What do you think next year will look like?

[mommyoffive]

What do you think the next few months will look like?

What do you think next year will look like?

I think I saw on the news last week that the U.s. government thinks we will have enough of a vaccine for every one by March or April.   Is that realistic? Or is that just something that the administration is saying before the election?

Even if there is a vaccine, what does life look like?  Is it life like March 1st, 2020?

[Katy]

Nobody, not even the people working for the pharmaceutical companies knows if the vaccines in development will work, let alone if they give any sort of lasting immunity.  Or if the one the government asked to be pre-produced could be the one to work.  Anyone claiming otherwise likely has a political agenda.

I don't think much will change until this pandemic is over.

[Starr]

We all know that everything takes longer than we plan. Even if there is vaccine enough for the country doesn't mean there is a means to get it distributed equally as fast. Then the uncertainty of the vaccine itself, percentage of folks who take it and other unknowns. I'm not counting on anytime soon.

[Not_a_Number]

I expect things to get a lot more normal by next summer. First of all, I think a vaccine will help. Secondly, we’ll either have another bad COVID season, which will seriously dampen the rate of transmission, or we’ll finally figure the contact tracing out. Or both.

[Roadrunner]

I also think by next summer we will be back to somewhat normal. I believe the vaccine will be available and those of us most vulnerable will be inoculated by then. I hope Fall 2021 will be back in the classroom and we will have a ton of new movie releases about viruses. 

[catz]

Fauci recently did say he thought we'd have wider vaccine availability by March or April recently I believe but he expected it to take a number of months to get through critical mass.  I don't think there is any reason to think he is a talking head for the current administration at this point.  Actually I read an article yesterday that talked about different vaccine options and how it might end up confusing people as to what they should try and get with a number likely coming to market and how we could have done phase 3 testing differently so it would be more easy to directly compare.   Even a 50% affective vaccine could make a huge difference in spread, severity, hospitalizations, etc.  80% of phase 3 vaccine trials go to market so I do think there is reason to think we will get something.  Now that doesn't mean our first vaccines are going to be home runs and we might not have something much better in a number of years.  

How many people recover covid between now and general population vaccination will likely affect how fast we will see impact from a vaccine.

I expect the next few months to be more of the same for us.  But I do hope as spring weather rolls in and we can be outside again, that we start a gradual transition to more regular life.  And I'm really crossing fingers for next fall that colleges look much more normal and that my youngest will be able dual enroll (which we decided to put off this fall).  

[almondbutterandjelly]

I can only speak about my little corner of the world in South Texas.  I think masks will be required until most everyone is vaccinated.  I hope that is no later than summer 2021.  I think my church will remain open with masks required.  That is wonderful for my family because it is a huge part of our lives.   I think no more lockdowns except for bars possibly.  I don't drink so I don't care.  I think I will still get curbside grocery pickup because it's so convenient. 

I think dd's college will continue offering mostly online or "blended" classes and not allow any clubs to meet in person.  Dd belongs to a religious college group that meets off-campus because they aren't allowed to meet on-campus, and it has been a true mental health saver.  Blended classes will be once a week at best, masks required and plexiglass and social distancing.  I wonder how many kids will withdraw because this is not the college experience anyone wanted.  But what else are they going to do with their time? 

I hope our numbers get low enough (single digit new cases every day is my personal standard) for me to go back to Yoga at the gym.  I am hoping that happens in the next two or three weeks, but I am not counting on it.  

I think that where I am, things will be not terrible because people are really trying.  Plus our weather is pretty nice in winter and people get outside.  So I am optimistic about the next six months, in my corner of the world.

[regentrude]

I doubt there will be a vaccine before March, and I consider it completely unlikely that there will be a mechanism ready to distrbute a vaccine to everybody in the spring. Just look at what difficulties the US still has making Covid tests available to people who need them. What should make me think they'll be able to roll out a vaccine? (which may possibly need two doses?)

Next year will look like this fall. We will be getting used to it. And people still won't be masking and distancing, so this is going to drag out another year.
Call me jaded - but I see no reason for optimism.

ETA: any predictions about timeline are pure speculation. The people developing the vaccine do not know whether it will work. Any politician claiming to know better is just baseless propaganda.

Edited October 13, 2020 by regentrude

[Not_a_Number]

7 minutes ago, regentrude said:

Next year will look like this fall. We will be getting used to it. And people still won't be masking and distancing, so this is going to drag out another year.
Call me jaded - but I see no reason for optimism.

I'm not even that optimistic, lol. I just think another bad season would cut rates of transmission enough that it might die out on its own. Between the vaccine and the treatments and the quarantine fatigue, I expect things to end. 

[regentrude]

3 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I'm not even that optimistic, lol. I just think another bad season would cut rates of transmission enough that it might die out on its own. Between the vaccine and the treatments and the quarantine fatigue, I expect things to end. 

I was just going to comment on your post and ask what you mean by bad season cutting the rate of transmission. Covid isn't fatal enough for that. It worked for the plague; that died out because there was nobody alive left to infect. But how would a bad Covid season reduce transmission???

ETA: or were you thinking enough people would acquire immunity? Is there any evidence that immunity lasts?

Edited October 13, 2020 by regentrude

[gardenmom5]

I'm sorry I didn't' save it, and now can't find it . . . I hope it's NOT . . . 

a picture of two waves.  one is labeled 2020.  and even bigger one is labeled 2021. . . . . 

[Not_a_Number]

3 minutes ago, regentrude said:

I was just going to comment on your post and ask what you mean by bad season cutting the rate of transmission. Covid isn't fatal enough for that. It worked for the plague; that died out because there was nobody alive left to infect. But how would a bad Covid season reduce transmission???

ETA: or were you thinking enough people would acquire immunity? Is there any evidence that immunity lasts?

I would assume immunity at least lasts long enough that having most people infected cuts transmission. I have no idea how long it actually lasts and that might very well depend on how severe the infection was.  

It's just a guess, though 🙂 . You're right that we don't know. But so far, reinfection seems rare enough that every case of reinfection gets reported in the press, so it doesn't seem super common. 

[Not_a_Number]

3 minutes ago, gardenmom5 said:

I'm sorry I didn't' save it, and now can't find it . . . I hope it's NOT . . . 

a picture of two waves.  one is labeled 2020.  and even bigger one is labeled 2021. . . . . 

I expect this season to be brutal. I really do. That's why we're still staying home. But I do expect this to be the end. I could, of course, be wrong. 

[Arcadia]

My husband’s employer is prepared for them to be working from home until August 2021 so we are expecting school to be mostly online until Fall 2021. 

If there is a vaccine for the masses by April, I think it would be similar to how the flu vaccine rolls out. Mandatory for healthcare workers and students but others might wait and see. 

[BusyMom5]

I'm expecting rates to continue upward until March, possibly later.  I do expect my family will get it between now and then, even with masking and lowering our contacts.  I'm not ready to write off Disney for 2021, but as long as face masks are necessary or required, we will not go going to any touristy places.  I'm hoping by next summer rates will go down and families can see loved ones in the hospital or nursing homes (masked and limited, but at least be able to visit).   I see May as the earliest,  but that leave so many that will not see loved ones again.   Of all the issues Covid has caused, this one is the worst!

[SKL]

I refuse to think about it.  There's nothing I can do about it, and dwelling on things I can't change just makes things worse.

We'll get through it, just like we've gotten through so many other things.  That's as far as I'll go.

[Not_a_Number]

10 minutes ago, SKL said:

I refuse to think about it.  There's nothing I can do about it, and dwelling on things I can't change just makes things worse.

So, personally, it’s been helpful for me to plan how to live in this world 🙂 . But I’m a planner in general.

[prairiewindmomma]

Bad winter, peaking Covid mid-January to mid-February, gradual resolution into spring. 
 

I think it will be more of the same.

I think there will be some roll-out of a vaccine next year but we don’t know long term efficacy on any of it.

I suspect we are working into a new “normal”. Local schools and large employers are continuing their distance plans here. Relatives in other states are living their normal lives with masks on. Statistically speaking, they have had double the deaths and triple the cases per capita in their state. I don’t see these trends changing unless behaviors change.

[SKL]

12 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

So, personally, it’s been helpful for me to plan how to live in this world 🙂 . But I’m a planner in general.

Yeah, I'm a planner too.  Which is why this exercise doesn't work for me.

[Not_a_Number]

4 minutes ago, SKL said:

Yeah, I'm a planner too.  Which is why this exercise doesn't work for me.

Because it’s too unpredictable?

[regentrude]

18 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

So, personally, it’s been helpful for me to plan how to live in this world 🙂 . But I’m a planner in general.

that's the hardest part for me with the pandemic. I am a planner, too, but there is insufficient information to be able to plan anything.

I also hate being disappointed. So I am afraid to plan for anything, because there's a good chance it will end up not happening like pretty much everything I had planned for this year. (I have a hard time thinking about it without being bitter)

[SKL]

4 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Because it’s too unpredictable?

Because when you plan, you get yourself invested in what is supposed to happen.  That adds to the psychological cost when everything gets changed up every day.

The usual benefits of planning - reducing uncertainty / surprises, automating things so you don't have to put as much cerebral energy into them every time, etc - do not apply to this year, at least not for me, with my kids in activities that change unpredicably from day to day.  And as an owner of small businesses that are highly impacted by fears and government rules about Covid.

If there was ever a year for "one day at a time," this is it.

[SKL]

3 minutes ago, regentrude said:

that's the hardest part for me with the pandemic. I am a planner, too, but there is insufficient information to be able to plan anything.

I also hate being disappointed. So I am afraid to plan for anything, because there's a good chance it will end up not happening like pretty much everything I had planned for this year. (I have a hard time thinking about it without being bitter)

Exactly.  All those 8th grade milestones that were supposed to be so special.  Poof, one after the other.  I'm not gonna do that again.

[Not_a_Number]

That’s why I’ve basically planned for staying home — I can control that and make it as good as possible. We thought about doing something different and it was all too hard.

[stephanier.1765]

To me it feels like The Song that Doesn't End. More of the same forever and ever and ever and ever...I'm not anticipating getting back to the life we led ever or ever or ever or ever...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xz6OGVCdov8

[kristin0713]

I don't think another "wave" will be anything like what we saw here in the NY/NJ area back in March and April.  The first person that I knew personally to contract covid was dead within two weeks and the next one, who indirectly exposed my sister/niece/parents, also died within two weeks. Anyone that I have heard of in the past month has recovered.  I haven't heard that anyone in the recent outbreak related to Trump is in critical condition.  So I think that indicates that even if it is still spreading, the treatments are working, the doctors have more of a handle on it and options for treatment, and it is much, much less of a threat.  Now, what the states decide to do as far as restrictions, mask mandates, etc., obviously there is no way to know. I think the election results might play a role in that but again, who knows.  I'm thankful that we are able to live a pretty normal life right now, even if it means avoiding crowds and wearing a mask in public. 

[mathnerd]

4 hours ago, Katy said:

Nobody, not even the people working for the pharmaceutical companies knows if the vaccines in development will work, let alone if they give any sort of lasting immunity.  Or if the one the government asked to be pre-produced could be the one to work.  Anyone claiming otherwise likely has a political agenda.

I don't think much will change until this pandemic is over.

I agree with all of what you said. Nothing will change drastically until the end of 2021. Most vaccine makers will come out with products for the masses in early 2021 but it will take them a lot longer to tweak the formulae until results are favorable and they can produce long term immunity.

Some big local employers (who employ several tens of thousands of employees) have told their workers to expect to work from home until Fall or the end of 2021, which aligns more with my thoughts on how next year will go. Many people in my high COL have moved temporarily for a year to lower COL areas because they don't need to get into an office for a long while. I think that we are going to see a nationwide peak after Thanksgiving break and then cases will trend down over January. All of this is speculation, obviously ...

[slackermom]

I told my teen to expect another full year of masking and waiting it out, then a year of vaccine plus masking, before we have any hope of dampening the outbreak significantly.

For us that means very limited outside activities, and online dual enrollment classes again next year. The online classes kind of work ok for us for now, as my teen will likely be able to complete high school requirements and also get an AA during that time frame. Then the hope is to transfer as a junior to the state university for in-person classes in the fall of 2022.

[Guest]

I don’t think things will look normal-ish until summer 2021 at the most hopeful soonest. I think any talk about functioning, distributable vaccines before mid-2021 is political agenda and may be irresponsible to even say/promote. 

I think, even if we change administrations, a new leader cannot easily reverse the chaotic messaging we have received throughout 2020. People who do not want the administration to change are also the more likely to not comply, so I expect that resistance to get worse before it gets better. 

I hope we will not have a million American deaths before CoVid fades into the background of American life, but I think that is more possible than I would have imagined in March. 

[Not_a_Number]

1 hour ago, kristin0713 said:

I don't think another "wave" will be anything like what we saw here in the NY/NJ area back in March and April.  The first person that I knew personally to contract covid was dead within two weeks and the next one, who indirectly exposed my sister/niece/parents, also died within two weeks. Anyone that I have heard of in the past month has recovered.  I haven't heard that anyone in the recent outbreak related to Trump is in critical condition.  So I think that indicates that even if it is still spreading, the treatments are working, the doctors have more of a handle on it and options for treatment, and it is much, much less of a threat.  Now, what the states decide to do as far as restrictions, mask mandates, etc., obviously there is no way to know. I think the election results might play a role in that but again, who knows.  I'm thankful that we are able to live a pretty normal life right now, even if it means avoiding crowds and wearing a mask in public. 

I keep hearing about treatments working and that's just not right. Eventually, yes, treatments will work. But the reason everyone who got tested before was really sick was that it was practically impossible to get tested. So everyone who was sick at home didn't even get recorded. 

Antibody testing suggest that a fifth of all New Yorkers got infected! A fifth. Think about how many positive tests that would have been, if we'd have been keeping track. 

Last I heard, the IFR was still about the same. Plan accordingly. 

Edited October 13, 2020 by Not_a_Number

[Ottakee]

My thoughts is that we will end up going remote learning....possibly after Thanksgiving break or after Christmas break....at least for a few weeks.   Then again, I never expected we would make it 7 weeks of in person learning with zero cases....we all thought we would be remote after 2-3 weeks.

 

Then I see us going back to class with masks and all of our limitations for the rest of this school year.

My hope and dream is that by fall 2021 we can have class with maybe no masks in the classroom but wearing them in general public.  Public transportation fully running but with masks, and us allowed to put more than 3 in an 8 passenger van for school.

Like I said, I am surprised we have made it this far with in person learning.  I teach young adult with cognitive impairments (some also have ASD) ages 18-26.   We have 5 classrooms in our building and so far between about 48 students and 16 staff we have had zero cases.

[Corraleno]

I'm cautiously optimistic that things will start getting back to normal (or normal-ish) by next fall, and that schools will be back to live classes by then. I know that DS's school is planning for spring semester to be exactly like fall semester, with nearly all classes online and a few hybrid classes that can switch to fully online if necessary. I'm sure they will continue all the requirements for masking, distancing, weekly testing, etc. The big question will be whether they have the confidence to schedule in-person classes for fall semester when registration happens in March. Athletic training/competition is one area that I don't have a clue about, because so much depends on what the IOC decides about Tokyo next summer. I'm sure there will be a ton of pressure to push forward with that, because postponing it another year would put the summer & winter games in the same year, and I'm sure the IOC doesn't want to deal with that. But with billions of dollars at stake I fear they'll postpone the decision as late as possible, which will force the governing bodies of all the affected sports to resume national and international competitions as early as January, which seems totally insane. But it's not like people can just wait until April or May to start training and competing to be ready for July.   If DS's sport does resume national competitions in January (as they currently claim), then he is going to have some very tough decisions to make. 😞 

I think the biggest questions for me personally would be whether we are able to visit my ailing 85 yr old MIL in the UK, who is desperate to see the kids, and whether our trip to Spain, which was postponed from last May to May 2021, gets postponed another year, or bumped to later in the summer, or gets refunded, or what. I'm hoping they just refund it and maybe reschedule for 2022 or 2023, because I can't imagine that I will feel comfortable traveling in May, even if a vaccine is available by then. The thought of never seeing my MILL again makes me really sad though. 😥

Edited October 13, 2020 by Corraleno

[Corraleno]

oy, did it again!

Edited October 13, 2020 by Corraleno
can't remember where the bloody edit button is!

[TravelingChris]

4 hours ago, Arcadia said:

My husband’s employer is prepared for them to be working from home until August 2021 so we are expecting school to be mostly online until Fall 2021. 

If there is a vaccine for the masses by April, I think it would be similar to how the flu vaccine rolls out. Mandatory for healthcare workers and students but others might wait and see. 

I was reading in Sunday's paper that working from home is going to be the new normal at least part of the time.  I think it was Cisco Co.  that did a study on major employers and 90% were expecting at least 25% of time working at home--- regardless of any epidemic.

[Katy]

I don't really expect a vaccine will work.

If natural immunity lasts less than 60 days according to the most recent American confirmed to be re-infected by the CDC, then why would a vaccine be more effective than the actual infection?  Most vaccines don't work nearly as well as infections.

If we had a more or less nationwide shutdown and universal masking for 8 weeks I imagine it would be 90% gone, but I don't imagine anyone is up for that.  Heck, we had people arrested for planning to start a civil war over state wide shut downs and masking requirements.  

I honestly don't see how this can possibly settle down with POTUS claiming it's nothing, that getting it was a blessing.

I've heard a few people speculate that POTUS will get it again, and as with others who are re-infected, the second round will be much worse than the first.

[TravelingChris]

I have no idea when my dh or my 2 dds will go back to work in person.  I have no idea if there are any plans.  I think dd1 says that she is out till Jan at the earliest.  She actually has a lot more work to do at home.  As to dh, he gets phone calls, emails and texts every week or so how somebody in his multi thousands building or even more has come down with COVID.

 

We went on 2 vacations so far with COVID and both were fine.  But I am much more wary about going on vacations in the later fall and winter.

As to church, I will be doing online for the duration.  

 

It is starting to get dark earlier and light later and I think I have to get the light thing back from DH and start using it.  Otherwise my SADD will be even worse than normal.

[catz]

I don't have a ton of time at the moment and I don't want to divert this thread too much, but I read articles on the vaccine science almost daily and have been following that progress very closely.    It is actually not that unusual for vaccines to be able to trigger a stronger immune response than an actual infection.  One off cases of re-infection, especially in those who had minor cases, does not necessarily mean a vaccine couldn't produce a longer t-cell immune response.  Leading epidemiologists generally are saying they think we will have a vaccine in 2021 and think there is reason for optimism.  And again, that doesn't mean we won't have  a better one over time that leads to a better immune response or that people will choose to get it or that we may not see delays.  Like the Johnson&Johnson phase 3 study was just paused, but seeing pauses during these studies isn't unusual.  

This is a decent basic article on the science end 

https://theconversation.com/why-a-vaccine-can-provide-better-immunity-than-an-actual-infection-145476

Local infections seem very tied to get togethers, bars, etc at the moment.  I just read an article about 50-some weddings in our state being sources of outbreaks in the last few months.  Plenty of people are not masking or taking precautions out there despite the mandates.  I'm seeing very little enforcement.  I personally think plenty of people have said screw it already and they are driving higher numbers where we are.  

[Arcadia]

47 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

I was reading in Sunday's paper that working from home is going to be the new normal at least part of the time.  I think it was Cisco Co.  that did a study on major employers and 90% were expecting at least 25% of time working at home--- regardless of any epidemic.

Before COVID, it was already common for some employers to let employees work from home 2 to 3 times a week and come to office on alternate days. 

My husband has to go back to office from time to time even now and they have an online employee scheduling form for their department so that it is only one person in one large area at a time. 

[cjzimmer1]

The 1918 pandemic last 2-3 years if I'm remembering correctly.  Yes we have better medical technology now but we also have a lot more people and a lot more people spending time inside tightly closed buildings, so I think these kinda cancel each other out.  So vaccine or no (personally I don't really think it will work), I'm thinking it will be 2022 before this thing burns itself out enough that everyday life doesn't need to be so limited. 

[kristin0713]

2 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

I keep hearing about treatments working and that's just not right.

I don't see how this can be true if the deaths are not anywhere near where they were initially.  Or are people not sick enough to need "treatments"?  I have not heard of anyone personally that I know or know of dying of covid in months.  Back in March, I signed up for NJ.com coronavirus text alerts and it was day after day of hundreds of new cases and a grim death toll through about May.  Since then, it's been mostly news reports about the reopening, etc. but almost everyday there was something.  Now for the first time ever, there was a stretch from Friday 9/25 until today of NO text alerts of any sort.  The alert today said 993 more positive tests; the article said "but the state's daily new deaths have remained flat".  

[Not_a_Number]

16 minutes ago, kristin0713 said:

I don't see how this can be true if the deaths are not anywhere near where they were initially.  Or are people not sick enough to need "treatments"?  I have not heard of anyone personally that I know or know of dying of covid in months.  Back in March, I signed up for NJ.com coronavirus text alerts and it was day after day of hundreds of new cases and a grim death toll through about May.  Since then, it's been mostly news reports about the reopening, etc. but almost everyday there was something.  Now for the first time ever, there was a stretch from Friday 9/25 until today of NO text alerts of any sort.  The alert today said 993 more positive tests; the article said "but the state's daily new deaths have remained flat".  

The deaths where aren't anywhere near they were initially? In a place like NY/NJ that's because there are way FEWER daily cases. We're COUNTING more daily cases, but that's just increased testing access. 

[Not_a_Number]

33 minutes ago, cjzimmer1 said:

The 1918 pandemic last 2-3 years if I'm remembering correctly.  Yes we have better medical technology now but we also have a lot more people and a lot more people spending time inside tightly closed buildings, so I think these kinda cancel each other out.  So vaccine or no (personally I don't really think it will work), I'm thinking it will be 2022 before this thing burns itself out enough that everyday life doesn't need to be so limited. 

Two years, and that's without a vaccine 🙂 . I'm estimating 1.5 years here, lol, so it's not like I'm suggesting something wildly optimistic... 

[mommyoffive]

9 hours ago, FuzzyCatz said:

Fauci recently did say he thought we'd have wider vaccine availability by March or April recently I believe but he expected it to take a number of months to get through critical mass.  I don't think there is any reason to think he is a talking head for the current administration at this point.  Actually I read an article yesterday that talked about different vaccine options and how it might end up confusing people as to what they should try and get with a number likely coming to market and how we could have done phase 3 testing differently so it would be more easy to directly compare.   Even a 50% affective vaccine could make a huge difference in spread, severity, hospitalizations, etc.  80% of phase 3 vaccine trials go to market so I do think there is reason to think we will get something.  Now that doesn't mean our first vaccines are going to be home runs and we might not have something much better in a number of years.  

How many people recover covid between now and general population vaccination will likely affect how fast we will see impact from a vaccine.

I expect the next few months to be more of the same for us.  But I do hope as spring weather rolls in and we can be outside again, that we start a gradual transition to more regular life.  And I'm really crossing fingers for next fall that colleges look much more normal and that my youngest will be able dual enroll (which we decided to put off this fall).  

Oh good that Fauci said that.  I hadn't heard that.

[cjzimmer1]

1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

Two years, and that's without a vaccine 🙂 . I'm estimating 1.5 years here, lol, so it's not like I'm suggesting something wildly optimistic... 

At first I was thinking about a year and half as well except that would have put things heading into winter and lots more indoor time for people and figured that would probably push it out a few more months.

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, kristin0713 said:

I don't see how this can be true if the deaths are not anywhere near where they were initially.  Or are people not sick enough to need "treatments"?  I have not heard of anyone personally that I know or know of dying of covid in months.  Back in March, I signed up for NJ.com coronavirus text alerts and it was day after day of hundreds of new cases and a grim death toll through about May.  Since then, it's been mostly news reports about the reopening, etc. but almost everyday there was something.  Now for the first time ever, there was a stretch from Friday 9/25 until today of NO text alerts of any sort.  The alert today said 993 more positive tests; the article said "but the state's daily new deaths have remained flat".  

I think in the early outbreaks the death rate looked much higher because you weren’t testing or detecting all the cases.  Outcomes are getting somewhat better due to more knowledge (dexamethasone, proning, sometimes not intubating as early I think?, and possibly due to masks meaning lower viral roads). But I think the bigger difference is that you have more testing which means picking up more mild or asymptomatic cases.  
 

that’s how I’d read it anyway.  The virus itself hadn’t mutated to a less deadly version.

[Ausmumof3]

There’s so much “it depends”.  Russia has gone ahead with a vaccine that hasn’t passed phase three trials and they’re still having a second wave.

from what Norman Swann said earlier in the year about the number of vaccines going into phase three trials we should most likely expect at least two to get through.  But it will depend which ones. If it’s the Pfizer one distribution will be more complicated because it needs more special handling.  Most governments are really working on building up distribution capacity for vaccination.  Making sure there are enough people trained to administer it etc.  
 

it will also depends on effectiveness.  Many of the vaccines are only around 60pc effective if I understand it right.  For herd immunity you might need 60 pc so 100pc of people to vaccinate for that to work.  And some of the vaccines only reduce or prevent symptoms not prevent spread.  So they can help with health care workers and vulnerable people not getting as sick but may not produce herd immunity at all.  Then we might need extra testing etc to show that they’re actually safe for people with underlying health conditions to be vaccinated.

 

the only other thing I can see being a significant game changer is if there was a really effective treatment.  The monoclonal antibody treatment seemed quite hopeful but is apparently really expensive and hard to treat.  And one of the companies trial paused today for some reason not sure which yet.

So basically I would plan for the next six months to be disrupted and strange.   There may be a miracle but I wouldn’t count on it at all.

The other thing that might help is if countries tried a mass testing and isolating model like China.  Each time they have a small outbreak they have basically locked down and tested the whole city.  Currently they are testing Qingdao with 9,000,000 people.   On the flip side it’s China and lots of journalists have left so we don’t really know for sure about anything.  But it seems like this mass testing model works and could be trialled elsewhere.

[SKL]

10 hours ago, Arcadia said:

Before COVID, it was already common for some employers to let employees work from home 2 to 3 times a week and come to office on alternate days. 

My husband has to go back to office from time to time even now and they have an online employee scheduling form for their department so that it is only one person in one large area at a time. 

I've been working less than 50% "in office" since at least 2005.  (It's been essentially100% since 2008.)  I could see many jobs being effectively done at home, provided there is sufficient accountability for those who need it.

For those of us used to working at home, the challenge is having the kids here all day also, with the working parent being considered responsible for making full-time education (x # of kids) happen.

I would not be surprised if they continue the work at home policies long after kids go back to 5-day-in-person school.  After all, office spaces are more likely to contain individuals who are at higher risk of severe Covid cases.

[Soror]

I like to plan too and this is a exercise in depression. I hope there is at least a little normalcy by next summer. I hope we have a lot less uncertainty and change next fall. College being more online is a BIG advantage to dh as it cuts his commuting, I hope that continues as more of an option, just not mandated for all. I just keep telling my kids we'll have to wait and see what happens because that is the truth, too much we don't know.

[Hannah]

Its spring here and the curve on our first wave is flattening.  We've been in a state of national disaster since mid-March with various levels of lockdown - which have included severe limitations on movement, economic activity, social gatherings, alcohol bans, cigarette bans, etc. 

Masking, sanitizing and social distancing in all public spaces have been mandatory all along.   We are now at level 1 (the lowest level) which limits international travel (no tourists from high risk countries including the USA), there is a midnight to 4am curfew, limits to numbers at gatherings (ie no spectators at sporting events, <100 people at funerals, etc), alcohol sales limited to weekdays from 9am to 5pm, etc.  

I expect that my younger daughter will continue going to school as she does now - they have strict screening protocols upon arrival, wear masks all day and have to follow social distancing rules.  They have been back since the beginning of July (so 4 months) and there have been no infections of staff or students.  There have been positive parents who then immediately isolated their family.

My older daughter's university has switched to online classes.  Much as she is longing to go back to campus for the new year which starts in February, I don't know that it will be allowed.  At the moment the university is allowing only students who need practical experience (ie medical faculty who work in state hospitals) and laboratory experience on campus.  We are holding off finding accommodation for next year, which is risky, but I don't want to pay another contract that we don't use for a year.  We hope that they will make announcements in this regard soon.

Dh and I have been working from home since March.  The current plan is to return to the office in January, but I think this will be extended as well.  It will all depend on the 2nd wave numbers.

We are planning to visit my parents in December, but are driving instead of risking flying and are staying mostly with family.  They live about 12 hours drive from us.  

[Pam in CT]

re timeline of vaccine - I'm starting to think in terms of a probability/decision tree, with three key junctures: the 1. the outcome of the US election; 2. Which of the multiple vaccine development efforts under way ultimately turn out to work, and particularly if the "winning" vaccine ends up being one of the several being developed in the US or one of the several being developed under the WHO research umbrella; and 3 (which is related to 2). the logistical and supply issues required to get the vaccine up to scale for deployment across the US and -- to let us all travel again, if that's part of our "getting back to normal" -- the world.

I wish I could actually sketch out a decision/probablility tree, but the gist of how each of those three factors will affect the timeline is:

1. Who wins the US election: Our national leadership will affect both the other essential junctures: the US ability to access an effective vaccine if the "best" one turns out to be one of the efforts under the WHO umbrella (item 2); and also a host of deployment issues wound up in item 3):the willingness/ability to deploy national resources to issues including how the vaccine is prices (should it be a profit-making venture?  or a public health measure?), how it is manufactured (wholly distributed on a commercial basis? or according to some sort of emergency power), how supply challenges like very specialized cold storage/ very short shelf life of vaccine elements be managed logistically.... and, crucially, the degree of confidence Americans have in the vaccine. All of these will be critical to the length of time between "Yay! An effective vaccine exists" and "most folks in the US have their lives mostly back in most dimension."  Who we elect will affect BOTH what vaccines we have early access to (item 2) and ALSO how quickly/effectively it can be adopted at scaled.
2. Whether the vaccine that turns out to be the one that "works" best is WHO or US-based -- Under the current administration, we've pulled out of WHO. So if the most promising vaccine happens to emerge out of the WHO-funded research efforts, the US will not be in line -- let alone in the front of the line -- in terms of getting that vaccine through our regulatory authorities, having existing medical providers who've already been participating in the trials, existing manufacturing partners who've been producing trial-size quantities, existing public health or commercial financial arrangements. Which isn't to say the US wouldn't eventually get access to a vaccine developed in, say, Oxford University -- we would. But so long as we're not in the WHO and that network of science consortia, it will take longer, perhaps much longer.  And given the general disinclination of current administration to concede misjudgment/ turn around, it seems unlikely that the current POTUS would be willing concede the science and repair the relationship fences quickly were one of the WHO vaccines to emerge as the best one. Eventually, yes -- commercial interests of US pharmas and public health-focused states would prevail, and private sector firms and health-focused states would start to cut their own access. But that would take immeasurably longer in step (3) below. So which vaccine "wins" matters too.
3. Deployment challenges. Some of these are specific to which vaccine "wins" -- a handful of the ones under have very specific and difficult supply chain logistics (need EXTREMELY cold temperatures or EXTREMELY short time intervals between the moment they come off the bench and get into a human, need greater medical expertise to administer than a simple jab).  Some of them are matters of ideology/ public policy: should COVID vaccine IP be held by a private company making private profits off the deployment, or "open" to get it out as far and wide and quickly as possible; should national deployment resources be used vs left to the states; should there be vaccine mandates for certain professions/certain types of congregant living/ public schools/ other at either the federal or state levels. Others are just general logistics -- getting the right quantities to the right places with sufficient medical professionals to administer. And of course the Elephant in the Room: how much public confidence and willingness to get it.

So much as I want to say to myself: "March 2021, or August 2021, or December 2021... you can hang on that long," there are too many variables. The election juncture is imminent, and once we're on the other side of that (and I'll be better able to gauge whether we're on the more optimistic side of the ranges of items 2 and 3, vs the "we're doomed if the best effort turns out to be WHO-derived" and "deployment will be all up to the individual states and private company profit objectives" side of the range of items 2 and 4...)

... no estimates at all on possible timelines.

 

Edited October 14, 2020 by Pam in CT
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