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DS got home 3 hours ago!  ❤️❤️

Update-  my youngest is not only short of breath, coughing, dizzy, nausaues, and with headache-  she is also confused.  I called our doctor and talked with him and she is going to be going to the ER.

That's not a blanket right.  If my religion required human sacrifice, I can't practice it.  If my religion required sexual assault, I can't practice it. Freedom of religion isn't a blanket right

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14 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

😂Thanks for the chuckle........just mailed this to several friends in England who I am trying to check in on most days.  The reality is there isn’t a whole lot say, so am super appreciative positive or at least funny articles to agg in.

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Worldwide deaths have doubled again but the doubling rate slowed - took 7 days this time instead of 5. 

April 4 64700 7 days to double
March 28 31000 5 days to double 

March 23 16500 6 days to double 

March 17 8000 8 days to double
March 9 4000 20 days to double
Feb 18 2000
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3 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Again this isn't news.  Many pages back we discussed studies that this wasn't just a virus attacking the lungs and causing pneumonia.  It breaches the blood brain barrier and causes inflammation everywhere.  It attacks the brain stem, the heart, the liver, and the lungs just like many cytokine storm inducing illnesses.  Young doctors who are spending all their time treating patients rather than reading the research don't have time to be anything but shocked that this isn't just like any other viral pneumonia.  He probably hasn't been told the cytokine storm thing at all.

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1 hour ago, lewelma said:

so why not more rah rah news on this?

While I think it is good news, especially for testing first responders and frontline healthcare workers, I think there are a few caveats. They are still ramping up production. They still require PPE and swabs, things in very short supply in some areas, including my state. And although the results are quick, only one test can be completed at a time. Other methods can run around 100 at a time. That’s why there was initial disagreement over where these tests would be most effective. Any additional bit of testing helps. But when testing was halted at the largest hospital in my state for almost ten days, except for admitted patients, it was due to the PPE and swabs.

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6 minutes ago, Katy said:

 

Again this isn't news.  Many pages back we discussed studies that this wasn't just a virus attacking the lungs and causing pneumonia.  It breaches the blood brain barrier and causes inflammation everywhere.  It attacks the brain stem, the heart, the liver, and the lungs just like many cytokine storm inducing illnesses.  Young doctors who are spending all their time treating patients rather than reading the research don't have time to be anything but shocked that this isn't just like any other viral pneumonia.  He probably hasn't been told the cytokine storm thing at all.

 

Whether it’s “news” or not, if frontline doctors particularly icu specialists don’t know what they are dealing with, that seems significant. 

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@lewelma@Frances@TCB@wathe@Pen

News link https://www.biospace.com/article/fda-approves-1st-covid-19-antibody-test/

“The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the first blood test that looks for the antibodies against the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19. This is different than assays that test for presence of the virus—those test to determine if a patient has COVID-19. These new antibody tests determine if the person was exposed to the virus, had COVID-19 and recovered. And it suggests, if positive, that the person is now immune to COVID-19 and can’t get it again.

Research Triangle Park, North Carolina-based Cellex was granted an emergency use authorization (EUA) on its test yesterday.

The test is performed on a blood sample taken from a patient’s vein and can be performed by laboratories certified under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments of 1988 (CLIA), the Health and Human Services division that oversees clinical diagnostic testing in the United States.

The authorization stated, in part, “Results are for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, IgM and IgG that are generated as part of the human immune response to the virus. IgM antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 are generally detectable in blood several days after initial infection, although levels over the course of infection are not well characterized. IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 become detectable later following infection. Positive results for both IgG and IgM could occur after infection and can be indicative of acute or recent infection.”

Mayo Clinic is reportedly to begin antibody testing on Monday as well, using an internally developed test. Elitza Theel, director of the Mayo Clinic laboratory testing COVID-19 antibody tests, told Minnesota Public Radio (MPR), “It’s important to know that these types of tests are different than all of the molecular tests that are being done off of nasal swabs or throat swabs. Those tests detect viral genetic material [to show whether the coronavirus has infected that person].”

Theel also pointed out that, in some cases, it takes 10 to 11 days for an individual’s immune system to attack the virus and produce the antibodies. That’s why the tests won’t be used to diagnose patients with COVID-19 that are showing symptoms within the last two or three days.

Theel also says Mayo hopes to have the tests available next week, but because of a limited supply, will be doing a slow roll out and hope that commercial manufacturers will speed production in the next few weeks.

“FDA approval is not needed at this time,” Theel said. “However, laboratories that are offering these tests have to go through a very rigorous verification process to make sure that the tests they’re offering provide the right results.””

FDA link for the Cellex testdownload

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12 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Whether it’s “news” or not, if frontline doctors particularly icu specialists don’t know what they are dealing with, that seems significant. 

 

It seems typical to me.  Doctors have to memorize an enormous amount of information.  Once you pick a specialty you pretty much forget everything that doesn't pertain to it. It doesn't surprise me at all that he thought an acute viral illness would act like any other acute viral illness, or that he's shocked that it doesn't. He's young and he only knows what he's been trained to know.  Differential diagnosis in a narrow specialty doesn't leave a lot of room for other information.  This is one of the issues with our medical system that many people don't run into unless they have a rare disease that is difficult to diagnose or treat.

Most viral pneumonia is quite mild unless someone has an immune issue.  I've literally only seen people with HIV hospitalized for it except during the swine flu epidemic.  ETA:  I mean working on adult med-surg floors.  Obviously children are hospitalized with things like RSV all the time.

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1 hour ago, regentrude said:

I tried that just awhile ago. With this design, you end up with eight layers of fabric. I found it very difficult to breathe. Gotta look for different material.

How do you glasses wearers handle this? First, my glasses fog up really bad, second, the elastic behind my ears interferes with my glasses. Gotta rig something with ties.

Yes! I got a bandanna yesterday and tried the mask and couldn't stand it. Then I tried folding it lengthwise in four and tying it above my ponytail. That covers my nose and mouth, but its still too hard to breath through imho. I finally went with folding it into a triangle and tying it above my ponytail while tucking the hanging part under my chin. That was the only bearable way to wear the bandanna. I hope two layers is good enough. 

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16 minutes ago, chiguirre said:

Yes! I got a bandanna yesterday and tried the mask and couldn't stand it. Then I tried folding it lengthwise in four and tying it above my ponytail. That covers my nose and mouth, but its still too hard to breath through imho. I finally went with folding it into a triangle and tying it above my ponytail while tucking the hanging part under my chin. That was the only bearable way to wear the bandanna. I hope two layers is good enough. 

I tried one of my homemade masks(pictured of the mask thread) and went bike riding.  I overheated really quickly, so did Dh wearing his. In the 80’s today.  Had to breathe through my mouth.  Two layers quilters cotton.  Thinking about making a single layer mask for biking.

Trying to figure out for  my kids, biking and masks with water necessary during ride.  The potential for contamination from the mask seems huge because they will need to take it on and off to drink.  What do runners etc use?

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22 minutes ago, chiguirre said:

Yes! I got a bandanna yesterday and tried the mask and couldn't stand it. Then I tried folding it lengthwise in four and tying it above my ponytail. That covers my nose and mouth, but its still too hard to breath through imho. I finally went with folding it into a triangle and tying it above my ponytail while tucking the hanging part under my chin. That was the only bearable way to wear the bandanna. I hope two layers is good enough. 

 

Was  it all cotton? 

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37 minutes ago, square_25 said:

If anyone but me is interested in amount of PPE needed, here's a link where the governor of Michigan mentions some numbers:

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meet-press-march-29-2020-n1171591

Relevant quote: 

"I'm grateful we got a shipment from FEMA yesterday for 112,000 N95 masks, but, you know, we're going to be in dire straits again in a matter of days." 

I remember the orders of magnitude for NY being similar. Hundreds of thousands would last a few days, and that I think is with rationing (because everyone ratios in times of this much scarcity, and that was reported by the doctors and nurses.) 

Not sure if this is relevant to anyone outside the state, but Minnesota has a new tracker for PPE needs. It looks like their stock of N95 masks is almost 375,000 but they want another 1.6 million masks to be prepared.

https://mn.gov/covid19/data/response.jsp

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21 minutes ago, mumto2 said:

I tried one of my homemade masks(pictured of the mask thread) and went bike riding.  I overheated really quickly, so did Dh wearing his. In the 80’s today.  Had to breathe through my mouth.  Two layers quilters cotton.  Thinking about making a single layer mask for biking.

Trying to figure out for  my kids, biking and masks with water necessary during ride.  The potential for contamination from the mask seems huge because they will need to take it on and off to drink.  What do runners etc use?

I see a lot of benefit in wearing a mask when you're around other people like at the store and such.  But my husband, who is a physicist by training and in the Air Force was on the "cleaning up nuclear spills" deployment team and had a ton of training with PPE for that says if it's not hard to breathe, it's not doing a lot of good.  He doesn't see a lot of point in masking for bike riding or running or exercise where you are not in proximity to other people, because 1) you will be messing with it to drink and such, which makes you less safe, and 2) there's not a lot of need if you aren't around other people.  

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1 minute ago, Terabith said:

I see a lot of benefit in wearing a mask when you're around other people like at the store and such.  But my husband, who is a physicist by training and in the Air Force was on the "cleaning up nuclear spills" deployment team and had a ton of training with PPE for that says if it's not hard to breathe, it's not doing a lot of good.  He doesn't see a lot of point in masking for bike riding or running or exercise where you are not in proximity to other people, because 1) you will be messing with it to drink and such, which makes you less safe, and 2) there's not a lot of need if you aren't around other people.  

Thanks, sort of what we were thinking.  At most the kids pass 20 people in their 20 plus miles on a pretty wide trail.  Everyone is trying to be polite but not get too close.  I am thinking risk outweighs benefit.

We wanted to try out the fit of the mask today as I am making for a few other people too.  Hubby did some alterations to my basic pattern from his experiences with masks in labs etc They are tight😉and can have a filter put in if we get to that.  But hot!

Btw, regarding glasses fogging ....my sunglasses fogged because I put them on in the house, hubby’s did not as he put them on outside.  No glass fog issues after we started moving.
 

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3 hours ago, lewelma said:

so why not more rah rah news on this?

Because we don't believe it until we see it. Because our actual hospitals are putting out press releases that say the reality is that almost nobody can be tested unless they die and the government is having daily press conferences saying we have no testing shortages.

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2 hours ago, matrips said:

The federal government is a backup; it was never meant to be the main supplier. Their stockpile was traditionally meant for essential personnel to keep the government, military, health, and law enforcement running.  It was not meant for the regular citizens. They should have been covered at a local level for 6-8 weeks. 

Neither of those things is true — it was always intended to help "regular citizens," and it was designed for the initial stage of a public health emergency, not to kick in after 6-8 weeks. Dr. Tara O'Toole, who was chair of an advisory committee on the stockpile for the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, said the national stockpile "was intended to bridge from the moment of crisis until a little while after when the private sector would be able to gear up and use the whole global supply chain to deliver what was needed.”

After weeks of criticism from multiple states about the lack of resources, the President explicitly said that he will not take calls from governors who criticize him and do not show appropriate appreciation. He specifically singled out the governors of Washington and Michigan, and said he had told Pence not to call them, but Pence did anyway. Suddenly we have new, unelected, totally unqualified pandemic response coordinator, who announces: “The notion of the federal stockpile was it’s supposed to be our stockpile. It’s not supposed to be states’ stockpiles that they then use.” Who exactly does that "our" refer to, if not the people? The public, whose tax dollars paid for the stockpile, have no rights to it? Now, for the first time in history, the national stockpile belongs to the administration, who can distribute it however they choose (i.e. to the states whose governors express sufficient appreciation and avoid criticizing the president)?

This is what the SNS website said until 2 days ago:

"Strategic National Stockpile is the nation’s largest supply of life-saving pharmaceuticals and medical supplies for use in a public health emergency severe enough to cause local supplies to run out.  When state, local, tribal, and territorial responders request federal assistance to support their response efforts, the stockpile ensures that the right medicines and supplies get to those who need them most during an emergency. Organized for scalable response to a variety of public health threats, this repository contains enough supplies to respond to multiple large-scale emergencies simultaneously."

After Jared Kushner attempted to redefine the purpose and ownership of the stockpile,  the wording on the website was hastily changed to say it is just a "supplement" and that states have their own stockpiles. Even with that sudden redefinition of the mission, which Kushner does not seem to have cleared with anyone else, there is nothing on the website that suggests it is not intended for public use, or is only available after 6-8 weeks:

"The Strategic National Stockpile's role is to supplement state and local supplies during public health emergencies. Many states have products stockpiled, as well. The supplies, medicines, and devices for life-saving care contained in the stockpile can be used as a short-term stopgap buffer when the immediate supply of adequate amounts of these materials may not be immediately available."

Here is a ink to the current text, which was changed by Kusher on April 2nd: https://www.phe.gov/about/sns/Pages/default.aspx

Here is the text as it appeared before Kushner changed it: https://web.archive.org/web/20200402234018/https://www.phe.gov/about/sns/Pages/default.aspx

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Terabith said:

I remember getting that vaccine over 20 years ago (as a teen) before we went to Germany. I was never supposed to get tb tested, but forgot when I was a young adult. Now, they think I was exposed to TB (I think I'm in a database of some sort), and when I told the nurse I had been vaccinated years ago, she said there was no such thing. It took a younger doctor to tell her that there is, but not readily available in the US.

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1 hour ago, TracyP said:

Not sure if this is relevant to anyone outside the state, but Minnesota has a new tracker for PPE needs. It looks like their stock of N95 masks is almost 375,000 but they want another 1.6 million masks to be prepared.

NZ has 80 million masks in the stockpile for 4 million people.  I don't know the ratio of surgical to N95. But the local production here before ramp up was about 15K N95 and 185K surgical per day (Now 50k/day N95).  The government said that it had a 'good' supply. 

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In all honesty, can anyone tell me how Jared came to be in charge of the pandemic (as well as peace in the mideast and the opioid crisis)?  What happened to Pence?  

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9 minutes ago, Terabith said:

In all honesty, can anyone tell me how Jared came to be in charge of the pandemic (as well as peace in the mideast and the opioid crisis)?  What happened to Pence?  

I hadn't kept up in a couple of days and didn't even know a Jared. I had to google. Maybe he got the position because he's Trump's son-in-law...

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35 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Neither of those things is true — it was always intended to help "regular citizens," and it was designed for the initial stage of a public health emergency, not to kick in after 6-8 weeks. Dr. Tara O'Toole, who was chair of an advisory committee on the stockpile for the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, said the national stockpile "was intended to bridge from the moment of crisis until a little while after when the private sector would be able to gear up and use the whole global supply chain to deliver what was needed.”

After weeks of criticism from multiple states about the lack of resources, the President explicitly said that he will not take calls from governors who criticize him and do not show appropriate appreciation. He specifically singled out the governors of Washington and Michigan, and said he had told Pence not to call them, but Pence did anyway. Suddenly we have new, unelected, totally unqualified pandemic response coordinator, who announces: “The notion of the federal stockpile was it’s supposed to be our stockpile. It’s not supposed to be states’ stockpiles that they then use.” Who exactly does that "our" refer to, if not the people? The public, whose tax dollars paid for the stockpile, have no rights to it? Now, for the first time in history, the national stockpile belongs to the administration, who can distribute it however they choose (i.e. to the states whose governors express sufficient appreciation and avoid criticizing the president)?

This is what the SNS website said until 2 days ago:

"Strategic National Stockpile is the nation’s largest supply of life-saving pharmaceuticals and medical supplies for use in a public health emergency severe enough to cause local supplies to run out.  When state, local, tribal, and territorial responders request federal assistance to support their response efforts, the stockpile ensures that the right medicines and supplies get to those who need them most during an emergency. Organized for scalable response to a variety of public health threats, this repository contains enough supplies to respond to multiple large-scale emergencies simultaneously."

After Jared Kushner attempted to redefine the purpose and ownership of the stockpile,  the wording on the website was hastily changed to say it is just a "supplement" and that states have their own stockpiles. Even with that sudden redefinition of the mission, which Kushner does not seem to have cleared with anyone else, there is nothing on the website that suggests it is not intended for public use, or is only available after 6-8 weeks:

"The Strategic National Stockpile's role is to supplement state and local supplies during public health emergencies. Many states have products stockpiled, as well. The supplies, medicines, and devices for life-saving care contained in the stockpile can be used as a short-term stopgap buffer when the immediate supply of adequate amounts of these materials may not be immediately available."

Here is a ink to the current text, which was changed by Kusher on April 2nd: https://www.phe.gov/about/sns/Pages/default.aspx

Here is the text as it appeared before Kushner changed it: https://web.archive.org/web/20200402234018/https://www.phe.gov/about/sns/Pages/default.aspx

 

 

 

I was taking my information from multiple cdc/hhs pandemic guidelines published over the past 15 years for companies and state and local governments.  None of them was written before 2018 that I read.  They have a different take on it and specify the first priority of the stockpile is allocating resources to those most in need to keep the country running- healthcare workers, government, law enforcement etc. 

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23 minutes ago, matrips said:

I was taking my information from multiple cdc/hhs pandemic guidelines published over the past 15 years for companies and state and local governments.  None of them was written before 2018 that I read.  They have a different take on it and specify the first priority of the stockpile is allocating resources to those most in need to keep the country running- healthcare workers, government, law enforcement etc. 

Healthcare workers generally work for private companies, non-profits or local government depending on the particular hospital. A very small percentage work for the VA or in the military. Law enforcement that has direct contact with the general public is almost completely employed by local or state government. The PPE that governors are requesting will go to healthcare workers and LEOs who are mostly not directly employed by their states. 

Federal workers don't provide much front line healthcare and public safety.

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36 minutes ago, Terabith said:

In all honesty, can anyone tell me how Jared came to be in charge of the pandemic (as well as peace in the mideast and the opioid crisis)?  What happened to Pence?  

Pence was returning calls from governors who were being critical of his boss. Actually, there have been reports for a while now that Jared has been closely involved from the very beginning and that one reason Trump has been so slow to respond to developments was that he has been relying on Jared to "do research" and report back to him. In fact, right before Trump finally declared a national emergency, there were posts on a forum for medical professionals in which someone asked for suggestions about how the government should best respond, with the OP saying that he would be able to get the information directly into the White House. After various people posted responses, the OP thanked everyone and said Jared was reading their suggestions. Why listen to experts whose entire careers have been devoted to epidemiology and public health when you can get advice from your real estate developer son-in-law whose sole qualification for the job is that he knows how to google?

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1 hour ago, matrips said:

I was taking my information from multiple cdc/hhs pandemic guidelines published over the past 15 years for companies and state and local governments.  None of them was written before 2018 that I read.  They have a different take on it and specify the first priority of the stockpile is allocating resources to those most in need to keep the country running- healthcare workers, government, law enforcement etc. 

Obviously medical equipment and supplies go to the healthcare workers and first responders who treat the public, not directly to members of the public. Equally obvious is the fact that the federal government is not sending emergency supplies to individual hospitals, EMTs, and police depts. — all requests for federal aid must go through the governor's office of each state, and then the state emergency management team coordinates the distribution. So Jared Kushner's unilateral declaration that the Strategic National Stockpile was never intended for the states' use is completely false, and was designed to deflect criticism about the slow and disorganized federal response by claiming "that's not our job." Yeah it is their job, and always has been. 

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10 hours ago, Math teacher said:

It's surprising to me how different communities are so varied in their mask use. Yesterday, Dh and I went to Super 1 and probably 1/3 of the customers wore a mask. Today, I went to a store about 35 miles away, and I thought I was the only one with a mask until I saw one more person in the check out with one on. 

Come on people, get with the program.

 

I ordered masks on Tuesday. They aren't here yet. I have been unable to find any locally

 

(I actually SAW disposable masks Friday March 13 and did NOT buy them because I was leaving them for people who needed them more. Did I wish I'd picked them up today? yes) I tried using a scarf as a mask today but it  didn't work so well. Even though at home I was able to walk around in it for 20 minutes without slipping, it didn't last that long in the store and when I realized how much I was putting my hands near my face to make it stay up -- I ended up going without.

 

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42 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

it didn't last that long in the store and when I realized how much I was putting my hands near my face to make it stay up -- I ended up going without.

This is exactly why NZ is not recommending face masks. Because they are uncomfortable, you touch your face more. 

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So after insisting that states are responsible for finding their own PPE, and now Jared claiming that the national stockpile was never intended for states to use, the Feds are not only outbidding states for the PPE healthcare providers desperately need, they are just outright seizing shipments placed by state and local governments on the day of delivery:

Feds Take All Of County’s 35,000 Mask Order Targeted For Health Care Workers

 

 

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5 hours ago, matrips said:

I was taking my information from multiple cdc/hhs pandemic guidelines published over the past 15 years for companies and state and local governments.  None of them was written before 2018 that I read.  They have a different take on it and specify the first priority of the stockpile is allocating resources to those most in need to keep the country running- healthcare workers, government, law enforcement etc. 

If you were to go to FEMA’s independent study site, you could Find many courses on how emergency response is supposed to work, with at least one specific to pandemic, but ALL USemergency planning is meant to be done the same way.

  • Individual persons having emergency plans and supplies for themselves, and others if possible
  • Individual organizations/companies having emergency plans and supplies and being prepared to help persons/orgs/companies/gov’t.
  • Local governments having emergency plans and supplies for the individuals/orgs/etc. in their jurisdiction and to provide mutual aid to other jurisdictions
  • County governments having emergency plans and supplies for their local governments and to provide mutual aid to other counties
  • State governments having emergency plan and supplies for their counties and to provide mutual aid to other states
  • Federal government having emergency plans and supplies for the federal level and to provide aid to the states and territories 

The scale in this case is larger than the vast majority of scenarios, which of course makes it much more complicated and resources more scarce.  But it doesn’t change the role each level is supposed to play. And each level that doesn’t fulfill their role messes up the rest.

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9 hours ago, Katy said:

 

This is what a cytokine storm looks like.  He probably rarely sees rheumatology phenomenon in acute illness like this.

 

His main point seemed to be that he thinks patients need oxygen, but not at the high pressure the ventilators are set for. I think as I understood it, having now listened to another of his messages also, that he thinks the ventilators need to be reprogrammed to operate with lower pressure.  ? 

Do you think high pressure ventilation is still the correct strategy? 

As GM and Ford have converted to ventilator production for CV19 crisis, it seems relevant to know if the ventilators being produced for CV19 are correct the correct strategy for CV19. 

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Masks for biking etc

might a plastic face guard like a stiff report cover be attached to a bike helmet so as to reduce direct contact with airborne material whether dust, debris or also virus, while not obstructing breathing? 

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3 hours ago, Corraleno said:

So after insisting that states are responsible for finding their own PPE, and now Jared claiming that the national stockpile was never intended for states to use, the Feds are not only outbidding states for the PPE healthcare providers desperately need, they are just outright seizing shipments placed by state and local governments on the day of delivery:

Feds Take All Of County’s 35,000 Mask Order Targeted For Health Care Workers

Yep. This is why I wasn't surprised we'd steal shipments from foreign govts; we were already stealing them from our own people. How many masks does Jared need, and where *are* they going???

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Is anybody able to read this? It is in Italian and behind a paywall, so not happening for me.... It estimates Italy's actual number of covid cases to be 5 million. Or even twice that counting asymptomatic cases.

https://rep.repubblica.it/pwa/locali/2020/04/03/news/milano_la_ricerca_dell_universita_statale_i_contagi_reali_in_italia_potrebbero_essere_5_milioni_-253027121/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I253056306-C12-P3-S5.4-T1

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12 hours ago, lewelma said:

so why not more rah rah news on this?

A million tests could be used by New York City alone (population 8 million). This country has over 320 million people. And medical workers should be tested more than once.

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10 hours ago, Terabith said:

That is interesting. Raises the question about the age of patients in countries that have discontinued the vaccine because the disease is no longer prevalent. In my home country, older people have the vaccine, but it has not been recommended anymore since 1998 and is not available. So, wouldn't that mean older people fare better and younger people are harder hit? Or does it just barely mitigate the higher risk of older patients?

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I have been watching the IHME projections that the task force seemed to be using. I was looking for the update that was supposed to come yesterday but never did. Unless I am just looking in the wrong place for it. 

I liked the tool but it was way off for my state and I was anxious to see updated projections. 

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12 minutes ago, Pen said:

Are Avigan and Favipiravir  two names for one thing ?  

Or two different perhaps promising treatments? 

Same thing 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078369/china-and-south-korea-split-over-japanese-anti-flu-drug-avigan

“Japan’s neighbours are divided over use of the controversial anti-flu drug ‘Avigan’ in their countries; with China welcoming the trial use, while South Korea has declined, saying “serious side effects” potentially cause fetal damage.

The Trump administration and US expert groups are also at odds over using the unproven drug, joining the latest international debate.

The antiviral drug, also known as favipiravir and developed by Japanese company Fujifilm Toyama Chemical Company, has emerged as a potential drug to treat patients infected with the deadly coronavirus, Sars-CoV-2, for which there is currently no cure.

Favipiravir is widely known as a treatment effective on a wide range of viruses – including coronavirus, arenavirus, bunyavirus and filovirus – by selectively inhibiting viruses and preventing replication.”

Edited by Arcadia
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40 minutes ago, regentrude said:

That is interesting. Raises the question about the age of patients in countries that have discontinued the vaccine because the disease is no longer prevalent. In my home country, older people have the vaccine, but it has not been recommended anymore since 1998 and is not available. So, wouldn't that mean older people fare better and younger people are harder hit? Or does it just barely mitigate the higher risk of older patients?

I THINK but am not sure that it seems to be most effective at mitigation when it was given within a couple decades.  But that's hard to tease out what protective effects are due to age and which are due to BCG vaccination.  It may explain why more kids and teens have had serious illness in the US and Europe than in Asian countries.  

My husband had it in the military, about 15 years ago, as part of deployment preparations.  I'm sending messages to my GP and my children's pediatrician asking if this is available or advisable for us.

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30 minutes ago, regentrude said:

 

10 hours ago, Terabith said:

 

 

I very much hope BCG vaccination ends up helping in the trials in Australia and India.

However, I think what looks promising may only be correlation not causation.  I used to be gung ho about BCG when I was involved with a research project about it long ago.  But really promising looking and exciting, turned out to very disappointingly be apparently only a correlation, not causation, not a useful  prophylactic treatment with what I had been minimally involved with as a research project as a student.  And this situation may be similar. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Pen said:

 

I very much hope BCG vaccination ends up helping in the trials in Australia and India.

However, I think what looks promising may only be correlation not causation.  I used to be gung ho about BCG when I was involved with a research project about it long ago.  But really promising looking and exciting, turned out to very disappointingly be apparently only a correlation, not causation, not a useful  prophylactic treatment with what I had been minimally involved with as a research project as a student.  And this situation may be similar. 

 

 

Yeah, I wouldn't think it would be a miracle treatment or preventative or anything.  I just thought might be a mitigating factor, and since it already exists, has been studied, and has relatively few side effects and is a known actor, if it had the possibility to help and was unlikely to hurt....

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53 minutes ago, regentrude said:

That is interesting. Raises the question about the age of patients in countries that have discontinued the vaccine because the disease is no longer prevalent. In my home country, older people have the vaccine, but it has not been recommended anymore since 1998 and is not available. So, wouldn't that mean older people fare better and younger people are harder hit? Or does it just barely mitigate the higher risk of older patients?

Does the vaccine have long lasting efficacy or does it wane over time like whooping cough etc?

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@Terabith

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2792660/

 

Don’t be too disappointed if your doctor says no to BCG. If it were super effective I would not expect Ecuador to be having such a severe CV19 outbreak. 

.” In Ecuador, a child cannot receive their birth certificate without having the BCG vaccine in their medical record “. Wikipedia 

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5 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Does the vaccine have long lasting efficacy or does it wane over time like whooping cough etc?

 

It wanes.  

Also if you read the article I linked, some studies show (approx)  0% effective against TB and others 80% 

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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Does the vaccine have long lasting efficacy or does it wane over time like whooping cough etc?

It wanes but my TB test still shows mild positive a few years ago and my booster shot was in primary 6. My husband’s TB test no longer shows positive but I forgot if he has the booster shot. DS15 had the BCG jab as a newborn in Asia and his was slightly positive the last time he had a TB test. 

The BCG jab is stated in DS15’s California’s immunization card so the doctors won’t surprised by the mild positive TB test results.

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2 hours ago, TracyP said:

Is anybody able to read this? It is in Italian and behind a paywall, so not happening for me.... It estimates Italy's actual number of covid cases to be 5 million. Or even twice that counting asymptomatic cases.

https://rep.repubblica.it/pwa/locali/2020/04/03/news/milano_la_ricerca_dell_universita_statale_i_contagi_reali_in_italia_potrebbero_essere_5_milioni_-253027121/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I253056306-C12-P3-S5.4-T1

I can’t get behind the paywall but found another article on the same thing and ran it through google translate.  

“Covid, one million Lombards infected "Cases perhaps 100 times more than registered"
by Marta Bravi
Covid, one million Lombards infected "Cases perhaps 100 times more than registered"
April 3, 2020 - 6:00 am
Researchers: "Official data take into account only serious diagnoses"

A million cases in Lombardy, out of ten million inhabitants, this could be the order of magnitude of the epidemic in our region, out of a total of 5 million Italians infected. "The cases of Covid-19 in Lombardy, and in Italy in general, are at least 10, but probably 100 times higher" than those of the official bulletins that "refer mainly to severe patients who came to the attention of hospitals". These are the results of a Doxa investigation coordinated by the group of Carlo La Vecchia and Eva Negri, the epidemiologists of the State University which estimates "the undeclared" of the coronavirus epidemic on the national territory between 27 and 30 March.

According to official data, at the end of March there were 105,792 cases and 12,442 deaths on a national scale, and 43,208 cases and 7,199 deaths at the regional level. The real figures are however uncertain: the cases recorded in Italy essentially include hospital admissions, plus a limited number of positive subjects for swabs performed in a non-systematic way. To estimate the number of possible cases, a series of questions about Covid-19 related symptoms (such as fever, headache, cold, cough, gastrointestinal complaints) were included. The survey is based on a sample of 1,000 individuals, representative of the general Italian population between 18 and 85 years in terms of sex, age, geographical area and socio-economic conditions. Of these, 169 were residents of Lombardy. The data, collected using the CAWI method (computer assisted web interviews), refer to questions asked to citizens regarding their conditions in the three weeks preceding the survey.

It therefore seems that in the last three weeks 18.3 percent of Lombards have reported Covid-19-type symptoms, while 3 percent have experienced fever above 38.5 degrees, significantly higher percentages than the rest of the country. In Italy 14.4 per cent of subjects reported symptoms and 1.5 per cent high fever. The most affected subjects? Women, young people, smokers and people with higher education.

Part of the symptoms described, however, is unrelated to Covid-19. Although the seasonal flu period ended by March 7, some of the reported symptoms could be related to other non-specific (viral) conditions, experts explain. It is possible, however, that most of the symptoms and the majority of fever episodes above 38.5 degrees in March are due to the virus. Even assuming that only half of the reported symptoms are attributable to Covid-19, about 10 percent of the Lombard population and 8 percent of the population in Italy would have been infected in the three weeks prior to data collection. The count in absolute numbers is quickly done, although the figure can be doubled assuming that most of the symptoms similar to those of Covid-19 are actually related to the pathology.

The data therefore indicate that even ignoring the asymptomatic cases, the Covid-19 epidemic affected a portion of the population certainly higher by an order of magnitude, and perhaps even two, than the recorded cases. "We come to estimate that in Italy there may be 5, 10 or even 20 million infected if the asymptomatics were very numerous - explains La Vecchia -. The not encouraging aspect is that in all the estimates made we are still far from achieving natural immunity "and that" it will still take time to arrive at zero cases ".

 

 

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