Our shelter in place just got extended through May 30 and people are DONE

[Ausmumof3]

4 hours ago, KungFuPanda said:

I hit refresh and lost my quotes. 😟

Here are the random thoughts that I can remember.

Maybe this should be a poll with a map feature, but do most of the people you know really get their science news from mainstream news outlets and politicians? 

What are your opinions on the WHO's statement that there is no scientific evidence that contracting the virus protects you from getting it again in the future and does this change how you feel about your "get it over with" plan?

Do you think that the goverment-required shut down means that if that restriction was lifted that all businesses would open?  How do you see this working out with so many kids out of school? 

When you are calculating the damage to the economy caused by the shutdown are you subtracting the economic damage the virus would do all by itself? 

 

This is not a trap.  You can answer.  I don't know how this will play out either.  I'm just trying to keep people alive over here and I do understand that people need to eat to stay alive.  I'm not feeling much of a political divide where I live.  EVERYONE is complying with the mask guidelines in public places of business and lots of people are now wearing them for walks around the neighborhood.  (My mother in another state reports that only half the people wear masks in grocery stores near her.) I live in a blue state with a Republican governor, so it's possible that the people most politically inclined to balk about the restrictions mind it less when their guy is telling them what to do.  It's also possible that I have no idea what's really going on because I've been on house arrest for 45 days. 

I can’t find it now but the WHO did dial that statement back a bit.  They are more saying there’s no firm evidence

 

3 hours ago, Meriwether said:

April 3, 2020, Research Update

This report from Imperial College in London and others provides updated estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR, deaths/all infections, including mild and asymptomatic) and the case fatality ratio (CFR, death/symptomatic or confirmed infections). They estimate a mean duration from symptom onset to death of 18 days and for survivors the time from symptom onset to hospital discharge of 25 days. They do a good job of trying to adjust for biases in the data attributable to oversampling of severe cases early in a pandemic, failure to adjust for age, and the lag between case identification and death. The overall IFR is estimated to be 0.66%, and the overall CFR is 1.38%. The CFR increases from 0.06% for those in their 20s to 0.15% in their 30s, 0.30% in their 40s, 1.3% in their 50s, 4.0% in their 60s, 8.6% in their 70s, and 13.4% for those 80 and older. The proportion hospitalized increases from 1% in their 20s to 4% in their 40s to 12% in their 60s.

Written by Mark H. Ebell, MD, MS, on March 31, 2020. (Source: Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. [Published online March 30, 2020]. https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7.pdf)




As more testing is done, I believe the IFR will continue to drop.

I thought testing would only affect cfr not IFR.  Because IFR supposedly estimates based on all infections not just those tested?

[Ausmumof3]

12 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

But manufacturing jobs left America a long time ago for various reasons. What we are seeing now is a bunch of local companies scrambling to make ventilators and PPE when it is really hard to turn on a dime and convert American manufacturing assembly lines to make so much PPE or ventilators to meet demand from a pandemic. They are doing a heroic job to change their production line to make more PPE, but, I doubt that there will be enough made such that there is supply for every citizen who leaves their home to conduct outside business. We need to import from somewhere. The politicians are too polite and use the euphemism "Supply Chain" to repeatedly refer to the fact that China is the supplier of what we consume. I am privileged that I can afford to buy $2 masks, but, I am not so sure if everyone can afford that in California. 

On a related note, do you know if Wuhan has opened up its schools already?

From the tweets I’m seeing from global times etc in China it seems only some grades in high school are open and no primary.  But none in Wuhan or other harder hit areas.

edited to add their big meeting Thingamy has now been delayed till mid May.  
 

Some analysis says schools open and the parliament meeting thing will be the true indicators that things are actually controlled.  
 

they just built another hospital near the province on the Russia China border where the latest outbreak is.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[ktgrok]

5 hours ago, Terabith said:

Okay, true.  Clearly it CAN go on indefinitely.  And of course they shouldn't do elective procedures without proper PPE.  But it will cause major hardship, pain, dysfunction, and loss of life if it goes on for long.  Cancer surgeries are being put off.  Procedures to relieve pain aren't being done, in an era when opioids won't be prescribed either.  

I'm not sure if the issue is that the PPE isn't there or if they are worried about conserving PPE for a surge in covid cases.  Which is an entirely rational thing to do, but again, when it's very possible it will be July or August before it gets here, that's a long time to leave people in medical limbo.  

I mean, what I'd LIKE to have happened, is for the federal government to have invoked the Defense Production Act back in January and started producing PPE in large quantities.  But, clearly that didn't happen.  I'm not entirely clear that anyone is manufacturing it now.  As far as I can tell, states are just scrambling to order this scarce resource from all over the country and it's getting confiscated.  

Right, but since we cant go back in time, or make PPE appear magically, or extra testing, what we are left with is wait for those things before doing non essential medical procedures OR asking medical staff - doctors, nurses, technicians, receptionists, etc - to risk their lives for non essential procedures. And asking them to risk their family's lives or live separately on top of it. That's just the way it is. I don't think we can blame them for choosing the former. 

4 hours ago, square_25 said:

I think lewelma was talking about pooling parts of samples together and testing them, and then only testing individual ones if it's positive. It's a good technique for low incidence areas! 

We have done that for heartworm testing at one of the veterinary clinics I worked for. Takes time though, to collect enough samples for the batch. 

4 hours ago, Ottakee said:

But elective is a highly subjective thing.   I really need to see a specialist about a medical issue that is getting worse....can't get in until July as they aren't seeing patients/doing tests now.

My primary is doing what she can to help me and is trying to order tests.

They are "elective" in that the chance I will die by not having this test in the next week is very small.....BUT, there is also a larger risk of longer term health issues if they don't discover the reason behind what is going on ....and hopefully soon.

Elective might include cancer screenings, tests, etc that might not lead to death this week, but delaying them a few weeks/months could well affect the ultimate outcome for those patients.

I had a friend that (before covid) had an elective hysterectomy.  It was to the point that her choice was hysterectomy or blood transfusions....yet it was labeled as "elective".

There are also life enhancing procedures for children that NOT done in a timely manner makes them less effective long term.

I agree though that there are some truly elective procedures that certainly can wait.

The thing is - do we ask medical staff to do those procedures and work in those offices even without the proper PPE?

3 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

For me, this ignores 2 parts

The first is time.  Which is what "flatten the curve" is supposed to buy us.  Time.  Lets presume 2.2 million dead (which, I absolutely believe we *will* get there at some point.)  The question is....how long till we get there?

Second part it ignores is the percentage of cases that are completely asymptomatic, as well as the very mild cases that aren't tested.  In Ohio, as of today, less than 400 of our cases are in the 0 to 19 age range.  Bull.  All that means is that less than 400 kids and teens have enough symptoms to get tested.  We don't have an accurate overall IFR.  The math can't be right if the numbers used to create are wrong.  

But part of the issue is that yes, we are missing asymptomatic cases, but we are also missing deaths. There are a lot of 'excess" deaths right now, that are likley from COVID, in people who died at home or were just not tested before dying. So we are undercounting the cases but also undercounting the deaths. 

And this disease isn't just about deaths anyway. People seem to not be factoring in the weeks in hospital for many, the potential long term damage to lungs, heart, and kidneys, etc. We have doctors who are worried that patients who survive may end up needing transplants later, and our medical system can't handle that kind of increase. So they might live now, but die of heart failure later, or live with seriously compromised heart or lung function, etc. 

 

[mathnerd]

1 hour ago, Terabith said:

No, of course they don't have the ability to make this virus go away.  But you know what?  Competent leadership could have implemented widespread testing, quarantining, and contact tracing in JANUARY (along with production of PPE and ventilators), and we might very well have avoided all of this.  

That is insanely frustrating.  

The incompetence and arrogance.  

ETA:  A forum of homeschool moms, operating on publicly available information, started organizing to prepare our own households for pandemic in January and February.  It's really not too much to ask the federal government to use their resources to do the same.  

Sorry, that's probably out of line.  

All that is in the past.

In the bay area, we took measures to protect ourselves at our workplaces and our kids in our schools when we knew that there was community spread months before the County and the State acknowledged that the pandemic had reached our shores. That was a scary time for the locals, living through those weeks when we were afraid to step out of our homes to participate in society but had to do it because the government did not have the knowledge or data or the testing kits available. So, what we did was to protect ourselves when the local government was denying that the problem existed. We stayed home, taught our babies to not touch their faces, stepped outside armed with hand sanitizers and masks even though all was well in the news cycles. Now, they acknowledge that the infection was there in February and that they are "digging deeper". There is incompetence at every level and deep denial as well. The price we paid for that is lives lost (60,000 deaths, #1 in total deaths), damage to the economy and joblessness😞

 

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, mathnerd said:

All that is in the past.

In the bay area, we took measures to protect ourselves at our workplaces and our kids in our schools when we knew that there was community spread months before the County and the State acknowledged that the pandemic had reached our shores. That was a scary time for the locals, living through those weeks when we were afraid to step out of our homes to participate in society but had to do it because the government did not have the knowledge or data or the testing kits available. So, what we did was to protect ourselves when the local government was denying that the problem existed. We stayed home, taught our babies to not touch their faces, stepped outside armed with hand sanitizers and masks even though all was well in the news cycles. Now, they acknowledge that the infection was there in February and that they are "digging deeper". There is incompetence at every level and deep denial as well. The price we paid for that is lives lost (60,000 deaths, #1 in total deaths), damage to the economy and joblessness😞

 

I thought there was now evidence of cases as early as Jan?

Edited April 29, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

More on schools in China

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-china-52441152?__twitter_impression=true

looks like BBC are saying WuhAn schools are due back May 6.  Heiliangjong (sp) opened then closed the high school two weeks later.

[ktgrok]

5 minutes ago, kdsuomi said:

Does every thread now have to turn into an America is selfish (vaccines), the feds caused all our woes, Republicans want everyone to die, and everyone who wants to get curbside pickup must be lectured on staying at home? It really seems as though that's the case.

CA's next phase will honestly change very little about people's day to day lives, and yet people are still sitting here flipping out that people are going to leave their homes. Yes, once the governor and counties allow us to, people can still not interact with others and get something from a store put in the trunk of a car. We still won't be able to actually go inside the store. CA's re-opening is very different from all the others I've seen so far, and yet the reaction is exactly the same. 

Well, I for one think CA's plan looks very reasonable. And I say that as one of the most staunch proponents of stay at home, and a bleeding heart liberal. 

Now, Ga's plan? Not so much. 

And I have very little faith in my own state at the moment. We shall see. 

Edited April 29, 2020 by Ktgrok

[Arcadia]

https://abc7news.com/society/complaints-rise-over-lack-of-social-distancing-around-oaklands-lake-merritt-/6135950/
“OAKLAND, Calif. (KGO) -- The warmer it gets and the later it gets into the afternoon hours, the more crowded the area around Oakland's Lake Merritt becomes despite social distancing guidelines during the novel coronavirus pandemic.

The majority of those enjoying the lake appear to not be wearing face coverings.
Video shot over the weekend shows crowds that are supposed to be moving, not picnicking or sunning.

Over the last six weeks, Alameda County has fielded 2,400 complaints.

"The city of Oakland is leading in the number of complaints where violations are concerned because that's one of the places we got a lot of complaints that people are not social distancing," said Sgt. Tya Modeste with the Alameda County Sheriff's Office. "Those complaints have been forwarded to the Oakland Police department's task force on compliance issues. "

Oakland police say they have issued no citations thus far as they are focused on calls about other criminal activity.”

[Ausmumof3]

6 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh yeah, the New York Times had some excess death calculations. They are... sobering. Here they are: 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html
 

on the economist graphs they didn’t have one for all of US but the New York City graph actually did dip slightly into the expected deaths.  Meaning either that the death rate from other causes has dropped (possible given many areas are seeing quiet hospitals with the lockdowns, less road trauma etc) or a small number of deaths that would have been happening anyway are being counted as COVID.  It’s not massive but I think it’s a good indication that in New York City they are a finally capturing all Covid deaths, although that’s not true for the rest of the Us.  The excess deaths not allocated to Covid in European countries was sobering though. 

[Corraleno]

5 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh yeah, the New York Times had some excess death calculations. They are... sobering. Here they are: 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html

And yet the arguments that "this is all overblown and it's no worse than the flu" rely heavily on (1) exaggerating the numbers of infected/immune while simultaneously (2) claiming that the deaths that are being counted are purposely being artificially inflated by including people who died "with" CV19, not "of" it. In fact, the opposite is true. ☹️

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries
 

link to the graphs for those who haven’t already seen them.

interestingly Sweden seem to be capturing most deaths as well which may partially explain the higher death rate there aside from the lack of lockdown.

[TCB]

14 minutes ago, kdsuomi said:

Does every thread now have to turn into an America is selfish (vaccines), the feds caused all our woes, Republicans want everyone to die, and everyone who wants to get curbside pickup must be lectured on staying at home? It really seems as though that's the case.

CA's next phase will honestly change very little about people's day to day lives, and yet people are still sitting here flipping out that people are going to leave their homes. Yes, once the governor and counties allow us to, people can still not interact with others and get something from a store put in the trunk of a car. We still won't be able to actually go inside the store. CA's re-opening is very different from all the others I've seen so far, and yet the reaction is exactly the same. 

Mostly what changes it to that is you coming on here and saying that time after time lol! We all seem pretty entrenched in our views I guess ( you included). Maybe we should all copy and paste in all threads. Just joking! I like hearing everyone’s view points - even if some are quite predictable!

[Arcadia]

37 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

 

On a related note, do you know if Wuhan has opened up its schools already?

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/04/21/schools-to-re-open-in-china039s-han

"WUHAN: Final-year high school students in the province of Wuhan, the epicentre of China's virus outbreak, will return to classrooms from May 6, officials said, the latest easing of restrictions as the country's domestic outbreak is brought under control.

Schools have been closed in Wuhan and surrounding Hubei province since January, when lockdown measures were brought in to try and contain the spread of the virus."

I was hoping for something like this for US

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/razer-covid-19-face-mask-manufacturing-line-singapore-12597834

"SINGAPORE: Singapore gaming company Razer announced plans on Wednesday (Apr 1) to set up an automated face mask manufacturing line within 30 days to produce "a couple of million certified masks" each month.

...

In a separate press statement released by Razer on Wednesday, the company said that it had initially converted existing product manufacturing lines in China to make and donate masks for immediate relief, with initial shipments going out earlier this week.

However, the company had been "inundated by requests due to an extreme shortage of face masks and PPEs", particularly in Southeast Asia, and decided to set up a line in Singapore.

"Many of the face masks in the market are not properly manufactured, do not meet certification standards and offer little or no protection to the users," said Razer in its release.

The company said that its masks will be "certified to Singapore and international standards" and used to supply both the local and regional market."

[mathnerd]

28 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/04/21/schools-to-re-open-in-china039s-han

"WUHAN: Final-year high school students in the province of Wuhan, the epicentre of China's virus outbreak, will return to classrooms from May 6, officials said, the latest easing of restrictions as the country's domestic outbreak is brought under control.

Schools have been closed in Wuhan and surrounding Hubei province since January, when lockdown measures were brought in to try and contain the spread of the virus."

I was hoping for something like this for US

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/razer-covid-19-face-mask-manufacturing-line-singapore-12597834

"SINGAPORE: Singapore gaming company Razer announced plans on Wednesday (Apr 1) to set up an automated face mask manufacturing line within 30 days to produce "a couple of million certified masks" each month.

...

In a separate press statement released by Razer on Wednesday, the company said that it had initially converted existing product manufacturing lines in China to make and donate masks for immediate relief, with initial shipments going out earlier this week.

However, the company had been "inundated by requests due to an extreme shortage of face masks and PPEs", particularly in Southeast Asia, and decided to set up a line in Singapore.

"Many of the face masks in the market are not properly manufactured, do not meet certification standards and offer little or no protection to the users," said Razer in its release.

The company said that its masks will be "certified to Singapore and international standards" and used to supply both the local and regional market."

So, it took 4 months for Wuhan to ease restrictions for some school kids to enter classrooms. I am guessing that parts of the US are affected worse than Wuhan these days (especially NYC). Which means that we should anticipate that it might take that many months for American schools to bring kids back to the classrooms. 

California needs more than 40 million masks for the general public if we all are required to wear them when we step out into society. Then, there is the need of millions more for health care providers. If we need 100 million masks and Razer has capacity to make 2 million/month, I guess that a dozen such companies in california can produce 20-30 million masks/month. The automation of the production might make it cost effective ...

 

 

[Arcadia]

24 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

California needs more than 40 million masks for the general public if we all are required to wear them when we step out into society. Then, there is the need of millions more for health care providers. If we need 100 million masks and Razer has capacity to make 2 million/month, I guess that a dozen such companies in california can produce 20-30 million masks/month. The automation of the production might make it cost effective ...

I was thinking more of reduce reliance on international supplies. Not all the masks need to be produced in California. It can be manufactured in nearby states. 

Another example, this from South Korea:

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=43268
“Samsung Group is working with South Korean mask manufacturers to help them increase their output by means of its smart factory operation experience.

Samsung sent its manufacturing process experts to the three mask manufacturers of E&W, Evergreen and Loesstech on March 3 so that those companies recommended by the Ministry of SMEs and Startups and the Korea Federation of SMEs can maximize their output by means of their existing production resources and even without new equipment.

In addition, Samsung Electronics produced and supplied molds in just seven days to mask makers lacking mold production techniques. It takes at least one month for such companies to import molds from abroad. The beneficiaries include Hwajin Industry. Samsung sent its smart factory experts to the company last month, and they helped the company increase its daily output from 40,000 units to 100,000 units by optimizing production lines and removing process bottlenecks.

Samsung Group is also planning to work with the government in helping import meltblown nonwoven fabrics for masks. Specifically, purchase contracts with foreign filter suppliers designated by the government will be concluded based on Samsung Electronics’ and Samsung C&T’s global networks and the resultant imports will be supplied to the Public Procurement Service. With contracts for 53 tons of meltblown nonwoven fabrics already signed, Samsung is continuing with additional purchase procedures. The amount is equivalent to more than 25 million masks.”

Edited April 29, 2020 by Arcadia
Typing errors

[sassenach]

7 hours ago, kdsuomi said:

There's too much travel between areas to really do CA part by part. A lot if people who work in my county live in a neighboring county. A lot of people who live in that county work in a different neighboring county. So on and so forth. We're a tourist county, so people routinely chime here from all over. 

I think there are some pretty solid regional divides. Bay Area and LA basin do not need to be in sync with each other to be effective. 

[Ausmumof3]

6 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

I was thinking more of reduce reliance on international supplies. Not all the masks need to be produced in California. It can be manufactured in nearby states. 

Another example, this from South Korea:

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=43268
“Samsung Group is working with South Korean mask manufacturers to help them increase their output by means of its smart factory operation experience.

Samsung sent its manufacturing process experts to the three mask manufacturers of E&W, Evergreen and Loesstech on March 3 so that those companies recommended by the Ministry of SMEs and Startups and the Korea Federation of SMEs can maximize their output by means of their existing production resources and even without new equipment.

In addition, Samsung Electronics produced and supplied molds in just seven days to mask makers lacking mold production techniques. It takes at least one month for such companies to import molds from abroad. The beneficiaries include Hwajin Industry. Samsung sent its smart factory experts to the company last month, and they helped the company increase its daily output from 40,000 units to 100,000 units by optimizing production lines and removing process bottlenecks.

Samsung Group is also planning to work with the government in helping import meltblown nonwoven fabrics for masks. Specifically, purchase contracts with foreign filter suppliers designated by the government will be concluded based on Samsung Electronics’ and Samsung C&T’s global networks and the resultant imports will be supplied to the Public Procurement Service. With contracts for 53 tons of meltblown nonwoven fabrics already signed, Samsung is continuing with additional purchase procedures. The amount is equivalent to more than 25 million masks.”

In sa we are supposed to start manufacturing masks in May June.  We just can’t start yet - because the machines we need to make them are made in China 

[Arcadia]

1 minute ago, Ausmumof3 said:

In sa we are supposed to start manufacturing masks in May June.  We just can’t start yet - because the machines we need to make them are made in China 

No chance of getting the machines from South Korea or Taiwan?

Taiwan https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202003240015

“On Feb. 6, it launched a rationing system through the National Health Insurance Administration, limiting people to two masks per week.

To increase production, the government invested NT$200 million (US$6.66 million) to purchase new supply lines, and began recruiting a team of about 100 technicians to assemble them at requisitioned manufacturing facilities.

In the first phase of the team's deployment, from Feb. 5-March 5, it completed an estimated four-to-six-month workload, assembling 60 supply lines. With each machine able to manufacture 100,000 masks per day, the country's daily mask production jumped from 4 million to 10 million.

Reflecting that increase, on March 5 the government raised the mask ration to three adult-sized or five child-sized masks per week.”

[Arcadia]

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/04/28/coronavirus-san-jose-facing-a-45-million-budget-shortfall-due-to-covid-19-pandemic/

“SAN JOSE (KPIX) – The city of San Jose is facing a $45 million budget deficit, much of it rapidly brought on by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

...

“We were looking at a $25-$35 million budget surplus and we went to a projected $45 million dollar deficit. That’s about an $80 million swing within one month,” Khamis said.

Like most Bay Area cities, San Jose makes most of its money by collecting sales and property taxes.

But with so many businesses closed, those income streams have gone practically dry.

...

And with travel restricted, the city’s other big source of income — hotel or transient taxes — are also down sharply.

Fortunately, San Jose has cash reserves and many emergency expenses related to the pandemic are being picked up by the state and federal government, not coming out of the city’s general fund.

But the city is looking for ways to cut costs, such as deferring maintenance or building renovations.”

[ElizabethB]

8 hours ago, Terabith said:

I mean, what I'd LIKE to have happened, is for the federal government to have invoked the Defense Production Act back in January and started producing PPE in large quantities.  But, clearly that didn't happen.  I'm not entirely clear that anyone is manufacturing it now.  As far as I can tell, states are just scrambling to order this scarce resource from all over the country and it's getting confiscated.  

People stayed away from their families for a month to make PPE more efficiently.

"Workers volunteered to live in a factory for 28 days to produce millions of pounds of raw PPE materials to make masks and gowns for frontline medical workers"

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-ppe-materials-marcus-hook-delaware-county-factory-joe-boyce-20200423.html

Edited April 29, 2020 by ElizabethB

[Arcadia]

@Terabith@ElizabethB@Ausmumof3@mathnerd

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/06/828303817/surgical-mask-manufacturer-in-texas-is-inundated-with-requests
“MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST: 

Well, let's hear now from someone who makes those masks. Michael Bowen is co-owner and executive vice president of Prestige Ameritech. That is the largest manufacturer of surgical face masks here in the U.S. He told me his company has dramatically ramped up production as factories elsewhere in the world idle.

...

KELLY: This is a very basic question, but why can't you ramp up really quickly, really fast? This is a question of specialized equipment?

BOWEN: Yeah, and training. It takes a long time to build the machines, and this is a temporary situation. So for our company, ramping up past a certain point becomes a suicide mission. You know, we did this 10 years ago during H1N1, and we hired a lot of people and ramped up. And then we nearly went bankrupt afterward. We laid off 150 people and nearly went out of business. You know, it's not like flipping on a switch. It's building machines. It's hiring people. It's training people. That's the issue.

KELLY: Stay with that experience from 2009 with H1N1. You ramped up. You were left with - what? - a huge surplus of masks that you couldn't sell?

BOWEN: Well, what happened is we rose to the occasion. Hospitals were calling. We bought a bigger factory. We built machines. We hired an extra 150 people. And then when it ended, the people that we helped went back to the foreign-made masks. So we ended up having to lay off all of those people, and it was a very brutal situation.

...
KELLY: It's all private customers, hospitals and so forth.

BOWEN: Yeah. It's hospitals and hospital distributors and dental distributors. We haven't done business with the federal government since 2010. Over the last 10 years, we have bid on the Department of Defense and the Veterans Administration's masks, and they always choose masks that are made in Mexico because they're cheaper.

KELLY: I mean, make the case for me why the government and private business - why shouldn't they go with the cheapest option?

BOWEN: Because in a pandemic, the government of every country is going to take care of their own people. If there's not going to be a pandemic, it's no big deal. But if you think there's going to be a pandemic - which experts do - and that borders are going to close and there's going to be infrastructure disruption, it's safer to make masks in the United States.”

[ElizabethB]

"Prestige Ameritech's 24-hour operation at their headquarters near Fort Worth will be staffed in part by members of the Texas National Guard 36th Infantry Division and will produce 2 million masks per week."

https://www.woodlandsonline.com/npps/story.cfm?nppage=66236

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, ElizabethB said:

"Prestige Ameritech's 24-hour operation at their headquarters near Fort Worth will be staffed in part by members of the Texas National Guard 36th Infantry Division and will produce 2 million masks per week."

https://www.woodlandsonline.com/npps/story.cfm?nppage=66236

ADF are involved in manufacturing PPE here right now 

[ktgrok]

37 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

Yes, we are missing deaths.  It would be great if counting of deaths for any disease were 100% accurate but it never has been.  There's always been a measure of subjectiveness.  And given that this thing is new, it seems pretty obvious that this is going to be even more inaccurate than for most diseases.  At the same time, there's no way we are undercounting deaths on the same order of magnitude as we are undercounting cases.  Certainly numbers range wildly on uncounted cases, but now that we know there are even more asymptomatic cases than we thought, it's becoming pretty clear that there are a whole lot of unconfirmed cases. 

And the disease isn't just about deaths, well that's true for every illness or injury.  Vehicle accidents don't just cause death, they cause life long trauma and injury.  People who survive heart attacks can have life long damage to their heart and other problems, only to die a year or two later of a second heart attack.  The risk of long term damage or problems from illness or injury has always existed.  

And now it seems this thread has turned into the same "try to convince everyone to think about this thing exactly same" sort of thread that all the rest do.  

Um, I am not trying to convince everyone to think about this thing exactly the same anymore than you are. 

It was pointed out that our numbers are not accurate due to missing asymptomatic cases (which seemed obvious). That's true. I added that we are also missing deaths, potentially a lot of deaths, which seemed less obvious (to me, anyway) and was a much newer news story. We are looking at the excess death statistics to try to figure that out, but we don't even HAVE that data yet for a lot of places because deaths are not reported quickly, for any causes, in some places. So it seemed important info. If people are trying to get a more accurate idea and having a better grasp of numbers is part of that, it seemed good info to share. 

As for everything not being just about deaths, well, it hasn't been mentioned in this thread really. And in most of the threads - people keep talking about how most will survive, but there has not been talk about the cost in time, money, and potential later deaths of those that survive. We don't yet know of a bunch of those asymptomatic cases might actually involve kidney or cardiac damage, for instance. I was more trying to say that there is even more we don't know, not that I know everything, and everyone should agree with me. 

One of the main reasons I and others want to buy more time rather than just say, "well, we will get it anyway, why not now" is to learn more about those things we don't know. When we have better testing, and we start doing some labwork and such on the asymptomatic and mild cases we will have a lot more information. Right now we are only doing that with the sickest patients. It may be that there are organ effects or coagulopathies that are going on in the mild cases that never go to the hospital, and things we could be doing, with known medications, etc, to treat those to prevent future problems. Maybe we need to be putting those people on aspirin or blood thinners, or now they are looking at having people at home use incentive spirometers to keep the lungs better inflated, etc. That stuff doesn't require new tech or huge medical advances, but it will take time to implement, and enough tests to identify those who are not sick enough for the hospital, etc. 

That's why I think we need to be considering the non lethal effects when making decisions about how and when to open up. 

[ktgrok]

I'm getting really curious if there is way more agreement than people think. For instance, the plan put out by California - do people on both "sides" agree with that plan? I'm in the "be very very cautious lets control this as much as possible" camp, and I'm okay with California's plan. Are other people in the cautious camp okay with it?

Are people who are in the "we can't do this much longer" camp also in favor of that plan?

[ktgrok]

Oh, regarding the company making surgical masks - those are absolutely needed for the general populace, good for receptionists maybe, etc. But for medical personnel to start seeing patients we need more N95 masks, I would think. The surgical masks protect the people around the wearer. The N95 masks protect the wearer, is my understanding. 

[MEmama]

3 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

I'm getting really curious if there is way more agreement than people think. For instance, the plan put out by California - do people on both "sides" agree with that plan? I'm in the "be very very cautious lets control this as much as possible" camp, and I'm okay with California's plan. Are other people in the cautious camp okay with it?

Are people who are in the "we can't do this much longer" camp also in favor of that plan?

I don’t know all the details of California’s plan, but my governor released a 4 step, 4+ month long plan (always subject to change according to new cases/ new data, which should be obvious as necessary and prudent to everyone). It is comprehensive and clearly well thought out, and yes, I am absolutely in favour of it. It is highly unlikely my family will choose to participate in the outside world for quite some time, and already many businesses have stated that just because they will be allowed to open doesn’t mean they will. I am ever so grateful to (finally!)  have a governor who cares about the people in her state and relies on science to guide her rather than ideology.
 

My family in California seem to be comfortable with their plan. My parents are in their 80s and have no problems with staying home. They still hike regularly and have lots to do at home to keep them active and  busy. They won’t be rushing out any time soon. 

[MEmama]

10 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Oh, regarding the company making surgical masks - those are absolutely needed for the general populace, good for receptionists maybe, etc. But for medical personnel to start seeing patients we need more N95 masks, I would think. The surgical masks protect the people around the wearer. The N95 masks protect the wearer, is my understanding. 

This might not be the best place to ask, but can this be clarified? If the mask I wear catches droplets from me, why wouldn’t it filter out droplets from day, my boss, who refuses to wear one (despite the mandate that masks must be worn if social distancing isn’t possible, such as in my office)? Surely they don’t work like a one way filter?

For the record, I am totally pro mask. I’m not debating that they are important; I’m just having trouble wrapping my head around why they work (mostly?) just the one way.

[MEmama]

42 minutes ago, Plum said:

All of the mixed messages are confusing. 
With the number of asymptomatic people out there that could potentially be at their highly contagious stage, it’s important for everyone to wear some kind of face covering to protect from droplets that contain the virus caused by a cough, a sneeze, talking, singing...etc. The virus particle is smaller than the knit on your cloth mask which is why multiple layers work best. With the right fabric that is layered properly and includes filters, they can meet N95 level protection. Simple bandanas and scarves won’t offer that. Those cloth masks protect the people around you from your droplets and virus particles and you rely on the people around you to wear masks to protect you from theirs.  
N95 masks with exhalation vents do nothing to protect the people around you. You may be protected but your air and droplets can be released through the vent. Not all N95 masks are created equal. 
The ultimate goal is to protect as many as possible with as minimal impact on medical PPE. Homemade cloth masks do that but just like vaccines, they work best when everyone participates. 

 

3 minutes ago, Danae said:

 

At the point when the cough or sneeze leaves your mouth the droplets are fairly big and are caught by the mask.  That keeps the majority of virus particles from making it into the air.  Once they're floating around in the air on tinier droplets the mask is not as effective at blocking them. 

Thank you! The size differences makes total sense.

Follow up question since filters were mentioned: I just ordered cloth (hemp, I think, tightly woven and multilayered) masks for everyone in my family (currently I am the only one that goes out and I wear a surgical mask or N95). I intentionally purchased these because there is a pocket for a filter, and it seems to me the more layers the better for everyone. Does anyone have suggestions for what to use as a filter? I’ve read that even folded up paper towels work surprisingly well but I’m not sure if that’s accurate. 
 

[Pam in CT]

10 hours ago, square_25 said:

Here's a primer on antibody testing and the results they are getting from it: 

https://www.propublica.org/article/what-antibody-studies-can-tell-you-and-more-importantly-what-they-cant

They are citing people with a lot of expertise... it's a good article. 

This is very good and very accessible; thank you.  I hope you've put it in the two science threads (here, and over in Politics) as well?

[vonfirmath]

1 hour ago, MEmama said:

This might not be the best place to ask, but can this be clarified? If the mask I wear catches droplets from me, why wouldn’t it filter out droplets from day, my boss, who refuses to wear one (despite the mandate that masks must be worn if social distancing isn’t possible, such as in my office)? Surely they don’t work like a one way filter?

For the record, I am totally pro mask. I’m not debating that they are important; I’m just having trouble wrapping my head around why they work (mostly?) just the one way.

 

As I understand it, it is because those droplets can also enter from the mucus around your eyes that are not covered.

 

[Pam in CT]

re announced extension based on number of DAYS, vs announced extension based on hitting defined public health metrics

30 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

In addition to this, it's important to also remember that it's not just "30" days, it's 30 MORE days.  That's 30 days on top of the 30 or 40 or more days that were already in place.  And yeah, that's a long time.  

 

25 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yeah, it's a lot of disruption. Of course, there's always some tension between "is this a good idea if people actually do it?" and "Is this a good idea given real people?" 

I wonder if it's a good idea, policy-wise, to keep extending things for a little bit at a time, to give people more hope, even if you think it'll be a month... 

.... 

 

I feel for our leaders. In addition to being thrust into overnight roles as public health managers, they also need, as part of that role, to become public psychologists.

And the psychology of how to frame a plan for re-entry is hard.  For me personally, I'd much rather hear "The Plan" being rooted in statements like "once CT has 14 consecutive days of declining new case numbers we'll enter Phase One of reopening... we'll stay in Phase One so long as new cases remain under _____/week... if new cases spike above that we'll go back to current conditions, but if new cases remain below ____/ week we'll move on to Phase Two of reopening....."

A series of if/then steps, conditioned on public health metrics in response to the effects of the virus, for me, gives confidence.

For me personally, a "Plan" based solely on # of days would suggest my leaders were following, not leading.  

Which definitely happens, and which is maybe OK in ordinary days; and is definitely Not OK in times like this. It's like a general making tactical decisions based on polling focus groups back home rather looking at intelligence on the ground.

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by Pam in CT
typo

[Arcadia]

1 hour ago, MEmama said:

This might not be the best place to ask, but can this be clarified? If the mask I wear catches droplets from me, why wouldn’t it filter out droplets from day, my boss, who refuses to wear one (despite the mandate that masks must be worn if social distancing isn’t possible, such as in my office)? Surely they don’t work like a one way filter?

@TCB

I have three different grades of earloop masks given during medical appointments. Now it’s hay fever season for me with flowers blooming. I found the yellow one soak through when I cough (allergy) while walking past a particular unknown shrub while taking a 2 mile loop walk for exercise in my neighborhood. My balaclava which I was wearing over the mask was soaked too. My blue one that is the kind they give out during flu season at urgent care was okay generally while my white one seems the thickest and softest too. 

Now CalFire is reminding people to prep their homes for fire season. 

[Liz CA]

Other countries are re-evaluating every 2 weeks. I do hear from people daily how difficult it is to live within the restrictions for such a long time. 

[MEmama]

4 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

Yeah, I like hearing plans. Cuomo has been excellent at that. Now, I'm not sure his plans are right (he has obviously not done everything perfectly by any stretch of the imagination), but it makes me feel like someone is thinking about the problem and doing their best. 

 

 

Me too. The examples given by @Pam in CT are how my governor is going about reopening Maine. It gives me great reassurance. A true leader, indeed. 

[Arcadia]

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/04/28/hundreds-of-bird-seized-from-illegal-cockfighting-ring-operating-in-dublin/

“DUBLIN (KPIX) – Hundreds of animals were seized from an illegal cockfighting ring in the East Bay. At least 600 birds were found at a rural property in Dublin.

Investigators said this was a large scale operation.

Some of the participants were cited and released but now detectives are searching for the organizers of the cockfighting ring.

The Alameda County Sheriff’s Department acted on a tip and ended up seizing 600 birds, including 200 incubating eggs. Many of the birds kept in small pens. 

On top of animal cruelty, Sgt. Ray Kelly with Alameda County Sherriff’s Dept. says there will be other charges.

“We are looking at illegal gambling, money laundering and it could go in a whole variety of directions these days,” said Sgt. Kelly.

More than 50 people were gathered inside an outbuilding on the rural property along Dublin Canyon Road. When officers arrived dozens ran off into the wooded area.

...

Deputies detained many people who admitted to coming to the area for cockfighting but authorities are still looking for the organizers . 

“During this pandemic… just seeing this reminds us that we need to continue to not lose focus on animal cruelty issues,” said Kelly.”

[MEmama]

22 minutes ago, Plum said:

This article lists all of the materials tested for breathability and effectiveness. It’s a balancing act between filtering tiny particles and being able to breathe. You also have to watch for materials that might have chemicals in them. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/the-materials-that-filter-particles-best-in-homemade-masks-testing-2020-4

This is a helpful list, thank you!

[Arcadia]

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/health/mentally-coping-with-shelter-at-home-order/2281113/

“Psychologist at the San Francisco Stress and Anxiety Center, Dr. Jonathan Horowitz says the mysterious coronavirus, and the resulting economic uncertainty, can be incredibly stressful for anyone, but especially difficult for those with mental health and substance abuse issues. 

“I can say that I’m not really surprised,” said Horowitz. “We’re usually asking them how much engagement do they have with other people? How much do they get outside and exercise? And we’re generally trying to encourage those behaviors because they are protective in terms of mental health. Nowadays we really can’t do that.”

Dr. Horowitz says he’s also seeing an uptick in shelter-at-home stress because of crowding at home.

“Here in the Bay Area, there are people who have many roommates sometimes and they’re in a situation where it’s not really a comfortable situation to begin with, and now they’re there all the time,” he said.”

[Arcadia]

California governor’s plan is depressing to people who think it’s going to be a pie in the sky to achieve. After reading his six factors plan, people are estimating that it would be a miracle if local public schools could reopen in August.  No one I know was expecting retail (car dealers, malls) to open back before Memorial Day. Now people are just seeing if retail is open back gradually by Independence Day.

[Arcadia]

My medical care team are hearing more people thinking of divorcing. So SIP is taking a toll on marriages as well. My oncologist actually checks in during my routine appointments that my mental health is holding up with my husband working from home because my home is small and open concept which means my teens, my husband and I have to have headsets on all day to work (school work and work from home).

I am told to go out and walk as often as I was doing pre-SIP. I was walking about an hour daily in the neighborhood, walking to the supermarket by a longer route and then walking home by the normal route if carrying groceries. My fatigue and joint pains from hormone therapy went up with SIP. 

[Arcadia]

5 minutes ago, kdsuomi said:

I don't think they will be open by the 4th. He said that curbside pickup will be in Phase 2, so seemingly malls would have to wait until at least Phase 3, no? I don't know where car dealerships would be because it's honestly a different situation. 

My friends don’t think so too. But even in dual income households working from home, people are tired of online shopping and there is only so much backyard space (if any) to garden.

Best Buy and Dicks Sporting Goods already have curb side pick up here, not at all locations.

While we are not shopping for a new car, Memorial Day is when the car dealerships gets in a festive mood. We enjoy the decorations as we drive pass an entire stretch of car dealerships. 

[Pam in CT]

re communications strategy - Less is More vs More is Reassuring

21 minutes ago, Plum said:

It will be nice to hear a plan. NV gov is waiting until the last day of his order to announce his plan. It’s making everyone anxious. 

That's hard.  In my area folks are generally very grateful for our governor's daily updates (most days by newsletter rather than press conference, but there's something put out every day) and NY Gov Cuomo's daily briefings.  

I'd rather hear "this is what we know, this is what we're still trying to get a handle on, this is what we're thinking based on what we've got so far" than radio silence because there are so many parts still moving.

(But again, that's psychology, and not everyone feels that way.... some people hear that kind of language as moving the goalposts.   This is very hard for our leaders.)

 

 

 

 

 

[Arcadia]

4 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

 

(But again, that's psychology, and not everyone feels that way.... some people hear that kind of language as moving the goalposts.   This is very hard for our leaders.)

My area tend to have numbers driven people. So people want to know cases by zip code. San Jose is a big city and people want to know where the hotspots are because the data is there with the county officials, just not released to public. San Francisco has released case numbers by zip code.

What numbers driven people are asking in the reopening plan is numbers like:

1) how low does the case load need to go in terms of total cases and new cases at the county/city level. 

2) how much PPE and masks do the healthcare organizations (Kaiser, Sutter, Stanford, etc) need to amass before procedures that are being postponed are back to pre-SIP scheduling. 

3) how much testing both for the virus and for the antibody needs to be done

E.g. https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/To-re-open-California-must-test-60-000-people-15219607.php

“California will have to test 60,000 to 80,000 people for the coronavirus each day to reopen the state, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday as he outlined new testing goals that are triple the number he had previously talked about, and far more than those currently performed.

As recently as last week, Newsom said 25,000 daily tests would have to be conducted across the state by this week. Currently, just about 16,000 tests are done each day.”

https://abc30.com/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-quarantine/6133255/ (census Population estimates, July 1, 2019, 999,101)

“"We're estimating we need about 1,500 tests per day to safely and effectively really reopen all of Fresno County and feel safe that we're testing enough people," said Fresno County health officer Dr. Rais Vohra.”

[ElizabethB]

2 hours ago, MEmama said:

 

Thank you! The size differences makes total sense.

Follow up question since filters were mentioned: I just ordered cloth (hemp, I think, tightly woven and multilayered) masks for everyone in my family (currently I am the only one that goes out and I wear a surgical mask or N95). I intentionally purchased these because there is a pocket for a filter, and it seems to me the more layers the better for everyone. Does anyone have suggestions for what to use as a filter? I’ve read that even folded up paper towels work surprisingly well but I’m not sure if that’s accurate. 
 

Vacuum bags are supposedly very effective.

Edited April 29, 2020 by ElizabethB

[Arcadia]

Crosspost. Guess Bolinas would want to stay close to anyone not staying or working there.  

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/29/bolinas-study-finds-no-coronavirus-cases-in-townwide-testing-probe/

“Nobody in Bolinas tested positive for the coronavirus last week in a rare, privately funded study that aimed to test all of the town’s residents, according to Marin County public health officials.

“It’s a relief,” said Dr. Matt Willis, Marin County’s chief public health officer, who confirmed the results Tuesday.

Willis said the study highlighted the success of the stay-at-home order he issued last month in collaboration with other Bay Area health officers, which resulted in the closure of many West Marin parks and beaches and triggered a reduction in tourism and travel throughout the area.”

[Carol in Cal.]

13 hours ago, Liz CA said:

 

What little testing there is available (unless you pay for it out of pocket at private lab) in my area has to be ordered by a physician even the antibody test. Not sure how much date we have here for antibody testing. I looked into antibody testing and found out I'd have to convince a physician of its necessity. Have not done that yet.

In Tuolumne County private tests cost a rumored $119, and are from Quest lab.  No doctor's order needed.  No one is completely sure that their test is valid.  Just FYI.

[Arcadia]

15 minutes ago, Carol in Cal. said:

In Tuolumne County private tests cost a rumored $119, and are from Quest lab.  No doctor's order needed.  No one is completely sure that their test is valid.  Just FYI.

@Liz CA

https://questdirect.questdiagnostics.com/products/covid-19-immune-response/b580e541-78a5-48a6-b17b-7bad949dcb57

[Kanin]

1 hour ago, Arcadia said:

California governor’s plan is depressing to people who think it’s going to be a pie in the sky to achieve. After reading his six factors plan, people are estimating that it would be a miracle if local public schools could reopen in August.  No one I know was expecting retail (car dealers, malls) to open back before Memorial Day. Now people are just seeing if retail is open back gradually by Independence Day.

I saw a video where the Gov was saying schools might reopen early for the next school year, in July or August...?

[mathnerd]

1 hour ago, ElizabethB said:

Vacuum bags are supposedly very effective.

One warning about using vacuum bags cut into strips, 3M air filters cut into strips, car automative air filters cut into strips and inserted into cloth masks for filtration capabilities that match those of the N95 masks: please do your due diligence and read as much research as possible about them before using. All of them were not designed for human use and have not undergone widespread testing for being used in close contact with your nose and airways. They can (and will) contain carcinogens and undesirable material like fiberglass and you do not want to breath through it ... the Youtubers using these parts to rig up masks don't always have enough research to back up their design ideas. One way to add filters into cloth masks is to cut a piece of felt cloth and insert it into the pocket of your mask and it does a better job than a regular cloth filter, or use a regular paper towel (kitchen paper towel) insert.

Edited April 29, 2020 by mathnerd

[Arcadia]

12 minutes ago, Mainer said:

I saw a video where the Gov was saying schools might reopen early for the next school year, in July or August...?

It’s a big “might”.  From his six factor plan.

 
“The ability for businesses, schools, and child care facilities to support physical distancing
Key Questions
 Have we worked with businesses to support physical distancing practices and introduced guidelines to provide health checks when employees or the general public enter the premises?
 Do we have supplies and equipment to keep the workforce and customers safe?”