wuhan - coronavirus

[vonfirmath]

5 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

That article is misleading. They blame school closures for the increase in youth suicides in 2020 — 18 vs 10 in 2019 — while conveniently failing to mention that there were 20 suicides in 2018, when schools were fully open. Obviously any suicide is tragic, and even more so when it's a child. But there is no evidence that school closures have caused an increase in suicide among children.

 

Totally discounting the feet on the ground (principals, supervisors, counselors, etc) who feel the schools not being open is part of the problem?

 

Edited January 25, 2021 by vonfirmath

[Corraleno]

25 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

Totally discounting the feet on the ground (principals, supervisors, counselors, etc) who feel the schools not being open is part of the problem?

Then maybe they'd like to explain why youth suicides in 2020 were lower than in 2018 when schools were fully open? The fact that people with no training in statistics, and no appparent awareness of what is within the realm of normal variation, choose to attribute a normal variation in suicide numbers to a cause that confirms their preference for reopening schools, should surprise no one.

Edited January 25, 2021 by Corraleno

[Corraleno]

In vitro and mouse studies on the drug plitidepsin (currently approved for treatment of multiple myeloma) show promise as a treatment for Covid:

"…we report that the drug plitidepsin (aplidin), which has limited clinical approval, possesses antiviral activity (IC90 = 0.88 nM) 27.5-fold more potent than remdesivir against SARS-CoV-2 in vitro, with limited toxicity in cell culture. Through the use of a drug resistant mutant, we show that the antiviral activity of plitidepsin against SARS-CoV-2 is mediated through inhibition of the known target eEF1A. We demonstrate the in vivo efficacy of plitidepsin treatment in two mouse models of SARS-CoV-2 infection with a reduction of viral replication in the lungs by two orders of magnitude using prophylactic treatment."

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/22/science.abf4058.full

ETA: I can only find one clinical trial for this drug in humans, a Phase 1 study in Spain with 46 participants in three treatment groups (different doses). Randomized but not blinded and no placebo group. It completed at the end of December but no results posted yet.

Edited January 25, 2021 by Corraleno

[Laura Corin]

From The Guardian. Cases and vaccination moving in the right direction.

[Corraleno]

If this works in humans, this could be a major game changer — they have engineered an antibody that seems to work extremely well against a broad spectrum of coronaviruses, including covid:

"ADG-2, displays strong binding activity to a large panel of sarbecovirus receptor binding domains (RBDs) and neutralizes representative epidemic sarbecoviruses with high potency. Structural and biochemical studies demonstrate that ADG-2 employs a distinct angle of approach to recognize a highly conserved epitope overlapping the receptor binding site. In immunocompetent mouse models of SARS and COVID-19, prophylactic administration of ADG-2 provided complete protection against respiratory burden, viral replication in the lungs, and lung pathology. Altogether, ADG-2 represents a promising broad-spectrum therapeutic candidate against clade 1 sarbecoviruses."

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/22/science.abf4830

[Ausmumof3]

Passed 100,000,000 cases world wide 

[Ausmumof3]

10 hours ago, Corraleno said:

If this works in humans, this could be a major game changer — they have engineered an antibody that seems to work extremely well against a broad spectrum of coronaviruses, including covid:

"ADG-2, displays strong binding activity to a large panel of sarbecovirus receptor binding domains (RBDs) and neutralizes representative epidemic sarbecoviruses with high potency. Structural and biochemical studies demonstrate that ADG-2 employs a distinct angle of approach to recognize a highly conserved epitope overlapping the receptor binding site. In immunocompetent mouse models of SARS and COVID-19, prophylactic administration of ADG-2 provided complete protection against respiratory burden, viral replication in the lungs, and lung pathology. Altogether, ADG-2 represents a promising broad-spectrum therapeutic candidate against clade 1 sarbecoviruses."

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/22/science.abf4830

Handy if it works!  There may be more coronavirus outbreaks of different types in the future.

[TravelingChris]

https://whnt.com/news/man-arrested-in-washington-for-injecting-people-with-untested-covid-vaccines-officials-say/

They say he is being charged with a  misdemeanor, which to me sounds like a way too low punishment.  

[ktgrok]

Ugh, i don't like the sounds of this. I need out of this dystopian plot. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/01/27/961108577/why-scientists-are-very-worried-about-the-variant-from-brazil

[Starr]

1 hour ago, ktgrok said:

Ugh, i don't like the sounds of this. I need out of this dystopian plot. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/01/27/961108577/why-scientists-are-very-worried-about-the-variant-from-brazil

I was just reading parts of this to my family. Uhg. 

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, ktgrok said:

Ugh, i don't like the sounds of this. I need out of this dystopian plot. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/01/27/961108577/why-scientists-are-very-worried-about-the-variant-from-brazil

There are a couple of questions I’ve seen raised about this and I must admit I haven’t been following/reading as closely because things are pretty calm here for now.

One is how reliable was that study showing 75pc of Manaus had already had Covid? 

the second is a lot if studies seem to look at antibodies in the blood in a tube but memory cells making a lot of antibodies might be more effective than a small blood sample in a patient where there aren’t a lot of antibodies left (but they still have memory cells to make them if they get exposed in person).

[Corraleno]

If you thought having a swab stuck a few inches up your nose was bad.......   😳   

A group of Chinese researchers published a study in the Future Microbiology journal in August reporting that for some recovering coronavirus patients, anal swab samples still tested positive after they had tested negative through throat swabs.

“Intriguingly, SARS-CoV-2 detection was positive in the anal swab of two patients and negative in throat swab and sputum samples,” they wrote. “We propose anal swabs as the potentially optimal specimen for SARS-CoV-2 detection for evaluation of hospital discharge of covid-19 patients.”

As for how the test is conducted, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention published instructions last March. It said that a stool sample should be taken from patients, and if that is not possible, to do an anal swab by inserting a cotton-tipped stick three to five centimeters (one to two inches) into the rectum.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/anal-swab-china-coronavirus/2021/01/27/cc284f56-6054-11eb-a177-7765f29a9524_story.html

 

[popmom]

41 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

If you thought having a swab stuck a few inches up your nose was bad.......   😳   

A group of Chinese researchers published a study in the Future Microbiology journal in August reporting that for some recovering coronavirus patients, anal swab samples still tested positive after they had tested negative through throat swabs.

“Intriguingly, SARS-CoV-2 detection was positive in the anal swab of two patients and negative in throat swab and sputum samples,” they wrote. “We propose anal swabs as the potentially optimal specimen for SARS-CoV-2 detection for evaluation of hospital discharge of covid-19 patients.”

As for how the test is conducted, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention published instructions last March. It said that a stool sample should be taken from patients, and if that is not possible, to do an anal swab by inserting a cotton-tipped stick three to five centimeters (one to two inches) into the rectum.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/anal-swab-china-coronavirus/2021/01/27/cc284f56-6054-11eb-a177-7765f29a9524_story.html

 

Honestly, as a woman who has birthed 4 children, an anal swab is possibly preferable to the brain swab. I mean...we've been getting pap smears for years. That's nothing. 😉

Edited January 28, 2021 by popmom

[Ausmumof3]

34 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

If you thought having a swab stuck a few inches up your nose was bad.......   😳   

A group of Chinese researchers published a study in the Future Microbiology journal in August reporting that for some recovering coronavirus patients, anal swab samples still tested positive after they had tested negative through throat swabs.

“Intriguingly, SARS-CoV-2 detection was positive in the anal swab of two patients and negative in throat swab and sputum samples,” they wrote. “We propose anal swabs as the potentially optimal specimen for SARS-CoV-2 detection for evaluation of hospital discharge of covid-19 patients.”

As for how the test is conducted, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention published instructions last March. It said that a stool sample should be taken from patients, and if that is not possible, to do an anal swab by inserting a cotton-tipped stick three to five centimeters (one to two inches) into the rectum.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/anal-swab-china-coronavirus/2021/01/27/cc284f56-6054-11eb-a177-7765f29a9524_story.html

 

Realistically I’m not sure how helpful this would be.  I thought many people did have long term shedding via the gastro route without necessarily being contagious.  

[popmom]

4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Realistically I’m not sure how helpful this would be.  I thought many people did have long term shedding via the gastro route without necessarily being contagious.  

I think that's the same with norovirus, too--at least in adults. Probably true for many viruses.

Edited January 28, 2021 by popmom

[bookbard]

Interesting article today - elimination strategy more effective economically and socially. Points out that Melbourne (one city in Aus) had more actual cases than the UK when they had an outbreak. Now they have 0 cases and the UK sadly is not doing well at all.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2021/jan/28/all-countries-should-pursue-a-covid-19-elimination-strategy-here-are-16-reasons-why

[TCB]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

There are a couple of questions I’ve seen raised about this and I must admit I haven’t been following/reading as closely because things are pretty calm here for now.

One is how reliable was that study showing 75pc of Manaus had already had Covid? 

the second is a lot if studies seem to look at antibodies in the blood in a tube but memory cells making a lot of antibodies might be more effective than a small blood sample in a patient where there aren’t a lot of antibodies left (but they still have memory cells to make them if they get exposed in person).

Also I read elsewhere that it wasn’t a random sample - the people tested for antibodies were self selected.

[BeachGal]

The Manaus variant, P.1, is very similar to the SA variant but needs to be studied more thoroughly which researchers are doing. We will have to wait and see what happens.

***

Pfizer/Biontech say their vaccine is slightly less effective but would still work against the UK and SA variants; however, they can and will tweak the vaccine if necessary.

https://pfe-pfizercom-d8-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/2021-01/Preprint_UK_SA_Key_Mutations_Statement.pdf

Consistent with recent reports of the neutralization of variant SARS-CoV-2 or corresponding pseudoviruses by convalescent or post-immunization sera,i,ii neutralization against the virus with the three key mutations present in the South African variant (E484K+N501Y+D614G) was slightly lower when compared to neutralization of virus containing the other mutations that were evaluated. However, the Companies [Pfizer and Biontech] believe the small differences in viral neutralization observed in these studies are unlikely to lead to a significant reduction in the effectiveness of the vaccine.

Pfizer and BioNTech are encouraged by these early in vitro study findings and are currently evaluating the full set of mutations in the spike protein of the South African variant. While these findings do not indicate the need for a new vaccine to address the emerging variants, the Companies are prepared to respond if a variant of SARS-CoV-2 demonstrates evidence of escaping immunity by the COVID-19 vaccine. Pfizer and BioNTech will continue to monitor emerging SAR-CoV-2 strains and continue to conduct studies to monitor the vaccine’s real-world effectiveness. Pfizer and BioNTech believe that the flexibility of BioNTech’s proprietary mRNA vaccine platform is well suited to develop new vaccine variants if required.

***

Moderna Finds COVID-19 Vaccine Still Protects Against Emerging Strains:

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/01/25/960341384/moderna-finds-covid-19-vaccine-less-effective-against-variant-found-in-south-afr

 

Moderna is already tweaking their vaccine so it will be more effective against the new variants.

https://www.newsweek.com/dr-anthony-fauci-applauds-modernas-program-create-covid-19-booster-south-african-variant-1564215

[mommyoffive]

Just read this

Time to double or upgrade masks as coronavirus variants emerge, experts say

Better face coverings are needed to curb more-transmissible strains as vaccine rollout is underway, they say

Time to double mask or upgrade masks as coronavirus variants emerge, experts say - The Washington Post

[TravelingChris]

I have been doing double masks for a while now.

[TravelingChris]

https://nypost.com/2021/01/28/ny-nursing-home-covid-deaths-50-higher-than-stated-ag-probe/?utm_source=url_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site buttons&utm_campaign=site buttons

And all the media are reporting on this.  I just clipped NY Post because NYT is behind a paywall.  

But I think we all knew that NY's nursing home policies were awful and that lots of people died because of them.  This just confirms it.

[Ausmumof3]

BNO

UK COVID update: Situation continues to improve

- New cases: 28,680
- In hospital: 34,829 (-617)
- In ICU: 3,928 (-17)
- New deaths: 1,239

Vaccinated:
- 1st dose: 7.4M (+283K)
- 2nd dose: 476K (+2K)

Population vaccinated:
- 1st dose: 11.15% (+0.42)
- 2nd dose: 0.713% (+0.003)

[mommyoffive]

The rollout of the COVID vaccines and the latest reports about new cases declining has put many Americans at ease, optimistic that the end of the pandemic is just around the corner. But that may just be wishful thinking, according to the latest from White House COVID adviser Anthony Fauci, MD. In a new interview with MSNBC, he warned that there's one thing that could make the COVID situation worse again. 

During a Jan. 28 interview on MSNBC's Morning Joe, Fauci said there is good news on the COVID front because cases are "plateauing." According to The New York Times, new COVID cases in the country have gone down by 34 percent over the last two weeks. However, Fauci said that doesn't mean things will necessarily stay this way. "I think it potentially could get worse," he admitted.

"The [variant] that is of greater concern and that really could be problematic is the mutant that is now dominant in South Africa," he said.

 

All three variants appear to be more transmissible than previous strains, but the South African variant may also make the vaccines and treatments less effective. According to vaccine developer Moderna, a recent study showed that the South African strain caused a six-fold reduction in neutralizing antibodies created from their vaccine—which means that the vaccine is still effective against the strain, but a lot less than it would be against other variants. 

Dr. Fauci Just Said This One Thing Could Potentially Make COVID Worse (bestlifeonline.com)

 

 

 

That makes me want to sob.  

 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/28/novavax-says-its-covid-19-vaccine-is-90-effective-but-far-less-so-against-one-variant/?utm_content=bufferc1fbf&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter_organic
 

Novovax is 90pc effective but only 50pc against the south African strain

[Ausmumof3]

the tennis here today.  It felt weird to hear them say they hadn’t played in front of a crowd for so long.  Life feels so normal right now.

[historically accurate]

23 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Just read this

Time to double or upgrade masks as coronavirus variants emerge, experts say

Better face coverings are needed to curb more-transmissible strains as vaccine rollout is underway, they say

Time to double mask or upgrade masks as coronavirus variants emerge, experts say - The Washington Post

Do you think a mask plus a face shield would work nearly as well as double masking? 

[TravelingChris]

Just now, historically accurate said:

Do you think a mask plus a face shield would work nearly as well as double masking? 

No.

[TravelingChris]

https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-met-primary-endpoints-in-interim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial

 

I will be getting Pfizer or Moderna, I hope, because J and J isn't good enough for someone like me.

[historically accurate]

3 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

No.

That's what I was afraid of. Ugh. 

[BeachGal]

Although J&J’s one-dose vaccine efficacy was not as high as Moderna’s or Pfizer’s after two doses, for some, the one dose might be fine and for others, two doses might do the trick. It seems their vaccine takes awhile to make antibodies. About 90% of participants had a good antibody response by one month out and at two months out, 100% had a good antibody response. For one dose, that response is pretty good.

As for the new variants, some might need a booster. The companies are already tweaking the vaccines to do this and, iirc, at least one is in phase 1 trials. I believe Pfizer said it does not need to tweak theirs but not sure. Supposedly, the tweaks will be approved more quickly because enough is known about the vaccines already.

Edited January 29, 2021 by BeachGal

[kbutton]

3 hours ago, historically accurate said:

Do you think a mask plus a face shield would work nearly as well as double masking? 

Shields do protect eyes from droplets, so they have utility, but not used as a double mask. 
 

ETA: someone, maybe dmmettler, was making face shields that were trimmed with essentially a neck mask. Those would be like double masking if worn over a mask.

Edited January 29, 2021 by kbutton

[vonfirmath]

Is Dr. Osterholm credible? Evidently he said on MSNBC this morning that double masking could be counterproductive.

I'm not sure I understand the reasoning of the gap between the masks trapping air. I've just figured It could be counterproductive because it will be even harder to get people to comply to wear two masks when we can't get them to wear one -- more likely to pull it up to talk/get breathing breaks and such since it will impede breathing even more.

 

[Tenaj]

1 hour ago, vonfirmath said:

 

because it will be even harder to get people to comply to wear two masks 

 

I was thinking the same thing.     I'm finally seeing a lot of good compliance in most places around here and now they are trying to go for two masks?  My dh and I were talking about potentially double masking though when we are in higher risk situations.  We are statisticians for high school basketball and though we are easily able to socially distance when watching (most attendance is limited) it's been really hard to distance at the score table.  We will consider the double-mask but then on the other hand, it's so difficult to talk with one mask on (essential during games when keeping the books), I can't imagine doing so with two masks on. 

[Melissa Louise]

A full year into it, masks only just became compulsory on public transport here, and a full third of people wear them under their noses or chins. On the bright side, two thirds of us would likely double mask if required by law. On the other hand....some ppl can't even manage the easy thing!

[Ausmumof3]

France is closing borders to all countries outside the EU

some commentary on public health measures for controlling new variants

[Ausmumof3]

3 hours ago, vonfirmath said:

Is Dr. Osterholm credible? Evidently he said on MSNBC this morning that double masking could be counterproductive.

I'm not sure I understand the reasoning of the gap between the masks trapping air. I've just figured It could be counterproductive because it will be even harder to get people to comply to wear two masks when we can't get them to wear one -- more likely to pull it up to talk/get breathing breaks and such since it will impede breathing even more.

 

Dr Michael Osterholm?  He seems to be an epidemiologist?  Or another doctor with the same surname.

[Ausmumof3]

3 hours ago, vonfirmath said:

Is Dr. Osterholm credible? Evidently he said on MSNBC this morning that double masking could be counterproductive.

I'm not sure I understand the reasoning of the gap between the masks trapping air. I've just figured It could be counterproductive because it will be even harder to get people to comply to wear two masks when we can't get them to wear one -- more likely to pull it up to talk/get breathing breaks and such since it will impede breathing even more.

 

The thing that I don’t know why we aren’t talking about is why we are still dependent on cloth masks at this point.  Totally get why they were necessary short term but I would have thought we could have increased manufacturing capacity for proper masks by now then this stuff wouldn’t be needed.  Although the non waste side of me is cringing at the thought of that many disposable products.

[vonfirmath]

9 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The thing that I don’t know why we aren’t talking about is why we are still dependent on cloth masks at this point.  Totally get why they were necessary short term but I would have thought we could have increased manufacturing capacity for proper masks by now then this stuff wouldn’t be needed.  Although the non waste side of me is cringing at the thought of that many disposable products.

Yeah. I don't see what the difference is between the disposable and the cloth masks I'm using. (Other than the waste. and the fact that the disposable don't fit my head as well but my cloth do).

And evidently the N95 or whatever masks they are actually need to be fitted to your face so its more than needing more of them made.

[vonfirmath]

12 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Dr Michael Osterholm?  He seems to be an epidemiologist?  Or another doctor with the same surname.

yes. Michael Osterholm. Related to the Presidential Administration in some way.

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by vonfirmath

[Ausmumof3]

5 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

yes. Michael Osterholm. Related to the Presidential Administration in some way.

 

He seems legitimate although I’m not super familiar with him.  

[bookbard]

Interesting article talking about the way the Melbourne outbreak could have led to a new more infectious variation:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/29/dodged-a-bullet-melbourne-lockdown-may-have-prevented-more-deadly-covid-19-variant

[hopeallgoeswell]

Has anyone else fallen in love with Dr. Lee Merritt?

[Terabith]

I am befuddled that we haven't upped the production of N95's, however, I have real questions about how much better they are than cloth masks if the person hasn't been fit tested?  

[Ditto]

I just realized this thread was started on Jan. 24th 2020.    It is still every bit as active as it was when it was started.  What a long, difficult, scary, miserable year, with no real end in sight.

[TravelingChris]

24 minutes ago, Terabith said:

I am befuddled that we haven't upped the production of N95's, however, I have real questions about how much better they are than cloth masks if the person hasn't been fit tested?  

The ones I have fit very well. I don't need anyone fitting them to me.

[TravelingChris]

Just now, TravelingChris said:

The ones I have fit very well. I don't need anyone fitting them to me.

Oh and when I wear double masks, I wear N95 closest to my face and good cloth one like Happy Mask or a good three layer one with the filter.  

[kbutton]

50 minutes ago, Terabith said:

I am befuddled that we haven't upped the production of N95's, however, I have real questions about how much better they are than cloth masks if the person hasn't been fit tested?  

They are probably still better even when not fit tested if you aren't in a situation with intense exposure. 

For medical people, fit test is crucial. There was a point where my husband couldn't get a mask for work that fit him. He and one or two other providers in his department were in that boat. Eventually he had one mask and had to wear it over and over. He used a surgical mask on top of it to keep it clean/er and changed that out however often he was supposed to (guidance changed a lot over time based on supply).

[Lecka]

I listen to Dr. Osterholm’s podcast.  I think he’s legitimate.  

I just googled and I guess he and Dr Fauci have different opinions about double-masking?

To be honest I would go with Dr. Fauci if I just had to pick one of them.

I wonder if there is some detail where it depends just how they are worn.

Or if they are making different assumptions.  
 

I’m pretty sure I have seen Mitt Romney and Joe Biden both double masking — that seems pretty legit to me.  I think they are both probably getting pretty good advice on it!

[Melissa Louise]

4 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The thing that I don’t know why we aren’t talking about is why we are still dependent on cloth masks at this point.  Totally get why they were necessary short term but I would have thought we could have increased manufacturing capacity for proper masks by now then this stuff wouldn’t be needed.  Although the non waste side of me is cringing at the thought of that many disposable products.

There's a high cost to disposable masks - cash + environmental. Lots of people won't/can't pay, as opposed to can't access. 

[bookbard]

OK, I didn't realise this - they take blood from recovered Covid patients and use the plasma to make a serum to treat very unwell Covid patients. 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jan/30/immunological-unicorn-the-australian-lab-growing-coronavirus-and-its-startling-discovery