Jump to content

Menu

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, Farrar said:

As I understand it, the IHME model is not the foundation for determining who gets what from the federal government. I've read several times that no one knows what the actual criteria the administration is using is and some states have gotten everything they ask for while others get very little.

In the WaPo article I linked, a state official said that IHME figures had been explicitly cited by the Feds in rejecting requests for vents and equipment, on the grounds that the IHME model showed they would need far less equipment than the state's own models projected.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 16.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • Ausmumof3

    3244

  • Pen

    2468

  • Arcadia

    1337

  • prairiewindmomma

    305

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

DS got home 3 hours ago!  ❤️❤️

Update-  my youngest is not only short of breath, coughing, dizzy, nausaues, and with headache-  she is also confused.  I called our doctor and talked with him and she is going to be going to the ER.

That's not a blanket right.  If my religion required human sacrifice, I can't practice it.  If my religion required sexual assault, I can't practice it. Freedom of religion isn't a blanket right

Posted Images

2 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

The Louisiana model I was wondering about is completely out of line, though.  I can't see how they could come up with those numbers for that state and completely different numbers for a state that had similar numbers at the time the predictions were made.  Well, I could understand it of Louisiana had better stats and was taking stricter measures than the other state, but the complete reverse is true.  I was comparing Louisiana (LA - referring to state not city here) to my state (MA) because for a while we had kind of similar numbers of cases and were next to each other in the listings, except LA had more than 2x the death rate and seemed to have cases rising faster.  So I was curious what the predictions were going out.  According to the predictions, MA will be dire and LA is all done already.

So, for example, here's MA's stats from 3/31 through today:

image.png.2693bc74082abad65c6e60743329241b.png

and LA's stats:

image.png.1af43bfa281340fe568ecabf72907ed1.png

So, they started out a week ago with a bit less case than we did, now they have a bit more (so, cases going up faster), and the death toll per case is much higher.  As of 4/5, LA had 280 cases per 100K population, and MA 181 cases per 100K.

So, this model took those number and predicted these outcomes:

MA:

image.thumb.png.9591360456120d029497a00628391100.png

LA: 

image.thumb.png.19823fd91a541f9448203d92496fa7c1.png

 

Can someone tell me how the *same* model took those numbers and trends and decided that we'd end up needing 10x more beds and ventilators than Louisiana?  And that LA was already done with the peak and things were already getting better?   To look ahead to 4/6 (only, what 2-3 days in the future from when they made these predictions?)  - it predicts that MA would need 5091 beds (actual 1145) and 440 deaths (actual 260), and LA would need 1128 beds (actual 1809) and 499 deaths (actual 512) - the LA numbers are closer than the MA ones, but the thing is that the model shows them already on a downward slope, so that they'll never run out of ICU beds or ventilators - the LA governor said today that without new shipments they'll run out by Thursday/Friday.  Because it's not over there.  Why is the *same* model giving such rosy numbers for one of the worst affected states, and such scary ones for a state that's had a lower growth rate, faster shut-down, and lower death rate all along?  I'm still very worried that we'll be overwhelmed here.  But the disparities in the models for the two states just make no sense at.all. with the previous trends nor other human factors.

Also, wait, is it really true that Louisiana has, going into this, almost twice as many ICU beds as Massachusetts and also way more hospital beds generally?  Especially since there are 2.3 million more people in MA?  That seems... off... 

I also wonder what the definition of bed is. I saw a comparison recently showing all kinds of countries with much higher bed numbers (Libya for example) but just because there’s a bed physically doesn’t mean there’s adequate staffing or equipment for it.  I’m assuming requirements are tighter in day Aus or the US.

Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, lewelma said:

I completely agree.  I am a mathy person who has worked in the field of population dynamics.  The models are not only no good, they are definitely misleading.  They are confusing to the public and cause people to doubt government decisions to shelter in place.  Numbers sound so strong, mathematicians and modellers have some sort of god-like status.  Like I wrote above, qualitative opinion would be more accurate in this situation than mathematical models. 

The models are all over the place because they are all wrong.  I just heard on the radio a data scientist saying that the data was contaminated but they were doing the best they could.  This is true, but also misleading.  Honestly, they should just come out and say that at this point models are not possible and they will need to rely on the opinions of people who have good hunches.  But I don't think that would sell with the public!

Scomo was very emphatic in the address today that the models aren’t predictions.  They are models using overseas data that may or may not apply to Aus conditions.  They are being used to guide decision making but they don’t predict what the further will look like.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

In the WaPo article I linked, a state official said that IHME figures had been explicitly cited by the Feds in rejecting requests for vents and equipment, on the grounds that the IHME model showed they would need far less equipment than the state's own models projected.

I saw that, but WaPo and NYT and other sources have had multiple articles over the last week or two saying that the method for specifically determining distribution is unclear to the states. I'm thinking that the IHME model is only part of the method.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Farrar said:

I saw that, but WaPo and NYT and other sources have had multiple articles over the last week or two saying that the method for specifically determining distribution is unclear to the states. I'm thinking that the IHME model is only part of the method.

Well the quoted official only agreed to speak on condition of anonymity, out of fear that the Feds would retaliate by withholding even more equipment and ventilators, so I'm guessing the other part of the "method" is political rather than mathematical....

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Bno: Over the past 24 hours, the U.S. reported 31,067 new cases of coronavirus and 1,319 new deaths, raising total to 366,848 cases and 10,915 dead

Edited by Ausmumof3
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Acadie said:

Sigh. There was very little milk at Whole Foods today. More at Heinen's, our regular local grocery store.

Painful to hear of such a great disjoint between supply and storefront demand. WI is not so far from me in Ohio. 

It's happening in PA too. Probably in most regions with a large dairy presence. Some of the same people also make maple syrup. Syrup can be stored a lot longer, so it's not being dumped, but maple producers can't get wholesalers to take their product. The maple business keeps a lot of farmers afloat because milk prices were already insanely low (what they pay to farmers anyway). It's getting ugly fast.

  • Sad 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Infections are continuing to slow in Israel.  8904 cases, 57 deaths.  The number of severe cases is also leveling off., although deaths are going up.

It has become clear that the Purim holiday on March 10-11 was a major accelerator of the virus's spread, even though there were already some restrictions in place -- closed borders, no large gatherings, public events cancelled, etc.  (The holiday accelerated spread in diaspora Jewish communities as well.) The government is absolutely hell-bent that we not lose the gains we have made over Passover, which begins tomorrow (Wed) night. We are already under a strict lockdown enforced by police, but starting today all remaining intercity (and in Jerusalem, some inter-neighborhood) travel is totally shut down and on Wednesday night itself there will be a curfew.  

Celebrating the first night of Passover with family and friends to remember the Exodus from Egypt is the most widely observed custom across the Jewish world and this all feels very sad and strange, but also meaningful.  Freedom is so fragile.

 

  • Like 11
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Farrar said:

Are you arguing against something I said? I'm genuinely confused. I mean, I understand how stay home orders are supposed to work.

If you're able to say, I'm okay to just wait and not know and ignore the predictions, then that's great for you. But again I'll just say that I don't think discussing the quality or public use of the models is off limits for this thread or anything.

 

No, no, it’s fine of course, and enjoy the discussion of models and predictions.  

I’m not sure if I am arguing with you. I may be arguing with irl people who are cranky and moody and demanding certainty.  When will they be able to ______ ? 

 

I am accepting that a virus isn’t going to care about my wishes.

It isn’t a matter of it being great for me or not.  

I can live with a great deal of uncertainty, in part because I believe that is the nature of this situation.  It is “novel” — we have never seen anything like it and don’t know. I am not expecting any certainty.  And if I accept the likelihood that _____ (desired activity) won’t  be happening _____ (time frame).   I can be pleasantly surprised if it does happen, but not especially frustrated, upset, or particularly disappointed if it does not.  

I’ll be turning in for night soon anyway! 

Cheerio!

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, kbutton said:

It's happening in PA too. Probably in most regions with a large dairy presence. Some of the same people also make maple syrup. Syrup can be stored a lot longer, so it's not being dumped, but maple producers can't get wholesalers to take their product. The maple business keeps a lot of farmers afloat because milk prices were already insanely low (what they pay to farmers anyway). It's getting ugly fast.

 

I wonder what it takes to make it into dry powder milk—that was all sold out here.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Pen said:

 

I wonder what it takes to make it into dry powder milk—that was all sold out here.

My dad was saying in the uk typically most flour is in short supply in grocery stores even though there’s a glut for bakers etc.  they just aren’t set up to package smaller quantities.  I imagine the processing for dry milk powder would be even more complicated.  We did a dairy tour and some or the smaller boutique dairies here are pretty much operating out of shopping containers with tiny cool rooms so it would be hard for them to change.  The larger scale ones might manage.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Often those food stories relate to supply chain and people trying to manage prices.  Avocado farmers were dumping avocados and pleading with people to buy more last week due to the lack of cafe purchases.  Guess what price Avocados are in the supermarket.  $2.80 each.  They are usually $2 each max.  

 

Yes. Price is no doubt a part of my observation, and space.  Rice and beans for 2 weeks is less $ and less space and careful storage demanding than fruits and vegetables . 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Time “3M said Monday it has an agreement with the Trump administration that will allow the company to continue to export N95 protective masks to Canada and Latin America amid the coronavirus pandemic”

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Yes. Price is no doubt a part of my observation, and space.  Rice and beans for 2 weeks is less $ and less space and careful storage demanding than fruits and vegetables . 

Prices have risen like crazy here.  Some of it may be due to disrupted picking and transport chains but I can’t afford $9/kg for broccoli.  I’m so glad we put seedlings in a couple of weeks ago and dd is picking lettuce so we’re still getting greens.  Frozen Veg is slightly cheaper but my crew will only eat it if it’s hidden in curry or something.  I hope it stabilised soon.

Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

My dad was saying in the uk typically most flour is in short supply in grocery stores even though there’s a glut for bakers etc.  they just aren’t set up to package smaller quantities.  I imagine the processing for dry milk powder would be even more complicated.  We did a dairy tour and some or the smaller boutique dairies here are pretty much operating out of shopping containers with tiny cool rooms so it would be hard for them to change.  The larger scale ones might manage.

 

The dairy near us has refrigerated milk tanker like trucks (is it a truck a lorry or something else in Australia?) — (not same shape as what they use to store the excess corpses) arrive and suck in the milk and then takes the milk to be processed.    When I asked the owners what their particular milk is used for (thinking milk or cheese or whatever), he said whatever is being produced at that time.  So it might be cheese, or milk or half and half or ice cream, but it sounded like milk incoming from a number of farms all got used for whatever was being made at that time.  Then the production line would shift and all the milk would be used for a new thing.   It actually had also a main place it went, and another production facility if there were a surplus for the first one. 

 

Edited by Pen
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Arcadia said:

 

Regional governor Luca Zaia said the aim would ultimately be to allow authorities to issue "licences" for individuals with proven immunity to the virus to return to work.”

 

I keep reading this idea in various articles, proposals, etc.  and feeling like I am missing something.  If you can only work (and earn) if you can show that you've had and recovered from the virus, wouldn't lots of people run out and try to get infected as soon as possible?

Antibody testing seems vital from an epidemiological standpoint, and surely it would be lifesaving for medical professionals to know their own risk level, but a general system that makes it very valuable to have already contracted this virus seems totally nuts to me.

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Pen said:

 

The dairy near us has refrigerated milk tanker like trucks (is it a truck a lorry or something else in Australia?) — (not same shape as what they use to store the excess corpses) arrive and suck in the milk and then takes the milk to be processed.    When I asked the owners what their particular milk is used for (thinking milk or cheese or whatever), he said whatever is being produced at that time.  So it might be cheese, or milk or half and half or ice cream, but it sounded like milk incoming from a number of farms all got used for whatever was being made at that time.  Then the production line would shift and all the milk would be used for a new thing.   It actually had also a main place it went, and another production facility if there were a surplus for the first one. 

 

very similar here. Where I live most of the river flat  farmland is dairy. every day massive tankers come and collect the milk from the farms. depending on who the farmer has a contract with is what the  milk turns into. Some have contracts with Bega Cheese - it all gets turned into cheese, others have other contracts and it gets turned into milk and milk products , like cream, butter, powered milk, baby formula, ice cream, UHT milk etc

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Farrar said:

I guess that was sort of my point though. But when I said a few pages ago that I didn't think the models made any real sense anymore, especially on these websites that claim to predict the peak in a huge array of places, I was chastised and told the models are good, the data is not but it is some places. Okay. Whatever. I guess I'm saying it wrong. But from a total non-science, non-mathy lay perspective, the information is all over the place at this point and giving these specific dates like gospel seems deeply misleading.

I think it would make a lot more sense to report it a bit more like when the hurricane is way out in the Atlantic. Of course, we have a lot more control over the spread of the virus than we do over the hurricane's path, but at least they've gotten reasonably adept at talking about the uncertainty of a hurricane's path and the predictions and models involved in trying to know.

I have also found much of the information misleading and provoking panic. Building these models is indeed difficult.  Mathematically you have many of the complications you have when you attempt to predict a hurricane's landfall, but you have the additional complication of the impact of human behavior.  If people react to the predicted path of a hurricane, it does not change the path of the hurricane; if people react to the predicted path of a virus (will that be crowding into grocery stores to stock up?  Crowding in airports to get home?  staying at home?) it will change the trajectory.  

If you use the hurricane analogy, it is like they were saying "This hurricane is going to hit New Orleans in three days!  Evacuate!" when the cone of uncertainty was from the south Texas coast to the Florida coast (and they weren't making that clear).  Even though the actual coordinates for several days showed the hurricane on a much different course than the model's track, the officials stuck with the same story for several days.  Finally, the story abruptly changed to, "No, the hurricane is going to hit the Eastern Seaboard"--an area that was not even in their original cone of uncertainty.   

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, JennyD said:

 

I keep reading this idea in various articles, proposals, etc.  and feeling like I am missing something.  If you can only work (and earn) if you can show that you've had and recovered from the virus, wouldn't lots of people run out and try to get infected as soon as possible?

Antibody testing seems vital from an epidemiological standpoint, and surely it would be lifesaving for medical professionals to know their own risk level, but a general system that makes it very valuable to have already contracted this virus seems totally nuts to me.

 

I agree.  Especially lots of young people who consider themselves at low risk of having anything but a mild case would be eager to get the virus.  Without a vaccine, many young people are seeing it as simply a matter of time before they have the virus.  "Flattening the curve" has more to do with spreading the number of people who have the virus out over a longer period of time, rather than reducing the total number of people who have the virus (Unless we flatten and come up with a vaccine in the meantime).  Many young people would rather have it, get it over with, and return to their daily life--somewhat like the strategy of trying to get all of your kids to have chicken pox at the same time when they are young and move on like many of our grandparents practiced. 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, lovelearnandlive said:

Also, if we are going to base decisions on modeling, shouldn’t we be doing what we do when trying to predict hurricane landfalls - tracking multiple models, seeing where the consensus is, and perhaps downgrading the outliers? All of the models could still end up being off but wouldn’t that be better than relying on a single model?

My understanding, from the best info I can find, is that's kind of how NC is doing their modeling. Of course the issue is the "relies on best-available information" part. The research models are generated independently by Duke, UNC and NoviSci and then they develop a composite of the three models for the official one.

 

Quote

The epidemiologists and data scientists from Blue Cross and Blue Shield of NC, Duke University, data science start-up NoviSci, RTI International and the University of North Carolina developed a simple "weather forecasting" modeling approach that relies on best-available information from three independent research models.

They found that maintaining social distancing policies, like those in place now, will give us the best chance of making sure the health care system in North Carolina has sufficient capacity to manage the growing number of cases.

"Like a weather forecast, the composite results don't predict an absolute outcome, but they predict a probability that an outcome will occur," said Duke adjunct professor and NovaSci CEO Dr. Aaron McKethan.

 

Edited by Pawz4me
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, JennyD said:

Infections are continuing to slow in Israel.  8904 cases, 57 deaths.  The number of severe cases is also leveling off., although deaths are going up.

It has become clear that the Purim holiday on March 10-11 was a major accelerator of the virus's spread, even though there were already some restrictions in place -- closed borders, no large gatherings, public events cancelled, etc.  (The holiday accelerated spread in diaspora Jewish communities as well.) The government is absolutely hell-bent that we not lose the gains we have made over Passover, which begins tomorrow (Wed) night. We are already under a strict lockdown enforced by police, but starting today all remaining intercity (and in Jerusalem, some inter-neighborhood) travel is totally shut down and on Wednesday night itself there will be a curfew.  

Celebrating the first night of Passover with family and friends to remember the Exodus from Egypt is the most widely observed custom across the Jewish world and this all feels very sad and strange, but also meaningful.  Freedom is so fragile.

 

I keep thinking of Passover beginning tomorrow, Eastern Holy Week beginning on Sunday, Western Holy Week going on now, and Ramadan beginning on the 23rd.  Those are all such important communal religious holidays that are not the same if you can’t be with other people.

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

This sounds promising. 🙂 This trial led by Mayo Clinic will use plasma from people who have recovered from COVID-19 to treat current covid patients.

https://www.postbulletin.com/life/health/mayo-looks-for-plasma-donors-for-a-hopeful-strategy/article_a3210c90-7853-11ea-88de-1b623be8b15d.html

Joyner said the goal of the plasma therapy is to prevent sick people from ending up in the ICU or to accelerate patients in ICU out of it, thereby relieving pressure on the health care system.

The cooperative effort involves 40 institutions in 20 states, with Mayo leading the project.

"Our main goal over the next weeks is to ramp up delivery of this product across the country," Joyner said in a conference call with regional and state media.

Joyner suggested that the speed involved in putting the trial together was nothing short of remarkable. What usually takes 18 months in terms of setting up the trial has taken 18 days.

Edited by TracyP
  • Like 9
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

 I know at least two people whose GPs wanted testing but were refused because they didn’t mean the international travel criteria.

*cringes in American*

This is how my area got to where we are now.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, square_25 said:

I mean, I guess it's unsurprising when you think about statements like "Where do we put all the bodies?" that people are making, but it's really stark to see represented. 

Yeah, in the convo I had with someone who doesn't get this he basically said sure NY had lots of deaths, but NY has lots of people.  They always have lots of deaths... This really puts it in perspective.

Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, whitehawk said:

*cringes in American*

This is how my area got to where we are now.

Yep.  We only find international cases when we only test for them.  They are changing the definitions now.  They were pretty open about the fact that the lack of testing was due to lack of resources.  Now they have more tests they are supposedly ramping it up.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Farrar said:

I don't disagree with any of that advice per se. I mean, we're not taking walks. We're going to the grocery store once every two weeks. We're literally pacing the backyard, which is the size of the dining room. So it's not like I am not doing "the right things" or advocating otherwise. But I think it's natural to speculate about the dates and the peaks and the models. People in this thread were literally doing that. So I commented. And it would, indeed, be nice to have a sense of our timetable for various things. I think that's pretty relevant, even if, in the end, it turns out to be unknowable. And the gist of my comment was that the models seem like they're all over the place. That's really it.  

 

Are you not allowed to take walks?  That is one of the few things keeping us sane right now.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://amp.detroitnews.com/amp/2955929001?__twitter_impression=true
 

detroit - 2200 health workers either tested positive or at home with symptoms consistent with coronavirus 

This is not at all surprising. Having healthcare workers without appropriate PPE is like sending a soldier into a firefight without a bullet-proof vest.

  • Sad 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Not the person you're asking, but we're not taking walks :-/. But then we're in NYC, and it is just too dense. 

Same. We're in central DC and there are always some people on the street. It's not so bad as NYC for sure, but there's no way to take a walk and not pass dozens of people.

I took a "walk" up and down the alley with dh the other day. We went to the bottom and back like ten times. We had to pass people three times, but the alley was wide enough to distance. We're lucky that we have a yard. We've been spending an inordinate amount of time in it. But it's also the size of our dining room, for context. Maybe a smidge bigger.

Link to post
Share on other sites

In our area of PA, there’s an article about a man recovering from COVID (positive test.) His wife is showing mild symptoms, but he’s saying they will only test 1 person per family.  I get that from a supply aspect, but it sure does have to screw with numbers.

  • Like 3
  • Sad 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Melissa in Australia said:

very similar here. Where I live most of the river flat  farmland is dairy. every day massive tankers come and collect the milk from the farms. depending on who the farmer has a contract with is what the  milk turns into. Some have contracts with Bega Cheese - it all gets turned into cheese, others have other contracts and it gets turned into milk and milk products , like cream, butter, powered milk, baby formula, ice cream, UHT milk etc

 

The nearby dairy’s milk goes first to a company called Organic Valley (whose meat side, Organic Prairie, also works with Australian farmers and maybe NZ too), and OV itself produces dairy products in many forms including powdered, and maybe shelf stable; cheeses; etc, but if OV is full up, then a smaller more local company that makes ice cream and yoghurt takes the rest. A ways away in an area with lots of dairy production many seem to be producing for Tillamook cheese and creamery—I guess like your area dairies with Bega cheese contracts.  But I think both Organic Valley and Tillamook are cooperatives with farmer-owners or some other arrangements that aren’t just a buy - sell contact. (And maybe in tough times being part of a cooperative will make a difference.  Organic Valley is a relatively new company, but Tillamook is over 100 years old and weathered wars, Great Depression and the 1918 Influenza.) 

I like having the big organic dairy with its cows munching away nearby, and hope it doesn’t start having major troubles or needing to dump milk.  I wish I could buy raw milk direct from them if they were not able to get it to processing and markets. 

 

 

 

Edited by Pen
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Amira said:

Those are all such important communal religious holidays that are not the same if you can’t be with other people.

We are going to do a Skype seder with my son who lives on the other coast.  He hasn't been here for Passover in ages--so I guess the virus has done one good thing, which is to give us the idea that we can be with him anyway.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mom2mthj said:

Are you not allowed to take walks?  That is one of the few things keeping us sane right now.

Might depend on where one lives. Urban, probably not a good idea. Suburban could be fine, depending on space and volume. Rural, enjoy your space! We know several families who purposely chose to endure this experience in their vacation homes, far away from people. 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, square_25 said:

 

That’s a great visual— hope they’ll extend it and wish I could slow it down a little.

 

Plus adding on:

An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]

  • Like 1
  • Sad 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

The nearby dairy’s milk goes first to a company called Organic Valley (whose meat side, Organic Prairie, also works with Australian farmers and maybe NZ too), and OV itself produces dairy products in many forms including powdered, and maybe shelf stable; cheeses; etc, but if OV is full up, then a smaller more local company that makes ice cream and yoghurt takes the rest. A ways away in an area with lots of dairy production many seem to be producing for Tillamook cheese and creamery—I guess like your area dairies with Bega cheese contracts.  But I think both Organic Valley and Tillamook are cooperatives with farmer-owners or some other arrangements that aren’t just a buy - sell contact. (And maybe in tough times being part of a cooperative will make a difference.  Organic Valley is a relatively new company, but Tillamook is over 100 years old and weathered wars, Great Depression and the 1918 Influenza.) 

I like having the big organic dairy with its cows munching away nearby, and hope it doesn’t start having major troubles or needing to dump milk.  I wish I could buy raw milk direct from them if they were not able to get it to processing and markets. 

 

 

 

I buy OV butter. So good! 

We do get raw milk and some grass-fed, flash pasturized cream locally, weekly. We buy butter from local dairies at the farmers' markets sometimes. 

Very thankful for high quality food and for the ability to support local farms. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, square_25 said:

Oh, goodness. I saw that, but I didn't notice that most of those weren't even counted. 

 

When I saw the visual you linked I was thinking “plus an estimated at Home uncounted number  — itself with higher deaths  per day than the former top cause of death.”

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, whitehawk said:

*cringes in American*

This is how my area got to where we are now.

My American city/metro area is still following that criteria too. We are doomed if people won't stay home until testing expands.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

In our area of PA, there’s an article about a man recovering from COVID (positive test.) His wife is showing mild symptoms, but he’s saying they will only test 1 person per family.  I get that from a supply aspect, but it sure does have to screw with numbers.

In my area if one person in a family is tested positive we tell the other family members to just assume they have it and act accordingly but that is why our numbers are relatively low too.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Pen said:

 

I wonder what it takes to make it into dry powder milk—that was all sold out here.

Nestle is a big manufacturer of powdered milk for all ages. Such a supply chain mismatch, powdered milk companies like Nestle could have bought up the surplus. 

https://www.usaemergencysupply.com/information-center/all-about/all-about-dehydrated-dairy/how-is-powdered-milk-made (long article)
“An Interview With Mark Silvas, the National Sales and Marketing Manager for the Humboldt Creamery where we get our powdered milk.

The process of making powdered milk is an interesting operation. Milk comes from dairy farms scattered across the countryside. Each morning, large tank trucks stop at each dairy farm and collect the milk that has accumulated over the past day. Then it is transported to the creamery.

Once it gets here to the creamery, it's run through a filter and put into a holding tank. As it waits it's turn to go through the first stage of processing, it's run through a battery of tests to insure it meets quality standards.

Milk first passes into the evaporator where about a third of it's water is removed. The evaporator consists of 3 colandrais, together being about 4 feet in diameter and 6 stories tall. The evaporator has a partial vacuum put on it, lowering the boiling point to about 135 degrees F. This is important for two reasons. First, it makes it possible for the water in the milk to be evaporated at a low enough temperature that it won't damage the milk. And second, it reduces the cost a substantial amount. Fresh, raw milk contains about 12% solids if you include the butterfat. During the evaporation process, water in the milk is removed until the solids increase to 50%.”

 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I have moved a lot in my life and several schools, organizations, churches,  I have been involved with in different places have me on email lists—I have been somewhat surprised by the different approaches, attitudes, time frames, I see in different ones.  

Mostly when I read something that pertains for East Coast and ideas expressed that it is going to be up and running ASAP I just sort of roll my eyes and shrug and shake my head. 

But I think now that there are some strong differences in USA regional attitudes toward CV19. 

And I wonder if some people on this thread for example, ————, and some others who feel they need to know the peak so they can make plans etc, could be partly expressing predominant regional attitudes differences. 

For example: My NYC high school alma mater seemed to be wondering whether in person high school graduation will be on time or have to be postponed at the same time as  my son’s rural Oregon school seemed to have accepted that there isn’t going to be an in person graduation this year. 

And I also wonder if some lack of proactive shut down decision also fuels stress as it is not known what will happen for upcoming events. Not that it is a big deal compared to more weighty issues, but will there be a _____ (graduation, summer camp, track and field finals.... on and on) or won’t there be is harder to deal with than being fairly certain that, no, there won’t be.   I see this a little also from big city California mailings, but nowhere near to the same extent as from East Coast mailings. 

The predominant attitude difference seems to be “we want to let you know that we are hoping to be up and running as usual soon” versus “we want to reach out and make contact during this difficult time.”

I realize that it is much harder (more cramped, no easy outdoors) for people to be stuck at home in NYC than in rural Oregon. Nonetheless it seems like the push to return to business as usual I see  in NYC emailings is jarring compared to the news images of refrigerator trucks for dead.  NYC goes something like, extremely exaggerated, “for our families and staff with Covid-19 we express wishes for speedy recovery and hope we will be able to see you all better at the Spring Gala, which we have postponed once again now to April 21 since schools shut down was extended to April 20.” For rural Oregon, also exaggerated: “we are taking this situation one day at a time, everything in person except for child care for children under 12 with parents in essential services with preference to medical staff families if space is limited, and provision of takeaway meals is closed till further notice.”

Edited by Pen
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

🇯🇵 Tokyo https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/tokyo-hospital-doctors-test-positive-for-covid-19-after-party-12618324

“TOKYO: One of Japan's most prestigious hospitals apologised for an "unforgivable blunder" after 40 trainee doctors attended a drinking party and 18 subsequently tested positive for the coronavirus.

Keio University Hospital said on Monday (Apr 6) that one trainee doctor tested positive for the virus last week, and that tests on another 98 found 17 more were also positive. 

 

The hospital confirmed that 40 trainees had attended the party after work, and 14 of those present had tested positive for the virus.

"What happened was an unforgivable blunder on part of our trainee doctors," hospital director Yuko Kitagawa said in a statement.

"They sorely lacked the self-awareness necessary for being a doctor."“

  • Confused 2
  • Sad 9
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...