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8 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

so it looks like percentage positive has dropped suddenly at the same time as cases.  It’s such a spikey graph - will be very interesting to know what happened.  Here 90% is the magic figure that keeps getting thrown around for herd immunity so maybe UK is finally there!

Supposedly we are there for adults.  The ONS surveys the population more-or-less randomly (it's not perfect) linked in this article:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833

 

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2 hours ago, lewelma said:

Concerning UK: This article is suggesting that the covid transmission will be in an "endemic equilibrium" with decaying vaccine effectiveness.  

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/uk/300369210/why-covid19-cases-are-falling-in-the-uk--and-what-could-happen-next

Thanks, I had heard the SIR model term being thrown around and it’s nice to have a kind of simple layman’s explanation of it.

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It appears that nightclubs in the UK will now allow people to enter using test results after September despite previously advertising this would not be possible. An NHS COVID pass would be required, meaning nightclubs will require one of the following:

- full vaccination with a UK-approved vaccine + 2 weeks' wait + either NHS Passport app confirmation or a letter from the NHS confirming vaccination completion (this one doesn't expire)

- negative (any type) test + NHS Passport app confirmation (this expires after 48 hours)

- positive PCR test + completion of legal self-isolation requirement (10 days unless otherwise specified) + NHS Passport app confirmation (I assume this is due to antibodies, though no antibody test is required, expected or in any way useful for securing a NHS COVID pass. It expires after 180 days/almost 6 months).

The first of these is the only one which allows international travel, but domestic venues that requires proof of COVID-free status are likely to accept any of the three, since they're to ask for a pass rather than a specific method of passing. Links to how this is done in the various parts of the UK here.

If you got your vaccine abroad and it's not UK-approved (for example, it's the two-dose Janssen or Novovax), it's not clear exactly how the proof system will work (the NHS Covid app for use with a test result requires an NHS number - though you don't have to know what that number is - and tourists wouldn't have a NHS number unless they'd needed NHS care at some point).

I do not expect to need a vaccination letter in the near future, but have ordered one anyway (free of charge, online-only - how this will work for the 20% with no internet is anyone's guess) because I completed my COVID vaccination course more than 2 weeks ago.

In other news, a trust in Northern Ireland has cancelled some operations due to COVID-related staff shortages. 500 staff currently off work either with COVID or isolating due to close contact with people who have COVID. This is despite some healthcare workers now being exempt from having to self-isolate if they are informed a close contact has COVID if they themselves test negative.

Currently, 10 COVID patients total in the community are in intensive care - it's not clear what that Trust's total ICU capacity is. Also note that other elective surgeries in the same Trust are continuing as usual, which indicates it's a specialty-specific problem at the moment.

The Isle of Man has a test shortage due to high numbers of cases and suspected cases, and has temporarily banned nursing home visits.

On the other hand, a Northern Ireland study has shown that mental health is now back to where it was pre-pandemic, despite many restrictions still being in place there (unlike England). This shows that people do, to some degree, get used to restrictions - provided they can see that one day fairly soon, they are going to be gone.

Edited by ieta_cassiopeia
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7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The UK numbers are looking pretty fascinating.  Does anyone know if there’s a shift in percent positive alongside the shift in daily case numbers?

I don’t know that answer, but saw this chart this morning that shows pretty starkly how well the vaccines are working there:

 

D040C0CB-62C9-4C69-AED2-4CC8638069E8.jpeg

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54 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Thanks.  Trying to multi task when I first wake up is not a really successful strategy! 

The vaccine usage has varied by age cohort over time. The oldest and most frail mostly got Pfizer. The middle aged mostly got AZ. The under 40s Pfizer and Moderna. 

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3 hours ago, KSera said:

I don’t know that answer, but saw this chart this morning that shows pretty starkly how well the vaccines are working there:

 

D040C0CB-62C9-4C69-AED2-4CC8638069E8.jpeg

It would be interesting to see actual hospitalizations. I know some vaccinated are hospitalized but not sure of the extent. Curious how common it is. 

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53 minutes ago, frogger said:

It would be interesting to see actual hospitalizations. I know some vaccinated are hospitalized but not sure of the extent. Curious how common it is. 

This is Scotland 

BBC News - Covid: Have we passed the peak and can we relax?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57971990

The last announcement was that 60 percent of those hospitalised were unvaccinated. Which is an enormous percentage if you consider the very high vaccination rates.

Screenshot_20210729-200316_BBC News.jpg

Edited by Laura Corin
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4 hours ago, frogger said:

It would be interesting to see actual hospitalizations. I know some vaccinated are hospitalized but not sure of the extent. Curious how common it is. 

My best friend's mother is currently in the hospital 😞 She is active and healthy, though she is in her 70s

ETA she had Moderna. Her husband also got Covid (and had Moderna) but was not hospitalized. Interesting because he isn’t in as good health as she is. It’s so random. 

Edited by whitestavern
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16 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

This just scares the hell out of me, and is why I am still being super cautious despite being fully vaxxed and having few risk factors. Death is not the only bad outcome, and people who claim that most cases are "mild" and therefore NBD are ignoring the potential long term effects. 

"The severity of the initial disease does not predict who is going to get this," Erausquin told CNN. "In fact, many of them had minimal symptoms -- just a cold or loss of smell." The cognitive issues --including persistent forgetfulness, difficulty sequencing tasks, and forgetting words and phrases -- are similar to those seen in Alzheimer's patients. Erausquin noted that the parts of the brain responsible for sense of smell overlap with those impacted by Alzheimer's disease."

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Hmm.

Defence force being brought in to locked down LGA's to enforce compliance.

Not sure I am a fan of this. Compliance in this LGA is generally related to insecure work/overcrowding/lack of access to the things that help us stay home. 

Really not keen on having the military patrol the suburb next to me, which is jam packed with immigrants and refugees from places where the military is not your friend. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

Hmm.

Defence force being brought in to locked down LGA's to enforce compliance.

Not sure I am a fan of this. Compliance in this LGA is generally related to insecure work/overcrowding/lack of access to the things that help us stay home. 

Really not keen on having the military patrol the suburb next to me, which is jam packed with immigrants and refugees from places where the military is not your friend. 

 

 

They had the military help in Vic last year. Really it isn't like what you imagine.  Instead of 3 police walking around together there were 2 police and an ADF person. So the police could be spread out further. They also helped with traffic control at testing centres and I believe assisted nurses who were doing house checks instead of police. It frees up police and nurses, especially if there are numbers in isolation because of covid exposure 

It wasn't soldiers walking around armed or anything like that. 

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1 hour ago, Melissa in Australia said:

They had the military help in Vic last year. Really it isn't like what you imagine.  Instead of 3 police walking around together there were 2 police and an ADF person. So the police could be spread out further. They also helped with traffic control at testing centres and I believe assisted nurses who were doing house checks instead of police. It frees up police and nurses, especially if there are numbers in isolation because of covid exposure 

It wasn't soldiers walking around armed or anything like that. 

It won't bother me. 

But I know it will bother people will experiences different to mine. 

 

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C.D.C. Internal Report Calls Delta Variant as Contagious as Chickenpox

😭

Vaccinated people are eight times less likely to become infected, but if they do, it’s possible they might transmit it just as easily. It also seems to be more severe. Fortunately so far the vaccine is still ultra protective against serious illness and death.

Edited by KSera
Had stat wrong. 8-fold reduction in illness
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https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109072
 

Study on breakthrough cases and long Covid in healthcare workers in Israel.

Among 1497 fully vaccinated health care workers for whom RT-PCR data were available, 39 SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections were documented. Neutralizing antibody titers in case patients during the peri-infection period were lower than those in matched uninfected controls (case-to-control ratio, 0.361; 95% confidence interval, 0.165 to 0.787). Higher peri-infection neutralizing antibody titers were associated with lower infectivity (higher Ct values). Most breakthrough cases were mild or asymptomatic, although 19% had persistent symptoms (>6 weeks). The B.1.1.7 (alpha) variant was found in 85% of samples tested. A total of 74% of case patients had a high viral load (Ct value, <30) at some point during their infection; however, of these patients, only 17 (59%) had a positive result on concurrent Ag-RDT. No secondary infections were documented.

CONCLUSIONS

Among fully vaccinated health care workers, the occurrence of breakthrough infections with SARS-CoV-2 was correlated with neutralizing antibody titers during the peri-infection period. Most breakthrough infections were mild or asymptomatic, although persistent symptoms did occur.

Edited by Ausmumof3
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Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109072
 

Study on breakthrough cases and long Covid in healthcare workers in Israel.

 

I saw that, although I would really like them followed longer! 

For context, the long COVID numbers are smaller than what we'd have without vaccination, I think. At least, that was the sense I got when I looked at this before. 

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17 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I saw that, although I would really like them followed longer! 

For context, the long COVID numbers are smaller than what we'd have without vaccination, I think. At least, that was the sense I got when I looked at this before. 

Yes agreed.  It seems like a small percentage of a small percentage.  Mind you that was all pre-delta.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/29/cdc-mask-guidance/?fbclid=IwAR0DiAkmJNCPQmiS9EwiyfZNwblxupp61fs1aWh0iKHLZ6VSkdH5L5AsRDA

 

"'The war has changed'  Internal CDC document urges new messaging, warns delta infenctions likely more severe.

 

My takeaway:

--Vaccinations protect you from severe disease. Vaccinated are still catching delta and still spreading it just as much as unvaccinated. There is also significant hospitalized population that is vaccinated as well.

"“We really need to shift toward a goal of preventing serious disease and disability and medical consequences, and not worry about every virus detected in somebody’s nose,” Neuzil said. “It’s hard to do, but I think we have to become comfortable with coronavirus not going away.”

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1 hour ago, vonfirmath said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/29/cdc-mask-guidance/?fbclid=IwAR0DiAkmJNCPQmiS9EwiyfZNwblxupp61fs1aWh0iKHLZ6VSkdH5L5AsRDA

 

"'The war has changed'  Internal CDC document urges new messaging, warns delta infenctions likely more severe.

 

My takeaway:

--Vaccinations protect you from severe disease. Vaccinated are still catching delta and still spreading it just as much as unvaccinated. There is also significant hospitalized population that is vaccinated as well.

"“We really need to shift toward a goal of preventing serious disease and disability and medical consequences, and not worry about every virus detected in somebody’s nose,” Neuzil said. “It’s hard to do, but I think we have to become comfortable with coronavirus not going away.”

Can we wait to do that until kids can be vaccinated? Cause there is nothing we can do to protect them from serious disease disability, other than not having them catch it. 

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14 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Can we wait to do that until kids can be vaccinated? Cause there is nothing we can do to protect them from serious disease disability, other than not having them catch it. 

There are others in the world that would rather we wait to vaccinate our low risk until they got their high risk folk vaccinated. But here we are. There will always be a population at risk.

 

ETA: I think I am very aware of the effect of the virus on other countries because of the kids I write there. I have not even found a way to mention I am vaccinated in my letters because all I can think is "How wealthy this makes me seem when their parents and grandparents don't even have the option to get a vaccine"  I keep encouraging them to wash their hands and keep their distance -- but even for keeping apart -- that's another privilege I have. Some of them are rural and maybe somewhat able to do it? But those who live in the cities? Not so much.

 

I'm looking for a video I saw about a girl in a slum who was trying to do the right things to keep her mom safe. And even as she says she tries to keep her distance--you see the people all around and how close the houses are together.

 

 

 

Edited by vonfirmath
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I’m very worried about this “as contagious as chicken pox” thing. I didn’t get chicken pox until I was 35, and I still remember exactly how I caught it. 

My mom was in the hospital after some major surgery and I was on the elevator on my way down to the coffee shop to pick up some snacks for my dad and me, when a guy stepped on to the elevator with the worst acne I had seen in a long time. He had pimples all over his face and down his neck. (That was kind of a spoiler alert right there. 😉 )

So a few days later, my skin started to break out and it was so weird, because my skin was always clear and that morning, there were several pimples on my face. I went into dh’s office to tell him I was leaving for the hospital to go visit Mom and his assistant walked in and said, “You don’t know you have chicken pox, do you?” 

What can I say? She was an experienced Mom who knew these things, and I was someone who didn’t have kids yet and never even thought of things like chicken pox. But yeah, I was a dimwit.

So my poor dad ended up spending 24/7 in the hospital with Mom because obviously I couldn’t go back there with chicken pox, and I got Zovirax and was fine within a few days. I still worry that I might have infected people before I knew I had it, but at least I did find out I had it on the first day I started breaking out, so I’m hopeful I didn’t make anyone else sick.

But the thing is, I caught it in an elevator. I am positive I got it from that guy. And we might have been on the elevator for a minute. It was only a few floors, so I can’t imagine it was longer than that. So if Delta is that contagious, I am going to be even more paranoid than ever.

Ugh.

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On 7/29/2021 at 7:12 PM, frogger said:

It would be interesting to see actual hospitalizations. I know some vaccinated are hospitalized but not sure of the extent. Curious how common it is. 

Over the period 1 February - 21 June,
733 (63%) people were hospitalised having had no vaccine
74 (6.4%) were less than 21 days after their first dose (for people having 2 doses, which is nearly all of them)
162 (13.9%) had had their first dose more than 21 days previously but not had dose #2 (and needed it)
173 (14.8%) had received both doses (any length of time prior).

Proportions during this time changed dramatically, but the 14.8% is likely to have come out of 40-50% of the population, whereas the 63% came out of 20-30% of the population. So vaccines are quite protective.

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4 hours ago, vonfirmath said:

Vaccinations protect you from severe disease. Vaccinated are still catching delta and still spreading it just as much as unvaccinated. There is also significant hospitalized population that is vaccinated as well.

That is not what the CDC said. They have stated that vaccines still significantly reduce the chances of getting infected to begin with, but the percentage of vaccinated people who do get infected tend to have viral loads similar to unvaccinated people. And according to the CDC, 97% of hospitalizations are in the unvaccinated — do you consider the the other 3% a "significant population"? 

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4 hours ago, vonfirmath said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/29/cdc-mask-guidance/?fbclid=IwAR0DiAkmJNCPQmiS9EwiyfZNwblxupp61fs1aWh0iKHLZ6VSkdH5L5AsRDA

 

"'The war has changed'  Internal CDC document urges new messaging, warns delta infenctions likely more severe.

 

My takeaway:

--Vaccinations protect you from severe disease. Vaccinated are still catching delta and still spreading it just as much as unvaccinated. There is also significant hospitalized population that is vaccinated as well.

"“We really need to shift toward a goal of preventing serious disease and disability and medical consequences, and not worry about every virus detected in somebody’s nose,” Neuzil said. “It’s hard to do, but I think we have to become comfortable with coronavirus not going away.”

I agree. It is too bad my RN friend who works in an Anchorage ER is already getting tons of overtime and has to take care of twice as many patients as they used to per level. So if the the level of care was at two patients per nurse in 2019, the same level of care is 4 patients per nurse currently. She said there is more biking accidents too so it isn't all Covid. More people riding bikes is also an issue and they can't find more nurses to hire since there is so much competition for them.  Last time I had dinner with her she kept repeating, "Don't get injured, don't get sick, don't get in an accident, don't fall in the bathtub. There is no one to take care of you." 

 

I don't know what to say anymore. It seems hopeless and those stuck in the medical profession are going to pay a high price.

Edited by frogger
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4 hours ago, vonfirmath said:

My takeaway:

--Vaccinations protect you from severe disease. Vaccinated are still catching delta and still spreading it just as much as unvaccinated. There is also significant hospitalized population that is vaccinated as well.

 

Vaccinated people who are infected spread it just as much as unvaccinated people who are infected.  Vaccinated people are still less likely to become infected in the first place.  
 

The news has been miserable at communicating this because they are trying to say two things at once.  There was a hope that vaccinated people who became infected might have lower viral loads and be less likely to spread it. The new evidence shows this is probably not true.  And vaccines are less effective at preventing infection from delta than from previous variants.  But that doesn’t mean that the vaccine isn’t more effective at stopping delta than no vaccine.

If you get sneezed on by a random person in the grocery store you’re still eight times more likely to have gotten a face full of covid if the person is unvaccinated.

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2 hours ago, Catwoman said:

According to this article, Delta can be spread in fleeting contacts of only 5-10 SECONDS.

I am hoping someone has information to the contrary, because this is terrifying.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/24/its-in-the-air-you-breathe-what-you-need-to-know-about-sydneys-delta-covid-variant

Someone infected at the winery near us apparently said they just walked past the infected person and caught it.  Having said that we had positive cases fo to a lot of shops and so far no spread and it’s getting close to the 14 day mark so I suspect it’s only that way at certain parts of the course of infection or something.  

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18 minutes ago, Danae said:

Vaccinated people who are infected spread it just as much as unvaccinated people who are infected.  Vaccinated people are still less likely to become infected in the first place.  
 

The news has been miserable at communicating this because they are trying to say two things at once.  There was a hope that vaccinated people who became infected might have lower viral loads and be less likely to spread it. The new evidence shows this is probably not true.  And vaccines are less effective at preventing infection from delta than from previous variants.  But that doesn’t mean that the vaccine isn’t more effective at stopping delta than no vaccine.

If you get sneezed on by a random person in the grocery store you’re still eight times more likely to have gotten a face full of covid if the person is unvaccinated.

Part of the reason the media isn't communicating what you want it to communicate is because  vaccinated people's infections spread around 50% less than unvaccinated people's infections.

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Good article looking at why 10% of the population (across several countries) are non-compliant to covid restrictions. 

Extroverted, self-centred men less likely to comply with Covid restrictions, study suggests | Coronavirus | The Guardian

It talks about the cognitive openness thing, where people are less likely to seek our new information and experiences. I don't know if it's nature or nurture, but I wonder if fostering curiosity and treating anxiety can prevent some if it?

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1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

That is not what the CDC said. They have stated that vaccines still significantly reduce the chances of getting infected to begin with, but the percentage of vaccinated people who do get infected tend to have viral loads similar to unvaccinated people. And according to the CDC, 97% of hospitalizations are in the unvaccinated — do you consider the the other 3% a "significant population"? 

Quote from the article:

"It cites a combination of recently obtained, still-unpublished data from outbreak investigations and outside studies showing that vaccinated individuals infected with delta may be able to transmit the virus as easily as those who are unvaccinated. Vaccinated people infected with delta have measurable viral loads similar to those who are unvaccinated and infected with the variant."

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1 minute ago, vonfirmath said:

Quote from the article:

"It cites a combination of recently obtained, still-unpublished data from outbreak investigations and outside studies showing that vaccinated individuals infected with delta may be able to transmit the virus as easily as those who are unvaccinated. Vaccinated people infected with delta have measurable viral loads similar to those who are unvaccinated and infected with the variant."

Uh, yeah, that's exactly what I said: "vaccinated people who get infected tend to have viral loads similar to unvaccinated people." That does NOT mean they are catching and spreading it "just as much as the unvaccinated" — because they are significantly less likely to catch it to begin with. You keep ignoring that part.

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1 hour ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

Part of the reason the media isn't communicating what you want it to communicate is because  vaccinated people's infections spread around 50% less than unvaccinated people's infections.

 

9 minutes ago, Danae said:

Even better!

Eight times less likely to catch it and 1/2 as likely to spread it if you do. 

That is an old study and not accurate to the current variant.  Data moves quickly with a novel virus and a new variant, so dates matter.

Edited by melmichigan
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19 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Uh, yeah, that's exactly what I said: "vaccinated people who get infected tend to have viral loads similar to unvaccinated people." That does NOT mean they are catching and spreading it "just as much as the unvaccinated" — because they are significantly less likely to catch it to begin with. You keep ignoring that part.

Unvaccinated people who are not infect do not spread it either.

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10 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

Unvaccinated people who are not infect do not spread it either.

🙄🙄🙄 Except that.they are much, much, much more like to become infected in the first place..   

Maybe some charts will help visualize the (very large) difference- this article has lots of charts compare # of vaxed vs unvaxed infected. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/07/30/key-numbers-cdcs-new-assessment-delta-variant/

Edited by Matryoshka
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7 minutes ago, Plum said:

If that is the case, then we have a problem. They finally admitted SARS-CoV-2 Alpha is airborne. Now Delta is super contagious. I hate to bring it up yet again but eyes are a mucus membrane as well and people are walking around with their n95’s but no eye protection? They aren’t even talking about it? Anyone ever talk to anyone in infection control? 

I think you probably mean talking about it in the general public. We are told to wear eye protection, as well as masks, at work, although the compliance with eye protection is not as good as with masks.

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19 minutes ago, Plum said:

If that is the case, then we have a problem. They finally admitted SARS-CoV-2 Alpha is airborne. Now Delta is super contagious. I hate to bring it up yet again but eyes are a mucus membrane as well and people are walking around with their n95’s but no eye protection? They aren’t even talking about it? Anyone ever talk to anyone in infection control? 

I agree! The only time I have been inside a building since the entire pandemic started was when I needed a mammogram, and I made sure to wear both an N95 mask and eye protection. I felt kind of ridiculous, but it turned out that the tech was wearing them, too, so I felt better about it. 

I keep asking different doctors about how likely it is to catch Covid via the eyes, and they all act like, “Well… it could happen, but it’s unlikely,” and when I ask them how they know it’s unlikely, they never seem to have any statistics. 

Don’t get me wrong — if there are no statistics, there are no statistics, but don’t act like people probably don’t need eye protection if you actually have no clue about it. 

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@YaelAldrichhttps://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/29/delta-variant-israel-to-give-pfizer-covid-booster-shots-to-elderly-.html
“Israeli health officials plan to offer booster shots of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine to people over age 60 as the shot’s effectiveness appears to wane as the delta variant spreads across the world, NBC News confirmed Thursday.

The heads of health maintenance organizations that have been administering the Pfizer vaccine will begin administering third shots Sunday, according to NBC News. The booster shots are available for patients above 60 who have already received their second shot at least five months earlier.

The country’s Health Ministry reported last week that the two-dose vaccine is now just 39% effective in Israel where the highly transmissible delta variant is the dominant strain. The shot still works very well in preventing people from getting seriously sick, Israeli officials said, demonstrating 88% effectiveness against hospitalization and 91% effectiveness against severe illness.

The data out of Israel, which began vaccinating its population ahead of many other countries, is bolstering arguments from drugmakers that people will eventually need to get booster shots to protect against emerging variants.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla on Wednesday doubled down on his comments that people will need a third dose of the vaccine to maintain its high level of protection against the virus. The U.S. drugmaker published new data Wednesday from a company-funded study that showed the vaccine’s efficacy dropped to about 84% after four to six months.

“We have seen also data from Israel that there is a waning of immunity and that starts impacting what used to be what was 100% against hospitalization. Now, after the six-month period, is becoming low 90s and mid-to-high 80s,” Bourla said on CNBC’s “The Exchange.”

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Food and Drug Administration and the World Health Organization have said they don’t recommend Covid booster shots at this time, citing a lack of data. U.S. and world health officials have said they are looking at the Israeli research, which was not peer-reviewed and was scant on details.

“We have to be mindful that, with time, the effectiveness of these vaccines may wane,” Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease professor at the University of Toronto, said in a recent interview.”

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