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Five year risk of dying


Laura Corin
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And associated biological age.

 

http://www.ubble.co.uk/risk-calculator/disclaimer.php

 

I'm surprised by how few questions they use.  If you want to take it, the three benefits mentioned would mean that you couldn't work due to disability, you needed someone to help with you with daily personal tasks, or you needed a badge on your car so that you could park in a disabled spot.

 

I'm apparently 45 and have a 0.8% risk of dying in the next five years.

 

ETA: interesting - if I were male, I'd be 37 and would still have a 0.8% risk

 

L

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Goodness.  Reading the other results, now I feel really old.  Adding so much to my real age is kind of....depressing.  I don't feel like I'm in my 60's.  I don't look like I'm in my 60's.  Does that count?

 

It probably does count. People who feel and act old are more likely to die within 5 years, afaik.

 

ETA: try taking two steps at a time. Brisk walking probably lowered my age.

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Goodness.  Reading the other results, now I feel really old.  Adding so much to my real age is kind of....depressing.  I don't feel like I'm in my 60's.  I don't look like I'm in my 60's.  Does that count?

 

Yes, I think so.

 

Conversely -- At this moment I'm definitely NOT feeling ten years younger than my actual age. :laugh:

 

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I'm 54 and ubble age is 45. I did dh's because he's a bit older and has had a heart attack. I was shocked to see his ubble age was 52 because I thought the heart attack would make his age higher than actual age. 

I also thought the questions were weird- I was asked how many times I had given birth but his were how many cars does he have available to drive and how many people does he live with.  His asked about diabetes but mine did not. 

 

Thanks for posting- that was fun!

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Well, I'm apparently in my 60's :glare:  and have a 3.8% chance of dying in the next 5 years.  I think the fact that I have had cancer ticked my age up as well as having a long term health issue (thyroid disease and hypoglycemia).

 

I think it's the cancer.  I have a long term health issue but not cancer.

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I'm 54 and ubble age is 45. I did dh's because he's a bit older and has had a heart attack. I was shocked to see his ubble age was 52 because I thought the heart attack would make his age higher than actual age. 

I also thought the questions were weird- I was asked how many times I had given birth but his were how many cars does he have available to drive and how many people does he live with.  His asked about diabetes but mine did not. 

 

Thanks for posting- that was fun!

 

The questions are odd, but they are the ones that were found to be statistically significant for men and women.  For example, living with a family is protective of men, I believe.

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I was surprised that there were no questions about diet or weight. I am 38, 40 for the test, and I got an age of 23 and 5-year risk of dying of .1%. I've been walking around thinking that being overweight means I'm going to keel over from a heart attack any minute now. 

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Wow, that was depressing.  I'm 43 and in terrific health (knock wood) but I had cancer 18 years ago.  My Ubble age came back as 55 with a 2.2% risk of dying in the next 5 years.  

 

Good reminder to carpe diem, I suppose.  

 
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I was surprised that there were no questions about diet or weight. I am 38, 40 for the test, and I got an age of 23 and 5-year risk of dying of .1%. I've been walking around thinking that being overweight means I'm going to keel over from a heart attack any minute now. 

 

Same here, I was waiting for that question. I'm in good health, wonderful blood pressure, no diabetes, etc, but I'm pretty inactive and very overweight. I'm only 34, but I lied and said my age was 40 and got a .2% chance of dying in the next five years.

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I'm 45 and got an age of 33 with 0.2% chance of dying.

 

I too was surprised by the lack of weight questions.  My only negative answers were having seen a doctor for depression and recent financial difficulties.  I do tend to walk quickly when I walk, which isn't often enough.

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Wow, that was depressing. I'm 43 and in terrific health (knock wood) but I had cancer 18 years ago. My Ubble age came back as 55 with a 2.2% risk of dying in the next 5 years.

 

Good reminder to carpe diem, I suppose.

Well this kind of confirms Laura's thoughts that my significant increase in age was possibly because I had had cancer...

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Wow, that was depressing. I'm 43 and in terrific health (knock wood) but I had cancer 18 years ago. My Ubble age came back as 55 with a 2.2% risk of dying in the next 5 years.

 

Good reminder to carpe diem, I suppose.

Me too! I am 38 but it said I was 52! Cancer really sucks the life out of you!!

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I'm 48. It says I'm 57 with a 2% chance of dying. I've also had cancer, that and the recent life stressors probably kicked it up. 

 

I've been out mowing in the 90 degrees and high humidity. Before a shower to cool me off, I might have guessed my chance of dying in the next five minutes was higher than 2%.  :lol:

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I did it twice.  I am 40, but it said 52 with a 2% chance of death within 5 years.  When I took cancer (5 years ago) out, I was 27 with a .2% chance.  Strange it never asks about weight.  

 

I think that they were looking for questions that would not require measurements and that could be self-reported.  Walking speed is the big one, I think.  It is of course possible for someone who is dangerously overweight to habitually walk briskly, but it wouldn't be the norm, I think. 

 

My colleague doesn't have a set of bathroom scales and doesn't go to the doctor for check ups, so he has no idea what he weighs.  He thinks of himself as 'a bit overweight'.  If I looked like him I'd be at a good sized nine months pregnant, so he's much more than 'a bit'.  He walks slowly, so his general lack of activity would be picked up by that.  He also has a car, which is a black mark for men.  He's going through a divorce and has constant money worries.  He has a long term illness.  So he could self-report the entire thing without any equipment, and get a good idea of his risks.

 

This is from the website:

 

  1. Andrea and Erik found that the variables that most accurately predicted death from all causes within five years did not need to be measured by physical examination, but could be reported by individuals in response to a questionnaire. For example, asking people to rate their overall health (self-reported health) and to describe their usual walking pace were two of the strongest predictors in both men and women for different causes of death. Overall, walking pace was a stronger predictor than smoking habits and other lifestyle measurements. In fact, men aged 40-52 who reported their usual walking pace as ‘slow’ had a 3.7 times increased risk of death within five years than those who answered ‘steady average pace’.
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I think I skewed my results a bit for the worse because I said I walk at a steady, average pace.  I probably should have said I walk at a brisk pace.  I think I do.  But because I'm short my brisk pace is about average for someone taller.

 

ETA -- I did it again with just that one change and now it says I'm two years younger and my five year risk of dying went from 0.7 percent to 0.6.

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I did it twice for myself because I was unsure about how to answer number of children. I didn't know if it meant all children including adopted or biological only. I was 26 years of age with the two bio and 27 years old with all five children. Either way, I like it!

 

Sheep Daddy is 56 and his age was 64 with a 6.9% chance of dying in the next five years. The cancer really stinks.

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I did it twice for myself because I was unsure about how to answer number of children. I didn't know if it meant all children including adopted or biological only. I was 26 years of age with the two bio and 27 years old with all five children. Either way, I like it!

 

Sheep Daddy is 56 and his age was 64 with a 6.9% chance of dying in the next five years. The cancer really stinks.

 

Well, it says "How many children have you given birth to?", and to include live births only. So, adopted kids wouldn't count. They would count toward the number of people living with you if you were male though.

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I've never considered my walking pace indicative of my health but now that I think about it my low energy level lends to that as well. Interesting. My husband has very high metabolism among other things and he walks so fast I can't keep up.

Any other info on walking speed and health?

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Well, it says "How many children have you given birth to?", and to include live births only. So, adopted kids wouldn't count. They would count toward the number of people living with you if you were male though.

 

Yeesh. I didn't even notice the print in the blue box up above. I just saw the box to type in a number and the word "children".

 

I need to pay closer attention!

 

Thanks for the heads up!

 

Now I am only 26.

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I've never considered my walking pace indicative of my health but now that I think about it my low energy level lends to that as well. Interesting. My husband has very high metabolism among other things and he walks so fast I can't keep up.

Any other info on walking speed and health?

 

Fast walking speed is correlated with better health, rather than necessarily being causative.  People might walk slowly because they are already ill, they are extremely inactive, they are morbidly obese, all of which might be risk factors.  

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Hey, I like this. I am 32, with a .3% risk of dying within five years. I don't live in the UK, though. Surprising that it did not ask about BMI/body fat. Maybe it would if it was a US study.

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Hey, I like this. I am 32, with a .3% risk of dying within five years. I don't live in the UK, though. Surprising that it did not ask about BMI/body fat. Maybe it would if it was a US study.

 

It's designed to be a questionnaire that can be filled in without any technical data.   Other questions are proxies for those data.  Those data were collected in the original study, from which this simple questionnaire was developed.

 

ETA: the question about applicability to other countries is an interesting one.  For example, any Brit of my age grew up in a country where car ownership was not assumed.  So there was an awful lot of walking (running) for buses, and carrying of shopping.  I have no idea if early exercise/activity has any effect through one's life.

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That is a neat little test. Thx for posting.

 

For another fun and fast one, the sit & get up test is nice. http://discovermagazine.com/2013/nov/05-sit-down

 

Has anyone been able to get a 10 on this? I can get a 9, but not a 10, and I'm not convinced I could've gotten a 10 at my peak either (but then and again, I've never had a reason before to not use the side of my leg or a hand on my knee or w/e to get up from sitting).

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