Our shelter in place just got extended through May 30 and people are DONE

[ktgrok]

4 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

Staying home as much as possible......for how long?  How long can your DH work from home (ignoring the fact that of course so many people can't do that)?  How long can you get most things delivered, disinfect everything with peroxide, etc etc?

How long do you believe that is sustainable for your family?  And to take it further out, how long do you believe that is sustainable for most families?

He will work at home as long as we feel it is needed. It is not ideal - we have 6 people and 3 70lb dogs and 2 cats  in 1450 square feet, with no dedicated office, and he's on the phone alot. But, we make it work. We can have groceries delivered indefinitely - we did that often before the pandemic. We have a drive up pharmacy window in town for medications. We have a walmart with curbside pickup (not that you can get a window lately, but it exists). How long can we disinfect everything with peroxide? Forever, I suppose, as long as we can get ahold of peroxide. Why on earth would there be a time limit on how long we can do that? It's a PIA, but so is paying taxes, and I don't see me getting out of that anytime soon, lol. 

We are working out with videos, doing yard work, etc. We are very lucky, i know, to have invested in things to enjoy at home before this - a swingset, pool (too cold to use it yet), etc. If not, we'd play in the hose or whatever. 

Eventually, as case numbers go down, we'll hopefully go hiking and such. 

We will do it as long as I think it is the right course of action, I don't have a date on it. 

Anne Frank and her family lived in tighter quarters with less, the pioneers went west and saw no one but their immediate families for months or even years. People set sail on boats for months on end not knowing when they'd see land, with no internet or phone or art supplies or amazon delivery. My family can hold out. I can't say what others situations are, but I know for many breaking the rules it is NOT about "can't" it is about "don't want to". The neighbors socializing every night, all up close, kids playing? That started right away. That wasn't a "can't stay 6 ft apart" it was a don't want to. 

People like that, who CAN isolate and are not, increase the risk for those that truly can't stay home, due to finances or needing medical care, etc. So yeah, since we can, and by doing so we reduce our risk AND the risk to everyone else, we will. 

[ktgrok]

5 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

That's an interesting thought process given that this thread is mostly about people not following SIP orders.  

 

ETA: Also though, the unemployed aren't just restaurant, mall, and theater employees.  They are engineers, factory workers, doctors, etc etc.  These places don't need general public customers, they need to get back to designing air bags, making lawn furniture, and treating illnesses.

True, but there is less risk in 10 people hanging out in the neighborhood than a mall full of hundreds or thousands of people. 

And yes, those people need to work as soon as possible, but doing so too soon means they shut back down, like the Tyson plant did recently when the virus went through it. The government didn't shut it down, the virus did. That is an example of how the economic impacts are not just from regulations, but the virus itself. 

[EmseB]

1 hour ago, Frances said:

But we did it to ourselves long before the stay at home orders or pandemic started. If leaders ignore facts and science, gut important programs and staff, and don’t actually have the ability to lead during a crisis, then the results are very predictable.

I think part of the issue is that we've never done this before. The are no control groups, randomized studies, or hard science and the SIP orders seem to vary quite a bit as do demographics. Social distancing and flattening the curve are not even necessarily quantifiable. We likely won't know what worked best and what didn't for several years and we will never know if what we didn't try would have worked better or worst. We won't even really be able to use Sweden as a control group because they are subject to the global economy and borders just like the rest of us so even if it would have been better to take their tack (which I don't feel like it would have) they will be on the receiving end of economic depression like the rest of us.

[EmseB]

2 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

They are being spooled back up in many places including places that still have Stay in Place orders. 

I am relived to hear that in the news and my hope it is not too late to reverse current trends!

[frogger]

2 hours ago, EmseB said:

. Pediatricians in particular across the US are taking a big hit and vaccination rates for babies and children are plummeting because people think it isn't safe to go to the doctor. My kids' peds are calling parents personally to try to get them to come in for shots because they are worried about VPDs making a comeback when restrictions are lifted.

  

 

Every state is different so excuse me if I'm misunderstanding but it sounds like the Peditricians are open and available to give vaccinations but are still in a slump because parents refuse to come in? 

 

I would think that you are showing that the virus will affect the economy even if the gov't doesn't make mandates.

[TCB]

23 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

That's an interesting thought process given that this thread is mostly about people not following SIP orders.  

 

ETA: Also though, the unemployed aren't just restaurant, mall, and theater employees.  They are engineers, factory workers, doctors, etc etc.  These places don't need general public customers, they need to get back to designing air bags, making lawn furniture, and treating illnesses.

I agree! So let's all figure out ways of doing that while at the same time not having everyone get sick at the same time and protecting the vulnerable. I may not be seeing things straight, but I feel like the first hurdle to doing that is actually getting some of us to be able to see the problem with this virus. I feel like people are trying to apply their past experience to this when thinking about it, and are unable to fathom that this is outside any experience they have had. I'm 56 years old, I'm a nurse, and I have never experienced anything like this before. It's hard to apply anything to it because I'm not sure anyone has a clear idea about what will happen. I'm pretty risk adverse to it because I don't want to have to work in conditions like Italy, Spain or NYC, so I want things to be done carefully and thoughtfully, using the best knowledge we have ( which is difficult because protocols at work seem to change on a weekly or even daily basis to try and keep up with the best knowledge of the moment). 

I feel exhausted trying to deal with all the 'just like flu' ' no one's going to take away my rights' stuff around me. When I say deal I mean hear it without my head exploding. I used to try and discuss it and reason with people but I've mostly given that up now. I have drastically reduced the amount of people on my FB feed and that has helped my state of mind considerably. My dh keeps telling me to just not look but I get work messages on there and then I get sucked in!

If we could somehow work together and try and solve the problem instead of dividing and fighting we could probably figure it out.

 

ETA - fix typos

Edited April 28, 2020 by TCB

[Arcadia]

14 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

We all know that the schools are not going to reopen in the Fall and probably much beyond that as well ... online schooling and online private tutoring is how it is going to pan out eventually even though the school closures are until June, officially.

My neighbors are still hoping and they are frustrated that schools are still closed even though they were the ones petitioning for schools to be closed. A neighbor honestly thought schools will reopen in May for our county when SIP ends. People are still hoping June ACT won't be cancelled.

[SeaConquest]

Just now, square_25 said:

Can't speak for all Jews, but I didn't. 

 

Neither did I.

[ktgrok]

15 minutes ago, frogger said:

 

Every state is different so excuse me if I'm misunderstanding but it sounds like the Peditricians are open and available to give vaccinations but are still in a slump because parents refuse to come in? 

 

I would think that you are showing that the virus will affect the economy even if the gov't doesn't make mandates.

exactly. lifting mandates doesn't fix the economy. 

 

 

1 minute ago, kdsuomi said:

The problem before was that he would never detail what's included in the plan. Today he did. You plan on staying home for these next few years because you're privileged enough to do that. Most people aren't, so we want to know some details. People weren't even asking for a lot, just something. (He's also been saying a matter of weeks for at least a week and doesn't give a fig about the government guidelines.)

No church in buildings, weddings, personal care businesses, sports, or entertainment for the next few months at least. At least now people know all of those things are completely off the table.

It's so nice when people assume we want things that we haven't said we want.  

Ok, my apologies. All the governors I've seen have been referring to the federal guidelines, I didn't realize yours said he wasn't interested in following them. That does leave you in limbo. 

[ktgrok]

Just now, happysmileylady said:

 

Cool 🙂  I just wondered, cause the the difference between this and the Holocaust is so vast.  

I get that. I grew up in a very Jewish place (I was an adult before I realized not everyone grew up playing dreidel in school, lol) so usually but not always feel I have an idea of what is/isn't offensive in that regard. But had I been wrong I would have retracted and apologized. 

 

[ktgrok]

1 minute ago, happysmileylady said:

No, but the economy can't start recovery until we can start getting people back to work.  It doesn't have to be fixed overnight (and it won't be.)  But the fix has to start soon.  And this thread is specifically about an extension of mandates until 5/30, and I think that's too far off.  I think we have to at least start getting some (and then more and more, gradually) people back to work.  

How do you think we should do that? What do you think should open, and when? And what would be a trigger to tighten things up again?

Edited April 28, 2020 by Ktgrok

[TCB]

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

I would love that. That's why I keep asking people what they would like to have happen. 

To be honest, on March 9th, I was definitely in the "Meh, we're all going to get it anyway" camp. That is because, I admit, I wasn't paying attention. I wasn't looking at what was going on in Italy. I felt protected by how isolated the US often is from pandemics, and by the fact that the government usually solves this for us without us knowing much. 

Then I looked into the numbers. And I looked at what was happening in Italy. And then I thought about what it would mean if we all got it and I got extremely freaked out. And then we started staying home, because it was what I personally could do to make things better, which isn't much. 

So what I really want to know is what people want to have happen. And if we can find some commonalities, we should agree on HOW to make them happen. And we can write to our politicians and ask for things that we think should happen. But first, we need to have a realistic idea of what we want. 

Here's what I want:

1. I want all work places to be thinking about how they can rearrange things, or try new things to have as many people as possible, who can't work from home, be able to go to work again. People tell me that many are doing this but I don't watch TV and I don't see it around me - because I don't go out except to go to work - so I will have to trust that this is in fact happening.

2. For the moment - until we can see how things work - I want us all to go to work carefully, and to shop for essentials carefully, and then stay at home or away from other people as much as possible.

3. I want a quick, affordable, reliable test to be in widespread use so that people can be tested quickly and accurately before going to a healthcare location and maybe even before going into work, especially if they work in a place that is harder to keep safe.

4. I want someone to invent a really comfortable, affordable, effective mask that can be worn for longer periods of time when we have to be in places that might have trouble keeping the environment safe.

5. Like everyone probably I want a safe, effective vaccine as quickly as possible.

6. For the moment, and especially until the mask, test, vaccine are a reality, I want events that involve crowds not to happen.

7. Until we have evidence that it doesn't help keep us safer, I'd like as many people to wear masks when out amongst other people as possible.

8. I want good supplies of PPE so that we can do our jobs and feel safe. This should really be at the top of the list.

 

Not sure how realistic you all will think these wants are but that's my wish list.

[frogger]

N/M

Edited April 28, 2020 by frogger

[Arcadia]

@mathnerd because I need a break from doing my homework anyway (ETA: population estimates are from 2018 except for Monte Sereno which is 2016 estimate)

	Population Estimate	27-Apr-20	cases/population
San Jose	1030119	1398	0.00136
Palo Alto	66666	68	0.00102
Milpitas	80430	73	0.00091
Sunnyvale	140060	118	0.00084
Santa Clara	129488	101	0.00078
Los Altos	30531	22	0.00072
Los Gatos	30680	22	0.00072
Morgan Hill	45135	32	0.00071
Campbell	42466	29	0.00068
Gilroy	58756	39	0.00066
Mountain View	73997	44	0.00059
Cupertino	60170	26	0.00043
Saratoga	30599	12	0.00039
Los Altos Hills	8559	<10
Monte Sereno	3554	<10

Edited April 28, 2020 by Arcadia

[Frances]

36 minutes ago, EmseB said:

I think part of the issue is that we've never done this before. The are no control groups, randomized studies, or hard science and the SIP orders seem to vary quite a bit as do demographics. Social distancing and flattening the curve are not even necessarily quantifiable. We likely won't know what worked best and what didn't for several years and we will never know if what we didn't try would have worked better or worst. We won't even really be able to use Sweden as a control group because they are subject to the global economy and borders just like the rest of us so even if it would have been better to take their tack (which I don't feel like it would have) they will be on the receiving end of economic depression like the rest of us.

But that is the very nature of pandemics and why the CDC has specific training programs and protocols. Public health officials acknowledge it is not an exact science and we only know lots of things in hindsight. But Leaders choosing to ignore established best practices has consequences. As does electing people lacking the character or temperament to lead in a crisis. Here’s another example of a leader following recommendations of scientists and public health officials and getting very high approval from both sides for it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/us/politics/mike-dewine-ohio-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
 

 

[Terabith]

15 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

I'm sorry -- I wasn't implying that was all of California. Just that there's a question about how to open up in a place with very different stages of the pandemic. 

You mean Ohio will do it region by region? Yes, that makes sense. I'm surprised they aren't doing something like that in California. Is nothing going to be open until May 30th? 

Yes, I'm in Virginia, where northern Virginia has it widespread.  In a way, our governor did us a big favor when he said SAH order till June 10, announced very beginning of April.  But, while the virus is widespread in northern Virginia by DC, people here in southwestern VA are over the restrictions and talking about how it's pretty much over.....and it hasn't gotten here yet.  I mean, we have 80 cases in the area (city/ county/ neighboring town).  There's another 20 each in adjoining counties.  But by and large, we've spent economic and goodwill capital in lockdown and I'm worried that there won't be any left when it actually gets here.  Our hospitals are letting health care professionals go or cutting hours drastically, and lack of PPE is a huge concern.  But the no "elective" health care procedures can't go on much longer, and I'm worried that this is going to be bad when it really does arrive here in spades.  

[Arcadia]

@mathnerdpeople love the beaches 

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/04/28/coronavirus-update-san-mateo-deputies-handed-out-more-than-1000-stay-at-home-citations-and-warnings-over-weekend/
“SAN MATEO (CBS SF) — During the weekend surge to the San Mateo coastline, sheriff’s deputies handed out more than 1,000 citations and warnings for violations of the county’s stay-at-home order, officials announced Tuesday.

...

According to the statistics released Tuesday, deputies handed out 347 parking citations and 568 verbal warnings along coast on Saturday and Sunday.

Deputies also handed out 47 written warnings in Half Moon Bay, 83 on the north coast and 61 on the south coast. There were only 3 written warnings handed in areas away from the coast.

...

Last weekend, San Mateo County authorities told over 900 people to leave beaches after learning they were from outside the area, a violation of the county’s coronavirus shelter-in-place order. Under the county’s order (.pdf), people who are leaving their homes for outdoor recreation are required to stay within five miles from their residence.”

 

[ktgrok]

47 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

Eventually, it's probably going to kill millions anyway.  It's just a matter of what speed is acceptable.  

Well, slow enough for us to get better testing, better treatments, better understanding of the ways it works, and even a vaccine , would be great. 

43 minutes ago, StellaM said:

 

Delay enables more knowledge, better treatments, a possible vaccine. 

So, people feeling all nihilistic are welcome to feel that way, but they shouldn't, through their behaviours, impose that on others who see delay as a very positive and quite essential thing.

Yes

15 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Yes, I'm in Virginia, where northern Virginia has it widespread.  In a way, our governor did us a big favor when he said SAH order till June 10, announced very beginning of April.  But, while the virus is widespread in northern Virginia by DC, people here in southwestern VA are over the restrictions and talking about how it's pretty much over.....and it hasn't gotten here yet.  I mean, we have 80 cases in the area (city/ county/ neighboring town).  There's another 20 each in adjoining counties.  But by and large, we've spent economic and goodwill capital in lockdown and I'm worried that there won't be any left when it actually gets here.  Our hospitals are letting health care professionals go or cutting hours drastically, and lack of PPE is a huge concern.  But the no "elective" health care procedures can't go on much longer, and I'm worried that this is going to be bad when it really does arrive here in spades.  

You say it can't go on much longer, but that lack of PPE is a problem. Are you saying that they should start doing elective procedures without the proper PPE? 

[TheReader]

42 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

How do you think we should do that? What do you think should open, and when? And what would be a trigger to tighten things up again?

I feel like Gov Abbot's plan for TX is pretty decent. He's letting a team of scientists guide things, he's made sure that testing, PPE, hospital capacity, etc. is readily available; he's carefully watching state numbers/county numbers of reported cases and recovered cases (I believe he said we have the 4th highest number of recoveries, and more recovered cases than active cases now), and all the future phases of opening depend on 2-week minimum stats of improving/not worsening numbers. 

So phase 1, which starts May 1st, is that retail that was closed may open to 25% capacity only. Meaning the stores must limit shoppers to whatever is 25% of their building occupancy. There are detailed instructions on safety/health measures, as well, regarding masks, sanitizing, etc. and still providing shopping time/delivery/options for elderly or otherwise compromised/at risk populations. 

Should that continue without any spike in numbers (needing 2 weeks of declining data, I think), they can open up to 50% capacity. In specific counties with fewer than 5 cases (b/c TX is huge and vastly varied), which accounts for half of the counties (almost) in the state, they may open at 50% capacity right away provided they follow all the other guidelines and have sufficient hospital space. (Health care can open again, including dentists, etc., as long as hospitals keep 15% of capacity reserved for Covid patients). 

What happens after that, I don't know. Phase 1 only allows for retail, restaurants (not bars), movie theaters (who are saying they will stay closed), malls, and "outdoor sports with 4 or fewer participants".  We already have curb-side retail & restaurants open. As well as letting non-essential health care return. 

Phase 2, as I understand it, will add gyms, hair salons, and "additional outdoor sports with slightly more participants, hopefully" but no specifics there. 

So, it seems well thought out and safe to me. He's encouraging, strongly, that everyone maintain mask wearing and social distancing, and the detailed guidelines detail all of that (gov.texas.gov has it on the website, I think; it's called "Open Texas"). I know that retail has to provide hand sanitizer at the entrance, and encourage/require people to use it on entering and exiting, the 25% capacity rule, employees must be masked (and patrons encouraged to do so), and strict sanitizing guidelines are outlined. 

We've got to protect  the people of our country, both their lives, and their livelihoods. 

[EmseB]

51 minutes ago, frogger said:

 

Every state is different so excuse me if I'm misunderstanding but it sounds like the Peditricians are open and available to give vaccinations but are still in a slump because parents refuse to come in? 

 

I would think that you are showing that the virus will affect the economy even if the gov't doesn't make mandates.

It depends. Our children's hospital is closed to elective procedures as per the order and hemorrhaging money. In some places there is confusion about what the orders allow them to do and not do. My ped (I just went two days ago) said that's why doctors are calling in person -- to tell parents they absolutely need to come in for well baby checks and shots. But they also have to cancel other stuff deemed non essential. A doc I follow on Twitter said his hospital is no longer allowing outside peds in for new babies...and they claim it is to protect patients but the suspicion is that it is so the hospitalist can see all the babies and get the revenue for the hospital. Non-essential medical care is cancelled for peds and adults alike where I am per state orders.

But yes, the virus will effect the economy without mandates precisely because a lot of people will do what they view as self-preservational regardless. The argument is of course that not enough people would make enough right decisions without mandates to keep from overwhelming the medical system with cases. This happens for different reasons though, because someplace with wide mass transit use for essential workers is going to see a lot of cases even with mandates. For a lot of places, the mandates are causing a problem of underwhelm in hospitals which isn't good either because like all of us they need money and personnel to function.

[SeaConquest]

The governor just announced today that CA will be opening up regionally once we get to phase two, which is in just a matter of weeks. So, it really will not be a one-size-fits-all determination.

https://laist.com/latest/post/20200428/gov-newsom-coronavirus-physical-distancing-update

Also, Southern California is not having problems. I believe LA is the only place that was having high Covid rates. I haven't been following all of our counties, but SD is doing really well and OC and Ventura counties have already opened their beaches. So, I wouldn't characterize it as a "Southern California" issue.

https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/community_epidemiology/dc/2019-nCoV/status.html

ETA: More Details

 

FOUR PHASES TO FULLY LIFTING STAY-AT-HOME ORDERS

There are four phases in California's "Resilience Roadmap," Angell and Newsom said. The first two (we're currently in the first one) are:

• Phase 1: Safety and Preparedness

This includes making workplaces for essential workers as safe as possible. Newsom said community surveillance is essential in this phase.

The state will continue to expand testing, contact tracing, personal protective equipment (PPE) distribution and hospital surge capacity in this stage. It includes essential workplaces making physical and workflow adaptations, an essential workforce safety net, making PPE more widely available and individual behavior changes. There are also sector-by-sector safety guidelines being prepared for an expanded workforce.

• Phase 2: Lower Risk Workplaces

This includes gradually opening some lower risk workplaces with adaptations, including modifications to allow physical distancing.

Sectors listed by Angell include retail with changes like curbside pickup, manufacturing (of items like toys, clothing and furniture), offices (but only when telecommuting isn't possible) and opening more public spaces (like parks and trails).

It also includes modified school programs and child care providers reopening with adaptations. Summer programs and the school year may start sooner, with the state looking at late July or early August. Child care facilities are currently limited to essential workers but this would allow them to expand. The state wants to address learning gaps, ensure students and staff are safe in those schools, and allow parents to return to work.

This phase requires wage replacement to allow workers to stay home when they're sick, Angell said.

HOW TO GET FROM PHASE 1 TO PHASE 2

To move from Phase 1 to Phase 2, here are the indicators state officials are considering:

• Hospitalizations and ICU trends remain stable
• Hospital surge capacity maintained to meet demands if there are increased infections in the next stage from increased movement
• There is sufficient PPE to meet demands, including anticipating future needs and knowing PPE can be secured
• Sufficient testing capacity to meet demand
• Contact tracing capacity statewide, including working with local health authorities and governments to make sure capacity is there

Angell divided the actions needed to move to this next phase into three parts:

• Government Actions

This includes creating policies that allow people to stay home when they're sick and providing guidance on how to reduce risk.

• Business Actions

This includes businesses paying workers when they need to stay home sick, adapting to make workplaces lower risk and allowing employees to continue working from home when possible. Angell said the state will continue to encourage employers to have their employees work from home.

• Individual Actions

The state wants people to continue safety precautions like physical distancing and wearing face coverings, to avoid non-essential travel and to support and care for people who are at higher risk. That support includes making phone calls to check in on people and figuring out other ways to help them.

REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN STAY-AT HOME ORDERS

During Phase 2, counties can choose to relax stricter local orders at their own pace, according to Angell. State orders will still need to be followed but localities can either loosen or tighten restrictions, as needed.

More regional variations could be supported following Phase 2, once a statewide COVID-19 surveillance system has been made possible through testing, according to Angell. The state will consult and collaborate with local governments.

THE NEXT TWO PHASES

It will be months before we get to these next two phases, Newsom said, and these timelines can change if people are careless in their behavior.

• Phase 3: Higher Risk Workplaces

This allows higher risk workplaces to adapt and reopen. That includes personal care businesses such as gyms, hair salons and nail salons — any businesses that involve close proximity, Angell said. Entertainment venues, such as movie theaters and sports venues without live audiences, are also included here. This category also includes in-person religious services (churches, weddings).

• Phase 4: End of Stay-At-Home Order

This phase includes reopening with an expanded workforce at the highest risk workplaces. This includes large-scale events like concerts, convention centers and live audience sports. It requires therapeutics for coronavirus to be in place.

Edited April 28, 2020 by SeaConquest

[Terabith]

8 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

You say it can't go on much longer, but that lack of PPE is a problem. Are you saying that they should start doing elective procedures without the proper PPE? 

Okay, true.  Clearly it CAN go on indefinitely.  And of course they shouldn't do elective procedures without proper PPE.  But it will cause major hardship, pain, dysfunction, and loss of life if it goes on for long.  Cancer surgeries are being put off.  Procedures to relieve pain aren't being done, in an era when opioids won't be prescribed either.  

I'm not sure if the issue is that the PPE isn't there or if they are worried about conserving PPE for a surge in covid cases.  Which is an entirely rational thing to do, but again, when it's very possible it will be July or August before it gets here, that's a long time to leave people in medical limbo.  

I mean, what I'd LIKE to have happened, is for the federal government to have invoked the Defense Production Act back in January and started producing PPE in large quantities.  But, clearly that didn't happen.  I'm not entirely clear that anyone is manufacturing it now.  As far as I can tell, states are just scrambling to order this scarce resource from all over the country and it's getting confiscated.  

[Terabith]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

Oh, I have a long list of things I would have liked to have happen in January and February. But it's almost May, and it's futile to talk about that. (And they aren't all federal level, either.) 

On the one hand, places with empty hospitals are having a problem. On the other hand, as I posted in the big thread, we just had a high level ER doctor commit suicide due to the stresses of her job here in NYC. So... there are two sides to this coin. Either way, it sucks to be a health professional right now.  

Here are some things we all agree on, I think:

1) We can't sustain this level of unemployment for too long. 

2) We don't want anyone else to turn into New York. 

The only question is how to reconcile 1) and 2). 

Yeah.  I guess all I can really ask right now is for production of PPE to start/ ramp up as much as possible and implement as much testing as possible.  I have found it interesting how much disparity there is in testing availability around the country.  I think we should also utilize other ways to measure how prevalent the virus is in given areas, besides testing, since I guess we have to assume it's not likely to be readily available everywhere, however much it's needed in order to safely reopen.  The sampling via sewer systems seems like an out of the box solution that might give population level assessments.  

[KungFuPanda]

I hit refresh and lost my quotes. 😟

Here are the random thoughts that I can remember.

Maybe this should be a poll with a map feature, but do most of the people you know really get their science news from mainstream news outlets and politicians? 

What are your opinions on the WHO's statement that there is no scientific evidence that contracting the virus protects you from getting it again in the future and does this change how you feel about your "get it over with" plan?

Do you think that the goverment-required shut down means that if that restriction was lifted that all businesses would open?  How do you see this working out with so many kids out of school? 

When you are calculating the damage to the economy caused by the shutdown are you subtracting the economic damage the virus would do all by itself? 

 

This is not a trap.  You can answer.  I don't know how this will play out either.  I'm just trying to keep people alive over here and I do understand that people need to eat to stay alive.  I'm not feeling much of a political divide where I live.  EVERYONE is complying with the mask guidelines in public places of business and lots of people are now wearing them for walks around the neighborhood.  (My mother in another state reports that only half the people wear masks in grocery stores near her.) I live in a blue state with a Republican governor, so it's possible that the people most politically inclined to balk about the restrictions mind it less when their guy is telling them what to do.  It's also possible that I have no idea what's really going on because I've been on house arrest for 45 days. 

[Bootsie]

1 hour ago, Frances said:

But that is the very nature of pandemics and why the CDC has specific training programs and protocols. Public health officials acknowledge it is not an exact science and we only know lots of things in hindsight. But Leaders choosing to ignore established best practices has consequences. As does electing people lacking the character or temperament to lead in a crisis. Here’s another example of a leader following recommendations of scientists and public health officials and getting very high approval from both sides for it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/us/politics/mike-dewine-ohio-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
 

 

The CDC has training and protocols regrading disease and health.  That is very important, but it is one consideration of a leader.  I can see the CDC focused on preventing disease and suggesting measures that will best do that.  A leader also has to be concerned about whether people in the community will be able to eat--which depends on everything from tractor companies making parts to packaging of food to transporting food.  A leader has to be concerned about the emotional health of people.  A leader has to be concerned about the eduation of children, and many other things. 

Meteorologists may be very good at telling us what the models are saying about landfall of a hurricane; but the meteorologists are not in charge of the emergency plan for a city.  There are many other voices from people who are experts in other areas that need to have their voices heard.  Traffic speacilsts need to provide input on whether an evacuation plan will work or if we risk having thousands of cars sitting on the highway.  Medical professionals need to provide input as to the health risks involved in transporting some patients for evacuation.  Economists need to provide input into what will happen to prices and availability of supplies.  I think we would benefit from a broader, cross-disciplinary approach to dealing with this crisis. 

[AmandaVT]

1 hour ago, happysmileylady said:

So far, I think Ohio's plan is probably going in the right direction, though it's probably not perfect.

And I think a plan that intends to maintain SAH status quo for another month, that's probably headed in the wrong direction.

As I don't know the specific details about specific states, I can't comment on what each state is doing individually.

Basically , start slow.....start based on your specific area's situation (for example, areas that DO have enough PPE and bed space, vs places that still don't) but generally, start sooner rather than later.  

 

I think Vermont is doing a pretty good job so far. Our governor is starting to loosen up restrictions and plans on easing them weekly as long as we don't start spiking cases. He's calling it "a quarter turn of the spigot" or something like that. So 2 Fridays ago, he allowed landscapers and construction workers in teams of no more than 2 back to work along with people that work in low contact businesses, again up to 2 per office. Last Friday, he upped the number allowed to 5. Also, farmer's markets, garden supply shops and construction shops (I may have missed another type of store) can reopen for curbside pickup. He's hoping to loosen a bit more this Friday. 

He's relying on the Health commissioner and his team for guidance and has sent out extra unemployment checks for $1200 for the people that are struggling without jobs or with reduced hours right now. 

They've also started contact tracing for everyone that is positive and ramping up testing even more. 

[Ottakee]

50 minutes ago, StellaM said:

Nobody should be asking for elective procedures to open up unless nurses and doctors have adequate, effective PPE. 

No-one.

That's highly unethical.

But elective is a highly subjective thing.   I really need to see a specialist about a medical issue that is getting worse....can't get in until July as they aren't seeing patients/doing tests now.

My primary is doing what she can to help me and is trying to order tests.

They are "elective" in that the chance I will die by not having this test in the next week is very small.....BUT, there is also a larger risk of longer term health issues if they don't discover the reason behind what is going on ....and hopefully soon.

Elective might include cancer screenings, tests, etc that might not lead to death this week, but delaying them a few weeks/months could well affect the ultimate outcome for those patients.

I had a friend that (before covid) had an elective hysterectomy.  It was to the point that her choice was hysterectomy or blood transfusions....yet it was labeled as "elective".

There are also life enhancing procedures for children that NOT done in a timely manner makes them less effective long term.

I agree though that there are some truly elective procedures that certainly can wait.

[Corraleno]

1 hour ago, happysmileylady said:

Eventually, it's probably going to kill millions anyway.  It's just a matter of what speed is acceptable.  

 

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

I haven't joined the "rebels" yet, but I'm actually leaning toward the "Bring it on" stage, honestly. With no vaccine, the only way out of this thing is natural immunity. Since it's a novel virus, the only way to get immunity is to get the virus and recover. The only way to build the herd immunity we need to protect society is for a whole lot of people to become immune. 

 

4 hours ago, GoodGrief1 said:

 We need to accept that we are likely all going to get sick with this at some point and for most of us it will be okay. Sickness and death is always going to be a part of life.

But here we are now. Yes, people need to have the opportunity to work if they wish. We still need to protect the vulnerable, though now we have wasted a tremendous amount of resources that could have gone toward that endeavor. Yes, there is going to be a spike in occurrences of this particular illness. But then we will have fewer cases. That is the way herd immunity works.

 

70% of the US population is 220 million people, times an IFR of 1% = 2.2 million dead. That's the math. Which part of the math do people think is wrong?

Do people think we can somehow "protect the vulnerable" enough to bring the IFR down to 0.5%? Because that's still over 1 million dead. And there's no evidence that any country that isn't in extreme lockdown (like Norway) has been able to "protect the vulnerable" — like at all. And now we're reading about serious illnesses and fatalities in young children, strokes and heart attacks in 20-60 yr olds who seemed perfectly healthy, etc. And 40% of the US population has some kind of underlying condition that puts them at high risk. None of the people on this board, or in any news program, article, or YouTube video I have seen, have been willing to define who does (and does not) count as "vulnerable" and provide a plan that will protect those people despite the fact that no other country has accomplished it.

How do you handle 1-2 million deaths and not overwhelm the medical system? How do we get enough PPE to handle 10-20 million extra hospital admissions, with 1-2 million ICU admissions? How do morgues and funeral homes and cemeteries handle an extra 1-2 million deaths? 

How does the economy rebound when 20,000-30,000 people per week are dying? (and that's assuming the deaths could be evenly spread out over the course of a year)

I would love it if someone would please explain the math that lets the US quickly get to herd immunity, where 220 million people have been infected, without massive loss of life.

[Corraleno]

6 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

Well I don’t think, at this point, there is any reasonable path forward that most people could accept and live under for a year or two that wouldn’t involve loss of life in the >5 million range.  Between travel and exposure and waves of it going through nursing and rehab facilities, I’m pretty sure that whether it’s in six months or the next six weeks it’s a fact.  The likelihood of a vaccine, let alone an effective one, looks lower and lower at this juncture.

Are you saying you think the US is looking at >5 million deaths in the next year, and there's nothing we can do about it?

[Frances]

2 hours ago, Bootsie said:

The CDC has training and protocols regrading disease and health.  That is very important, but it is one consideration of a leader.  I can see the CDC focused on preventing disease and suggesting measures that will best do that.  A leader also has to be concerned about whether people in the community will be able to eat--which depends on everything from tractor companies making parts to packaging of food to transporting food.  A leader has to be concerned about the emotional health of people.  A leader has to be concerned about the eduation of children, and many other things. 

Meteorologists may be very good at telling us what the models are saying about landfall of a hurricane; but the meteorologists are not in charge of the emergency plan for a city.  There are many other voices from people who are experts in other areas that need to have their voices heard.  Traffic speacilsts need to provide input on whether an evacuation plan will work or if we risk having thousands of cars sitting on the highway.  Medical professionals need to provide input as to the health risks involved in transporting some patients for evacuation.  Economists need to provide input into what will happen to prices and availability of supplies.  I think we would benefit from a broader, cross-disciplinary approach to dealing with this crisis. 

I don’t disagree. But you also need leaders willing to consult and listen to trained professionals and that have the temperament and character to lead in times of crisis.

Edited to add that in Sweden, one of the countries to remain relatively open, their response was almost completely driven by the Public Health Authority, not politicians. Per their constitution, politicians can’t interfere with it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-herd-immunity.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Edited April 29, 2020 by Frances

[Pen]

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

Our order was recently extended to May 16th (at the earliest), but the pattern has been to add time in two week increments, so I predict it will soon be extended to May 30th (or at least through Memorial Day). I'm definitely seeing more and more evidence that people are fed up. I live in the mountains, and personally have had no trouble abiding with the stay-home order (I've mostly enjoyed it), but I'm currently leaning more toward the "enough already" group. 

 

I hear your frustration.

I want to suggest that you think things out and then write out a letter with your best  cogent ideas to your state elected government entities. 

I am commenting on a few points below where it jumps out at me that you need to do some rethinking. 

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

 I could be persuaded back toward supporting the lock-down if given more information from those in charge.

 

I definitely would suggest you express this to your Governor—a desire for more clear information and sense of what you are waiting for as an exit plan.  

Do you know what your area’s growth rate is?  How well set and supplied your hospitals are?  PPE for first responders? 

Are cleaning supplies back in stock? TP? 

 

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

Our (democrat) governor (New Mexico) just keeps tacking on two weeks at a time, saying to hold out for two more weeks, then two more weeks, then two more weeks, but never says exactly what we're waiting for, what the exit plan is, or what difference two more weeks is going to make. I don't understand why they can't give us some pegs on which to hang our hats, some benchmarks we can see with our own eyes, rather than just trying to keep the fear level up. I don't appreciate being kept in the dark. (I see from this thread that some government officials are being more transparent. I would appreciate the same for our state, given our sparse population, and arid environment.

 

Again, I think expressing all that is good.  Sparse population is important.  

Arid environment seems actually to be the opposite of what studies show.  Humid is better for control of the virus. 

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

I feel like our government sees us as little children or "pretty little wives" who "shouldn't worry our pretty little heads", but just trust and let the experts take care of things. We're not children, and we're perfectly capable of understanding what is going on. I can look at this thing and see that we're looking at months, not weeks. The flatter the curve, the longer the duration. Simple math. Why do they keep saying "two more weeks", over and over again? If we're going to be closed all summer, then say so, so we can plan accordingly. If they don't see a safe way to open schools in the fall, then say so. 

 

I know it seems hard to accept this, but there is a good chance that they homes don’t know. That they truly hope to be open sooner rather than later.

And they may be watching what happens elsewhere. 

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

Our daughter is in private school, and we need to decide by May 15th whether to keep her enrolled, or pull her out to homeschool her. That decision is heavily weighted by whether she will being doing school online or in person).

People are also more and more fed up with inconsistencies in what activities are considered "essential" verses what is really essentially safe.  A mayor of a small town nearby (Grants, NM) is openly opposing the governor's shelter order, encouraging the small businesses in his town to open (with physical distancing procedures), and opening the town golf course. The town sheriff was shopping at the pawn shop (which is only allowing one customer in at a time, and is cleaning everything they touch when they leave). The mayor was directing the news camera to pan over the vast golf course, saying "You want social distancing? How's that for social distancing?"  (20 people total on the course, the whole day). The state police brought a cease and desist order, but the mayor said he's gonna keep letting people play golf, even if he has to sue the state. 

 

I think writing to government with an appeal to start opening things that are not essential, but that can be done safely with your sparse population makes sense. 

 

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

He was asking the question, "Why is it dangerous to work at City Hall, but okay to work in Walmart?" 

 

It is dangerous to work at Walmart. 

People are considered to need food as available from Walmart.  

That’s why store workers are being considered “heroes”. 

I am sorry to hear you have a mayor who does not understand that.  I hope someone will help him figure out the difference between food and most other goods.  

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

Another thing happening that the government doesn't talk about is that the healthcare system (outside the ICU) is almost completely shut down. No one gets any health services unless they have COVID, or under extreme emergencies. Medical professionals are being furloughed. Doctors, dentists, and eye doctors' offices are all closed. Entire floors of hospitals are closed down.

 

That too seems worth writing about in terms of things that should open sooner rather than later.   

Our state is loosening some of those restrictions as well as telemedicine being more available apparently. 

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

Only the most critical patients are getting any care at all. I know one person who was in extreme pain for two weeks, but was sent home from the ER twice before finally being allowed an MRI, which showed stones in her bile duct, as well as her gall bladder). Other people have had their needed surgeries and procedures postponed indefinitely (My FIL had cataract surgery scheduled in March - "elective" doesn't mean boob jobs). They say they don't want to "overwhelm" the healthcare system, but they're killing it instead. The doctors' offices were already so backed up in the US that they were scheduling out 4-6 months, or longer. When they open back up, they will be backed up for a year or more!  Talk about overwhelmed!

I haven't joined the "rebels" yet, but I'm actually leaning toward the "Bring it on" stage, honestly. With no vaccine, the only way out of this thing is natural immunity. Since it's a novel virus, the only way to get immunity is to get the virus and recover. The only way to build the herd immunity we need to protect society is for a whole lot of people to become immune. I actually believe my family had it back in December, but without a reliable, readily available antibody test, there's no way to know for sure. Here in NM, the vast majority (over 95%) of people who have gotten COVID-19 have recovered at home, with no hospitalization, and our numbers in general are relatively good.

 

Im glad NM is doing well!  (Aside from Native Americans maybe ?) 

Antibody testing should become better and more available. Maybe contact University of NM and find out whether they have any antibody testing. Or know where you might be able to do that.  Maybe even join a study. 

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

I think most people are just willing to take the risk. Let the high-risk people stay home. Let the healthy people with strong immune systems get it, recover, become immune, and build that herd immunity sooner, rather than later. 

Remember Chicken Pox parties? Back before there was the varicella vaccine, moms would make play dates with contagious chicken pox kids in order to expose their own kids to the virus. It was well known that everyone was going to get it eventually, and getting it young was much preferable to getting it as an adult, or even as a teen. Getting it on purpose gave some sense of control over the situation. 

 

CV19 is a totally different order of magnitude for adults than Chicken Pox, and probably a totally different order of magnitude for children also.  Sickness is different, deaths different. A lot different. 

if adults had immunity, and if we knew that children could get sick and get immunity,  that could make some sense.

However it is a novel illness for adults, we don’t know if children get immunity, and with the strange UK Kawasaki syndrome and blood clots and strokes in younger adults, CV19 may be even more dangerous at all ages than we thought.  Many adults, even relatively young ones end up seriously sick.

 

 However, if you are having cabin fever, I recommend volunteering with something like meals on wheels so that you can start getting out while being helpful. 

 

[Meriwether]

39 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

70% of the US population is 220 million people, times an IFR of 1% = 2.2 million dead. That's the math. Which part of the math do people think is wrong?

April 3, 2020, Research Update

This report from Imperial College in London and others provides updated estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR, deaths/all infections, including mild and asymptomatic) and the case fatality ratio (CFR, death/symptomatic or confirmed infections). They estimate a mean duration from symptom onset to death of 18 days and for survivors the time from symptom onset to hospital discharge of 25 days. They do a good job of trying to adjust for biases in the data attributable to oversampling of severe cases early in a pandemic, failure to adjust for age, and the lag between case identification and death. The overall IFR is estimated to be 0.66%, and the overall CFR is 1.38%. The CFR increases from 0.06% for those in their 20s to 0.15% in their 30s, 0.30% in their 40s, 1.3% in their 50s, 4.0% in their 60s, 8.6% in their 70s, and 13.4% for those 80 and older. The proportion hospitalized increases from 1% in their 20s to 4% in their 40s to 12% in their 60s.

Written by Mark H. Ebell, MD, MS, on March 31, 2020. (Source: Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. [Published online March 30, 2020]. https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7.pdf)




As more testing is done, I believe the IFR will continue to drop.

[Meriwether]

https://www.virology.ws/2020/04/05/infection-fatality-rate-a-critical-missing-piece-for-managing-covid-19/

But is that 3% infection ratio accurate, and if not, what is the real number?  To understand this, we need to understand the difference between case fatality rate (CFR) and infection fatality rate (IFR).  CFR is the ratio of the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed (preferably by nucleic acid testing) cases of disease.  IFR is the ratio of deaths divided by the number of actual infections with SARS-CoV-2.  Because nucleic acid  testing is limited and currently available primarily to people with significant indications of and risk factors for covid-19 disease, and because a large number of infections with SARS-CoV-2 result in mild or even asymptomatic disease, the IFR is likely to be significantly lower than the CFR.  The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at the University of Oxford currently estimates the CFR globally at 0.51%, with all the caveats pertaining thereto.  CEBM estimates the IFR at 0.1% to 0.26%, with even more caveats pertaining thereto.

[Pam in CT]

1 hour ago, KungFuPanda said:

I hit refresh and lost my quotes. 😟

Here are the random thoughts that I can remember.

Maybe this should be a poll with a map feature, but do most of the people you know really get their science news from mainstream news outlets and politicians? My closest IRL friends get their basic news from the NYT, WaPo, WSJ, NPR and -- recently -- our Governor's daily COVID newsletter.  My husband is in biotech/public health circles, and also on the BoD of one of the local hospital networks, so he reads journal articles, which he occasionally tips over my way.  I get a lot of science info referrals from a COVID thread over on the Politics board as well.

What are your opinions on the WHO's statement that there is no scientific evidence that contracting the virus protects you from getting it again in the future and does this change how you feel about your "get it over with" plan?  Well, I dunno that my "opinion" much matters. The statement is based on evidence from both South Korea and China that a significant number of patients have had the disease, recovered, and thereafter fallen ill a second time.  The overall issue is discussed here, and there are links in that article to a journal article on the South Korean data.  It is an issue of enormous concern: both the Let Er Rip "Herd Immunity" hopes AND the Slow the Spread Until a Vaccine is Developed hopes BOTH depend on immunity holding. If immunity doesn't hold, we're in Thanos' Snap end-times whatever path we take.

Do you think that the goverment-required shut down means that if that restriction was lifted that all businesses would open?  How do you see this working out with so many kids out of school? No. Beyond mandated closures, and even beyond parents who need to care for kids suddenly out of school, there are labor issues that will continue to interrupt the economy (the virus will continue to rip through particular essential parts of our food supply chain and distribution networks), there are demand issues that will continue to interrupt the economy (a lot of folks just won't WANT to go on planes or to baseball games or concerts), there are liability issues that will continue to depress the economy (summer camps?  Really?), there are direct COVID-related cost issues that will continue to strain the economy (the COVID personal bankruptcy stories haven't yet emerged. What are the bills for a 3-week ICU stay?  How many American families can afford their high-deductible plan's deductible?   or hospitals and other medical practices' additional costs in PPE and testing and sanitation protocols)   The economic costs are HUGE whether we go Let Er Rip or the other way.  We're at real risk of Great Depression either way.  That's the virus, not the policy.

When you are calculating the damage to the economy caused by the shutdown are you subtracting the economic damage the virus would do all by itself? Well, I dunno about "subtracting" -- I haven't seen any real effort to calculate a real number under either Let Er Rip or Slow the Spread Until a Vaccine.  But I'm quite conscious that the economic toll will be enormous either way.

 

This is not a trap.  You can answer.  I don't know how this will play out either.  I'm just trying to keep people alive over here and I do understand that people need to eat to stay alive.  I'm not feeling much of a political divide where I live.  EVERYONE is complying with the mask guidelines in public places of business and lots of people are now wearing them for walks around the neighborhood.  (My mother in another state reports that only half the people wear masks in grocery stores near her.) I live in a blue state with a Republican governor, so it's possible that the people most politically inclined to balk about the restrictions mind it less when their guy is telling them what to do.  It's also possible that I have no idea what's really going on because I've been on house arrest for 45 days. 

These are good questions.  Perhaps you could spin a new thread structured as a poll.  (My own thoughts in purple.)

 

 

49 minutes ago, AmandaVT said:

I think Vermont is doing a pretty good job so far. Our governor is starting to loosen up restrictions and plans on easing them weekly as long as we don't start spiking cases. He's calling it "a quarter turn of the spigot" or something like that. So 2 Fridays ago, he allowed landscapers and construction workers in teams of no more than 2 back to work along with people that work in low contact businesses, again up to 2 per office. Last Friday, he upped the number allowed to 5. Also, farmer's markets, garden supply shops and construction shops (I may have missed another type of store) can reopen for curbside pickup. He's hoping to loosen a bit more this Friday. 

He's relying on the Health commissioner and his team for guidance and has sent out extra unemployment checks for $1200 for the people that are struggling without jobs or with reduced hours right now. 

They've also started contact tracing for everyone that is positive and ramping up testing even more. 

This all makes good sense, and once we get past the peak (sigh....) I expect we'll do something along these lines as well.

 

The construct of putting in a "plan" that is hooked to public health metrics, as opposed to dates, is hard.  The longing for a definitive DATE in answer to the plaintive question when will this be over is really, really understandable.  

But a plan based on "after fourteen days of decreased number of new cases" is a plan.  It's a plan rooted in the behavior of the virus rather than the (understandable) frustrations of people.

Which does not care if we're "done."  The virus, in fact, will be DELIGHTED for us all to throng back to restaurants and planes and baseball games.

[SeaConquest]

Keep in mind that many statisticians and epidemiologists have serious issues with the Stanford and USC studies:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/experts-demolish-studies-suggesting-covid-19-is-no-worse-than-flu/

[Corraleno]

16 minutes ago, Meriwether said:

The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at the University of Oxford currently estimates the CFR globally at 0.51%, with all the caveats pertaining thereto.  CEBM estimates the IFR at 0.1% to 0.26%, with even more caveats pertaining thereto.

 

Yeah, you can certainly get nice low IFRs by deducting the deaths of anyone with preexisting conditions, claiming that they shouldn't count because they died "with" CV19, not "of" CV19. That will instantly exclude a huge percentage of US deaths, given how many Americans have underlying conditions that make them higher risk. The idea that those deaths shouldn't "count," because they may have eventually died of the preexisting condition anyway, is pretty offensive though. 

The German study that showed an IFR of 0.37% was a best-case scenario, with extensive testing and a healthcare system that was not overwhelmed — which we are simply not going to be able to match in the US. Even with an IFR of 0.5% we are looking at over a million dead, which will absolutely overwhelm the healthcare system and probably lead to additional deaths from other causes.

I guess there are some people who consider >1 million deaths either acceptable or inevitable no matter what we do. But I don't think most of the people who think this is all overblown and we need to reopen "so everyone can catch it and get it over with" have the faintest idea of what kind of numbers that would entail. 

[mathnerd]

3 hours ago, Arcadia said:

My neighbors are still hoping and they are frustrated that schools are still closed even though they were the ones petitioning for schools to be closed. A neighbor honestly thought schools will reopen in May for our county when SIP ends. People are still hoping June ACT won't be cancelled.

Most of the frustration that people face due to the SIP is because they assume, falsely, that those who told them to shelter in place have the ability to make this virus go away and also to tell us when it is safe to head out to our normal lives. The County Health Officer, the mayors, the Governor, the infectious disease experts can not give us a "cure" for this and tell us to go on our merry ways and live life as before. All they can do at this point is to predict how the disease will affect our local areas and perhaps help with the procurement of PPE and ventilators. The people working on the vaccination are not the same people as the public policy makers. Over the past weeks new segments of the population have been found vulnerable (e.g. blood clots in young people) and there are several mutations occurring in parts of the world which makes it even more of a longer product development cycle for the vaccination developers. I see no prospects of a vaccine for the next 18 months, at the very least.

In a good year, my local public school has 4-5 strep throat exposure notices and a few hand-foot-and-mouth exposure notices, not to mention the kids who come to school with the flu and spread it to others (there is a vaccine available for it and it is a known disease).  Kids will be kids and they cannot be policed for the 6+ hours that they are in school and the time they spend in aftercare settings. So, schools will become the hotbed of infection no matter how careful everyone is. I am highly skeptical that schools will reopen in california in the Fall without an acceptable method of treatment (an effective drug, enough ventilators, PPE and hopefully a vaccine).

I think that ACT and SAT will move to online proctored versions of the exam (if they have not decided to do so already).

[Arcadia]

3 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

Most of the frustration that people face due to the SIP is because they assume, falsely, that those who told them to shelter in place have the ability to make this virus go away and also to tell us when it is safe to head out to our normal lives.

Neighbors who migrated from Asia are comparing the SIP here and Asian countries. I don’t think anyone expect the virus to go away but people expect restrictions to loosen when the caseloads are relatively low (nurses being furloughed). They also kind of expect California to ramp up production of PPE instead of depending on China. 

[frogger]

3 hours ago, OKBud said:

Probably when someone in your own family needs to be intubated but they can't be because of a lack of supply and personel, no?

 

If you are going to bring it down to a personal level then you could also say people will draw then line when their loved one commits suicide or is murdered by a spouse or dies from cancer that was left untreated for too long.  That game could be played both ways you know.

[Terabith]

37 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

Most of the frustration that people face due to the SIP is because they assume, falsely, that those who told them to shelter in place have the ability to make this virus go away and also to tell us when it is safe to head out to our normal lives.

No, of course they don't have the ability to make this virus go away.  But you know what?  Competent leadership could have implemented widespread testing, quarantining, and contact tracing in JANUARY (along with production of PPE and ventilators), and we might very well have avoided all of this.  

That is insanely frustrating.  

The incompetence and arrogance.  

ETA:  A forum of homeschool moms, operating on publicly available information, started organizing to prepare our own households for pandemic in January and February.  It's really not too much to ask the federal government to use their resources to do the same.  

Sorry, that's probably out of line.  

Edited April 29, 2020 by Terabith

[fairfarmhand]

4 hours ago, square_25 said:

 

The thing Cuomo has said that makes sense to me is that if you open one area and keep another closed, everyone from the closed area will flock to the open area, which is about the opposite of what you want (and the closed area is going to be the sick area, too!) On the other hand, it does seem excessive to keep an area without a huge problem closed indefinitely. So I think you'd have to think carefully about how to orchestrate that. That's why people want so much testing first -- because they'd really like to make sure everyone who's sick is actually staying home and not going out and infecting everyone, including people from places that don't have outbreaks. 

It looks like Cuomo is planning to open up upstate NY first, probably on May 15th when the PAUSE runs out. New York is a big state, so that makes sense to me. And I really really hope that it won't mean that upstate gets swamped, because I'm sure their hospitals are even less equipped to handle this than NYC's, which didn't do so well. 

Hah, some coastal cities are DENSE. It's hard to keep people from mingling. 

 

4 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

🤣

The idea of people "flocking" from Montgomery County OH to Preble County OH was kinda funny to me.  

In most of fly over country, there ain't much about the "open" areas to flock to.  Lotta flat, hopefully soon a lotta corn and wheat, not much to do but stare at corn and wheat.  (probably why they call us fly over country.  )

Tennessee is opening up but the hotspots have different restrictions than the rest of the state. And the idea of people from Nashville driving to Franklin county tn to go to Walmart unfettered is silly. 
 

I don’t think the restrictions will be drastically different though. It’s not like folks are holding concerts in podunk tn. 
 

our restrictions are based on case numbers. When the numbers dip for 14 days we move on to the next level.

[frogger]

8 minutes ago, OKBud said:

Covid 19 is known to beat women, encourage suicide, and inculcate cancer? 

You're playing a VERY different game. 

 

No, but it is very well known that the lock down is excerbating all those issues. Many of us know people who have been affected in such ways. So I think it's important to keep the broad picture.

[Arcadia]

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/vacaville-salon-reopens-despite-stay-at-home-order/2280820/

“A Vacaville hair salon owner testing the boundaries of the shelter-at-home rules reopened her shop Tuesday.

Lia Rivera, the woman who runs Hairendipity, said she understands the seriousness of defying the order, but she is willing to take the risk of a $1,000 fine. What she said she’s not willing to do is continue to stay at home while her business loses thousands of dollars.

“It’s a survival tactic at this point,” Rivera said.

It’s been six weeks since Rivera was forced to close down her salon and let go of her staff. On Tuesday, she gave up on waiting for Gov. Gavin Newsom to give her the OK to open up for business.

“I think it’s a reckless thing to do to give us such loose, vague guidelines over what’s happening,” Rivera said.

Newsom on Tuesday said hair salons fall under the state’s third phase of reopening California businesses. The state is currently in the first phase.

“You’re now talking about several months that our businesses have been closed down,” Rivera said. “What do you expect us all to do?””

 

[hopeallgoeswell]

1 hour ago, SeaConquest said:

Keep in mind that many statisticians and epidemiologists have serious issues with the Stanford and USC studies:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/experts-demolish-studies-suggesting-covid-19-is-no-worse-than-flu/

Have you seen any negative issues with the NY antibody testing?

[Roadrunner]

CA wants kids back in school by late July. Churches will open in phase 3, and some of these churches are mega churches, while musicians can’t hold concerts until phase 4? Some of those music venues are significantly smaller than churches. 

let’s just hope Brits are right and they will have a vaccine as early as this fall. 

[Liz CA]

I think some of the reluctance to comply may stem from the fact that scientists cannot agree either about how dangerous this is (many have had it and survived), how many people may have had it already with mild or no symptoms, how it is contracted (with certainty) as evidenced by the words from the scientific community "it's like flying a plane while we are building it."

Local politicians from my area are submitting a request to delegate the decision to open up certain venues to county government. At this point it's just a petition as I understand it but we'll see how far that will go. 

[Liz CA]

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

You can't get a good estimate of how many people have it in most states, but you can tell from the antibody testing that most places only have single percent positives. Once it's single percent positives, you can't tell exactly what percent it is due to issues with false positives. But you can tell that it's not, say, widespread. 

 

What little testing there is available (unless you pay for it out of pocket at private lab) in my area has to be ordered by a physician even the antibody test. Not sure how much date we have here for antibody testing. I looked into antibody testing and found out I'd have to convince a physician of its necessity. Have not done that yet.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Liz CA

[Terabith]

26 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

let’s just hope Brits are right and they will have a vaccine as early as this fall. 

Brits and the rest of the world may have a vaccine as early as the fall.  US declined to be part of it because our pharmaceutical companies wouldn't have a monopoly.  So we may not have access to it.  

[frogger]

21 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

Can you help me understand the logic in thinking that the lockdown is to blame for hospitals cancelling certain medical procedures?  Here doctors are cancelling because of two reasons: lack of PPE, and concerns about people being exposed in the hospital or bringing in COVID and exposing others.  It seems to me that both of these concerns would be worse if the lockdown was lifted, and the number of cases rose.  

 

Yes, the term lock down is many faceted. In our 1st phase of "opening" we opened more of the health care sector. Not all due to PPE and I have no complaints of that. Throughout this thread I have favored strategic metered opening. 

I was just pointing out that using the premise that people will draw the line when their loved one is at stake can go both ways and should probably be left out of the over all argument. 

[mathnerd]

1 hour ago, Arcadia said:

They also kind of expect California to ramp up production of PPE instead of depending on China. 

But manufacturing jobs left America a long time ago for various reasons. What we are seeing now is a bunch of local companies scrambling to make ventilators and PPE when it is really hard to turn on a dime and convert American manufacturing assembly lines to make so much PPE or ventilators to meet demand from a pandemic. They are doing a heroic job to change their production line to make more PPE, but, I doubt that there will be enough made such that there is supply for every citizen who leaves their home to conduct outside business. We need to import from somewhere. The politicians are too polite and use the euphemism "Supply Chain" to repeatedly refer to the fact that China is the supplier of what we consume. I am privileged that I can afford to buy $2 masks, but, I am not so sure if everyone can afford that in California. 

On a related note, do you know if Wuhan has opened up its schools already?