wuhan - coronavirus

[Dmmetler]

50 minutes ago, Plum said:

If that is the case, then we have a problem. They finally admitted SARS-CoV-2 Alpha is airborne. Now Delta is super contagious. I hate to bring it up yet again but eyes are a mucus membrane as well and people are walking around with their n95’s but no eye protection? They aren’t even talking about it? Anyone ever talked to someone in infection control? 

I did masks and face shields until I was fully vaccinated, and dropped to just a mask once I was, but I'm thinking I will pull out the face shields again.

[Ausmumof3]

6 cases for QLD and heading into lockdown 😞 

[Matryoshka]

Not sure which of the covid threads to post this to, but apparently doctors in LA reporting a lot more Covid cases in kids.. (not just more cases, but are sicker)

https://www.cbs.com/shows/cbs_this_morning/video/kqdNQOwSHKYUoOsLL87boJW0iIU9cd0a/school-aged-kids-in-louisiana-have-the-third-largest-number-of-covid-infections/?fbclid=IwAR15z4v3D1jWtr7R2sIiqwILjaPvHKszsziJXrgtglvpOwio8vyUwCqoqg8

[KSera]

7 hours ago, vonfirmath said:

There are others in the world that would rather we wait to vaccinate our low risk until they got their high risk folk vaccinated. But here we are. There will always be a population at risk.

ETA: I think I am very aware of the effect of the virus on other countries because of the kids I write there. I have not even found a way to mention I am vaccinated in my letters because all I can think is "How wealthy this makes me seem when their parents and grandparents don't even have the option to get a vaccine"  I keep encouraging them to wash their hands and keep their distance -- but even for keeping apart -- that's another privilege I have. Some of them are rural and maybe somewhat able to do it? But those who live in the cities? Not so much.

I agree we need to do everything we can to help vaccinate the rest of the world. I have sponsored children who are dear to me in Haiti who have no vaccine access in their communities at all, so I understand where you're coming from not knowing whether or what to say about vaccination when you write. But not using the vaccines we have in this country isn't going to help them at all. We have an excess here that are going to expire before we can coordinate logistics to have them exported to other countries (I'm still frustrated that it has to be so difficult, but my understanding is that it is). So, there's no greater good reason not to use what we already have. Further, doing so reduces the number of transmissions, which reduces the chances of this mutating so much that the vaccine no longer works as well as it does. Getting vaccines out to all the developing world is going to be hard enough, the last thing we want is for this to have already mutated too much by the time they finally get them.

 

4 hours ago, Danae said:

Vaccinated people who are infected spread it just as much as unvaccinated people who are infected.  Vaccinated people are still less likely to become infected in the first place.  
 

The news has been miserable at communicating this because they are trying to say two things at once.  There was a hope that vaccinated people who became infected might have lower viral loads and be less likely to spread it. The new evidence shows this is probably not true.  And vaccines are less effective at preventing infection from delta than from previous variants.  But that doesn’t mean that the vaccine isn’t more effective at stopping delta than no vaccine.

If you get sneezed on by a random person in the grocery store you’re still eight times more likely to have gotten a face full of covid if the person is unvaccinated.

I agree the news has communicated this really poorly. I think this also shows the results of poor education as regards comprehension skills. People just don't seem to have good comprehension of what they read, hear and watch. I don't know how to help that, because I don't know that it's really their fault. Certainly people not confusing the messaging would help. This particular message is inherently complicated.

4 hours ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

Part of the reason the media isn't communicating what you want it to communicate is because  vaccinated people's infections spread around 50% less than unvaccinated people's infections.

As a note in addition to this being an older story, it's also based on just one shot.

 

1 hour ago, TCB said:

I think you probably mean talking about it in the general public. We are told to wear eye protection, as well as masks, at work, although the compliance with eye protection is not as good as with masks.

I'm not sure this is known yet, but I have wondered if eyes are a risk only as pertains to droplets, and not so much for aerosols. It seems to me aerosols would be more of a risk being breathed in, but that's not based on any data at this point. Incidentally, my own case of potential covid in March 2020 (not tested, and I will assume it was something else unless it is somehow proven otherwise) I think may have come from an eye appoinment. It fits the timing, and I had bad conjunctivitis on top of my severe respiratory illness, as did most of my family members who caught it at the same time.

[Catwoman]

50 minutes ago, Dmmetler said:

I did masks and face shields until I was fully vaccinated, and dropped to just a mask once I was, but I'm thinking I will pull out the face shields again.

Do you think a face shield is enough? A face shield won’t protect you from aerosol transmission.

[ieta_cassiopeia]

9 hours ago, melmichigan said:

 

That is an old study and not accurate to the current variant.  Data moves quickly with a novel virus and a new variant, so dates matter.

Which one? We have conflicting information about viral loads under Delta in the USA for July-dated research - this one says the loads are very different, but this one says they're practically the same. Since neither of them actually measures transmissibility directly - unlike the study I used - I'm inclined to stick to the older research for transmissibility (since factors other than viral load may affect transmissibility, e.g. composition of each virus, demographic differences, non-vaccine COVID-relevant behaviour) and instead use the newer studies for understanding of potential changes to viral load (a component of transmissibility).

8 hours ago, Plum said:

If that is the case, then we have a problem. They finally admitted SARS-CoV-2 Alpha is airborne. Now Delta is super contagious. I hate to bring it up yet again but eyes are a mucus membrane as well and people are walking around with their n95’s but no eye protection? They aren’t even talking about it? Anyone ever talked to someone in infection control? 

Most places don't have enough eye cover for even their emergency workers, let alone anyone else who might want it. One of the two reasons WHO didn't immediately advise masks for everyone was that there were parts of the world with insufficient face masks or coverings to actually practise the advice. It would be far more extreme for eye protection (since on this logic, glasses and contact lenses would be partial protection at best).

[Ausmumof3]

I think the thing with viral load once you’ve reached a certain threshold it doesn’t matter as much how much more virus you produce?  What does seem to matter with delta is you get to that critical load sooner.

[Ausmumof3]

This guy has been talking a lot about ivermectin research the last couple weeks.  Looking through papers, older studies etc.  lots of issues with the studies not just the really flawed one.

[Dmmetler]

11 hours ago, Catwoman said:

Do you think a face shield is enough? A face shield won’t protect you from aerosol transmission.

As I said, masks AND  face shields. I did both until I was vaccinated, and will go back to both this fall. I got mine from a company specializing in pediatric dental office PPE. 

[RootAnn]

I'm definitely having trouble following the science because it is changing so quickly lately. 

I wish there was someone who would put the goals all together for me with the relevant facts. It seems like this is no longer novel (a year and a half in), we have some treatments & vaccines, we know how to keep it from overwhelming hospitals (right?), we know the effect it has had on the elderly & medically fragile, we know cyber- schooling doesn't work for lots of kids,  we know kids transmit the virus,  we know that infected vaccinated individuals can transmit the virus, we know 6' isn't enough to keep people from getting infected with an aerosolized virus (but ever bit of spacing & ventilation helps), etc. 

Some of our understandings have changed in the last year,  some in the last month, some in the last week. I suspect the science will continue to change as the virus changes and more studies are done. 

The original goal was to flatten the curve. I don't think the goal now is elimination (in the US or worldwide except in certain countries). What is the goal now in light of the world not being able to be vaccinated for several years (if ever)? Knowing we will not be shutting our borders. Knowing we will keep traveling. Knowing the virus will keep mutating. Knowing vaccinated people transmit (some, less, same amount). What is our way forward on light of all this? Because I've lost the big picture.

[Corraleno]

Speaking of face shields... here is Tucker Carlson's unhinged, uninformed rant calling the US Secretary of Defense a "neurotic cat lady" for complying with Philippine law by wearing a mask and face shield:

"Today the secretary of defense appeared in public wearing this costume. That’s Mr. Lloyd Austin, ladies and gentlemen, the man in charge of our weapons systems. What’s he got on there? Is that a welder’s mask? Is it a dental visor? Has Lloyd Austin been cleaning teeth this morning? Nope. Looks like Lloyd Austin is just terrified of COVID.

Well then, why doesn’t he lose weight? Quite a bit of weight actually. That’s a good question. That would be the rational response. So, of course, he has not even considered that. Lloyd Austin instead got the vaccine. But he is still so petrified of corona that he put a windshield over his face and demanded that all of his dutiful little minions do the same – an entire army of dental hygienists. Watch out, China. Move against Taiwan and we’ll scrape the tartar off your molars.

And yet, even after all of those comically elaborate precautions, Lloyd Austin still looks scared for his life. Notice how he bumps their hands instead of shaking them. How long before Lloyd Austin is wearing surgical gloves in the shower and zip-tying garbage bags around his feet? The United States military is being run by a neurotic cat lady. Our entire government is at this point.”

 

[TexasProud]

28 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

we have some treatments & vaccines, we know how to keep it from overwhelming hospitals (right?), 

 

I agree we need an end strategy, but wanted to comment on this. No, right now hospitals in Louisiana ( including a children's hospital) are overwhelmed.  I looked at the status of our hospitals, and we more than doubled in a week ( went from 50ish to over 200). If we double again, we will be overwhelmed. Only 1/3 of the people here are vaccinated...so.....  

But yeah, I don't know what we do.  How do we "live" with it when it is getting so bad again.

[Jean in Newcastle]

2 hours ago, RootAnn said:

I'm definitely having trouble following the science because it is changing so quickly lately. 

I wish there was someone who would put the goals all together for me with the relevant facts. It seems like this is no longer novel (a year and a half in), we have some treatments & vaccines, we know how to keep it from overwhelming hospitals (right?), we know the effect it has had on the elderly & medically fragile, we know cyber- schooling doesn't work for lots of kids,  we know kids transmit the virus,  we know that infected vaccinated individuals can transmit the virus, we know 6' isn't enough to keep people from getting infected with an aerosolized virus (but ever bit of spacing & ventilation helps), etc. 

Some of our understandings have changed in the last year,  some in the last month, some in the last week. I suspect the science will continue to change as the virus changes and more studies are done. 

The original goal was to flatten the curve. I don't think the goal now is elimination (in the US or worldwide except in certain countries). What is the goal now in light of the world not being able to be vaccinated for several years (if ever)? Knowing we will not be shutting our borders. Knowing we will keep traveling. Knowing the virus will keep mutating. Knowing vaccinated people transmit (some, less, same amount). What is our way forward on light of all this? Because I've lost the big picture.

Hospitals are still being overrun because unvaccinated people are being hospitalized in great numbers for Covid. We have treatments but they still aren’t enough to keep a lot of people from dying. 
 

The curve in many states is not flattened. The ones where they are flattened (or at least less of a spike) are the ones with high vaccination rates. We have vaccines but still have a lot of vaccine holdouts. 
 

We need to start “putting the oxygen mask on ourselves “ first as a nation. Get vaccines in arms. Then we won’t be spreading it as much if and when we travel. The US has provided and promised to provide more vaccines to other countries. That should continue but that isn’t in place of vaccinating ourselves as well. 

[Catwoman]

3 hours ago, Dmmetler said:

As I said, masks AND  face shields. I did both until I was vaccinated, and will go back to both this fall. I got mine from a company specializing in pediatric dental office PPE. 

Oh, I’m sorry! I know you wear a mask — what I meant to ask is if you thought a face shield was adequate eye protection. I have heard that face shields are helpful against droplets, but not against aerosols, and I was wondering if you have heard something different.

I keep hoping there is new and more hopeful information that I have missed!

[Dmmetler]

9 minutes ago, Catwoman said:

Oh, I’m sorry! I know you wear a mask — what I meant to ask is if you thought a face shield was adequate eye protection. I have heard that face shields are helpful against droplets, but not against aerosols, and I was wondering if you have heard something different.

I keep hoping there is new and more hopeful information that I have missed!

I have based what I do on what pediatric dental offices do, because they have a lot of aerosol generating procedures, and have to walk the line between safety and not terrifying already nervous young patients. So, I have face shields that wrap around and go pretty low and high, plus well filtering masks, and they all have cute animals on them :). (My normal masks are Happy Masks, with a child sized surgical mask that can fit under the happy mask if numbers are such that I double mask, and I can wear a medium, so all the cute patterns are available).  I also run air filters, keep as much ventilation as I can, and have adapted to distancing. 

It's a compromise that seems to have worked OK last school year, and hopefully will for Delta, especially since I'm vaccinated. 

[KSera]

8 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I think the thing with viral load once you’ve reached a certain threshold it doesn’t matter as much how much more virus you produce?  What does seem to matter with delta is you get to that critical load sooner.

The other thing I’m seeing the last two days are studies showing that vaccinated people who become infected with delta clear the virus more quickly than the unvaccinated (as one would expect). This means that while initial loads may be equivalent, the vaccinated people drop down to uninfectious levels more quickly, so they have less time they might transmit compared to unvaccinated. 

[Frances]

17 hours ago, Catwoman said:

I agree! The only time I have been inside a building since the entire pandemic started was when I needed a mammogram, and I made sure to wear both an N95 mask and eye protection. I felt kind of ridiculous, but it turned out that the tech was wearing them, too, so I felt better about it. 

I keep asking different doctors about how likely it is to catch Covid via the eyes, and they all act like, “Well… it could happen, but it’s unlikely,” and when I ask them how they know it’s unlikely, they never seem to have any statistics. 

Don’t get me wrong — if there are no statistics, there are no statistics, but don’t act like people probably don’t need eye protection if you actually have no clue about it. 

I remember reading several things about eye protection being useful, including showing even regular glasses can be helpful. Due to this, my husband wore goggles at work for quite awhile and will likely start again. I also know some people who have done this when flying.

[Frances]

3 hours ago, Corraleno said:

Speaking of face shields... here is Tucker Carlson's unhinged, uninformed rant calling the US Secretary of Defense a "neurotic cat lady" for complying with Philippine law by wearing a mask and face shield:

"Today the secretary of defense appeared in public wearing this costume. That’s Mr. Lloyd Austin, ladies and gentlemen, the man in charge of our weapons systems. What’s he got on there? Is that a welder’s mask? Is it a dental visor? Has Lloyd Austin been cleaning teeth this morning? Nope. Looks like Lloyd Austin is just terrified of COVID.

Well then, why doesn’t he lose weight? Quite a bit of weight actually. That’s a good question. That would be the rational response. So, of course, he has not even considered that. Lloyd Austin instead got the vaccine. But he is still so petrified of corona that he put a windshield over his face and demanded that all of his dutiful little minions do the same – an entire army of dental hygienists. Watch out, China. Move against Taiwan and we’ll scrape the tartar off your molars.

And yet, even after all of those comically elaborate precautions, Lloyd Austin still looks scared for his life. Notice how he bumps their hands instead of shaking them. How long before Lloyd Austin is wearing surgical gloves in the shower and zip-tying garbage bags around his feet? The United States military is being run by a neurotic cat lady. Our entire government is at this point.”

 

And yet some still want to claim that low vaccination rates are all the fault of the left, both the message and the messengers. It’s complicated and public health officials are doing their very best to meet people where they are. But they have to deal with this kind of divisive crap being watched by millions every day. What a sad reflection on the character of our country that he is so popular.

[Innisfree]

4 hours ago, RootAnn said:

we have some treatments & vaccines, we know how to keep it from overwhelming hospitals (right?),

We have some treatments, but no magic bullets. My understanding is that there's nothing yet which would, for example, be the equivalent of an antibiotic to treat a bacterial infection. There's hope for new treatments currently in research, but not presently available.

Hospitals are absolutely getting overwhelmed. We know how to prevent that: the population needs to be vaccinated. 

 

4 hours ago, RootAnn said:

The original goal was to flatten the curve. I don't think the goal now is elimination (in the US or worldwide except in certain countries). What is the goal now in light of the world not being able to be vaccinated for several years (if ever)?

I think the goal is to vaccinate as many as possible, and then get them booster shots as needed, in hopes of saving lives, preventing the next dangerous variant, and continuing to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. 

On a population level, that probably should mean a hard shutdown for several weeks, plus a heavy, all-hands-on-deck approach to mass vaccination, plus universal masking. If we did it right now, we could get numbers way down before most schools start in September. Kids in middle and high school could have at least one dose, maybe two by then, and be in better shape to attend school in person.

But we won't do that, because people won't tolerate it.

I think local influencers like ministers, doctors, coaches could do a lot of good if they talked about how important vaccination is, and held local events where vaccination is available. That's happening in some places: people here have posted examples.

My own goal at this point is just to keep my family safe. We're all vaccinated. We're returning to masking. I'm ordering N95s. 

Edited July 31, 2021 by Innisfree

[ktgrok]

Yeah..hospitals here are not "overwhelmed" in that people are dying on stretchers in the parking lot, but they are canceling all any elective procedures or outpatient procedures that are not "time sensitive". Hospitals don't cancel stuff if they are not overwhelmed. 

[SKL]

5 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Yeah..hospitals here are not "overwhelmed" in that people are dying on stretchers in the parking lot, but they are canceling all any elective procedures or outpatient procedures that are not "time sensitive". Hospitals don't cancel stuff if they are not overwhelmed. 

They canceled almost everything for months (in 2020) where I live, and our hospitals were never overwhelmed.  They thought it was going to happen, so they went all out preparing for it, but it never happened.  Our doctors and nurses ended up traveling to other states to help with their overwhelm.

I wouldn't be surprised if Florida hospitals are bracing for what appears likely to happen.  Perhaps rightly so.

I do notice that the current hospitalization and death rates are pretty low these days, in general, compared to those rates in 2020.  So hopefully it won't ever get as bad as it did in 2020 / early 2021.

[regentrude]

16 minutes ago, SKL said:

They canceled almost everything for months (in 2020) where I live, and our hospitals were never overwhelmed.  They thought it was going to happen, so they went all out preparing for it, but it never happened.  Our doctors and nurses ended up traveling to other states to help with their overwhelm.

I wouldn't be surprised if Florida hospitals are bracing for what appears likely to happen.  Perhaps rightly so.

I do notice that the current hospitalization and death rates are pretty low these days, in general, compared to those rates in 2020.  So hopefully it won't ever get as bad as it did in 2020 / early 2021.

It is already as bad here. A major hospital system in my state had to open a sixth Covid unit. They only needed five units last year. They ran out of ventilators and had to have them shipped from other hospitals. We're right back where we were in the fall, see graph. And rising.

It varies a lot by region. In my state, only 16% of inpatient hospital beds remain available. My local hospital is at capacity, including the ICU.

Heck, in my county we have a 48% positivity rate. That is frightening.

Edited July 31, 2021 by regentrude

[regentrude]

6 hours ago, RootAnn said:

we know how to keep it from overwhelming hospitals (right?)

sadly, wrong.

 

[KeriJ]

20 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Yeah..hospitals here are not "overwhelmed" in that people are dying on stretchers in the parking lot, but they are canceling all any elective procedures or outpatient procedures that are not "time sensitive". Hospitals don't cancel stuff if they are not overwhelmed. 

My father in law is in the glass business in your area. His company is hired to convert for a new covid wing. But it's for possibility of need, not emergency need. He was told it would be about 4 weeks and then they would convert back.

[ktgrok]

16 minutes ago, SKL said:

They canceled almost everything for months (in 2020) where I live, and our hospitals were never overwhelmed.  They thought it was going to happen, so they went all out preparing for it, but it never happened.  Our doctors and nurses ended up traveling to other states to help with their overwhelm.

I wouldn't be surprised if Florida hospitals are bracing for what appears likely to happen.  Perhaps rightly so.

I do notice that the current hospitalization and death rates are pretty low these days, in general, compared to those rates in 2020.  So hopefully it won't ever get as bad as it did in 2020 / early 2021.

Florida's hospitalization is not low. Shands has already had to move people from the North Campus to the main one as they ran out of room. People at other hospitals have told me it is getting bad. 

Edited July 31, 2021 by ktgrok

[RootAnn]

Re: we know how to keep from overwhelming hospitals

"The truth of the matter is that you always know the right thing to do. The hard part is doing it."

-Norman Schwarzkopf

[ktgrok]

1 minute ago, RootAnn said:

Re: we know how to keep from overwhelming hospitals

"The truth of the matter is that you always know the right thing to do. The hard part is doing it."

-Norman Schwarzkopf

Ugh, yeah.

What is that quote? "The good news is, we are only 6 weeks from being able to end the pandemic. The bad news is, we have always been only 6 weeks from being able to end the pandemic."

[kbutton]

6 hours ago, RootAnn said:

The original goal was to flatten the curve. I don't think the goal now is elimination (in the US or worldwide except in certain countries). What is the goal now in light of the world not being able to be vaccinated for several years (if ever)? Knowing we will not be shutting our borders. Knowing we will keep traveling. Knowing the virus will keep mutating. Knowing vaccinated people transmit (some, less, same amount). What is our way forward on light of all this? Because I've lost the big picture.

I think part of the problem is that a lot of people, including governors/state legislators that have passed laws limited the health department powers, want to live with the virus on their terms, not in terms that allow for mitigated risk. 

Their own terms: no masks in school (example only)

Mitigated risk: encourage vaccination, masks in school, distance (if possible--may not be now if people don't stay in online school), reduce contacts outside of school (examples)

It's not always either/or, and those who force that narrative tend to undermine/dilute the efforts of those who are being truly careful.

I may still not be comfortable with certain activities with the mitigated risk, but I would sure feel better about taking those risks if I had no choice. 

A school district local to us is asking parents if they are open to the idea of having specific elementary classes dedicated to masking (no promises enough people will be on board to provide this). That may not end up mitigating risks as much as universal masking would in classrooms, but I would guess it's FAR more meaningful to the people who want to protect themselves with masks to have an entire room full of masked people than to have every room be a mix of masked and not. 

There is always a continuum of effectiveness, and the options are interlocking and reinforce each other. 

3 hours ago, Frances said:

I remember reading several things about eye protection being useful, including showing even regular glasses can be helpful. Due to this, my husband wore goggles at work for quite awhile and will likely start again. I also know some people who have done this when flying.

Goggles with a gasket are the best, but I don't know if they are better than or equal to face shields. I think both are meant to protect against droplets of all sizes. I am not sure if it's known whether or not aerosols can penetrate the eyes, but I suspect it's a continuum or risk just like droplet to aerosol is a continuum.

If we had had the PPE and containment up front, the original recommendations for people treating covid patients were full body suits and respirator hoods. We compromised out of necessity and got seriously lucky that airborne spread wasn't as severe as we thought it would be (and lucky it wasn't originally spread as easily as delta).

2 hours ago, Innisfree said:

We have some treatments, but no magic bullets. My understanding is that there's nothing yet which would, for example, be the equivalent of an antibiotic to treat a bacterial infection. There's hope for new treatments currently in research, but not presently available.

Hospitals are absolutely getting overwhelmed. We know how to prevent that: the population needs to be vaccinated. 

I think the goal is to vaccinate as many as possible, and then get them booster shots as needed, in hopes of saving lives, preventing the next dangerous variant, and continuing to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. 

On a population level, that probably should mean a hard shutdown for several weeks, plus a heavy, all-hands-on-deck approach to mass vaccination, plus universal masking. If we did it right now, we could get numbers way down before most schools start in September. Kids in middle and high school could have at least one dose, maybe two by then, and be in better shape to attend school in person.

But we won't do that, because people won't tolerate it.

I think local influencers like ministers, doctors, coaches could do a lot of good if they talked about how important vaccination is, and held local events where vaccination is available. That's happening in some places: people here have posted examples.

My own goal at this point is just to keep my family safe. We're all vaccinated. We're returning to masking. I'm ordering N95s. 

I agree, though I don't know if a hard lockdown could be justified at this point after a full year of all the negative effects for those who did isolate, lose business, etc. If we didn't have a vaccine, that might be different. Of course, it could be argued that a vaccine would make a total shutdown more effective as well!

21 minutes ago, SKL said:

They canceled almost everything for months (in 2020) where I live, and our hospitals were never overwhelmed.  They thought it was going to happen, so they went all out preparing for it, but it never happened.  Our doctors and nurses ended up traveling to other states to help with their overwhelm.

You're forgetting that PPE was a big factor in cancelling procedures. It wasn't just beds or Covid patient numbers. We also didn't want people going in for routine procedures to get it or pass it on during the procedure. They were still stratifying risk. 

But PPE was a huge deal. Huge. It's still a bit of a problem, but it's pretty bad when your healthcare worker spouse has to use a mask for a month at a time because his size is unusual and not available if he tosses his current mask. 

[Not_a_Number]

32 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Ugh, yeah.

What is that quote? "The good news is, we are only 6 weeks from being able to end the pandemic. The bad news is, we have always been only 6 weeks from being able to end the pandemic."

I saw someone in a comment section on another site say that COVID made them realize humankind would never cooperate enough to deal with global warming.

They are right.

[Not_a_Number]

20 hours ago, Matryoshka said:

Not sure which of the covid threads to post this to, but apparently doctors in LA reporting a lot more Covid cases in kids.. (not just more cases, but are sicker)

https://www.cbs.com/shows/cbs_this_morning/video/kqdNQOwSHKYUoOsLL87boJW0iIU9cd0a/school-aged-kids-in-louisiana-have-the-third-largest-number-of-covid-infections/?fbclid=IwAR15z4v3D1jWtr7R2sIiqwILjaPvHKszsziJXrgtglvpOwio8vyUwCqoqg8

I saw the same thing for Arkansas 😕 

 https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/28/us/arkansas-covid-children/index.html

[Not_a_Number]

7 hours ago, RootAnn said:

The original goal was to flatten the curve. I don't think the goal now is elimination (in the US or worldwide except in certain countries). What is the goal now in light of the world not being able to be vaccinated for several years (if ever)? Knowing we will not be shutting our borders. Knowing we will keep traveling. Knowing the virus will keep mutating. Knowing vaccinated people transmit (some, less, same amount). What is our way forward on light of all this? Because I've lost the big picture.

I would assume that the goal has always been to minimize the human cost. How to do that is obviously tricky to balance and keeps requiring adjustment. 

[RootAnn]

1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

I would assume that the goal has always been to minimize the human cost. How to do that is obviously tricky to balance and keeps requiring adjustment. 

Thank you for trying to address the question of goal. I may have missed someone, but I think this is the only reply to include what the goal is or was.

Let's unpack that line, "minimize human cost." Lives lost? It'll never be zero even at 100% vaccination.

What's the acceptable minimization #?

Heart disease deaths in US? 659,000/yr

Lung cancer deaths in US? 139,000/yr

Flu deaths in US? 22,000-61,000/season

We all know there was a "human cost" to the lockdowns, virtual schooling, and business closures last year. Like others have pointed out, I don't think the majority of Americans are willing to pay those costs again, short or long term.

I'd like to understand what goal we should all be striving for. 100% immunization? 90%? 80%? 70%? 

Thank you @Innisfree for including your own personal goal of keeping your family safe. 

[Matryoshka]

31 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

Thank you for trying to address the question of goal. I may have missed someone, but I think this is the only reply to include what the goal is or was.

Let's unpack that line, "minimize human cost." Lives lost? It'll never be zero even at 100% vaccination.

What's the acceptable minimization #?

Heart disease deaths in US? 659,000/yr

Lung cancer deaths in US? 139,000/yr

Flu deaths in US? 22,000-61,000/season

We all know there was a "human cost" to the lockdowns, virtual schooling, and business closures last year. Like others have pointed out, I don't think the majority of Americans are willing to pay those costs again, short or long term.

I'd like to understand what goal we should all be striving for. 100% immunization? 90%? 80%? 70%? 

Thank you @Innisfree for including your own personal goal of keeping your family safe. 

All of those, except influenza (for which we already have a vaccine and does not ravage through communties to hospital overwhelm since 1918 when there were shut-downs), are not communicable diseases.  They do not spread.  Heart disease, cancer, lung disease, stroke, diabetes - we do try to minimize those, but they are genetic, or lifestyle or general age related -  you can't give them to your family, neighbor, or coworker, so none of the mitigation factors for a commuicable disease are even applicable.

No one thinks the cases will ever get to zero (outside of NZ...).  I'd say we'll be lucky if we knock this down to flu levels yearly.  Where it's a thing, but it doesn't cause things like mass graves and freezer trucks of dead bodies.  So, like the flu, vaccinate - and hope that when it's no longer a novel virus and everyone who can has been vaccinated it ends up being something more managable.

Quote

I'd like to understand what goal we should all be striving for. 100% immunization? 90%? 80%? 70%? 

Well, the same level as measles  - which is less communicable and less deadly than Delta - would be nice.  Which is, I think, over 90%.  And when it gets much under that due to anti-vaxxers, there are outbreaks.  So that seems a good number.  The measles vaccine (again, a disease less communicable, and less deadly than Delta) has been mandatory for decades.

And ... my own kids had a quite bad reaction to the measles vaccine and are only partially vaccinated for it, so yay herd immunity.  And they are all fully vaccinated for Covid - no reaction other than a day of feeling a bit tired and blah.  The measles vaccine is nastier.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Matryoshka

[Not_a_Number]

19 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

Thank you for trying to address the question of goal. I may have missed someone, but I think this is the only reply to include what the goal is or was.

Let's unpack that line, "minimize human cost." Lives lost? It'll never be zero even at 100% vaccination.

I've never thought it made sense to try to reduce deaths to zero. I'd like COVID risks to feel commensurate with other risks, and they still currently don't. They probably will after my kids get vaccinated, though.  

 

19 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

What's the acceptable minimization #?

Heart disease deaths in US? 659,000/yr

Lung cancer deaths in US? 139,000/yr

Flu deaths in US? 22,000-61,000/season

The thing is that COVID goes on top of those deaths. It's not like COVID makes the other deaths not exist. 

But I'm actually not super worried of dying of COVID or my kids dying of COVID. I'm far more worried about being disabled by it. 

 

19 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

We all know there was a "human cost" to the lockdowns, virtual schooling, and business closures last year. Like others have pointed out, I don't think the majority of Americans are willing to pay those costs again, short or long term.

Yes, those definitely have human cost. I don't think the way we did any of this made sense. It was all really chaotic. 

That being said, it seems unlikely that we'll have major shutdowns moving forward. I think most of the costs going forward will be the result of fear and human behavior and not mandates. But I don't think you can discount fear, either. For instance, I don't see movie theaters and restaurants bouncing right back. 

 

19 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

I'd like to understand what goal we should all be striving for. 100% immunization? 90%? 80%? 70%? 

To reduce human cost? I suppose the higher the better, as long as we try to avoid the people who're likely to have serious bad reactions. 

[lewelma]

45 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

No one thinks the cases will ever get to zero (outside of NZ...). 

Yes, sadly, we are the last one standing. But I think the government is running scared with what has happened in Sydney.  Today in the main NZ news outlet, there is a piece by the top scientist who has been advising the government from the beginning. He has said that they only way to contain a Delta outbreak is 'level 4 lockdown on steroids.' Keep in mind that our one month long level 4 lockdown was the strictest in the world. So to put it on steriods will be interesting. He has mentioned even closing down some essential services. Gulp. Here is to hoping that we can get the vaccine in all the arms by December as planned.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/125904518/covid19-how-would-aotearoa-cope-with-a-delta-outbreak 

Edited July 31, 2021 by lewelma

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, lewelma said:

Yes, sadly, we are the last one standing. But I think the government is running scared with what has happened in Sydney.  Today in the main NZ news outlet, there is a piece by the top scientist who has been advising the government from the beginning. He has said that they only way to contain a Delta outbreak is 'level 4 lockdown on steroids.' Keep in mind that our lever 4 lockdown was the strictest in the world. So to put it on steriods will be interesting. He has mentioned even closing down some essential services. Gulp. Here is to hoping that we can get the vaccine in all the arms by December as planned.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/125904518/covid19-how-would-aotearoa-cope-with-a-delta-outbreak 

Your scientists do seem to know what they are doing... this is definitely a year in which I kind of wish we lived in New Zealand 😛 

[lewelma]

1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

Your scientists do seem to know what they are doing... this is definitely a year in which I kind of wish we lived in New Zealand 😛 

Well, the government is also listening. It is definitely a partnership between the scientists, the government, and the people. 

[Jean in Newcastle]

1 hour ago, RootAnn said:

Thank you for trying to address the question of goal. I may have missed someone, but I think this is the only reply to include what the goal is or was.

Let's unpack that line, "minimize human cost." Lives lost? It'll never be zero even at 100% vaccination.

What's the acceptable minimization #?

Heart disease deaths in US? 659,000/yr

Lung cancer deaths in US? 139,000/yr

Flu deaths in US? 22,000-61,000/season

We all know there was a "human cost" to the lockdowns, virtual schooling, and business closures last year. Like others have pointed out, I don't think the majority of Americans are willing to pay those costs again, short or long term.

I'd like to understand what goal we should all be striving for. 100% immunization? 90%? 80%? 70%? 

Thank you @Innisfree for including your own personal goal of keeping your family safe. 

I obliquely addressed the goal question by saying that in many places the curve has not flattened or stayed flattened.  In my area, which did flatten the curve very well, things were cautiously (and I think responsibly) opened up. But not in the wide open fashion of other places. Now with Delta the curve  is no longer staying flat so we’re tightening up again. We always knew that the “flatten the curve “ goal was going to be a dance of tightening up and loosening up. It was never supposed to be one and done because viruses don’t work that way. 

Edited August 1, 2021 by Jean in Newcastle
Typed a wrong word

[Ausmumof3]

9 cases for QLD.  I’m glad they responded quickly by going into lockdown and hope it’s short. 4 for Vic.

NSW had 210 yesterday.  

[RootAnn]

1 hour ago, Matryoshka said:

Well, the same level as measles  - which is less communicable and less deadly than Delta - would be nice.  Which is, I think, over 90%.  And when it gets much under that due to anti-vaxxers, there are outbreaks.  So that seems a good number.  The measles vaccine (again, a disease less communicable, and less deadly than Delta) has been mandatory for decades.

Um. Measles has a much higher R0. Maybe you are thinking of mumps?

(And I know I've pointed this out before, but the measles vaccine isn't mandated everywhere in the US.)

[Ausmumof3]

239 in Nsw 

[Melissa Louise]

1 minute ago, Ausmumof3 said:

239 in Nsw 

Ok. I'm done now. This is ridiculous. Five weeks of lockdown and numbers going up?

 

[ktgrok]

Not sure if this is the right place, may put it in the vaccine one too...but Florida hit our highest numbers since the start of the pandemic. 

And this article was so upsetting....https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/us/coronavirus-florida-hospitals.html

But these days inside the Covid I.C.U., almost everything is worse.

The week before, Ms. Zacharski’s team had lost a 24-year-old mother whose entire family had contracted the coronavirus. The woman, like every other patient in the Covid I.C.U., had been unvaccinated.

and 

Jackson has also admitted some vaccinated people, but almost all have been transplant patients with compromised immune systems. During last week’s visit by a reporter and photographer from The New York Times, none were in the I.C.U.

[bookbard]

4 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

And this article was so upsetting....https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/us/coronavirus-florida-hospitals.html

Can't believe the guy with Covid was still saying he probably wouldn't get vaccinated . . . and then said, 'but I hope no one else gets it', like he had made no connection between the two things. 

[Melissa in Australia]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

9 cases for QLD.  I’m glad they responded quickly by going into lockdown and hope it’s short. 4 for Vic.

NSW had 210 yesterday.  

If anyone doubts that it spreads through schools they should take a good look at QLD

5 different school communities

Edited August 1, 2021 by Melissa in Australia

[bookbard]

17 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Ok. I'm done now. This is ridiculous. Five weeks of lockdown and numbers going up?

 

I'm really concerned that from political pressure they'll try to open up schools (in Sydney). Hopefully they'll get enough pushback from staff and parents that it won't happen. We have 200 kids under 9 with Covid out of, what, 3,000 cases? That is a lot. 

Edited August 1, 2021 by bookbard
Edited to add: I mean, in Sydney

[ktgrok]

1 minute ago, bookbard said:

Can't believe the guy with Covid was still saying he probably wouldn't get vaccinated . . . and then said, 'but I hope no one else gets it', like he had made no connection between the two things. 

Yeah....maybe that's the Covid brain fog? Sigh. 

The utter inability to use logic may kill me way before any virus. 

But I'm still stuck on the "masks can't keep out the virus...but they will suffocate you because air can't get through" thing. I mean, I sometimes say dumb stuff, but as I say it out loud I realize how dumb it is, and apologize and laugh. 

[Melissa in Australia]

17 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Ok. I'm done now. This is ridiculous. Five weeks of lockdown and numbers going up?

 

Last year that happened in Melbourne. It ended up to close to 5 months of lockdown.  Getting stricter and stricter or until the numbers dropped. If I remember right when the numbers dropped it was quick

[Melissa in Australia]

43 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

Um. Measles has a much higher R0. Maybe you are thinking of mumps?

(And I know I've pointed this out before, but the measles vaccine isn't mandated everywhere in the US.)

Thanks for the chart. I was wanting to look this chart up last night but couldn't think what to search for 

[Melissa Louise]

13 minutes ago, bookbard said:

I'm really concerned that from political pressure they'll try to open up schools (in Sydney). Hopefully they'll get enough pushback from staff and parents that it won't happen. We have 200 kids under 9 with Covid out of, what, 3,000 cases? That is a lot. 

I'm hearing that we should expect not to be back this term, but who knows?

I personally would like to be back at work, but it's a lot of mixing. And workplaces arent safe, just because they're familiar. Some of my kids are vulnerable, so for their sake, too, I'm glad they can learn from home. 

I would go back though if I was allowed. I felt safe in Week 1 when I was there - double vax, masks, ventilation. But I come from a leper LGA, lol. 

Some teachers in the Hunter are very upset b/c their Pfizer appts have been cancelled as part of the plan ( I use that word loosely) to vaccinate HSC students.