

[Ausmumof3]

0 for SA today 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.18.388819v1.full#ref-12
 

Long covid related pre print.  Basically although they couldn’t detect COVID in the PCR a different kind of test showed it persisting in the olfactory mucosa.  It’s a little over my head but I guess shows there’s actually a mechanism behind it.  
 

 

[Ausmumof3]

2 cases here today.  One was a child in the original family.  1 case was in a casual contact who had attended the same English language school as a known contact.  

[Ausmumof3]

No new cases today but the case linked to the English language school who was supposed to quarantine didn’t.  Last Sunday they went shopping and visited eight different locations . Who does that?  Even without quarantine I’d be exhausted doing that many stops!  Four of those locations anyone whose been there needs to go into quarantine and be tested including a Kmart and big w store and a food land so that will be a stack of people affected.  They are tracking people down using credit card details and loyalty programmes to notify them.

 

The English language students are going to be moved to medi hotel now instead of home quarantine.  Also anyone else on that section of the uni campus needs to quarantine.