wuhan - coronavirus

[Corraleno]

3 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

anyone have good info on Lambda? We have it in Florida, so far looks like Delta is outcompeting it though. 

Lambda has two of the same mutations Delta has which help it bind more tightly to ACE2 receptors (the ones I bolded below), as well as a mutation that may help it evade antibodies, although that one is different (F490S) from Delta's (P681R).  

From this Live Science article:

"The variant has seven mutations in the virus's spike protein compared with the original strain of SARS-CoV-2 detected in Wuhan. Specifically, these mutations are known as G75V, T76I, del247/253, L452Q, F490S, D614G and T859N, according to the WHO.

Some of these mutations have the potential to increase transmissibility of the virus or to reduce the ability of certain antibodies to neutralize, or inactivate, the virus. For example, lambda has a mutation known as F490S located in the spike protein's receptor-binding domain (RBD), where the virus first docks onto human cells. A paper published in the July issue of the journal Genomics identified F490S as a likely "vaccine escape mutation" that could both make the virus more infectious and disrupt the ability of vaccine-generated antibodies to recognize the variant.

Right now, "there is currently no evidence that this variant causes more severe disease or renders the vaccines currently deployed any less effective," according to Public Health England."

 

[TravelingChris]

11 hours ago, RootAnn said:

Could the testing rate account for some of this? Or perhaps the people who traveled to the border might potentially have high rates due to the travel itself? 

Mexico has a cumulative testing rate of 67k/million population [worldometer] where Texas has a cumulative rate of 1.2 million tests/million population, Louisiana 1.8 million tests per million population, and Florida 1.6 mil/mil.

But, I think @TravelingChriswas referring to Australia's border based on the quoted post????

No, I wasn't. And yesm testing accounts for it plus the horrible conditions that so many are going too of these people.  Plus they are having people from lots of countries coming.  I sw a whole group of people who were obviously not from Mexico or the Central Americ and suspect they may be Haitians that were being processed.  Haiti's last president who was assassinated recently refused to accept the vaccines that the US was trying to donate to them and I did read a report that they are the only country with zero vaccination.

[TravelingChris]

11 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I am fairly certain the "Horror" being referred to was the Mexican/US border.  Because politics. 

Nothing to do with politics since I don't think this is a major cause of hiospital problems but I sw figure released by the Border Patrol of how many people have COvid and I have heard both R and D people talk about the great hardships their sreas are having of this huge surge of people.  And someone mentioned the cases of TB-  that is an awful problem.  I have to take a yearly TB blood test because of the immnosuppressants I amon.

[Ausmumof3]

3 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Who knows, lol. I suppose I'd like the chance that we get COVID before the kid vaccines come up to stay in the single percent at most. 

It looks like NY is currently having about 2000 cases a day?  So 14,000 potentially infected people at any one time out of 20,000,000?  Then you’d have something like a 0.07 pc chance of catching it anytime you’re in an exposure zone for one person.  Outdoors it seems like it’s mainly an issue where it’s pretty up close and personal.  How many times are your kids getting up in the face of strangers at the playground?  Must admit my kids are kind of country homeschool kids and they pretty much avoid that kind of contact so again it’s hard to picture.

Edited August 8, 2021 by Ausmumof3

[Not_a_Number]

5 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

It looks like NY is currently having about 2000 cases a day?  So 14,000 potentially infected people at any one time out of 20,000,000?  Then you’d have something like a 0.07 pc chance of catching it anytime you’re in an exposure zone for one person.  Outdoors it seems like it’s mainly an issue where it’s pretty up close and personal.  How many times are your kids getting up in the face of strangers at the playground?  Must admit my kids are kind of country homeschool kids and they pretty much avoid that kind of contact so again it’s hard to picture.

I think that calculation assumes a much higher chance of catching it when exposed than I think there is! I think you can just say “what’s my chance of being IN that 2,000?” instead. 

But this assumes the case numbers are right, and I dunno that this is true.

[catz]

I think there is no way of knowing how accurate testing numbers are in the US and it can vary widely by locale.  Some people are testing averse and I think some people just have very few symptoms knowing what some vaxxed people have had during allergy season and testing isn’t easy or free everywhere.   We are currently at about 12 in 100,000 according to testing.  But waste water sampling has us at 55 in 100,000.  That sampling had us as low as 2 in 100,000 earlier this summer. 
 

eta I do like this website for some risk assessment, tries to extrapolate data based on current numbers to a odds of someone with Covid being in a crowd of a certain size.  
https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu

Edited August 8, 2021 by FuzzyCatz

[Not_a_Number]

3 minutes ago, FuzzyCatz said:

I think there is no way of knowing how accurate testing numbers are in the US and it can vary widely by locale.  Some people are testing averse and I think some people just have very few symptoms knowing what some vaxxed people have had during allergy season and testing isn’t easy or free everywhere.   We are currently at about 12 in 100,000 according to testing.  But waste water sampling has us at 55 in 100,000.  That sampling had us as low as 2 in 100,000 earlier this summer. 

Where are you finding the waste water numbers? I wonder if there’s something like that over here…

[catz]

23 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Where are you finding the waste water numbers? I wonder if there’s something like that over here…

I have just seen those in local media/sources, I would hope lots of cities are testing and watching that though?!   Our local waste water processing serves about 2 million people so it does give a nice snapshot of our metro. 

[Sdel]

Has anyone heard of menstrual issues resulting from infection with the delta variant?  I was sick early July with sore throat (strep level sore), sneezing, coughing, fever and resulting upper respiratory infection, and a rash.  Nothing seemed more intense than pervious sinus/respiratory infection other than the sore throat and the rash.  Home covid test was negative. Kids had same symptoms.

 

However, all 4 of the indoor cats all had a snotty nose and the younger picked up a horrid cough.  The older cats picked up a runny nose and horrid cough that lasted for months after what I’m pegging as covid from last summer.  I have also been spotting/bleeding since the second week of July, and I’m not near the age to be peri-menopause yet.  I know the vaccine has caused menstrual irregularities but I hadn’t heard of the virus itself causing it.

[busymama7]

58 minutes ago, Sdel said:

Has anyone heard of menstrual issues resulting from infection with the delta variant?  I was sick early July with sore throat (strep level sore), sneezing, coughing, fever and resulting upper respiratory infection, and a rash.  Nothing seemed more intense than pervious sinus/respiratory infection other than the sore throat and the rash.  Home covid test was negative. Kids had same symptoms.

 

However, all 4 of the indoor cats all had a snotty nose and the younger picked up a horrid cough.  The older cats picked up a runny nose and horrid cough that lasted for months after what I’m pegging as covid from last summer.  I have also been spotting/bleeding since the second week of July, and I’m not near the age to be peri-menopause yet.  I know the vaccine has caused menstrual irregularities but I hadn’t heard of the virus itself causing it.

Yes the virus causes menstrual issues.  It's being talked about all over on the long hauler groups.   

ETA: I don't know specifically about delta. Just the original strain as thats what the long haulers like me had. 

Edited August 8, 2021 by busymama7

[Sdel]

10 minutes ago, busymama7 said:

Yes the virus causes menstrual issues.  It's being talked about all over on the long hauler groups.   

 

Well, if that’s the case I’ll chalk it up to having had the plague again and be glad it’s BTDT.

[KSera]

2 minutes ago, Sdel said:

Well, if that’s the case I’ll chalk it up to having had the plague again and be glad it’s BTDT.

It’s not necessarily that it was Covid. Any illness can potentially cause menstrual irregularities like that. Basically anything that revs up your immune system can cause it. 

[Sdel]

38 minutes ago, KSera said:

Any illness can potentially cause menstrual irregularities like that. Basically anything that revs up your immune system can cause it. 

Well, I’ve never had this problem before and I’ve had worse illness.

[Laura Corin]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/09/face-mask-use-scotland-could-stay-winter-minister-john-swinney?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Face masks likely to be mandated in most public indoor spaces for the foreseeable future. Not nightclubs though...

[mommyoffive]

Florida Gov. DeSantis to school officials: Enforce mask mandate, get your salaries withheld (msn.com)

[KSera]

On 8/8/2021 at 10:49 AM, Sdel said:

Well, I’ve never had this problem before and I’ve had worse illness.

Yeah, I didn't mean it always does for any particular person. I just mean that it's a potential thing that can happen anytime the immune system is at work. The body can be weird. Might have been covid, though. But also might not.

[Wheres Toto]

15 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Florida Gov. DeSantis to school officials: Enforce mask mandate, get your salaries withheld (msn.com)

What is his deal?   Not declaring a mandate, stupid but whatever.   All these steps he's taking to ACTIVELY discourage any kind of masking, it doesn't make sense.   

It's like he's working for the alien overlords who want to invade Florida but want to weaken the population first so they can't fight back. 

[ktgrok]

43 minutes ago, Wheres Toto said:

What is his deal?   Not declaring a mandate, stupid but whatever.   All these steps he's taking to ACTIVELY discourage any kind of masking, it doesn't make sense.   

It's like he's working for the alien overlords who want to invade Florida but want to weaken the population first so they can't fight back. 

Pretty sure he is working for this organization https://buffy.fandom.com/wiki/Wolfram_%26_Hart

[Faith-manor]

I swear DeSantis is taking kick backs from the grim reaper.

[ktgrok]

5 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

I swear DeSantis is taking kick backs from the grim reaper.

That also makes sense. 

[Laura Corin]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/10/delta-variant-renders-herd-immunity-from-covid-mythical?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Herd immunity 'mythical'.

[Wheres Toto]

3 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Pretty sure he is working for this organization https://buffy.fandom.com/wiki/Wolfram_%26_Hart

Aliens...demons...po-ta-to...pot-ah-to.

[Bootsie]

Has anyone seen any recent dispersion factor statistics?  At one time it was thought that about 80% of the people who were infected did not infect anyone else.  I have not been able to find any estimates about this recently and any information whether this has significantly changed with the Delta variant.

[KSera]

11 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

Has anyone seen any recent dispersion factor statistics?  At one time it was thought that about 80% of the people who were infected did not infect anyone else.  I have not been able to find any estimates about this recently and any information whether this has significantly changed with the Delta variant.

I have not seen that, either. I was thinking about that statistic when reading recent Israel data about breakthrough transmission. If I had to give a guess, which is obviously meaningless, I would guess that we will find that with Delta, more people are accounting for spread than with previous variants. Given Delta’s transmissibility, it’s hard for me to imagine it will be otherwise. And just from noticing outbreaks, it seems so much more common now to see these outbreaks where almost everyone unvaccinated who is a contact contracts it (such as in workplaces). 

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Bootsie said:

Has anyone seen any recent dispersion factor statistics?  At one time it was thought that about 80% of the people who were infected did not infect anyone else.  I have not been able to find any estimates about this recently and any information whether this has significantly changed with the Delta variant.

Nope and I have been looking!  We are frequently seeing nearly 100pc spread in families here.  The dispersion factor I think played a big part in being able to control it first time round.

[Ausmumof3]

I didn’t post figures yesterday as it was a rushed mad day but things aren’t improving with the possible exception of Queensland. NSW was somewhere in the higher 300s

Vic has 20 cases today.  A man in his 20s in SA from the outbreak a couple of weeks ago has been moved to ICU. The language from non-gov experts about the situation in NSW is not very encouraging. There seem to be increasingly regional cases in NSW as well.  

Edited August 11, 2021 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

6 hours ago, Laura Corin said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/10/delta-variant-renders-herd-immunity-from-covid-mythical?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Herd immunity 'mythical'.

This is really bad news for anyone who is unable to be vaccinated or for whom vaccines don’t work, I guess. 😞 

 

[historically accurate]

I know Delta is fairly new, but is there any info yet on cases of Long Covid following a case of Delta-covid? Particularly in vaccinated breakthrough cases.

[Ausmumof3]

344 cases for NSW today - 2 deaths (30s and 80s)

And Gladys is talking about opening things up at the end of August?

stats on hospitalisation 

“Of those in intensive care, three are in their 20s, seven are in their 30s, six in their 40s, 14 in their 50s, 13 in their 60s, 16 in their 70s and three in their 80s.

NSW chief health officer Kerry Chant said 57 out of the 62 in ICU were not vaccinated.

"Five people have received one dose of the vaccine," she said.

"We haven't got anybody in ICU that has received two doses of the vaccine."

 

[Melissa in Australia]

11 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

344 cases for NSW today - 2 deaths (30s and 80s)

And Gladys is talking about opening things up at the end of August?

stats on hospitalisation 

“Of those in intensive care, three are in their 20s, seven are in their 30s, six in their 40s, 14 in their 50s, 13 in their 60s, 16 in their 70s and three in their 80s.

NSW chief health officer Kerry Chant said 57 out of the 62 in ICU were not vaccinated.

"Five people have received one dose of the vaccine," she said.

"We haven't got anybody in ICU that has received two doses of the vaccine."

 

Concerning isn’t it. I live not so far from the border. The place is swarming with police checking that people haven’t been over the border. 

[Melissa Louise]

Total nightmare. 

I'm concerned at reports the hospital system is overloaded. I'm not too worried about Covid; I am worried about any other hospital treatment being postponed, or moved out to the regions. 

Gladys' idea that at 50% of first Vax of eligible population, she's going to ease off where rates are low and Vax high ( ie the wealthy beachside bits) while keeping the rest of us under lockdown is batshit crazy. 

 

[Frances]

My state had been doing quite well during the pandemic, but now we’ve set new records for cases and hospitalizations and the Delta surge is definitely not over. The modeling looks grim if the trend continues and hospitals will not be able to handle covid patients plus other emergencies.

 A few weeks ago the Governor mandated masks for schools, but was leaving the rest up to counties, likely due to all of the pushback during the pandemic. Today she reinstated the statewide indoor mask mandate because only one county had done their own and mandated all executive branch state employees be vaccinated within six weeks of FDA approval with limited religious and medical exemptions.

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2021/08/oregon-to-resume-statewide-indoor-mask-mandate-gov-kate-brown-says.html

Edited August 11, 2021 by Frances

[Bootsie]

11 hours ago, KSera said:

I have not seen that, either. I was thinking about that statistic when reading recent Israel data about breakthrough transmission. If I had to give a guess, which is obviously meaningless, I would guess that we will find that with Delta, more people are accounting for spread than with previous variants. Given Delta’s transmissibility, it’s hard for me to imagine it will be otherwise. And just from noticing outbreaks, it seems so much more common now to see these outbreaks where almost everyone unvaccinated who is a contact contracts it (such as in workplaces). 

I find it hard to know what to think about disperson given that almost everyone unvaccinated in a place becomes ill.  It makes a big difference if 90% of the time people are in a workplace with exposure that happens or if 10% of the time in happens but those are the noted cases and the other 90% of the time we just don't know about it.  

[Bootsie]

10 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Nope and I have been looking!  We are frequently seeing nearly 100pc spread in families here.  The dispersion factor I think played a big part in being able to control it first time round.

I thought the idea wa that a high dispersion factor make it harder to control, making the impact of control factors much more random.  If you had a low dispersion factor and could contact trace 80% of cases you were able to stop tramission of 80% of the cases.  But,, with a high dispersion factor you could contact trace and isolate 80% of the cases and not influece spread much at all if you weren't lucky enough to catch that one case that caused 80% of the spread.  

[Ausmumof3]

8 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

I thought the idea wa that a high dispersion factor make it harder to control, making the impact of control factors much more random.  If you had a low dispersion factor and could contact trace 80% of cases you were able to stop tramission of 80% of the cases.  But,, with a high dispersion factor you could contact trace and isolate 80% of the cases and not influece spread much at all if you weren't lucky enough to catch that one case that caused 80% of the spread.  

High dispersion rate means limiting contacts between people so more effective.  If everyone spreads evenly to three people cutting down big events etc does nothing because it’s going to move while shopping etc.  but because it relies on super spread events and others not to spread reducing crowd sizes etc can help.  

[Ausmumof3]

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33741734/ 

@BootsieI haven’t read this specific study but it’s the same idea 

[Bootsie]

39 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33741734/ 

@BootsieI haven’t read this specific study but it’s the same idea 

Thanks for the link.  I read the article to say that reducing nonrepetitive contacts is more impactful when there is a high dispersion factor (like COVID) than with a low dispersion factor (like influenza).  So, limiting large events like concerts has a greater impact with reducing COVID spread relative to the imapct it would had in reducing influenza spread.  

But, I think it has made some other methods, such as contract tracing and isolation, less effective than hoped for (but this wasn't addressed in this article).  I think it meant that at first it made it diffiuclt to understand how the disease was spread.  I think it has also led to some of the problems in providing medical services.  If a small area happens to get a couple of the cases that fuel a lot of cases the medical resources in that community are extremely strained and cases can increase much more quickly than the average in those area.

[Longtime Lurker]

6 hours ago, Frances said:

A few weeks ago the Governor mandated masks for schools, but was leaving the rest up to counties, likely due to all of the pushback during the pandemic. Today she reinstated the statewide indoor mask mandate because only one county had done their own and mandated all executive branch state employees be vaccinated within six weeks of FDA approval with limited religious and medical exemptions.

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2021/08/oregon-to-resume-statewide-indoor-mask-mandate-gov-kate-brown-says.html

The mask mandates are good at least. I wish my state had a mask mandate. Or even just a mandate for schools...

[vonfirmath]

2 hours ago, Bootsie said:

I find it hard to know what to think about disperson given that almost everyone unvaccinated in a place becomes ill.  It makes a big difference if 90% of the time people are in a workplace with exposure that happens or if 10% of the time in happens but those are the noted cases and the other 90% of the time we just don't know about it.  

I know we had a case at work in our BIM department (who all work in an enclosed space) and no one else caught it despite none of them being vaccinated.

[Kanin]

24 minutes ago, Longtime Lurker said:

The mask mandates are good at least. I wish my state had a mask mandate. Or even just a mandate for schools...

Schools without a mandate are going to be a disaster, right? I wonder what they'll say when it is...

[Longtime Lurker]

9 minutes ago, Kanin said:

Schools without a mandate are going to be a disaster, right? I wonder what they'll say when it is...

I don't know. I hope not, but delta is a real game-changer. Disaster was predicted when we went back in-person last fall and it didn't happen. But then we had universal required masking. Delta plus optional masking doesn't seem like a good combination. Plus, all our teachers got vaxxed as soon as they were eligible last winter so many are reaching the 6-month mark.

[KSera]

2 hours ago, vonfirmath said:

I know we had a case at work in our BIM department (who all work in an enclosed space) and no one else caught it despite none of them being vaccinated.

How long ago was that?

[vonfirmath]

12 minutes ago, KSera said:

How long ago was that?

2-3 weeks. 3rd week July

[RootAnn]

My brother tested positive less than two weeks ago. Of the other four people in his household, only one other tested positive (so far, I guess). All of them were presumed to have had covid in December/January. (They didn't test the toddler but assume he had it based on symptoms.) Both are doing OK. My bro is still a bit tired.

[Ausmumof3]

345 cases for NSW

10 for QLD all in home or hotel quarantine.

21 for VIC

1 for ACT and they are going into 7 day lockdown.

SA is opening up bookings to under 40s although the doses won’t be available till September. Apparently there’s a fairly clear timeline for delivery now though. 

Our royal show has been cancelled which seems like commonsense.  

[Ausmumof3]

also not Australia but Timore-Leste have had their first case of community transmission for Delta.

Edited August 12, 2021 by Ausmumof3

[Melissa Louise]

37 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

also not Australia but Timore-Leste have had their first case of community transmission for Delta.

No! 

Not good. 

[lewelma]

We were warned yesterday, that the government will lock down hard and fast if we see even one case of delta here. They have told us to get ready because it may be the whole country.  I just went out and bought toilet paper, flour, and yeast. 🙂 They have said that the lockdown will be even stricter than our super strict lockdown 15 months ago. Basically, eveyone will be sent home with the exception of only food and medical. So the ports will close, the mail will stop, all internet shopping will cease, all tradies will stop working, all daycare will cease even for essential workers. They said that they will even close some essential services. Not sure what that means, but they are very clear that they don't want a repeat of NSW. The plan is hard and fast. We just have to last about 4 more months until the vaccine rollout is done. 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/448990/strict-lockdown-right-approach-to-delta-variant-covid-19-modeller

Edited August 12, 2021 by lewelma

[Melissa Louise]

40 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

345 cases for NSW

10 for QLD all in home or hotel quarantine.

21 for VIC

1 for ACT and they are going into 7 day lockdown.

SA is opening up bookings to under 40s although the doses won’t be available till September. Apparently there’s a fairly clear timeline for delivery now though. 

Our royal show has been cancelled which seems like commonsense.  

I'm astounded that every week the numbers here go up into the next hundred, and nothing about the settings changes substantially. The curve isn't even starting to flatten. 

[lewelma]

Fiji is looking really bad. Sounds like they have given up all contact tracing and testing.