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wuhan - coronavirus

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4 hours ago, wilrunner said:

This is part of what I was wondering. But would the patient be aware enough to know, as curious mom mentioned?

No, you aren’t aware because they give you morphine while intubating (sp). At least that is what happened when i passed out from hyperventilating because lungs were filling up with water. Happened many years ago when had congestive heart failure and once I passed out, wasn't aware of anything. 

If they are giving these folks morphine or using the old fashioned plastic ventilators, the ones you compress by hand, when unable to get them on mechanical ventilators quick enough, they should be okay. But yes, it will cause the patient some panic until aid is given.  

Edited by Robin M

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6 hours ago, Pen said:

I would like to see the cases with conclusions starting to head toward a 3% or so death rate. Instead trend has been going toward climbing death rate.  Does anyone else find this disturbing?

current bottom? 20% deaths, 

yesterday : 19% deaths 

and a few days ago it was 17% deaths 

Here in NZ, the numbers are 723 cases, 2 in ICU, 14 more in hospital, and one death.  A good half of the 723 cases are from the past 7 days, so they may still end up in ICU. But it seems that we are testing way way more than most countries, and we are just not seeing any where close to those types of percentages here. Even if you go with only 300 cases from 7 days ago, the math is still quite low for both ICU, hospitalization, and death. These numbers suggest that a LOT of people in the USA and elsewhere in the world have had it, recovered, and never known. 

We increased our testing yesterday, switching from testing only people with symptoms who had ALSO been in contact with positive cases TO testing anyone with symptoms. So we will know in a couple of days more about community spread. Our current positive testing rate is 3%, and that is testing those with symptoms and contacts. The stated government plan is still complete eradication and border control.

 

 

Edited by lewelma
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3 hours ago, vonfirmath said:

 

I'm praying hard for Ecuador. The first sponsored child who mentioned coronavirus in a letter to me (written at the end of January) lives in Guayaquil. I also have a 5 year old in Quito and a few more kids in Ecuador -- I hope the jungles at least are safe but when I saw people fled there I'm really worried.

Oh wow.  That does sounds scary.  Hope they all get through ok.

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Here (my state) we have 385 and 19 hospitalised, 14 icu, 7 critical.  We are testing more widely than many but still not everyone.  Criteria is overseas travel, known contact with a case or severe unidentifiable respiratory symptoms.

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13 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

I think that it is shameful to deny medical help to American citizens because they traveled, if the US government wasn't issuing a travel restriction or banning travel. Especially if the US government was downplaying the severity. You can't tell people it is okay to travel, then when they do say, "sorry, you should have known better, feel free to die now". Our own citizens? On this very board I recall people around that time saying they would still cruise, and had hoped there would be deals offered they could snatch up. 

I mean, yes, it was not smart. But we have a LOT of not smart citizens, lol. We generally still treat them when sick. 

There has been SO much misinformation put out there about this virus, I can't truly blame people for underestimating it 3 weeks ago. Heck, even Dr Fauci said something just recently about how we are getting "an inkling" that this may be spread by asymptomatic people, not just coughs/sneezes. Um, hello? The boardies here have known that for WEEKS but he's just saying, "well, maybe" now? No wonder people made poor decisions, given such wishy washy advice!

I’m a couple of pages behind, so someone else may have already shared similar thoughts, but I don’t want to loose my place, lol. 

There’s no real denying economic motivation for politicians lying and having scientists... let’s say sidestepping certain degrees of details. I don’t believe any of the top scientists involved are personally motivated by the economics, but do get pressured for it.

The other aspect is kind of tied into panic, which we’ve all talked about for weeks. Most of us who saw this what feels like ages ago did wish there were 100% transparency, but also acknowledged that it would have risked crippling panic. In addition to that panic, we still would have had people who did not believe it. Maybe more, considering some thoughts that were shared about the concept and definition of panic!

Instead, what we got was some people preparing in January, more in February, dare I say much more in March, plus a little bit of panic, and then some people who still did not believe it. Despite my desire to have all of the info up front, that was certainly a better outcome than all-out panic, and more important than my individual emotions and stance on hypothetical ethics at the time.  During this time, it looks to me like a lot of (not all) disbelievers have gradually digested reality, which they very well may not have otherwise.  And that means more compliance.  Not perfect, but more.

I do think that there’s been a sort of frog in the pot strategy going on, and that it’s working on the general public. In many (most?) areas, people have slowly been acclimating to concepts we all would have fought against if the switch was flipped all at once in February.  And, I suspect, we’ll continue to if/when more heat gets applied.

The horrible part is that essential services weren’t given the info or tools to handle what was known or suspected, and the systems that were designed to mitigate that issue have failed miserably. My full thoughts on that get too political for this forum, but it needs to be known that the US absolutely has had SOPs in place for this, at the federal, state, county, tribal, and local levels. They exist.  Humans decided to ignore them pre-disaster and throw them away mid-disaster. The citizenship deserves to know that!

Had SOPs been followed and the general public slowly steeped, we still would have lost people, sadly. But it wouldn’t have to be to the extent that we’re about to. There was never any chance of saying *everyone, especially people who chose to believe they were invincible and didn’t have to heed even the simplest of warnings. But more people will die because of gov’t non-compliance than individual ignorance.

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Like doctors and nurses, EMT training (locally, at least) is being modified to get students certified.  My 17yo is resenting my 16yo a bit right now!  Even though the younger will get certified, she’s still unable to be employed until she turns 18 next year.  But the older turns 18 in less than 2 months, and I know she’s going to be raring to go! I’m trying to wait until the end of this month before sitting down and having real conversations about that.

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1 hour ago, lewelma said:

Here in NZ, the numbers are 723 cases, 2 in ICU, 14 more in hospital, and one death.  A good half of the 723 cases are from the past 7 days, so they may still end up in ICU. But it seems that we are testing way way more than most countries, and we are just not seeing any where close to those types of percentages here. Even if you go with only 300 cases from 7 days ago, the math is still quite low for both ICU, hospitalization, and death. These numbers suggest that a LOT of people in the USA and elsewhere in the world have had it, recovered, and never known. 

We increased our testing yesterday, switching from testing only people with symptoms who had ALSO been in contact with positive cases TO testing anyone with symptoms. So we will know in a couple of days more about community spread. Our current positive testing rate is 3%, and that is testing those with symptoms and contacts. The stated government plan is still complete eradication and border control.

 

 

 

Those are good. I feel very hopeful that NZ can eradicate, not just mitigate.

South Korea actually does have the 3% rate I would like to be seeing the global rate headed towards.

I am concerned that the global rate rising has to do with Spain, Italy, France, Philippines etc high numbers of deaths per population. And that at least for some places as much as total cases and thus recoveries are under reported, so too are deaths under reported as people are dying at home. 

I guess my other concern is that CFR projections were based on China data and China data is suspect.

I am hopeful that something like hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin will bring down deaths. 

However, absent a great treatment rapidly getting deployed,  the graphs and playing around with numbers on my own are looking more like maybe a ~ 10-15% CFR .   

Edited by Pen
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12 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

Like doctors and nurses, EMT training (locally, at least) is being modified to get students certified.  My 17yo is resenting my 16yo a bit right now!  Even though the younger will get certified, she’s still unable to be employed until she turns 18 next year.  But the older turns 18 in less than 2 months, and I know she’s going to be raring to go! I’m trying to wait until the end of this month before sitting down and having real conversations about that.

 

That sounds scary as a mom.

Especially as more deaths in teens are emerging. 

ETA: what training gets skipped to speed certification?

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1 minute ago, Pen said:

 

That sounds scary as a mom.

Especially as more deaths in teens are emerging. 

Definitely. Knowing that their risk-gauging isn’t fully developed is the really hard part.
They’ve been going out and doing dangerous emergency service stuff since they were 14, but I’ve always been very confident in their training and their team.  This is so much different to me.

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5 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

I think the rate of dead/diagnoses could be low, because we aren't testing all the asymptomatic people, or high because we aren't testing the dead people, and because it takes time to die.

But I have no doubt that the dead/recovered ratio is high.  Because the number of people who were sick 3 weeks ago, was so much lower, and the recovered number only includes those people.  

Well, I never estimate by doing dead/recovered, anyway... but yes, that’s too high. 

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1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

Those are good. I feel very hopeful that NZ can eradicate, not just mitigate.

South Korea actually does have the 3% rate I would like to be seeing the global rate headed towards.

I am concerned that the global rate rising has to do with Spain, Italy, France, Philippines etc high numbers of deaths per population. And that at least for some places as much as total cases and thus recoveries are under reported, so too are deaths under reported as people are dying at home. 

I guess my other concern is that CFR projections were based on China data and China data is suspect.

I am hopeful that something like hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin will bring down deaths. 

However, absent a great treatment rapidly getting deployed,  the graphs and playing around with numbers on my own are looking more like maybe a ~ 10-15% CFR .   

Where are you getting a number that high?

Personally, I think it’s in the low single digits, but the excess deaths will be much higher...

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3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Where are you getting a number that high?

Personally, I think it’s in the low single digits, but the excess deaths will be much higher...

 

I’m following (mostly) upward trajectory graphs after elimination of China where I don’t believe the statistics:

 

634D7FE4-B582-42DC-89AE-DB1BFEA281C6.jpeg

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3 hours ago, lewelma said:

Here in NZ, the numbers are 723 cases, 2 in ICU, 14 more in hospital, and one death.  A good half of the 723 cases are from the past 7 days, so they may still end up in ICU. But it seems that we are testing way way more than most countries, and we are just not seeing any where close to those types of percentages here. Even if you go with only 300 cases from 7 days ago, the math is still quite low for both ICU, hospitalization, and death. These numbers suggest that a LOT of people in the USA and elsewhere in the world have had it, recovered, and never known. 

We increased our testing yesterday, switching from testing only people with symptoms who had ALSO been in contact with positive cases TO testing anyone with symptoms. So we will know in a couple of days more about community spread. Our current positive testing rate is 3%, and that is testing those with symptoms and contacts. The stated government plan is still complete eradication and border control.

 

 

That’s what the numbers seem to look like early on for lots of countries :-/. None of them have stayed at that low percentage, so I would be surprised if you’re right. I’d guess around a percent is actually about right. Maybe a bit less.

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Just now, Pen said:

 

I’m following (mostly) upward trajectory graphs after elimination of China where I don’t believe the statistics:

 

634D7FE4-B582-42DC-89AE-DB1BFEA281C6.jpeg

South Korea’s numbers aren’t that large, and lots of countries are only testing the sickest people. I really wouldn’t use those estimates.

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1 hour ago, Carrie12345 said:

I’m a couple of pages behind, so someone else may have already shared similar thoughts, but I don’t want to loose my place, lol. 

There’s no real denying economic motivation for politicians lying and having scientists... let’s say sidestepping certain degrees of details. I don’t believe any of the top scientists involved are personally motivated by the economics, but do get pressured for it.

The other aspect is kind of tied into panic, which we’ve all talked about for weeks. Most of us who saw this what feels like ages ago did wish there were 100% transparency, but also acknowledged that it would have risked crippling panic. In addition to that panic, we still would have had people who did not believe it. Maybe more, considering some thoughts that were shared about the concept and definition of panic!

Instead, what we got was some people preparing in January, more in February, dare I say much more in March, plus a little bit of panic, and then some people who still did not believe it. Despite my desire to have all of the info up front, that was certainly a better outcome than all-out panic, and more important than my individual emotions and stance on hypothetical ethics at the time.  During this time, it looks to me like a lot of (not all) disbelievers have gradually digested reality, which they very well may not have otherwise.  And that means more compliance.  Not perfect, but more.

I do think that there’s been a sort of frog in the pot strategy going on, and that it’s working on the general public. In many (most?) areas, people have slowly been acclimating to concepts we all would have fought against if the switch was flipped all at once in February.  And, I suspect, we’ll continue to if/when more heat gets applied.

The horrible part is that essential services weren’t given the info or tools to handle what was known or suspected, and the systems that were designed to mitigate that issue have failed miserably. My full thoughts on that get too political for this forum, but it needs to be known that the US absolutely has had SOPs in place for this, at the federal, state, county, tribal, and local levels. They exist.  Humans decided to ignore them pre-disaster and throw them away mid-disaster. The citizenship deserves to know that!

Had SOPs been followed and the general public slowly steeped, we still would have lost people, sadly. But it wouldn’t have to be to the extent that we’re about to. There was never any chance of saying *everyone, especially people who chose to believe they were invincible and didn’t have to heed even the simplest of warnings. But more people will die because of gov’t non-compliance than individual ignorance.

I think it’s probably much harder to get the right balance for communication now.  In pre social media days the public could probably be not panicked while emergency services figure out and plan stuff.  Now the general public often have info ahead of official sources.  They don’t necessarily want to release wrong information so they take their time and verify but in the meantime everyone now already knows it and they seem behind.

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6 minutes ago, square_25 said:

South Korea’s numbers aren’t that large, and lots of countries are only testing the sickest people. I really wouldn’t use those estimates.

I keep wondering why people think the official CFR will go down.  I mean I think the cfr is probably lower than it looks in say Italy because maybe only the sickest are getting tested.  But presumably although a who had a mild case, didn’t get tested and recovered will never get tested so will never count on the official stats.  The only thing that could maybe change that is serology testing and including people with antibodies in the data.  Or maybe if there’s a continued outbreak and increased testing?  But if the number of new cases is going down, people from previously confirmed cases are still dying it’s just going to keep going up on paper right?

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Lancet on mortality- gives current rate  (few days back) outside China at ~ 15.2%.  Expected to level off to ~ 5.7%

 

05D7F447-2B60-455A-BA54-B4F3E2A3E483.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I keep wondering why people think the official CFR will go down.  I mean I think the cfr is probably lower than it looks in say Italy because maybe only the sickest are getting tested.  But presumably although a who had a mild case, didn’t get tested and recovered will never get tested so will never count on the official stats.  The only thing that could maybe change that is serology testing and including people with antibodies in the data.  Or maybe if there’s a continued outbreak and increased testing?  But if the number of new cases is going down, people from previously confirmed cases are still dying it’s just going to keep going up on paper right?

It will go down if we can test more people, I’d assume. They do seem to be coming up with new tests, so fingers crossed.

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1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

Those are good. I feel very hopeful that NZ can eradicate, not just mitigate.

South Korea actually does have the 3% rate I would like to be seeing the global rate headed towards.

I am concerned that the global rate rising has to do with Spain, Italy, France, Philippines etc high numbers of deaths per population. And that at least for some places as much as total cases and thus recoveries are under reported, so too are deaths under reported as people are dying at home. 

I guess my other concern is that CFR projections were based on China data and China data is suspect.

I am hopeful that something like hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin will bring down deaths. 

However, absent a great treatment rapidly getting deployed,  the graphs and playing around with numbers on my own are looking more like maybe a ~ 10-15% CFR .   

If it gives you any peace of mind, maybe look at the Diamond Princess. They have a CFR of 1.5% right now. Sorry to be horribly morbid, but if every patient in ICU dies, the CFR will rise to 3.6%. That is in a population where 80% of the passengers were over 60. I think that 3-4% is a worst case scenario CFR, but not 10-15%.

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Just now, TracyP said:

If it gives you any peace of mind, maybe look at the Diamond Princess. They have a CFR of 1.5% right now. Sorry to be horribly morbid, but if every patient in ICU dies, the CFR will rise to 3.6%. That is in a population where 80% of the passengers were over 60. I think that 3-4% is a worst case scenario CFR, but not 10-15%.

Yeah, that’s a good example, I think. 

Where are you getting the ICU stats for them?

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Just now, square_25 said:

Yeah, that’s a good example, I think. 

Where are you getting the ICU stats for them?

Worldometer. Let me know if you want link.

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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I keep wondering why people think the official CFR will go down.  I mean I think the cfr is probably lower than it looks in say Italy because maybe only the sickest are getting tested.  But presumably although a who had a mild case, didn’t get tested and recovered will never get tested so will never count on the official stats.  The only thing that could maybe change that is serology testing and including people with antibodies in the data.  Or maybe if there’s a continued outbreak and increased testing?  But if the number of new cases is going down, people from previously confirmed cases are still dying it’s just going to keep going up on paper right?

 

When new cases go down / stop: Some of previous confirmed cases will be dying, but others will be gradually recovering. 

Plus possibly more treatments and better PPE protection gear will mean fewer high exposure personnel with massive viral loads. 

But I think the idea of leveling off towards 5.7% as in the Lancet I put screen shot of above seems more realistic than people who think it is going down to 1 point something.

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1 hour ago, Carrie12345 said:

Definitely. Knowing that their risk-gauging isn’t fully developed is the really hard part.
They’ve been going out and doing dangerous emergency service stuff since they were 14, but I’ve always been very confident in their training and their team.  This is so much different to me.

 

1 hour ago, StellaM said:

 

Needing to have that convo too - with my young nurse, now that thousands of free ICU nurse training places have opened up here. There will be heavy recruitment. 

I think PTSD is a real risk for young people in health care professions atm. I mean, for everyone, but young people particularly.

Paramedics here are against a proposal to allow students to work in the field, for the above reasons and others. 

Good luck having the conversation.

 

 

FWIW, here in my county currently no EMTs are allowed to respond to calls for suspected Covid 19. Only paramedics. That may change as we get more cases, of course. My brother is a volunteer EMT and fireman with close to 30 years' experience, has all sorts of hazmat certifications and is a certified FEMA building inspector (he's an engineer by profession). I post that just to let you know his level of experience and expertise with emergency response. And he believes the prohibition on EMTs responding is good.

Edited by Pawz4me
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6 minutes ago, TracyP said:

If it gives you any peace of mind, maybe look at the Diamond Princess. They have a CFR of 1.5% right now. Sorry to be horribly morbid, but if every patient in ICU dies, the CFR will rise to 3.6%. That is in a population where 80% of the passengers were over 60. I think that 3-4% is a worst case scenario CFR, but not 10-15%.

 

However, Many Diamond Princess passengers, and crew, along with some that turned out to be CV19 cases got transferred to country of origin and their deaths and recoveries  (not in Japan)  stopped being attributed to DP iirc?  So the DP statistics stopped being all that useful. 

Japan, South Korea, Singapore have had excellent low death rates. 

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1 minute ago, Pen said:

 

However, Many Diamond Princess passengers, and crew, along with some that turned out to be CV19 cases got transferred to country of origin and their deaths and recoveries  (not in Japan)  stopped being attributed to DP iirc?  So the DP statistics stopped being all that useful. 

Japan, South Korea, Singapore have had excellent low death rates. 

Yes, they've been transferred I believe. But I think worldometer is still tracking them. For example they added the passenger in Australia who died the other day. 

Yes, I was just going to come post about those countries. I don't think any of their numbers are in question, are they?

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3 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

However, Many Diamond Princess passengers, and crew, along with some that turned out to be CV19 cases got transferred to country of origin and their deaths and recoveries  (not in Japan)  stopped being attributed to DP iirc?  So the DP statistics stopped being all that useful. 

Japan, South Korea, Singapore have had excellent low death rates. 

I think you can still find the data on them, though? When I looked last, there were 11 deaths. But I’m not sure.

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4 minutes ago, TracyP said:

Yes, they've been transferred I believe. But I think worldometer is still tracking them. For example they added the passenger in Australia who died the other day. 

Yes, I was just going to come post about those countries. I don't think any of their numbers are in question, are they?

 

I think all 3 of Japan, South Korea, Singapore are about as accurate and positive outcome as we get!   New Zealand, I’m guessing, will probably fare even better. 

Situation Not getting seriously out of control in them and good testing and high level government control probably allowed quite reliable figures and also excellent medical outcomes with medical systems not overwhelmed. Also some “luck “ where people did do some risky things,  like that the mega church in SK was one with relatively younger worshippers, rather than a huge outbreak in a mega size nursing home. 

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Just now, Pen said:

 

I think all 3 of Japan, South Korea, Singapore are about as accurate and positive outcome as we get!   New Zealand, I’m guessing, will probably fare even better. 

Situation Not getting seriously out of control in them and good testing and high level government control probably allowed quite reliable figures and also excellent medical outcomes with medical systems not overwhelmed. Also some “luck “ where people did do some risky things,  like that the mega church in SK was one with relatively younger worshippers, rather than a huge outbreak in a mega size nursing home. 

I think our actual CFR won't be that much bigger; the problem will be all the excess deaths :-/. I do think all the countries only testing those who are about to go in the hospital have extremely biased data, so it's not even that useful to calculate using it. 

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40 minutes ago, TracyP said:

If it gives you any peace of mind, maybe look at the Diamond Princess. They have a CFR of 1.5% right now. Sorry to be horribly morbid, but if every patient in ICU dies, the CFR will rise to 3.6%. That is in a population where 80% of the passengers were over 60. I think that 3-4% is a worst case scenario CFR, but not 10-15%.

Stats don’t include people who were infected then died in their own country I don’t think.  One in Australia.  I’m not sure if there were others

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24 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Stats don’t include people who were infected then died in their own country I don’t think.  One in Australia.  I’m not sure if there were others

 

That’s also my impression, but I’m not positive.  Maybe they switched them back to DP statistics as one of the later corrections they do.

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11 hours ago, bolt. said:

I think Florida really needs to think about how they will deal with offshore cruise ships if things get really bad. Like, what do you do with a ship that will (eventually) contain no one well: only dead and dying people? What do you do with a hulk in your harbour? At some point will you remove the survivors? Or will you remove the corpses instead? Neither?

And what makes them think people will passively stay on the ships? I don't think they are accounting for people's survival instincts. Won't they commandeer the lifeboats and try to come ashore? Won't people swim for it? Who just keeps floating there, isolating compliantly in their cabins, while a virus drops their ship-mates like flies and no one brings them meals any more? At some point, won't the crew begin to consider if they might save some lives by sinking the ship and seeking rescue?

You really can't just leave people with no solution. That's the stuff of nightmares.

They need to let the Americans off in Florida, and let other nationalities trickle out depending on when repatriation flights can be made available. They can even sail up the coast to take the Canadians to Canada. I can't see the humanity in just saying, "Nope not here. Our hospitals are only for certain folks. Better luck next time." -- to a ship load of desperate people in danger of their very lives.

Yup. It will only get worse. 

10 hours ago, Arcadia said:

@square_25the officials involved are still waiting on Holland America. I think they don’t want to be played out. They want a legal binding plan.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-ships-infected-port-everglades-20200401-mf4komanench5m7lwp34oeajly-story.html
“A memo outlined by the cruise line had called for sending guests home on commercial flights and charter flights, and Floridians driven to their houses. But the county is still waiting for an official plan that would be binding, including details about who would pay for what, an outline of the medical plan, and talks about security.

Zaandam and Rotterdam combined have 1,250 guests on board, including 311 Americans from 19 states; 52 of those are from Florida. Nine are from South Florida.”

This infuriates me. Worry about who will pay for it later. Letting people possibly die over money is dumb. 

8 hours ago, square_25 said:

Another article, this time from Spain, showing that excess mortality is way higher than is captured in the official COVID numbers:

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-27/el-coronavirus-causa-mas-muertes-de-las-detectadas.html

It's in Spanish, which I don't read, so I did Google translate. 

And some discussion in English: 

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/hidden-mortality-in-spain

 

A highschool friend is in Spain. His reports are terrifying. 

7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-38808-z
 

apparently the louder you speak the more droplets you put out so might explain it the high rate of spread in the choir

And this is why I wouldn't let my kids play four square with the neighbors, who all thought it was a brilliant plan to stay at a distance. Except it isn't. And they'd be touching the ball. And when breathing hard playing would be MORE likely to spew droplets. 

In other news, can I send some positive operatic singers to serenade Trump?

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Just now, Ktgrok said:

A highschool friend is in Spain. His reports are terrifying. 

What's he saying? 😞

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1 minute ago, square_25 said:

 

No surprises, of course. But very stark. 

Actually, that it had risen was not a surprise, but economists were anticipating the rise to be only about 1/2 of what it was; so the magnitude of the rise is a shock.

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Can someone check my understanding?

6.6 million new US unemployment claims this past week. 3.3 million the previous week. So about 10 million in the past two weeks, right? Not 3.3 + 3.3.

I just want to make sure I’m processing the language correctly, because I haven’t yet seen anyone SAY ten million straight up.

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2 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

Actually, that it had risen was not a surprise, but economists were anticipating the rise to be only about 1/2 of what it was; so the magnitude of the rise is a shock.

Yeah, we're in uncharted waters. I'm not surprised they were off :-/. 

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1 hour ago, TracyP said:

Yes, they've been transferred I believe. But I think worldometer is still tracking them. For example they added the passenger in Australia who died the other day. 

Yes, I was just going to come post about those countries. I don't think any of their numbers are in question, are they?

There data is the same as Bno and they don’t include the Aus death

there are some questions about the other countries.  South Korea is using a different test to us and Aus that may possibly have a higher false positive rate.  Japan is increasing testing I believe.

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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

There data is the same as Bno and they don’t include the Aus death

there are some questions about the other countries.  South Korea is using a different test to us and Aus that may possibly have a higher false positive rate.  Japan is increasing testing I believe.

Yeah, they are updating it slowly, but they are updating. I think it's now up to 12 deaths :-/. 

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We weren't the only ones sounding the alarm in January--a US Senator tried to sound the alarm this was coming, but no one was ready to listen to him. https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/the-senator-who-saw-the-coronavirus-coming/

Coronavirus spreads through the air (this info is already known to most of us but I heard a county health official hem & haw on this one two days ago). https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/aerosol-coronavirus-spread-white-house-letter/index.html

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5 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

We weren't the only ones sounding the alarm in January--a US Senator tried to sound the alarm this was coming, but no one was ready to listen to him. https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/the-senator-who-saw-the-coronavirus-coming/

Coronavirus spreads through the air (this info is already known to most of us but I heard a county health official hem & haw on this one two days ago). https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/aerosol-coronavirus-spread-white-house-letter/index.html

 

There were tons of people sounding the alarm at the time. And I'm sorry, but firing the pandemic team and lots of heads of the national health apparatus made for an uncoordinated response. It's not just "the bureaucracy." The bureaucracy didn't behave like this in other pandemics. We didn't even bother to stock up on supplies. And closing travel with China (but only for foreign nationals, and only from some regions, right??) bought us very little. 

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26 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

Can someone check my understanding?

6.6 million new US unemployment claims this past week. 3.3 million the previous week. So about 10 million in the past two weeks, right? Not 3.3 + 3.3.

I just want to make sure I’m processing the language correctly, because I haven’t yet seen anyone SAY ten million straight up.

Yes, these are NEW claims being reported each week--so about 10 million new people in the past two weeks, with last week about twice as bad as the previous week.   

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36 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

A highschool friend is in Spain. His reports are terrifying. 

 

If he is like us, a Permanent Resident (legal alien) he will probably "Shelter in Place" in his home in  Spain.

However, if he is there temporarily, I would urge him to leave Spain. There is a possibility the U.S. Embassy there is arranging "humanitarian" flights to take U.S. Citizens to an airport in the USA.  He can find that information on the web site of the ACS (American Citizens Services) on the U.S. Embassy web site.

Here in Colombia, my belief from what I read is that the vast majority of the COVID-19 cases in Colombia are because of people who traveled here from Europe. Especially from Spain. Italy and Spain are very bad places to be at this time, with regard to COVID-19 and medical care.  (I am aware of the issues in and around NYC and in other areas of the USA which are also hot spots).

Here in Colombia, our airports are closed, to International flights and to the majority of domestic flights, to reduce the risk of people coming here with COVID-19.

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Based on # cases & trends, it looks like Spain's cumulative positives will overtake Italy's in the next couple of days. Italy's confirmed positive numbers have been trending down. Their daily death numbers are trending down, too, but I assume those might take longer to decrease due to the lag in deaths from serious cases taking time to resolve.

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9 hours ago, kdsuomi said:

I've never heard an American say just jigsaw when referring to a puzzle. It's usually puzzle and sometimes jigsaw puzzle, but maybe it's regional?

I too pictured a large tool when I saw "jigsaw."  I did eventually figure it out from the context.  😛

We had to use a jigsaw in shop class in 8th grade, so maybe that is why I thought of the tool first.

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