Ukraine

[vonfirmath]

I read a book about fertilizer.  Fertilizer is what causes the level of production of crops! For a time before people (Germans) figured out how to produce fertilizer, Britain was collecting dung to fertilize crops and try to keep their people fed.  This Could Be REALLY bad news

 

The Alchemy of Air by Thomas Hager

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by vonfirmath

[prairiewindmomma]

I don’t want to derail the thread too much, but between the drying up of aquifers (hello, Ogallalah, looking at you) and drought issues, I am concerned for crop yields this year—fuel and fertilizer issues aside.

Current drought map: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

 

[Faith-manor]

14 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

I don’t want to derail the thread too much, but between the drying up of aquifers (hello, Ogallalah, looking at you) and drought issues, I am concerned for crop yields this year—fuel and fertilizer issues aside.

Current drought map: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

 

That is a scary looking map!

[Pawz4me]

38 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

I read a book about fertilizer.  Fertilizer is what causes the level of production of crops! For a time before people (Germans) figured out how to produce fertilizer, Britain was collecting dung to fertilize crops and try to keep their people fed.  This Could Be REALLY bad news

 

The Alchemy of Air by Thomas Hager

 

Farmers still use animal dung as fertilizer. My nephew spreads chicken manure compost on his fields during the winter. There are regulations involved in its use, I think due to the high phosphorus content and potential for runoff causing algae blooms (don't quote me on that, but I *think* it's what he said). I think he said the window that it's allowed to be put down here is from November through February.

[Carrie12345]

Waste from herbivore animals has *always* been considered great fertilizer.  Yes, I’d be worried about inexperienced people doing it the wrong way but, it, in and of itself, is not a bad thing. Most home organic gardeners consider it THE best thing.

[El...]

Oh, the poop trucks! Yes! 😅

When we lived in Germany, they'd periodically spray the fields with a manure slurry, and at other times with something that reeked mightily of fish. They have amazing, beautiful fields, but boy would it stink until it rained. 

They did cover crops, too. 

I'd like to see more of those practices return.  I wonder if modern US animal farming would be a safe source of manure, though. The European meat animal process is different than ours in many ways. 

[ktgrok]

16 hours ago, TechWife said:

Yeah - that’s why I modified my post - this is a discussion for another place. One worth having. Suffice it to say, improvement doesn’t mean elimination & there are ways to actually change the way we are doing things to address many of the points that you bring up. The situation isn’t stagnant.  Off topic for this thread though. 

I was struck by an article I read once that basically said our focus is on the wrong place. That we don't need to focus on MAKING more energy, but on not LOSING it. That a HUGE portion of the electrical energy we produce is lost as it travels the power grid. That smaller producton level more locally (including things like home bases solar) are important, since less travel distance means way less power lost, but also we need to be focusing WAY more on buildings that conserve heat/stay cool, etc. That we have the ability to build homes that require almost no heating/cooling, but we don't. 

34 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

Farmers still use animal dung as fertilizer. My nephew spreads chicken manure compost on his fields during the winter. There are regulations involved in its use, I think due to the high phosphorus content and potential for runoff causing algae blooms (don't quote me on that, but I *think* it's what he said). I think he said the window that it's allowed to be put down here is from November through February.

Yeah, manure is usually high in phosphorous and often low in potassium (fertilizers are rated with numbers for Nitrogen, Phosphorous, and Potassium). Different crops and different soils need differing amounts of those things. So, here in Florida where we have high phosphorous in the soil naturally we are not supposed to be using manure based products, as the unused phosphorous gets washed into waterways and causes problems. And the plants don't need it anyway. Here, we need a lot of potassium from fertilizer - so for instance a bag of Palm Fertilizer (which is a great lawn fertilizer for most Florida soil) has a ratio of 6:1:8 (NPK). But a manure based one from the same company is 6:4:0 so not really appropriate for our soil, depending on what you are growing, anyway. 

[Faith-manor]

The state police post in the county seat owns four acres next to it in case they need to expand. They don't want to devote resources to mowing it so they bought a used garden house that a local resident wanted moved, threw up really cheap fencing, and rent for a very reasonable sum, a small flock of sheep. They have a hose hooked to a hand pump, and can fill the trough without even having a trooper walk over there. It has the most lush looking grass you have ever seen every single season!

We get composted horse manure with grass clippings, left over hay scatterings, and whatever else the farmer toss into it. I take a few tubs over there, shovel it up (it is properly composted so it isn't stinky), and pay $3.00 a tub. This is what I fertilize the raised beds with. Good stuff.

 

[Eos]

5 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Chernobyl has lost power and has backup for only 48 hours:https://www.npr.org/live-updates/ukraine-chernobyl-russia-evacuation-mariupol 

My chemical and nuclear engineer son says this is Very Bad.  He's a fan of nuclear power.  

[prairiewindmomma]

4 minutes ago, Eos said:

My chemical and nuclear engineer son says this is Very Bad.  He's a fan of nuclear power.  

I have continued to follow this story and IAEA is saying that they have sufficient volume of cooling water, but also that they have lost contact with their direct monitoring station so ???? 
 

I really don’t know why Russia isn’t allowing the Ukrainians to fix the high voltage wiring that is driving this issue. The wind blows from the west towards the east there, iykwim. 

[Eos]

12 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

I have continued to follow this story and IAEA is saying that they have sufficient volume of cooling water, but also that they have lost contact with their direct monitoring station so ???? 
 

I really don’t know why Russia isn’t allowing the Ukrainians to fix the high voltage wiring that is driving this issue. The wind blows from the west towards the east there, iykwim. 

I can't even imagine.

[Pam in CT]

This whole thread by Tim Mak (NPR investigative reporter who is currently reporting from Ukraine) is informative; and this part of it is (somewhat) reassuring re Chernobyl (you don't need a twitter account to read a thread -- just double-click or copy-paste; and NPR is paywall-free)

 

[Frances]

2 hours ago, elroisees said:

Oh, the poop trucks! Yes! 😅

When we lived in Germany, they'd periodically spray the fields with a manure slurry, and at other times with something that reeked mightily of fish. They have amazing, beautiful fields, but boy would it stink until it rained. 

They did cover crops, too. 

I'd like to see more of those practices return.  I wonder if modern US animal farming would be a safe source of manure, though. The European meat animal process is different than ours in many ways. 

Those things are done in the US where I live.

[Sharpie]

5 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Fertilizer for US crops is a big issue right now. Farmers are deciding what to plant here and word from back home is that between fertilizer and fuel crops some smaller farms are making different choices this year. 

Late to this thread but this is real.  My dh sat down with our crop guy yesterday trying to formulate a plan.  We already had decided no to soybeans and corn is likely only for our personal use.   I'll be interested to see what the big farms do.  This may take out more small farms, they've been on a sharp decline.  

I'm not that involved in it but I did overhear a conversation with the crop insurance guy and forward pricing and what farms have to make to break even on commodities.  It's not pretty.  Hard decisions will have to get made for most farmers. 

[Ting Tang]

8 hours ago, Spy Car said:

It is a deeply untruthful propaganda piece.

I trust you are good hearted, but Oliver Stone is not.

Bill

 

Thanks! I don’t know much about Oliver Stone, but I will definitely research this more thoroughly. I found the whole thing rather chilling, just the history of the region in general. I count my blessings we live where we do, though.  ETA ok, I just read something that said Oliver Stone's son, Sean, was an anchor for Russian state sponsored English news? Ok, yeah, that raises a red flag with me. 

 

Edited March 10, 2022 by Ting Tang

[Ting Tang]

12 minutes ago, Sharpie said:

Late to this thread but this is real.  My dh sat down with our crop guy yesterday trying to formulate a plan.  We already had decided no to soybeans and corn is likely only for our personal use.   I'll be interested to see what the big farms do.  This may take out more small farms, they've been on a sharp decline.  

I'm not that involved in it but I did overhear a conversation with the crop insurance guy and forward pricing and what farms have to make to break even on commodities.  It's not pretty.  Hard decisions will have to get made for most farmers. 

My husband farms, too. Not sure what’s going to happen this year. We’ve heard some things, but my husband doesn’t seem afraid… yet! Somehow things always workout. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Ting Tang

[Faith-manor]

24 minutes ago, Frances said:

Those things are done in the US where I live.

Yup. This is one reason that many people from the city who retire here get very upset about "country living" because they didn't realize how much manure smell there would be each spring or how much a herd of cow smells.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Faith-manor

[Terabith]

12 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

Yup. This is one reason that many people from the city who retire here get very upset about "country living" because they didn't realize how much manure smell there would be each spring or how much a herd of cow smells.

Have they never been to the country???  Do people seriously move without doing ANY research???

[Melissa in Australia]

2 hours ago, elroisees said:

Oh, the poop trucks! Yes! 😅

When we lived in Germany, they'd periodically spray the fields with a manure slurry, and at other times with something that reeked mightily of fish. They have amazing, beautiful fields, but boy would it stink until it rained. 

They did cover crops, too. 

I'd like to see more of those practices return.  I wonder if modern US animal farming would be a safe source of manure, though. The European meat animal process is different than ours in many ways. 

Don’t they use animal manure in USA.  I would be pretty shocked if they don’t. 

It is used here. 

[Jean in Newcastle]

5 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Don’t they use animal manure in USA.  I would be pretty shocked if they don’t. 

It is used here. 

Yes, animal manure is used in the US. 

[Faith-manor]

7 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Have they never been to the country???  Do people seriously move without doing ANY research???

Yes they do. their version of "been to the country" is often going to a national park or something similar. House prices being low here does lure folks away. Our current angry urban dweller bought a house just outside of town across from two farms one of whom raises 30 head of cattle each year. He and his wife came to look back in November 2020, long after harvest season had ended and the cattle had been sold. They did no research, just crazy happy about getting five acres with a nice outbuilding, and a 2000 sq ft single story ranch that they could remodel (mostly only cosmetic stuff, definitely not a flip house or any major renovation) with 3 beds, 2 baths and a porch, back part wooded. Deer came into the yard while they were at the showing. Instant love. Oh my, won't it be wonderful to retire away from the hustle and bustle of the city. Bought without any research.

Current attitudes presented at township board meetings which are met with eye rolls and a "moving along to actual issues" comments from the chair:

They want a zoning ordinance against spreading manure on fields.

They want the two farms re-zoned so no livestock can be kept.

They want zoning ordinances to force more landscaping and HOA style yard maintenance.

They want road kill picked up and moved promptly.

They want ordinances against crop dusting.

They are angry about the millage that supports 4H.

They are angry that the township cannot afford to run city water and sewer eight miles to this little hamlet.

This is not an exhaustive list of their complaints. And this is not unusual. We have had this happen multiple times over the years. They will eventually adjust or sell. The two year mark tends to be the test. So November 2022, they will either stop coming to township meetings and live with it or a sale sign will go up.

[fairfarmhand]

1 hour ago, Sharpie said:

Late to this thread but this is real.  My dh sat down with our crop guy yesterday trying to formulate a plan.  We already had decided no to soybeans and corn is likely only for our personal use.   I'll be interested to see what the big farms do.  This may take out more small farms, they've been on a sharp decline.  

I'm not that involved in it but I did overhear a conversation with the crop insurance guy and forward pricing and what farms have to make to break even on commodities.  It's not pretty.  Hard decisions will have to get made for most farmers. 

1 hour ago, Ting Tang said:

My husband farms, too. Not sure what’s going to happen this year. We’ve heard some things, but my husband doesn’t seem afraid… yet! Somehow things always workout. 

My dh works for a plant making biosolids from wastewater from the city. (100 percent safe, heat treated, EPA approved--not sewage sludge) Demand has never been higher because fertilizer is so high. I'd love to see more cities set up these plants for their sewage. Many places just landfill the waste. 

1 hour ago, Terabith said:

Have they never been to the country???  Do people seriously move without doing ANY research???

yes.

We had neighbors complain about our cows *mooing*

[Ting Tang]

1 hour ago, Faith-manor said:

Yes they do. their version of "been to the country" is often going to a national park or something similar. House prices being low here does lure folks away. Our current angry urban dweller bought a house just outside of town across from two farms one of whom raises 30 head of cattle each year. He and his wife came to look back in November 2020, long after harvest season had ended and the cattle had been sold. They did no research, just crazy happy about getting five acres with a nice outbuilding, and a 2000 sq ft single story ranch that they could remodel (mostly only cosmetic stuff, definitely not a flip house or any major renovation) with 3 beds, 2 baths and a porch, back part wooded. Deer came into the yard while they were at the showing. Instant love. Oh my, won't it be wonderful to retire away from the hustle and bustle of the city. Bought without any research.

Current attitudes presented at township board meetings which are met with eye rolls and a "moving along to actual issues" comments from the chair:

They want a zoning ordinance against spreading manure on fields.

They want the two farms re-zoned so no livestock can be kept.

They want zoning ordinances to force more landscaping and HOA style yard maintenance.

They want road kill picked up and moved promptly.

They want ordinances against crop dusting.

They are angry about the millage that supports 4H.

They are angry that the township cannot afford to run city water and sewer eight miles to this little hamlet.

This is not an exhaustive list of their complaints. And this is not unusual. We have had this happen multiple times over the years. They will eventually adjust or sell. The two year mark tends to be the test. So November 2022, they will either stop coming to township meetings and live with it or a sale sign will go up.

Wow, that is crazy! My husband is on our township planning commission, and it is clear the mission has always been agriculture.  However, having grown up in a very large suburb of Chicago, it is a huge culture shock living in a rural area.  It is not a decision to be made lightly. I only live here because I am married to him, lol. 

[Ting Tang]

4 minutes ago, fairfarmhand said:

My dh works for a plant making biosolids from wastewater from the city. (100 percent safe, heat treated, EPA approved--not sewage sludge) Demand has never been higher because fertilizer is so high. I'd love to see more cities set up these plants for their sewage. Many places just landfill the waste. 

yes.

We had neighbors complain about our cows *mooing*

We paid for our fertilizer already.  But interesting you should mention the biosolids. We pass a huge operation an hour away from us and lovingly refer to it as the "poop farm," lol.  I have faith in our country that we can look for solutions, even if things get tough.  As long as Putin doesn't start a catastrophic war. 

[saraha]

US State Department echoes White House in condemning Russia's "outright lies" on chemical weapons in Ukraine 

From CNN's Jennifer Hansler

The US State Department echoed the White House in condemning what they called the Kremlin’s “outright lies that the United States and Ukraine are conducting chemical and biological weapons activities in Ukraine.”

“As we have said all along, Russia is inventing false pretexts in an attempt to justify its own horrific actions in Ukraine,” spokesperson Ned Price said in a statement Wednesday.

“It is Russia that has active chemical and biological weapons programs and is in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention and Biological Weapons Convention,” he said, adding, “Russia has a track record of accusing the West of the very crimes that Russia itself is perpetrating.”

“These tactics are an obvious ploy by Russia to try to justify further premeditated, unprovoked, and unjustified attacks on Ukraine. We fully expect Russia to continue to double down on these sorts of claims with further unfounded allegations,” Price said.

Like White House press secretary Jen Psaki, Price also noted that they have “also seen [Chinese] officials echo these conspiracy theories.”

 

This is so upsetting, using the US to justify potentially using chemical weapons on Ukraine

[TCB]

Homeschool parent near me posted on FB yesterday that Ukraine was a child trafficking hot spot and the Russian soldiers have rescued lots of the children. And lots of people liked the post. Words fail me. 

[Ting Tang]

Is there any reason to be hopeful in this situation?  Of course, peace talks keep failing---no shocker there.  I just wondered if there is any reason to hope this can end soon.  

Edited March 10, 2022 by Ting Tang

[fairfarmhand]

I'm really wondering the "what next" part of all this. The line from LOTR where Theoden says, "I would not risk open warfare." and the response is "Open warfare is upon you, whether you would risk it or not." comes to my mind. 

Putin has said that he doesn't want NATO next door to him. And if he takes Ukraine, he's moving into an area that has NATO neighbors. So what next? 

Is war already upon us and we're just delaying the inevitable?

[Carol in Cal.]

14 minutes ago, fairfarmhand said:

I'm really wondering the "what next" part of all this. The line from LOTR where Theoden says, "I would not risk open warfare." and the response is "Open warfare is upon you, whether you would risk it or not." comes to my mind. 

Putin has said that he doesn't want NATO next door to him. And if he takes Ukraine, he's moving into an area that has NATO neighbors. So what next? 

Is war already upon us and we're just delaying the inevitable?

I think so.  And the inevitable will be worse, for us and others, the longer we delay.  Not a popular opinion, and I don’t like it myself, but I believe it to be true.

[fairfarmhand]

1 minute ago, Carol in Cal. said:

I think so.  And the inevitable will be worse, for us and others, the longer we delay.  Not a popular opinion, and I don’t like it myself, but I believe it to be true.

I know. And like you, I don't say it in a "YEEHAW! Cowboy up, let's go to war!" attitude. I see it as a grievous thing. 

[regentrude]

47 minutes ago, Ting Tang said:

Is there any reason to be hopeful in this situation?  Of course, peace talks keep failing---no shocker there.  I just wondered if there is any reason to hope this can end soon.  

No. There is no conceivable scenario - short of an assassination or internal coup which both seem very unlikely- that would end this soon.

[bibiche]

1 hour ago, Ting Tang said:

Is there any reason to be hopeful in this situation?  Of course, peace talks keep failing---no shocker there.  I just wondered if there is any reason to hope this can end soon.  

No, there is not. I don’t think anyone ever thought there would be going in. Unless the Ukrainian government had immediately ceded, it was always going to be total devastation and humanitarian disaster, because that’s how Putin operates.

[Sneezyone]

3 hours ago, fairfarmhand said:

I'm really wondering the "what next" part of all this. The line from LOTR where Theoden says, "I would not risk open warfare." and the response is "Open warfare is upon you, whether you would risk it or not." comes to my mind. 

Putin has said that he doesn't want NATO next door to him. And if he takes Ukraine, he's moving into an area that has NATO neighbors. So what next? 

Is war already upon us and we're just delaying the inevitable?

It's possible. I don't, for one, see delay as a bad option. That's hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of adults and kids who won't know war. Better is better. I have a spouse who's likely to be called upon to fight it tho. For many, it's an esoteric, distant, thought exercise.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Sneezyone

[KSera]

1 minute ago, Sneezyone said:

It's possible. I don't for one, see delay as a bad option. That's hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of adults and kids who won't know war. Better is better.

Yeah, it seems an unpopular opinion, but that's where I keep coming down. It feels awful to think of not going in to try to help, but I can't think through any scenario where doing that actually makes things better rather than much, much worse. I just don't see how it helps in the long run 😥.

[prairiewindmomma]

One thought I've had is that they are trying, as best they can, to let civilians evacuate. Ukraine has like 41 million people and only 2 million have left. If Ukraine had ceded immediately, there's a chance Russia could have sealed the borders.  If air strikes and the like start happen, evacuation is going to become more difficult.  Right now, Ukrainian defense is pretty mobile, and they have decent intelligence as to the local situation because they are literally boots on the ground. They can halt their end of things to get people through, and for the most part, fighting is limited to a few key cities. Life gets messier when you are talking about drones, planes/air combat, and the like. 

I don't think our position now is necessarily our position forever. Part of the reason the world has been delaying is that everyone needs to see that what Russia is doing is egregious. Like, India, we're staring at you. I know Modi has called Putin a "dear friend" and I get that India is using its relationship with Russia to balance out China's power, but the silence has been a bit deafening, iykwim. Maybe his membership application to the Autocrat Country Club is still pending? 

[fairfarmhand]

15 minutes ago, Sneezyone said:

It's possible. I don't, for one, see delay as a bad option. That's hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of adults and kids who won't know war. Better is better. I have a spouse who'd be likely to be called upon to fight it tho. For many, it's an esoteric, distant, thought exercise.

That's true. Many Ukranians are evacuating. 

And the other nations now have solid evidence that Putin is a power hungry mad man who wants what he wants and cares nothing about civilians. So that tips the rest of the world off for what is coming. So it's time to invest in military spending. (I can't tell you how much I despise that last sentence. Really.) It's time to prepare ourselves for what is possibly (likely???) coming. Because I suppose one thing that is worse than War is a war that is thrust upon you when you are entirely unprepared for it.

[Pam in CT]

re time is not on Putin's side

24 minutes ago, Sneezyone said:

It's possible. I don't, for one, see delay as a bad option. That's hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of adults and kids who won't know war. Better is better. I have a spouse who'd be likely to be called upon to fight it tho. For many, it's an esoteric, distant, thought exercise.

 

13 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

One thought I've had is that they are trying, as best they can, to let civilians evacuate. Ukraine has like 41 million people and only 2 million have left. If Ukraine had ceded immediately, there's a chance Russia could have sealed the borders.  If air strikes and the like start happen, evacuation is going to become more difficult.  Right now, Ukrainian defense is pretty mobile, and they have decent intelligence as to the local situation because they are literally boots on the ground. They can halt their end of things to get people through, and for the most part, fighting is limited to a few key cities. Life gets messier when you are talking about drones, planes/air combat, and the like. 

I don't think our position now is necessarily our position forever. Part of the reason the world has been delaying is that everyone needs to see that what Russia is doing is egregious. Like, India, we're staring at you. I know Modi has called Putin a "dear friend" and I get that India is using its relationship with Russia to balance out China's power, but the silence has been a bit deafening, iykwim. Maybe his membership application to the Autocrat Country Club is still pending? 

 

6 minutes ago, fairfarmhand said:

That's true. Many Ukranians are evacuating. 

And the other nations now have solid evidence that Putin is a power hungry mad man who wants what he wants and cares nothing about civilians. So that tips the rest of the world off for what is coming. So it's time to invest in military spending. (I can't tell you how much I despise that last sentence. Really.) It's time to prepare ourselves for what is possibly (likely???) coming. Because I suppose one thing that is worse than War is a war that is thrust upon you when you are entirely unprepared for it.

All of this; and also, the sanctions and resulting collapse of the ruble has already imposed a great toll on ordinary Russians (whose fault this isn't); and an unknown number of conscripted Russian kids have already been killed or taken prisoner. The longer the current grinding Waiting Game plays out, the more the word will seep out to Russian families despite the media blackout and tightly controlled press there.

And also, the sanctions impede basic logistics on the Russian war effort like paying salaries, buying fuel for all the trucks and tanks, getting food and supplies out to where they need to be.

 

Short of using nuclear weapons, the next set of tools Putin has in his toolkit are chemical weapons and hybrid weapons like cyberattack on (our) power grids, ATM networks, communications and water systems. If we escalate, *we have to expect* that he will return in kind. I dunno that US compassion for what Ukraine is suffering extends to acceptance of those kinds of consequences.

[Spy Car]

3 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

Short of using nuclear weapons, the next set of tools Putin has in his toolkit are chemical weapons and hybrid weapons like cyberattack on (our) power grids, ATM networks, communications and water systems. If we escalate, *we have to expect* that he will return in kind. I dunno that US compassion for what Ukraine is suffering extends to acceptance of those kinds of consequences.

The weapon Putin has that concerns me the most are the batteries thermobaric missiles. These could be used to "vaporize" cities.

A truly horrifying weapon when used in urban spaces.

Thermobaric missiles batteries rolled in in the first wave of the invasion. I hope they are the number one target of the resistance.

Bill

 

 

[Sneezyone]

11 minutes ago, Spy Car said:

The weapon Putin has that concerns me the most are the batteries thermobaric missiles. These could be used to "vaporize" cities.

A truly horrifying weapon when used in urban spaces.

Thermobaric missiles batteries rolled in in the first wave of the invasion. I hope they are the number one target of the resistance.

Bill

 

 

He’s already deployed/used them.

[prairiewindmomma]

The Economist has a really fascinating article on its website this week called "The Curious Case of Russia's Missing Air Force".  It talks about how some think that Russia has a limited supply of guided munitions, which means that the planes either have to go in low with unguided bombs in order to do precise bombing or they have to drop that same style of bomb from higher altitudes with less precision. Russia bought a ton of modern planes, so one of the things that has had me puzzled has been why they haven't utilized their jets as effectively as one would expect. Do they lack experienced pilots? Do they lack munitions? Like, it's been a total puzzler to me. I've been glad to see journalists start to address this issue.

Edited March 10, 2022 by prairiewindmomma
autocorrect did me wrong--correcting some word choices, and properly capitalizing the article title

[Mom_to3]

1 hour ago, Pam in CT said:

re time is not on Putin's side

 

 

All of this; and also, the sanctions and resulting collapse of the ruble has already imposed a great toll on ordinary Russians (whose fault this isn't); and an unknown number of conscripted Russian kids have already been killed or taken prisoner. The longer the current grinding Waiting Game plays out, the more the word will seep out to Russian families despite the media blackout and tightly controlled press there.

And also, the sanctions impede basic logistics on the Russian war effort like paying salaries, buying fuel for all the trucks and tanks, getting food and supplies out to where they need to be.

 

Short of using nuclear weapons, the next set of tools Putin has in his toolkit are chemical weapons and hybrid weapons like cyberattack on (our) power grids, ATM networks, communications and water systems. If we escalate, *we have to expect* that he will return in kind. I dunno that US compassion for what Ukraine is suffering extends to acceptance of those kinds of consequences.

I agree with much of this. Best case in my opinion for the rest of the world, Russia will ultimately take the Ukraine, and financial sanctions, combined with huge losses of manpower and finance to suppress the local population will prevent them from invading any other country for quite some time. This is not going to be an easy and costless occupation. Putin is 69, so time is not on his side. 

I am surprised Ukraine is holding out. I don't see how this can possibly end well for them. Use of chemical weapons now seems quite likely. If the war escalates into WW3, Ukraine would surely be annihilated.

I did read an opinion piece in a Hong Kong newspaper yesterday that the financial markets have not even come close to incorporate the risks of escalation, let alone the possibility of nuclear weapon use.

[Sneezyone]

15 minutes ago, Mom_to3 said:

I agree with much of this. Best case in my opinion for the rest of the world, Russia will ultimately take the Ukraine, and financial sanctions, combined with huge losses of manpower and finance to suppress the local population will prevent them from invading any other country for quite some time. This is not going to be an easy and costless occupation. Putin is 69, so time is not on his side. 

I am surprised Ukraine is holding out. I don't see how this can possibly end well for them. Use of chemical weapons now seems quite likely. If the war escalates into WW3, Ukraine would surely be annihilated.

I did read an opinion piece in a Hong Kong newspaper yesterday that the financial markets have not even come close to incorporate the risks of escalation, let alone the possibility of nuclear weapon use.

While I don’t agree that Russia can hold Ukraine, I do agree with the markets not pricing in the possibility of a broader conflict. Whether it’s a failure of imagination or ‘they’ have a (unfamiliar to me) foolproof oracle, I know not.

[Pam in CT]

I don't think it's possible to scope out the full range of possible outcomes to this.  There are, for sure, some quickly-world-annihilating possible outcomes; and horrific flattening of Ukraine, expansion of the conflict in predictable (China, Iran, Syria; Poland, Turkey) and wholly unpredictable directions; the US being attacked by extremely disruptive cyberattacks; and catastrophic global famine/ sustained depression are all among the possible dreadful endgames.

I do believe that the survival of Ukraine as a sovereign nation is also among the possible options. 

 

[prairiewindmomma]

Y’all, 69 is not that old in politics years. Our current president is 10 years older than that, 79. The one previous to him is 75. The average age of a US senator currently is 62.9. I know a number of 80 year olds that still ski and ride horses and do stuff. If you stay active, you tend to age well.

An active 69 year old could still raise hell for another 20 years.

[Terabith]

14 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Y’all, 69 is not that old in politics years. Our current president is 10 years older than that, 79. The one previous to him is 75. The average age of a US senator currently is 62.9. I know a number of 80 year olds that still ski and ride horses and do stuff. If you stay active, you tend to age well.

An active 69 year old could still raise hell for another 20 years.

And Putin, for all of his many, many, many flaws, has always been physically fit.  

[Pam in CT]

re chronological age: old is as old does

3 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Y’all, 69 is not that old in politics years. Our current president is 10 years older than that, 79. The one previous to him is 75. The average age of a US senator currently is 62.9. I know a number of 80 year olds that still ski and ride horses and do stuff. If you stay active, you tend to age well.

An active 69 year old could still raise hell for another 20 years.

True. The wildcard issue with Putin appears not to be his chronological age as much as the possibility of physical or mental illness. In recent pictures his face seems (?) to be weirdly puffy; and there have been a great deal of well-sourced reports that he's become increasingly isolated, physically and emotionally, from friends & family & advisors. There's a long piece in the NYT today about how over the last couple of years, perhaps in response to COVID, he's reduced the circle of people he comes any closer than this

down to a mere handful of people:

Quote

 

..Mr. Putin spent the spring and summer of 2020 quarantining at his residence in Valdai ...he was accompanied there by Yuri Kovalchuk. Mr. Kovalchuk, who is the largest shareholder in Rossiya Bank and controls several state-approved media outlets, has been Mr. Putin’s close friend and trusted adviser since the 1990s. But by 2020, according to my sources, he had established himself as the de facto second man in Russia, the most influential among the president’s entourage.

Mr. Kovalchuk...is an ideologue, subscribing to a worldview that combines Orthodox Christian mysticism, anti-American conspiracy theories and hedonism. This appears to be Mr. Putin’s worldview, too. Since the summer of 2020, Mr. Putin and Mr. Kovalchuk have been almost inseparable, and the two of them have been making plans together to restore Russia’s greatness.

 

According to people with knowledge {Mr. Putin]... has completely lost interest in the present: The economy, social issues, the coronavirus pandemic, these all annoy him. Instead, he and Mr. Kovalchuk obsess over the past. ...In his mind, Mr. Putin finds himself in a unique historical situation in which he can finally recover for the previous years of humiliation. In the 1990s, when Mr. Putin and Mr. Kovalchuk first met, they were both struggling to find their footing after the fall of the Soviet Union, and so was the country. The West, they believe, took advantage of Russia’s weakness to push NATO as close as possible to the country’s borders. In Mr. Putin’s view, the situation today is the opposite: It is the West that’s weak. ...

It seems that there is no one around to tell him otherwise. Mr. Putin no longer meets with his buddies for drinks and barbecues, according to people who know him. In recent years — and especially since the start of the pandemic — he has cut off most contacts with advisers and friends. While he used to look like an emperor who enjoyed playing on the controversies of his subjects, listening to them denounce one another and pitting them against one another, he is now isolated and distant, even from most of his old entourage.

His guards have imposed a strict protocol: No one can see the president without a week’s quarantine — not even Igor Sechin, once his personal secretary, now head of the state-owned oil company Rosneft. Mr. Sechin is said to quarantine for two or three weeks a month, all for the sake of occasional meetings with the president...

...And now here we are. Isolated and under sanctions, alone against the world, Russia looks as though it is being remade in its president’s image. Mr. Putin’s already very tight inner circle will only draw in closer. As the casualties mount in Ukraine, the president appears to be digging in his heels; he says that the sanctions on his country are a “declaration of war.”...

 

 

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-11/russian-dumb-bombs-kill-innocent-ukrainians-queuing-for-food/100900146

[Ausmumof3]

29 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

re chronological age: old is as old does

True. The wildcard issue with Putin appears not to be his chronological age as much as the possibility of physical or mental illness. In recent pictures his face seems (?) to be weirdly puffy; and there have been a great deal of well-sourced reports that he's become increasingly isolated, physically and emotionally, from friends & family & advisors. There's a long piece in the NYT today about how over the last couple of years, perhaps in response to COVID, he's reduced the circle of people he comes any closer than this

down to a mere handful of people:

 

 

 

Recent pictures of him don’t look that well or healthy. I know it’s the obvious question, but long covid impacts? 

[Ausmumof3]

I have a probably dumb question. What was the on the ground situation in Russia like prior to the invasion? I know covid deaths are way up over there again. Some of the apparent interviews we’ve seen with captures Russian soldiers (assuming they are legitimate though it’s hard to verify) they seem quite thin and there is some who were coughing a tonne and unwell. Obviously they’re in a war zone now so presumably under physical pressure but these interviews were from only three or four days in. And of course it could just be Ukrainian propaganda and not reflective of the reality.
 

I guess I’m wondering if the state of affairs in Russia was messy enough that it has driven Putin to this? I know Russia is usually a big wheat producer so it seems unlikely they were facing food shortages but I’m just trying to make sense of what we saw.

Edited March 11, 2022 by Ausmumof3

[prairiewindmomma]

Keep in mind that if he had been in Belarus for some weeks he would have been sleeping rough and likely underfed for quite a while. There were reports (I linked one somewhere in this thread) that they were selling diesel from the tanks for food and liquor even back in Belarus.

Conditions in Russia weren’t awful. The rouble had lost some value since 2014. There wasn’t a robust free media, but the average family was ok economically even if really well paying jobs were a bit scarce. Young and ambitious people often left, but  the remaining weren’t starving, at least according to my Russian friends. (I have Ukrainian friends also with family on both sides of the border, and they concur, so I don’t think I was hearing a glossy version of Russian life.) Honestly, to compare the stories I heard compared to what I hear here of Aus life—Aus seems more challenged.