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Honestly, if I have to go through a few days of uncomfortable symptoms and take Tylenol every 6 hours and the tradeoff is not having to worry about COVID, I could live with the symptoms in the Wired article, even if it's a yearly vaccine. My immune system has a tendency to overreact, so I kind of assume that I will feel bad after almost any vaccine (and I always get flu vaccines on a Friday so I can be pretty much past the reaction by Monday).  Of course, given the way my immune system reacts, I also do not believe I have any chance of an asymptomatic infection, so I am guessing COVID, for me, is somewhere on the scale between several weeks of misery (which is what the flu is if I don't have a flu shot that year) and death. I think this may be a "don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good" situation. 

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DS got home 3 hours ago!  ❤️❤️

Update-  my youngest is not only short of breath, coughing, dizzy, nausaues, and with headache-  she is also confused.  I called our doctor and talked with him and she is going to be going to the ER.

That's not a blanket right.  If my religion required human sacrifice, I can't practice it.  If my religion required sexual assault, I can't practice it. Freedom of religion isn't a blanket right

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3 hours ago, square_25 said:

I’ve also wondered this. It seems like downplaying effects will backfire.

Yeah. You don’t want to give more fuel to the anti vax lobby, and lots of people are skeptical of new vaccines who have older treatments regularly, precisely because of the unknowns. Getting hit with downplayed but notable side effects is a quick way to get really low compliance with society wide vaccination.

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With the number of people who tell me "I don't get the flu shot because it gives me the flu" when they have minor side effects of flu vax, I don't want to imagine the uproar when a bunch of people are claiming "Covid vax gave me covid!!!!"

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Fwiw, I have heard the same sort of thing happening with the second shot of the newer shingles vaccine -- prepare to be knocked down for 24 hrs or so.

Like a pp, if I knew efficacy was good, I'd take a day or two of side effects and get the vaccine. But I also know people who think the red bump you get on your arm is evidence of "toxins", so I know I have a higher tolerance than most.

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3 hours ago, vonfirmath said:

I'm concerned about how the third world countries are going to get Vaccines. (Guatemala, Ecuador, Honduras, Uganda, etc. The places where my kids live)

Call me crazy, but I think it will take a full 2 years to vaccinate the world, once we actually get one.

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12 minutes ago, Dotwithaperiod said:

Call me crazy, but I think it will take a full 2 years to vaccinate the world, once we actually get one.

I do think you're right and I'm so sad I JUST got my passport so I could go to Guatemala and see Bryan there :( and I want to go to Uganda when ebola is no longer a concern. And...

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The flooding in China is first and foremost a humanitarian disaster, but I heard from someone who works at Costco and another retailer that it's contributing to major supply chain disruptions, both in terms of manufacturing and transport of goods.

People have posted here about restocking for a second wave of Covid (or an intensifying of this wave) and the flooding is yet another reason to do. Disposable masks are harder to come by in my area, for one thing, after being more available for the past month. 

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GDP for Aus is down 7pc for the June quarter.  Expected to be 3.5pc overall for the year.  (I don’t know if that means financial year but I assume so because it would be hard to predict what the next six months will do but I hardly think it will be better)

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Worldwide today is at 279,000 which is well over the highest day today.  And India is at 45,000 which is well over their previous top.  India’s number of deaths is similar to the US so I don’t know if that reflects the health care availability or maybe that testing is less available (or most likely a combination).

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Brazil also posted a massive jump in cases yesterday (60,000) versus the approximately 40,000 they have been having.  I’m assuming it’s some kind of anomaly with data reporting.

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Spain also seem to be having an uptake in the last week.  Does anyone know if there’s been a change in strategy/ opening up that might impact that?

 

still well down from their peak but around 1000 per day instead of 400 

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https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN24L2BE?taid=5f163f3cc3d9480001c44c98&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A Trending Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true
 

looks like spain reopened a lot of stuff three weeks ago.  So now I’m wondering what the difference is between Italy and Spain.  Italy don’t seem to have had the uptick

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In Victoria, to directly address the problem of people reluctant to get tested because they don't have sick pay and have to go to work to survive, people in that situation will be eligible for $300 instant payment when they get tested.  If they test positive they were already able to access emerganvy relief payment of $1500 

People who are receiving any other payment, or have sick days available or time in Lou or whatever will not be eligible. 

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15 hours ago, vonfirmath said:

I'm concerned about how the third world countries are going to get Vaccines. (Guatemala, Ecuador, Honduras, Uganda, etc. The places where my kids live)

Yeah, when they talk about getting 1.5 billion doses cranked out, you know that most of them are going to high-income countries and almost none of them to middle- or low-income countries.  It’s going to take a very long time to vaccinate the world.

I live in Africa and the country I’m in is working with China to become the regional producer of a Chinese-developed vaccine. It also has ordered half a million doses or something like that of a vaccine from the UK.  But unless we completely upend a lot of things, vaccine distribution is almost certainly going to give a very clear picture of how the world’s medical systems are built on money, and not so much on promoting better health.  

 

 

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One new case for my state in a stevedore who’s been to vic for two days for essential work.  Now he’s being moved to hotel quarantine, his family and his daughters girlfriend is self isolating.  Health department are checking up all other stevedores who have returned and meeting with police to make sure the definition of essential worker is strict enough.  

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1 hour ago, Amira said:

Yeah, when they talk about getting 1.5 billion doses cranked out, you know that most of them are going to high-income countries and almost none of them to middle- or low-income countries.  It’s going to take a very long time to vaccinate the world.

I live in Africa and the country I’m in is working with China to become the regional producer of a Chinese-developed vaccine. It also has ordered half a million doses or something like that of a vaccine from the UK.  But unless we completely upend a lot of things, vaccine distribution is almost certainly going to give a very clear picture of how the world’s medical systems are built on money, and not so much on promoting better health.  

 

 

Ideally vaccine would hit the countries or specific regions with the biggest current outbreaks first.  In a world where health was more important than money.

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4 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Ideally vaccine would hit the countries or specific regions with the biggest current outbreaks first.  In a world where health was more important than money.

But even that is based on resources.  Lower-income countries don’t have the ability to test at a very high rate, so outbreaks are underreported. And lower-income countries have been affected much more dramatically than higher-income countries, no matter the size of the outbreak. There is no way that the reported death rate in my country is accurate or the reported number of cases, so our numbers wouldn’t justify getting the vaccine here quickly if it were based on current outbreaks.  But over half the population is now borrowing money just to cover basic food and rent.  Most children have no access to education.  Civil unrest is a constant worry.  It’s not just about outbreaks, at least from where I’m sitting.

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So apparently 7000 spaces in quarantine is all the NZ has the capacity for -- that is 500 people per day.  They have looked at every city and every hotel, and are using every single one that will work.  As the minister in charger of quarantine said "we are now close to exhausting our nationwide capacity."  This has implications for my ds getting home because they now have to match the demand to the limited supply. There are about 800,000 kiwis living overseas, many of whom want/need to come back.  Citizens will be unable to book a flight to NZ until they can also secure a space in quarantine. I don't know how they will choose who gets the limited spots.  So I think when I say goodbye to ds as he heads back to the USA for university, it will be a very long good bye. And goodness, it doesn't help to be sending him from an elimination zone to a pandemic zone.  😞 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/421744/isolation-facilities-we-are-now-close-to-exhausting-our-nationwide-capacity-megan-woods

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12 minutes ago, lewelma said:

So apparently 7000 spaces in quarantine is all the NZ has the capacity for -- that is 500 people per day.  They have looked at every city and every hotel, and are using every single one that will work.  As the minister in charger of quarantine said "we are now close to exhausting our nationwide capacity."  This has implications for my ds getting home because they now have to match the demand to the limited supply. There are about 800,000 kiwis living overseas, many of whom want/need to come back.  Citizens will be unable to book a flight to NZ until they can also secure a space in quarantine. I don't know how they will choose who gets the limited spots.  So I think when I say goodbye to ds as he heads back to the USA for university, it will be a very long good bye. And goodness, it doesn't help to be sending him from an elimination zone to a pandemic zone.  😞 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/421744/isolation-facilities-we-are-now-close-to-exhausting-our-nationwide-capacity-megan-woods

Australia has limited arrivals due to ability to hotel quarantine as well

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We saw some friends off to the Philippines yesterday.  It is going to be a long and arduous prospect for them, especially as they are traveling with three kids, but I was still impressed with what the Philippine government has in place.  There are limits on who can get into the country.  Only citizens and spouses of citizens at this point.  Once you arrive in Manila you are given a COVID test and have to stay at a government hotel (3 to 4 days) for results to come in.  If you test positive then you stay longer.  If negative, you are released to travel to your province but you must have a pass to go from one province to another.  Once in their city, they are tested again and have to go into very strict 14 day quarantine at a government hotel.  No going outside even for exercise.  The Philippines has had a lot of people die from this but nothing even close to what has happened in the US despite being a much much poorer country with significant infrastructure issues.  But I firmly believe that it is because they have had good leadership on this and a population that is following the advice of scientists and medical professionals. 

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10 hours ago, Amira said:

But even that is based on resources.  Lower-income countries don’t have the ability to test at a very high rate, so outbreaks are underreported. And lower-income countries have been affected much more dramatically than higher-income countries, no matter the size of the outbreak. There is no way that the reported death rate in my country is accurate or the reported number of cases, so our numbers wouldn’t justify getting the vaccine here quickly if it were based on current outbreaks.  But over half the population is now borrowing money just to cover basic food and rent.  Most children have no access to education.  Civil unrest is a constant worry.  It’s not just about outbreaks, at least from where I’m sitting.

Yep.  Excess death rates would be a better indicator but even that won’t work all round.  And yes.  Civil unrest literally everywhere seems to have been a thing.  But obviously so much more dangerous in some countries than others.  And I’ve heard nothing about the massive refugee camps etc. 

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Spain is spiking upward again with 2,600 cases today.  Doesn’t bode well for what happens once restrictions are relaxed 😞 

South Africa’s official death toll from COVID is 5,960 but they have had 17,000 excess deaths compared to this time last year.

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3 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Spain is spiking upward again with 2,600 cases today.  Doesn’t bode well for what happens once restrictions are relaxed 😞 

South Africa’s official death toll from COVID is 5,960 but they have had 17,000 excess deaths compared to this time last year.

Any idea what's going on with Spain? 

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8 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Any idea what's going on with Spain? 

Well I did some searching and it looks like they reopened a lot of stuff six weeks ago. According to our ABC news the majority of cases are in Catalonia.  Apparently Barcelona has “Stay at home” directions in place though I’m not sure if they haven’t been lifted or are new.  Supposedly a lot of the cases are asymptomatic. 

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Dd#2, d#3 & I went shopping for "back to school" clothes & supplies today in the Big City. Almost every store had a mask requirement (only one city in it has one & our governor is "looking at [his] legal options" against it) and traffic was still much less than the normal that I used to see a year ago. Living in small town USA in the middle of nowhere where hardly anyone masks & life is "back to normal" sometimes makes the pandemic seem far away, but I wanted to share my wins today. I found hand sanitizer in stock for the first time since April & I also scored two containers of Chlorox wipes. (There were more, but I can get by with two for the next couple of months. I had just picked up some Lysol wipes before the run on disinfectants but have been out & 'making do' for a month.)

I am hoping there is testing capacity for all the college students going back to school in a month.

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Ohio finally declared a state-wide mask mandate. For how progressive our state was at the start, it was a long time coming. Our governor desperately wanted people to do the right thing on their own, but it was not to be. I am quite relieved that it's finally official.

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5 minutes ago, kbutton said:

Ohio finally declared a state-wide mask mandate. For how progressive our state was at the start, it was a long time coming. Our governor desperately wanted people to do the right thing on their own, but it was not to be. I am quite relieved that it's finally official.

Me, too.  My county went red today for the first time so dialing back on social stuff again though we really had already done that last week because of a pending covid test in one of my married kids.

My social circle doesn't believe the numbers so in the past few days I've had to decline several  invites including a grad party.  People think we're crazy 😟

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1 minute ago, JanOH said:

Me, too.  My county went red today for the first time so dialing back on social stuff again though we really had already done that last week because of a pending covid test in one of my married kids.

My social circle doesn't believe the numbers so in the past few days I've had to decline several  invites including a grad party.  People think we're crazy 😟

I am sorry your county is red! Ours has been orange, but has a higher likelihood of encountering someone with COVID according to the Georgia Tech map than some of the red ones. One neighboring county is back down to orange!!!

Yeah, grad parties are happening here too. 

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6 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yep.  Excess death rates would be a better indicator but even that won’t work all round.  And yes.  Civil unrest literally everywhere seems to have been a thing.  But obviously so much more dangerous in some countries than others.  And I’ve heard nothing about the massive refugee camps etc. 

And how this is affecting refugees who aren’t in camps (this comment isn’t really about vaccines anymore). Border closures are devastating for refugees, obviously. Some friends of mine were this.close to getting their two young children out of a country that has been dealing with civil war for the last 7 years when the borders closed because of corona. Flights have reopened in one direction, but not the other, and even when they do reopen, I don’t know how long it’ll take to secure tickets for those two children on limited flights with high demand.  And refugees in camps can at least count on housing and education to continue to be provided at a most basic level, even if there’s no work (as long as wealthy countries keep funding UNHCR).  I don’t see how refugee families here can afford to send their children to school till next year, and so many refugee children are already behind in school because of fleeing war.  And getting vaccines to refugees who aren’t in camps?  At least when a vaccine is available, distribution is easier in a refugee camp.

Corona has been hard here.  😪

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4 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Looks like US had 69,000 cases.  When I look at the rolling averages it looks like the curve might possibly be flattening slightly.  I hope so.

If you go by positivity, it flattened a while back. I expect deaths to stabilize within a week or so.

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6 minutes ago, square_25 said:

If you go by positivity, it flattened a while back. I expect deaths to stabilize within a week or so.

I'm sure you've said before, but where are you looking to find data on positivity?

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2 minutes ago, TracyP said:

I'm sure you've said before, but where are you looking to find data on positivity?

Here it is:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states
 

You could of course also calculate yourself :-). I do prefer the weekly averages, since it’s fairly noisy data. On the other hand, deaths have tracked it perfectly. I even have a theory about why....

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Just now, TracyP said:

Thanks! And do tell... I'd love to hear your theory.

As a very short version, the data we see is very consistent “random sampling of everyone with cold symptoms.”

If we random sampled the whole population, we’d expect the case load to be linearly proportional to the positivity rate, right? If one random samples from everyone with a cold, that’s still pretty close to true. Then our true number of cases is actually linearly proportional to the positivity rate, and assuming the IFR is about constant, the deaths lag the POSITIVITY and not the (pretty meaningless) absolute case numbers.

If you take a look, the deaths do correspond far better to positivity than to any other statistic. 

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2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

As a very short version, the data we see is very consistent “random sampling of everyone with cold symptoms.”

If we random sampled the whole population, we’d expect the case load to be linearly proportional to the positivity rate, right? If one random samples from everyone with a cold, that’s still pretty close to true. Then our true number of cases is actually linearly proportional to the positivity rate, and assuming the IFR is about constant, the deaths lag the POSITIVITY and not the (pretty meaningless) absolute case numbers.

If you take a look, the deaths do correspond far better to positivity than to any other statistic. 

Ok, I admit I had to reread a couple times to work that out. 😋 That does make sense. I have been following how you've been linking positivity with deaths. That is a good explanation for why that connection is there.

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2 minutes ago, TracyP said:

Ok, I admit I had to reread a couple times to work that out. 😋 That does make sense. I have been following how you've been linking positivity with deaths. That is a good explanation for why that connection is there.

Yeah, I was trying to understand the connection, and the estimates I get using this model are really quite good. Better than anything else I can do, anyway.

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13 hours ago, kbutton said:

Ohio finally declared a state-wide mask mandate. For how progressive our state was at the start, it was a long time coming. Our governor desperately wanted people to do the right thing on their own, but it was not to be. I am quite relieved that it's finally official.

 

I'm also relieved that we finally have a statewide mask mandate, and as amazed as you are as to why it took so long.

I did notice that the announcement came shortly after Trump wore a face mask, and I believe a day after Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder was effectively neutralized due to the massive corruption scandal. Between the two, I'm guessing Householder is more significant. DeWine may have judged a statewide mandate to be a political impossibility while Householder held sway.

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