wuhan - coronavirus

[SeaConquest]

Forgive me if this was posted already.

The CDC has traced Chicago's coronavirus outbreak to just *two* family gatherings.

The new case study, one of the most detailed looks at how CV19 moves through communities, shows how just one person can set off a chain reaction of infections.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/08/funeral-birthday-party-hugs-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR0WrLEz0aTwOiGQfNfbKBmfZaSYfkGGNClvBvDxgQ4aA6a0hnP66qyzzN8

[HeartString]

1 hour ago, SKL said:

22 hours ago, Mainer said:

 

When this is over, we can compare how the NHSs in developed countries fared - what worked and what didn't and what didn't make a difference.  Many of the worst hit countries have NHS.

I’m curious how it will effect the economy once this over.  I anticipate that here in the US we’ll see bankruptcies spike from the medical bills families are incurring. A lot of people are losing their job, which means no insurance.  Even with good insurance a 2-3 week hospital stay could easily bankrupt a family, especially if it comes after a prolonged job loss.  Before settling on bankruptcy most families will struggle to pay those bills, which will mean less money going into the economy.   
The staggering medical bills at the end of this will be a uniquely American phenomenon. 
 

ETA: I’m not making a political point one way or the other.  I just think it will be a natural experiment that will give economists something to write papers about for a long time.  

Edited April 9, 2020 by Cnew02

[RootAnn]

47 minutes ago, Joker said:

I saw an article this morning that said South Korea was now also seeing people test positive for a second time. I know other places have mentioned it happening as well so I wonder if that is going to be a common occurrence and if it will cause issues with a possible vaccine.

The article that I read said that when checking for antibodies, some people  who had experienced mild symptoms (no ICU stay) didn't show enough to keep them from being reinfected although they'd tested positive and most did have some antibodies. (There was a small percentage that did not have enough antibodies to register on their test.) The article then said that the low levels of antibodies made the researchers concerned that the vaccine wouldn't be enough to trigger the immune response necessary to make the person immune to infection.

Article might have been linked in this thread already:

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about?

A team from Fudan University analysed blood samples from 175 patients discharged from the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre and found that nearly a third had unexpectedly low levels of antibodies.

In some cases, antibodies could not be detected at all.

The researchers said they were surprised to find that the antibody “titer” value in about a third of the patients was less than 500, a level that might be too low to provide protection.

“About 30 per cent of patients failed to develop high titers of neutralising antibodies after Covid-19 infection. However, the disease duration of these patients compared to others was similar," they said.

The team also found that antibody levels rose with age, with people in the 60-85 age group displaying more than three times the amount of antibodies as people in the 15-39 age group.

“Vaccine developers may need to pay particular attention to these patients,” Huang said. If the real virus could not induce antibody response, the weakened version in the vaccine might not work in these patients either.

[SeaConquest]

14 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Do you mean that you figure it started here a few weeks earlier than in CA?

 

Also, not to get too political, but the genome of the virus on the east coast clearly shows that it was coming from Europe. And closing the border to people from China and the CDC testing protocols (testing only people coming back from China) clearly left NY (and other regions, particularly on the East coast) very exposed. The virus was seeded in our country under this false sense of security because of these inadequate protocols. People coming back from Europe carrying the virus were allowed entry willy-nilly.

Edited April 9, 2020 by SeaConquest

[SeaConquest]

OT, but just wanted to say... Last night's seder themes of freedom, physical and mental hardship, plagues, fear of the unknown, faith in G-d, Spring rebirth and renewal, redemption, and gratitude took on extra meaning in this season of Covid 19. While we gathered around our seder table -- just the four of us this year -- I felt truly fortunate to have a roof over my head, a comfortable couch to lounge in while I drank my 4 cups of wine, enough money to afford a feast of food with which to fill my belly, surrounded by a healthy family, and safe in my home. Sometimes, perspective is truly everything. Chag Sameach to all who celebrate. Wishing my Jewish Hive friends a truly joyous Passover. Thank you all for sharing your wisdom in this thread.

Edited April 9, 2020 by SeaConquest

[SeaConquest]

https://www.wired.com/story/we-need-a-covid-19-vaccine-lets-get-it-right-the-first-time/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=onsite-share&utm_brand=wired&utm_social-type=earned&fbclid=IwAR3cnTjPVn97uhgrAUKXI1RIGLWMaJ9ZXQO2KR9fuZ-7zS0ygxmuIAS4Uj0

An interesting article on vaccine history from past pandemics:

 

We Need a Covid-19 Vaccine—Let’s Get It Right the First Time

The flu shot campaigns of 1976 and 2009 offer key lessons for how (and how not) to distribute, monitor, and communicate about vaccines. But will anyone listen?

[Lanny]

@SeaConquest  Well written words of wisdom.  Amen...   Happy Passover!

[Jean in Newcastle]

36 minutes ago, SeaConquest said:

 

No, I mean that more Californians (even outside of Asian communities that were in touch with friends and relatives who knew more about what was going on in China) were socially distancing and isolating earlier than people in NY. California and the PNW are just more connected overall IMHO to the pan-Pacific region at large vs NY, which is more connected to Europe, and you can see that in the genome of the virus. De Blasio was late in closing schools vs Newsom, who has taken bold action and not pussyfooted around in making decisions that affected 40 million people (which is just a crazy number of people). When the Bay area was looking like a hot spot, it was locked down stat, with the rest of the state quickly following behind. 

I wonder if the NY explosion was partly from not closing schools right away - so that children who were asymptomatic were spreading it to more of the population? 

Also - a question about the genome and China vs. Europe.  Wasn't the European virus also from China? 

[mathnerd]

22 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I wonder if the NY explosion was partly from not closing schools right away - so that children who were asymptomatic were spreading it to more of the population? 

Also - a question about the genome and China vs. Europe.  Wasn't the European virus also from China? 

NY virus was unique when compared to the Washington state virus, which is because the European virus had mutated, and it  entered NY, so it is different from China version (which west coast has).

As for precautions in the bay area: my neighbors, coworkers and friends are first generation chinese immigrants whose families were traveling back to china for Christmas breaks, Chinese New Year etc. and the whole area was generally more aware and paranoid of the virus spreading since January. My son took hand sanitizer bottle to his sports practices every day starting in January and we had him wear masks in public starting in Feb, stopped eating in crowded restaurants in Feb and cancelled all his outside activities on March 1st and we are not in the minority to do so. We isolated since late february, all the big employers (with several thousand tech workers) asked them to informally work from home whenever possible and to stop using conference rooms, shaking hands and to wipe down their desks and computers every few hours in Feb, all trade conferences were cancelled and business travel halted around 1st week of march. Hoarding started in the 1st week of march though I could still get hand sanitizers then, but shelves were empty around March 10th which means that people were in lockdown mode at that point. Now, my busy city is Ghost Town and people just stay inside and it seems that suburbs are strictly following SIP guidelines.

Edited April 9, 2020 by mathnerd

[Arcadia]

20 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

 

Also - a question about the genome and China vs. Europe.  Wasn't the European virus also from China? 

Governments worldwide was only screening people from hotspot countries, not thinking about the European countries that the Grand Hyatt super spreader case and other infected people spread to. 

[Arcadia]

3 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

 

. We isolated since late february, all the big employers (with several thousand tech workers) asked them to informally work from home whenever possible and to stop using conference rooms, shaking hands and to wipe down their desks and computers every few hours in Feb, all trade conferences were cancelled and business travel halted around 1st week of march. Hoarding started in the 1st week of march though I could still get hand sanitizers then, but shelves were empty around March 10th which means that people were in lockdown mode at that point. 

I couldn’t get toilet paper and hand sanitizers since late February/early March. People literally clean off the shelves on the Feb 29th weekend of toilet paper. We went to East Bay to get our toilet paper and canned goods. Safeway restock house brand toilet paper for first week of March and then they sold out. The San Jose area’s grocery outlet stores were kind of the last to be cleared off toilet paper and canned goods, just before shelter in place started. 
 

My nearest Safeway sells Burpee seeds so we grab some packets for fun gardening while grabbing milk. 

[Arcadia]

@Plum@mathnerd@TCB

Bavaria, Germany put all the early positive cases to hospital to learn how to treat. 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/covid-19-germany-munich-cluster-italy-coronavirus-spread-12625210

“They are based in Stockdorf, a German town of 4,000 near Munich in Bavaria, and they work at car parts supplier Webasto Group.

The company was thrust under a global microscope after it disclosed that one of its employees, a Chinese woman, caught the virus and brought it to Webasto headquarters.

There, it was passed to colleagues - including, scientists would learn, a person lunching in the canteen with whom the Chinese patient had no contact.

The Jan 22 canteen scene was one of dozens of mundane incidents that scientists have logged in a medical manhunt to trace, test and isolate infected workers so that the regional government of Bavaria could stop the virus from spreading.

That hunt has helped Germany win crucial time to build its COVID-19 defences.

The time Germany bought may have saved lives, scientists say.

Its first outbreak of locally transmitted COVID-19 began earlier than Italy's, but Germany has had many fewer deaths. Italy's first detected local transmission was on Feb 21. By then Germany had kicked off a health ministry information campaign and a government strategy to tackle the virus which would hinge on widespread testing.

In Germany so far, more than 2,100 people have died of COVID-19. In Italy, with a smaller population, the total exceeds 17,600.

"We learned that we must meticulously trace chains of infection in order to interrupt them," Clemens Wendtner, the doctor who treated the Munich patients, told Reuters.

Wendtner teamed up with some of Germany's top scientists to tackle what became known as the Munich cluster, and they advised the Bavarian government on how to respond. Bavaria led the way with the lockdowns, which went nationwide on Mar 22.

...

Now known as Germany's Case #0, the Shanghai patient is a "long-standing, proven employee from project management" who Engelmann knows personally, he told Reuters.

The company has not revealed her identity or that of others involved, saying anonymity has encouraged staff to co-operate in Germany's effort to contain the virus.

The task of finding who had contact with her was made easier by Webasto workers' electronic calendars – for the most part, all the doctors needed was to look at staff appointments.

"It was a stroke of luck," said Wendtner, the doctor who treated the Munich patients. "We got all the information we needed from the staff to reconstruct the chains of infection."

...

Between Jan 27 and Feb 11, a total of 16 COVID-19 cases were identified in the Munich cluster. All but one were to develop symptoms.

All those who tested positive were sent to hospital so they could be observed and doctors could learn from the disease.

Bavaria closed down public life in mid-March. Germany has since closed schools, shops, restaurants, playgrounds and sports facilities, and many companies have shut to aid the cause.”

[SKL]

27 minutes ago, square_25 said:

That seems like a reasonable way to go, to have a record of "assumed COVID" separate from the record from "confirmed COVID." I assume it'd be optimal to have both. 

I don't agree with this since the majority of sick, symptomatic people tested for COVID are testing negative.

[SKL]

There were delays in social distancing in NYC as the local politicians (or at least some of them) were recommending that people act like things were pretty normal.

Another possible factor - and this is where my state's 3rd case was traced to - people who attended the AIPAC conference March 1-3 were definitely exposed.  We know some national politicians got it there.  From our county, a bus load of Jewish people went there, and before long it was all around our largely Jewish zip codes.  New York City has the largest Jewish population in the world, so I would assume multiple folks brought the virus from DC to NYC.

I think it's without doubt that the virus spread in schools, so the date of school closings was most likely a factor.  Our state closed schools when the 4th case was discovered, the first case believed to be "community spread."  NYC had hundreds of known cases before it closed schools.

[ElizabethB]

Another factor in the difference may also be vitamin D.  I posted earlier about how it may be part of the racial gap, but it may also be some of the difference between NY and CA.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/vitamin-d-coronavirus-gap-liz-brown/

[Wheres Toto]

3 hours ago, square_25 said:

I really don’t think that’s going to be a huge determiner. Canada is doing fine, and so is South Korea. NYC is not, even though it actually has really excellent healthcare normally.

The rapidity if response, density, and relative isolation from places where cases are exploding seem useful here. Type of health system much less so.

 

1 hour ago, Cnew02 said:

I’m curious how it will effect the economy once this over.  I anticipate that here in the US we’ll see bankruptcies spike from the medical bills families are incurring. A lot of people are losing their job, which means no insurance.  Even with good insurance a 2-3 week hospital stay could easily bankrupt a family, especially if it comes after a prolonged job loss.  Before settling on bankruptcy most families will struggle to pay those bills, which will mean less money going into the economy.   
The staggering medical bills at the end of this will be a uniquely American phenomenon. 
 

ETA: I’m not making a political point one way or the other.  I just think it will be a natural experiment that will give economists something to write papers about for a long time.  

 

I think it's going to cause two problems.  People who are mildly ill won't go to the doctor if they don't have insurance and might even wait too long if they are seriously ill, and people who might have been able to be treated will die.   Then, with the  unemployment numbers, most of those people are probably losing their health insurance and most probably won't be able afford COBRA or individual plans.  That is going to be HUGE for many people.

A pandemic is not the time to have millions of people without health insurance of any kind. 

[73349]

3 minutes ago, Where's Toto? said:

I think it's going to cause two problems.  People who are mildly ill won't go to the doctor if they don't have insurance and might even wait too long if they are seriously ill, and people who might have been able to be treated will die.   Then, with the  unemployment numbers, most of those people are probably losing their health insurance and most probably won't be able afford COBRA or individual plans.  That is going to be HUGE for many people.

A pandemic is not the time to have millions of people without health insurance of any kind. 

And it will cascade to cause more rural hospital closures as people don't pay the bills.

[EmseB]

2 hours ago, SeaConquest said:

 

Also, not to get too political, but the genome of the virus on the east coast clearly shows that it was coming from Europe. And closing the border to people from China and the CDC testing protocols (testing only people coming back from China) clearly left NY (and other regions, particularly on the East coast) very exposed. The virus was seeded in our country under this false sense of security because of these inadequate protocols. People coming back from Europe carrying the virus were allowed entry willy-nilly.

True, but I think the fact that Europe, and especially Italy, has/had a huge amount of Chinese people working in sweatshops for the fashion industry there and the US kind of overlooked that initially as a source of outbreak is...not political. Italy didn't want to sacrifice their cheap labor and it was bad timing  with the holiday travel to and from Asia.. And, again, any cutting off of travel from Asia or Europe in time to protect the US would have looked extreme. It looked extreme when we did do it and that was clearly too late.

[SKL]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

The problem is all the numbers are nonsense. NYC really probably had hundreds on March 1st, when they found their first case, and had no clue.

We closed a week later than San Francisco, but at the beginning of that week, we didn’t even look ahead in cases. That’s the issue — they had literally a week from the first discovered case to when they figured out things were dire. No one had adjusted. 

I’m sure closing earlier would have been a good idea. I’m just not sure it was politically feasible given the available info.

Honestly the bolded was true everywhere.  Some states did it anyway.  Trust me, nobody was jumping for joy when it happened here.

[Arcadia]

🇬🇧 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52215606

“Modern day ‘land army’

UK growers recently launched a recruitment drive, calling for a modern-day “land army” to prevent millions of tonnes of fruit and vegetables going to waste.

Mr Bridgeman told the BBC there were "encouraging signs" of people coming forward following this recruitment campaign "because they want to work, and they understand the need - we need to get the food onto the shelves this summer".

Farmers need about 70,000 workers to cover the jobs usually carried out by seasonal migrants, according to the British Growers’ Association. 

Travel and movement restrictions caused by the coronavirus pandemic left a "serious labour shortage" ahead of this picking season, the association said.

There have been calls for those working in the entertainment, hospitality or tourism industries to fill the vacancies and “pick for Britain”.

Several schemes have been set up to recruit new workers. 

The charity Concordia, for example, usually helps young people organise experiences abroad, but it has signed up more than 10,000 people to its Feed the Nation scheme to help with picking. About 70% of them have never worked on a farm before.

They are mainly students but also carpenters, chefs and former service personnel. As new people arrive, they will have to self-isolate for seven days before they are allowed to start work.

Another scheme is being put together for fruit pickers by industry bodies British Summer Fruit and British Apples and Pears.”

[EmseB]

15 minutes ago, square_25 said:

It’s not that we should have had travel restrictions, it’s that we should have tested people coming in from Europe!! 

I think we should have had both. But I really don't know how that could have been accomplished given what we knew and when and given the way our FDA approves things like new diagnostic tests combined with the fact that WHO tests didn't meet US guidelines. Also considering just sheer volume of people coming into the eastern US from Europe every day. You would have had to restrict travel anyway if you wanted to test people coming in.

[Arcadia]

🇬🇧 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/uks-boris-johnson-out-of-intensive-care-as-condition-improves-2020-04-09

“LONDON (AP) — British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been moved out of intensive care, his office said Thursday.

In a statement, a spokesman at 10, Downing Street said Johnson “has been moved this evening from intensive care back to the ward, where he will receive close monitoring during the early phase of his recovery.”

Johnson had been in intensive care for three days after his symptoms for coronavirus worsened. He tested positive for the virus two weeks ago and at first had only “mild” symptoms.”

[Arcadia]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i-dont-think-we-should-ever-shake-hands-ever-again-fauci-says-2020-04-08

“Could the coronavirus pandemic bring about the end of handshakes? You bet, if Dr. Anthony Fauci has anything to say about it.

“I don’t think we should ever shake hands ever again, to be honest with you.”

That’s what Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease and the most prominent face of the U.S. fight against COVID-19, said in a Wall Street Journal podcast released Tuesday.

“When you gradually come back, you don’t jump into it with both feet,” Fauci told Kate Linebaugh on The Journal, while speaking about how life could eventually start returning to normal. “You say, what are the things you could still do and still approach normal? One of them is absolute compulsive hand-washing. The other is you don’t ever shake anybody’s hands.

“I don’t think we should ever shake hands ever again, to be honest with you. Not only would it be good to prevent coronavirus disease; it probably would decrease instances of influenza dramatically in this country.”

When asked when life could “get back to normal,” Fauci said: “It isn’t like a light switch on and off, it’s a gradual pulling back on certain of the restrictions and getting society a bit back to normal. . . bottom line, it’s going to be gradual.”

Fauci reiterated his no-handshake stance at Wednesday’s White House briefing. “I mean it sounds crazy, but that’s the way it’s really got to be,” he said.

Fauci added that if current social-distancing measures are successful in slowing the spread of COVID-19 through the end of April, it could be appropriate to start thinking about relaxing some restrictions.”

[Corraleno]

There was an article in yesterday's NY Times looking at what went wrong in NY. The two biggest factors were the timing of the shutdown compared to other states, and the impact of CDC's flawed tests and short-sighted testing restrictions.

Even though CA and NY shut down within days of each other, NY already had far more cases at that point. When Newsom announced the shut down on March 19th, there were 675 cases in CA. When Cuomo announced the NY shut down the next day, there were already more than 7,000 cases in NY, and the order didn't take effect until the 22nd. 

The CDC's many failures also hurt NY far more than other areas. The first known case in NY, a woman who had flown into JFK from Iran, was confirmed on March 1st, and Cuomo announced that they would contact everyone on the flight and aggressively trace all contacts. When he asked the CDC to do that, they refused. CDC's continued insistence that only people with China travel/contact could be tested was devastating for NY, and they were further screwed by the fact that many of the CDC tests they received were totally unusable. The CDC told states with flawed tests to skip one of the three components and use the tests anyway, but NY received many tests where 2 of 3 components were flawed and those tests were unusable. They did not get permission to start their own testing until community spread was already well established.

 

 

[Arcadia]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-nine-companies-are-working-on-coronavirus-treatments-or-vaccines-heres-where-things-stand-2020-03-06

“These 21 companies are working on coronavirus treatments or vaccines — here’s where things stand
...

Companies: Amgen Inc. US:AMGN and Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp. US:ADPT

Type: Treatment

Stage: Preclinical

Background: The very early-stage collaboration seeks to discover and develop antibodies that can be used to prevent or treat COVID-19. Financial terms of the exclusive collaboration will be finalized “in the coming weeks,” the companies said April 2. “Working with Adaptive and using their viral-neutralizing antibody platform will expedite our ability to bring a promising new medicine into clinical trials as quickly as possible,” Robert Bradway, Amgen’s chairman and CEO, said in a statement. 

Companies: BioNTech SE US:BNTX and Pfizer Inc. US:PFE

Type: Vaccine 

Stage: Preclinical

Name: BNT162

Background: On March 17, Pfizer announced that it would help develop and distribute BioNTech SE’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate, though the deal excludes China. The companies plans to put the vaccine candidate into clinical trials in late April, in Germany and the U.S. As part of the deal, Pfizer will pay $185 million upfront, with additional possible future milestone payments of up to $563 million. BioNTech is also testing the vaccine in collaboration with Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Group Co. Ltd. in China. Pfizer and BioNTech for several years have said they would partner to develop mRNA-based influenza vaccines. 

Name: CalciMedica Inc. 

Type: Treatment

Stage: Phase 2

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Name: CM4620-IE 

Background: The privately held clinical-stage company is testing an investigational drug in 60 patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia and who are at risk for their disease to progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). The open-label, Phase 2 trial is taking place at Regions Hospital in St. Paul, Minn., and Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit. “It has the potential to prevent the development of ARDS in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia and reduce the need for ventilators at a time when there is a shortage of ventilators in health care facilities across the U.S.,” Dr. Charles Bruen, a critical care and emergency physician at Regions Hospital, said in an April 9 news release. 

Company: CytoDyn Inc. US:CYDY

Type: Treatment

Stage: Phase 2 clinical trial

Name: leronlimab

Background: CytoDyn, a preclinical biotechnology company based in Vancouver, said March 31 that the FDA is allowing a mid-stage trial for its experimental drug leronlimab in COVID-19 patients to move forward. The investigational therapy has not been approved for any indications; for COVID-19, it’s being proposed as a treatment for mild-to-moderate respiratory complications that occur in patients with the disease. The randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study will test the efficacy and safety of leronlimab in 75 patients. CytoDyn had been studying the experimental therapy as a treatment for people with HIV and a form of metastatic breast cancer. 

Company: Dynavax Technologies Corp.US:DVAX

Type: Adjuvant platform for vaccines

Background: Dynavax said in March that it’s making its adjuvant technology available to companies developing COVID-19 vaccines through a partnership with CEPI. Dynavax’s adjuvant technology can help provide an increased immune response to a vaccine; the biopharmaceutical company is also working with the University of Queensland, Australia, on vaccine development through a CEPI deal.

Company: Gilead Sciences Inc. US:GILD

Type: Treatment

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Stage: Phase 3 clinical trials 

Name: remdesivir

Background: Gilead is a longtime drugmaker best known for developing the first major cure for hepatitis-C in Sovaldi, a therapy that changed the standard of care for that disease but also kicked off the national debate about drug pricing. The company has experience developing and marketing HIV drugs, including Truvada for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), its preventive HIV medicine. Along with U.S. trials, Gilead is conducting a randomized, controlled clinical trial in Wuhan, testing remdesivir as a treatment for mild-to-moderate forms of pneumonia in people with the virus. The trial was given the go-ahead by China’s Food and Drug Administration in February. Gilead in late March halted individual compassionate use requests for remdesivir as outbreaks worsened in the U.S., having provided the investigational therapy to 1,000 patients. “The system cannot support and process the overwhelming number of applications we have seen with COVID-19,” Gilead CEO Daniel O’Day said March 28. The company said in April it aims to have 500,000 treatment courses manufactured by October and 1 million by the end of 2020. 

Clinical trials:

1. As of April 9, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases is enrolling patients in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase 2 trial evaluating 440 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 at up to 75 sites worldwide, including at three sites in Singapore and South Korea. However, the majority of the study locations are in the U.S. The study began Feb. 21 and is expected to conclude April 1, 2023. Previously listed U.S. sites include the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Md., the University of Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha, the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston, and Providence Sacred Heart Medical Center in Spokane. 

2. As of April 9, Gilead said a randomized, open-label Phase 3 trial will evaluate remdesivir in 1,600 patients with moderate COVID-19. It previously said it would enroll 600 participants. The trial started enrolling patients in March, with results to come in May. The clinical trial listing states the study is taking place in 13 countries, including Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and the U.S. 

3. As of April 9, Gilead said a randomized, open-label Phase 3 trial will evaluate remdesivir in 2,400 patients with severe COVID-19. The drugmaker previously said it planned to include 400 participants in the trial. The trial starts enrolling patients in March, with results expected in May. The clinical trial listing states the study is taking place in Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and the U.S. 

Company: GlaxoSmithKline US:GSK

Type: Pandemic adjuvant platform for vaccines

Name: AS03 Adjuvant System

Background: GSK is another leading vaccine maker, having brought to market vaccines for human papillomavirus (HPV) and the seasonal flu, among others. On Feb. 3, it said the CEPI-funded University of Queensland will have access to the British drugmaker’s vaccine adjuvant platform technology, which is believed to both strengthen the response of a vaccine and limit the amount of vaccine needed per dose. On Feb. 24, GSK said that Clover Biopharmaceuticals Inc., a Chinese biotechnology company, is also using its adjuvant technology in combination with its vaccine candidate, COVID-19 S-Trimer, in preclinical studies. Dr. Thomas Breuer, chief medical officer for GSK Vaccines, is leading work on vaccines and the adjuvant platform. Separately, GSK and Vir Biotechnology Inc. announced a deal in early April, in which GSK made a $250 million equity investment in Vir as the two companies work together to develop two of Vir’s experimental therapies, VIR-7831 and VIR-7832, expected to go to Phase 2 clinical trials sometime in 2020. 

Company: Heat Biologics Inc. US:HTBX

Type: Vaccine

Stage: Preclinical

Background: Heat Biologics has previously announced that it is developing a vaccine for the novel coronavirus with the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine. It disclosed March 17 in a financial filing that its COVID-19 vaccine candidate had been added to the World Health Organization’s “draft landscape” of 41 candidate vaccines. The company also recently joined the Alliance for Biosecurity, which may help it “secure government funding to support its rapid development, production, and distribution” of its COVID-19 vaccine, according to Maxim Group analysts. 

Company: Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc.US:INO

Type: DNA-based vaccine

Timeline: Phase 1 clinical trial 

Name: INO-4800

Background: Another CEPI grantee, awarded $9 million, Inovio has begun testing its vaccine candidate in a Phase 1 clinical trial at two sites in the U.S.: the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania and the Center for Pharmaceutical Research in Kansas City, Mo. 

Timeline: Inovio develops immunotherapies and vaccines but hasn’t yet had a product approved for treatment. For INO-4800, preclinical testing was performed between Jan. 23 and Feb. 29. The company began clinical trials in the U.S. with up to 40 participants in April, dosing the first patient on April 6. It has said it plans to launch human trials in China and South Korea that same month, and says that it has a total of 3,000 doses prepared for the trials in the three countries. Inovio said it expects to have the first results from the trial in the fall and to have 1 million doses of the vaccine ready for additional clinical trials or emergency use by the end of the year. Inovio on March 12 announced a $5 million grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to test a delivery device for its vaccine candidate. In late March, Inovio said that Ology Bioservices Inc., a contract development and manufacturing organization, had received a $11.9 million contract from the Department of Defense to support future potential manufacturing of Inovio’s vaccine candidate for military personnel. 

Company: Johnson & Johnson US:JNJ

Type: Vaccine

Name: TBD 

Background: J&J announced Feb. 11 it was working with BARDA to test its vaccine candidate, with each organization providing $1 billion for research and development and the public-health organization funding the Phase 1 trials. Similar to GSK, J&J’s AdVac and PER. C6 technologies are used to improve the development process for a vaccine and were also used to develop J&J’s experimental Ebola vaccine. “We are also in discussions with other partners, that if we have a vaccine candidate with potential, we aim to make it accessible to China and other parts of the world,” Dr. Paul Stoffels, J&J’s chief scientific officer, said in a statement. On March 13, J&J said it started preclinical testing on multiple candidates in collaboration with Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, and by March 30 it had identified a lead vaccine candidate. The company said it is scaling up its vaccine manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. and abroad as part of its commitment to bring “an affordable vaccine to the public on a not-for-profit basis for emergency pandemic use.” J&J also said in February that it had partnered with BARDA on a project that aims to screen existing antiviral medications, including experimental or approved therapies, that may be effective against COVID-19. 

Timeline: The company aims to put its lead vaccine candidate in a Phase 1 clinical trial in September, the company said March 30, and it may have investigational doses of the vaccine available by early 2021 for emergency use. 

Company: Moderna Inc. US:MRNA

Type: RNA-based vaccine

Stage: Phase 1

Name: mRNA-1273

Background: Moderna received funding from CEPI in January to develop an mRNA vaccine against COVID-19. On Feb. 24, it said it had shipped the first batch of mRNA-1273 to the NIAID for a Phase 1 clinical trial in the U.S. 

Clinical trials: The first patient in the Phase 1 trial received a dose of the vaccine candidate on March 16. The study is expected to enroll 45 healthy adult patients, between the ages of 18 and 55 years old, in an open-label Phase I clinical trial to test mRNA-1273 as a vaccine for COVID-19. It’s expected to conclude June 1, 2021. Participants will be followed for one year. The trial will be conducted at Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle. CEPI funded the manufacturing of the investigational vaccine for the first phase of the trial, which is evaluating different doses for safety and immune response. “It’s pretty important that we do this in a placebo-controlled scientifically sound design so that once those trials read out, we actually conclusively know and can demonstrate both the efficacy and overall safety profile of this vaccine,” Moderna chief medical officer Tal Zaks said during a March 30 call with investors, according to a FactSet transcript.

Company: Novavax Inc. US:NVAX

Type: Vaccine

Stage: Phase 1 clinical trial 

Background: Novavax, a preclinical biotechnology company, announced Feb. 26 it had several vaccine candidates in preclinical animal studies. In April, the company said it had identified a COVID-19 vaccine candidate, and it plans to initiate a Phase I clinical study in May. The first phase of the placebo-controlled study will enroll 130 healthy adults; the first round of data from that study is expected in July. In March the company said it had received $4 million from CEPI to develop a COVID-19 vaccine and that Emergent BioSolutions Inc. US:EBS would support contract development and manufacturing for the experimental vaccine. 

Company: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. US:REGN

Type: Treatment

Stage: Preclinical

Name: No name yet

Background: On Feb. 4, Regeneron announced it is working on developing monoclonal antibodies as treatments for COVID-19. The company’s VelocImmune platform uses genetically-engineered mice with humanized immune systems in preclinical testing. “We are aiming to have hundreds of thousands of prophylactic doses ready for human testing by end of August,” a spokesperson said. Christos Kyratsous, VP of infectious disease R&D and viral vector technology, is running the project.

Companies: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Sanofi

Type: Treatment

Stage: Phase 2/3 clinical trial 

Name: Kevzara

Background: The FDA previously approved Kevzara, a treatment developed by Regeneron and Sanofi, as a therapy for rheumatoid arthritis in 2017 as part of a recently concluded longstanding R&D partnership between the two companies. 

Clinical trials:The companies said March 16 they had started a Phase 2/3 trialtesting Kevzara as a treatment for patients who have been hospitalized with severe COVID-19 infections. This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial is expected to enroll up to 400 patients and will take place at 16 sites in the U.S. New York’s Mount Sinai Hospital, the first site, has started enrolling patients, according to a company spokesperson. The aim is to evaluate if the drug lessens patient fevers and their need for supplemental oxygen. The Phase 3 trial will evaluate if Kevzara prevents deaths and reduces need for mechanical ventilation, supplemental oxygen, or hospitalization. Early results from a small 21-person trial in China that have not been peer-reviewed found that COVID-19 patients reported reductions in fever and 7% of them had a reduced need for supplemental oxygen within days of starting treatment. On March 30, the companies said the first patient in their global trial had been treated. The patient is not located in the U.S., though the Phase 2/3 trial is being conducted in seven countries, including the U.S

Company: Roche Holding AG CH:ROG

Type: Treatment

Stage: Phase 3

Name: Actemra

Background: Roche’s Actemra was first approved in 2010 as a rheumatoid arthritis drug. The Swiss drugmaker has initiated a Phase 3 clinical trial evaluating Actemra as a treatment for patients with COVID-19 who have been hospitalized with severe pneumonia. Roche began enrolling around 330 patients in early April, at 55 sites in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world. On April 3, the first patients in the trial were treated, a Roche spokesperson said by email. The company plans to examine patient mortality and need for mechanical ventilation or an intensive care unit stay among other primary and secondary endpoints. The trial is in partnership with BARDA. 

Companies: Sanofi US:SNY and Translate Bio Inc. US:TBIO

Type: Vaccines

Stage: Preclinical 

Name: No name yet

Background: Starting Feb. 18, Sanofi is working with BARDA to test a preclinical vaccine candidate for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) for COVID-19 using its recombinant DNA platform. It has a long history of producing vaccines in its Sanofi Pasteur business and acquired this candidate through its 2017 acquisition of Protein Sciences for $750 million. The French drugmaker previously worked with the organization on flu vaccines. Scientists in Meriden, Ct., are working on the vaccine; David Loew, Sanofi Pasteur’s EVP, is leading the project. Sanofi announced a separate program with Translate Bio Inc. US:TBIOon March 27 to develop a mRNA vaccine. 

Timeline: A spokesperson said Sanofi aims to put a vaccine into a Phase 1 clinical trial between March 2021 and August 2021.  

Company: Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Ltd. US:TAK

Type: Treatment

Stage: Preclinical 

Name: TAK-888

Background: The Japanese drugmaker said March 4 it plans to test hyperimmune globulins for people who are at high risk for infection. As part of its research, which will be performed in Georgia, Takeda said it would need access to plasma from people who have recovered from COVID-19 or those who have received a vaccine if one is developed. Dr. Rajeev Venkayya, president of Takeda’s vaccine business, is the co-lead of the company’s COVID-19 response team. Like J&J, Takeda plans to examine whether other therapies, both experimental or with regulatory approval, may have treatment potential. In April, Takeda and CSL Behring US:CSLLY said they formed an alliance to develop a plasma-derived treatment for COVID19. Biotest AG and Octapharma also joined the alliance. 

Company: Vaxart Inc. US:VXRT

Type: Vaccine

Stage: Preclinical

Background:Vaxart was one of the first companies to announce plans to develop a vaccine when it did so Jan. 31. In March, the clinical-stage company announced that Emergent BioSolutions will help develop and manufacture its oral vaccine candidate. “We believe an oral vaccine administered using a room temperature-stable tablet may offer enormous logistical advantages in the rollout of a large vaccination campaign,” Vaxart CEO Wouter Latour said in a March 18 news release. The company plans to start a Phase 1 clinical trial in the U.S. in the second half of 2020, a company executive said. As of March 31, it has five vaccine candidates for preclinical testing. 

Company: Vir Biotechnology Inc. US:VIR

Type: Treatments

Stage: Preclinical

Background: In many ways, Vir has been one of the most prolific partners in the biotech field during the pandemic. The preclinical company is run by George Scangos, the former CEO of Biogen Inc.US:BIIB. Starting Feb. 25, it said it was collaborating with Shanghai-based WuXi Biologics to test monoclonal antibodies as a treatment for COVID-19. If the treatment is approved, WuXi will commercialize it in China, while Vir will have marketing rights for the rest of the world. It later announced a partnershipwith Biogen to help develop and manufacture its monoclonal antibodies as a potential treatment for COVID-19. Biogen will handle clinical manufacturing of Vir’s antibodies, the company said. Vir later announced a research agreement with Generation Bio as part of its COVID-19 antibody development program. And most recently it announced the equity investment from GSK.”

[Terabith]

Not sure if this should go here or memes or its own thread, but Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock rewritten for Covid-19.  https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/the-covid-19-song-of-j-alfred-prufrock?fbclid=IwAR1ZyVfJQ3dMucOyGtSligYL9uRxXl5iimjbMF79Rpxwt2kxTLV4FW6FguU

[lewelma]

3 hours ago, SeaConquest said:

The CDC has traced Chicago's coronavirus outbreak to just *two* family gatherings.

A wedding in NZ has 87 in its cluster at this point, and would have spread far wider had we not locked down in a very strict way 16 days ago and been closely contact tracing from the beginning.  We only have 1200 cases, so 87 cases is a large percentage.

The PM has been pushed to loosen the lockdown to allow for funerals and she has said NO over and over again.  Her point is that funerals are where people come together which is the opposite of what we are trying to accomplish.  And she keeps saying that our 12 clusters which account for about a third of all cases here are a snapshot of NZ life - a wedding, a school, a conference, a sporting event, a cruise, etc.  Without the early lockdown and contact tracing, our 12 clusters would have quickly ballooned.   

[lewelma]

I've also done the doubling rates to compare to what you guys are seeing.  Our data is contaminated with overseas travellers being such a huge proportion in the beginning but this is what I got:

March 17th to 19th -- 12 to 28 cases - doubling rate of 2 days 

March 19th to 21st -- 28 to 52 cases - doubling rate of 2 days 

March 21st to 23rd  -- 52 to 102 cases - doubling rate of 2 days  - lockdown announced on 23rd to start in 48 hours 

March 23rd to 24th -- 102 to 205 cases - doubling rate of 1 day 

March 24th to 27th -- 205 to 368 cases - doubling rate of 3 days - immediate slowing likely due to international travel restrictions  

March 27th to Mar 31st -- 368 to 647 cases - doubling rate of 4 days 

Mar 31st 647 to April 9th -- 647 to 1239 - doubling rate of 9 days - more recovered cases than new cases for first time on April 9

Still 1 death, 14 in hospital (with 4 of them in ICU).  Including recovered, we have around 900 active cases.

[Arcadia]

@TCB@wathe@Alice

https://english.busan.go.kr/bsnews01/1428987 (ETA: deleted image, you can see image in news link)

“Ahn Yeo-hyun, a medical doctor at the Nam-gu Community Health Center in Busan and Korea Kiyon Co., the manufacturer of an airtight box, have jointly developed and introduced a rapid walk-through COVID-19 test booth on March 31, 2020 in Busan. 

The “walking through” testing station is a public phone booth-like virus testing facility into which suspected patients walk into and have their sample taken by the medical staff who stand outside the booth. Inversely, the medical staff who stand inside the booth take samples from testees who stand outside the booth. The test booth makes bidirectional sample taking possible. 

Filtering and a fan system for preventing the spread of the virus and clean air flow circulation in the booth reduce the post-test sterilizing process to a minute and further shorten the time required for testing. Superior glovebox technology is also applied so medical staff can take the sample without wearing protective clothing. The booths can be maintained in a positive pressure, as well as in a negative pressure state, meaning they can be used anywhere, whether it be indoors or outdoors.”

Edited April 11, 2020 by Arcadia

[lewelma]

6 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

Oh, I don't care who does it or why as long as the vaccine works. The profit motive is a real motive. So what? There's enough competition that there probably won't be price gouging. I'm happy enough to reward the successful company with all the profits it desires. 

I heard an interview with Johnson and Johnson yesterday and they have promised to sell the vaccine at non-for-profit rates while Covid19 is still a crisis situation, but when pushed by the interviewer, he said that they would patent the vaccine and revert to for-profit business approach after the crisis point.  They are gearing up to make 1 billion in the first go, but when pushed by the interviewer (she is really good!), said that all 1 billion would not necessarily be at the not-for-profit prices, might be 600k, basically whatever was required to get over the crisis point.  Seemed like you could drive a truck through this definition.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018742144/the-race-to-find-a-vaccine-johnson-and-johnson

Edited April 9, 2020 by lewelma

[EmseB]

I hope whomever figures out how to make a safe vaccine in the quickest possible time frame makes a lot of money doing so. I don't want those scientists, engineers, techs, factory workers, etc., working for free. Give them all the dollars.

Edited April 9, 2020 by EmseB

[lewelma]

2 minutes ago, EmseB said:

I hope whomever figures out how to make a safe vaccine in the quickest possible time frame makes a lot of money doing so. I don't want those scientists, engineers, techs, factory workers, etc., working for free. Give them all the dollars.

The main problem with competing to get the vaccine first is that then the companies will not be sharing data and cooperating.  Discovery will be faster if they work together, which is why I think J&J who is the largest manufacturer (gearing up for production of a billion!) has gone for not-for-profit to start.  

I've heard it suggested that a large prize of like a billion dollars should be created, which then can be shared by all involved rather than the profits going  just the one company that gets the patent. 

Edited April 9, 2020 by lewelma

[lewelma]

I edited my previous post.  Did you see the idea of the prize?

[Pen]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Another thing I'm wondering is whether the optimism of the IHME model is going to wind up being pernicious. For example, here's their prediction for Sweden: 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden

Now, note that Sweden has very limited restrictions, and to me seems to be heading firmly up on an exponential curve. (This is qualitative, of course.) But they are still predicting a very limited problem! That seems wild to me. And I wonder if it breeds complacency? 

 

Predictions are based on full Distancing measures

COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020

Last updated April 8, 2020 (Pacific Time).

 

 

what is IHME anyway?

[Corraleno]

40 minutes ago, EmseB said:

I hope whomever figures out how to make a safe vaccine in the quickest possible time frame makes a lot of money doing so. I don't want those scientists, engineers, techs, factory workers, etc., working for free. Give them all the dollars.

But the profit will go to the shareholders, not the engineers, techs, and factory workers who produced the vaccine. The ones who will reap the "reward" are the investors who bet on the right company, not the people who did the work.

[EmseB]

Just now, Corraleno said:

But the profit will go to the shareholders, not the engineers, techs, and factory workers who produced the vaccine. The ones who will reap the "reward" are the investors who bet on the right company, not the people who did the work.

Those people all have to get paid, raises. bonuses. You're saying the engineers, scientists, etc., won't benefit if their company makes money?

Shareholders and investors are rich investors who put money in the company so that it can do the research. I don't have the money as an individual to really do that, but investors are also people like me who have modest/small mutual funds, 401ks, and IRAs with small shares in companies like Sanofi and J&J... funds that are mostly decimated, funds that will determine if and when we can possibly ever retire or just live decently when we're older or not. Investors also come in the form of state and local governments with pension funds that are currently in serious jeopardy because of what is happening economically.

Investor and shareholder doesn't only mean rich, and even if it did, I'm fine with people putting money into a thing so that they make money later. Get rich saving humanity. Go for it. And honestly most of the money they are likely to get paid is from governments buying the vaccines anyhow. I'm pretty okay with a combination of public and private dollars and anyone successful making a nice profit off their hard work and off of their invested $$$.

[TCB]

5 minutes ago, Seasider too said:

 

Is this occurring randomly, or are certain age groups/preexisting conditions involved?

I don’t know. I read an account by a dr from Seattle I think, and he said that the way they were dying was that they would start to improve respiratory wise, but would then develope these cardiac issues and have a cardiac arrest and die.

 

ETA: I also heard some of the Drs in China talking about the cardiomyopathy some patients experienced. I remember hearing them calling it coronary pneumonia, or something like that, and thinking it sounded like a strange name.

Edited April 9, 2020 by TCB

[lewelma]

Thinking some more about the vaccine.  J&J said they would distribute it first on a not-for-profit basis to the areas of the world most affected, but I wonder given that they are an American company, won't America confiscate them for Americans even if another area is harder hit?

[TCB]

3 minutes ago, lewelma said:

Thinking some more about the vaccine.  J&J said they would distribute it first on a not-for-profit basis to the areas of the world most affected, but I wonder given that they are an American company, won't America confiscate them for Americans even if another area is harder hit?

Confiscate seems like a loaded word. I’m not an American but I live here In the US. I’m wondering if New Zealand would take sufficient vaccines for their citizens if the company was a New Zealand one. 

[Melissa in Australia]

33 minutes ago, lewelma said:

Thinking some more about the vaccine.  J&J said they would distribute it first on a not-for-profit basis to the areas of the world most affected, but I wonder given that they are an American company, won't America confiscate them for Americans even if another area is harder hit?

Many countries are working on a vaccine, not just USA. 

I know that here in Australia there have been animal trials since end of January, and human trials are predicted to be ready later in the year. 

 

[Ausmumof3]

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/covid-19-hundreds-of-uk-care-home-deaths-not-added-to-official-toll?__twitter_impression=true
 

UK - many nursing home deaths most likely from Covid19 not being tested or counted.

[Ausmumof3]

10 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Many countries are working on a vaccine, not just USA. 

I know that here in Australia there have been animal trials since end of January, and human trials are predicted to be ready later in the year. 

 

Queensland uni have one going to next stage in Netherlands I think.

https://amp.9news.com.au/article/a49fe4b6-0ff7-4cbe-ae06-8cb4772e0404?ocid=Social-9News&__twitter_impression=true

human trials expected later in the year

 

Edited April 9, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[lewelma]

57 minutes ago, TCB said:

Confiscate seems like a loaded word. I’m not an American but I live here In the US. I’m wondering if New Zealand would take sufficient vaccines for their citizens if the company was a New Zealand one. 

Sorry, not trying to be political, but it is a serious question. In the interview I heard from the J&J representative (linked above), he was very clear that they would give the vaccine to the areas that were worst hit, but I actually don't think this would be allowed. I don't have a problem with the American government requiring American companies to give the vaccine to Americans first.  I do have a problem with J&J suggesting that this is not the case, because it is a marketing ploy.  

Edited April 9, 2020 by lewelma

[Shoeless]

On 4/9/2020 at 8:35 AM, vonfirmath said:

 

Is your husband's office Dell?

That is local to us (my husband used to ride his bike when he worked there briefly) and I remember they were doing a trial run of working from home then suddenly everyone was working from home.  And on March 12 (the last day my daughter went to soccer practice) one of the other parents told me that a Dell employee who was overseeing her son's special class at Pflugerville High School had gone over to Asia and been exposed to COVID-19 and it was unclear to me if he'd been back at the high school since returning from that trip or not.  I was actually surprised to NOT hear of confirmed cases in our little city until much later.

Austin has multiple times thanked SXSW for going ahead and cancelling when they did. Otherwise we would have had people from all over here March 13 for the festival!

 

.

Edited September 23, 2020 by MissLemon

[Arcadia]

@kdsuomi@mathnerd@Carol in CA@Liz CA

 

https://kcbsradio.radio.com/articles/ca-releases-preliminary-racial-breakdown-of-covid-19-cases

“The preliminary numbers track 37% of the state’s early cases.

... The initial data breaks down as follows:

• Latinos: 30% of cases and 29% of deaths (39% of the state's population)
• Whites: 37% of cases and 43% of deaths (37% of the state's population)
• African Americans/Blacks: 6% of cases and 3% of deaths (6% of the state's population)
• Asians: 14% of cases and 16% of deaths (15% of the state's population)
• Multiracial: 2.5% of cases and 2% of deaths (2% of the state's population)
• American Indians or Alaska Natives: 0.2% of cases and 0.6% of deaths (0.5% of the states' population)
• Native Hawaiians or Pacific Islanders: 1.6% of cases and 1% of deaths (0.3% of the state's population)
• Other: 9% of cases and 5% of deaths (N/A) 

Preliminary data shows cases falling along racial lines in San Francisco so far. African Americans make up 5% of the city’s population and 4% of coronavirus cases.

Los Angeles is a noticeable discrepancy within the state, with African Americans account for a full third of the city's infections, compared to 18% of the population.

Governor Newsom emphasized strongly that it is far too early to draw conclusions about the state’s limited data. Policy changes will also have to wait.”

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Question: anyone know the death rate in Vo, Italy? The town where they tested all 3,300 residents? I'm finding lots of stories about the town but am having trouble figuring out the number of deaths, lol. Or was it just the single person who died there first that died? 

I can’t find it.  It also bears keeping in mind that any data from Vo reflects the outcome we can expect from early extensive testing.   

[Ausmumof3]

8 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh, yes, I was just wondering if they had a useful IFR since they tested everyone. But really it's probably just that they had 90 positives and 1 dead person, and it was selected to have one dead person, so not super useful... 

I’ve seen all kind of ifrs assigned on twitter and no reliable source.  Also no follow up since the original study.  
 

It could be that the virus appears more lethal than it is due to so many silent carriers.  Although even in the German study in a fairly hard hit area they had 15pc - still along way short of the 60pc needed for herd immunity.

[mlktwins]

Deleted

Edited April 11, 2020 by mlktwins

[Ausmumof3]

Not quoting but sending positive thoughts your sisters way.  I’m so sorry 

[Ausmumof3]

15 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh, yes, I was just wondering if they had a useful IFR since they tested everyone. But really it's probably just that they had 90 positives and 1 dead person, and it was selected to have one dead person, so not super useful... 

It looks like commonly accepted IFR for flu is around 0.1 .  So the 0.37 figure would make it more than 3 times as deadly?  Is that right?