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Has anyone seen any recent dispersion factor statistics?  At one time it was thought that about 80% of the people who were infected did not infect anyone else.  I have not been able to find any estimates about this recently and any information whether this has significantly changed with the Delta variant.

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11 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

Has anyone seen any recent dispersion factor statistics?  At one time it was thought that about 80% of the people who were infected did not infect anyone else.  I have not been able to find any estimates about this recently and any information whether this has significantly changed with the Delta variant.

I have not seen that, either. I was thinking about that statistic when reading recent Israel data about breakthrough transmission. If I had to give a guess, which is obviously meaningless, I would guess that we will find that with Delta, more people are accounting for spread than with previous variants. Given Delta’s transmissibility, it’s hard for me to imagine it will be otherwise. And just from noticing outbreaks, it seems so much more common now to see these outbreaks where almost everyone unvaccinated who is a contact contracts it (such as in workplaces). 

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1 hour ago, Bootsie said:

Has anyone seen any recent dispersion factor statistics?  At one time it was thought that about 80% of the people who were infected did not infect anyone else.  I have not been able to find any estimates about this recently and any information whether this has significantly changed with the Delta variant.

Nope and I have been looking!  We are frequently seeing nearly 100pc spread in families here.  The dispersion factor I think played a big part in being able to control it first time round.

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I didn’t post figures yesterday as it was a rushed mad day but things aren’t improving with the possible exception of Queensland. NSW was somewhere in the higher 300s

Vic has 20 cases today.  A man in his 20s in SA from the outbreak a couple of weeks ago has been moved to ICU. The language from non-gov experts about the situation in NSW is not very encouraging. There seem to be increasingly regional cases in NSW as well.  

Edited by Ausmumof3
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344 cases for NSW today - 2 deaths (30s and 80s)

And Gladys is talking about opening things up at the end of August?

stats on hospitalisation 

“Of those in intensive care, three are in their 20s, seven are in their 30s, six in their 40s, 14 in their 50s, 13 in their 60s, 16 in their 70s and three in their 80s.

NSW chief health officer Kerry Chant said 57 out of the 62 in ICU were not vaccinated.

"Five people have received one dose of the vaccine," she said.

"We haven't got anybody in ICU that has received two doses of the vaccine."

 

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11 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

344 cases for NSW today - 2 deaths (30s and 80s)

And Gladys is talking about opening things up at the end of August?

stats on hospitalisation 

“Of those in intensive care, three are in their 20s, seven are in their 30s, six in their 40s, 14 in their 50s, 13 in their 60s, 16 in their 70s and three in their 80s.

NSW chief health officer Kerry Chant said 57 out of the 62 in ICU were not vaccinated.

"Five people have received one dose of the vaccine," she said.

"We haven't got anybody in ICU that has received two doses of the vaccine."

 

Concerning isn’t it. I live not so far from the border. The place is swarming with police checking that people haven’t been over the border. 

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Total nightmare. 

I'm concerned at reports the hospital system is overloaded. I'm not too worried about Covid; I am worried about any other hospital treatment being postponed, or moved out to the regions. 

Gladys' idea that at 50% of first Vax of eligible population, she's going to ease off where rates are low and Vax high ( ie the wealthy beachside bits) while keeping the rest of us under lockdown is batshit crazy. 

 

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My state had been doing quite well during the pandemic, but now we’ve set new records for cases and hospitalizations and the Delta surge is definitely not over. The modeling looks grim if the trend continues and hospitals will not be able to handle covid patients plus other emergencies.

 A few weeks ago the Governor mandated masks for schools, but was leaving the rest up to counties, likely due to all of the pushback during the pandemic. Today she reinstated the statewide indoor mask mandate because only one county had done their own and mandated all executive branch state employees be vaccinated within six weeks of FDA approval with limited religious and medical exemptions.

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2021/08/oregon-to-resume-statewide-indoor-mask-mandate-gov-kate-brown-says.html

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11 hours ago, KSera said:

I have not seen that, either. I was thinking about that statistic when reading recent Israel data about breakthrough transmission. If I had to give a guess, which is obviously meaningless, I would guess that we will find that with Delta, more people are accounting for spread than with previous variants. Given Delta’s transmissibility, it’s hard for me to imagine it will be otherwise. And just from noticing outbreaks, it seems so much more common now to see these outbreaks where almost everyone unvaccinated who is a contact contracts it (such as in workplaces). 

I find it hard to know what to think about disperson given that almost everyone unvaccinated in a place becomes ill.  It makes a big difference if 90% of the time people are in a workplace with exposure that happens or if 10% of the time in happens but those are the noted cases and the other 90% of the time we just don't know about it.  

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10 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Nope and I have been looking!  We are frequently seeing nearly 100pc spread in families here.  The dispersion factor I think played a big part in being able to control it first time round.

I thought the idea wa that a high dispersion factor make it harder to control, making the impact of control factors much more random.  If you had a low dispersion factor and could contact trace 80% of cases you were able to stop tramission of 80% of the cases.  But,, with a high dispersion factor you could contact trace and isolate 80% of the cases and not influece spread much at all if you weren't lucky enough to catch that one case that caused 80% of the spread.  

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8 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

I thought the idea wa that a high dispersion factor make it harder to control, making the impact of control factors much more random.  If you had a low dispersion factor and could contact trace 80% of cases you were able to stop tramission of 80% of the cases.  But,, with a high dispersion factor you could contact trace and isolate 80% of the cases and not influece spread much at all if you weren't lucky enough to catch that one case that caused 80% of the spread.  

High dispersion rate means limiting contacts between people so more effective.  If everyone spreads evenly to three people cutting down big events etc does nothing because it’s going to move while shopping etc.  but because it relies on super spread events and others not to spread reducing crowd sizes etc can help.  

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39 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33741734/ 

@BootsieI haven’t read this specific study but it’s the same idea 

Thanks for the link.  I read the article to say that reducing nonrepetitive contacts is more impactful when there is a high dispersion factor (like COVID) than with a low dispersion factor (like influenza).  So, limiting large events like concerts has a greater impact with reducing COVID spread relative to the imapct it would had in reducing influenza spread.  

But, I think it has made some other methods, such as contract tracing and isolation, less effective than hoped for (but this wasn't addressed in this article).  I think it meant that at first it made it diffiuclt to understand how the disease was spread.  I think it has also led to some of the problems in providing medical services.  If a small area happens to get a couple of the cases that fuel a lot of cases the medical resources in that community are extremely strained and cases can increase much more quickly than the average in those area.

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6 hours ago, Frances said:

A few weeks ago the Governor mandated masks for schools, but was leaving the rest up to counties, likely due to all of the pushback during the pandemic. Today she reinstated the statewide indoor mask mandate because only one county had done their own and mandated all executive branch state employees be vaccinated within six weeks of FDA approval with limited religious and medical exemptions.

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2021/08/oregon-to-resume-statewide-indoor-mask-mandate-gov-kate-brown-says.html

The mask mandates are good at least. I wish my state had a mask mandate. Or even just a mandate for schools...

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2 hours ago, Bootsie said:

I find it hard to know what to think about disperson given that almost everyone unvaccinated in a place becomes ill.  It makes a big difference if 90% of the time people are in a workplace with exposure that happens or if 10% of the time in happens but those are the noted cases and the other 90% of the time we just don't know about it.  

I know we had a case at work in our BIM department (who all work in an enclosed space) and no one else caught it despite none of them being vaccinated.

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24 minutes ago, Longtime Lurker said:

The mask mandates are good at least. I wish my state had a mask mandate. Or even just a mandate for schools...

Schools without a mandate are going to be a disaster, right? I wonder what they'll say when it is...

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9 minutes ago, Kanin said:

Schools without a mandate are going to be a disaster, right? I wonder what they'll say when it is...

I don't know. I hope not, but delta is a real game-changer. Disaster was predicted when we went back in-person last fall and it didn't happen. But then we had universal required masking. Delta plus optional masking doesn't seem like a good combination. Plus, all our teachers got vaxxed as soon as they were eligible last winter so many are reaching the 6-month mark.

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2 hours ago, vonfirmath said:

I know we had a case at work in our BIM department (who all work in an enclosed space) and no one else caught it despite none of them being vaccinated.

How long ago was that?

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My brother tested positive less than two weeks ago. Of the other four people in his household, only one other tested positive (so far, I guess). All of them were presumed to have had covid in December/January. (They didn't test the toddler but assume he had it based on symptoms.) Both are doing OK. My bro is still a bit tired.

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345 cases for NSW

10 for QLD all in home or hotel quarantine.

21 for VIC

1 for ACT and they are going into 7 day lockdown.

SA is opening up bookings to under 40s although the doses won’t be available till September. Apparently there’s a fairly clear timeline for delivery now though. 

Our royal show has been cancelled which seems like commonsense.  

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We were warned yesterday, that the government will lock down hard and fast if we see even one case of delta here. They have told us to get ready because it may be the whole country.  I just went out and bought toilet paper, flour, and yeast. 🙂 They have said that the lockdown will be even stricter than our super strict lockdown 15 months ago. Basically, eveyone will be sent home with the exception of only food and medical. So the ports will close, the mail will stop, all internet shopping will cease, all tradies will stop working, all daycare will cease even for essential workers. They said that they will even close some essential services. Not sure what that means, but they are very clear that they don't want a repeat of NSW. The plan is hard and fast. We just have to last about 4 more months until the vaccine rollout is done. 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/448990/strict-lockdown-right-approach-to-delta-variant-covid-19-modeller

Edited by lewelma
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40 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

345 cases for NSW

10 for QLD all in home or hotel quarantine.

21 for VIC

1 for ACT and they are going into 7 day lockdown.

SA is opening up bookings to under 40s although the doses won’t be available till September. Apparently there’s a fairly clear timeline for delivery now though. 

Our royal show has been cancelled which seems like commonsense.  

I'm astounded that every week the numbers here go up into the next hundred, and nothing about the settings changes substantially. The curve isn't even starting to flatten. 

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2 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

I'm astounded that every week the numbers here go up into the next hundred, and nothing about the settings changes substantially. The curve isn't even starting to flatten. 

Well, it is only going up linearly. It is not an exponential. So the lockdown is effective, just not enough.

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22 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

What I am worried about is how it is seeping into so many rural areas of NSW.

How are hospitals in regional areas?  Here some major towns struggle to even retain a GP let alone staff a hospital.

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I made a mistake - we are getting 'more police compliance'. That's what's happening to stop us (theoretically, because we're on the up) from hitting 400 cases a day, and then 500, and then...

Funnily, the only cops I have seen around here are the two who get charcoal chicken for their lunch, around the corner 🙂 I think they're all at the non-Paris end of the LGA. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

A man in his 90s in NSW who was fully vaccinated has died after contracting COVID.  
 

I guess we expect some given that it’s somewhere between 90-99 pc successful against severe Covid but it’s disappointing still.

I would suspect that a lot of that has to do with him being in his 90's.  (But I do understand that this is still a tragedy.)

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5 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I would suspect that a lot of that has to do with him being in his 90's.  (But I do understand that this is still a tragedy.)

Yes I agree.  It’s possible there was little to no immune system reaction.  It’s also most likely that he has had Astra Zeneca not Pfizer which is less effective against Delta.

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https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/israel-hits-400-serious-covid-cases-ahead-of-corona-cabinet-meeting-676412
 

On Wednesday morning, the Health Ministry reported 694 people were being treated in Israeli hospitals for the virus, among them 400 in serious condition, with 64% of those patients defined as serious cases being fully vaccinated, compared with 32% who were not. Another 2% were in the process of being vaccinated, and 2% were recovered.
 

What do we make of this stat?  Is it likely that a higher percentage of the vaccinated are more vulnerable or more likely to be exposed due to work?

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58 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/israel-hits-400-serious-covid-cases-ahead-of-corona-cabinet-meeting-676412
 

On Wednesday morning, the Health Ministry reported 694 people were being treated in Israeli hospitals for the virus, among them 400 in serious condition, with 64% of those patients defined as serious cases being fully vaccinated, compared with 32% who were not. Another 2% were in the process of being vaccinated, and 2% were recovered.
 

What do we make of this stat?  Is it likely that a higher percentage of the vaccinated are more vulnerable or more likely to be exposed due to work?

I don't know enough.  What kind of vaccinations were given in Israel?  How long ago were they fully vaccinated?  (ie.  were they the people that some are saying are having the vaccine lose efficacy after six months?  Were they just vaccinated?  Somewhere in between?)  How old are they?  All ages?  All elderly?  More vulnerable (as you noted)?  Working/Living in close contact with others but unmasked? 

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/israel-hits-400-serious-covid-cases-ahead-of-corona-cabinet-meeting-676412
 

On Wednesday morning, the Health Ministry reported 694 people were being treated in Israeli hospitals for the virus, among them 400 in serious condition, with 64% of those patients defined as serious cases being fully vaccinated, compared with 32% who were not. Another 2% were in the process of being vaccinated, and 2% were recovered.
 

What do we make of this stat?  Is it likely that a higher percentage of the vaccinated are more vulnerable or more likely to be exposed due to work?

If almost everyone in the country is vaccinated, then 280 people is a tiny percentage of those. Whereas 120 is an enormous percentage of the unvaccinated.

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28 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I don't know enough.  What kind of vaccinations were given in Israel?  How long ago were they fully vaccinated?  (ie.  were they the people that some are saying are having the vaccine lose efficacy after six months?  Were they just vaccinated?  Somewhere in between?)  How old are they?  All ages?  All elderly?  More vulnerable (as you noted)?  Working/Living in close contact with others but unmasked? 

There is now evidence that the UK's 8 to 12 week booster delay is way way more effective than the 3 to 4 week booster delay that Israel used. 

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27 minutes ago, Laura Corin said:

If almost everyone in the country is vaccinated, then 280 people is a tiny percentage of those. Whereas 120 is an enormous percentage of the unvaccinated.

I think the rates are only about 65pc though.  I can’t find the most up to date statistics.

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44 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I don't know enough.  What kind of vaccinations were given in Israel?  How long ago were they fully vaccinated?  (ie.  were they the people that some are saying are having the vaccine lose efficacy after six months?  Were they just vaccinated?  Somewhere in between?)  How old are they?  All ages?  All elderly?  More vulnerable (as you noted)?  Working/Living in close contact with others but unmasked? 

Pfizer and some were as far back as December.  So yes it could be waning immunity.  I don’t have any more data on the rest.  But you know at the rate Pfizer and Moderna are producing last I calculated it would take about five or six years to vaccinate the whole word even once.  If wealthy countries get boosters some countries won’t get vaccinated at all I guess.  Or not in the short term.

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22 minutes ago, lewelma said:

There is now evidence that the UK's 8 to 12 week booster delay is way way more effective than the 3 to 4 week booster delay that Israel used. 

Is this true regardless of vaccination type?  One of the nurses in my homeschool group pointed out that a two week gap is very unusual for vaccine schedules.

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12 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Is this true regardless of vaccination type?  One of the nurses in my homeschool group pointed out that a two week gap is very unusual for vaccine schedules.

Pfizer. 

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26 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I didn’t realise there was the possibility of a longer gap with Pfizer.  That’s interesting.

After the first month or so, the UK went with a 12-week gap for AZ, Pfizer and Moderna, now reduced to 8-week for all.  AZ is not being used much at present, as people under 40 - who are most of the people being vaccinated right now - are not given it.

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I think the rates are only about 65pc though.  I can’t find the most up to date statistics.

One would have to know what percentage of the very vulnerable were vaccinated and what percentage of those ended up very ill.  It's hard to tell from the basic info given.

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1 hour ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I don't know enough.  What kind of vaccinations were given in Israel?  How long ago were they fully vaccinated?  (ie.  were they the people that some are saying are having the vaccine lose efficacy after six months?  Were they just vaccinated?  Somewhere in between?)  How old are they?  All ages?  All elderly?  More vulnerable (as you noted)?  Working/Living in close contact with others but unmasked? 

Pfizer (almost exclusively), most vaccinations were in October-February (it was the first country to successfully mass vaccinate) and 67.5% in Israel have been double-vaccinated (I'm surprised the percentage stalled out so low). The rise started on June 21, which times in almost perfectly with the relaxation of restrictions Israel had on June 1. It will be interesting to see how the reintroduction of the mask mandate affects matters.

Cases of COVID-19 are rising for all age groups in Israel, but rising fastest in under-18s (even though vaccination from 12 up is strongly recommended by the government, and preteens are "allowed" to receive the jab) and the largest number of total cases are in the over-60s (who were vaccinated first, so they were mostly vaccinated 9-10 months ago).

Due to recent research indicating Pfizer is 39% effective against Delta in the Israeli context (contrasting to 80% for the same study, at the same time, done in the UK), Israel switched to Moderna for vaccinations at the start of this month. However, it is not yet providing boosters for anyone.

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