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About hopeallgoeswell

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  1. Emily, sorry to hear about your RSI after flu shots. If there isn't a true placebo, then how do we suss out SAEs, both short and long-term? Isn't that why other pharmaceutical products that go through testing use things such as sugar pills as placebos in their trials? If a product being tested was suspected to give the recipient dry mouth/nausea/insomnia/etc., would the "placebo" also have to be known for giving people the same side effects so people in the trial wouldn't know if they got the actual drug or the placebo? The package inserts of vaccines show that most people, tha
  2. Do you know if all of the potential vaccines are being tested against an inert placebo in all phases? In most other vaccines, there isn't a true control, just another vaccine (different type, different brand, or previous version) or the ingredients of the vaccine being tested minus the pathogen. It would give us very solid data and a clear picture (e.g. short-term side effects and efficacy) if a true inert placebo is used and a challenge study is done. If that is the case, more people might be willing to get it.
  3. Apologies. I have been keeping an eye on case numbers. I just looked specifically at positivity rates. We had a 2% positivity each week until the middle of July, with two outbreaks the first week of June. For the next six weeks it was 4.9%, 3.7%, 4.1%, 4.7%, 4.1%, and 4.2%. During that time, 7 facilities reported outbreaks from weeks 4-6 of the high rates. September was 2.8%, 2.5%, 2% (2 outbreaks that week), 2%, and 1.7%. October was 2% weekly with 5 outbreaks reported for this week. Edited to add: Death counts are in my previous post through the end of August. There were an addit
  4. No, positivity increase/decrease doesn't seem to correlate with when there is an outbreak in a care facility. We had no care facility outbreaks from the start of reporting mid-April through the last week of May, with 928 cases and one death (not specified from where) from 4/14-5/26. The first week of June we had our first two facility outbreaks, which added four deaths over that week and the next (not specified from where). The second week of June through the first week of August we had no new facility outbreaks (case numbers more than doubled from 6/9 to 7/14 then started to decline). Our
  5. I'm not going to give my exact location (for reasons you probably understand). Our death count remains the same until an outbreak happens in a care facility, and then they tick up. On the bright side, our % positive rate for people over 65 was cut in half after the first few months.
  6. Either proving or disproving this should be a priority right now as it would add valuable data to inform a strategy moving forward. Scientists/doctors on both sides are speaking on conjecture. There are other viruses that offer cross-reactive protection to differing strains within the same virus family, so I don't think it is off-base to say that it is likely the case for coronaviruses.
  7. I have been looking at my county's numbers and have found that the positivity rate in long term care facilities is a better predictor of the death rate, which isn't surprising/alarming considering most all-cause deaths occur in long-term care facilities and most patients in places like that don't have a very prolonged longevity. https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2010/08/98172/social-support-key-nursing-home-length-stay-death “One quarter of all deaths in the United States occur in nursing homes, and that figure is expected to rise to 40 percent by the year 2020,” says Smith. "The averag
  8. I have not read through any of the responses, but I wanted to drop these two here in case they haven't been linked yet; there are many other articles and papers on the subject. More evidence of some level of protective immunity has come to light since the beginning of the year, so if we need ~70% of the population to have immunity and ~50% already has immunity, we only need ~20% to reach herd immunity. If the people already infected is a factor of ~17-20 of the positive rate, that changes the game significantly. Waiting for a vaccine that may or may not come to fruition should be Plan B. P
  9. The guy in the video was using the term Gompertz curve, which was new to me; I was aware of Farr's curve. It looks like Gompertz curve is not exponential. Maybe because India is so densely populated with less than ideal living conditions still in some places, the curve was sharper? I speculate it's because, like what was said upthread, that the medically fragile people are removed from the pool first and then what's mostly left is a population that can handle the illness, so herd immunity is reached?
  10. In the video I posted, it explained why southern places (or maybe it was, more specifically, places close the the equator) get not only different shaped virus curves but also different timing as to when in the year viruses tend to hit the hardest. Places like the U.S. that are so spread out tend to get one sharper spike in the north and then a smaller, flatter spike in the south later in the year. Hence, we don't really get a "second wave," it's just the same virus moving to a different location. I am paraphrasing and not using scientific language like the video did, but hopefully I got the p
  11. We haven't had "so few cases" near me, just few deaths. People are only wearing face coverings in stores. People are still having parties at their houses with no face coverings. They are still eating in restaurants with no face coverings. Life didn't really slow down here except for the last part of March. I think the low deaths might be because the population here is relativity active/healthy and there are low minority and aging populations, but that is just me speculating. I *am* saying that we should be looking at excess deaths, not just covid deaths. From my post: "Excess deaths
  12. Nature does what nature does. In some respects, she's a cruel mistress. It is really pretty here now with the leaves changing and falling, so she's not cruel in all respects :).
  13. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf
  14. I have not down played this, nor have I made it into a giant. It is a virus. People are dying. It dies out in one place and moves onto another. I'm outside of Seattle so we have had cases, to include a spike in the summer, which stayed pretty high for 6-8 weeks. We are at the start of another one right now even though we have been fairly restricted since March, 100% masking in public since July 7, and no in-person school since mid-March. My county is still under 20 deaths recorded with covid out of a total population of 300,000. I understand that a person's experiences can color t
  15. Any of these? https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768532 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e2.htm?s_cid=mm6928e2_w
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