wuhan - coronavirus

[Ausmumof3]

23 minutes ago, bookbard said:

Thanks Ausmum, I saw Scomo for 2 secs on TV and thought something was up. I am glad they're doing something. I'm quite concerned that this new strain could overwhelm contract tracing here. There are people streaming out of the cities into country towns for camping and so on - it could cause serious issues. I wish they'd lock down Sydney to be honest, or at least say stay within Greater Sydney - it's big enough, after all! 

Yep!  Same here everyone is over it and just doing normal summer.  Fine as long as it stays out.  Think Nsw had four local cases as well all linked to the known clusters.  

[Ausmumof3]

Over 820,000 cases worldwide yesterday.  US had another day of over 4000 deaths and another day of record cases (maybe some catch-up from the Christmas period?)

 

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

And for some better news

BREAKING: Pfizer says COVID-19 vaccine appears to work against key mutation in variants first found in the UK and South Africa - REU

[vonfirmath]

11 hours ago, kand said:

Is these a specific reason why we shouldn’t hope that SARS CoV2 could eventually go the way of smallpox if enough people get vaccinated? I know that’s a big if, but I haven’t heard anyone address this and it seems theoretically possible to me. (And I’m a bit susceptible to eternal optimism as well as wishful thinking.)

As i understand it is because COV2 has a animal reservoir it can stay alive in even if enough people get vaccinated.

 

[Ausmumof3]

0 for qld and vic and 1 for NSW.

we might be lucky that these leaks hit during the hot weather I suspect.

[bookbard]

Just saw someone using a kids' soft toy as a 'mask' wrapped around his face! People are really struggling to remember to wear masks here in Sydney, but someone locally did get fined so the police are taking it seriously at least. 

 

[Corraleno]

More than 300,000 new cases today, and after 3 days in a row with ~4,000 deaths, the 7day average is over 3000. We have even passed Spain for per capita deaths. 😥

[The Governess]

CA reported 678 deaths today. We are on our way to becoming the next NY. 😞

[Lecka]

The report for Oklahoma today had an 18% positivity rate.  

[Ausmumof3]

I went to the movies today for the first time in a year.  Must admit last time I did something kind of risky we had an outbreak and lockdown so hopefully that doesn’t happen again!  Feels kinda weird to be able to go do that.

[Ausmumof3]

Bno reported a reinfection yesterday where the second infection was the South African strain.  Hoping this is a one off and not a sign of possible immune system escape (is that the correct term?) happening.

[bookbard]

7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I went to the movies today for the first time in a year.  Must admit last time I did something kind of risky we had an outbreak and lockdown so hopefully that doesn’t happen again!  Feels kinda weird to be able to go do that.

Do it while you can! I went on boxing day to see WW84 (which I liked); there were about 5 other people in our local theatre, and I sat right in the last row, so there were no breathers behind me! 

 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-london-cancer-hospitals-nightingale-b1784423.html
 

This site comes up as mixed for factual reporting, but is reporting that some cancer operations are being cancelled due to Covid overwhelming hospitals in UK.

[popmom]

8 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I went to the movies today for the first time in a year.  Must admit last time I did something kind of risky we had an outbreak and lockdown so hopefully that doesn’t happen again!  Feels kinda weird to be able to go do that.

My dh and kids went recently, too, for the first time in over a year. They said the theatre was nearly empty. I was relieved.

[popmom]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Bno reported a reinfection yesterday where the second infection was the South African strain.  Hoping this is a one off and not a sign of possible immune system escape (is that the correct term?) happening.

speaking of reinfections...I'm not hearing much about this anymore. I hope that's a good sign.

[Ausmumof3]

Just now, popmom said:

speaking of reinfections...I'm not hearing much about this anymore. I hope that's a good sign.

The last report was from late December I think.  However they only report on reinfection confirmed via genomic testing and that testing isn’t very readily available in a lot of places.

Edited January 9, 2021 by Ausmumof3

[Mrs Tiggywinkle]

On 1/8/2021 at 10:34 AM, vonfirmath said:

As i understand it is because COV2 has a animal reservoir it can stay alive in even if enough people get vaccinated.

 

This, and I don’t think there will be enough vaccine buy-in for a while.

[math teacher]

I found out last night that a cousin of mine passed away mid December from strokes related to covid. She was in her 60s I think.

[Kassia]

My friend's DH just died from Covid.  He was 56 with no health issues.  😞   A friend of mine is experiencing long haul Covid and has been sick for 6 weeks and counting.  She's in her 40s and was very healthy.

OTOH, I know many people who have had very mild cases or even asymptomatic.  And the dd of a friend of mine had it, but my friend didn't tested negative.  It's crazy how it affects people so differently. 

 

ETA - my friend was told her DH died from a blood clot.  He was actually doing better and then collapsed and died in their bedroom.  

 

 

Edited January 10, 2021 by Kassia

[Lecka]

Oh, my goodness.  Oklahoma has a way, way higher number of cases today.  I don’t know if there is a backlog or something.

Iirc — we have had a few days over 4,000, and today is 6,487!  

[Ausmumof3]

What is added by this report?

U.S. counties with large colleges or universities with remote instruction (n = 22) experienced a 17.9% decrease in incidence and university counties with in-person instruction (n = 79) experienced a 56% increase in incidence, comparing the 21-day periods before and after classes started. Counties without large colleges or universities (n = 3,009) experienced a 6% decrease in incidence during similar time frames.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7001a4.htm?s_cid=mm7001a4_w
 

Impacts of in person learning - this seems quite significant.
 

[Ausmumof3]

5 hours ago, Lecka said:

Oh, my goodness.  Oklahoma has a way, way higher number of cases today.  I don’t know if there is a backlog or something.

Iirc — we have had a few days over 4,000, and today is 6,487!  

https://kfor.com/news/coronavirus/oklahoma-sees-6487-new-covid-19-cases-osdh-releases-statement-regarding-numbers/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
 

“This rise in reported COVID-19 cases is due in part to a decrease in testing and a less consistent reporting schedule over the holidays. While holiday testing and reporting plays a part in these increased numbers, we must also factor in that gatherings during the holidays have likely affected case numbers as well.”

[Ausmumof3]

Qld had zero cases so the lockdown is being relaxed a lot.  There will still be some mandatory mask requirements and gathering size limitations.

A child who had been in Victoria tested positive after arrival in Israel so there’s some contact tracing going on to check on that

NSW had 3 local cases including one who presented at the emergency department of a hospital which had to be closed for cleaning.

 

[Ausmumof3]

I’m not sure if people have seen the report of another new variant from Japan that arrived in travellers from Brazil. There doesn’t seem to be good information on how significant it is.  it does have several mutations some of which are the same as the UK strain.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/11/national/science-health/new-coronavirus-variant-japan/

[cintinative]

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2021/01/gorillas-san-diego-zoo-positive-coronavirus/

Not knowing anything about how this works, is it possible for it to mutate within another species and then re-release (like with the minks? Or did they have it before humans did?)

[BeachGal]

2 hours ago, cintinative said:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2021/01/gorillas-san-diego-zoo-positive-coronavirus/

Not knowing anything about how this works, is it possible for it to mutate within another species and then re-release (like with the minks? Or did they have it before humans did?)

Yes, the virus can mutate whenever it moves on to a new host. The farmed minks probably caught Covid from a human, then infections in minks rapidly spread with the virus mutating along the way, and then the mutated virus infected humans.

The level of mutation is a big concern but coronaviruses tend to be stable. The virus often corrects its own mutations.

Also, as a virus spreads, it tends to become less deadly so that it can continue infecting. If the host died too quickly, the virus couldn’t spread. This is what almost all viruses do although it can take awhile for the virus to become less deadly.

Another concern is ADE, antibody dependent enhancement, which is seen with Dengue Fever. That has not been observed and is unlikely to be seen with Covid. Even so, Dengue now has a second vaccine that is in Phase 3 trials which they believe will protect against ADE. It is being manufactured at risk, meaning they will eat the losses should it not work. (But, they are confident it will work.) So, researchers are even learning how to design vaccines for the few viruses that cause ADE. Amazing.

Edited January 12, 2021 by BeachGal
clarifying

[vonfirmath]

14 minutes ago, BeachGal said:

Yes, the virus can mutate whenever it moves on to a new host. The farmed minks probably caught Covid from a human, then infections in minks rapidly spread with the virus mutating along the way, and then the mutated virus infected humans.

The level of mutation is a big concern but coronaviruses tend to be stable. The virus often corrects its own mutations.

Also, as a virus spreads, it tends to become less deadly so that it can continue infecting. If the host died too quickly, the virus couldn’t spread. This is what almost all viruses do although it can take awhile for the virus to become less deadly.

Another concern is ADE, antibody dependent enhancement, which is seen with Dengue Fever. That has not been observed and is unlikely to be seen with Covid. Even so, Dengue now has a second vaccine that is in Phase 3 trials which they believe will protect against ADE. It is being manufactured at risk, meaning they will eat the losses should it not work. (But, they are confident it will work.) So, researchers are even learning how to design vaccines for the few viruses that cause ADE. Amazing.

Is dengue a disease you get over? or one that hides in the body and reinfects?

I've got a friend who had it last summer and was MISERABLE.

 

[BeachGal]

1 hour ago, vonfirmath said:

Is dengue a disease you get over? or one that hides in the body and reinfects?

I've got a friend who had it last summer and was MISERABLE.

 

Yes, it's possible to recover. The dengue virus can cause either a mild illness or a bad flu-like illness which sometimes evolves to a much worse infection called severe dengue. People can get very sick from the severe disease.

The problem with dengue, is that it has four distinct serotypes, DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3 and DEN-4. All four types are similar enough to cause Dengue Fever but different enough to cause ADE or antibody dependent enhancement. ADE is what is so troublesome. Here's a very general, overly simplistic explanation of it:

First infection with DEN-1

You get infected with DEN-1. Your body detects the virus and kicks in your immune system to fight it off by making antibodies and later memory cells specific to DEN-1. (Memory cells stick around a long time and are basically the "recipes" for making antibodies.) The antibodies will cover the virus and lead it into a macrophage, a type of white blood cell that will engulf and destroy the DEN-1 virus.

Okay, so you survived the first infection but then you get a second infection a few years later.

Second (or subsequent) infections with DEN-2, (-3, or -4):

You get infected with DEN-2. Your body detects it and recognizes it's similar to DEN-1. So the DEN-1 memory cells begin the process of making antibodies specific to DEN-1. But you have DEN-2. Unfortunately, the DEN-1 antibodies do not bind well to the DEN-2 virus. Nevertheless, the antibodies bring the DEN-2 virus into the macrophage, the white blood cell that should destroy the virus; however, it can't destroy the virus because of the inadequate binding of antibodies to the virus. Once inside the macrophage, the virus is able to release its RNA and replicate. This is what they mean by antibody dependent enhancement.

Remember, though, that vaccines are in the works that are working against even the ADE seen with Dengue Fever and that's pretty astounding!

ETA: Some people somehow manage to survive multiple infections. Go figure.

Edited January 12, 2021 by BeachGal
added something

[Ausmumof3]

4 hours ago, BeachGal said:

Yes, it's possible to recover. The dengue virus can cause either a mild illness or a bad flu-like illness which sometimes evolves to a much worse infection called severe dengue. People can get very sick from the severe disease.

The problem with dengue, is that it has four distinct serotypes, DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3 and DEN-4. All four types are similar enough to cause Dengue Fever but different enough to cause ADE or antibody dependent enhancement. ADE is what is so troublesome. Here's a very general, overly simplistic explanation of it:

First infection with DEN-1

You get infected with DEN-1. Your body detects the virus and kicks in your immune system to fight it off by making antibodies and later memory cells specific to DEN-1. (Memory cells stick around a long time and are basically the "recipes" for making antibodies.) The antibodies will cover the virus and lead it into a macrophage, a type of white blood cell that will engulf and destroy the DEN-1 virus.

Okay, so you survived the first infection but then you get a second infection a few years later.

Second (or subsequent) infections with DEN-2, (-3, or -4):

You get infected with DEN-2. Your body detects it and recognizes it's similar to DEN-1. So the DEN-1 memory cells begin the process of making antibodies specific to DEN-1. But you have DEN-2. Unfortunately, the DEN-1 antibodies do not bind well to the DEN-2 virus. Nevertheless, the antibodies bring the DEN-2 virus into the macrophage, the white blood cell that should destroy the virus; however, it can't destroy the virus because of the inadequate binding of antibodies to the virus. Once inside the macrophage, the virus is able to release its RNA and replicate. This is what they mean by antibody dependent enhancement.

Remember, though, that vaccines are in the works that are working against even the ADE seen with Dengue Fever and that's pretty astounding!

ETA: Some people somehow manage to survive multiple infections. Go figure.

Very interesting.  Thanks.

[lewelma]

NZ is considering banning all travel from the USA and UK.  My older boy returns to the USA mid Feb. Sigh. Not sure when he will be able to get back. It is going to be really hard to say goodbye at the airport. 😞 

[Ausmumof3]

Qld had two cases of the UK variant (which maybe should be called something else if we can’t call it the Wuhan coronavirus I guess) in hotel quarantine today.  They must be somewhat worried about spread within quarantine as they are relocating all guests, isolating staff from that hotel and deep cleaning.  One woman in quarantine apparently said she had seen hotel staff working unmasked.  
 

 

[Ausmumof3]

https://secure.jbs.elsevierhealth.com/action/getSharedSiteSession?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flaninf%2Farticle%2FPIIS1473-3099(21)00007-4%2Ffulltext&rc=0
 

A predecessor to the N501 (uk) strain has been found in a patient with a persistent infection in Italy from August.

[Ausmumof3]

Also apparently people in the hotel are having the quarantine start date reset so they have to do another two weeks 😞 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/amp/articles/covid-19-research-points-to-long-term-neurological-effects?__twitter_impression=true
 

paper on long term neurological effects 

[Ausmumof3]

Abc news are reporting that a man was stabbed in the leg during an argument over face masks in Nsw

 

edited to correct an error 

Edited January 13, 2021 by Ausmumof3

[Starr]

4 hours ago, lewelma said:

NZ is considering banning all travel from the USA and UK.  My older boy returns to the USA mid Feb. Sigh. Not sure when he will be able to get back. It is going to be really hard to say goodbye at the airport. 😞 

Vaccines are starting to roll in the NE. I think things will be much better by summer into fall. Hang on Mom. hugs.

[lewelma]

US just announced yesterday that all international travelers will have to have a covid test within 72 hours of arrival. I can't find any exemptions. So even though my son is coming from NZ where we have had no covid since May 11 (except 183 cases in August in Auckland), I will have to pay $160 for the doctor's appointment, covid test, and documentation to prove he doesn't have it. Sigh. 

[lewelma]

I going to add that I think it is nuts that my ds is still travelling internationally during covid. This will be his 4th overseas flight during the pandemic. We have to buy tickets a year in advance to get them for cheap, so we already owned these tickets. 

[vonfirmath]

19 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Qld had two cases of the UK variant (which maybe should be called something else if we can’t call it the Wuhan coronavirus I guess) in hotel quarantine today.  They must be somewhat worried about spread within quarantine as they are relocating all guests, isolating staff from that hotel and deep cleaning.  One woman in quarantine apparently said she had seen hotel staff working unmasked.  
 

 

This is a very interesting point. "Don't call it the China virus" but no such concern (yet --did I miss something?) about the variants

Edited January 13, 2021 by vonfirmath

[bookbard]

I've seen a lot of scientists just calling it the B117 strain. I assume there will end up being lots of different strains from UK and other places so giving it a number will be more accurate.

A friend gave me a pile of New Yorker magazines and there was an interesting overview of Covid in the USA, with an interesting few paragraphs about mistakes made in the development of tests at the CDC in Feb, and how that basically led to uncontrolled spread. Some really basic errors compounded by inflexible institutional decisions.

My sister was in a meeting with the communicable diseases person from Sydney, who is now talking in terms of the next 5 years - emphasising that this isn't going to be 'over', it will adapt and we will adapt. And I was reading about MERS and SARS, so Covid is the third in only a few years really - so there will be something after it. I hope we learn. 

[Ausmumof3]

39 minutes ago, bookbard said:

I've seen a lot of scientists just calling it the B117 strain. I assume there will end up being lots of different strains from UK and other places so giving it a number will be more accurate.

A friend gave me a pile of New Yorker magazines and there was an interesting overview of Covid in the USA, with an interesting few paragraphs about mistakes made in the development of tests at the CDC in Feb, and how that basically led to uncontrolled spread. Some really basic errors compounded by inflexible institutional decisions.

My sister was in a meeting with the communicable diseases person from Sydney, who is now talking in terms of the next 5 years - emphasising that this isn't going to be 'over', it will adapt and we will adapt. And I was reading about MERS and SARS, so Covid is the third in only a few years really - so there will be something after it. I hope we learn. 

One thing that gives me a bit of hope is that the mRNA vaccines are supposed to be very modifiable.  Because yes, likely this won’t be the last although maybe with the awareness and reduced travel a different one won’t get a foothold so easily.  It does seem historically like pandemics kind of came in waves where several would occur close together?

[Ausmumof3]

Tweet from BBC China correspondent 

“China’s Party-controlled media trying to reassure the public that a “major resurgence” of the #coronavirus is unlikely here, given control measures available. It may be true but a/c to official figures #Hebei Province (ringing #Beijing) has had 523 symptomatic cases  in 2 weeks.”

I have also read elsewhere that there’s four separate areas in lockdown so take that for what it’s worth.  It certainly seems like this virus is harder to control in winter. 

[Ausmumof3]

Also I have read that a quarantine / central infection control point is being constructed

[Ausmumof3]

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/14/brazil-manaus-amazonas-covid-coronavirus?__twitter_impression=true
 

from Brazil

“There is no [oxygen],” added Orellana, who has been calling for a local lockdown since September. “Colleagues of ours – nurses, doctors and even social workers – are being called in to perform manual ventilation on people. A single human being is only capable of performing manual ventilation for about 20 minutes, so if you want to save one life without oxygen you are going to need at least three or four people per patient.”

The director of one of Manaus’s most important public hospitals sent health workers a WhatsApp message pleading for their help.

“The Getúlio Vargas hospital has no oxygen and all patients are being ambuzados(manually ventilated). If anyone can help rotate the ventilation of the patients in the ICU on the fifth floor, please, we need you,” he told them. “This is the situation. It is critical. Let’s fight. If you can help, please do.”

Another health worker at the same hospital told the Guardian employees had been too busy trying to save lives to count the dead. “Manaus is chaos,” they said. “We have no oxygen.”

[TCB]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/14/brazil-manaus-amazonas-covid-coronavirus?__twitter_impression=true
 

from Brazil

“There is no [oxygen],” added Orellana, who has been calling for a local lockdown since September. “Colleagues of ours – nurses, doctors and even social workers – are being called in to perform manual ventilation on people. A single human being is only capable of performing manual ventilation for about 20 minutes, so if you want to save one life without oxygen you are going to need at least three or four people per patient.”

The director of one of Manaus’s most important public hospitals sent health workers a WhatsApp message pleading for their help.

“The Getúlio Vargas hospital has no oxygen and all patients are being ambuzados(manually ventilated). If anyone can help rotate the ventilation of the patients in the ICU on the fifth floor, please, we need you,” he told them. “This is the situation. It is critical. Let’s fight. If you can help, please do.”

Another health worker at the same hospital told the Guardian employees had been too busy trying to save lives to count the dead. “Manaus is chaos,” they said. “We have no oxygen.”

This makes me so sad. I spent 10 years of my childhood in Amazonas in Brazil, and know Manaus well. I can’t imagine the suffering they are experiencing!

A friend, who recently returned from Brazil said that it was very commonplace to use Ivermectin there now for Covid. I had hoped that if there was really something in it as a treatment, that they might be doing ok. 

[Ausmumof3]

Here in Aus there’s some suggestion that the hotel quarantine in Queensland may have had Covid spread through the air con and some talk of needing to move people to a more dedicated quarantine facility similar to Howard Springs.  Somewhere that provides individual units or at least units with better air flow rather than a hotel environment.  

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-15/coronavirus-covid-hotel-grand-chancellor-airborne-transmission/13054652

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-15/howard-springs-quarantine-facilities-in-other-states-australia/13058438

[TCB]

I heard an interview with a UK intensive care Dr on the BBC today program, and he said they have been having noticeably fewer trauma and self harm ICU patients during the lockdown. Which is fortunate because of the lack of available beds.

[Ausmumof3]

0 local for Nsw

one low positive followed by lots of negatives for VIC which is probably a false positive but isolating as a precaution 

2 hotel quarantine cases in QLD, 1 positive in Cairns that is hopefully persistent shedding not an actual case.

[Ausmumof3]

Worldwide passed 16,000 deaths yesterday.  Already at 15,000 for today.  US has already passed 4000.  Uk and Germany passed 1000.  US new cases seems possibly to be trending down slightly?  I really hope so.  

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55666198
 

UK ban on South American arrivals over Brazil variant.  Seems to be some concern that this one will evade antibodies.

There is also possibly a new variant in Ohio although it’s not known how significant it is.

Dr Norman Swann mentioned this morning that Novovax are looking at doing a trial of a combined COVID/flu vaccine.