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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Often those food stories relate to supply chain and people trying to manage prices.  Avocado farmers were dumping avocados and pleading with people to buy more last week due to the lack of cafe purchases.  Guess what price Avocados are in the supermarket.  $2.80 each.  They are usually $2 each max.  

 

Yes. Price is no doubt a part of my observation, and space.  Rice and beans for 2 weeks is less $ and less space and careful storage demanding than fruits and vegetables . 

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DS got home 3 hours ago!  ❤️❤️

Update-  my youngest is not only short of breath, coughing, dizzy, nausaues, and with headache-  she is also confused.  I called our doctor and talked with him and she is going to be going to the ER.

Thought I'd post a pic of my dd, getting ready to spend another day in a coronavirus triage tent!  

3 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Yes. Price is no doubt a part of my observation, and space.  Rice and beans for 2 weeks is less $ and less space and careful storage demanding than fruits and vegetables . 

Prices have risen like crazy here.  Some of it may be due to disrupted picking and transport chains but I can’t afford $9/kg for broccoli.  I’m so glad we put seedlings in a couple of weeks ago and dd is picking lettuce so we’re still getting greens.  Frozen Veg is slightly cheaper but my crew will only eat it if it’s hidden in curry or something.  I hope it stabilised soon.

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24 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

My dad was saying in the uk typically most flour is in short supply in grocery stores even though there’s a glut for bakers etc.  they just aren’t set up to package smaller quantities.  I imagine the processing for dry milk powder would be even more complicated.  We did a dairy tour and some or the smaller boutique dairies here are pretty much operating out of shopping containers with tiny cool rooms so it would be hard for them to change.  The larger scale ones might manage.

 

The dairy near us has refrigerated milk tanker like trucks (is it a truck a lorry or something else in Australia?) — (not same shape as what they use to store the excess corpses) arrive and suck in the milk and then takes the milk to be processed.    When I asked the owners what their particular milk is used for (thinking milk or cheese or whatever), he said whatever is being produced at that time.  So it might be cheese, or milk or half and half or ice cream, but it sounded like milk incoming from a number of farms all got used for whatever was being made at that time.  Then the production line would shift and all the milk would be used for a new thing.   It actually had also a main place it went, and another production facility if there were a surplus for the first one. 

 

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6 hours ago, Arcadia said:

 

Regional governor Luca Zaia said the aim would ultimately be to allow authorities to issue "licences" for individuals with proven immunity to the virus to return to work.”

 

I keep reading this idea in various articles, proposals, etc.  and feeling like I am missing something.  If you can only work (and earn) if you can show that you've had and recovered from the virus, wouldn't lots of people run out and try to get infected as soon as possible?

Antibody testing seems vital from an epidemiological standpoint, and surely it would be lifesaving for medical professionals to know their own risk level, but a general system that makes it very valuable to have already contracted this virus seems totally nuts to me.

 

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2 hours ago, Pen said:

 

The dairy near us has refrigerated milk tanker like trucks (is it a truck a lorry or something else in Australia?) — (not same shape as what they use to store the excess corpses) arrive and suck in the milk and then takes the milk to be processed.    When I asked the owners what their particular milk is used for (thinking milk or cheese or whatever), he said whatever is being produced at that time.  So it might be cheese, or milk or half and half or ice cream, but it sounded like milk incoming from a number of farms all got used for whatever was being made at that time.  Then the production line would shift and all the milk would be used for a new thing.   It actually had also a main place it went, and another production facility if there were a surplus for the first one. 

 

very similar here. Where I live most of the river flat  farmland is dairy. every day massive tankers come and collect the milk from the farms. depending on who the farmer has a contract with is what the  milk turns into. Some have contracts with Bega Cheese - it all gets turned into cheese, others have other contracts and it gets turned into milk and milk products , like cream, butter, powered milk, baby formula, ice cream, UHT milk etc

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5 hours ago, Farrar said:

I guess that was sort of my point though. But when I said a few pages ago that I didn't think the models made any real sense anymore, especially on these websites that claim to predict the peak in a huge array of places, I was chastised and told the models are good, the data is not but it is some places. Okay. Whatever. I guess I'm saying it wrong. But from a total non-science, non-mathy lay perspective, the information is all over the place at this point and giving these specific dates like gospel seems deeply misleading.

I think it would make a lot more sense to report it a bit more like when the hurricane is way out in the Atlantic. Of course, we have a lot more control over the spread of the virus than we do over the hurricane's path, but at least they've gotten reasonably adept at talking about the uncertainty of a hurricane's path and the predictions and models involved in trying to know.

I have also found much of the information misleading and provoking panic. Building these models is indeed difficult.  Mathematically you have many of the complications you have when you attempt to predict a hurricane's landfall, but you have the additional complication of the impact of human behavior.  If people react to the predicted path of a hurricane, it does not change the path of the hurricane; if people react to the predicted path of a virus (will that be crowding into grocery stores to stock up?  Crowding in airports to get home?  staying at home?) it will change the trajectory.  

If you use the hurricane analogy, it is like they were saying "This hurricane is going to hit New Orleans in three days!  Evacuate!" when the cone of uncertainty was from the south Texas coast to the Florida coast (and they weren't making that clear).  Even though the actual coordinates for several days showed the hurricane on a much different course than the model's track, the officials stuck with the same story for several days.  Finally, the story abruptly changed to, "No, the hurricane is going to hit the Eastern Seaboard"--an area that was not even in their original cone of uncertainty.   

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1 hour ago, JennyD said:

 

I keep reading this idea in various articles, proposals, etc.  and feeling like I am missing something.  If you can only work (and earn) if you can show that you've had and recovered from the virus, wouldn't lots of people run out and try to get infected as soon as possible?

Antibody testing seems vital from an epidemiological standpoint, and surely it would be lifesaving for medical professionals to know their own risk level, but a general system that makes it very valuable to have already contracted this virus seems totally nuts to me.

 

I agree.  Especially lots of young people who consider themselves at low risk of having anything but a mild case would be eager to get the virus.  Without a vaccine, many young people are seeing it as simply a matter of time before they have the virus.  "Flattening the curve" has more to do with spreading the number of people who have the virus out over a longer period of time, rather than reducing the total number of people who have the virus (Unless we flatten and come up with a vaccine in the meantime).  Many young people would rather have it, get it over with, and return to their daily life--somewhat like the strategy of trying to get all of your kids to have chicken pox at the same time when they are young and move on like many of our grandparents practiced. 

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6 hours ago, lovelearnandlive said:

Also, if we are going to base decisions on modeling, shouldn’t we be doing what we do when trying to predict hurricane landfalls - tracking multiple models, seeing where the consensus is, and perhaps downgrading the outliers? All of the models could still end up being off but wouldn’t that be better than relying on a single model?

My understanding, from the best info I can find, is that's kind of how NC is doing their modeling. Of course the issue is the "relies on best-available information" part. The research models are generated independently by Duke, UNC and NoviSci and then they develop a composite of the three models for the official one.

 

Quote

The epidemiologists and data scientists from Blue Cross and Blue Shield of NC, Duke University, data science start-up NoviSci, RTI International and the University of North Carolina developed a simple "weather forecasting" modeling approach that relies on best-available information from three independent research models.

They found that maintaining social distancing policies, like those in place now, will give us the best chance of making sure the health care system in North Carolina has sufficient capacity to manage the growing number of cases.

"Like a weather forecast, the composite results don't predict an absolute outcome, but they predict a probability that an outcome will occur," said Duke adjunct professor and NovaSci CEO Dr. Aaron McKethan.

 

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4 hours ago, JennyD said:

Infections are continuing to slow in Israel.  8904 cases, 57 deaths.  The number of severe cases is also leveling off., although deaths are going up.

It has become clear that the Purim holiday on March 10-11 was a major accelerator of the virus's spread, even though there were already some restrictions in place -- closed borders, no large gatherings, public events cancelled, etc.  (The holiday accelerated spread in diaspora Jewish communities as well.) The government is absolutely hell-bent that we not lose the gains we have made over Passover, which begins tomorrow (Wed) night. We are already under a strict lockdown enforced by police, but starting today all remaining intercity (and in Jerusalem, some inter-neighborhood) travel is totally shut down and on Wednesday night itself there will be a curfew.  

Celebrating the first night of Passover with family and friends to remember the Exodus from Egypt is the most widely observed custom across the Jewish world and this all feels very sad and strange, but also meaningful.  Freedom is so fragile.

 

I keep thinking of Passover beginning tomorrow, Eastern Holy Week beginning on Sunday, Western Holy Week going on now, and Ramadan beginning on the 23rd.  Those are all such important communal religious holidays that are not the same if you can’t be with other people.

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This sounds promising. 🙂 This trial led by Mayo Clinic will use plasma from people who have recovered from COVID-19 to treat current covid patients.

https://www.postbulletin.com/life/health/mayo-looks-for-plasma-donors-for-a-hopeful-strategy/article_a3210c90-7853-11ea-88de-1b623be8b15d.html

Joyner said the goal of the plasma therapy is to prevent sick people from ending up in the ICU or to accelerate patients in ICU out of it, thereby relieving pressure on the health care system.

The cooperative effort involves 40 institutions in 20 states, with Mayo leading the project.

"Our main goal over the next weeks is to ramp up delivery of this product across the country," Joyner said in a conference call with regional and state media.

Joyner suggested that the speed involved in putting the trial together was nothing short of remarkable. What usually takes 18 months in terms of setting up the trial has taken 18 days.

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13 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

 I know at least two people whose GPs wanted testing but were refused because they didn’t mean the international travel criteria.

*cringes in American*

This is how my area got to where we are now.

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1 minute ago, square_25 said:

I mean, I guess it's unsurprising when you think about statements like "Where do we put all the bodies?" that people are making, but it's really stark to see represented. 

Yeah, in the convo I had with someone who doesn't get this he basically said sure NY had lots of deaths, but NY has lots of people.  They always have lots of deaths... This really puts it in perspective.

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31 minutes ago, whitehawk said:

*cringes in American*

This is how my area got to where we are now.

Yep.  We only find international cases when we only test for them.  They are changing the definitions now.  They were pretty open about the fact that the lack of testing was due to lack of resources.  Now they have more tests they are supposedly ramping it up.

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8 hours ago, Farrar said:

I don't disagree with any of that advice per se. I mean, we're not taking walks. We're going to the grocery store once every two weeks. We're literally pacing the backyard, which is the size of the dining room. So it's not like I am not doing "the right things" or advocating otherwise. But I think it's natural to speculate about the dates and the peaks and the models. People in this thread were literally doing that. So I commented. And it would, indeed, be nice to have a sense of our timetable for various things. I think that's pretty relevant, even if, in the end, it turns out to be unknowable. And the gist of my comment was that the models seem like they're all over the place. That's really it.  

 

Are you not allowed to take walks?  That is one of the few things keeping us sane right now.

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30 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://amp.detroitnews.com/amp/2955929001?__twitter_impression=true
 

detroit - 2200 health workers either tested positive or at home with symptoms consistent with coronavirus 

This is not at all surprising. Having healthcare workers without appropriate PPE is like sending a soldier into a firefight without a bullet-proof vest.

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56 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Not the person you're asking, but we're not taking walks :-/. But then we're in NYC, and it is just too dense. 

Same. We're in central DC and there are always some people on the street. It's not so bad as NYC for sure, but there's no way to take a walk and not pass dozens of people.

I took a "walk" up and down the alley with dh the other day. We went to the bottom and back like ten times. We had to pass people three times, but the alley was wide enough to distance. We're lucky that we have a yard. We've been spending an inordinate amount of time in it. But it's also the size of our dining room, for context. Maybe a smidge bigger.

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In our area of PA, there’s an article about a man recovering from COVID (positive test.) His wife is showing mild symptoms, but he’s saying they will only test 1 person per family.  I get that from a supply aspect, but it sure does have to screw with numbers.

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5 hours ago, Melissa in Australia said:

very similar here. Where I live most of the river flat  farmland is dairy. every day massive tankers come and collect the milk from the farms. depending on who the farmer has a contract with is what the  milk turns into. Some have contracts with Bega Cheese - it all gets turned into cheese, others have other contracts and it gets turned into milk and milk products , like cream, butter, powered milk, baby formula, ice cream, UHT milk etc

 

The nearby dairy’s milk goes first to a company called Organic Valley (whose meat side, Organic Prairie, also works with Australian farmers and maybe NZ too), and OV itself produces dairy products in many forms including powdered, and maybe shelf stable; cheeses; etc, but if OV is full up, then a smaller more local company that makes ice cream and yoghurt takes the rest. A ways away in an area with lots of dairy production many seem to be producing for Tillamook cheese and creamery—I guess like your area dairies with Bega cheese contracts.  But I think both Organic Valley and Tillamook are cooperatives with farmer-owners or some other arrangements that aren’t just a buy - sell contact. (And maybe in tough times being part of a cooperative will make a difference.  Organic Valley is a relatively new company, but Tillamook is over 100 years old and weathered wars, Great Depression and the 1918 Influenza.) 

I like having the big organic dairy with its cows munching away nearby, and hope it doesn’t start having major troubles or needing to dump milk.  I wish I could buy raw milk direct from them if they were not able to get it to processing and markets. 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Amira said:

Those are all such important communal religious holidays that are not the same if you can’t be with other people.

We are going to do a Skype seder with my son who lives on the other coast.  He hasn't been here for Passover in ages--so I guess the virus has done one good thing, which is to give us the idea that we can be with him anyway.

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1 hour ago, Mom2mthj said:

Are you not allowed to take walks?  That is one of the few things keeping us sane right now.

Might depend on where one lives. Urban, probably not a good idea. Suburban could be fine, depending on space and volume. Rural, enjoy your space! We know several families who purposely chose to endure this experience in their vacation homes, far away from people. 

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2 hours ago, square_25 said:

 

That’s a great visual— hope they’ll extend it and wish I could slow it down a little.

 

Plus adding on:

An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]

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23 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

The nearby dairy’s milk goes first to a company called Organic Valley (whose meat side, Organic Prairie, also works with Australian farmers and maybe NZ too), and OV itself produces dairy products in many forms including powdered, and maybe shelf stable; cheeses; etc, but if OV is full up, then a smaller more local company that makes ice cream and yoghurt takes the rest. A ways away in an area with lots of dairy production many seem to be producing for Tillamook cheese and creamery—I guess like your area dairies with Bega cheese contracts.  But I think both Organic Valley and Tillamook are cooperatives with farmer-owners or some other arrangements that aren’t just a buy - sell contact. (And maybe in tough times being part of a cooperative will make a difference.  Organic Valley is a relatively new company, but Tillamook is over 100 years old and weathered wars, Great Depression and the 1918 Influenza.) 

I like having the big organic dairy with its cows munching away nearby, and hope it doesn’t start having major troubles or needing to dump milk.  I wish I could buy raw milk direct from them if they were not able to get it to processing and markets. 

 

 

 

I buy OV butter. So good! 

We do get raw milk and some grass-fed, flash pasturized cream locally, weekly. We buy butter from local dairies at the farmers' markets sometimes. 

Very thankful for high quality food and for the ability to support local farms. 

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1 minute ago, square_25 said:

Oh, goodness. I saw that, but I didn't notice that most of those weren't even counted. 

 

When I saw the visual you linked I was thinking “plus an estimated at Home uncounted number  — itself with higher deaths  per day than the former top cause of death.”

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2 hours ago, whitehawk said:

*cringes in American*

This is how my area got to where we are now.

My American city/metro area is still following that criteria too. We are doomed if people won't stay home until testing expands.

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47 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

In our area of PA, there’s an article about a man recovering from COVID (positive test.) His wife is showing mild symptoms, but he’s saying they will only test 1 person per family.  I get that from a supply aspect, but it sure does have to screw with numbers.

In my area if one person in a family is tested positive we tell the other family members to just assume they have it and act accordingly but that is why our numbers are relatively low too.

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8 hours ago, Pen said:

 

I wonder what it takes to make it into dry powder milk—that was all sold out here.

Nestle is a big manufacturer of powdered milk for all ages. Such a supply chain mismatch, powdered milk companies like Nestle could have bought up the surplus. 

https://www.usaemergencysupply.com/information-center/all-about/all-about-dehydrated-dairy/how-is-powdered-milk-made (long article)
“An Interview With Mark Silvas, the National Sales and Marketing Manager for the Humboldt Creamery where we get our powdered milk.

The process of making powdered milk is an interesting operation. Milk comes from dairy farms scattered across the countryside. Each morning, large tank trucks stop at each dairy farm and collect the milk that has accumulated over the past day. Then it is transported to the creamery.

Once it gets here to the creamery, it's run through a filter and put into a holding tank. As it waits it's turn to go through the first stage of processing, it's run through a battery of tests to insure it meets quality standards.

Milk first passes into the evaporator where about a third of it's water is removed. The evaporator consists of 3 colandrais, together being about 4 feet in diameter and 6 stories tall. The evaporator has a partial vacuum put on it, lowering the boiling point to about 135 degrees F. This is important for two reasons. First, it makes it possible for the water in the milk to be evaporated at a low enough temperature that it won't damage the milk. And second, it reduces the cost a substantial amount. Fresh, raw milk contains about 12% solids if you include the butterfat. During the evaporation process, water in the milk is removed until the solids increase to 50%.”

 

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I have moved a lot in my life and several schools, organizations, churches,  I have been involved with in different places have me on email lists—I have been somewhat surprised by the different approaches, attitudes, time frames, I see in different ones.  

Mostly when I read something that pertains for East Coast and ideas expressed that it is going to be up and running ASAP I just sort of roll my eyes and shrug and shake my head. 

But I think now that there are some strong differences in USA regional attitudes toward CV19. 

And I wonder if some people on this thread for example, ————, and some others who feel they need to know the peak so they can make plans etc, could be partly expressing predominant regional attitudes differences. 

For example: My NYC high school alma mater seemed to be wondering whether in person high school graduation will be on time or have to be postponed at the same time as  my son’s rural Oregon school seemed to have accepted that there isn’t going to be an in person graduation this year. 

And I also wonder if some lack of proactive shut down decision also fuels stress as it is not known what will happen for upcoming events. Not that it is a big deal compared to more weighty issues, but will there be a _____ (graduation, summer camp, track and field finals.... on and on) or won’t there be is harder to deal with than being fairly certain that, no, there won’t be.   I see this a little also from big city California mailings, but nowhere near to the same extent as from East Coast mailings. 

The predominant attitude difference seems to be “we want to let you know that we are hoping to be up and running as usual soon” versus “we want to reach out and make contact during this difficult time.”

I realize that it is much harder (more cramped, no easy outdoors) for people to be stuck at home in NYC than in rural Oregon. Nonetheless it seems like the push to return to business as usual I see  in NYC emailings is jarring compared to the news images of refrigerator trucks for dead.  NYC goes something like, extremely exaggerated, “for our families and staff with Covid-19 we express wishes for speedy recovery and hope we will be able to see you all better at the Spring Gala, which we have postponed once again now to April 21 since schools shut down was extended to April 20.” For rural Oregon, also exaggerated: “we are taking this situation one day at a time, everything in person except for child care for children under 12 with parents in essential services with preference to medical staff families if space is limited, and provision of takeaway meals is closed till further notice.”

Edited by Pen
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🇯🇵 Tokyo https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/tokyo-hospital-doctors-test-positive-for-covid-19-after-party-12618324

“TOKYO: One of Japan's most prestigious hospitals apologised for an "unforgivable blunder" after 40 trainee doctors attended a drinking party and 18 subsequently tested positive for the coronavirus.

Keio University Hospital said on Monday (Apr 6) that one trainee doctor tested positive for the virus last week, and that tests on another 98 found 17 more were also positive. 

 

The hospital confirmed that 40 trainees had attended the party after work, and 14 of those present had tested positive for the virus.

"What happened was an unforgivable blunder on part of our trainee doctors," hospital director Yuko Kitagawa said in a statement.

"They sorely lacked the self-awareness necessary for being a doctor."“

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Regarding the plasma antibody treatment, I think Mayo is coordinating and overseeing the places that will be using it, but the identification of the antibodies that work on Covid, I believe, is the result of Regeneron’s work. It’s no small feat what Regeneron has done.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/regeneron-s-r-d-war-room-sleepless-nights-and-esprit-de-corps-hunt-for-covid-19-therapy

It will be interesting to see how well this works because antibodies have trouble “sticking” to this virus. It’s a sneaky virus for sure.

Another problem is treating cytokine storm. We should approve the CytoSorb device to do this. It’s been used in many countries already and is proving to be helpful in Italy and China. It’s a game changer.

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O

Quote

Another problem is treating cytokine storm. We should approve the CytoSorb device to do this. It’s been used in many countries already and is proving to be helpful in Italy and China. It’s a game changer.

 

Maybe a White House Petition could be started on behalf of CytoSorb?  I don’t know enough to start one, but I’d sign it if you did. 

Or change .org for appeal to FDA? 

I don’t know what is relevant

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1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

That’s a great visual— hope they’ll extend it and wish I could slow it down a little.

There is a pause button on the left of the time line.  Once it is paused then you can drag the triangle cursor along the time line to explore the data more slowly.

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10 hours ago, Pen said:

 

I wonder what it takes to make it into dry powder milk—that was all sold out here.

The best thing you can do is to complain to whoever governs the dairy industry in your state and tell them that dry milk is out (and if regular milk is going too fast). I think that where a specific farmer's milk ends up going varies regionally by what processors are near them. 

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Here is an article about how Idaho does contact tracing.  The case numbers are currently going down, they should be able to increase the contact tracing they are doing soon.

https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/coronavirus/article241815406.html

Here is an article with a graph of Idaho daily cases.  https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/coronavirus/article241811796.html The graph is below the graph with deaths.  Below that is a county by county map.  Blaine County, the ski county, has 423 cases, 23,000 population.  Ada County has 418 cases, population about 450,000.  The highest caseload county up North, Kootenai County, is across from Spokane, Washington.

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3 hours ago, Pen said:

I like having the big organic dairy with its cows munching away nearby, and hope it doesn’t start having major troubles or needing to dump milk.  I wish I could buy raw milk direct from them if they were not able to get it to processing and markets. 

The bad news is that the dumping of milk has started already in california and wisconsin. All the school cafeterias, workplaces, restaurants have stopped ordering. Apparently the big restaurants now use ultra pasteurized shelf stable milk and no longer buy fresh milk. All the farmers who had contracts for supplying fresh milk to these places are dumping. That makes me so sad because I cannot buy as much milk as I want in my area because there is a limit of 1 per customer and forget about milk powder - I have been looking for it for a month now and can only get goat milk powder online. If I find the article about milk dumping, I will post a link to it later on.

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1 hour ago, kbutton said:

The best thing you can do is to complain to whoever governs the dairy industry in your state and tell them that dry milk is out (and if regular milk is going too fast). I think that where a specific farmer's milk ends up going varies regionally by what processors are near them. 

 

I am not personally concerned about dry milk being out—we already had a couple of packs for power outages.  And we don’t like it enough to use more than a bare minimum. 

But it seems a shame that Wisconsin farmers are dumping milk because they cannot sell it. 

I would not want to “complain” so much as to suggest that there might be some way for the Wisconsin dairy farmers to have their milk get converted to powdered instead of dumping.

I presume in powdered form it could go where there is a shortage.  

 

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🙂 🇬🇧 

https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/52189430

“Mercedes has made the design of a new breathing-aid device it helped develop freely available to help fight the coronavirus crisis.

The device helps patients with lung infections breathe more easily when an oxygen mask alone is insufficient.

The device was designed in conjunction with University College London.

UCL Hospital consultant Professor Mervyn Singer said: "These devices help save lives by ensuring ventilators are used only for the most severely ill."
 

The new 'continuous positive airway pressure' device was reverse-engineered from a previous model in less than 100 hours and received regulatory approval last week.

The revised design consumes 70% less oxygen than the earlier model.

The designs released by Mercedes for public use include specifications of materials, tools and kit used in the rapid-prototyping process.

The UK government has ordered 10,000 of the devices which are being produced "at a rate of up to 1,000 a day", Mercedes say, at their engine-design base in Brixworth, Northamptonshire.

Professor Rebecca Shipley, Director of UCL Institute of Healthcare Engineering, said: "These life-saving devices are relatively simple to manufacture and can be produced quickly. We hope that, by making the blueprints publicly available, they can be used to improve the resilience of healthcare systems preparing for the Covid-19 pandemic globally."

The Mercedes effort is part of a wider scheme undertaken by all seven UK-based F1 teams, featuring three different work streams, aimed at boosting the supply of critical-care equipment in hospitals across the country.”

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1 hour ago, Pen said:

But I think now that there are some strong differences in USA regional attitudes toward CV19. 

I don't think you can extrapolate patterns like that based on a small number of random emails sent to one person.

I think being concerned about planning and wanting to see some decent data modeling is much more a function of individual personality and circumstances. Some people are planners and some are more go-with-the-flow. People who have/had important plans and activities that have been postponed are going to be more anxious about knowing when those things can resume than those whose plans are more flexible or easy to reschedule. For me, personally, it doesn't much matter whether restrictions lift in two weeks or 6 months, but that difference would literally be life-altering for DS, and having a "best estimate based on what we know now" is far less anxiety-inducing than "we have no idea."

There is also a lot of frustration not with the lack of exact numbers (peak deaths, or vent use, or whatever) but with the incredible discrepancies between different models that use different data and assumptions. I was shocked to discover that the IHME predictions were based entirely on data from Wuhan. That just seems so crazy and counter-productive to be making predictions — predictions that may be driving real policy decisions — based on data we know is absolute garbage. I would really like to see some of the other models and know what those are based on, in conjunction with qualitative "best guesses" from experts.

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52 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

The bad news is that the dumping of milk has started already in california and wisconsin. All the school cafeterias, workplaces, restaurants have stopped ordering. Apparently the big restaurants now use ultra pasteurized shelf stable milk and no longer buy fresh milk. All the farmers who had contracts for supplying fresh milk to these places are dumping. That makes me so sad because I cannot buy as much milk as I want in my area because there is a limit of 1 per customer and forget about milk powder - I have been looking for it for a month now and can only get goat milk powder online. If I find the article about milk dumping, I will post a link to it later on.

 

Might not be the link you were thinking of but here is one

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-dairy-insight/u-s-dairy-farmers-dump-milk-as-pandemic-upends-food-markets-idUSKBN21L1DW

 

There’s obviously a mismatch between demand for milk that individuals want and milk dumping.

The article said milk can’t be frozen or stored in silos...

But powdered can be stored relatively well.

And maybe some company should make ice cream that’s to preserve the milk, not to make it into a dessert.  So for example no sugar form and it could last longer frozen and go in coffee.

Hey.  I have a home ice cream maker.  Next time I am out if I can get milk enough, if there aren’t severe restrictions on number of quarts allowed, I am getting some extra and seeing if I can do that.

And  what a bummer that I only just now thought of it! 

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I saw something interesting on a healthcare FB Covid site - no source, couldn’t get the link to open also so am just going to copy and paste.

Below is a quote - not written by me!

 

 

“A friend sent this to me and it makes SO MUCH SENSE!!  Hypothesizing that covid-19 is a primary hematologic infection rather than respiratory.  This is an analysis done on a computer to study the virus.  A lengthy read but it is what we are seeing in these patients.

"Might not even be a respiratory illness after all and that's just a byproduct of the wreckage it makes in blood haemoglobin (thus making ARDS a symptom not a cause).

I wish this would get more traction because if this computational analysis is correct, this could completely change the way we approach COVID, globally.

I will copy some summaries that explain this paper in layman's terms:

- Using computational analysis (modeling the behavior of a molecule in a computer), they've worked out the probable mechanism by which SARS-nCov-2 wreaks havoc on patients, as well as why chloroquine and favipiravir seem to work.

- Inside our red blood cells, there is a molecule called hemoglobin, which contains heme groups. Each heme group is a molecular "ring" (called a porphyrin) that can hold an iron (Fe) ion inside. Having an iron ion inside is what allows this heme to carry O2 (and CO2) in our blood. This is how our bodies move O2 to our tissues and remove CO2 waste products.

- The paper modeled these and found that the proteins produced when COVID replicates "collaborate" to knock iron ions out of heme groups (HBB) and replace them with one of the proteins. This makes the red blood cell unable to transport O2 and CO2!

- If the computer modeling is right, it shows that the virus hijacks our [red] blood [cells] and makes it unable to carry O2 to a patient's tissues/organs, and likewise unable to carry CO2 out of them. This would lead to organ and tissue death, roughly in the same way as if a patient were being suffocated. Even when a patient can breath (fill lungs with air), the oxygen isn't getting to the cells in their body.

- The inflammation in the lungs results from the lungs not being able to perform the oxygen/CO2 exchange, and would therefore appear to be a SECONDARY result of the hijacking of the blood. The lungs not working is a result of lack of O2 in blood, not the cause of it. Hence the "ground glass opacities".

- The paper models the behavior of chloroquine and faviparavir as well, which appear to bind to the non-structural viral proteins that hijack the heme groups, thus inhibiting them from knocking out the iron and wrecking the O2-carrying ability of the red blood cells.

- This also explains the observation made by various ER docs (incl this one in New Orleans) that patients tend to have elevated ferritin: ferritin is used to store excess iron. If a lot of iron is knocked out of heme groups and floating around, the body produces more ferritin

If true, this may mean a few things:

1. Starting drug treatment while symptoms are mild keeps virus from hijacking too much blood, enabling a still-healthy body to mount an immune response. Explains why early drug treatment (first week of symptoms) is often successful.

2. Drug treatment and intubation once patient is critical will rarely work because tissues/organs are already damaged, blood can't carry O2, and the body is too weak to produce new red blood cells able to carry Fe (and thus oxygen/CO2) even if drugs inhibit more hijacking.

3. Thus: start severe patients on drug treatment upon hospital intake to suppress further hijacking of blood by the virus, then give them a blood transfusion of new red blood cells immediately that are unhijacked. If all this is true, we would see rapid patient improvement.

---

The problem is we have not yet had studies testing whether patients will respond well to blood transfusions from people who have not had COVID-19. Right now medical attention is focused on blood transfusions from those who have beat COVID and have antibodies. This needs to be looked at

This research ties in to the fact that weight/age/high blood pressure are such risk factor and why certain blood types are less afflicted than other

NonAfrican malaria risk zones have a population with genetic thalassemia, which would explain the discrepancies in the population affected by CV, this is noted in Italy:" “

Edited by TCB
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13 hours ago, Matryoshka said:

Can someone tell me how the *same* model took those numbers and trends and decided that we'd end up needing 10x more beds and ventilators than Louisiana? 

Just catching up on the thread this morning.  The word "same" in modelling, does not mean the same *numbers* are put into coefficients. "Same" means the same *type* of model (there are many many kinds). So the models can be considered the same, while having different rates, relationships, and time lags put between variables to link them.  Small changes to these numbers can make massive massive differences to forecasts.  

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4 minutes ago, TCB said:

I saw something interesting on a healthcare FB Covid site - no source, couldn’t get the link to open also so am just going to copy and paste.

 

“A friend sent this to me and it makes SO MUCH SENSE!!  Hypothesizing that covid-19 is a primary hematologic infection rather than respiratory.  This is an analysis done on a computer to study the virus.  A lengthy read but it is what we are seeing in these patients.

"Might not even be a respiratory illness after all and that's just a byproduct of the wreckage it makes in blood haemoglobin (thus making ARDS a symptom not a cause).

I wish this would get more traction because if this computational analysis is correct, this could completely change the way we approach COVID, globally.

I will copy some summaries that explain this paper in layman's terms:

- Using computational analysis (modeling the behavior of a molecule in a computer), they've worked out the probable mechanism by which SARS-nCov-2 wreaks havoc on patients, as well as why chloroquine and favipiravir seem to work.

- Inside our red blood cells, there is a molecule called hemoglobin, which contains heme groups. Each heme group is a molecular "ring" (called a porphyrin) that can hold an iron (Fe) ion inside. Having an iron ion inside is what allows this heme to carry O2 (and CO2) in our blood. This is how our bodies move O2 to our tissues and remove CO2 waste products.

- The paper modeled these and found that the proteins produced when COVID replicates "collaborate" to knock iron ions out of heme groups (HBB) and replace them with one of the proteins. This makes the red blood cell unable to transport O2 and CO2!

- If the computer modeling is right, it shows that the virus hijacks our [red] blood [cells] and makes it unable to carry O2 to a patient's tissues/organs, and likewise unable to carry CO2 out of them. This would lead to organ and tissue death, roughly in the same way as if a patient were being suffocated. Even when a patient can breath (fill lungs with air), the oxygen isn't getting to the cells in their body.

- The inflammation in the lungs results from the lungs not being able to perform the oxygen/CO2 exchange, and would therefore appear to be a SECONDARY result of the hijacking of the blood. The lungs not working is a result of lack of O2 in blood, not the cause of it. Hence the "ground glass opacities".

- The paper models the behavior of chloroquine and faviparavir as well, which appear to bind to the non-structural viral proteins that hijack the heme groups, thus inhibiting them from knocking out the iron and wrecking the O2-carrying ability of the red blood cells.

- This also explains the observation made by various ER docs (incl this one in New Orleans) that patients tend to have elevated ferritin: ferritin is used to store excess iron. If a lot of iron is knocked out of heme groups and floating around, the body produces more ferritin

If true, this may mean a few things:

1. Starting drug treatment while symptoms are mild keeps virus from hijacking too much blood, enabling a still-healthy body to mount an immune response. Explains why early drug treatment (first week of symptoms) is often successful.

2. Drug treatment and intubation once patient is critical will rarely work because tissues/organs are already damaged, blood can't carry O2, and the body is too weak to produce new red blood cells able to carry Fe (and thus oxygen/CO2) even if drugs inhibit more hijacking.

3. Thus: start severe patients on drug treatment upon hospital intake to suppress further hijacking of blood by the virus, then give them a blood transfusion of new red blood cells immediately that are unhijacked. If all this is true, we would see rapid patient improvement.

---

The problem is we have not yet had studies testing whether patients will respond well to blood transfusions from people who have not had COVID-19. Right now medical attention is focused on blood transfusions from those who have beat COVID and have antibodies. This needs to be looked at

This research ties in to the fact that weight/age/high blood pressure are such risk factor and why certain blood types are less afflicted than other

NonAfrican malaria risk zones have a population with genetic thalassemia, which would explain the discrepancies in the population affected by CV, this is noted in Italy:" “

That is very interesting!  I had to look up thalassemia and who's in the higher risk group genetically, and came up with Thalassemia occurs most often in African Americans and in people of Mediterranean and Southeast Asian descent.  Is this a US-centric look?  Why African-Americans and not Africans?  Could explain the unusually high death rates in the European Mediterranean countries?  But Southeast Asia seems to be doing relatively well, at least so far??

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