wuhan - coronavirus

[Corraleno]

Excerpt from a rather grim article on the spread of the B117 (UK) variant:

Like a speeding car whose brake lines have been cut, the coronavirus variant first spotted in Britain is spreading at an alarming rate and isn’t responding to established ways of slowing the pandemic, according to Danish scientists who have one of the world’s best views into the new, more contagious strain.

Cases involving the variant are increasing 70 percent a week in Denmark, despite a strict lockdown, according to Denmark’s State Serum Institute, a government agency that tracks diseases and advises health policy.

“We’re losing some of the tools that we have to control the epidemic,” said Tyra Grove Krause, scientific director of the institute, which this past week began sequencing every positive coronavirus test to check for mutations. By contrast, the United States is sequencing 0.3 percent of cases, ranking it 43rd in the world and leaving it largely blind to the variant’s spread.

.......

Danish officials say that at this stage, they are in a race to vaccinate as many people as possible before the British variant takes hold. Vaccinations will be the key to stemming the worst impact of its spread, they say. But the vaccines may not come fast enough: Under current plans, they only expect to be able to begin administering vaccinations at a large enough scale to bend down the curve of transmissions in April, and production delays may slow those plans even further. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/uk-variant-covid-denmark/2021/01/22/ddfaf420-5453-11eb-acc5-92d2819a1ccb_story.html

 

 

[ScoutTN]

22 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

I'd hope special ed teachers are in with the over 50's, at the very least, regardless of age. 

 

In TN, all K-12 teachers are in 1b, with the next age bracket under 75.

[Ausmumof3]

Worldwide the curve for cases definitely looks to be flattening off.  The 20th  was a new record for deaths with 17,484 with yesterday slightly lower but still over 16,000

Edited January 23, 2021 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

For the US the cases also seem to be flattening off or even turning down although it’s hard to be sure with the days being a bit bumpy.  Deaths don’t seem to be going down yet (4,369 yesterday) but hopefully will be soon.

[Terabith]

I'm super concerned about the incredibly rapid spread even under lockdowns.  If it's spreading that much in countries with strict lock downs, how bad will it be in the US, where nobody will lockdown at all?  

Do we know if the UK variant has other methods of spread?  Are fomites a bigger thing with it? 

[Ausmumof3]

19 minutes ago, Terabith said:

I'm super concerned about the incredibly rapid spread even under lockdowns.  If it's spreading that much in countries with strict lock downs, how bad will it be in the US, where nobody will lockdown at all?  

Do we know if the UK variant has other methods of spread?  Are fomites a bigger thing with it? 

I think if I understand right it’s that you need a lower viral dose to get infected so whatever route you get infected you won’t need as much exposure.

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

Excerpt from a rather grim article on the spread of the B117 (UK) variant:

Like a speeding car whose brake lines have been cut, the coronavirus variant first spotted in Britain is spreading at an alarming rate and isn’t responding to established ways of slowing the pandemic, according to Danish scientists who have one of the world’s best views into the new, more contagious strain.

Cases involving the variant are increasing 70 percent a week in Denmark, despite a strict lockdown, according to Denmark’s State Serum Institute, a government agency that tracks diseases and advises health policy.

“We’re losing some of the tools that we have to control the epidemic,” said Tyra Grove Krause, scientific director of the institute, which this past week began sequencing every positive coronavirus test to check for mutations. By contrast, the United States is sequencing 0.3 percent of cases, ranking it 43rd in the world and leaving it largely blind to the variant’s spread.

.......

Danish officials say that at this stage, they are in a race to vaccinate as many people as possible before the British variant takes hold. Vaccinations will be the key to stemming the worst impact of its spread, they say. But the vaccines may not come fast enough: Under current plans, they only expect to be able to begin administering vaccinations at a large enough scale to bend down the curve of transmissions in April, and production delays may slow those plans even further. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/uk-variant-covid-denmark/2021/01/22/ddfaf420-5453-11eb-acc5-92d2819a1ccb_story.html

 

 

This is worrying.  And this is the least worrying variant because at least the vaccines works.

[Matryoshka]

23 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

I'd hope special ed teachers are in with the over 50's, at the very least, regardless of age. 

As far as I can tell, the 50-65 age group is pretty much in the very last group (this is where dh and I are, so I'm thinking it will be a long wait...), so I hope teachers, esp. Spec Ed, get it way before then...

[Ausmumof3]

BNO

Israel COVID update: 10% fully vaccinated

-New cases: 6,159
-Positivity rate: 8.9% (-0.2)
-In hospital: 1,822 (-)
-In ICU: 399 (+1)
-New deaths: 21

Vaccinated:
-1st dose: 2.5M (+38K)
-2nd dose: 899K (+69K)

Population vaccinated:
-1st dose: 27.7% (+0.4)
-2nd dose: 10.1% (+0.8)

[Ausmumof3]

I haven’t read this in depth but sounding very positive 

https://thecanadian.news/2021/01/23/major-breakthrough-large-study-shows-effectiveness-of-colchicine-to-treat-covid-19/#

In 4,159 patients proven to be diagnosed with COVID-19 using a PCR test, colchicine resulted in a 25% decrease in hospitalizations, a 50% decrease in the use of ventilation and a decrease in deaths by 44%. “It’s a major breakthrough,” says D^r Late.

Colchicine works to prevent the “major inflammatory storm” that affects the lungs and can send patients to hospital.

Im not sure if this is the other of the two drugs mentioned in the study further up thread?  I know tocilizumab (spelling?!) was one.  Maybe this was the other?  
 

Edited to add - looks like this is completely different and can be given immediately on diagnosis not just in already hospitalised patients.  Seems very promising.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

I did some quick reading about colchicine just out of curiosity and it has quite a long history that I thought was quite interesting.

from Wiki

“The plant source of colchicine, the autumn crocus (Colchicum autumnale), was described for treatment of rheumatism and swelling in the Ebers Papyrus (circa 1500 BC), an Egyptianmedical papyrus.^[32] It is a toxic alkaloid and secondary metabolite.^[13][33][18] Colchicumextract was first described as a treatment for gout in De Materia Medica by Pedanius Dioscorides, in the first century AD. Use of the bulb-like corms of  Colchicum to treat gout probably dates to around 550 AD, as the "hermodactyl" recommended by Alexander of Tralles. Colchicum corms were used by the Persian physician Avicenna, and were recommended by Ambroise Paré in the 16th century, and appeared in the London Pharmacopoeia of 1618.^[34][23] Colchicum use waned over time, likely due to the severe gastrointestinal side effects preparations caused. In 1763, Colchicum was recorded as a remedy for dropsy (now called edema) among other illnesses.^[23] Colchicum plants were brought to North America by Benjamin Franklin, who had gout himself and had written humorous doggerel about the disease during his stint as United States Ambassador to France.^[35]

Colchicine was first isolated in 1820 by the French chemists P. S. Pelletier and J. B.Caventou.^[36] In 1833, P. L. Geiger purified an active ingredient, which he named colchicine.^[37] It quickly became a popular remedy for gout.^[23] The determination of colchicine's structure required decades, although in 1945, Michael Dewar made an important contribution when he suggested that, among the molecule's three rings, two were seven-member rings.^[38] Its pain-relieving and anti-inflammatory effects for gout were linked to its ability to bind with tubulin.”

 

[Ausmumof3]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/955239/NERVTAG_paper_on_variant_of_concern__VOC__B.1.1.7.pdf
 

Sage analysis on whether or not variant b117 is more deadly.  A little inconclusive but possible.

[Ausmumof3]

abc news

Fewer doses of AstraZeneca shipped to Europe

AstraZeneca said it will ship fewer doses of its coronavirus vaccine to the European Union than anticipated due to supply chain problems.

The company is waiting for the European Medicines Agency to approve its vaccine, which could happen when the EU regulator meets on January 29.

AstraZeneca’s statement said, “initial volumes will be lower than originally anticipated due to reduced yields at a manufacturing site within our European supply chain.”

The statement went on to say that “we will be supplying tens of millions of doses in February and March to the European Union, as we continue to ramp up production volumes.”

astra Zeneca supply chain issues for Europe

also on this there is some kind of weirdness with Pfizer where there’s one extra dose per vial but not all pharmacists are equipped to extract the last of it.  Somehow Pfizer has changed the way they count doses sent to the US so these doses will now be included in the dose count instead of an added bonus.

[popmom]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

BNO

Israel COVID update: 10% fully vaccinated

-New cases: 6,159
-Positivity rate: 8.9% (-0.2)
-In hospital: 1,822 (-)
-In ICU: 399 (+1)
-New deaths: 21

Vaccinated:
-1st dose: 2.5M (+38K)
-2nd dose: 899K (+69K)

Population vaccinated:
-1st dose: 27.7% (+0.4)
-2nd dose: 10.1% (+0.8)

Has any other country come close to these percentages? Israel is definitely the one to watch. Do we know if any of the more contagious variants have been detected there?

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, popmom said:

Has any other country come close to these percentages? Israel is definitely the one to watch. Do we know if any of the more contagious variants have been detected there?

I haven’t heard.  According to Dr Swann, they have quite advanced medical data collecting technology so they are being given more doses by Pfizer in exchange for collecting data that will help with further vaccine knowledge.  

[Jean in Newcastle]

10 minutes ago, kand said:

I don’t know the best thread for this, but Canada is another country reporting no increase in suicides since the pandemic, and they may actually have decreased:

(not to say a pandemic is a good way to decrease suicide rates, but these studies are reassuring that we aren’t seeing a double whammy of increased suicides on top of Covid deaths)

I think that this is important to point out because people have used the specter of increased suicides as a "reason" for not taking precautions against COVID.  (I am for trying to meet legitimate social and emotional needs while also taking COVID precautions.) 

[popmom]

12 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I think that this is important to point out because people have used the specter of increased suicides as a "reason" for not taking precautions against COVID.  (I am for trying to meet legitimate social and emotional needs while also taking COVID precautions.) 

Yes. I agree. It’s also important to take in consideration our elderly citizens who are losing the will to live. I’m seeing this first hand in my family. Those deaths will be chalked up to natural causes when in reality, the lockdowns are definitely contributing factors.

My own parents —early 70s— they both have noticed cognitive decline—in each other. It’s frightening to them. They are physically healthy, but the isolation is taking a toll.

My aunt...I’m not sure she’ll make it. She’s not had COVID, but she has had significant health challenges this year. That coupled with the forced isolation. She’s extremely depressed. We can see her slipping away. Before, she had friends and church and community. That’s all gone now. 

Edited January 23, 2021 by popmom

[Laura Corin]

2 hours ago, popmom said:

Has any other country come close to these percentages? Israel is definitely the one to watch. Do we know if any of the more contagious variants have been detected there?

These are the vacination data by country

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Edited January 23, 2021 by Laura Corin

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, popmom said:

Yes. I agree. It’s also important to take in consideration our elderly citizens who are losing the will to live. I’m seeing this first hand in my family. Those deaths will be chalked up to natural causes when in reality, the lockdowns are definitely contributing factors.

My own parents —early 70s— they both have noticed cognitive decline—in each other. It’s frightening to them. They are physically healthy, but the isolation is taking a toll.

My aunt...I’m not sure she’ll make it. She’s not had COVID, but she has had significant health challenges this year. That coupled with the forced isolation. She’s extremely depressed. We can see her slipping away. Before, she had friends and church and community. That’s all gone now. 

The winter definitely had an impact on my parents.  So relieved that they can go out and about safely for now here.

[Frances]

13 hours ago, popmom said:

Yes. I agree. It’s also important to take in consideration our elderly citizens who are losing the will to live. I’m seeing this first hand in my family. Those deaths will be chalked up to natural causes when in reality, the lockdowns are definitely contributing factors.

My own parents —early 70s— they both have noticed cognitive decline—in each other. It’s frightening to them. They are physically healthy, but the isolation is taking a toll.

My aunt...I’m not sure she’ll make it. She’s not had COVID, but she has had significant health challenges this year. That coupled with the forced isolation. She’s extremely depressed. We can see her slipping away. Before, she had friends and church and community. That’s all gone now. 

Do they talk on the phone or via Skype or Facebook to friends and family? My mom has been through the wringer in the last year, as she sold her home of 50+ years and moved into a senior apartment in another city right before everything locked down. Then last fall she had four surgeries, three hospitalizations, and a stint in a nursing home after one of them because my local family all had the virus and she was too weak to care for herself. She’s been in quarantine at least three times (I’ve honestly lost count) and her apartment complex is pretty much still locked down, as she was in a hotspot for many months. Post surgery she is on a very limited diet for many more months.

But even though she barely sees anyone except at dr appointments and is in pretty much constant pain from severe arthritis and can’t even really enjoy food right now, she spends lots of time talking to family and friends every single day. And gets out and walks as much as she can. When the weather was still nice she made new friends outside at her new place and now keeps in touch via phone calls and notes. She also likes to bake goodies (even though she can’t eat them right now) and leave them outside the doors of neighbors and friends. She’s also still regularly in touch with all of her old friends. I call her almost every day and most other family members, including  all of the grandchildren, are in touch at least once per week. She goes to mass everyday via TV or internet. Her former priest checks in on her via phone regularly. She gets lots of cards, letters, emails, and texts every week in addition to phone calls from friends and family.

I feel very bad for your aunt. Are none of her friends, community members, or church family regularly reaching out to her to keep in touch and see what they can do to help? 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Frances

[ktgrok]

10 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I haven’t read this in depth but sounding very positive 

https://thecanadian.news/2021/01/23/major-breakthrough-large-study-shows-effectiveness-of-colchicine-to-treat-covid-19/#

In 4,159 patients proven to be diagnosed with COVID-19 using a PCR test, colchicine resulted in a 25% decrease in hospitalizations, a 50% decrease in the use of ventilation and a decrease in deaths by 44%. “It’s a major breakthrough,” says D^r Late.

Colchicine works to prevent the “major inflammatory storm” that affects the lungs and can send patients to hospital.

Im not sure if this is the other of the two drugs mentioned in the study further up thread?  I know tocilizumab (spelling?!) was one.  Maybe this was the other?  
 

Edited to add - looks like this is completely different and can be given immediately on diagnosis not just in already hospitalised patients.  Seems very promising.

This is the gout drug. I have to say, very promising. I'm making a note of this and sharing - I think I"d want this if I tested positive! 

8 hours ago, kand said:

I don’t know the best thread for this, but Canada is another country reporting no increase in suicides since the pandemic, and they may actually have decreased:

(not to say a pandemic is a good way to decrease suicide rates, but these studies are reassuring that we aren’t seeing a double whammy of increased suicides on top of Covid deaths)

agree, it is reassuring. HOnestly, I wonder if the number of people depressed due to inability to get out, or isolated, is just offset by the number who now have access to teletherapy who didn't before (significantly less intimidating and more private for people that are hesititant about therapy to begin with), or the relief of not going to school or an office where they were bullied, or from being with family more, etc. 

 

7 hours ago, popmom said:

Yes. I agree. It’s also important to take in consideration our elderly citizens who are losing the will to live. I’m seeing this first hand in my family. Those deaths will be chalked up to natural causes when in reality, the lockdowns are definitely contributing factors.

My own parents —early 70s— they both have noticed cognitive decline—in each other. It’s frightening to them. They are physically healthy, but the isolation is taking a toll.

My aunt...I’m not sure she’ll make it. She’s not had COVID, but she has had significant health challenges this year. That coupled with the forced isolation. She’s extremely depressed. We can see her slipping away. Before, she had friends and church and community. That’s all gone now. 

There definitely is a real issue with isolated elderly. And yet, the people I see who are using "mental health" as a reason to live life as normal are not elderly. They are 30's to 60's, and are not having a nice quiet visit with a friend, but having bachelorette parties, big indoor birthday parties, mom's night outs at bars and restaurants, etc. 

Which of course, has NOTHING to do with the isolation of our elderly, AND makes it more dangerous for our elderly. Sigh. 

If the rest of the people could realize that a 4 day holiday weekend bachelorette party with a dozen people is not a mental health NEED, nor is a multifamily indoor birthday party or bar hopping mom's day out, maybe we could actually meet the true needs of the community. sigh. 

[Corraleno]

10 hours ago, popmom said:

It’s also important to take in consideration our elderly citizens who are losing the will to live. I’m seeing this first hand in my family. Those deaths will be chalked up to natural causes when in reality, the lockdowns are definitely contributing factors. 

The elderly who can endure a few more months of loneliness will get to see their friends and family again — unlike the 336,000 Americans over 65 who have already died of covid, and the 2400 seniors who continue to die of covid every day. There are many ways to connect with others and mitigate the isolation, as @Frances described above.

Millions of Americans of all ages are lonely, scared, and grieving the loss of the 420,000 people who have died so far. Blame the disease, not the measures designed to reduce the carnage. 

[popmom]

 

Quote

 

There definitely is a real issue with isolated elderly. And yet, the people I see who are using "mental health" as a reason to live life as normal are not elderly. They are 30's to 60's, and are not having a nice quiet visit with a friend, but having bachelorette parties, big indoor birthday parties, mom's night outs at bars and restaurants, etc. 

Which of course, has NOTHING to do with the isolation of our elderly, AND makes it more dangerous for our elderly. Sigh. 

If the rest of the people could realize that a 4 day holiday weekend bachelorette party with a dozen people is not a mental health NEED, nor is a multifamily indoor birthday party or bar hopping mom's day out, maybe we could actually meet the true needs of the community. sigh. 

I agree with this 100%. I’m not “blaming” restrictions or lockdowns. It is a tragic consequence. FaceTime, Zoom Bible studies, all the techy ways of staying connected...it’s just not sustainable for a lot of people. For example my autistic dd...her social skills group (her closest friends)—they tried to keep meeting via Zoom, it’s just not the same. They all lost interest after a few attempts. My aunt and my parents would just rather not talk than do FaceTime lol. We talk on the phone or we do outdoor socially distant visits. That’s dropped off due to weather. There’s just no substitute for in person, face to face interaction.

Edited January 23, 2021 by popmom

[Bootsie]

I have had an aunt and a close friend in the over-eighty age category who have died this past year from non-COVID illnesses.  I have another 82 year old friend who has been given weeks to live.  These individuals lost spending the last months of their lives with children and grandchildren visiting, doing activities with friends, and enjoying the things they loved doing because everyone was concerned about "keeping the safe."  

DH has a 91-year old uncle who wants DH to go on a road trip with him while he is still able to travel.  We have another friend who is 96 years old who is begging us to come visit.  It is difficult because honoring their requests, which from their personal risk-reward standpoint--are very reasonable would mean increasing the risk of spreading to others.  There just aren't any easy answers.  None of us know if we just wait a few more months...

[ktgrok]

5 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

I have had an aunt and a close friend in the over-eighty age category who have died this past year from non-COVID illnesses.  I have another 82 year old friend who has been given weeks to live.  These individuals lost spending the last months of their lives with children and grandchildren visiting, doing activities with friends, and enjoying the things they loved doing because everyone was concerned about "keeping the safe."  

DH has a 91-year old uncle who wants DH to go on a road trip with him while he is still able to travel.  We have another friend who is 96 years old who is begging us to come visit.  It is difficult because honoring their requests, which from their personal risk-reward standpoint--are very reasonable would mean increasing the risk of spreading to others.  There just aren't any easy answers.  None of us know if we just wait a few more months...

I don't think anyone, even the most COVID cautious, are judging or shaming 90 year old grandmas for spending time with their close family. I really don't think that is what is happening. 

When people talk about not being safe we are talking about large gatherings mostly, or group get togethers of perfectly healthy adults for fun. There are grey areas, sure, and that road trip is one, but I think most people who are upset with others behavior are focused on the more egregious type things. 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/interview-with-virologist-christian-drosten-i-am-quite-apprehensive-about-what-might-otherwise-happen-in-spring-and-summer-a-f22c0495-5257-426e-bddc-c6082d6434d5-amp?__twitter_impression=true
 

Nothing specific, just an interesting interview with a German virologist.

[TravelingChris]

57 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

I don't think anyone, even the most COVID cautious, are judging or shaming 90 year old grandmas for spending time with their close family. I really don't think that is what is happening. 

When people talk about not being safe we are talking about large gatherings mostly, or group get togethers of perfectly healthy adults for fun. There are grey areas, sure, and that road trip is one, but I think most people who are upset with others behavior are focused on the more egregious type things. 

Yeah, large gatherings for no good reason bother me, especially indoors, crowded and no masking. 

[bookbard]

Six days in Australia with no community cases - but the UK strain has been found in the quarantine hotels, especially with the tennis players.

School is supposed to start in the next week. They've told us that every school (in our state) will have a QR code so if you go inside the school grounds (to drop in a lunchbox or pick up a kid early), you'll have to sign in. 

[Bootsie]

2 hours ago, ktgrok said:

I don't think anyone, even the most COVID cautious, are judging or shaming 90 year old grandmas for spending time with their close family. I really don't think that is what is happening. 

When people talk about not being safe we are talking about large gatherings mostly, or group get togethers of perfectly healthy adults for fun. There are grey areas, sure, and that road trip is one, but I think most people who are upset with others behavior are focused on the more egregious type things. 

I am not talking about people judging or shaming.  I am commenting on things such as we intentionally did not spend time with an 82-year old friend.  He does not have any family that would not require a plane trip or long drives with overnight hotel stays.  The weekly activity that we participated in with this person has been cancelled since last spring, in order to keep people in his age range from getting sick.  He has spent almost a year being told to wait until it is "safe" to see people.  After months of isolation and loneliness, with his life on hold he now faces a few weeks to live.  We might press the "pause" button for some of our activities, but we do not really have the option of pressing the "pause" button for our lives--and that holds true no matter what age we are.

[Melissa Louise]

16 minutes ago, bookbard said:

Six days in Australia with no community cases - but the UK strain has been found in the quarantine hotels, especially with the tennis players.

School is supposed to start in the next week. They've told us that every school (in our state) will have a QR code so if you go inside the school grounds (to drop in a lunchbox or pick up a kid early), you'll have to sign in. 

Are you in NSW or elsewhere?

Parents had to sign in all last year. I mean, I guess the QR code is slightly quicker?

Despite all the evidence coming out of the UK re schools, transmission, children's vectors, the Department here is still stuck in 'kids don't transmit'. 

Gotta hope our luck re quarantine outbreak clusters hold. I'm quitting my job if we start getting UK variant clusters. There are zero plans in schools to manage that scenario. 

[bookbard]

Yeah NSW, we had to do something on an ipad if we had to pick up kids earlier. It was a bit clunky so the QR thing might be quicker.

I still wonder about a few NSW cases that they don't seemed to have linked up - eg the Mt Druitt case. Is there some underlying covid they're not picking up in Western Sydney, because testing is so low?

 

[bookbard]

Wow, interesting article linking altered gut bacteria to more severe covid issues. 

 

https://theconversation.com/a-healthy-microbiome-builds-a-strong-immune-system-that-could-help-defeat-covid-19-145668

[Melissa Louise]

27 minutes ago, bookbard said:

Yeah NSW, we had to do something on an ipad if we had to pick up kids earlier. It was a bit clunky so the QR thing might be quicker.

I still wonder about a few NSW cases that they don't seemed to have linked up - eg the Mt Druitt case. Is there some underlying covid they're not picking up in Western Sydney, because testing is so low?

 

Testing is 11, 000 ish per day. I know they want higher numbers, but honestly, in midsummer with sniffles, sore throats and the like being at rock bottom, and school holidays happening, can't really see it getting much higher. Maybe once school goes back and we get the new round of lurgies 🙂

I just need that darn border open for two more weeks! DD (haven't seen her for 11 months and counting) is due to come up from Melbourne in a week and I must see her! (if only to take down the Xmas tree I promised to leave up till she could visit!)

[wathe]

21 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I haven’t read this in depth but sounding very positive 

https://thecanadian.news/2021/01/23/major-breakthrough-large-study-shows-effectiveness-of-colchicine-to-treat-covid-19/#

In 4,159 patients proven to be diagnosed with COVID-19 using a PCR test, colchicine resulted in a 25% decrease in hospitalizations, a 50% decrease in the use of ventilation and a decrease in deaths by 44%. “It’s a major breakthrough,” says D^r Late.

Colchicine works to prevent the “major inflammatory storm” that affects the lungs and can send patients to hospital.

Im not sure if this is the other of the two drugs mentioned in the study further up thread?  I know tocilizumab (spelling?!) was one.  Maybe this was the other?  
 

Edited to add - looks like this is completely different and can be given immediately on diagnosis not just in already hospitalised patients.  Seems very promising.

Re colchicine:  Interpret with caution.  The data have not been published yet.  The press release stated, "The study results have shown that colchicine has reduced by 21% the risk of death or hospitalizations in patients with COVID-19 compared to placebo. This result obtained for the global study population of 4488 patients approached statistical significance."

Meaning that the results were not statistically significant. 

All that this press release tells us is that this drug holds promise and requires further study.

This article on the risks of science by press release sums it up nicely:

https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/23/colchicine-gout-drug-shows-promise-for-covid-19/

Also, colchicine is not a benign drug.  The therapeutic index is narrow.  There are serious toxicity risks, especially in patients with liver or kidney dysfunction.

 

ETA link to press release.

And to add:  The numbers quoted are almost certainly relative risk numbers.  Meaningless without context. 

ETA again:  Link to clinicaltrial.gov trial information, including inclusion/exclusion criteria (for inclusion must be at least age 40 and have at least one high risk condition.)  I'm not sure that the results would be generalizable to the whole population even if the results were stat. sig.

Edited January 24, 2021 by wathe

[wathe]

19 hours ago, kand said:

I don’t know the best thread for this, but Canada is another country reporting no increase in suicides since the pandemic, and they may actually have decreased:

(not to say a pandemic is a good way to decrease suicide rates, but these studies are reassuring that we aren’t seeing a double whammy of increased suicides on top of Covid deaths)

This matches with what I am seeing on the ground in the ED:  Fewer mental health presentations - fewer suicide attempts, fewer patient presenting with self-harming behaviours, fewer patients presenting in crisis.

Also, not related to mental health, many fewer pediatric patients (especially respiratory illness - notably less asthma, bronchiolitis, croup, flu etc), and fewer injuries in general.  (With the notable exception of tobogganing injuries; those are off the charts this year.)

[wathe]

Just now, wathe said:

This matches with what I am seeing on the ground in the ED:  Fewer mental health presentations - fewer suicide attempts, fewer patient presenting with self-harming behaviours, fewer patients presenting in crisis.

Also, not related to mental health, many fewer pediatric patients (especially respiratory illness - notably less asthma, bronchiolitis, croup, flu etc), and fewer injuries in general.  (With the notable exception of tobogganing injuries; those are off the charts this year.)

Meant to edit, but quoted by mistake.  The decrease in mental health presentations has been especially notable for youth/young adults.

[popmom]

1 hour ago, wathe said:

Meant to edit, but quoted by mistake.  The decrease in mental health presentations has been especially notable for youth/young adults.

hmmm. less stress? not over scheduled? misfits all opted for virtual learning thus avoiding bullies? Parents at home more/more family connection? I can't help but wonder why...

Edited January 24, 2021 by popmom

[Starr]

6 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/interview-with-virologist-christian-drosten-i-am-quite-apprehensive-about-what-might-otherwise-happen-in-spring-and-summer-a-f22c0495-5257-426e-bddc-c6082d6434d5-amp?__twitter_impression=true
 

Nothing specific, just an interesting interview with a German virologist.

He says the middle of fall things will be better unless there are new problems. He also feels when older people are vaccinated and communities are pushed to open up in the spring/summer the spread will be big among younger people.

[TravelingChris]

3 hours ago, bookbard said:

Wow, interesting article linking altered gut bacteria to more severe covid issues. 

 

https://theconversation.com/a-healthy-microbiome-builds-a-strong-immune-system-that-could-help-defeat-covid-19-145668

Considering that many people are actually dying from either their own too strong immune system response (hence the good results with using a strong steriod to tamp it down) or from blood clots which have nothing to do with the immune system, I am not sure having a strong immune system is such a plus.  Take this from someone who has a very strong immune system that needs a lot of medications to stop the attack of my own immune system

[TCB]

1 hour ago, wathe said:

This matches with what I am seeing on the ground in the ED:  Fewer mental health presentations - fewer suicide attempts, fewer patient presenting with self-harming behaviours, fewer patients presenting in crisis.

Also, not related to mental health, many fewer pediatric patients (especially respiratory illness - notably less asthma, bronchiolitis, croup, flu etc), and fewer injuries in general.  (With the notable exception of tobogganing injuries; those are off the charts this year.)

This is my experience too. Very few suicide attempts, noticeably fewer than usual, thank goodness. And yet I can remember so many of the Covid down players, months ago, repeatedly insisting there were more suicides. 

[ktgrok]

I wonder if part of it is with virtual school kids are getting more sleep? I think the early start times of many highschools are so rough on kids mental health. 

[SKL]

Happy birthday to this thread!  It's exactly 1 year old.  Whoda thunk we'd be here a year later?

[bookbard]

 

3 minutes ago, SKL said:

Happy birthday to this thread!  It's exactly 1 year old.  Whoda thunk we'd be here a year later?

And I was just about to post it's exactly one year since Australia confirmed its first Covid case. 909 deaths, over 28,000 cases.

Because of this thread, I bought up hand sanitiser for my workplace before it all disappeared. And extra ventolin inhalers before they were rationed too. 

[Ausmumof3]

Pfizer vaccine approved for use in Australia

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-25/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-approved-australia-tga/13087990

[Corraleno]

(Accidentally posted this in the ivermectin thread, so I'm cross-posting it over here.)

New MedCram video uploaded today discussing anticoagulants. Summary: results of a huge international study show that therapeutic does of heparin improved outcomes in moderately severe cases that are hospitalized but not in ICU, but it is not recommended for severe patients in ICU as there was no improvement in that group and the study concluded that it may cause harm in some patients.

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

Nz had some kind of case outside quarantine (I think they developed symptoms after the 14 days?) that was South African variant so the NZ Aus travel bubble is on hold.  I haven’t been following super closely today as we’ve had fires etc stuff of local significance to worry about.

[lewelma]

11 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Nz had some kind of case outside quarantine (I think they developed symptoms after the 14 days?) that was South African variant so the NZ Aus travel bubble is on hold.  I haven’t been following super closely today as we’ve had fires etc stuff of local significance to worry about.

The case has been linked to the quarantine facility. It was caught from someone on the same floor (they know this through genome testing), but they are using CCTV to try to identify how so they can prevent it in the future with this more contagious strain. The person left quarantine with 2 negative tests and started feeling ill 3 days later and got tested ASAP. Luckily, she was really good about scanning the covid app, so they know exactly where and when she was during those days and have contacted all the people who were at those stores/locations and put out a list to the community. Currently her two closest contacts (husband and hair dresser) have tested negative so they are thinking she got tested quite early and before being very contagious. They are currently testing all other close contacts and we will know the results today, and asking all her casual contacts to self isolate. They have opened up capacity to test the entire region, and there are currently 4 hours wait times.  So far, it looks like she did everything right, and as of now they know of no community spread. This location is a 12 hour drive from me. 

ETA: been announced that 15 of her 18 close contacts have tested negative. Waiting on the other 3 tests.  Looking good.

Edited January 25, 2021 by lewelma

[lewelma]

21 hours ago, SKL said:

Happy birthday to this thread!  It's exactly 1 year old.  Whoda thunk we'd be here a year later?

I think we are adapting to these crazy times. Last March, I was desperate to get my son back when all hell broke loose and lockdown in the USA and NZ was imminent. And now a year later, he will be returning to USA in 2 weeks, having already flown there and back in August and November. Fear and uncertainty has been replaced with caution and risk assessment. 

[vonfirmath]

On 1/23/2021 at 9:45 PM, TCB said:

This is my experience too. Very few suicide attempts, noticeably fewer than usual, thank goodness. And yet I can remember so many of the Covid down players, months ago, repeatedly insisting there were more suicides. 

Evidently it is different in Las Vegas.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/24/us/politics/student-suicides-nevada-coronavirus.html?auth=login-email&fbclid=IwAR0YDMFy6Jx-XBtKKC4fsHsWkjklVR97Xf6gIPqi7mHy4wfRARIe95HnnJA&login=email&smid=fb-share

[Corraleno]

7 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

Evidently it is different in Las Vegas.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/24/us/politics/student-suicides-nevada-coronavirus.html?auth=login-email&fbclid=IwAR0YDMFy6Jx-XBtKKC4fsHsWkjklVR97Xf6gIPqi7mHy4wfRARIe95HnnJA&login=email&smid=fb-share

That article is misleading. They blame school closures for the increase in youth suicides in 2020 — 18 vs 10 in 2019 — while conveniently failing to mention that there were 20 suicides in 2018, when schools were fully open. Obviously any suicide is tragic, and even more so when it's a child. But there is no evidence that school closures have caused an increase in suicide among children.