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At what point would you lock down again?


Not_a_Number

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51 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Yes. I'm seeing this, and it scares me. We're one of the few holdouts who aren't joyfully jumping into in-person activities right in the midst of Delta... 

One of my Illinois relatives lives in a county with the same vaccination rates as my Texas county: 43% of total population fully vaccinated, 51% of 12 and up. These aren't great stats, but the Illinois relatives say that my county is very dangerous, but theirs is totally safe.

Maybe it is safe-ish right now in their county, but that's only because Delta hasn't arrived.  When it gets there, they'll be just as vulnerable as I am right now if their county rates do not pick up. 

ETA: their county has double the population of mine. When Delta arrives, they have a lot more wood to burn that we do. 

Edited by MissLemon
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1 minute ago, Corraleno said:

It's shocking how many times I've seen posts on social media about how stupid it is to take a vaccine that is "only 95% effective" for a disease that is "99% survivable." And it's always said like that's some really clever gotcha, proof of how much smarter they are than the pro-vax idiots. Like everyone knows 99 is a bigger number than 95 — Duh!

It's amazing what people can come up with when they compare completely different numbers that it makes NO SENSE to compare. 

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https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/21/us/conservative-talk-show-host-phil-valentine-dies-covid-19/index.html

See I just do not get the self assuredness that people have that they won't die or have permanent damage or long covid.  I just don't know where they come up with this amazing belief that they will be unscathed. That is certainly not a confidence I have even though I have no special reason to believe I would be susceptible to a bad case either. I really don't think anyone can predict this, and especially so with delta variant.

So sad. So very, very sad.

Edited by Faith-manor
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Well back to the lockdown question ....

Our superintendant sent out an email today with a link to a flow chart re quarantines for kids depending on whether they are vaxed or masked or neither.

Apparently they have loosened the rules for quarantines if you are masked.

I believe this is being done to encourage people to mask their school kids who are not vaxed, since it probably can't be mandated.

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1 minute ago, Faith-manor said:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/21/us/conservative-talk-show-host-phil-valentine-dies-covid-19/index.html

See I just do not get the self assuredness that people have that they won't die or have permanent damage or long covid.  I just don't know where they come up with this amazing belief that they will be unscathed. That is certainly not a confidence I have even though I have no special reason to believe I would be susceptible to a bad case either. I really don't think anyone can predict this, and especially so with delta variant.

So sad. So very, very sad.

I have no idea where people get it, either. I can kind of see why people feel relatively convinced their kids will be OK (I don't exactly feel that, but I get it), but people in their 30s/40s/50s? The stats are kind of scary. 

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7 hours ago, Junie said:

Do we know that this is true?

One vaccine hesitant person in my family doesn't know anyone who has had COVID.  (Or at least won't admit it.)

The other vaccine hesitant people in my family who have now gotten their first shot knew more people who got really sick from the vaccine than who got really sick with COVID.  It took some work to convince them to get vaccinated.

I don’t know anyone directly that has been hospitalized or died from Covid.  Several second order people, family of friends, but no one that I know personally.  I know of 1 person who *may* have died of a blood clot from J&J.  

Edited by HeartString
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9 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I think at the point one knows family of friends, it's already pretty close, though... 

True!  I’m just glad that most of my close family is vaxed at this point.  I’ve made my peace with the high-risk,anti-vax ones, for the most part.  
 

For a long time I didn’t know anyone that had even had Covid, then only a few people, now it’s gotten very close with people canceling plans to get together (outside)because they had tested positive day before.   

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9 minutes ago, HeartString said:

True!  I’m just glad that most of my close family is vaxed at this point.  I’ve made my peace with the high-risk,anti-vax ones, for the most part.  
 

For a long time I didn’t know anyone that had even had Covid, then only a few people, now it’s gotten very close with people canceling plans to get together (outside)because they had tested positive day before.   

I knew people in the earliest wave in NYC, then there was a relative lull. I expect the fall to include lots of people testing positive, but they'll mostly be vaxxed... of course, the kids won't be 😕 . 

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I did a grocery shopping, put a lot of stuff in the chest freezer, and am doing another one this week. I will have three months of food for the most part. Obviously we would run out of eggs and a few things like that, but I could adjust menus to account for staying shut down if I couldn't get these things with curbside pick up. I am making salsa and pasta sauce at the end of this week. The salsa is something I run through the blender and use for enchiladas and as a base for tortilla soup.

Two places that I had gig piano jobs lined up for mid September begged me not to cancel and wait to see where cases go. I said that I would consider it IF they go to 25% capacity and a strictly enforced mask mandate. They are thinking about it. My very last gig on the maybe list was for a vocal student who needed an accompanist for her senior recital. She is vaxed, I am vaxed, her professors are vaxed. So with a masked, small audience would have been okay I think. But the school has officially announced no live performances. Her adviser did a degree audit, and found a sentence in the school catalog that said in the case that senior recitals are canceled due to natural disaster, illness, death in family, and other extreme circumstances, other performance experience can be considered in its place. She has had a ton of solos in the college choir over the years, lead parts in musicals, etc. so she has been cleared to graduate in December without the recital. That is off my plate now.

So it looks like we are in a position to hunker down. Right now our area of Michigan is doing okay, but by winter when everyone is driven indoors but doesn't want to stay home, mask, or socially distance, it will probably explode. I have become so anti-social because of how people behave and treat each other here that I am beginning to wonder if it will bother me at all!

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I can’t find the thread on mandating vaccines for school employees. Our state has mandated this (to my relief). It has also mandated vaccines for HCWs and local health care organizations are totally on board. I am starting to hear some grumblings from the few vaccine holdouts in those fields. I don’t know quite how to respond in person (I don’t tend to bring this up in person- it’s different here where it’s an open debate). As far as I can tell, none of these people are actually worried about the possible side effects of the vaccine. They are just against being told to do something for the greater good of public health because that’s “socialism “. 

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4 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I can’t find the thread on mandating vaccines for school employees. Our state has mandated this (to my relief). It has also mandated vaccines for HCWs and local health care organizations are totally on board. I am starting to hear some grumblings from the few vaccine holdouts in those fields. I don’t know quite how to respond in person (I don’t tend to bring this up in person- it’s different here where it’s an open debate). As far as I can tell, none of these people are actually worried about the possible side effects of the vaccine. They are just against being told to do something for the greater good of public health because that’s “socialism “. 

I hear that in my area. Same folks are very PRO forcing a lot of their beliefs on other people through legislation. So really it is just a red herring. They aren't worried about "socialism" and are actually all for an authoritarian government, just one that authorizes their personal agenda or advances their religious beliefs. Total double standard.

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46 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

Most people are good at ignoring what they don't want to face. You see it all of the time. People are not good at reacting to threats that they can't see. 

To be fair, we are talking about the same kind of people that thought saying something had a 3% death rate was different than saying it had a 97% survival rate. 

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2 hours ago, Faith-manor said:

Well, let's just bring back polio, diphtheria, small pox, and measles! It is so enjoyable to have those outbreaks ravage entire communities.  (Dripping sarcasm) How many kids can we shove into the grave????? 

Sigh. I guess that is one way to combat global climate change. Just put the Grim Reaper in the driver's seat and buckle up for a good season of back to back plagues.

I honestly think some people who are against only the Covid shots will mistakenly think this is only about Covid shots and actually support this without realizing it. 

If I get measles or something as a nosocomial infection, I will be suing the pants off the healthcare system. 

I am just stunned. 

20 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

I hear that in my area. Same folks are very PRO forcing a lot of their beliefs on other people through legislation. So really it is just a red herring. They aren't worried about "socialism" and are actually all for an authoritarian government, just one that authorizes their personal agenda or advances their religious beliefs. Total double standard.

I responded similarly to the person advocating against all vaccine mandates in every facet of life in my state. 

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1 hour ago, Faith-manor said:

I hear that in my area. Same folks are very PRO forcing a lot of their beliefs on other people through legislation. So really it is just a red herring. They aren't worried about "socialism" and are actually all for an authoritarian government, just one that authorizes their personal agenda or advances their religious beliefs. Total double standard.

Yes, I love the current legislation being considered wanting to ban vaccine mandates and masks by employers here as well. 😖 "The measure would make it illegal for employers to fire or to refuse to hire someone who refuses vaccinations or masks." 

 

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11 minutes ago, melmichigan said:

Yes, I love the current legislation being considered wanting to ban vaccine mandates and masks by employers here as well. 😖 "The measure would make it illegal for employers to fire or to refuse to hire someone who refuses vaccinations or masks." 

 

I cannot remotely imagine how to justify not allowing a private business the freedom to set its own safety standards.  Why is that not overreaching?  The unvaccinated are not a protected class.  

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2 hours ago, Faith-manor said:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/21/us/conservative-talk-show-host-phil-valentine-dies-covid-19/index.html

See I just do not get the self assuredness that people have that they won't die or have permanent damage or long covid.  I just don't know where they come up with this amazing belief that they will be unscathed. That is certainly not a confidence I have even though I have no special reason to believe I would be susceptible to a bad case either. I really don't think anyone can predict this, and especially so with delta variant.

It really is so sad, because I know he and others like him really do (did) believe that Covid is not a risk to them and that the shot would be somehow worse. And now he’s gone, like so many others. I have heard many people say exactly the same he did (including here on this board), that they feel they are not at risk for severe Covid. I always wonder why some people think they are bullet proof when it’s clear at this point there is no group that is naturally immune to serious sequlae or death from this disease. 

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1 hour ago, melmichigan said:

Yes, I love the current legislation being considered wanting to ban vaccine mandates and masks by employers here as well. 😖 "The measure would make it illegal for employers to fire or to refuse to hire someone who refuses vaccinations or masks." 

Will this affect more than just Covid shots like the stuff pending in Ohio.

Ugh.

1 hour ago, FuzzyCatz said:

I cannot remotely imagine how to justify not allowing a private business the freedom to set its own safety standards.  Why is that not overreaching?  The unvaccinated are not a protected class.  

Welcome to the new conservatism. Just like the old conservatism...um, wait, no it's not.

 

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Parents Are Not Okay - The Atlantic

We’re not even at a breaking point anymore. We’re broken.

By Dan Sinker

It was two weeks, originally. Who couldn’t do two weeks with the kids at home? Two weeks to bend the curve. It was simple.

Then it was two months—because nothing bent—and, well, we did two weeks and that went okay, so two months would be doable, right? Right?

And then it was summer, and kids are always home in the summer, so how was that different? Sure, we can’t go anywhere, but we’ll just do a little more TV, a little more iPad, a little more of everything we’re already doing. Besides, school is just around the corner and finally they’ll go back.

Except they didn’t. 

It’s enough to bring a parent to tears, except that every parent I know ran out a long time ago—I know I did. Ran out of tears, ran out of energy, ran out of patience. Through these grinding 18 months, we’ve managed our kids’ lives as best we could while abandoning our own. It was unsustainable then, it’s unsustainable now, and no matter what fresh hell this school year brings, it’ll still be unsustainable.

All this and parents are somehow expected to be okay. We are expected to send our kids off into God knows what, to work our jobs and live our lives like nothing’s wrong, and to hold it all together for months and maybe now for years without ever seeing a way out. This is not okay. Nothing is okay. No parent is okay, and I’m not sure how we come back from this.

Parents aren’t even at a breaking point anymore. We’re broken. And yet we’ll go on because that’s what we do: We sweep up all our pieces and put them back together as best we can. We carry on chipped and leaking and broken because we have no other choice. And we pray that if we can just keep going, our kids will survive too.

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The infection/death rates in the UK have been high, but I don't know anyone who had Covid badly here.  An enormous percentage of deaths in the first wave were in care homes, but my mother's care home was not affected (they have stable staff and it seems to have been agency staff moving from home to home who were unwittingly spread it).  The only relative who had a bad case (not hospitalised) was living in Brazil - he's fine now.

Here, it seems to depend also on your social circle: most people I know were able to work from home.

I am nevertheless pretty fierce on precautions.

Edited by Laura Corin
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We just lost my husband's cousin this week. I don't know that he wasn't vsccinated-I'd removed him from FB years back due to some really awful comments on some of my friends' posts (I'd already set my permissions so he didn'r see mine), but I'd have been amazed if he had been, short of Trump coming to town and picking him up to take him personally. 

I really feel for DH's aunt-she had already lost one son before this started, and while she tends conservative, she got vaccinated when she was eligible because she knew she was high risk. Now she's lost her only still local child. I'm also not sure whether she'll be able to keep regularly seeing her grandchild, who used to spend a lot of time with her while his dad was at work, because I believe his mom lives elsewhere, so she may have lost her teen grandchild as well. 

 

L lost an older gaming friend back in October. She likely caught it when she needed to go to the ER for a med reaction. L ended up cutting off a lot of the gaming group who were still in denial even after Nancy died. 

 

I've lost so many friends of friends and parents of friends, and know so many with long COVID. 

 

At the same time, though, I'm hoping high vaccination rates (over 98% fully vaxxed), masking indoors in public areas and testing will keep L safe, because being around other people and doing things with other people is so obviously needed. (Classes start today). 

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1 hour ago, Dmmetler said:

We just lost my husband's cousin this week. I don't know that he wasn't vsccinated-I'd removed him from FB years back due to some really awful comments on some of my friends' posts (I'd already set my permissions so he didn'r see mine), but I'd have been amazed if he had been, short of Trump coming to town and picking him up to take him personally. 

I really feel for DH's aunt-she had already lost one son before this started, and while she tends conservative, she got vaccinated when she was eligible because she knew she was high risk. Now she's lost her only still local child. I'm also not sure whether she'll be able to keep regularly seeing her grandchild, who used to spend a lot of time with her while his dad was at work, because I believe his mom lives elsewhere, so she may have lost her teen grandchild as well. 

 

L lost an older gaming friend back in October. She likely caught it when she needed to go to the ER for a med reaction. L ended up cutting off a lot of the gaming group who were still in denial even after Nancy died. 

 

I've lost so many friends of friends and parents of friends, and know so many with long COVID. 

 

At the same time, though, I'm hoping high vaccination rates (over 98% fully vaxxed), masking indoors in public areas and testing will keep L safe, because being around other people and doing things with other people is so obviously needed. (Classes start today). 

Wow, that is incredible.   I hope it works well for her.

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1 minute ago, SKL said:

At this point, the majority of people I personally know to be unvaxed were Biden supporters.

Wonder if that knowledge would change the tone and focus of these discussions.

No. Because I'm pretty sure your experience is an outlier. Probably many, many miles outside the norm.

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10 minutes ago, SKL said:

At this point, the majority of people I personally know to be unvaxed were Biden supporters.

Wonder if that knowledge would change the tone and focus of these discussions.

For me, not at all, because that’s totally irrelevant. People need to get over thinking there is some political thing about whether they protect themselves and others from this virus. It’s an equal opportunity life-wrecker. It doesn’t make someone a better [insert party here] to remain unvaccinated (though it does mean their party loses a vote if they get infected and die, so there is that). Seriously, people need to stop with this putting their politics over their life stuff. 

 

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4 minutes ago, KSera said:

For me, not at all, because that’s totally irrelevant. People need to get over thinking there is some political thing about whether they protect themselves and others from this virus. It’s an equal opportunity life-wrecker. It doesn’t make someone a better [insert party here] to remain unvaccinated (though it does mean their party loses a vote if they get infected and die, so there is that). Seriously, people need to stop with this putting their politics over their life stuff. 

This.  If you are choosing not to vax due to conspiracy theories and misinformation, I don't care who you are or what you believe in.  

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 At this point I'm not necessarily "locking down" but rather not going to the locations/towns/businesses that don't take serious covid protocols.

Here in Southern California, I've been tracking the cases this entire pandemic in our town and the town next to us. Both have pretty similar demographics; college towns, lots of professional upper-income jobs with a sizable lower income section of town. However, our town has continued to have at least 3.5 times fewer covid cases and the other town's cases are increasing much faster than ours too. On social media all through the last 1.5 years has been a stark difference:

Our social media: People take each other to task for *not* wearing masks.

Their social media: Anti-mask posts are frequent and very common.

Our town: parents petitioning school to add still more safety measures to school (above the many, many protocols in place.

Their town: people disrupt the school board mtg to loudly demand they remove even the mask mandate the state requires of them.

Our churches: Nearly every church is still meeting outside and or via zoom.

Their churches: only offer indoor services; no recommendations to wear masks. Our former church (I call it former. Husband would still like to go there someday) held their 90th anniversary yesterday - indoors, no masking, with food, lots of singing, and a children's choir.

Anyway, Long story long, we know so much already about how covid (including Delta) transmits that is not necessary to completely lock down but rather "spend our social energy" on participating in the safer activities in the safer locations. Not perfect, but not as depressing lonely for my outgoing husband.

Edited by ericathemom
Typos, of course.
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24 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

No. Because I'm pretty sure your experience is an outlier. Probably many, many miles outside the norm.

I live in NYC and most people I know in person are Biden supporters. That means that most unvaxxed people I know are Biden supporters, too.

It changes literally nothing about my opinion. Zero. Zilch.

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30 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

My dh and I talked about this the other day.

As much as I am in favor of COVID protocols, I really think that this is a terrible way to treat their students.

I'm in favor of fines, testing, masking -- even making the vaccine mandatory for new students.  I think that all of these protocols are great.

But to tell a junior or senior that they can no longer continue their program because of a vaccine mandate seems to be a really harsh punishment.

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9 minutes ago, Junie said:

My dh and I talked about this the other day.

As much as I am in favor of COVID protocols, I really think that this is a terrible way to treat their students.

I'm in favor of fines, testing, masking -- even making the vaccine mandatory for new students.  I think that all of these protocols are great.

But to tell a junior or senior that they can no longer continue their program because of a vaccine mandate seems to be a really harsh punishment.

I don't think they should be disenrolled. But I think the college has a right to push them into online classes or independent study. They should make a path for them to not have to transfer this year because the students and parents have paid in good faith many thousands of dollars for the program. 

A student I was working with has been waiting to perform a senior recital so she can graduate with her vocal performance degree. The college has yet again pulled the plug on live performances and lessons with student, accompanist, and professor in the same room. I get it. The voice prof has their mask off to demonstrate, the student has their mask office, most of the offices and practice rooms have practically zero ventilation. It is a pretty big hazard. On the other hand it, would mean she has to wait yet another semester to graduate. So the college told the students to submit a resume of the solo work they have done, and they will count the pieces. If they have done seven solos over the course of their years in college, including performances in church choirs, community choirs, musicals, etc., they are waving the recital requirement. So she is being allowed to graduate in December.

Except for certain labs, and of course medical clinicals, there is a way. But I guess I also see that the administration probably doesn't feel it should have to go to the work if they won't follow the mandate. Chances are this school requires other vaccines like tetanus and measles...very standard at a lot of colleges. If these students complied with those and not this one, then the administration probably does not think they have a leg to stand on. But, I would prefer, given the student loan debt situation, loss of scholarships when transferring, extra thousands paid in tuition because rarely does transferring keep a student on the path to graduate on time,  that the colleges offer a reasonable alternative because darn it all, they have sucked in a lot of money from most of these students! As a nation, we also have a vested interest in them getting done in a reasonable time frame, without huge debt, and participating in the work force.

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24 minutes ago, Spryte said:

Why would it?

Because people who mostly process this stuff through a political lens think everyone does so. 

As I've mentioned many times, I've had a falling out with a local ex-friend about COVID. She is incredibly left wing. She's more left wing than I am. It changed nothing. 

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24 minutes ago, Junie said:

My dh and I talked about this the other day.

As much as I am in favor of COVID protocols, I really think that this is a terrible way to treat their students.

I'm in favor of fines, testing, masking -- even making the vaccine mandatory for new students.  I think that all of these protocols are great.

But to tell a junior or senior that they can no longer continue their program because of a vaccine mandate seems to be a really harsh punishment.

The students they unenrolled did not submit either proof of vaccination or an application for a religious or medical exemption, and they were sent multiple warnings over the summer that they would be disenrolled if they didn't submit the required paperwork. Only 49 of the 238 were actually registered for fall classes, and those students have until August 25th to submit proof of vaccination or request for exemption, at which point they'll be allowed to reenroll. 

Edited by Corraleno
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24 minutes ago, Junie said:

But to tell a junior or senior that they can no longer continue their program because of a vaccine mandate seems to be a really harsh punishment.

There should probably be some way for the kids to finish the program even if they won't comply, but it's very reasonable to ask them not to set foot on campus. 

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This may have been discussed ad nauseum but I am still interested at how churches are responding to this.

My church has still not put out a new policy (as of this third? fourth? wave).  I hear it will be sometime soon. Our hospitals are already struggling though due to the HCW shortage mentioned in another thread.  Our numbers are higher than they were in Feb (pre vaccine). Right now the policy is "masks are optional for everyone." Only four or five people are masking out of 250.

A friend's church is requiring masking AND vaccination for all children's and youth workers.  I have not heard of that anywhere.  I am really surprised. Our area leans very conservative and it seems that lately has translated to "anti mask mandate." 

I used to think I was a conservative but I no longer know what I am. All I know is, there are kids in my church who cannot be vaxxed, and babies, and I feel i need to do my part and mask for them, even if I am only one of four or five.

 

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29 minutes ago, Junie said:

My dh and I talked about this the other day.

As much as I am in favor of COVID protocols, I really think that this is a terrible way to treat their students.

I'm in favor of fines, testing, masking -- even making the vaccine mandatory for new students.  I think that all of these protocols are great.

But to tell a junior or senior that they can no longer continue their program because of a vaccine mandate seems to be a really harsh punishment.

I don’t recall where I was reading more about this, but the school clarified that “disenroll” actually gives the students in question plenty of time to change their minds and get vaccinated before registration. It’s not as though they are simply being kicked out. They also said by the time it reached this point, the students had been contacted multiple times, even parents had been contacted.

Additionally they said many to most of the students hadn’t yet committed to the school, so it wasn’t going to affect really all that many. I don’t remember with any accuracy what numbers they put out, though.

If I find the article, I’ll link it here.

eta: @Corraleno said it much better 🙂 

Edited by MEmama
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5 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

The students they unenrolled did not submit either proof of vaccination or an application for a religious or medical exemption, and they were sent multiple warnings over the summer that they would be disenrolled if they didn't submit the required paperwork. Only 49 of the 238 were actually registered for fall classes, and those students have until August 25th to submit proof of vaccination or request for exemption, at which point they'll be allowed to reenroll. 

But there are likely going to be students who don't fall into these categories.

Other vaccine mandates that I have seen -- including for federal employees -- offer an opt out if they agree to frequent (weekly?) testing.

I think that UVa could offer something similar for this handful of students.

And then require vaccinations for any new students.

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